Question: modernizing nuclear triad

1---Modernization hardens infrastructure against cyberattacks---elimination risks accidents and vulnerabilities

Klotz 22 [Lt. Frank G. Klotz, M.Phil. in international relations and a D.Phil. in politics, adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation; and Alexandra T. Evans, B.A. and a Ph.D. in history, associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, “Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,” RAND Corporation, January 2022, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA1400/PEA1434-1/RAND_PEA1434-1.pdf.] [language modified]

replacing aging Minuteman system will contribute safeguards that decrease likelihood of miscalc from computer failure or misidentification GBSD includes improvements in NC3 to strengthen cyber resiliency results will harden infrastructure against malicious attacks to pace cyber threat GBSD is necessary Absent modernization degradation of infrastructure could increase risk of technical failures or create opportunities to exploit


Question: GBSD cyber resiliency

1---Modernization hardens infrastructure against cyberattacks---elimination risks accidents and vulnerabilities

Klotz 22 [Lt. Frank G. Klotz, M.Phil. in international relations and a D.Phil. in politics, adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation; and Alexandra T. Evans, B.A. and a Ph.D. in history, associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, “Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,” RAND Corporation, January 2022, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA1400/PEA1434-1/RAND_PEA1434-1.pdf.] [language modified]

replacing aging Minuteman system will contribute safeguards that decrease likelihood of miscalc from computer failure or misidentification GBSD includes improvements in NC3 to strengthen cyber resiliency results will harden infrastructure against malicious attacks to pace cyber threat GBSD is necessary Absent modernization degradation of infrastructure could increase risk of technical failures or create opportunities to exploit


Question: GBSD modernization prevents cyberattack

1---Modernization hardens infrastructure against cyberattacks---elimination risks accidents and vulnerabilities

Klotz 22 [Lt. Frank G. Klotz, M.Phil. in international relations and a D.Phil. in politics, adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation; and Alexandra T. Evans, B.A. and a Ph.D. in history, associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, “Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,” RAND Corporation, January 2022, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA1400/PEA1434-1/RAND_PEA1434-1.pdf.] [language modified]

replacing aging Minuteman system will contribute safeguards that decrease likelihood of miscalc from computer failure or misidentification GBSD includes improvements in NC3 to strengthen cyber resiliency results will harden infrastructure against malicious attacks to pace cyber threat GBSD is necessary Absent modernization degradation of infrastructure could increase risk of technical failures or create opportunities to exploit


Question: modernization reduces risks

1---Modernization hardens infrastructure against cyberattacks---elimination risks accidents and vulnerabilities

Klotz 22 [Lt. Frank G. Klotz, M.Phil. in international relations and a D.Phil. in politics, adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation; and Alexandra T. Evans, B.A. and a Ph.D. in history, associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, “Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,” RAND Corporation, January 2022, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA1400/PEA1434-1/RAND_PEA1434-1.pdf.] [language modified]

replacing aging Minuteman system will contribute safeguards that decrease likelihood of miscalc from computer failure or misidentification GBSD includes improvements in NC3 to strengthen cyber resiliency results will harden infrastructure against malicious attacks to pace cyber threat GBSD is necessary Absent modernization degradation of infrastructure could increase risk of technical failures or create opportunities to exploit


Question: infrastructure against malicious attacks

1---Modernization hardens infrastructure against cyberattacks---elimination risks accidents and vulnerabilities

Klotz 22 [Lt. Frank G. Klotz, M.Phil. in international relations and a D.Phil. in politics, adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation; and Alexandra T. Evans, B.A. and a Ph.D. in history, associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, “Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,” RAND Corporation, January 2022, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA1400/PEA1434-1/RAND_PEA1434-1.pdf.] [language modified]

replacing aging Minuteman system will contribute safeguards that decrease likelihood of miscalc from computer failure or misidentification GBSD includes improvements in NC3 to strengthen cyber resiliency results will harden infrastructure against malicious attacks to pace cyber threat GBSD is necessary Absent modernization degradation of infrastructure could increase risk of technical failures or create opportunities to exploit


Question: degradation increases risk of failures

1---Modernization hardens infrastructure against cyberattacks---elimination risks accidents and vulnerabilities

Klotz 22 [Lt. Frank G. Klotz, M.Phil. in international relations and a D.Phil. in politics, adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation; and Alexandra T. Evans, B.A. and a Ph.D. in history, associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, “Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,” RAND Corporation, January 2022, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA1400/PEA1434-1/RAND_PEA1434-1.pdf.] [language modified]

replacing aging Minuteman system will contribute safeguards that decrease likelihood of miscalc from computer failure or misidentification GBSD includes improvements in NC3 to strengthen cyber resiliency results will harden infrastructure against malicious attacks to pace cyber threat GBSD is necessary Absent modernization degradation of infrastructure could increase risk of technical failures or create opportunities to exploit


Question: Decarbonization destabilizes oil states war billions

The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.

Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL

transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer  The expansion of  production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to  determination  a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues  provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on  oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran  would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic  and  disastrous  for  the world .


