{"id": "njIsNltHOS7eR4ZUgaXX", "question": "Will a New York sports team win a championship by the end of the 2025 sports season?", "background": "This market will resolve YES if one of the following major New York metropolitan area-based teams wins their respective championship by the conclusion of the 2025 NFL season (Latest Feb 9, 2026 \u2013 Super Bowl 60)\n\nNew York Mets \u2013  World Series \n\nNew York Yankees \u2013 World Series\n\nNew York Giants \u2013 Super Bowl\n\nNew York Jets \u2013 Super Bowl \n\nNew York Red Bulls \u2013 MLS Cup or Leagues Cup\n\nNew York City FC \u2013 MLS Cup or Leagues Cup\n\nNew York Nets \u2013 NBA Final\n\nNew York Knicks \u2013 NBA Final\n\nNew York Rangers \u2013 Stanley Cup\n\nNew York Islanders \u2013 Stanley Cup\n\nThe two New York football teams, although not physically based in the NY Metropolitan area, will be considered New York teams for the purpose of the market. \n\nOther small-market teams, such as the WNBA's NY Liberty, MLR New York Rugby, or NLL Lacrosse will not be counted.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "YVmNKSXBBxo2I3DXL3ge", "question": "Will Manchester City win the 2024/25 Premier League?", "background": "Will resolve based on the Premier League's official announcement of which team is the winner of the 2024/25 season.\n\nhttps://www.premierleague.com/", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5XPX94l5MEPEdlRYoYvn", "question": "Will an SEC school win the 2024-25 CFP National Championship?", "background": "SEC refers to the Southeastern Conference, CFP is the Division I FBS College Football Playoff.\n\nThe teams include Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0587u5Mk7ng2NaOkgCu1", "question": "Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?", "background": "Top-10 players to be determined by https://www.espn.com/tennis/rankings, or other official rankings list.\n\nA \"televised match\" consists of either a conventional TV broadcast or a youtube video with over 100k views.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "j77xsrAcelYkOAdy4Tz7", "question": "Will Joel Embiid finish his career with 2 or more regular season MVPs?", "background": "", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "mJEq1SbuIVP9PBJrspof", "question": "Will there be a \"low scorigami\" before 2030?", "background": "In the original scorigami video, Jon Bois also coins the term \"low scorigami\", to describe a scorigami where both teams score 15 points or fewer. He then showcases the most recent case of low scorigami at the time, a 2011 49ers-Bengals game that ended 13-8. Since the video was published in 2016, while there have been many new scorigami, there have been no low scorigami. With only one low scorigami in the entire 2010s, will this decade see even a single instance of it?\n\nThis market resolves YES if an NFL game ends with a final score that has never occurred before in which both teams score 15 points or fewer before January 1st, 2030. I will use https://nflscorigami.com/ for resolution, or another reliable source if the site no longer exists.\n\n ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "4fPq6PiY40SUrZGL7cb5", "question": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?", "background": "This question resolves as YES if Magnus Carlsen, the Classical World Chess Champion as of 2022, participates either in: \n\n(1) An event, such as a candidates tournament, which is primarily intended to select the next contender for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship.\n\n(2) Or Carlsen otherwise is a challenger for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship.\n\nCriteria and clarifications. \n\nIf Carlsen competes in a tournament or tournaments which are qualification events for a candidates tournament, then that does not count as competing for the world championship. For example, if winning first place in the Sinquefield Cup earns the winner a spot in the candidates tournament, then participating in the Sinquefield Cup does not count as competing for the world championship. But if Carlsen wins first place at the Sinquefield Cup and opts to participate in the candidates tournament, then this question will resolve as YES. The Sinquefield Cup does not count as a world championship competition because its chief reason for existing is not to serve as a WCC selection event.\n\nThe official World Classical Chess Championship is the WCC contest administered by FIDE (or FIDE's successor if it should cease to exist as the main governing body of international chess competitions). Under these terms, Fischer's last match against Spassky and Kasparov's championships after the Kasparov-Short competition do not count as FIDE Classical World Chess Championships. ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "qHvlpClQ3NOnS3yD46oB", "question": "F1 2024 - Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of George Russell in the WDC?", "background": "The 2024 F1 season kicks off this week - the first race is the Bahrain Grand Prix on Saturday 2nd March.\n\nThis will be Lewis Hamilton's last season with Mercedes as he has announced that he will be leaving for Ferrari next year. Will he beat his teammate George Russell in the drivers' championship in their final season together?\n\nNotes:\n\nThis market will go by the official WDC rankings. If the two drivers are tied on points, WDC positions are decided on countback (ie. most wins is used as a tiebreaker, then most second places, etc).\n\nIf one of the two drivers withdraws, moves team during the season, leaves the sport or misses races for any reason at all, the market will still resolve as normal to the driver who is ahead in the WDC.\n\nThe market will resolve early if one driver is so far ahead that the other driver can't beat them even if they get maximum points for the rest of the season.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "wRkw1ZsHuBFpmocjHq73", "question": "Will the Philadelphia 76ers or Philadelphia Eagles win a championship by 2028?", "background": "Market will resolve YES if the Eagles or 76ers win a championship by 2028, will resolve N/A if both teams relocate to another city for whatever reason.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG", "question": "Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?", "background": "Abandoned in this case will mean:\n\nExplicitly cancelled \n\nShelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction \n\nScaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression)\n\nI will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the project is unrealistic though.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7LxcLPJKi3jA86XghgQE", "question": "Will Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations before 2025?", "background": "", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "llC0sSgzg8", "question": "Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?", "background": "Linked to this Kalshi question:\n\nIf there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.\n\nNote the resolution criteria\u2014what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "s1sb2v5t9m", "question": "Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?", "background": "Recently, MrBeast got into some heat for a few things, including the content in this vid and this vid \n\nLegal offenses can be divided into three main categories under the North Carolina justice system: infractions, misdemeanors, and felonies. Infractions are non-criminal (will NOT resolve YES with non-criminal infraction alone), or petty offenses, while misdemeanors and felonies are the two main types of criminal offenses.\n\nIf MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) is charged and convicted, found guilty, for any crime (misdemeanor or felony or criminal infraction) by any state in the US, before the end of 2026, then this market resolves YES. \n\nOtherwise this market will resolve NO on Dec 31st, 2026.\n\nalso, if he\u2019s mid trial during the deadline with no criminal conviction yet this will resolve NO even if he gets convicted in that particular trial after the deadline (which will be 11:59pm ET)\n\nComment any questions or news you have! \ud83d\udc99", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "63IqOzxPIVsOkeXJXVIx", "question": "Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of a crime before Alec Baldwin? (50% if neither before end of 2030)", "background": "Resolves 50% if neither happens by the end of 2030", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "I4pkLvl2R7ZafZth2xIm", "question": "Will Manifold add tabs (like the US Elections one) for other important elections this year?", "background": "Resolves Yes if Manifold does add a tab for another election (Indian, Russian, etc...). Resolves No if Manifold never adds anything after the US elections tab.\n\n(Will resolve Yes at any time in the year if it does happen but No at the end of the year).", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX", "question": "Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?", "background": "The OpenAI board fired Sam Altman in 2023, see Wikipedia. While Sam Altman returned, he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved, so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again, to uphold the non-profit mission.\n\nWill this happen in 2024?", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "C88rQObEu5LerDKbrA2V", "question": "Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?", "background": "If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d.\n\nThis market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe Biden has left office or finished his first presidential term, even if he gets re-elected for a second term.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3", "question": "In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?", "background": "EG \"make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover\". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ", "question": "Will Denis Villeneuve\u2019s next film be related to Dune?", "background": "Denis Villeneuve\u2019s last two films have been Dune (2021) and Dune: Part Two (2024). Will his next film be set in the Dune-iverse?\n\nThis will Resolve once there is a film with a release date (day and year) with Denis Villeneuve attached to direct. If it is unclear if the film is related to Dune, this may stay open until he or the studio clarifies. If Denis says he\u2019s doing a fully secret project, this market will stay open until this the film\u2019s Dune-relatedness is clear (potentially up until the release of the film).\n\nEven if the film is later scrapped, or another film is released first, this market will not re-resolve. This market will extend as needed.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "AhQLzRl29O", "question": "Will the \"Nintendo Switch 2\" (or other successor) be revealed before end of year?", "background": "This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before December 31st, 2024 at 11:59PM PST. A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling the original Switch's reveal trailer would qualify, but something such as a social media posting showing a visual of the system and its name would resolve to YES as well.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "sis542tw6o", "question": "Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's \"biggest guest yet\" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)", "background": "For context, see this tweet.\n\nWithin the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.\n\nIf you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com\n\nSee also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs \n\nI think it's not clear that these markets will be unambiguous and satisfactorily resolved, therefore I created this one.\n\nResolution\n\n\u200c\nA few separate possibilities to resolution here\n\n1) See: Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming \"biggest guest yet\"? Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.\n\nThe phrasing will be something along the lines of \"Do you agree that [NAME] was the person Dwarkesh alluded  to with the 'by far the biggest guest yet' tweet?\", with options \"Agree\" and \"Disagree\".\n\nIf \"Agree\" has \u226580% of votes, this market resolves YES. If it has less this market resolves to NO.\n\n2) The above market does not resolve before Q2 2025, but one alternative has traded at \u226580% consistently over a week (brief dents below 80% don't matter) --> Resolves to YES \n\n3) Toward the end of Q2 2025, neither of the above has happened. I run a poll similar to what's described above, with my best guess at a name. Resolves to YES if \u226580% \"Agree\" on the suggested name.\n\n4) Dwarkesh unambiguously confirms who the person referred to is/was, this resolves to YES immediately.\n\n5) Unaccounted for by me, but very reasonable scenarios, that I think should resolve to YES or NO, outside of the above.\n\n\nFeel free to suggest improvements to these criteria and conditions, or ask for clarifications.\nI will not trade in this market, to better allow for fair resolution.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "POZ2i84qdzsmKIN5b2xd", "question": "Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' become the highest-grossing movie of all time?", "background": "'Avatar: The Way of Water' (2022) is the second instalment of the Avatar film series directed by James Cameron.\n\nThis is a market on whether 'Avatar: The Way of Water' will become the highest-grossing movie of all time, worldwide.\n\n[image]The BoxOfficeMojo stats will be used to resolve this market, available at: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/ww_top_lifetime_gross/?area=XWW&ref_=bo_cso_ac\n\nThis is the current (January 9, 2023) list of Top 10 highest-grossing movies:\n\n[image]this market will resolve to YES as soon as Avatar: The Way of Water hits the #1 box office spot\n\nthis market will resolve to NO, if Avatar: The Way of Water does not hit the box office record before December 31 2025.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "aiNlyFriJblyntb0i6OZ", "question": "Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?", "background": "Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esports#Olympic_Games_recognition\n\nCan be either winter or summer olympics\n\n@/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the-5a91bcfb8700 \n\n@/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G", "question": "Will GTA VI get delayed again?", "background": "GTA", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "2aCl7NxBTxMVrE8VX2AA", "question": "Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)", "background": "", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "6KE2Xg2UZfJzNWXXpSzo", "question": "Will Grimes come out of retirement in 2024?", "background": "On the evening of December 29, 2023, Grimes posted, \"My friends are convincing me to come out of retirement this year.\" Assuming she meant \"this coming year\" and not in the final days of 2023, will this happen?\n\n\nI propose to resolve on the following criteria: \n\nThe market will resolve as YES if Grimes releases a new album or EP before December 31, 2024. The release must be officially announced by Grimes and be available on major streaming platforms or physical formats.\n\nThe market will resolve as YES if Grimes performs live as Grimes (distinct from a DJ set or guest feature) in a tour that begins before December 31, 2024. For the purposes of this market, a \"tour\" means at least 5 performances across different cities, OR anything that is officially called a tour by Grimes. The performances must be officially announced by Grimes or the event organizers and be open to the public.\n\nThe market will resolve as NO otherwise.\n\nI am open to recommendations (from Grimes or any interested parties) on the details of the resolution criteria. \n\nRelated market:\n\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Clark/if-grimes-comes-out-of-retirement-i)\n\n", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "JxcpJTGSurSdSMlFxYhL", "question": "Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?", "background": "", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "fovo3TFMXjJLhkL1hw9G", "question": "Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025?", "background": "Resolves YES if an AI can gain a perfect score of 1600 on an SAT under standard conditions before Jan 1, 2025, resolves NO otherwise.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5WEpXLx31YdM11zOdo4h", "question": "Will we get AGI before 2027?", "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2027:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-14d109820be6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta", "question": "Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?", "background": "Resolves YES if there are more then 2,000 active daily users in January 2025 (monthly average). \n\nAt its core, the question asks whether this social network will die after the hype has passed (like Clubhouse did) or if it will at least maintain the same level of interest as it has now, 2 weeks after it was featured in the New York Times magazine. \n\n[image]", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "YvayfreXRtBvubSPKgmm", "question": "Will we get AGI before 2032?", "background": "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2032\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2032:\n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-b347b1a76a97 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f \n\n@/RemNi/will-ai-extend-english-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-our-3d \n\n@/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-93569dad097d \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2032 \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "KqFhckN3PBuJE7tZcbaf", "question": "Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?", "background": "This question is based on a study suggesting the potential presence of the Meissner effect in copper-substituted lead apatite near room temperature. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if firm, peer-reviewed evidence or independent/laboratory verification confirming this is published by December 31, 2024.\n\nhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999\n\nhttps://twitter.com/mattparlmer/status/1742566608554627227", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv", "question": "In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?", "background": "I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "kpG0hv16d75ai3JcKZds", "question": "In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?", "background": "I will try to resolve this from estimates available at the time, but no guarantee of perfect accuracy.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "UQRBDDvSiDEEsJbevE4p", "question": "Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?", "background": "[This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]\n\nThis market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL", "question": "Will over 70% of Manifold users think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars?", "background": "Resolves according to this poll\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenWatts/does-elon-musk-deserve-100-billion)\nTake the total vote on \"No\", divided by the total number of voters on the market, to compute the % voted on \"No\".\n\nMarket Resolves Yes if the % voted on \"No\" is larger than 70% at the end of 2024", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "YleFhm7mAbAVzTW1dUmI", "question": "Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?", "background": "If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction will resolve as 'yes'. Any other outcome means the prediction is resolved as 'no'. Resolution is based on reports from these organizations.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v", "question": "Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?", "background": "Here's the video: https://youtu.be/DB5TfX7eaVY", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "9t61v9e7x4", "question": "Trump impose large tariffs in first year?", "background": "Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.\n\nData is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn\u2019t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest. \n\nIf Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter. \n\nIf Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.\n\nSee data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e\n\nCallum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum\u00a0\u00a0", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "WDTbFd6CPJezD1j41U5s", "question": "Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?", "background": "This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, but for 2025 instead of 2023. For the sake of consistency with that market, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems non-obvious to me. For convenience, what follows is the description of the linked market: > I'm picking \"trillion+ dollar impact\" as a proxy for \"obviously life-changing for normal people\". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count: > 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans > 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art > 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech > 4. A technological singularity, obviously > 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm\n\nNov 29, 5:10pm: Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025? \u2192 Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER", "question": "Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?", "background": "Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4", "question": "Is the \"100% effective against solid tumors\" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]", "background": "Twitter threads\n\nhttps://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602\n\nhttps://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241\n\nhttps://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136\n\nFirst tweet of last thread: \"Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects\".\n\nName of the paper \"Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy\". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996\n\nResolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. \"Conclusive\" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway.\n\nResolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed.\n\nResolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended.\n\nI won't trade in this market for objectivity.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E", "question": "Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?", "background": "Born December 7, 1928", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK", "question": "Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?", "background": "See:\n\nhttps://lifeview.com\n\nhttps://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection\n\nDoesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or \"child success\" predictions. ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "2oixTQc9MRUud7wZ1tT5", "question": "Will any of the four main characters of Severance die in season 2?", "background": "Mark, Helly, Dylan, and Irving\n\nDeath between season 1 and 2 also counts, assuming season 2 takes place after 1.\n\nSpecifically medical death (brain death, no heartbeat, etc). ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m", "question": "By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?", "background": "", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7", "question": "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?", "background": "This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. \"I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.\")\n\nThis will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market \n\nI will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l\n\n(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)\n\nIf we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)\n\n\"Come from a laboratory\" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been \"in the lab\" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.\n\nIn the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.\n\nI won't bet in this market.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m", "question": "Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?", "background": "Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent \"alive\" counts.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo", "question": "Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?", "background": "Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5PBiCM7mofSHR55eoXkP", "question": "Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024?", "background": "I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t", "question": "Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?", "background": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "AM1axfn3jAan7o8XYSfW", "question": "Will Zubear Abdi face legal trouble for sharing explicit photos of Taylor Swift generated by AI?", "background": "Legal troubles generally refer to situations where an individual or entity faces legal challenges or actions due to alleged violations of laws or regulations. This can encompass a variety of scenarios, including:\n\n1. Criminal Charges\n\n2. Civil Lawsuits\n\n3. Regulatory Actions\n\n4. Investigations\n\n5. Legal Notices and Cease-and-Desist Letters\n\n6. Arbitration and Mediation\n\nIn each of these scenarios, the individual or entity typically needs to engage with the legal system, which can involve hiring legal representation, responding to legal actions, appearing in court, or complying with legal decisions and judgments.\n\nWill resolve by the end of 2024 based on information available from credible news sources. ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7", "question": "Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?", "background": "This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox \"Result: Ukrainian victory\", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.\n\nIt will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.\n\nAny other \"result\" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as \"ongoing\" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like \"Partial Ukrainian victory\" or \"Ukrainian victory with territorial losses\".\n\nResolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the \"result\" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the \"result\" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.\n\nThe closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "PzPTjSi9k6JCDUYqPpe8", "question": "Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?", "background": "Will resolve to YES, if at any point before the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces control majority of Crimea territory\n\nresolution source: Institute for the Study of War, https://www.understandingwar.org/", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp", "question": "Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?", "background": "If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive.\n\nMarket open until it happens \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person ", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "Cjc9jjkQvT0hBWFGoaN7", "question": "Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?", "background": "Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.\n\nPossible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).\n\nThe resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of previous markets.\n\nSee also:\n\n[markets]", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "WApsfsjdZXrGDA1OPLs5", "question": "Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?", "background": "(Inspired by 2004\u2019s \u201cI, Robot\u201d starring Will Smith.)\n\nWill something resembling a robot uprising (as seen in the film) occur by EOY 2035?\n\nFor the purposes of this market I am loosening the resolution criteria a bit more than what literally occurs in the movie\u2014the \u201cuprising\u201d can happen in just one city, humans do not necessarily need to die or be seriously injured, and an AGI does not need to be the mastermind of the rebellion. For example, if some crazy mad haxx0r managed to seize control of all Tesla vehicles within a certain city and have the cars drive themselves outside of city limits for a full day while city infrastructure was being reprogrammed by him (or something) that would count as a \u201cyes.\u201d \n\nEssentially:\n\n1) Widespread disruption due to automata failing to fulfill their normal tasks\n\n2) Disruptions cover at least one major metropolitan area\n\n3) Disruptions are due to intent from either AGI or a malicious human (internal idiocy would not count e.g. Elon Musk deciding to do a little trolling in DC for a week)\n\n4) Disruptions in automata go on for at least 24 hours\n\n5) The actions of the automata are not recognized as being directly to the material benefit of either their owners and/or human society at large: this means that only one condition here needs to be satisfied. \n\nExamples:\n\n5a) a robot uprising may occur against the owners\u2019 short-term interests (they stop doing the laundry without permission or something) in favor of humanity\u2019s long-term interests (they work together to save the last key species in an ecosystem essential for biosphere regulation).\n\n5b) a robot uprising may occur in the owners\u2019 short-term interests but counter to those of humanity as a whole, I.e. a small group of wealthy robot owners command their bots to destroy any and all assets of unionized workers employed in their factories.\n\n5c) a robot uprising may occur wherein agricultural robots act against owners\u2019 short-term interests by setting crops on fire (destroying profits) and humanity\u2019s long-term interests (prolonged hunger/shortages due to reduced agricultural output).\n\nAny of the above three scenarios would satisfy condition #5, but conditions #1-4 must also be satisfied to resolve as a \u201cyes.\u201d\n\nMovie for context:\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Dlo-VB0-HI?si=avgO-jZTUPj0WCsy)", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD", "question": "Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?", "background": "2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm", "question": "Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?", "background": "Majority is 50%+ and it's worldwide marketshare", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF", "question": "Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?", "background": "This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric. \n\nThe source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030. This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars.\n\nThe question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars.\n\nThis question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.", "source": "manifold", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "2713", "question": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?", "background": "", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7925", "question": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?", "background": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence.  Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "9534", "question": "Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "background": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85).  American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries.  The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups  like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). \n [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/).  There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\".  The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021.  Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence.  American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "9524", "question": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "background": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores.  It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media.  In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases.  Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family.  The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox.  Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/).  It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive.  Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo.  Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research.  Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life.  Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four.  [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8602", "question": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "background": "There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "11164", "question": "Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?", "background": "The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years.\n\nWhile COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/)\n\nThere are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including:\n\n* [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100)\n\n* [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat)\n\n* [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w)\n\n* [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/)\n\n* [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention)\n\n* [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention)\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "4290", "question": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", "background": "", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5265", "question": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?", "background": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\n\n> Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\n\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\n\n> As part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people\u2019s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\n\n> Research shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\n\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\n\n> The validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5\u201324.9 for normal weight, 25\u201329.9 for overweight, and \u226530 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5\u201325, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5\u201324.