Question: Spatz decarbonization destabilizes

The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.

Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL

transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer  The expansion of  production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to  determination  a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues  provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on  oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran  would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic  and  disastrous  for  the world .


Question: Benjamin Spatz 21

The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.

Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL

transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer  The expansion of  production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to  determination  a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues  provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on  oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran  would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic  and  disastrous  for  the world .


Question: fragile states depend on oil

The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.

Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL

transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer  The expansion of  production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to  determination  a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues  provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on  oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran  would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic  and  disastrous  for  the world .


Question: traumatic decarbonization creates violence

The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.

Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL

transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer  The expansion of  production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to  determination  a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues  provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on  oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran  would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic  and  disastrous  for  the world .


Question: Saudi Aramco production revenue

The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.

Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL

transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer  The expansion of  production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to  determination  a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues  provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on  oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran  would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic  and  disastrous  for  the world .


Question: oil buys stability

The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.

Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL

transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer  The expansion of  production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to  determination  a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues  provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on  oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran  would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic  and  disastrous  for  the world .


Question: decarbonization war billions

The aff’s sudden decarbonization destabilizes oil producing countries, which cause wars that kill billions.

Benjamin Spatz 21 doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace; with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Aditya Sarkar, Ph.D. candidate at the Fletcher School, at Tufts University; and Tegan Blaine, doctorate in oceanography and climate from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace. "Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?," Jun 23 2021 https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations NL

transition to renewable could destabilize fragile states that depend on oil exports unplanned “traumatic decarbonization” Oil Buys Stability leaders pursue political survival by cutting deals among violent factions involve the cash from oil greening creates violence on a global scale generate risks in dozens whose population will be in the billions. institutions are weak corruption , cronyism or oligarchies oil is controlled by the elite central to deals with implications for stability. high oil prices accompany stronger peacemaking processes When oil slumped in the 2010s, peace became thinner transition to green economy will push elites to seek new revenues the scrambles will create risks The Company intends to maintain its position as the world’s leading producer  The expansion of  production outlined in Aramco’s prospectus amounts to  determination  a revenue stream larger than any other company in the world: $244 billion Saudi Arabia will not voluntarily phase out oil while demand still exists The $244 billion in revenues  provided 63% of government revenues contributed 43% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP regime survival and external security remain reliant on  oil rents Aramco’s extraordinary rents persuade the public to support al-Saud Protecting the business is a strategic and economic imperative collapse of the Saudi would have grave implications creates vacuum for radical jihadist groups pushing against the Saudi border civil war, instability, and sectarian tension would be fertile ground for groups to grow and expand control perpetuate regional instability Washington has expressed concerns about escalating in Saudi Arabia Instability would encourage Egypt , Jordan , Iran , Pakistan , U.S to react face pressure to intervene militarily geopolitical tsunami would have enormous consequences Iran  would attempt to capitalize on a regional power vacuum no clear Sunni successor state Egypt’s economy is weak and Jordan is surrounded by instability Saudi Arabia would send international markets into free fall severe global economic crisis catastrophic  and  disastrous  for  the world .


Question: China renewable lead

China renewable lead spills over.

Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.

if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security


Question: Ariel Cohen COP29

China renewable lead spills over.

Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.

if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security


Question: China fills power vacuum

China renewable lead spills over.

Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.

if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security


Question: US energy leadership

China renewable lead spills over.

Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.

if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security


Question: China renewable transition

China renewable lead spills over.

Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.

if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security


Question: US promote renewable transition

China renewable lead spills over.

Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.

if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security


Question: US jobs energy security

China renewable lead spills over.

Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.

if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security


Question: China economic and technological objectives

China renewable lead spills over.

Ariel Cohen '24. Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis. 11-11-2024. COP29: Asserting American Energy Leadership Amid Change. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/11/11/cop29-asserting-american-energy-leadership-amid-change/. Forbes. Accessed 11-15-2024.

if U.S. abandons role China happily fill that power vacuum to bolster economic and technological objectives and prestige U S is uniquely positioned to promote a renewable transition that is effective and profitable creating American jobs while addressing the realities of energy security


Question: No Arctic war

No Arctic war.

Valberg ‘24 [Anna; January 24th; MA in Political Science, University of Oslo. Head of communications at Fridtjof Nansen Institute. “War in the Arctic? Researchers debunk three myths about the High North.” https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-conflict/war-in-the-arctic-researchers-debunk-three-myths-about-the-high-north/2314629]

there are major misconceptions about the Arctic “ The reality is calmer everything can go wrong But things usually dont  . There's a willingness to cooperate researchers conflict in the Arctic is unlikely. Myth 1 war in the Arctic conditions in the Arctic more stable and than many assume Conflict is not easily triggered the Arctic is less likely to witness armed conflict than other global locations . there are no disputes  over Arctic borders borders are settled only one boundary remains unresolve between the USA and Canada


Question: Valberg 24

No Arctic war.