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\n\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\n\n> the prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\n\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "21548", "question": "Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?", "background": "Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) mentioning that intervention [cannot be ruled out](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/). The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine. \n\nShould Russia expand its Ukraine war, possibly carrying it beyond the initial war goals of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, a direct conflict seems more plausible. Possible theaters of operation include Russia and Ukraine proper (in their internationally recognized borders), the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltic States, and Moldova (including Transnistria.)", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "21137", "question": "Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?", "background": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "18663", "question": "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?", "background": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nThere have been four previous questions of this type on Metaculus. Each of them resolved as \u201cNo.\u201d\n\n-\t[Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3900/will-the-us-see-a-massive-riot-in-2020/) by Jgalt\n-\t[Will there be a major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6244/large-scale-rioting-in-us-in-early-2021/) by Jgalt\n-\t[Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15573/huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023/) by Matthew_Barnett\n-\t[Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4536/will-the-us-see-widespread-rioting-in-2020/) by juancambeiro", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8398", "question": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?", "background": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8605", "question": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?", "background": "A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:\n> \n- \"SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\"\n- \"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon\"\n- \"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way.\"\n- \"China\u2019s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged\"\n\nHowever, while \"all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,\" the IC \"remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19\":\n>\n- \"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus\"\n- \"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.\"\n- \"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information\"\n\nThe declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may \"alter our evaluation of hypotheses\" and that, in the past, the \"identification of animal sources has taken years.\"", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8370", "question": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?", "background": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\nDifferent nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "21805", "question": "Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan\u2019s electricity infrastructure before 2030?", "background": "In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China\u2014which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory\u2014were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). And between [trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [restrictions](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/) and [air defense zone incursions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21801/taiwan-adiz-violations/#:~:text=Relations%20have%20grown%20worse%20over%20recent%20years%3A%20in%202021%20there%20were%2021%20days%20of%20%E2%80%9Creactionary%E2%80%9D%20air%20incursions%2C%20while%20in%202022%20there%20were%2055%2C%20and%20in%202023%20there%20were%2064%20(Brown%20%26%20Lewis%2C%202024).), relations between China and Taiwan have taken a turn for the worse since then. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation, namely, that China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan\u2019s electricity infrastructure.\n\nAs context, assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University has suggested that [cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.voanews.com/a/how-china-could-cyberattack-taiwan/6349594.html), making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "16164", "question": "Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?", "background": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident.  There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations.  See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "25499", "question": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?", "background": "Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes).\n\nAfter Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly, but transit remained, and agreements [were renewed](https://www.naftogaz.com/en/news/naftogaz-gtsou-and-gazprom-signed-a-set-of-agreements-to-ensure-russian-gas-transit-over-the-next-five-years) in 2019 for five years. Even the Russia-Ukraine war didn't stop the flow, although transit levels dropped by [an order of magnitude](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/) since its heights in 2008.\n\nThe current bilateral agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the Ukraine government said [it doesn't plan to extend or renew it](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plan-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/). However, Ukraine remains reliant on Russian natural gas, which is still bought via [virtual reverse flow](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/ukraine-launches-virtual-gas-reverse-flow-slovakia.html). Replacing it with actual reverse flow requires large capital investments, and it is not clear if infrastructure can be prepared in time.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7872", "question": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "background": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition).  The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban.  The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "15098", "question": "Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?", "background": "After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and market economy, but his efforts were hampered by political and economic difficulties. However, in 1999, Yeltsin resigned and was succeeded by Vladimir Putin, who has been in power ever since. Under Putin, Russia has seen a consolidation of power in the hands of the presidency, and the suppression of political opposition and independent media, resulting in what has been called one of the most [\u201cconsequential setbacks among the third and fourth waves of democratization\u201d.](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) Since Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine\u2019s successful defence and resultant Russian military losses, there has been significant discussion about a post-Putin Russia, with the possibility of a [coup](https://www.businessinsider.com/military-coup-russia-likely-anger-grows-toward-putin-ex-aide-2023-1?r=US&IR=T) raised by many.\n\n[Analysts](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) are [divided](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-political-regimes/) on what a Russia after Putin will look like; though it remains quite likely that the years following Putin\u2019s departure as president will be a potential turning point for Russia and for democracy.\n\n> What happens to Russian autocracy after Putin, however, is more uncertain. The current regime is deeply tied to Putin personally. Strikingly, Putin has failed at building an effective political party; United Russia bears little resemblance to the CPSU or the Chinese Communist Party today. \n\n> Russians are shaped but not trapped forever by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions. If some Russians in the past took decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy. It happened before and can again. \n\nHow Russia will change (if it does) after Putin ceases to be president has large potential effects for the security landscape in Europe and geopolitical balances of power worldwide.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "19298", "question": "Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?", "background": "Holden Karnofsky, in [Nearcast-based \"deployment problem\" analysis](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vZzg8NS7wBtqcwhoJ/nearcast-based-deployment-problem-analysis), suggests establishing an organization, which he calls  the IAIA: an organization, which could range from a private nonprofit to a treaty-backed international agency, that tracks transformative AI projects and takes actions to censure or shut down dangerous ones.\n\nThis IAIA organization would play a similar role to that which the [IAEA](https://www.iaea.org/) plays in nuclear weapons regulation. The IAEA enforces nuclear weapons restrictions through on-site inspections, monitoring, and analysis of environmental samples, as well as by providing technical assistance and promoting transparency.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7631", "question": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?", "background": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine.  [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5540", "question": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?", "background": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804.  However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him.  Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\n\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change.  Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8526", "question": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?", "background": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion.  It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz).  The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.\n\nThe court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting.  The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_(1976)), and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "18551", "question": "Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?", "background": "Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching activities. However, such a global system would require significant technological, legal, and diplomatic efforts.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "20767", "question": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?", "background": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "18258", "question": "Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?", "background": "Marine pollution has long been a pressing issue for the international community. With the advent of globalized industries and the expansion of maritime activities, the health of our oceans has suffered enormously. While various international agreements have been established to protect marine ecosystems and reduce pollution, their effectiveness is often limited by the lack of comprehensive and timely monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.\n\nIn recent years, the rapid advancement of space-based technologies, such as satellites and remote sensing instruments, has [shown the potential](https://www.saic.com/features/ocean-health-tracked-using-satellite-imagery) to revolutionize the field of oceanic surveillance. These tools promise real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.\n\nThe [UN High Seas Treaty](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1137857#:~:text=The%20UN%27s%20193%20Member%20States,thirds%20of%20the%20planet%27s%20oceans.) is a [landmark legally binding marine biodiversity agreement](https://phys.org/news/2023-06-high-seas-treaty-ocean.html) that dictates use and protection of \"The Area\" aka the parts of the ocean that are not under sovereign jurisdiction. [Enforcing this treaty](https://www.groundstation.space/un-high-seas-treaty-will-need-satellite-enforcement/) will require methods of monitoring expansive swaths of ocean sustainably. \n\nThis raises an intriguing question about the potential for effective use of satellite systems to reduce marine pollution and enforce the treaty. The answer could have profound implications for our collective ability to safeguard the planet's vital marine ecosystems.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1493", "question": "By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "background": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnar\u00f6k series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\nIt\u2019s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\n \nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\n\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\n\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnar\u00f6k series are designed to do.\n\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\n\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter \u2013 an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable \u2013 somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn\u2019t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "24789", "question": "Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?", "background": "Kaskida is an offshore oil field located in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), first discovered [in 2006](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-announces-significant-discovery-in-the-deepwater-gulf-of-mexi.html). With *c.* 3 billion barrels of oil it is one of the largest discovered. However, the Kaskida is an ultra-high pressure (UHP) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) oil field which makes exploiting the development challenging. \n\nUHP / UHT fields require blow-out preventers capable preventing the release of hydrocarbons into the ocean in the event of loss of well control (i.e., a \"blow-out\"). Indeed, UHP fields require highly complex and massive drillships which are both capable of reaching to the seabed extreme depths, as well as dealing with the pressures. Today, this technology exists:\n\n- Oil & Gas equipment provider APL NOV has successfully developed and manufactured a [\"20K\" blow-out preventer (BOP)](https://www.nov.com/about/news/20k-bops-will-revolutionize-subsea-pressure-control), and\n\n- Transocean has constructed an eighth-generation ultra-deepwater [drillship](https://www.deepwater.com//documents/RigSpecs/Deepwater%20Atlas.pdf) equipped with the aforementioned BOP.\n\nAside from technology, BP have a tenuous history in the GoM, perhaps most notably due to the infamous Deepwater Horizon [disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill) which resulted in the largest oil spill in history, and possibly the worst environmental disaster in history. The aftermath of Deepwater Horizon resulted in years of oil production stagnation in the GoM.\n\nJavier Blas, for Bloomberg, summarises the challenges BP face in the development of Kaskida:\n\n>BP, in particular, has a lot to prove. Its CEO may be excited about developing the Kaskida oilfield, but environmentalists, climate activists and left-leaning US lawmakers are unlikely to be enthusiastic about the prospect of the British oil major drilling a complex and challenging well in the Gulf of Mexico of all places. Everyone deserves a second chance, but US federal regulators must keep a close eye on the future of Kaskida and all other new Paleogene oil fields. BP should focus on convincing everyone that it\u2019s up to the task, rather than simply trumpeting the riches that await beneath the bottom of the sea.\n\n-----------------------\n\nWill BP successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "489", "question": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", "background": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\n\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n\n- At least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n\n- At least 27% increase in energy efficiency", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "18266", "question": "Will the International Maritime Organization permit more sulphur oxide pollution by 2030?", "background": "From [\u2018We\u2019re changing the clouds.\u2019 An unintended test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth](https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth), Science, 02 August 2023:\n\n> Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations\u2019s International Maritime Organization (IMO) have cut ships\u2019 sulfur pollution by more than 80% and improved air quality worldwide. The reduction has also lessened the effect of sulfate particles in seeding and brightening the distinctive low-lying, reflective clouds that follow in the wake of ships and help cool the planet. The 2020 IMO rule \u201cis a big natural experiment,\u201d says Duncan Watson-Parris, an atmospheric physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. \u201cWe\u2019re changing the clouds.\u201d\n> \n> By dramatically reducing the number of ship tracks, the planet has warmed up faster, several new studies have found. That trend is magnified in the Atlantic, where maritime traffic is particularly dense. In the shipping corridors, the increased light represents a 50% boost to the warming effect of human carbon emissions. It\u2019s as if the world suddenly lost the cooling effect from a fairly large volcanic eruption each year, says Michael Diamond, an atmospheric scientist at Florida State University.\n> \n> The natural experiment created by the IMO rules is providing a rare opportunity for climate scientists to study a geoengineering scheme in action\u2014although it is one that is working in the wrong direction. Indeed, one such strategy to slow global warming, called marine cloud brightening, would see ships inject salt particles back into the air, to make clouds more reflective. In Diamond\u2019s view, the dramatic decline in ship tracks is clear evidence that humanity could cool off the planet significantly by brightening the clouds. \u201cIt suggests pretty strongly that if you wanted to do it on purpose, you could,\u201d he says.\n\n---\n\nIn [IMO 2020 \u2013 cutting sulphur oxide emissions](https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-2020.aspx), the IMO discusses in detail the regulation in question. \n\n> On 1 January 2020, a new limit on the sulphur content in the fuel oil used on board ships came into force, marking a significant milestone to improve air quality, preserve the environment and protect human health.\n> \n> Known as \u201cIMO 2020\u201d, the rule limits the sulphur in the fuel oil used on board ships operating outside designated emission control areas to 0.50% m/m (mass by mass) - a significant reduction from the previous limit of 3.5%. Within specific designated emission control areas the limits were already stricter (0.10%). This new limit was made compulsory following an amendment to Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL).\n>\n> The resulting reduction in sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships is having major health and environmental benefits for the world, particularly for populations living close to ports and coasts. Sulphur oxides are harmful to human health, causing respiratory, cardiovascular and lung disease. Once released in the atmosphere, SOx\u202f can lead to acid rain, which impacts crops, forests and aquatic species and contributes to the acidification of the oceans.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "10176", "question": "Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?", "background": "", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "6558", "question": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "background": "", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "349", "question": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?", "background": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\n\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \n\nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's *Marsprojekt* of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8516", "question": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?", "background": "The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality)\n\n>an enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera)\n\nSome expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>By 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050).\n\nAccording to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/).", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "3608", "question": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "background": "", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5875", "question": "Will online poker be dead on January 1, 2031?", "background": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\n\n>Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold\u2019em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm\u2019s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory \u2014 the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars\u2019 worth of computing resources to train.\n\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\n\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n\n>\u201cThe (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,\u201d analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\n\nAccording to https://www.pokerscout.com/, as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "4409", "question": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?", "background": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\n\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \n\nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "397", "question": "Will RoboCup announce that robots have beaten professional human soccer players before 2050?", "background": "The [RoboCup](http://www.robocup.org/objective) (short for Robot World Cup Initiative) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The RoboCup Federation hosts annual RoboCup competitions where robotic teams compete in soccer matches. In [a paper published in 1995](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.49.7511) the creators of the RoboCup describe the initiative as \n\n>an attempt to foster AI and intelligent robotics research by providing a standard problem where [a] wide range of technologies can be integrated and examined.\n\nThe stated ultimate goal of the RoboCup Initiative is:\n\n> By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \n\nAs a part of this process, annual RoboCup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7509", "question": "Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?", "background": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/conviction-in-us-for-bitcoin-ownership-2060/)\n\n----", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "4934", "question": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", "background": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\n\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "18664", "question": "Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2031?", "background": "The Metaculus community has projected the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 (Unemployed and looking for work) unemployment rate for the US at around 3% through 2027. \n\n-\t[What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following year?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14064/us-annual-average-u-3-unemployment-rate/) by RyanBeck\n\nPresumably, if some new data emerged indicating a shock to the labor markets, the Metaculus community would reassess their forecasts and possibly increase the percentage. \n\nWhat percentage point might be considered a shock to the labor market? In December, 2018, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Jgalt asked if the US unemployment rate would reach 10%. This question resolved \u201cYes\u201d at 14.7% in April 2020.\n\n-\t[Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/) by Jgalt\n\nUsing Jgalt\u2019s criteria, a US unemployment rate of 10% or higher could be viewed as evidence of a shock to the labor markets.\n\nThis question asks if the US will reach 10% unemployment (seasonally adjusted) at any point before January 1st 2031.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "20781", "question": "Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?", "background": "Since Elon Musk concluded his purchase of Twitter on [October 22nd, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), the company (now rebranded to \"X\") has had its fair share of scandals, such as the [removal](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/20/23690820/twitter-verified-blue-checkmark-legacy-elon-musk) of blue checkmarks from legacy users and [ad boycotts](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/29/23981928/elon-musk-ad-boycott-go-fuck-yourself-destroy-x) that have significantly hurt the company financially.\n\nFurthermore, in November 2022, Musk [told](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/) his employees that bankruptcy is not out of the question. Still, Musk has [mentioned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024) ambitious plans for turning X into more than just a social media app; he also aims for it to be a financial app, with updates expected in 2024. Musk [remarked](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024), \"You won\u2019t need a bank account... it would blow my mind if we don\u2019t have that rolled out by the end of next year.\"", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "26335", "question": "Will England build at least 1.5 million new homes over the current parliamentary term?", "background": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament\" in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=36) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\nHousing policy in the UK (which includes house building) is a [devolved matter](https://fullfact.org/economy/house-building-levels-PMQs/) in the UK, meaning the national governments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland set their own policies separately from the government in Westminster. The Labour manifesto for 2024 has the sentence \"Labour will get Britain \nbuilding again, creating jobs across England, with 1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament.\", which suggests the 1.5 million goal is for England only.\n\nFor more information please see: [The new Labour government plans to build 1.5 million homes \u2013 here\u2019s what\u2019s needed to make it happen](https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/the-new-labour-government-plans-to-build-15-million-homes--heres-whats-needed-to-make-it-happen/)", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "4061", "question": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?", "background": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\n\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "22150", "question": "Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?", "background": "In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.\n\nComparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).\n\nIn contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html).", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7481", "question": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?", "background": "The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))), the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "3812", "question": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?", "background": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\n\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\",\n\"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "18092", "question": "Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in \"The Kingkiller Chronicle\"?", "background": "*The Kingkiller Chronicle* and *A Song of Ice and Fire* are considered two of the [best epic fantasy fiction series](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/50.The_Best_Epic_Fantasy_fiction_) of all time.\n\nThe most recent books in each series were published in 2011, leaving their fans expecting new volume (or news of it) for over 12 years. \n\nAs of July 2023 [neither](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2023/05/22/a-new-patrick-rothfuss-kingkiller-chronicles-book--is-coming-out-this-year/?sh=2443fa0e1561) George R.R. Martin's \"[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter)\" nor Patrick Rothfuss's \"[The Doors of Stone](https://kingkiller.fandom.com/wiki/The_Doors_of_Stone)\" have an official publication date, despite many tentative deadlines the authors have given during the years.\n\nWho will publish first?", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "16469", "question": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?", "background": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children\u2019s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife\u2019s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle\u2019s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry\u2019s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children\u2019s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8403", "question": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?", "background": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI.  By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "13924", "question": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?", "background": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "4849", "question": "Will any science fiction literature originally written in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?", "background": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\n\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\n\n(EN ESPA\u00d1OL:)\n\n***\u00bfGanar\u00e1 una obra de Ciencia Ficci\u00f3n escrita y publicada originalmente en espa\u00f1ol hasta el a\u00f1o 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del g\u00e9nero?***\n\nEspa\u00f1a tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficci\u00f3n. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la m\u00e1quina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clar\u00edn o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al g\u00e9nero, la ciencia ficci\u00f3n espa\u00f1ola no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un cl\u00e1sico universalmente aceptado y la mayor\u00eda de los escritores y t\u00edtulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de Espa\u00f1a, sino tambi\u00e9n entre sus pares de profesi\u00f3n. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un \u00abg\u00e9nero fantasma\u00bb.\n\nEl p\u00fablico espa\u00f1ol disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficci\u00f3n como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en espa\u00f1ol no solo no carece de imaginaci\u00f3n, sino que ha producido fen\u00f3menos culturales como el realismo m\u00e1gico del boom latinoamericano. El r\u00e1pido desarrollo tecnol\u00f3gico ha convertido a la ciencia ficci\u00f3n en algo cada vez m\u00e1s familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores espa\u00f1oles lo siguen intentando.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8315", "question": "Will the next James Bond be female?", "background": "James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.\n\nIt is widely understood that *No Time To Die* will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:\n\n* [\"I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there,\" - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/)\n* [\"The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman\" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/)\n\nHowever, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male\u2026](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "8805", "question": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?", "background": "In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.\n\nThe Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.\n\nAre we on a road to a Star Trek Future?", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "6903", "question": "Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?", "background": "Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:\n\n> Just wondering\u2026..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men\u2019s and women\u2019s tennis to be united and come together as one?\n\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?\". The answer given was \"No\".", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "6973", "question": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?", "background": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \n\nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "21829", "question": "Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?", "background": "The Cy Young Award is the most prestigious award exclusively available to pitchers in Major League Baseball.\n\nAmong the various types of throws a pitcher can make is the fastball. Its velocity is correlated with pitcher success as measured by strikeout rate. Pitchers who can throw at exceptional speeds are known as \"fireballers\" or \"flamethrowers\"; players whose throws go slower have to rely more on locating their pitches, changing speeds, and using breaking balls. Fastball velocity has been steadily rising throughout the 2010s.\n\nRecent Cy Young Award winners who would trigger positive resolution are [Rick Porcello (2016 AL, 90.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rick-porcello-519144?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb), [Dallas Keuchel (2015 AL, 89.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb). R.A. Dickey (2012 NL), and Brandon Webb (2006).\n\nFor perspective, other soft-tossers who have successful seasons are Clayton Kershaw (2023, 90.7 mph, 10th percentile in MLB) and  Hyun Jin Ryu (2019, 90.5 mph, 14th percentile). To illustrate the league-wide increase in fastball velocity, Rick Porcello's was in the 21st percentile in 2016 (90.9 mph) and Dallas Keuchel was in the 15th percentile in 2015 (89.9 mph).\n\nMoreover, there has been an \"epidemic\" of pitcher arm injuries in Major League Baseball. The most common injury is a tear of the elbow's ulnar collateral ligament; recovery from the surgery to fix it usually takes more than a year. [Many observers](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39900377/mlb-pitching-injuries-tommy-john-issue-shane-bieber-spencer-strider-eury-perez) attribute the injuries to harder and maximum-effort throwing, even though team managers restrict the amount of competitive innings their pitchers throw.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "18673", "question": "Will a fourth manufacturer enter the NASCAR Cup Series before 2030?", "background": "Ever since [Dodge left the NASCAR Cup Series after the 2012 season](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a18744961/why-dodge-pulled-the-plug-on-its-nascar-program/), only three manufacturers have remained in the series: Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota. [Speculation has abounded](https://www.jayski.com/2020/10/01/honda-not-currently-interested-in-coming-to-nascar/) [for many years](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/a30351017/next-gen-what-we-know-about-nascars-new-car/) that a new manufacturer will join the series, [or that Dodge will return](https://twitter.com/A_S12/status/1579650835084369921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579650835084369921%7Ctwgr%5E7833c022a2de9318836a1b21aca8b43ff232c7de%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportscasting.com%2Fdodge-reportedly-has-cooled-on-nascar-return-but-does-it-matter%2F).", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "6197", "question": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?", "background": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7072", "question": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?", "background": "", "source": "metaculus", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1399", "question": "Will Nicol\u00e1s Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, with incumbent Nicol\u00e1s Maduro running for his third term in office (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-clinches-nomination-national-election-third-term/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS</a>). The most recent presidential election in 2018 was widely considered illegitimate due to many alleged irregularities and was boycotted by both the main opposition coalition and many voters (<a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/5/21/venezuelas-maduro-wins-presidential-vote-boycotted-by-opposition\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/20/americas/venezuela-elections/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>). Observers are concerned about this election as well, as human rights groups allege that the current government has escalated repression in the leadup to the election, including the arrests of prominent members of civil society and the expulsion of members of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (<a href=\"https://www.csis.org/analysis/could-be-last-shot-restore-democracy-venezuela\" target=\"_blank\">CSIS</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-repression-maduro-machado-35d063ba9ba3e08399c02cb572d78e5b\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>). If re-elected, Maduro\u2019s term would begin on 10 January 2025 (<a href=\"https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-02-07/venezuelas-ruling-party-is-preparing-this-years-electoral-calendar-to-win-the-presidency-by-hook-or-by-crook.html\" target=\"_blank\">El Pa\u00eds</a>).\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>For the purposes of this question, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro is currently the President of Venezuela, despite many countries not viewing his election as legitimate. Consequently, this question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d unless Maduro voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President instead before 11 January 2025, even if Maduro is not physically in the country. Any temporary exercise of the President\u2019s duties by others (e.g., in the case of illness) will not affect resolution.</div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  \r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1363", "question": "Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?", "background": "The chief of Myanmar\u2019s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (<a href=\"https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-junta-promises-elections-by-2023/a-58720116\" target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Welle</a>). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six months in February 2023 and again in July 2023, delaying elections beyond 2023 (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-military-state-of-emergency-extend-c860a06985f42265088b53c0ea80029e\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>). Officials have stated that the election may not occur until a nationwide census is completed in 2024 (<a href=\"https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-02/myanmar-census-will-increase-surveillance-of-junta-opponents/102923250\" target=\"_blank\">ABC Australia</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading:\u00a0</b></div><ul>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-precipice-stalemate-and-internal-strife-compelling-military-toward-election\" target=\"_blank\">Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election</a> (Center for Strategic and International Studies)\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/census-10242023154556.html\" target=\"_blank\">Pilot opposition suggests no meaningful census for Myanmar polls</a> (Radio Free Asia)</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as \"yes\" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.</div><div><br></div>", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1413", "question": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?", "background": "In March 2024, Vladimir Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-vote-starts-final-day-with-accusations-kyiv-sabotage-2024-03-17/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). This comes after Putin signed into law in 2021 a change to the Russian constitution that reset his term limits, allowing him to run in 2024 and possibly 2030 (<a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-president-russia-signs-law-allowing-2-more-presidential-terms/\" target=\"_blank\">CBS</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-signs-law-allows-2-more-terms-d9acdada71b75c3daeafb389782fed4b\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>). However, the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Russia\u2019s economic problems, and domestic instability remains to be seen (<a href=\"https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/\" target=\"_blank\">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href=\"https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/putin-and-russias-future\" target=\"_blank\">Wilson Center</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news media reports.</div>", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1290", "question": "Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA (\"Iran nuclear deal\")?", "background": "\r\n    The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (\u201cJCPOA\u201d, or \u201cIran nuclear deal\u201d) is an agreement signed in 2015 by Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council\u2013China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States\u2013plus Germany) that lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits on Iran\u2019s nuclear enrichment program (<a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal\" target=\"_blank\">CFR</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>After the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, Iran breached multiple limits set by the agreement (<a href=\"https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/restoring-jcpoas-nuclear-limits\" target=\"_blank\">Arms Control Association</a>). The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran\u2019s Quds force, prompted Iran to further reduce compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA (<a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2020/01/05/793814276/iran-abandons-nuclear-deal-limitations-in-wake-of-soleimani-killing\" target=\"_blank\">NPR</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/05/iran-abandons-nuclear-deal-killing-soleimani-094197\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>). While Iran has not officially withdrawn from the JCPOA, it has stopped the implementation of its nuclear-related commitments and significantly limited monitoring of its nuclear-related facilities (<a href=\"https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/06/gov2023-24.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">IAEA GOV/2023/24</a>). The United States and Iran had been in discussions to restore both parties to full compliance with the deal, but negotiations appear to have stalled (<a href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/what-exactly-happened-to-the-iran-nuclear-deal\" target=\"_blank\">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href=\"https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-says-no-nuclear-deal-on-table-with-iran/7158920.html\" target=\"_blank\">VOA</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div> This question will be resolved using news media reports and announcements from the Iranian government that Iran is withdrawing from the JCPOA. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024 and indicate that Iran is leaving the JCPOA, not just ignoring limits or commitments under the deal. Leaving the JCPOA as part of signing a new nuclear deal with countries party to the JCPOA will <b>not</b> count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on \u201cIran's Nuclear Progress.\u201d For more, see <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/forecasting-iran-nuclear-development\" target=\"_blank\">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/archive\" target=\"_blank\">issue reports</a>, and <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Nuclear%20Program\" target=\"_blank\">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>\r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1285", "question": "Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing \u201csnapback\u201d sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the \u201cJoint Comprehensive Plan of Action\u201d or \u201cJCPOA\u201d) includes a \u201csnapback\u201d provision which enables a participant state to initiate a process that would reimpose the UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted as part of that agreement (<a href=\"https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/snapback-sanctions-iran-more-bark-bite\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Institute</a>, <a href=\"https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/policy-briefs/trigger-warning-consequences-snapping-back-sanctions-iran\" target=\"_blank\">Iran Watch</a>). The Trump administration tried to initiate this process in 2020, but the effort was rejected by other signatories because the U.S. had withdrawn from the agreement (<a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-officially-moves-to-trigger-sanctions-snapback-against-iran/2020/08/20/3a9e6148-e317-11ea-ade1-28daf1a5e919_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">Washington Post</a>, <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53912771\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>As part of an attempt to revive the nuclear deal, the Biden administration rescinded that request in 2021 (<a href=\"https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2021/apr/02/new-talks-timeline-diplomacy-under-biden\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Institute for Peace</a>). However, recent developments in Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons program, including the discovery of highly enriched uranium at an Iranian facility in February, has brought the debate over \u201csnapback\u201d sanctions back to the forefront of the policy discussion (<a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753\" target=\"_blank\">NBC News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/63e3c340-0876-4146-abe5-be8599b4553c\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>, <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/smoldering-iran-nuclear-crisis-risks-catching-fire-2023-05-05/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). \u00a0</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div> The question will resolve as \u201cYes\u201d if one of the JCPOA participants  initiates the snapback process by filing a letter with the U.N. Security Council, charging Iran with significant non-performance of commitments (see <a href=\"https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">paragraphs 36 and 37 of the JCPOA</a>). Letters to the U.N. Security Council regarding Iran can be found here. Current JCPOA participants include: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, and Iran. The U.S. is no longer considered a participant because it withdrew from the agreement in 2018.\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading:</b></div><ul>\r\n<li>An example letter imposing snapback sanctions is <a href=\"https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2020_921.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">the one the U.S. submitted to the U.N. Security Council in September 2020</a>. However, it would not have counted because the U.S. was not a participant to the JCPOA at that time and the letter did not begin the snapback process.</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal\" target=\"_blank\">What is the Iran Nuclear Deal</a> (CFR)</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/20200819-what-is-snapback-us-iran-sanctions-move-explained\" target=\"_blank\">What is snapback? US Iran Sanctions Move Explained</a> (France 24)</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on \u201cIran's Nuclear Progress.\u201d For more, see <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/forecasting-iran-nuclear-development\" target=\"_blank\">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/archive\" target=\"_blank\">issue reports</a>, and <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Nuclear%20Program\" target=\"_blank\">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1286", "question": "By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    \r\n    <p>Uranium is typically enriched to 90% U-235 or higher (commonly called \"weapon-grade uranium\") for use in nuclear weapons (<a href=\"https://armscontrolcenter.org/uranium-enrichment-for-peace-or-for-weapons/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation</a>, <a href=\"https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/weapon-materials-basics\" target=\"_blank\">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>). Iran promised to curtail uranium enrichment to less than 4% as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the \u201cJoint Comprehensive Plan of Action\u201d or \u201cJCPOA\u201d), but it stepped back from these commitments in retaliation for attacks on Iranian leaders and the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement (<a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal\" target=\"_blank\">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href=\"https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/may/03/timeline-iran%E2%80%99s-nuclear-program-2018\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Institute of Peace</a>). Following the U.S.' withdrawal, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, and Iran remained participants in the JCPOA.\u00a0</p><p>Although Iran has increasingly limited monitoring and verification of its nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to report on its JCPOA commitments (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/exclusive-iran-restricts-iaea-access-main-enrichment-plant-after-attack-2021-07-01/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>, <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/10/un-agency-iran-nuclear-probe-00066350\" target=\"_blank\">Politico</a>). In February of 2023, it reported that it had found particles containing up to 83.7% enriched uranium (<a href=\"https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/03/gov2023-8.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">IAEA</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753\" target=\"_blank\">NBC</a>).\r\n    \r\n  </p><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>The question will be resolved based on IAEA reports about Iran\u2019s nuclear program, which are posted <a href=\"https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran/iaea-and-iran-iaea-board-reports\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. The IAEA report must indicate that the IAEA found uranium particles containing 90% or more U-235 at an Iranian nuclear facility. \u00a0</div><p></p><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on \u201cIran's Nuclear Progress.\u201d For more, see <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/forecasting-iran-nuclear-development\" target=\"_blank\">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/archive\" target=\"_blank\">issue reports</a>, and <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Nuclear%20Program\" target=\"_blank\">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>\r\n  \r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1342", "question": "Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?", "background": "\r\n    The internationally-recognized government of Yemen has been engaged in conflict with rebels from the Houthi movement since 2014 (<a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/war-yemen\" target=\"_blank\">CFR</a>). The government of Yemen is supported by a Saudi-backed military coalition, while the Houthi movement has close ties to Iran and Hezbollah (<a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/yemen-crisis\" target=\"_blank\">CFR</a>, <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/who-are-the-houthis-and-why-are-we-at-war-with-them/\" target=\"_blank\">Brookings</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>In April 2022, the United Nations negotiated a ceasefire between the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/world/middleeast/yemen-cease-fire.html\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times</a>). The ceasefire was originally intended to last two months, but was extended twice before being allowed to lapse in October 2022 (<a href=\"https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign-and-security-policy/can-the-third-time-be-the-charm-for-yemen-6125/\" target=\"_blank\">IPS Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-houthis-after-the-yemeni-cease-fire/\" target=\"_blank\">Brookings</a>). Following Hamas\u2019 October 2023 attack, there are now concerns that the war between Hamas and Israel could push the Houthis closer to Iran and away from a new ceasefire agreement with the Saudi-backed government of Yemen (<a href=\"https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/why-hamas-israel-war-can-be-a-turning-point-for-yemens-houthis-149895\" target=\"_blank\">ISPI</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using credible, open source reports that Yemen and the Houthi movement have signed a ceasefire. For the question to resolve \u201cyes\u201d, the ceasefire must be signed on or before 31 December 2024, last at least six months, and still be in effect on 31 December 2024. If a ceasefire is agreed upon, this question will be resolved either on 1 January 2025 or six months after the agreement is reached, whichever is later. A ceasefire originally intended to last less than six months but is extended to last longer than six months and lasts through the end of 2024 will still count towards resolution.\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on \u201cIran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.\u201d For more, see <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/iran-influence-vnsa\" target=\"_blank\">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/archive\" target=\"_blank\">issue reports</a>, and <a href=\"https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Influence%20on%20VNSAs\" target=\"_blank\">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>\r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1451", "question": "Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?", "background": "\r\n    The South China Sea is one of the most geopolitically contentious regions in the world, with overlapping territorial claims from several nations, including China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and Vietnam (<a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea\" target=\"_blank\">CFR</a>). The various islands, reefs, and shoals in the South China Sea (such as the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal) are valuable not only for their strategic military positioning but also for their potential economic benefits, particularly in terms of fishing rights, undersea natural resources, and control of vital maritime trade routes (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349\" target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/maritime-chessboard-the-geopolitical-dynamics-of-the-south-china-sea/\" target=\"_blank\">Geopolitical Monitor</a>). China has been especially assertive in the region, using both official Coast Guard and Navy ships, as well as unofficial maritime militias, to enforce its claims and confront other nations\u2019 ships in the South China Sea (<a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-us-sea-clash-d08f4532c2a66047c6fa2833b76d7773\" target=\"_blank\">AP News</a>, <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/13/china-maritime-militia-explainer-south-china-sea-scarborough-shoal\" target=\"_blank\">The Guardian</a>).\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if open-source news reports, official statements from the Chinese government, or statements from governments that also dispute the maritime features (such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, or Taiwan) indicate that the China Coast Guard or People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has attempted to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025. Attempts by unofficial or quasi-official Chinese ships (i.e., China\u2019s \u201cmaritime militia\u201d) will not count toward resolution.</div><div><br></div><div>An \u201cattempt to anchor\u201d is defined as any clear action to position or moor a vessel at or near the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea, even if such an attempt is disrupted or unsuccessful. Routine patrols or transits that do not involve an effort to anchor will not count toward resolution.</div><div><br></div><div>Disputed features in the South China Sea include, but are not limited to, the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal (<a href=\"https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10607\" target=\"_blank\">Congressional Research Service</a>).</div>\r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1462", "question": "Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?", "background": "The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a multi-ethnic coalition primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, established in 2015 with U.S. support to combat ISIS. The SDF has maintained control over key regions in northeastern Syria, including Manbij, Raqqa, and parts of Deir ez-Zor.\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>However, the SDF faces numerous challenges that threaten its stability and territorial integrity. In recent years, the SDF has dealt with increasing pressure from various fronts, including Turkish military operations aimed at curbing Kurdish autonomy, ongoing conflicts with remnants of ISIS, and tensions with the Syrian government. The SDF's governance model has been challenged by internal strife, particularly in areas with significant Arab populations, which have led to clashes and accusations of marginalization (<a href=\"https://ecfr.eu/special/mena-armed-groups/syrian-democratic-forces-syria/\" target=\"_blank\">ECFR</a>).</div><div><br></div><div>Recent reports indicate that fighting erupted between the SDF and Arab tribal groups in Deir ez-Zor after the SDF apprehended a local leader, resulting in casualties and displacement (<a href=\"https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2023-10/syria-60.php\" target=\"_blank\">Security Council Report</a>). Additionally, as U.S. support has waned under changing political administrations, the SDF's vulnerability to external threats has increased (<a href=\"https://www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war\" target=\"_blank\">CFR</a>). Given these factors, there is growing concern about the SDF's ability to maintain control over its territories amidst external pressures and internal divisions.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if credible news sources or international organizations report the SDF has experienced any of the following:</div><ul>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Collapsed: </b>This would be evidenced by reports from SDF leadership that the SDF has disbanded or that they can no longer function as a cohesive military or administrative entity.</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Fragmented: </b>This would be evidenced by reports of significant divisions within the SDF leading to splinter groups that operate independently or engage in conflict with each other.</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Lost Control Over Key Territories: </b>Reports need to indicate that Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor are no longer under effective SDF governance. Indicators of loss of control may include significant armed conflict resulting in the SDF being unable to maintain security or governance in these areas; withdrawal of SDF forces due to overwhelming opposition; and the emergence of rival administrations or armed groups asserting control over these territories, leading to a breakdown in SDF-led governance structures.\u00a0</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div>The question will resolve as \"No\" if none of these events occur before 1 October 2026.</div><div><br></div>", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "1432", "question": "Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?", "background": "\r\n    Currently, China\u2019s only military base in Africa is in Djibouti, for which construction was confirmed to begin in February 2016 (<a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2016/02/confirmed-construction-begins-on-chinas-first-overseas-military-base-in-djibouti/\" target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>). Since the establishment of its military base in Djibouti in 2017, China has shown interest in expanding its military presence in Africa, with significant investments in commercial ports and infrastructure across the continent (<a href=\"https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/01/china-eyeing-second-military-base-africa\" target=\"_blank\">USIP</a>, <a href=\"https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/chinas-maritime-expansion-an-emerging-security-dilemma/\" target=\"_blank\">Geopolitical Monitor</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>In recent years, U.S. intelligence reports have indicated that China is considering establishing a military base in Equatorial Guinea, possibly in Bata, which is already home to a Chinese-built deep-water commercial port (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-first-military-base-on-africas-atlantic-coast-u-s-intelligence-finds-11638726327\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2969935/general-says-china-is-seeking-a-naval-base-in-west-africa/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Defense</a>). However, while China has continued to invest heavily in trade and infrastructure projects in the country, plans for such a base have not been confirmed (<a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/china-and-equatorial-guinea-why-their-new-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-matters/\" target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>, <a href=\"https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03/china-pla-navy-base-west-africa-atlantic-equatorial-guinea/\" target=\"_blank\">Foreign Policy</a>). More recent U.S. government reports have indicated that China may be pursuing a military base in neighboring Gabon (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/u-s-china-tensions-have-a-new-front-a-naval-base-in-africa-616e9e77\" target=\"_blank\">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href=\"https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-continues-its-search-for-a-maritime-military-presence-in-west-africa/\" target=\"_blank\">The Diplomat</a>). Other possible locations include Angola, Namibia, Kenya, and Tanzania (<a href=\"https://africacenter.org/spotlight/considerations-prospective-chinese-naval-base-africa/\" target=\"_blank\">Africa Center</a>, <a href=\"https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001487345/pentagon-jittery-over-chinas-military-ambitions-in-kenya\" target=\"_blank\">The Standard</a>, <a href=\"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/07/31/chinese-military-naval-bases-in-africa-and-us-indian-naval-influence-around-the-world/\" target=\"_blank\">Modern Diplomacy</a>).\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news reports and/or official government statements indicating that a groundbreaking ceremony has taken place or that construction has begun on a military facility for use by the People\u2019s Liberation Army in an African country other than Djibouti.\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div>Additionally, the following scenarios <b>will</b> count towards resolution:\u00a0</div><ul>\r\n<li>The expansion, conversion, or transfer of an existing port or military facility to allow for use by the People\u2019s Liberation Army, whether for their exclusive use or dual use.</li>\r\n<li>Reports that such a facility has been established or is operational, with no previous confirmation of an agreement or construction.\u00a0</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div>The following scenarios <b>will NOT</b> count towards resolution:</div><ul>\r\n<li>Reports that negotiations are underway or that an agreement has been reached.\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>Facilities used by Chinese personnel on UN peacekeeping missions will not count towards resolution.</li>\r\n<li>Reports that construction is underway on a suspected Chinese overseas military facility <b>will not</b> count unless or until such a facility is confirmed by statements from the Chinese or the relevant African country\u2019s government.\u00a0</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div>Additionally, for the purposes of this question:</div><ul>\r\n<li>Chinese officials may use the terms \u201clogistical\u201d or \u201csupport\u201d facility rather than a \u201cmilitary base\u201d, but any facility constructed for use by the People\u2019s Liberation Army will be considered a military base.</li>\r\n<li>An \u201cAfrican country\u201d includes African island nations (e.g., Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Madagascar, etc.).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1401", "question": "Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n  \r\n    Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href=\"https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Network World</a>, <a href=\"https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world\u2019s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards Open RAN efforts in the past (<a href=\"https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says\" target=\"_blank\">Light Reading</a>, <a href=\"https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/\" target=\"_blank\">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support Open RAN were forthcoming (<a href=\"https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom TV</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if Huawei sells or announces a commercial Open RAN equipment offering before 1 January 2027. Announcements about research plans or trials of Open RAN equipment will not count.</div>\r\n  \r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1364", "question": "By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?", "background": "\r\n    <a href=\"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/lab/microsoft-research-asia/overview/\" target=\"_blank\">Microsoft Research Lab Asia</a> (MSR Asia), is the division of Microsoft Research based in China and focuses its research on artificial intelligence, computer vision, and other critical technologies. In June 2023, the Financial Times reported that Microsoft was moving some of its top AI experts from MSR Asia to a new research lab in Vancouver that would be organizationally aligned with MSR Asia (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/d21d2f85-7531-4536-bcce-8ca38620fe55\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times</a>). This followed a decision in May by Microsoft-owned LinkedIn to shut down InCareer, the stripped-down version of the LinkedIn app that remained in China after LinkedIn decided to pull out of the country in 2021 (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/technology/linkedin-cut-716-jobs-phase-out-china-local-jobs-app-2023-05-09/\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). However, Peter Lee, the head of Microsoft Research, has denied claims that Microsoft is planning to close their lab in China saying, \u201cThere has been no discussion or advocacy to close Microsoft Research Asia, and we look forward to continuing our research agenda\u201d (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/technology/microsoft-china-ai-lab.html\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times</a>).\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \"Yes\" if Microsoft announces in a press release, statement by Microsoft executives, or other official communication that it is closing Microsoft Research Asia or moving the research lab to another country. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024, but the closure or relocation does not need to be effected by that date. The relocation of some MSR Asia staff without the closing of offices or cessation of operations in China will not be sufficient for resolution.</div><div><br></div>\r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1385", "question": "Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?", "background": "Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href=\"https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Network World</a>, <a href=\"https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html\" target=\"_blank\">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world\u2019s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards open RAN efforts in the past (<a href=\"https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says\" target=\"_blank\">Light Reading</a>, <a href=\"https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/\" target=\"_blank\">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support open RAN were forthcoming (<a href=\"https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom TV</a>).\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>The <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/about\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Alliance</a>\u00a0(O-RAN) is an organization made up of mobile network operators, vendors, and academic and research institutions that is working to move the industry towards open RAN architecture. Huawei is not a member of O-RAN, despite the fact that rival telecom equipment manufacturers Nokia, Ericsson, and ZTE, as well as China\u2019s major mobile network operators are all members of the Alliance (<a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/membership\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Membership</a>). Some view O-RAN as a U.S.-backed effort to tackle Huawei\u2019s dominance in the industry but others have noted that Chinese influence within O-RAN may scupper these efforts (<a href=\"https://www.gizchina.com/2024/03/19/breaking-down-operation-o-ran-how-the-us-aims-to-level-the-playing-field-against-huawei/\" target=\"_blank\">GizChina</a>, <a href=\"https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220113PD207/5g-o-ran-china-telecom-service_-infrastructure.html\" target=\"_blank\">DigiTimes</a>, <a href=\"https://ecipe.org/blog/chinas-participation-o-ran/\" target=\"_blank\">ECIPE</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if Huawei or the O-RAN Alliance announce a collaboration between them on or before 1 October 2025. Such a collaboration might include, but is not limited to, Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance, testing or developing equipment with O-RAN standards, or making financial or resource commitments. Examples of past announcements of other organizations collaborating with O-RAN include O-RAN\u2019s collaborations with <a href=\"https://www.atis.org/press-releases/atis-and-o-ran-alliance-broaden-cooperative-efforts/\" target=\"_blank\">ATIS</a>, <a href=\"https://www.smallcellforum.org/press-releases/scf-and-oran-alliance/\" target=\"_blank\">SCF</a>, and the <a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200225005180/en/The-O-RAN-Alliance-and-the-Telecom-Infra-Project-TIP-Reach-New-Level-of-Collaboration-for-Open-Radio-Access-Networks\" target=\"_blank\">Telecom Infra Project</a>. Statements by Huawei that they intend to explore open RAN projects unrelated to the O-RAN Alliance will not count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div>", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1373", "question": "Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    <p>Many building blocks are needed to support life, including water, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen gas (<a href=\"https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/life-sparking-gas-strengthens-evidence-that-enceladus-a-moon-of-saturn-could-be-habitable-180983445/\" target=\"_blank\">Smithsonian Magazine</a>). To be considered \u201cpotentially habitable\u201d, a planet must be up to 2.5 times the size of the Earth or up to 10 times Earth\u2019s mass and orbit the right distance from its star for liquid water to possibly be present (<a href=\"https://phl.upr.edu/hwc\" target=\"_blank\">Planetary Habitability Laboratory</a>).\r\n    \r\n  </p><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>As of 1 February 2024, the <a href=\"https://phl.upr.edu/hwc\" target=\"_blank\">Habitable Worlds Catalog</a> identified 69 potentially habitable worlds out of over five thousand known exoplanets, with five of them added to the list in 2023. This question will be resolved as \u201cYes\u201d if the Habitable Worlds Catalog adds 5 or more new potentially habitable worlds to the list (i.e., the sum of their conservative and optimistic samples) discovered on or before 31 December 2024.</div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1386", "question": "Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    The <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/about\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization that creates standards for telecommunication technology to ensure that mobile network telecommunications equipment operate within an open architecture and are interoperable between vendors. One way that manufacturers can show that a product complies with O-RAN standards is by obtaining an <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Certificate</a> from one of O-RAN\u2019s Open Testing and Integration Centres (OTIC). In August 2023, O-RAN announced the opening of four new OTICs in the U.S. (<a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230817436719/en/O-RAN-ALLIANCE-Welcomes-Four-New-OTICs-In-North-America\" target=\"_blank\">Business Wire</a>). However, no companies have received certificates from an OTIC in the U.S. to date.<br><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved using the <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program\" target=\"_blank\">O-RAN Certification and Badging Catalogue</a>. To count towards resolution, the catalog entry must show the following:</div><ul>\r\n<li>\u201cDate of issued certificate\u201d must be on or after 2024-04-01 and on or before 2025-03-31</li>\r\n<li>\u201cType\u201d must be \u201cCertificate\u201d</li>\r\n<li>\u201cOTIC name\u201d must be any of the North American OTICs, which are listed <a href=\"https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#otics-list\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul><div>In the event that the question is not resolved before the question closes for forecasting, the INFER team will wait until late April to resolve this question to allow for delays in updating the catalog. Note that the question will be resolved as of the \u201cDate of issued certificate\u201d listed in the catalog.</div><div><br></div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1414", "question": "On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world\u2019s most valuable company by market cap?", "background": "\r\n    \r\n    \r\n    Market capitalization (or \u201cmarket cap\u201d) is a way of measuring the size of a company by calculating the total value of a company\u2019s shares on the open market (<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Investopedia</a>, <a href=\"https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/market-cap\" target=\"_blank\">Fidelity</a>). A global ranking of companies by market capitalization is available on <a href=\"https://companiesmarketcap.com\" target=\"_blank\">CompaniesMarketCap</a>.\u00a0\r\n    \r\n  <div><br></div><div>Nvidia has become an essential player in artificial intelligence, as the technologies the company produces underpin many of the major advancements and applications of AI (<a href=\"https://www.plus500.com/en/instruments/nvda/nvidia-artificial-intelligence-contributions~2\" target=\"_blank\">Plus500</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2023/03/29/why-nvidia-matters-for-the-future-of-ai/\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>). The demand for AI chips has skyrocketed Nvidia\u2019s value in recent months, leading it to briefly become the world\u2019s largest company by market cap in June 2024, before falling back to third behind Microsoft and Apple (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/nvidia-passes-microsoft-in-market-cap-is-most-valuable-public-company.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/03/nvidia-just-became-the-largest-company-on-the-stoc/\" target=\"_blank\">The Motley Fool</a>).\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div>Many expect the value of Nvidia to continue to rise, with some predicting market caps as high as $5 trillion by 2026 or $10 trillion by 2030 (<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/19/prediction-nvidia-five-trillion-generative-ai/\" target=\"_blank\">The Motley Fool</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2024/06/07/prediction-nvidia-stock-will-reach-10-trillion-market-cap-by-2030/\" target=\"_blank\">Forbes</a>). However, others have suggested that we may be in an AI bubble and that its costs and unclear value could cause Nvidia\u2019s value to fall back to earth (<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-nvidia-investors-can-learn-from-the-roaring-1920s-and-the-radio-bubble-206aaf79\" target=\"_blank\">MarketWatch</a>, <a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-ai-stocks-bubble-james-ferguson-intel-cisco-chatgpt-2024-7\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: \u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved by comparing market capitalizations on <a href=\"https://companiesmarketcap.com\" target=\"_blank\">CompaniesMarketCap</a> on 31 May 2025. Note that 31 May 2025 is a Saturday, so market caps will be based on the end-of-day stock prices on 30 May 2025.</div>\r\n  \r\n  \r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1461", "question": "Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?", "background": "For the purposes of this question, an economic collapse is defined as ANY one of these scenarios occurring:\r\n    \r\n  <ul>\r\n<li>Egypt\u2019s main stock market index, the EGX 30, decreases in value by at least 30% over one month.</li>\r\n<li>Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate reaches 50%.</li>\r\n<li>Egypt enters into default on its external debts.</li>\r\n</ul><div><br></div><div>Egypt is facing significant economic challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation. As of August 2024, the annual headline inflation rate rose to 26.2%, following a peak of 38% in September 2023 (<a href=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/inflation-cpi\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Economics</a>). The Egyptian pound has lost about 50% of its value over the past two years, contributing to severe cost-of-living increases. (<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/05/the-egyptian-pound-is-amongst-the-worst-performing-currencies-in-2023.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>).\u00a0</div><div><br></div><div>The EGX 30, Egypt's primary stock market index, has shown volatility, with analysts warning that continued instability could lead to sharp declines. Additionally, Egypt has quadrupled its external debt since 2015, and is equivalent to about 43% of GDP (<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-foreign-debt-rises-35-billion-last-quarter-2023-2024-05-09/#:~:text=Total%20foreign%20debt%20rose%20to,and%20support%20an%20overvalued%20currency.\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). These factors raise concerns about the potential for an economic collapse if significant adverse developments occur.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:\u00a0</b></div><div>This question will be resolved \u201cYes\u201d if any of the following criteria are met:</div><ul>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>EGX 30 decline of at least 30% over one month: </b>The closing price of the <a href=\"https://www.egx.com.eg/en/Indices.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">EGX 30</a> on the last trading day of the month is at least 30% lower than its price on the last closing day of the previous month. More historical data on the EGX 30\u2019s prices is available on <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/indices/egx30-historical-data\" target=\"_blank\">Investing.com</a>.</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Egypt\u2019s inflation reaches 50%: </b>Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate (\u201cHeadline (y/y)\u201d) for any given month is at least 50%, as reported by the <a href=\"https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates\" target=\"_blank\">Central Bank of Egypt</a>. Historical data is available <a href=\"https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates/historical-data\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.\u00a0</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<b>Egypt defaults on external debts: </b>Credible financial news sources or international financial institutions (such as the IMF, World Bank, or major credit rating agencies) report that the country\u2019s government has entered a form of sovereign default, such as by missing a payment on external debt obligations and not making the payment within an applicable grace period or by announcing a moratorium on external debt payments. A default will be considered to have occurred at the earliest instance reported by a major financial news source or institution.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n  ", "source": "infer", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xc7599c7b33b64f891750b57439384d163f547600fed4a6007918751f8f37740d", "question": "No Ethereum all time high in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ethereum (ETH) never reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 according to Binance between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0x1070c27e30447364ed6602778729203d29aaa8860cb0a24779eb3a26f68b245f", "question": "Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?", "background": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the there are 6 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d \n\nFor example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x5401278f7f9c9df79552148e2b280dea9ea91431a77c2c46686b8bec598970e7", "question": "Ethereum all time high in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,868.00 according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xebd09819ef04d3d8c255e4012c96bb7d4e37315d0b96e8d9ec82c1ad010799d4", "question": "Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price of 15,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.\n\nNote: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Binance (e.g. ETH only hit 10k on other exchanges but 15k on Binance), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x0ebf9290c87facccf4b0d646b175e66cdeddd3d6fc887aee32b88a04e34ce939", "question": "Tether Insolvent in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x4a5b5f52c6e7f2af6b06462c92d12ea7bd1662c87be11828da0722ff32373b36", "question": "Fed rate hike in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between April 25 and December 18, 2024's Fed meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December 18 meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x96fa956d781862402d88ed4c35217199ece4f8032fa4d8635f103629e1c493b1", "question": "Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Milady has a higher floor price than Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) for at least 1 continuous hour between May 20 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be Blur's chart for each NFT, specifically the red line for 1d sales, for the dates within this market's range (Milady: https://blur.io/eth/collection/milady, BAYC: https://blur.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub). If Blur becomes unavailable or ceases to report figures, another credible source may be used.\n\nNote: If the 1 hour long period starts at e.g. December 31, 2024 11:20 PM ET it will still count for this market.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x9c66114d2dfe2139325cc7a408a5cd5d2e73b55d919e2141b3a0ed83fc15895d", "question": "Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?", "background": "This market will immediately resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for bitcoin BTC-USD between 1 Jan '24 00:00 and 31 Dec '24 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final \u201cHigh\u201d price of 100,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the BTC-USD \"High\" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD with \u201c1m\u201d and \u201cCandles\u201d selected on the top bar.\n\nTo see the \"High\" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value \"H\" at the top of the chart.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase BTC-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.\n\nNote: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Coinbase (e.g. BTC only hit 75k on other exchanges but 100k on Coinbase), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0x9d1f0296f3a016727193d2b45704e0debc3b8048fe0715f8bb1e91550d321872", "question": "Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?", "background": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the there is exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d \n\nThis market may resolve to \"Yes\" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.\n\nFor example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0xc8f2b2277aa63627071a3f0db8dd70e7fc490219b28f9486bf0bc0c0434f7b77", "question": "Solana ETF approved in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any spot Solana ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xf808e139238945c244d8d54011908c2856a2a53b51f3c28ffaeb95de48677fae", "question": "Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between Feb 28 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xcd30346281d728bb08a85f4e36adccdd3c443300fa74aaefc7a4ee83744b4f49", "question": "Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if FTX begins customer reimbursements in Q4 2024 (between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf customer reimbursements begin before the start of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", customer reimbursements must actually begin; mere announcements that payouts will begin within this market's timeframe will not count toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FTX and the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x2c2dc19efecfd9943c54e116f3a07f57026d3f38ad7c6e0019c628baceb5bc14", "question": "Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024?", "background": "This is a market on whether the market capitalization of $USDC (USD Coin) will surpass that of $USDT (Tether) within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily \"Market Cap\" data.\n\nThis market's timeframe spans from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (inclusive).\n\nIf, according to the resolution source, $USDC has a greater market cap than $USDT for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d. If the market cap of $USDC is equal to or lower than that of $USDT for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d. This market may only resolve to \"No\" once the December 31 market cap data is available.\n\nNote that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps.\n\nIf the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through January 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xbd3ed58e5472776516683cce181509b05bd07ef687997795d1cfb70fa7c4bc55", "question": "Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of 250,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.\n\nNote: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Binance (e.g. BTC only hit 100k on other exchanges but 250k on Binance), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x4b1741127012a0e4d884c65fbb01628778dc03486dd6c55cefce972950db93a4", "question": "Doge ETF approved in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x08a5663d450331222bc832c59646bff249671319340cbde738c13f71b9e51c21", "question": "Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024?", "background": "This is a market on whether the market capitalization of Ethena's $USDe will surpass that of Circle's $USDC within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's \"historical data\" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethena-usde/historical_data and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data respectively, specifically the daily \"Market Cap\" data.\n\nThis market's timeframe spans from April 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (inclusive).\n\nIf, according to the resolution source, $USDe has a greater market cap than $USDC for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d. If the market cap of $USDe is equal to or lower than that of $USDC for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d. This market may only resolve to \"No\" once the December 31 market cap data is available.\n\nNote that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps.\n\nIf the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through January 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xdf27fa31b9fa64575e07fa5af8cb7ff9a2b4e8bc60ffd116999c5eb8fb57945c", "question": "Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Rege-Jean Page is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x1ab07117f9f698f28490f57754d6fe5309374230c95867a7eba572892a11d710", "question": "Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Inside Out 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. \n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0xbb9312495200f165c8e5ea714a2286d1a8f840fe1e50d91c7f82cd1762fb2656", "question": "Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Cosmo Jarvis is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x87ebcc9f6660a5b9613650c3d91bae01f4503b11eb61a782b993bbc3a5d41b04", "question": "Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Joker: Folie \u00e0 Deux' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. \n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x62c1c246437874dc270d9d9019b6228532a394ea2a6ffa36190c7075a2732ae6", "question": "Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. \n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xf404052387b0612112823ad31ca9572150cce046590c61b6c98792eb7b264ed1", "question": "Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Henry Cavill is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x278914894a4377e6c9aebe8372ce8e797d1c4f0f594d66667d25cfc9ae225a63", "question": "Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if an actor other than Aaron Johnson, Henry Cavil, Damson Idris, James Norton, Rege-Jean Page, Cosmo Jarvis, or Tom Hardy is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If no new James Bond actor is announced by the resolution date this market will also resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59", "question": "James Norton announced as next James Bond?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if James Norton is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xbce0ff6f8ee396ec39e76c8b60d747272e8bf4bd65f31d0e131b64aceb0be3b5", "question": "Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Deadpool 3' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. \n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xf80032ad5496e997beb357f01e9fe69382d7c755cde2352eba37410db006c21d", "question": "Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Dune: Part 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. \n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x79f846da98b7a015b9f60e9ac7623bb5abc8f3e20e93da5d5fcc0cf58d5a3fd5", "question": "Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Aaron Taylor-Johnson is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x1742f180a7ff24c2a89f3775e8f4243169085b7a25a50f15c76090b816e4c994", "question": "Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Gross\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Despicable Me 4' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross. \n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x7b33d1d34b1b9414cb9d60d27ac20548b9065f33e61ff3a92ee904c3912b8bc9", "question": "Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is announced that Taylor Swift is engaged to be married between February 11 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Taylor Swift or her official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64", "question": "Will another movie gross most in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the \"Total\" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows any movie other than 'Deadpool 3', 'Joker: Folie \u00e0 Deux', 'Dune: Part 2', 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga', 'Despicable Me 4', or 'Inside Out 2' as the film with the highest total gross for the year 2024 once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nNote: This market is about movies' domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward the movies' gross.\n\nIn the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.\n\nIf there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9", "question": "Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Damson Idris is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x6036a50f1d17982bd212447da143a527bcb1a35569977c739e334eaaec591751", "question": "Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the first decision made by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit results in the reduction of the damages awarded to E. Jean Carroll, totaling $83.3 million in her defamation lawsuit against Donald J. Trump, \u201cE. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump\u201d (22-cv-10016), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly the first decision by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit regarding the reduction of the $83.3 million judgment will be considered for the resolution of this market. Subsequent appeals, including those to the Supreme Court, will not affect this market's resolution.\n\nIf the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit's first decision results in a new trial, settlement, or any other outcome that does not directly reduce the $83.3 million judgment, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe market will resolve to \"No\" if the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit does not issue its first decision regarding the appeal by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the official ruling or documents from the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x0e85e94301db0e38e25f0650ab649c3a4485b5fc9734a8b6abf3d0da0ee6dd55", "question": "Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by his father President Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0x0f99544f8db2651fdafb79636924b4d9ec73c9b61d77a9e56f467c6b0c932c3d", "question": "Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia without interruption from March 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Russia, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0xfad14932325af166b81190e1f3c0d7ed892357551e5a77f064813f2de5a1b40a", "question": "Canada federal election in 2024?", "background": "The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, however federal elections have been called early numerous times in Canada's history, most recently in 2021.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to be held in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\n\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xe610902a9cbe5a4969466a5b853f9165fa071b9804aa7f71db768db5c757b96b", "question": "Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xdfd4276c3144acea7037bc3c4d9924f8a79de9af98ce7d798b6086ff0c5e7dc0", "question": "COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency (e.g. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, NIH, etc.) definitively states that the initial COVID-19 virus came from a lab by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xd3328f8684b20c8b4be97ef06d55d9543e2669b0c6d9d9187ea4996c8ac03864", "question": "TikTok banned in the US in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x296c9bdd15f0d09806f025b146dd14fe27f6ef624b83c5302f47a980669633c0", "question": "Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if founder of Silk Road Ross William Ulbricht, aka Dread Pirate Roberts, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joe Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xd08318327c3e9e9c21841272dfee84da6de9e0b75a41d56a47aca2b34e1c588d", "question": "Supreme Court vacancy in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between April 7 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  \n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xe8e9fd6e57c4121f32009625d40cf99bff88f5219b06282db9bf8db414ba226b", "question": "Will America ban Zyn in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States federal government bans Zyn nicotine pouches from sale or purchase within the US by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xb36d9c4fb1fac427ee93c27730c7c2b88c8e6000c7ff693bbcab68458b658f6c", "question": "Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024?", "background": "If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xf4078ddd084c8979c81f1ac4674d5e846b87a13b7f568bdd402296181e83b4d9", "question": "Will Biden pardon SBF?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Bankman-Fried (SBF) receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xd2d4628c6119f20763ac855b54db1fbb408b518d81bbed249bf5b09fb72f4537", "question": "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78", "question": "Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if exactly four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX\u2019s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0xf5696d8eb7ee5bb4fdd58465f502c8962c8972a4de4d64077662b41e658d2401", "question": "OpenSea token in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenSea announces a token by December 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET, or to \"No\" otherwise.\n\n\"Announces a token by December 31\" means they confirm by December 31 that they will have a token, regardless of when the token actually launches.\n\nThe resolution source is OpenSea (https://opensea.io/blog/, https://twitter.com/opensea, etc.).", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xc7aaca62c77ab866abe4e2f39d11b6b7362a274077c5a388c3bd04bda35e0257", "question": "GPT-5 not announced in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if OpenAI does NOT announce the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nOnly official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"Yes\" until its timeframe has expired and the completion of GPT-5 has not yet been announced.\n\nGPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0x715a00736b0e47286256eed499755204dc6750942c262ef79624579b4dfa04a1", "question": "Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Meissner effect claimed in the paper https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999 is replicated by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of the replication(s). This market may only resolve once a definitive consensus is reached.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xa47e90f1232464539a75336de9fa41856285bc2dd5250ee509084ee90cf2d26e", "question": "Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are definitively proven between October 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549", "question": "GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nOnly official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nIf it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to \"No\". Otherwise, it may not resolve to \"No\" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced.\n\nGPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x9203518d9e229d65d4222d1a6b4ae99ea167abadcfb3d11bb50603428dfc7554", "question": "OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if it is announced that OpenAI has reached a settlement with the New York Times over copyright infringement issues by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xefc3ed55ea013e7f75ad53fa9670d704dba5428417d38a37232092f60ace44fd", "question": "Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX\u2019s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22", "question": "Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are NOT definitively proven in 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThis market may not resolve to 'Yes' until December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET has passed and Satoshi Nakamoto's identity is not definitively proven.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets.. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1", "question": "Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18\u00b0C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn anomaly of 1.18\u00b0C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2023 and/or 2024 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)\" under the column \"No_Smoothing\" in the row \"2024\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x9fce1292bea6748addd9a96632ab7455f64028671816e964a692686573079574", "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xad1b0c00056e2f29ac47f2b410a91f2dda57181d5c01257f6efa395089805558", "question": "Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if social media personality and former professional kickboxer Andrew Tate is found guilty in any jurisdiction of any country of any charge related to sex/human trafficking between January 16 and December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xc471a026180a086c0a887e8ba73d8016bc8dbd9539ef85ea199d666f240aca17", "question": "Iggy Azalea criminal charges in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Australian rapper and model Iggy Azalea is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x425e10e5fa4fad85117c3e0f33c098631f3c400154257ccb6411cde7761113da", "question": "Ansem criminal charges in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ansem (@blknoiz06) is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xed3a181bf912941cd49a24094cfba00ba30d3a48afe00cdabf32041324edc83e", "question": "Is John McAfee alive?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 29 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xc5db10fafffb5283a093c435ce617a61f0127e3a24a57419e7d25550c6b8df38", "question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by North Korea, South Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0x7970aad0f57cc6e4b4227affdb969e8a6db419db839dcf522c451d38175534a3", "question": "Russian nuke in space in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Russian Federation places a nuclear weapon in space (an altitude of 50+ miles above sea level) between February 21, 2024, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "0xea27d1fc974b4aa0756d37bb2c72e9e424b74a271e291b195510dc68399e5071", "question": "Bird flu pandemic in 2024?", "background": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. \n", "source": "polymarket", "source_intro": "We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Amsterdam Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NOUVELLE AMSTERDAM - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Orly will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ORLY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Roland Garros Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - GILLOT-AEROPORT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Cayenne \u2013 F\u00e9lix \u00c9bou\u00e9 Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAYENNE-MATOURY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BALE-MULHOUSE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Dijon-Bourgogne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - DIJON-LONGVIC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lyon\u2013Saint Exup\u00e9ry Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LYON-ST EXUPERY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Juan de Nova Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - JUAN DE NOVA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont\u00e9limar will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONTELIMAR - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rouen Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ROUEN-BOOS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nancy \u2013 Ochey Air Base will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NANCY-OCHEY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tromelin Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROMELIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ajaccio will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - AJACCIO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Alen\u00e7on will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ALENCON - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Laurent will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - SAINT LAURENT - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Caen \u2013 Carpiquet Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CAEN-CARPIQUET - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Brest Bretagne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BREST-GUIPAVAS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nantes Atlantique Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NANTES-BOUGUENAIS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Troyes-Barberey Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TROYES-BARBEREY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CLERMONT-FD - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Marignane will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MARIGNANE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Ploumanac'h will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PLOUMANAC'H - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Lille Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LILLE-LESQUIN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Limoges \u2013 Bellegarde Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LIMOGES-BELLEGARDE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Abbeville will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ABBEVILLE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Mont-de-Marsan will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MONT-DE-MARSAN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Poitiers\u2013Biard Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - POITIERS-BIARD - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Nice will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NICE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Le Puy \u2013 Loudes Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LE PUY-LOUDES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Europa Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - EUROPA - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tarbes\u2013Lourdes\u2013Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TARBES-OSSUN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe De La Hague will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PTE DE LA HAGUE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Girons will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST GIRONS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Gourdon will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - GOURDON - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Rennes\u2013Saint-Jacques Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - RENNES-ST JACQUES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Grande Terre will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - KERGUELEN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Tours will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TOURS - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bordeaux\u2013M\u00e9rignac Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BORDEAUX-MERIGNAC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at La D\u00e9sirade will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LA DESIRADE METEO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Strasbourg Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - STRASBOURG-ENTZHEIM - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Bourges will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - BOURGES - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Saint-Pierre will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - ST-PIERRE - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Martinique Aim\u00e9 C\u00e9saire International Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LAMENTIN-AERO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Toulouse\u2013Blagnac Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - TOULOUSE-BLAGNAC - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at \u00cele de la Possession will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - CROZET - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Embrun will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - EMBRUN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Millau will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - MILLAU - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Perpignan will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - PERPIGNAN - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Reims \u2013 Prunay Aerodrome will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - REIMS-PRUNAY - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D", "question": "What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Pointe-\u00e0-Pitre International Airport will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - LE RAIZET AERO - Daily from M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D.", "source": "dbnomics", "source_intro": "DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "DEXUSEU", "question": "Will the spot exchange rate of US dollars to euros have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h10/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Noon buying rates in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: U.S. Dollars to One Euro.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "WM1NS", "question": "Will USD money supply as measured by M1 have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: announcements (https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/h6.html) and Technical Q&As (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/h6_technical_qa.htm) posted on December 17, 2020.\n\nFor questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE", "question": "Will the number of US software development job postings on Indeed have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: Indeed calculates the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, using a 7-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in January 2021 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the percentage change in job postings.\r\n\r\nIndices are calculated for the U.S., Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, France, and the U.K. In addition for the U.S., indices are calculated for states, the largest metro areas by population.\r\n\r\nFor Frequently Asked Questions regarding Indeed Data, visit https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/.\r\n\r\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information at https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme.\r\n\r\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  The notes from the series: Indeed calculates the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since February 1, 2020, the pre-pandemic baseline. Indeed seasonally adjusts each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. Indeed switched to this new methodology in December 2022 and now reports all historical data using this new methodology. Historical numbers have been revised and may differ significantly from originally reported values. The new methodology applies a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. For more information, see Frequently Asked Questions (https://www.hiringlab.org/indeed-data-faq/) regarding Indeed Data.\n\nCopyrighted: Pre-approval required. Contact Indeed to request permission to use the data at their contact information provided here (https://github.com/hiring-lab/data#readme).\n\nEnd Users are excluded of any warranty and liability on the part of Indeed for the accuracy of the Indeed Data. End Users will refrain from any external distribution of Indeed Data except in oral or written presentations, provided that such portions or derivations are incidental to and supportive of such presentations and, provided further that the End Users shall not distribute or disseminate in such presentations any amount of Indeed Data which could cause such presentations to be susceptible to use substantially as a source of, or substitute for Indeed Data. End Users agree to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the Indeed Data when making it available to third parties in any permissible manner as well as in internal use. End Users agree to not sell or otherwise provide the Indeed Data obtained from Licensee to third parties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb, 1 2020=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BAA10Y", "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield compared to the 10-year Treasury yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond\u00a9 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR).\n\n\u00a92017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \"Moody's\"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information (\"Moody's Information\") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.\nStarting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "AMERIBOR", "question": "Will AMERIBOR, an interest rate based on overnight loans made between banks on the American Financial Exchange, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: AMERIBOR\u00ae (American Interbank Offered Rate) is a transparent benchmark interest rate based on overnight unsecured loans transacted on the American Financial Exchange (AFX). AMERIBOR\u00ae reflects the actual borrowing costs of thousands of small, medium, and regional banks across America. AMERIBOR\u00ae is also useful for larger banks and financial institutions that do business with these banks, as well as small and middle market companies..  The notes from the series: Data prior to June 17, 2019 is only available from Monday to Friday (excluding trading holidays).\n\nAMERIBOR\u00ae (American Interbank Offered Rate) is a benchmark interest rate based on overnight unsecured loans transacted on the American Financial Exchange (AFX). AMERIBOR\u00ae is calculated as the transaction volume weighted average interest rate of the daily transactions in the AMERIBOR\u00ae overnight unsecured loan market on the AFX. More details about AMERIBOR\u00ae methodology can be found on the source's website (https://ameribor.net), under the Resources section.\n\nAMERIBOR\u00ae is a registered trademark of the American Financial Exchange (AFX). \u00a9 Copyright, American Financial Exchange (AFX). All Rights Reserved..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "T10YFF", "question": "Will the yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury bond and the Effective Federal Funds Rate (interest rate) have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR).\nStarting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "WLRRAL", "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount associated with Federal Reserve reverse repurchase agreements have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reverse repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are sold to a set of counterparties under an agreement to buy them back from the same party on a specified date at the same price plus interest. Reverse repurchase agreements may be conducted with foreign official and international accounts as a service to the holders of these accounts. All other reverse repurchase agreements, including transactions with primary dealers and a set of eligible money market funds, are open market operations intended to manage the supply of reserve balances; reverse repurchase agreements absorb reserve balances from the banking system for the length of the agreement. As with repurchase agreements, the naming convention used here reflects the transaction from the counterparties' perspective; the Federal Reserve receives cash in a reverse repurchase agreement and provides collateral to the counterparties..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DAAA", "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above. \n\n\u00a9 2017, Moody\u2019s Corporation, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Inc., Moody\u2019s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \u201cMoody\u2019s\u201d).  All rights reserved. Moody\u2019s ratings and other information (\u201cMoody\u2019s Information\u201d) are proprietary to Moody\u2019s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws.  Moody\u2019s Information is licensed to Client by Moody\u2019s.  MOODY\u2019S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "NFCICREDIT", "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Credit Subindex have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.\n\n\"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\"\n\n\"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.\" Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BAMLC0A1CAAA", "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of AAA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AAA.\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "WRBWFRBL", "question": "Will the total dollar amount of reserve balances held with Federal Reverse Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks are the difference between \"total factors supplying reserve funds\" and \"total factors, other than reserve balances, absorbing reserve funds.\" This item includes balances at the Federal Reserve of all depository institutions that are used to satisfy reserve requirements and balances held in excess of balance requirements. It excludes reserves held in the form of cash in bank vaults, and excludes service-related deposits..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DBAA", "question": "Will Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: These instruments are based on bonds with maturities 20 years and above. \n\n\u00a9 2017, Moody\u2019s Corporation, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Inc., Moody\u2019s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, \u201cMoody\u2019s\u201d).  All rights reserved. Moody\u2019s ratings and other information (\u201cMoody\u2019s Information\u201d) are proprietary to Moody\u2019s and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws.  Moody\u2019s Information is licensed to Client by Moody\u2019s.  MOODY\u2019S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "ECBDFR", "question": "Will the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate for the euro area have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The rate on the deposit facility, which banks may use to make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem. Data refer to the changing composition of the Euro Area, taking into account the composition of the euro area at the time to which the statistics relate. For more details, see the ECB Statistics Bulletin's General Notes (https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=10000023).\r\n\r\nCopyright, 2021, European Central Bank (ECB). Reprinted with permission..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "BAMLHE00EHYIOAS", "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of below investment grade corporate debt issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index tracks the performance of Euro denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets. Qualifying securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch). Qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining term to maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of Euro 100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and euro domestic markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. Defaulted, warrant-bearing and euro legacy currency securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until\nthe end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "ICSA", "question": "Will the weekly number of initial unemployment claims have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Number.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Saturday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "WGS10YR", "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Averages of business days. For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DGS7", "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 7-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "WLCFLL", "question": "Will the weekly dollar amount of loans made by the Federal Reserve under its liquidity and credit facilities have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Loans is the sum of \"Primary credit,\" \"Secondary credit,\" \"Seasonal credit,\" \"Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility,\" and \"Other credit extensions..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "DEXKOUS", "question": "Will the spot exchange rate of South Korean won to US dollars have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h10/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Noon buying rates in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: South Korean Won to One U.S. Dollar.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DCOILBRENTEU", "question": "Will the price of Brent crude oil have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes (http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Barrel.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "SOFR90DAYAVG", "question": "Will the 90-day average of the Federal Reserve's Secured Overnight Financing Rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: As an extension of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the SOFR Averages are compounded averages of the SOFR over rolling 30-, 90-, and 180-calendar day periods.\r\n\r\nThe SOFR Index measures the cumulative impact of compounding the SOFR on a unit of investment over time, with the initial value set to 1 on April 2, 2018, the first value date of the SOFR. The SOFR Index value reflects the effect of compounding the SOFR each business day and allows the calculation of compounded SOFR averages over custom time periods..  The notes from the series: As an extension of the additional documentation about the Treasury Repo Reference Rates. (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/treasury-repo-reference-rates-information).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "TOTCI", "question": "Will the total dollar amount representing all commercial and industrial loans made by commercial banks in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DFEDTARL", "question": "Will the lower limit of the target range of the federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Open Market Committee have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This series represents lower limit of the federal funds target range established by the Federal Open Market Committee. The data updated each day is the data effective as of that day..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, 7-Day ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "BAMLC0A4CBBBEY", "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of BBB in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BBB. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BAMLC0A2CAAEY", "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of AA in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA AA US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating AA. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BAMLHE00EHYIEY", "question": "Will the effective yield of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of below investment grade corporate debt issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index tracks the performance of Euro denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the euro domestic or eurobond markets. Qualifying securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch). Qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining term to maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of Euro 100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and euro domestic markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. Defaulted, warrant-bearing and euro legacy currency securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until\nthe end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "DGS5", "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 5-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "OBMMIFHA30YF", "question": "Will the 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage index have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices\u2122 (OBMMI\u2122) is calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across over one-third of all mortgage transactions nationwide. OBMMI includes multiple mortgage pricing indices developed around the most popular products and specific borrower and loan level attributes..  The notes from the series: This index includes rate locks from Federal Housing Authority loans.\n\nOptimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi/)\u2122 (OBMMI\u2122) is calculated from actual locked rates with consumers across over one-third of all mortgage transactions nationwide. OBMMI includes multiple mortgage pricing indices developed around the most popular products and specific borrower and loan level attributes.\n\nEach index is calculated as the average of all appropriate rate locks locked through the Optimal Blue product eligibility and pricing engine on a given day. More details about methodology and definitions are available here (https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi/)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DGS2", "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 2-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BAMLC0A0CMEY", "question": "Will the effective yield of the ICE BofA Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have an investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody's, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, \"global\" securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US domestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index.\n\nICE BofA Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:\nIndex constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.\nWhen the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "CREACBW027SBOG", "question": "Will the amount of money representing all commercial real estate loans made by commercial banks in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DTWEXAFEGS", "question": "Will the Nominal Advanced Foreign Economies US Dollar Index, a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of broad index currencies that are advanced foreign economies, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h10/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Jan 2006=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "ANFCI", "question": "Will the Chicago Fed's Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The Chicago Fed\u2019s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets and the traditional and \u201cshadow\u201d banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.\n\nThe adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.\n\nFor further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's web site: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Friday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "GASREGW", "question": "Will the average price of regular gas in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets, 8:00AM Monday. The price represents self-service unless only full-service is available and includes all taxes. See (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html) for further definitions. Regular Gasoline has an antiknock index (average of the research octane rating and the motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88. Octane requirements may vary by altitude..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Dollars per Gallon.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "DGS30", "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 30-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Yields on actively traded non-inflation-indexed issues adjusted to constant maturities. The 30-year Treasury constant maturity series was discontinued on February 18, 2002, and reintroduced on February 9, 2006.\nFor further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "WSHOSHO", "question": "Will the total dollar amount of securities held by US Federal Reserve Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: The amount of securities held by Federal Reserve Banks. This quantity is the cumulative result of permanent open market operations: outright purchases or sales of securities, conducted by the Federal Reserve. Section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act defines the securities that the Federal Reserve is authorized to buy and sell..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "NASDAQCOM", "question": "Will the NASDAQ Composite Index, which represents the daily index value at market close, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations.  The notes from the series: The observations for the NASDAQ Composite Index represent the daily index value at market close. The market typically closes at 4 PM ET, except for holidays when it sometimes closes early.\n\nThe NASDAQ Composite Index is a market capitalization weighted index with more than 3000 common equities listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts (ADRs), common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and tracking stocks. The index includes all NASDAQ listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debentures.\n\nCopyright \u00c2\u00a9 2016, NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Index Feb 5, 1971=100.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DTB4WK", "question": "Will the Federal Reserve's 4-week secondary market treasury bill rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Discount basis..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "WRMFNS", "question": "Will Retail Money Market Funds, a component of M2, a measure of USD money supply, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h6/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Monday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "SOFR30DAYAVG", "question": "Will the 30-day average of the Federal Reserve's Secured Overnight Financing Rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: As an extension of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the SOFR Averages are compounded averages of the SOFR over rolling 30-, 90-, and 180-calendar day periods.\r\n\r\nThe SOFR Index measures the cumulative impact of compounding the SOFR on a unit of investment over time, with the initial value set to 1 on April 2, 2018, the first value date of the SOFR. The SOFR Index value reflects the effect of compounding the SOFR each business day and allows the calculation of compounded SOFR averages over custom time periods..  The notes from the series: As an extension of the additional documentation about the Treasury Repo Reference Rates. (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/treasury-repo-reference-rates-information).  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "RRPONTSYAWARD", "question": "Will the award rate of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in overnight temporary open market operations have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The award rate is the rate given to all accepted propositions for the collateral type reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.\r\n\r\nTemporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.\r\n\r\nA reverse repurchase agreement (known as reverse repo or RRP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Market Committee sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments.\r\n\r\nSee FAQs (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html) for more information..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "RPONTSYD", "question": "Will the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities repurchased overnight by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations  have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.\n\nTemporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.\n\nA repurchase agreement (known as repo or RP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Maker Committee buys a security from an eligible counterparty under an agreement to resell that security in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of US Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "T5YIE", "question": "Will the US' 5-year breakeven inflation rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average.\nStarting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "WTREGEN", "question": "Will the weekly average of deposits other than reserve balances held in the US treasury's general accounts with Federal Reserve Banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: This account is the primary operational account of the U.S. Treasury at the Federal Reserve. Virtually all U.S. government disbursements are made from this account. Some tax receipts, primarily individual and other tax payments made directly to the Treasury, are deposited in this account, and it is also used to collect funds from sales of Treasury debt..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "DTB1YR", "question": "Will the Federal Reserve's 1-year secondary market treasury bill rate have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Discount Basis.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DGS20", "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 20-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DGS6MO", "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 6-month constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "RESPPANWW", "question": "Will the total dollar amount of assets held by all US Federal Reserve banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h41/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: N/A.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Millions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BAMLH0A3HYCEY", "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of CCC or below in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA US Corporate C Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating CCC or below. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BAMLH0A2HYBEY", "question": "Will the effective yield of securities with an investment grade rating of B in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofA US Corporate B Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating B. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "TMBACBW027SBOG", "question": "Will the total dollar amount of mortgage-backed securities held by all US commercial banks have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h8/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>.  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Billions of U.S. Dollars.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Wednesday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "DEXUSUK", "question": "Will the spot exchange rate of US dollars to UK pound sterling have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h10/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: Noon buying rates in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: U.S. Dollars to One U.K. Pound Sterling.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "MORTGAGE30US", "question": "Will the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average in the US have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: On November 17, 2022, Freddie Mac changed the methodology of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey\u00ae (PMMS\u00ae). The weekly mortgage rate is now based on applications submitted to Freddie Mac from lenders across the country. For more information regarding Freddie Mac\u2019s enhancement, see their research note (https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20221103-freddie-macs-newly-enhanced-mortgage-rate-survey).\n\nData are provided \u201cas is\u201d by Freddie Mac\u00ae, with no warranties of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy or implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Use of the data is at the user\u2019s sole risk. In no event will Freddie Mac be liable for any damages arising out of or related to the data, including but not limited to direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages, whether under a contract, tort, or any other theory of liability, even if Freddie Mac is aware of the possibility of such damages.\n\nCopyright, 2016, Freddie Mac. Reprinted with permission..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Weekly, Ending Thursday ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "DFII30", "question": "Will the market yield on US treasury securities at 30-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis and inflation-indexed, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: For questions on the data, please contact the data source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%\r\nFor questions on FRED functionality, please contact: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/.  The notes from the series: For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology)..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BAMLC0A4CBBB", "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BBB in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index, a subset of the ICE BofA US Corporate Master Index tracking the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. This subset includes all securities with a given investment grade rating BBB.\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily, Close ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS", "question": "Will the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets securities rated BB1 or lower within major domestic and Eurobond markets, have increased by {resolution_date} as compared to its value on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The notes from the release: N/A.  The notes from the series: This data represents the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) for the ICE BofA High Yield Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which includes only securities rated BB1 or lower. The same inclusion rules apply for this series as those that apply for ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMCBPITRIV?cid=32413).\n\nThe ICE BofA OASs are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond's OAS, weighted by market capitalization. When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.\n\nCertain indices and index data included in FRED are the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC (\u201cICE DATA\u201d) and used under license. ICE\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ICE DATA OR ITS AFFILIATES AND BOFA\u00ae IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION LICENSED BY BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION AND ITS AFFILIATES (\u201cBOFA\u201d) AND MAY NOT BE USED WITHOUT BOFA\u2019S PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS, EXPRESS AND/OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, INCLUDING WITH REGARD TO THE INDICES, INDEX DATA AND ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM. NEITHER ICE DATA, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY PROVIDERS SHALL BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INDICES OR THE INDEX DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF. THE INDICES AND INDEX DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN \u201cAS IS\u201d BASIS AND YOUR USE IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ICE DATA, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE THIRD PARTY SUPPLIERS DO NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND FRED, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.\n\nCopyright, 2023, ICE Data Indices. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of ICE Data Indices.\n\nThe end of day Index values, Index returns, and Index statistics (\u201cTop Level Data\u201d) are being provided for your internal use only and you are not authorized or permitted to publish, distribute or otherwise furnish Top Level Data to any third-party without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nNeither ICE Data, its affiliates nor any of its third party suppliers shall have any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Top Level Data furnished through FRED, or for delays, interruptions or omissions therein nor for any lost profits, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages.\nThe Top Level Data is not investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided in the Top Level Data is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions.\nYou shall not use any Indices as a reference index for the purpose of creating financial products (including but not limited to any exchange-traded fund or other passive index-tracking fund, or any other financial instrument whose objective or return is linked in any way to any Index) without prior written approval of ICE Data.\nICE Data, their affiliates or their third party suppliers have exclusive proprietary rights in the Top Level Data and any information and software received in connection therewith.\nYou shall not use or permit anyone to use the Top Level Data for any unlawful or unauthorized purpose.\nAccess to the Top Level Data is subject to termination in the event that any agreement between FRED and ICE Data terminates for any reason.\nICE Data may enforce its rights against you as the third-party beneficiary of the FRED Services Terms of Use, even though ICE Data is not a party to the FRED Services Terms of Use.\nThe FRED Services Terms of Use, including but limited to the limitation of liability, indemnity and disclaimer provisions, shall extend to third party suppliers..  Additional background of the series:  1. the units of the series: Percent.  2. the seasonal adjustments of the series:  Not Seasonally Adjusted  3. the update frequency: Daily ", "source": "fred", "source_intro": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources.You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Shakhriyar Mamedyarov have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Magnus Carlsen have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nino Batsiashvili have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Kaylee McKeown still hold the world record for 50m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?", "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Magnus Carlsen have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Vaishali Rameshbabu have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "b26882a6cd665d627ba0aabd2abda5354e7d5a7c6c61a5fb6791d1eb24c255db", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Vidit Santosh Gujrathi have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Bibisara Assaubayeva have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Zhu Jiner have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will R\u016bta Meilutyt\u0117 still hold the world record for 50m breaststroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?", "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nana Dzagnidze have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Nana Dzagnidze have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Tan Zhongyi have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will C\u00e9sar Cielo still hold the world record for 50m freestyle in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?", "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "eaf10e98fdc5ddd2227b212f1e446a1937a2e0529b8f89c9a2528cb469e7cc27", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Kate Douglass still hold the world record for 200m breaststroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?", "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Harika Dronavalli have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Arjun Erigaisi have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "c8cc0816ce50a7fc018eccb7e6ed19628dc1f56e1cda26aca4b8f09c4edc7beb", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Leinier Dominguez have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Vincent Keymer have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Wei Yi have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Sarah Sj\u00f6str\u00f6m still hold the world record for 50m freestyle in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?", "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Andriy Govorov still hold the world record for 50m butterfly in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?", "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Thomas Ceccon still hold the world record for 100m backstroke in long course (50 metres) swimming pools on {resolution_date}?", "background": "The world records in swimming are ratified by World Aquatics (formerly known as FINA), the international governing body of swimming. Records can be set in long course (50 metres) or short course (25 metres) swimming pools.\nThe ratification process is described in FINA Rule SW12, and involves submission of paperwork certifying the accuracy of the timing system and the length of the pool, satisfaction of FINA rules regarding swimwear and a negative doping test by the swimmer(s) involved. Records can be set at intermediate distances in an individual race and for the first leg of a relay race. Records which have not yet been fully ratified are marked with a '#' symbol in these lists.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Anna Muzychuk have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Aleksandra Goryachkina have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "a9783d8184c3f43668cc21417788be00fd4ff70eec91064c5539ed5ebb0019e8", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Leinier Dominguez P\u00e9rez have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will R Praggnanandhaa have a FIDE ranking on {resolution_date} as high or higher than their ranking on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Fabiano Caruana have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "04229451304ccf067edaa5d30d22531f0a157af547d6725e50fd28f74dfb15e5", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Sergey Karjakin have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "e26862fb0adcb116476d35f89b9a1e32d5136aba16ec6d2f93a85f2ae272aa3f", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Meri Arabidze have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will Gukesh D have an Elo rating on {resolution_date} that's at least 1% higher than on {forecast_due_date}?", "background": "The International Chess Federation (FIDE) governs international chess competition. Each month, FIDE publishes the lists 'Top 100 Players', 'Top 100 Women', 'Top 100 Juniors' and 'Top 100 Girls' and rankings of countries according to the average rating of their top 10 players and top 10 female players.\nTo create the rankings, FIDE uses the Elo rating system, which is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. The difference in the ratings between two players serves as a predictor of the outcome of a match. Two players with equal ratings who play against each other are expected to score an equal number of wins. A player whose rating is 100 points greater than their opponent's is expected to score 64%; if the difference is 200 points, then the expected score for the stronger player is 76%.\nA player's Elo rating is a number which may change depending on the outcome of rated games played. After every game, the winning player takes points from the losing one. The difference between the ratings of the winner and loser determines the total number of points gained or lost after a game. If the higher-rated player wins, then only a few rating points will be taken from the lower-rated player. However, if the lower-rated player scores an upset win, many rating points will be transferred. The lower-rated player will also gain a few points from the higher rated player in the event of a draw. This means that this rating system is self-correcting. Players whose ratings are too low or too high should, in the long run, do better or worse correspondingly than the rating system predicts and thus gain or lose rating points until the ratings reflect their true playing strength.\nElo ratings are comparative only, and are valid only within the rating pool in which they were calculated, rather than being an absolute measure of a player's strength.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Creutzfeldt\u2013Jakob disease (CJD) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Creutzfeldt\u2013Jakob disease (CJD) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Lassa fever by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Lassa fever is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Trichuriasis (whipworm infection) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Trichuriasis (whipworm infection) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Rickettsial infection by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Rickettsial infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Neonatal conjunctivitis (Ophthalmia neonatorum) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Neonatal conjunctivitis (Ophthalmia neonatorum) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Nocardiosis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Nocardiosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Clostridioides difficile colitis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Clostridioides difficile colitis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Burkholderia infection by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Burkholderia infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Astrovirus infection by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Astrovirus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Echinococcosis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Echinococcosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5b84647ac79598cc907b31cf1a0eb5aa9b35ae2365e8fcd340f335dc7d4f564a", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Tinea manum (ringworm of the hand) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Tinea manum (ringworm of the hand) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for West Nile fever by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, West Nile fever is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Tularemia by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Tularemia is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Fusobacterium infection by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Fusobacterium infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Gnathostomiasis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Gnathostomiasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Cryptosporidiosis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Cryptosporidiosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Nipah virus infection by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Nipah virus infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Microsporidiosis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Microsporidiosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Filariasis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Filariasis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Ureaplasma urealyticum infection by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Ureaplasma urealyticum infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Human T-lymphotropic virus 1 infection by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Human T-lymphotropic virus 1 infection is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Trichinosis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Trichinosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Herpes simplex by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Herpes simplex is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Psittacosis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Psittacosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Tinea barbae (barber's itch) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Tinea barbae (barber's itch) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Anaplasmosis by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Anaplasmosis is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Melioidosis (Whitmore's disease) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Melioidosis (Whitmore's disease) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502", "question": "According to Wikipedia, will a vaccine have been developed for Murine typhus (Endemic typhus) by {resolution_date}?", "background": "According to Wikipedia, Murine typhus (Endemic typhus) is the common name of an infectious disease. A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious or malignant disease. The safety and effectiveness of vaccines has been widely studied and verified. A vaccine typically contains an agent that resembles a disease-causing microorganism and is often made from weakened or killed forms of the microbe, its toxins, or one of its surface proteins. The agent stimulates the body's immune system to recognize the agent as a threat, destroy it, and recognize further and destroy any of the microorganisms associated with that agent that it may encounter in the future.", "source": "wikipedia", "source_intro": "Wikipedia is an online encyclopedia created and edited by volunteers. You're going to predict how questions based on data sourced from Wikipedia will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "REG", "question": "Will REG's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Regency Centers is a preeminent national owner, operator, and developer of shopping centers located in suburban trade areas with compelling demographics. Our portfolio includes thriving properties merchandised with highly productive grocers, restaurants, service providers, and best-in-class retailers that connect to their neighborhoods, communities, and customers. Operating as a fully integrated real estate company, Regency Centers is a qualified real estate investment trust (REIT) that is self-administered, self-managed, and an S&P 500 Index member.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "PEG", "question": "Will PEG's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, operates in electric and gas utility business in the United States. It operates through PSE&G and PSEG Power segments. The PSE&G segment transmits electricity; distributes electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers; and appliance services and repairs to customers through its service territory, as well as invests in solar generation projects, and energy efficiency and related programs. The PSEG Power segment engages in nuclear generation businesses; and supplies power and natural gas to nuclear power plants and gas storage facilities activities. As of December 31, 2023, it had electric transmission and distribution system of 25,000 circuit miles and 866,600 poles; 56 switching stations with an installed capacity of 39,953 megavolt-amperes (MVA), and 235 substations with an installed capacity of 10,382 MVA; 109 MVA aggregate installed capacity for substations; four electric distribution headquarters and five electric sub-headquarters; 18,000 miles of gas mains, 12 gas distribution headquarters, two sub-headquarters, and one meter shop, as well as 56 natural gas metering and regulating stations; and 158 MegaWatts defined conditions of installed PV solar capacity. Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated was founded in 1903 and is based in Newark, New Jersey.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "TJX", "question": "Will TJX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The company sells family apparel, including footwear and accessories; home fashions, such as home basics, furniture, rugs, lighting products, giftware, soft home products, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware, as well as expanded pet, and gourmet food departments; jewelry and accessories; and other merchandise. It offers its products through stores and e-commerce sites. The TJX Companies, Inc. was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "AVY", "question": "Will AVY's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Avery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, Latin, America, and internationally. It provides pressure-sensitive materials comprising papers, plastic films, metal foils, and fabrics; performance tapes products, including tapes for wire harnessing, as well as cable wrapping for automotive, electrical, and general industrial applications; mechanical fasteners, which are precision-extruded and injection-molded plastic devices used in various automotive, general industrial, and retail applications; and other pressure-sensitive adhesive-based materials and converted products under the Fasson, JAC, Yongle, and Avery Dennison brands. The company also offers graphics and reflective products for the architectural, commercial sign, digital printing, and other related market segments; durable cast and reflective films to the construction, automotive, and fleet transportation market segments; reflective films for traffic and safety applications; and pressure-sensitive vinyl and specialty materials designed for digital imaging, screen printing, and sign cutting applications under the Avery Dennison and Mactac brand names. In addition, it provides branding solutions include brand embellishments, graphic tickets, tags, and labels, and sustainable packaging; and information solutions include item-level RFID, visibility and loss prevention, price ticketing and marking, productivity and media solutions, and brand protection and security solutions, as well as care, content, and country of origin compliance solutions. It serves home and personal care, apparel, e-commerce, logistics, food and grocery, pharmaceuticals, and automotive industries. The company was formerly known as Avery International Corporation and changed its name to Avery Dennison Corporation in 1990. Avery Dennison Corporation was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Mentor, Ohio.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "TT", "question": "Will TT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Trane Technologies plc, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, and services of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, custom, and custom and transport refrigeration in Ireland and internationally. It offers air conditioners, exchangers, and handlers; airside and terminal devices; air sourced heat pumps, auxiliary power units; chillers; coils and condensers; gensets; dehumidifiers; ductless; furnaces; home automation products; humidifiers; indoor air quality assessments and related products; large and light commercial unitary products; refrigerant reclamation products; thermostats/controls; transport heater products; variable refrigerant flow products; and water source heat pumps. The company also provides building management, telematic, control, energy efficiency and infrastructure program, geothermal, thermal energy, thermostats, rate chambers, package heating and cooling, temporary heating and cooling, and unitary systems; bus, rail, and multi-pipe heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems; and container, diesel-powered, truck, industrial, rail, self-powered truck, trailer, and vehicle-powered truck refrigeration and air filtration systems, as well as aftermarket and OEM parts and supplies. In addition, it offers energy and facility management, installation and performance contracting, repair and maintenance, and rental services. It markets and sells its products under the Trane and Thermo King brands through sales offices, distributors, and dealers; and through sales and service companies with a supporting chain of distributors. The company was formerly known as Ingersoll-Rand Plc and changed its name to Trane Technologies plc in March 2020. Trane Technologies plc was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Swords, Ireland.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "VMC", "question": "Will VMC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Vulcan Materials Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies construction aggregates primarily in the United States. It operates through four segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, Concrete, and Calcium. The company provides crushed stones, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates; and related products and services that are applied in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities. It also offers asphalt mix and asphalt construction paving services; ready-mixed concrete; and calcium products for the animal feed, plastics, and water treatment industries. The company was formerly known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Vulcan Materials Company. Vulcan Materials Company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "RVTY", "question": "Will RVTY's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Revvity, Inc. provides health sciences solutions, technologies, and services in the Americas, Europe, and Asia, and internationally. The Life Sciences segment provides instruments, reagents, informatics, software, subscriptions, detection, imaging technologies, warranties, training, and services. Its Diagnostics segment provides instruments, reagents, assay platforms, and software products for the early detection of genetic disorders, such as pregnancy and early childhood, as well as infectious disease testing in the diagnostics market. Its products are used for testing and screening genetic abnormalities, disorders, and diseases, including down syndrome, hypothyroidism, muscular dystrophy, infertility, and various metabolic conditions. This segment also develops technologies that enable and support genomic workflows using protein coupled receptor and next-generation DNA sequencing for applications in oncology, immunodiagnostics, and drug discovery. It serves pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, laboratories, academic and research institutions, public health authorities, private healthcare organizations, doctors, and government agencies under the AutoDELFIA, BACS-on-Beads, BIOCHIPs, Bioo Scientific,BoBs , chemagic, Chitas, DELFIA, DELFIA Xpress, DOPlify, EONIS, EUROArray, EUROIMMUN, EUROLabWorkstation, EUROLINE, EUROPattern, Evolution Evoya, explorer, Fontus, Genoglyphix, GSP, Haoyuan, IDS, IDS-i10 IDS-i10T, IDS-iSYS, iLab, iQ, JANUS, LabChip, LifeCycle, LimsLink, Migele, MultiPROBE, NEXTFLEX, NextPrep, Pannoramic, Panthera Puncher, PG-Seq, PGFind PKamp, PreNAT II, Prime, Protein Clear, ProteinEXact, QSigh, QuantiVac, RONIA, Sciclone, SimplicityChrom, Specimen Gate,Superflex, Symbio, T-SPOT, Touch, Twister, Vanadis, VariSpec, ViaCord VICTOR 2D, and Zephyr brand name. The company was formerly known as PerkinElmer, Inc. and changed its name to Revvity, Inc. in April 2023. Revvity, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "AES", "question": "Will AES's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "The AES Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a diversified power generation and utility company in the United States and internationally. The company owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries; owns and/or operates utilities to generate or purchase, distribute, transmit, and sell electricity to end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors; and generates and sells electricity on the wholesale market. It uses various fuels and technologies to generate electricity, such as coal, gas, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass, as well as renewables comprising energy storage and landfill gas. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 34,596 megawatts and distributes power to 2.6 million customers. The company was formerly known as Applied Energy Services, Inc. and changed its name to The AES Corporation in April 2000. The AES Corporation was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "HPQ", "question": "Will HPQ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "HP Inc. provides personal computing and other digital access devices, imaging and printing products, and related technologies, solutions, and services worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, commercial mobility devices, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, support, and services, as well as hybrid systems, such as video conferencing solutions, cameras, headsets, voice, and related software products. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions, and services, as well as focuses on graphics and 3D printing and personalization solutions in the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses, and large enterprises, including customers in the government, health, and education sectors. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "INTC", "question": "Will INTC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Intel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells computing and related products and services worldwide. It operates through Client Computing Group, Data Center and AI, Network and Edge, Mobileye, and Intel Foundry Services segments. The company's products portfolio comprises central processing units and chipsets, system-on-chips (SoCs), and multichip packages; mobile and desktop processors; hardware products comprising graphics processing units (GPUs), domain-specific accelerators, and field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs); and memory and storage, connectivity and networking, and other semiconductor products. It also offers silicon devices and software products; and optimization solutions for workloads, such as AI, cryptography, security, storage, networking, and leverages various features supporting diverse compute environments. In addition, the company develops and deploys advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), and autonomous driving technologies and solutions; and provides advanced process technologies backed by an ecosystem of IP, EDA, and design services, as well as systems of chips, including advanced packaging technologies, software and accelerate bring-up, and integration of chips and driving standards. Further, it delivers and deploys intelligent edge platforms that allow developers to achieve agility and drive automation using AI for efficient operations with data integrity, as well as provides hardware and software platforms, tools, and ecosystem partnerships for digital transformation from the cloud to edge. The company serves original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, cloud service providers, and other manufacturers and service providers. It has a strategic agreement with Synopsys, Inc. to develop EDA and IP solutions; and ARM that enables chip designers to build optimized compute SoCs on the Intel 18A process. Intel Corporation was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "EVRG", "question": "Will EVRG's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Evergy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in the United States. The company generates electricity through coal, landfill gas, uranium, and natural gas and oil sources, as well as solar, wind, other renewable sources. It serves residences, commercial firms, industrials, municipalities, and other electric utilities. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "MO", "question": "Will MO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. The company offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and snus products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. It sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. The company was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "CPT", "question": "Will CPT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Camden Property Trust, an S&P 500 Company, is a real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition, and construction of multifamily apartment communities. Camden owns and operates 172 properties containing 58,250 apartment homes across the United States. Upon completion of 5 properties currently under development, the Company's portfolio will increase to 59,996 apartment homes in 177 properties. Camden has been recognized as one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by FORTUNE magazine for 17 consecutive years, most recently ranking #24.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "PSA", "question": "Will PSA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500 and FT Global 500, is a REIT that primarily acquires, develops, owns, and operates self-storage facilities. At June 30, 2024, we had: (i) interests in 3,049 self-storage facilities located in 40 states with approximately 219 million net rentable square feet in the United States and (ii) a 35% common equity interest in Shurgard Self Storage Limited (Euronext Brussels: SHUR), which owned 281 self-storage facilities located in seven Western European nations with approximately 16 million net rentable square feet operated under the Shurgard brand. Our headquarters are located in Glendale, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "MS", "question": "Will MS's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The Institutional Securities segment offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity, and other securities, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, real estate, and project finance. This segment also provides equity and fixed income products comprising sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services; foreign exchange and commodities; corporate and commercial real estate loans, commercial mortgage and secured lending facilities, and financing for sales and trading customers, and asset-backed and mortgage lending; and wealth management services, investment, and research services. The Wealth Management segment offers financial advisor-led brokerage, custody, administrative, and investment advisory services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; workplace services, including stock plan administration; annuity and insurance products; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services to individual investors and small to medium-sized businesses and institutions. The Investment Management segment provides equity, fixed income, alternatives and solutions, and liquidity and overlay services to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, third-party fund sponsors, corporations, and individuals through institutional and intermediary channels. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "KMX", "question": "Will KMX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. It operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. The CarMax Sales Operations segment offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; used vehicle auctions; extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale; and reconditioning and vehicle repair services. The CarMax Auto Finance segment provides financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum and arrangements with various financial institutions. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "TMUS", "question": "Will TMUS's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to customers in the postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale and other services. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, tablets, home broadband routers, and other mobile communication devices, as well as wireless devices and accessories; financing through equipment installment plans; reinsurance for device insurance policies and extended warranty contracts; leasing through JUMP! On Demand; and High Speed Internet services. In addition, the company offers services, devices, and accessories under the T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile brands through its owned and operated retail stores, T-Mobile app and customer care channels, and its websites. It also sells its devices to dealers and other third-party distributors for resale through independent third-party retail outlets and various third-party websites. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington. T-Mobile US, Inc. operate as a subsidiary Deutsche Telekom AG", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "MDT", "question": "Will MDT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients worldwide. The Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves; and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and other products. The Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers medical devices and implants, biologic solutions, spinal cord stimulation and brain modulation systems, implantable drug infusion systems, and interventional products, as well as nerve ablation system under the Accurian name. The segment offers its products for spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, anesthesiologists, orthopedic surgeons, urologists, urogynecologists, and interventional radiologists, as well as ear, nose, and throat specialists; and energy surgical instruments. The Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure and electrosurgery products, AI-powered surgical video and analytics platform, robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology products, gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, and therapies to treat other non-exclusive diseases and conditions; and patient monitoring and airway management products. The Diabetes Operating Unit segment provides insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems, and InPen, a smart insulin pen system. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Galway, Ireland.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "ETSY", "question": "Will ETSY's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Etsy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Australia, and France. Its primary marketplace is Etsy.com that connects artisans and entrepreneurs with various consumers. The company also offers Reverb, a musical instrument marketplace; Depop, a fashion resale marketplace; and Elo7, a Brazil-based marketplace for handmade and unique items. In addition, it offers various seller services, including Etsy Payments, a payment processing service; Etsy Ads, an advertising platform; and Shipping Labels, which allows sellers in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and India to purchase discounted shipping labels. Further, the company provides the Etsy Purchase Protection program that is designed to help buyers; the Etsy Share and Save program for sellers to save on Etsy fees for sales that drive to their Etsy shop from their own channels. Additionally, it offers educational resources comprising blog posts, video tutorials, Etsy Seller Handbook, Etsy.com online forums, and insights; Etsy Teams, a platform to build personal relationships with other Etsy sellers; and a Star Seller program. The company was formerly known as Indieco, Inc changed its name to Etsy, Inc. in June 2006. Etsy, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Brooklyn, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "PPG", "question": "Will PPG's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "PPG Industries, Inc. manufactures and distributes paints, coatings, and specialty materials in the United States, Canada, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Industrial Coatings. The Performance Coatings segment offers coatings, solvents, adhesives, sealants, sundries, and software for automotive and commercial transport/fleet repair and refurbishing, light industrial coatings, and specialty coatings for signs; wood stains; paints, thermoplastics, pavement marking products, and other advanced technologies for pavement marking for government, commercial infrastructure, painting, and maintenance contractors; and coatings, sealants, transparencies, transparent armor, adhesives, engineered materials, and packaging and chemical management services for commercial, military, regional jet, and general aviation aircraft. The Industrial Coatings segment offers coatings, adhesives and sealants, and metal pretreatments, as well as services and coatings applications for appliances, agricultural and construction equipment, consumer electronics, automotive parts and accessories, building products, kitchenware, and transportation vehicles and other finished products; and on-site coatings services. It also provides coatings for metal cans, closures, plastic and aluminum tubes for food, beverage and personal care, promotional, and specialty packaging; amorphous precipitated silica for tire, battery separator, and other end-uses; TESLIN substrates for labels, e-passports, drivers' licenses, breathable membranes, and loyalty and identification cards; and organic light emitting diode materials, displays and lighting lens materials, optical lenses, color-change products, and photochromic dyes. PPG Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1883 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "JPM", "question": "Will JPM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a financial services company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Consumer & Community Banking (CCB), Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB), Commercial Banking (CB), and Asset & Wealth Management (AWM). The CCB segment offers deposit, investment and lending products, cash management, and payments and services; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, auto loans, leases, and travel services to consumers and small businesses through bank branches, ATMs, and digital and telephone banking. The CIB segment provides investment banking products and services, including corporate strategy and structure advisory, and equity and debt market capital-raising services, as well as loan origination and syndication; payments; and cash and derivative instruments, risk management solutions, prime brokerage, and research. This segment also offers securities services, including custody, fund accounting and administration, and securities lending products for asset managers, insurance companies, and public and private investment funds. The CB segment provides financial solutions, including lending, payments, investment banking, and asset management to small and midsized companies, local governments, nonprofit clients, and large corporations, as well as investors, developers, and owners of multifamily, office, retail, industrial, and affordable housing properties. The AWM segment offers multi-asset investment management solutions in equities, fixed income, alternatives, and money market funds to institutional clients and retail investors; and retirement products and services, brokerage, custody, estate planning, lending, deposits, and investment management products to high net worth clients. JPMorgan Chase & Co. was founded in 1799 and is headquartered in New York, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "AMGN", "question": "Will AMGN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel to treat plaque psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Beh\u00e7et's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for men and women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout. It also markets other products, including Neulasta, MVASI, AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA, TEZSPIRE, Parsabiv, Aimovig, LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS, EPOGEN, KANJINTI, TAVNEOS, RAVICTI, UPLIZNA and PROCYSBI. The company serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors, as well as direct-to-consumer channels. The company has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca plc for the development and commercialization of TEZSPIRE; Novartis Pharma AG to develop and commercialize Aimovig; UCB for the development and commercialization of EVENITY; Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. for rocatinlimab development and commercialization; and BeiGene, Ltd. for oncology products expansion and development. Amgen Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "ADSK", "question": "Will ADSK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment technology solutions worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for land development, transportation, and environmental projects; Autodesk Build, provides a toolset for managing, sharing, and accessing project documents for streamlined workflows between the office, trailer, and jobsite; Revit, a software built for Building Information Modeling to help professionals design, build, and maintain higher-quality, more energy-efficient buildings; Autodesk BIM Collaborate Pro, cloud-based design collaboration and design management software; and BuildingConnected, a SaaS preconstruction solution. It also provides AutoCAD software, a customizable and extensible CAD application for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; Fusion, a 3D CAD, computer-aided manufacturing, and computer-aided engineering tool; Inventor, a software solution, that offers a set of tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; and Vault, a data management software, for managing data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration. In addition, the company offers Flow Production Tracking, cloud-based software for review and production tracking; Maya software, which provides 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions for film and video artists, game developers, and design visualization professionals; Media and Entertainment Collection, that provides end-to-end creative tools for entertainment creation; and 3ds Max software provides 3D modeling, animation, and rendering solutions. It sells its products and services to customers directly, as well as through a network of resellers and distributors. The company was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "NCLH", "question": "Will NCLH's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cruise company in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company operates through the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. It offers itineraries ranging from three days to a 180-days calling on various ports, including Scandinavia, Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, the Greek Isles, Alaska, Canada and New England, Hawaii, Asia, Tahiti and the South Pacific, Australia and New Zealand, Africa, India, South America, the Panama Canal, and the Caribbean. It distributes its products through retail/travel advisor and onboard cruise sales channels, as well as meetings, incentives, and charters. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. was founded in 1966 and is based in Miami, Florida.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "SYK", "question": "Will SYK's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Stryker Corporation operates as a medical technology company. The company operates through two segments, MedSurg and Neurotechnology, and Orthopaedics and Spine. The Orthopaedics and Spine segment provides implants for use in total joint replacements, such as hip, knee and shoulder, and trauma and extremities surgeries. This segment also offers spinal implant products comprising cervical and thoracolumbar systems that include fixation, minimally invasive and interbody systems used in spinal injury, complex spine and degenerative therapies. The MedSurg and Neurotechnology segment offers surgical equipment, and surgical navigation systems, endoscopic and communications systems, patient handling, emergency medical equipment and intensive care disposable products, reprocessed and remanufactured medical devices, clinical communication and workflow solutions, and other medical device products that are used in various medical specialties, as well as patient and caregiver safety technologies. This segment also provides neurosurgical, neurovascular and craniomaxillofacial implant products, which include products used for minimally invasive endovascular procedures; products for brain and open skull based surgical procedures; orthobiologic and biosurgery products, such as synthetic bone grafts and vertebral augmentation products; minimally invasive products for the treatment of acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke; and craniomaxillofacial implant products, including cranial, maxillofacial, and chest wall devices, as well as dural substitutes and sealants. The company sells its products to doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities through company-owned subsidiaries and branches, as well as third-party dealers and distributors in approximately 75 countries. Stryker Corporation was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Portage, Michigan.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "PGR", "question": "Will PGR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, and pick-up trucks used by small businesses, as well as non-fleet taxis, black-car services, and airport taxis; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks used by light contractors and heavy constructions; log trucks and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, garbage/debris removal, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers manufactured homes, personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; acts as an agent to homeowners, general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products; and reinsurance services. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as through mobile applications and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "VZ", "question": "Will VZ's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Verizon Communications Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of communications, technology, information, and entertainment products and services to consumers, businesses, and governmental entities worldwide. It operates in two segments, Verizon Consumer Group (Consumer) and Verizon Business Group (Business). The Consumer segment provides wireless services across the wireless networks in the United States under the Verizon and TracFone brands and through wholesale and other arrangements; and fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband through its wireless networks, as well as related equipment and devices, such as smartphones, tablets, smart watches, and other wireless-enabled connected devices. The segment also offers wireline services in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States, as well as Washington D.C. through its fiber-optic network, Verizon Fios product portfolio, and a copper-based network. The Business segment provides wireless and wireline communications services and products, including FWA broadband, data, video and conferencing, corporate networking, security and managed network, local and long-distance voice, and network access services to deliver various IoT services and products to businesses, government customers, and wireless and wireline carriers in the United States and internationally. The company was formerly known as Bell Atlantic Corporation and changed its name to Verizon Communications Inc. in June 2000. Verizon Communications Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in New York, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "DE", "question": "Will DE's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides large and medium tractors, combines, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, harvesting front-end equipment, pull-behind scrapers, and tillage and seeding equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, and soil preparation machinery for grain growers. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers utility tractors, and related loaders and attachments; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn equipment, commercial mowing equipment, golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications; other outdoor power products; and hay and forage equipment. This segment also resells products from other manufacturers. It serves dairy and livestock producers, crop producers, and turf and utility customers. The Construction and Forestry segment provides a range of backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, landscape and skid-steer loaders, milling machines, pavers, compactors, rollers, crushers, screens, asphalt plants, log skidders, log feller bunchers, log loaders and forwarders, log harvesters, and attachments; and roadbuilding equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties, as well as finances retail revolving charge accounts. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "LULU", "question": "Will LULU's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Lululemon Athletica Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories under the lululemon brand for women and men. It offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for healthy lifestyle, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. It also provides fitness-inspired accessories. The company sells its products through a chain of company-operated stores; outlets; interactive workout platform; yoga and fitness studios, university campus retailers, and other partners; license and supply arrangements; and temporary locations, as well as through mobile apps and lululemon.com e-commerce website. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Mainland China, Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Macau, Thailand, the Asia Pacific, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Lululemon Athletica Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "IBM", "question": "Will IBM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "International Business Machines Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated solutions and services worldwide. The company operates through Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing segments. The Software segment offers a hybrid cloud and AI platforms that allows clients to realize their digital and AI transformations across the applications, data, and environments in which they operate. The Consulting segment focuses on skills integration for strategy, experience, technology, and operations by domain and industry. The Infrastructure segment provides on-premises and cloud based server, and storage solutions, as well as life-cycle services for hybrid cloud infrastructure deployment. The Financing segment offers client and commercial financing, facilitates IBM clients' acquisition of hardware, software, and services. The company has a strategic partnership to various companies including hyperscalers, service providers, global system integrators, and software and hardware vendors that includes Adobe, Amazon Web services, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics and SAP, and others. The company was formerly known as Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. International Business Machines Corporation was incorporated in 1911 and is headquartered in Armonk, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "CB", "question": "Will CB's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Chubb Limited provides insurance and reinsurance products worldwide. The company's North America Commercial P&C Insurance segment offers commercial property, casualty, workers' compensation, package policies, risk management, financial lines, marine, construction, environmental, medical risk, cyber risk, surety, and casualty; and group accident and health insurance to large, middle market, and small commercial businesses. Its North America Personal P&C Insurance segment provides affluent and high net worth individuals and families with homeowners, automobile and collector cars, valuable articles, personal and excess liability, travel insurance, and recreational marine insurance and services. The company's North America Agricultural Insurance segment offers multiple peril crop and crop-hail insurance; and coverage for farm, ranch, and specialty property and casualty, and commercial agriculture products. Its Overseas General Insurance segment provides coverage for traditional commercial property and casualty; specialty categories, such as financial lines, marine, energy, aviation, political risk, and construction; and group accident and health, and traditional and specialty personal lines for corporations, middle markets, and small customers through retail brokers, agents, and other channels. The company's Global Reinsurance segment offers traditional and specialty reinsurance under the Chubb Tempest Re brand to property and casualty companies. Its Life Insurance segment provides protection and savings products comprising whole life, endowment plans, individual and life, group term life, health protection, personal accident, credit life, universal life, group employee benefits, and unit linked contracts. It markets its products primarily through insurance and reinsurance brokers. The company was formerly known as ACE Limited and changed its name to Chubb Limited in January 2016. Chubb Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "ADI", "question": "Will ADI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, tests, and markets integrated circuits (ICs), software, and subsystems products in the United States, rest of North and South America, Europe, Japan, China, and rest of Asia. The company provides data converter products, which translate real-world analog signals into digital data, as well as translates digital data into analog signals; power management and reference products for power conversion, driver monitoring, sequencing, and energy management applications in the automotive, communications, industrial, and consumer markets; and power ICs that include performance, integration, and software design simulation tools for accurate power supply designs. It also offers amplifiers to condition analog signals; and radio frequency and microwave ICs to support cellular infrastructure; and micro-electro-mechanical systems technology solutions, including accelerometers used to sense acceleration, gyroscopes for sense rotation, inertial measurement units to sense multiple degrees of freedom, and broadband switches for radio and instrument systems, as well as isolators. In addition, the company provides digital signal processing and system products for numeric calculations. It serves clients in the industrial, automotive, consumer, instrumentation, aerospace, defense and healthcare, and communications markets through a direct sales force, third-party distributors, and independent sales representatives, as well as online. Analog Devices, Inc. was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "OMC", "question": "Will OMC's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Omnicom Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers advertising, marketing, and corporate communications services. It provides a range of services in the areas of advertising and media, precision marketing, commerce and branding, experiential, execution and support, public relations, and healthcare. The company's services include advertising, branding, content marketing, corporate social responsibility consulting, crisis communications, custom publishing, data analytics, database management, digital/direct marketing and post-production, digital transformation consulting, entertainment marketing, experiential marketing, field marketing, sales support, financial/corporate business-to-business advertising, graphic arts/digital imaging, healthcare marketing and communications, and instore design services. Its services also comprise interactive marketing, investor relations, marketing research, media planning and buying, retail media planning and buying, merchandising and point of sale, mobile marketing, multi-cultural marketing, non-profit marketing, organizational communications, package design, product placement, promotional marketing, public affairs, public relations, retail marketing, retail media and e-commerce, search engine marketing, shopper marketing, social media marketing, and sports and event marketing services. It operates in the North and Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and the Asia Pacific. The company was incorporated in 1944 and is based in New York, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "HCA", "question": "Will HCA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates hospitals and related healthcare entities in the United States. It operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. The company also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities. In addition, it operates behavioral hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "ROST", "question": "Will ROST's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brand names in the United States. Its stores primarily offer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions. The company's Ross Dress for Less stores sell its products at department and specialty stores to middle income households; and dd's DISCOUNTS stores sell its products at department and discount stores for households with moderate income. Ross Stores, Inc. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "SNPS", "question": "Will SNPS's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Synopsys, Inc. provides electronic design automation software products used to design and test integrated circuits. It operates in three segments: Design Automation, Design IP, and Software Integrity. The company offers Digital and Custom IC Design solution that provides digital design implementation solutions; Verification solution that offers virtual prototyping, static and formal verification, simulation, emulation, field programmable gate array (FPGA)-based prototyping, and debug solutions; and FPGA design products that are programmed to perform specific functions. It also provides intellectual property (IP) solutions for USB, PCI Express, DDR, Ethernet, MIPI, HDMI, and Bluetooth low energy applications; logic libraries and embedded memories; processor cores, software, and application-specific instruction-set processor tools for embedded applications; security IP solutions; IP solutions for automotive market; and system-on-chip (SoC) infrastructure IP, datapath and building block IP, and verification IP products, as well as mathematical and floating-point components, and Arm AMBA interconnect fabric and peripherals. In addition, the company offers HAPS FPGA-based prototyping systems; virtual prototyping solutions; and Platform Architect solutions for SoC architecture analysis and optimization, as well as optical products, and mechatronic simulations. Further, it provides security and quality testing products, managed services, programs and professional services, and training that enable its customers to detect and remediate security vulnerabilities, and defects in the software development lifecycle, as well as manufacturing solutions. Additionally, the company provides intelligent orchestration solution, software risk manager, and black duck software composition analysis tools. It serves electronics, financial services, automotive, medicine, energy, and industrial areas. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "BIO", "question": "Will BIO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. manufactures and distributes life science research and clinical diagnostic products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through two segments, Life Science and Clinical Diagnostics. The company develops, manufactures, and markets instruments, systems, reagents, and consumables to separate, purify, characterize, and quantitate biological materials such as cells, proteins, and nucleic acids for proteomics, genomics, biopharmaceutical production, cellular biology, and food safety markets. It also designs, manufactures, markets, and supports test systems, informatics systems, test kits, and specialized quality controls for hospitals, diagnostic reference, transfusion, and physician office laboratories. The company offers its products through its direct sales force, as well as through distributors, agents, brokers, and resellers. Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Hercules, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "SRE", "question": "Will SRE's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Sempra operates as an energy infrastructure company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Sempra California, Sempra Texas Utilities, and Sempra Infrastructure. The Sempra California segment provides electric services; and natural gas services to San Diego County. As of December 31, 2023, it offered electric services to approximately 3.6 million population and natural gas services to approximately 3.3 million population that covers 4,100 square miles. This segment owns and operates a natural gas distribution, transmission, and storage system that supplies natural gas. As of December 31, 2023, it serves a population of 21 million covering an area of 24,000 square miles. The Sempra Texas Utilities segment engages in the regulated electricity transmission and distribution. As of December 31, 2023, its transmission system included 18,298 circuit miles of transmission lines; 1,257 transmission and distribution substations; interconnection to 173 third-party generation facilities totaling 54,277 MW; and distribution system included approximately 4.0 million points of delivery and consisted of 125,116 miles of overhead and underground lines. The Sempra Infrastructure segment develops, builds, operates, and invests in energy infrastructure to help enable the energy transition in North American markets and worldwide. The company was formerly known as Sempra Energy and changed its name to Sempra in May 2023. Sempra was incorporated in 1996 and is based in San Diego, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "CE", "question": "Will CE's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Celanese Corporation, a chemical and specialty materials company, manufactures and sells high performance engineered polymers in the United States and internationally. It operates through Engineered Materials and Acetyl Chain. The Engineered Materials segment develops, produces, and supplies specialty polymers for automotive and medical applications, as well as for use in industrial products and consumer electronics. The Acetyl Chain segment produces and supplies acetyl products, including acetic acid, vinyl acetate monomers, acetic anhydride, and acetate esters that are used as starting materials for colorants, paints, adhesives, coatings, and pharmaceuticals; and organic solvents and intermediates for pharmaceutical, agricultural, and chemical products. It also offers vinyl acetate-based emulsions for use in paints and coatings, adhesives, construction, glass fiber, textiles, and paper applications; and ethylene vinyl acetate resins and compounds, as well as low-density polyethylene for use in flexible packaging films, lamination film products, hot melt adhesives, automotive parts, and carpeting applications. In addition, it provides redispersible powders (RDP) for use in construction applications, including flooring, plasters, insulation, tiling, and waterproofing. Celanese Corporation was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "FI", "question": "Will FI's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Fiserv, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides payments and financial services technology services in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through Merchant Acceptance, Financial Technology, and Payments and Network segments. The Merchant Acceptance segment provides merchant acquiring and digital commerce services; mobile payment services; security and fraud protection products; Clover, a cloud based POS and integrated commerce operating system for small and mid-sized businesses and independent software vendors; and Carat, an integrated operating system for large businesses. This segment distributes through various channels, including direct sales teams, strategic partnerships with agent sales forces, independent software vendors, financial institutions, and other strategic partners in the form of joint venture alliances, revenue sharing alliances, and referral agreement. The Financial Technology segment offers customer deposit and loan accounts, as well as manages an institution's general ledger and central information files. This segment also provides digital banking, financial and risk management, professional services and consulting, check processing, and other products and services. The Payments and Network segment offers card transactions, such as debit, credit, and prepaid card processing and services; funds access, debit payments, cardless ATM access, and surcharge-free ATM network; security and fraud protection products; card production; print services; and various network services, as well as non-card digital payment software and services, including bill payment, account-to-account transfers, person-to-person payments, electronic billing, and security and fraud protection products. It serves merchants, banks, credit unions, other financial institutions, and corporate clients. Fiserv, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "NEM", "question": "Will NEM's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Newmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ecuador, Fiji, and Ghana. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "D", "question": "Will D's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Dominion Energy, Inc. produces and distributes energy in the United States. It operates through three operating segments: Dominion Energy Virginia, Dominion Energy South Carolina, and Contracted Energy. The Dominion Energy Virginia segment generates, transmits, and distributes regulated electricity to approximately 2.8 million residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers in Virginia and North Carolina. The Dominion Energy South Carolina segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 0.8 million customers in the central, southern, and southwestern portions of South Carolina; and distributes natural gas to approximately 0.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in South Carolina. The Contracted Energy segment is involved in the nonregulated long-term contracted renewable electric generation and renewable natural gas facility. As of December 31, 2023, the company's portfolio of assets included approximately 29.5 gigawatt of electric generating capacity; 10,600 miles of electric transmission lines; 79,300 miles of electric distribution lines; and 94,800 miles of gas distribution mains and related service facilities. The company was formerly known as Dominion Resources, Inc. Dominion Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "NOW", "question": "Will NOW's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "ServiceNow, Inc. provides end to-end intelligent workflow automation platform solutions for digital businesses in the North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates the Now platform for end-to-end digital transformation, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotic process automation, process mining, performance analytics, and collaboration and development tools. It also provides asset management, cloud observability, integrated risk management; information technology (IT) service management applications; IT service management product suite for enterprise's employees, customers, and partners; strategic portfolio management product suite; IT operations management product that connects a customer's physical and cloud-based IT infrastructure; IT asset management; and security operations that connects with internal and third party. In addition, the company offers integrated risk management product to manage risk and resilience; environmental, social and governance management product; human resources, legal, and workplace service delivery products; customer service management product; and field service management applications. Further, the company provides app engine product; automation engine; platform privacy and security product; and source-to-pay operations. It serves to government, financial services, healthcare, telecommunications, manufacturing, IT services, technology, oil and gas, education, and consumer products through service providers and resale partners. The company was formerly known as Service-now.com and changed its name to ServiceNow, Inc. in May 2012. ServiceNow, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "MCO", "question": "Will MCO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Moody's Corporation operates as an integrated risk assessment firm worldwide. It operates in two segments, Moody's Analytics and Moody's Investors Services. The Moody's Analytics segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets. It also offers credit research, credit models and analytics, economics data and models, and structured finance solutions; data sets on companies and securities; and SaaS solutions supporting banking, insurance, and know your customer workflows. The Moody's Investors Service segment publishes credit ratings and provides assessment services on various debt obligations, programs and facilities, and entities that issue such obligations, such as various corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000. Moody's Corporation was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in New York, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "GPN", "question": "Will GPN's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Global Payments Inc. provides payment technology and software solutions for card, check, and digital-based payments in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through two segments, Merchant Solutions and Issuer Solutions. The Merchant Solutions segment offers authorization, settlement and funding, customer support, chargeback resolution, terminal rental, sales and deployment, payment security, and consolidated billing and reporting services. This segment also provides an array of enterprise software solutions that streamline business operations of its customers in various vertical markets; and value-added solutions and services, such as point-of-sale software, analytics and customer engagement, payroll and reporting, and human capital management. The Issuer Solutions segment offers solutions that enable financial institutions and retailers to manage their card portfolios through a platform; and commercial payments, account payables, and electronic payment alternatives solutions for businesses and governments. It markets its products and services through direct sales force, trade associations, agent and enterprise software providers, referral arrangements with value-added resellers, and independent sales organizations. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "CLX", "question": "Will CLX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "The Clorox Company engages in the manufacture and marketing of consumer and professional products worldwide. It operates through four segments: Health and Wellness, Household, Lifestyle, and International. The Health and Wellness segment offers home care cleaning and disinfecting products, bleach, clog removers, and laundry additives, primarily under the Clorox, Clorox2, Pine-Sol, Scentiva, Tilex, Liquid-Plumr, Poett, and Formula 409 brands; professional cleaning and disinfecting products under the CloroxPro and Clorox Healthcare brands; professional food service products under the Hidden Valley brand in the United States. The Household segment provides cat litter products under the Fresh Step and Scoop Away brands; bags and wraps under the Glad brand; and grilling products under the Kingsford brand in the United States. The Lifestyle segment offers dressings, dips, seasonings, and sauces primarily under the Hidden Valley brand; water-filtration products under the Brita brand; and natural personal care products under the Burt's Bees brand in the United States. The International segment provides laundry additives, home care products, bags and wraps, cat litter products, water-filtration systems, professional cleaning and disinfecting products, natural personal care products, food products, grilling products, and digestive health products internationally primarily under the Clorox, Glad, Poett, Brita, Burt's Bees, Pine-Sol, Ever Clean, Clorinda, Chux, and Fresh Step brands. The company also offers vitamins, minerals, and supplement products under the Natural Vitality, RenewLife, NeoCell, and Rainbow Light brands. It sells its products primarily through mass retailers; grocery outlets; warehouse clubs; dollar stores; home hardware centers; drug, pet, and military stores; third-party and owned e-commerce channels; and distributors, as well as a direct sales force. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "CMCSA", "question": "Will CMCSA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Comcast Corporation operates as a media and technology company worldwide. It operates through Residential Connectivity & Platforms, Business Services Connectivity, Media, Studios, and Theme Parks segments. The Residential Connectivity & Platforms segment provides residential broadband and wireless connectivity services, residential and business video services, sky-branded entertainment television networks, and advertising. The Business Services Connectivity segment offers connectivity services for small business locations, which include broadband, wireline voice, and wireless services, as well as solutions for medium-sized customers and larger enterprises; and small business connectivity services in the United Kingdom. The Media segment operates NBCUniversal's television and streaming business, including national and regional cable networks; the NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks and owned local broadcast television stations; and Peacock, a direct-to-consumer streaming services. It also operates international television networks comprising the Sky Sports networks, as well as other digital properties. The Studios segment operates NBCUniversal and Sky film and television studio production and distribution operations. The Theme Parks segment operates Universal theme parks in Orlando, Florida; Hollywood, California; Osaka, Japan; and Beijing, China. The company also offers a consolidated streaming platforms under the Philadelphia Flyers and the Wells Fargo Center arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Xumo. Comcast Corporation was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "ENPH", "question": "Will ENPH's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers semiconductor-based microinverter, which converts energy at the individual solar module level and combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. It also provides microinverter units and related accessories, an IQ gateway; IQ batteries; the cloud-based Enlighten monitoring service; storage solutions; and electric vehicle charging solutions, as well as design, proposal, permitting, and lead generation services. The company sells its solutions to solar distributors; and directly to large installers, original equipment manufacturers, strategic partners, and homeowners, as well as through its legacy product upgrade program or online store. Enphase Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "BRO", "question": "Will BRO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Brown & Brown, Inc. markets and sells insurance products and services in the United States, Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail, National Programs, Wholesale Brokerage, and Services. The Retail segment provides property and casualty, employee benefits insurance products, personal insurance products, specialties insurance products, risk management strategies, loss control survey and analysis, consultancy, and claims processing services. It serves commercial, public and quasi-public entities, professional, and individual customers. The National Programs segment offers professional liability and related package insurance products for dentistry, legal, eyecare, insurance, financial, physicians, real estate title professionals, as well as supplementary insurance products related to weddings, events, medical facilities, and cyber liabilities. This segment also provides public entity-related and specialty programs through a network of independent agents; and program management services for insurance carrier partners. The Wholesale Brokerage segment markets and sells excess and surplus commercial and personal lines insurance through independent agents and brokers. The Services segment offers third-party claims administration and medical utilization management services in the workers' compensation and all-lines liability arenas, Medicare Set-aside, Social Security disability, Medicare benefits advocacy, and claims adjusting services. Brown & Brown, Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "CTLT", "question": "Will CTLT's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Catalent, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures solutions for drugs, protein-based biologics, cell and gene therapies, and consumer health products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Biologics, and Pharma and Consumer Health. The Biologics segment provides formulation, development, and manufacturing for biologic proteins, cell gene, and other nucleic acid therapies; pDNA, iPSCs, oncolytic viruses, and vaccines; formulation, development, and manufacturing for parenteral dose forms, including vials, prefilled syringes, and cartridges; and analytical development and testing services for large molecules. The Pharma and Consumer Health segment offers formulation, development, and manufacturing services for soft capsules for use in a range of customer products, such as prescription drugs, over-the-counter medications, dietary supplements, unit-dose cosmetics, and animal health medicinal preparations; and oral, nasal, inhaled, and topical dose forms. This segment also provides clinical supply services through manufacturing, packaging, storage, distribution, and inventory management for small-molecule drugs, protein-based biologics, and cell and gene therapies in clinical trials; and pre-clinical screening, formulation, analytical development, and current good manufacturing practices manufacturing at clinical and commercial scale for softgel capsule, Zydis fast-dissolve tablets, oral solid-dose formats, dry powder inhalers, and nasal delivery devices. The company also offers FlexDirect direct-to-patient and FastChain demand-led clinical supply solutions; fill and finish operations for injectable products; and integrated development and product supply chain solutions. It serves biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and consumer health companies; and companies in other healthcare market segments, such as animal health and medical devices, as well as in cosmetics industries. The company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Somerset, New Jersey.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "CPB", "question": "Will CPB's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "The Campbell's Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Meals & Beverages and Snacks segments. The Meals & Beverages segment engages in the retail and foodservice businesses in the United States and Canada. This segment provides Campbell's condensed and ready-to-serve soups; Swanson broth and stocks; Pacific Foods broth, soups, and non-dairy beverages; Prego pasta sauces; Pace Mexican sauces; Campbell's gravies, pasta, beans, and dinner sauces; Swanson canned poultry; V8 juices and beverages; Campbell's tomato juice; Rao's pasta sauces, dry pasta, frozen entr\u00e9es, frozen pizza and soups; Michael Angelo's frozen entr\u00e9es and pasta sauces; and noosa yogurts, as well as snacking products in foodservice in Canada. The Snacks segment retails Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, fresh bakery, and frozen products, that includes Goldfish crackers, Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July snacks, Snack Factory pretzel crisps, and other snacking products. This segment is also involved in the retail business in Latin America. It sells its products through retail food chains, mass discounters and merchandisers, club stores, convenience stores, drug stores, and dollar stores, as well as e-commerce and other retail, commercial, and non-commercial establishments, and independent contractor distributors. The company was formerly known as Campbell Soup Company and changed its name to The Campbell's Company in November 2024. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Camden, New Jersey.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "TPL", "question": "Will TPL's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The company owns a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 4,000 additional net royalty acres, total of approximately 195,000 NRA located in the western part of Texas. The Land and Resource Management segment manages surface acres of land, and oil and gas royalty interest in West Texas. This segment also engages in easements, such as transporting oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility, and subsurface wellbore easements. In addition, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche, sand, and other material, as well as sells land. The Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure development, and disposal solutions to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds produced water royalties. Texas Pacific Land Corporation was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "BR", "question": "Will BR's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. provides investor communications and technology-driven solutions for the financial services industry. The company's Investor Communication Solutions segment handles the proxy materials distribution and voting processes for bank, broker-dealer, corporate issuer, and fund clients, as well as distributes regulatory reports, prospectuses, class action, and corporate action/reorganization event information, as well as tax reporting solutions. The segment also offers ProxyEdge, an electronic proxy delivery and voting solution; data-driven solutions and an end-to-end platform for content management, composition, and omni-channel distribution of regulatory, marketing, and transactional information, as well as mutual fund trade processing services; solutions for public corporations and mutual funds; data and analytics solutions; SEC filing and capital markets transaction services; registrar, stock transfer, and record-keeping services; and omni-channel customer communications solutions, as well as operates Broadridge Communications Cloud platform that creates, delivers, and manages communications and customer engagement activities. Its Global Technology and Operations segment provides solutions that automate the front-to-back transaction lifecycle of equity, mutual fund, fixed income, foreign exchange and exchange-traded derivatives, order capture and execution, trade confirmation, margin, cash management, clearing and settlement, reference data management, reconciliations, securities financing and collateral management, asset servicing, compliance and regulatory reporting, portfolio accounting, and custody-related services. This segment also offers business process outsourcing services; technology solutions, such portfolio management, compliance, fee billing, and operational support solutions; and capital market and wealth and investment management solutions. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Lake Success, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "DTE", "question": "Will DTE's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "DTE Energy Company engages in the utility operations. The company's Electric segment generates, purchases, distributes, and sells electricity to various residential, commercial, and industrial customers in southeastern Michigan. It generates electricity through coal-fired plants, hydroelectric pumped storage, and nuclear plants, as well as wind and solar assets. This segment owns and operates distribution substations and line transformers. The company's Gas segment purchases, stores, transports, distributes, and sells natural gas to various residential, commercial, and industrial customers throughout Michigan; and sells storage and transportation capacity. Its DTE Vantage segment offers metallurgical and petroleum coke to steel and other industries; and power generation, steam production, chilled water production, and wastewater treatment services, as well as air supplies compressed air to industrial customers. Its Energy Trading segment engages in power, natural gas, and environmental marketing and trading; structured transactions; and the optimization of contracted natural gas pipeline transportation and storage positions. The company was founded in 1849 and is based in Detroit, Michigan.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "NWS", "question": "Will NWS's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "News Corporation, a media and information services company, creates and distributes authoritative and engaging content, and other products and services for consumers and businesses worldwide. It operates through six segments: Digital Real Estate Services, Subscription Video Services, Dow Jones, Book Publishing, News Media, and Other. The company distributes content and data products, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, MarketWatch, Investor's Business Daily, Factiva, Dow Jones Risk & Compliance, Dow Jones Newswires, and Dow Jones Energy through various media channels, such as newspapers, newswires, websites, mobile apps, newsletters, magazines, proprietary databases, live journalism, video, and podcasts. It also owns and operates Monday to Friday, Saturday and Sunday, weekly, and bi-weekly newspapers comprising The Australian, The Weekend Australian, The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph, Herald Sun, Sunday Herald Sun, The Courier Mail, The Sunday Mail, The Advertiser, Sunday Mail, The Sun, The Sun on Sunday, The Times, The Sunday Times, and New York Post, as well as digital mastheads and other websites. In addition, the company publishes general fiction, nonfiction, children's, and religious books; provides sports, entertainment, and news services to pay-TV and streaming subscribers, and other commercial licensees through satellite and internet distribution; and broadcasts rights to live sporting events. Further, it offers property and property-related advertising and services on its websites and mobile applications; digital real estate services; and financial services. News Corporation was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "AMP", "question": "Will AMP's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Ameriprise Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services to individual and institutional clients in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Advice & Wealth Management, Asset Management, Retirement & Protection Solutions, and Corporate & Other. The Advice & Wealth Management segment provides financial planning and advice; brokerage products and services for retail and institutional clients; discretionary and non-discretionary investment advisory accounts; mutual funds; insurance and annuities products; cash management and banking products; and face-amount certificates. The Asset Management segment offers investment management, advice, and products to retail, high net worth, and institutional clients through third-party financial institutions, advisor networks, direct retail, and its institutional sales force under the Columbia Threadneedle Investments brand name. This segment products include U.S. mutual funds and their non-U.S. equivalents, exchange-traded funds, variable product funds underlying insurance, and annuity separate accounts; and institutional asset management products, such as traditional asset classes, separately managed accounts, individually managed accounts, collateralized loan obligations, hedge funds, collective funds, and property and infrastructure funds. The Retirement & Protection Solutions segment provides variable annuity products, as well as life and disability income insurance products to retail clients. The company was formerly known as American Express Financial Corporation and changed its name to Ameriprise Financial, Inc. in September 2005. Ameriprise Financial, Inc. was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "TER", "question": "Will TER's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Teradyne, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells automated test systems and robotics products worldwide. It operates through four segments; Semiconductor Test, System Test, Robotics, and Wireless Test. The Semiconductor Test segment offers products and services for wafer level and device package testing of semiconductor devices in automotive, industrial, communications, consumer, smartphones, cloud, computer and electronic game, and other applications. This segment also provides FLEX test platform systems; J750 test system to address the volume semiconductor devices, including microcontrollers; Magnum platform that tests memory devices, such as flash memory and DRAM; and ETS platform for semiconductor manufacturers, and assembly and test subcontractors in the analog/mixed signal markets. It serves integrated device manufacturers that integrate the fabrication of silicon wafers into their business; fabless companies that outsource the manufacturing of silicon wafers; foundries; and semiconductor assembly and test providers. The System Test segment offers defense/aerospace test instrumentation and systems; storage and system level test systems; and circuit-board test and inspection systems. The Wireless Test segment provides wireless test solutions for silicon validation, wireless module manufacturing, and wireless end device manufacturing under the LitePoint brand. This segment also offers IQxel-MX and IQxel-MW7G series products for edge measurement performance in the manufacturing of connectivity products; IQxstream-5G and IQgig-5G family products to support 4G and 5G technologies; and IQgig-UWB+ for certification and manufacturing test support for ultra wideband products. The Robotics segment provides collaborative robotic arms, autonomous mobile robots, and advanced robotic control software for manufacturing, logistics, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in North Reading, Massachusetts.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}
{"id": "SBUX", "question": "Will SBUX's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "L", "question": "Will L's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Loews Corporation provides commercial property and casualty insurance in the United States and internationally. The company offers specialty insurance products, such as management and professional liability, and other coverage products; surety and fidelity bonds; property insurance products that include standard and excess property, marine and boiler, and machinery coverages; and casualty insurance products, such as workers' compensation, general and product liability, and commercial auto, surplus, and umbrella coverages. It also provides loss-sensitive insurance programs; and warranty, risk management, information, and claims administration services. The company markets its insurance products and services through independent agents, brokers, and managing general underwriters. In addition, the company is involved in the transportation and storage of natural gas and natural gas liquids, and hydrocarbons through natural gas pipelines covering approximately 13,455 miles of interconnected pipelines; 855 miles of NGL pipelines in Louisiana and Texas; 14 underground storage fields with an aggregate gas capacity of approximately 199.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas; and eleven salt dome caverns and related brine infrastructure for providing brine supply services. Further, the company operates a chain of 25 hotels; and develops, manufactures, and markets a range of extrusion blow-molded and injection molded plastic containers for customers in the pharmaceutical, dairy, household chemicals, food/nutraceuticals, industrial/specialty chemicals, and water and beverage/juice industries, as well as manufactures commodity and differentiated plastic resins from recycled plastic materials. Loews Corporation was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in New York, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "TTWO", "question": "Will TTWO's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. develops, publishes, and markets interactive entertainment solutions for consumers worldwide. It develops and publishes action/adventure products under the Grand Theft Auto, LA Noire, Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Red Dead Redemption names, as well as other franchises. The company also publishes various entertainment properties across various platforms and a range of genres, such as shooter, action, role-playing, strategy, sports, and family/casual entertainment under the BioShock, Mafia, Sid Meier's Civilization, XCOM series, Borderlands, and Tiny Tina's Wonderland names. In addition, it publishes sports simulation titles comprising NBA 2K series, a basketball video game; the WWE 2K professional wrestling series; mobile titles, including WWE SuperCard; and PGA TOUR 2K. Further, the company offers Kerbal Space Program and OlliOlli World; free-to-play mobile games, such as CSR Racing, Dragon City, Empires & Puzzles, FarmVille, Golf Rival, Harry Potter: Puzzles & Spells, Match Factory!, Merge Dragons!, Merge Magic!, Monster Legends, Toon Blast, Top Eleven, Top Troops, Toy Blast, Two Dots, Words With Friends, and Zynga Poker; and hyper-casual mobile titles, including Fill the Fridge!, Parking Jam 3D, Power Slap, Pull the Pin, Twisted Tangle, and Tangled Snakes. Its products are designed for console gaming systems; personal computers; and mobiles comprising smartphones and tablets. The company provides its products through physical retail, digital download, online platforms, and cloud streaming services. Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is based in New York, New York.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "VST", "question": "Will VST's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. In addition, the company is involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 41,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 0}
{"id": "TSLA", "question": "Will TSLA's market close price on {resolution_date} be higher than its market close price on {forecast_due_date}?\n\nStock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "background": "Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, body shop and parts, supercharging, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.", "source": "yfinance", "source_intro": "Yahoo Finance provides financial data on stocks, bonds, and currencies and also offers news, commentary and tools for personal financial management. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.", "answer": 1}