Valberg ‘24 [Anna; January 24th; MA in Political Science, University of Oslo. Head of communications at Fridtjof Nansen Institute. “War in the Arctic? Researchers debunk three myths about the High North.” https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-conflict/war-in-the-arctic-researchers-debunk-three-myths-about-the-high-north/2314629]

there are major misconceptions about the Arctic “ The reality is calmer everything can go wrong But things usually dont  . There's a willingness to cooperate researchers conflict in the Arctic is unlikely. Myth 1 war in the Arctic conditions in the Arctic more stable and than many assume Conflict is not easily triggered the Arctic is less likely to witness armed conflict than other global locations . there are no disputes  over Arctic borders borders are settled only one boundary remains unresolve between the USA and Canada


Question: War in the Arctic unlikely

No Arctic war.

Valberg ‘24 [Anna; January 24th; MA in Political Science, University of Oslo. Head of communications at Fridtjof Nansen Institute. “War in the Arctic? Researchers debunk three myths about the High North.” https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-conflict/war-in-the-arctic-researchers-debunk-three-myths-about-the-high-north/2314629]

there are major misconceptions about the Arctic “ The reality is calmer everything can go wrong But things usually dont  . There's a willingness to cooperate researchers conflict in the Arctic is unlikely. Myth 1 war in the Arctic conditions in the Arctic more stable and than many assume Conflict is not easily triggered the Arctic is less likely to witness armed conflict than other global locations . there are no disputes  over Arctic borders borders are settled only one boundary remains unresolve between the USA and Canada


Question: Arctic conflict unlikely

No Arctic war.

Valberg ‘24 [Anna; January 24th; MA in Political Science, University of Oslo. Head of communications at Fridtjof Nansen Institute. “War in the Arctic? Researchers debunk three myths about the High North.” https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-conflict/war-in-the-arctic-researchers-debunk-three-myths-about-the-high-north/2314629]

there are major misconceptions about the Arctic “ The reality is calmer everything can go wrong But things usually dont  . There's a willingness to cooperate researchers conflict in the Arctic is unlikely. Myth 1 war in the Arctic conditions in the Arctic more stable and than many assume Conflict is not easily triggered the Arctic is less likely to witness armed conflict than other global locations . there are no disputes  over Arctic borders borders are settled only one boundary remains unresolve between the USA and Canada


Question: willingness to cooperate arctic

No Arctic war.

Valberg ‘24 [Anna; January 24th; MA in Political Science, University of Oslo. Head of communications at Fridtjof Nansen Institute. “War in the Arctic? Researchers debunk three myths about the High North.” https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-conflict/war-in-the-arctic-researchers-debunk-three-myths-about-the-high-north/2314629]

there are major misconceptions about the Arctic “ The reality is calmer everything can go wrong But things usually dont  . There's a willingness to cooperate researchers conflict in the Arctic is unlikely. Myth 1 war in the Arctic conditions in the Arctic more stable and than many assume Conflict is not easily triggered the Arctic is less likely to witness armed conflict than other global locations . there are no disputes  over Arctic borders borders are settled only one boundary remains unresolve between the USA and Canada


Question: Arctic borders settled

No Arctic war.

Valberg ‘24 [Anna; January 24th; MA in Political Science, University of Oslo. Head of communications at Fridtjof Nansen Institute. “War in the Arctic? Researchers debunk three myths about the High North.” https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-conflict/war-in-the-arctic-researchers-debunk-three-myths-about-the-high-north/2314629]

there are major misconceptions about the Arctic “ The reality is calmer everything can go wrong But things usually dont  . There's a willingness to cooperate researchers conflict in the Arctic is unlikely. Myth 1 war in the Arctic conditions in the Arctic more stable and than many assume Conflict is not easily triggered the Arctic is less likely to witness armed conflict than other global locations . there are no disputes  over Arctic borders borders are settled only one boundary remains unresolve between the USA and Canada


Question: Arctic more stable than assumed

No Arctic war.

Valberg ‘24 [Anna; January 24th; MA in Political Science, University of Oslo. Head of communications at Fridtjof Nansen Institute. “War in the Arctic? Researchers debunk three myths about the High North.” https://partner.sciencenorway.no/arctic-climate-conflict/war-in-the-arctic-researchers-debunk-three-myths-about-the-high-north/2314629]

there are major misconceptions about the Arctic “ The reality is calmer everything can go wrong But things usually dont  . There's a willingness to cooperate researchers conflict in the Arctic is unlikely. Myth 1 war in the Arctic conditions in the Arctic more stable and than many assume Conflict is not easily triggered the Arctic is less likely to witness armed conflict than other global locations . there are no disputes  over Arctic borders borders are settled only one boundary remains unresolve between the USA and Canada


Question: Integration is a necessity

Integration’s a necessity.

Kaur ’24 [Silky; March 4; Ph.D. from Jawaharlal University in Diplomacy and Disarmament, Associate Fellow at the Center for Air Power Studies; The Equation, “Artificial Intelligence and the Evolving Landscape of Nuclear Strategy,” https://blog.ucsusa.org/science-blogger/artificial-intelligence-and-the-evolving-landscape-of-nuclear-strategy/#:~:text=Effect%20of%20AI%20on%20nuclear%20deterrence&text=Some%20experts%20speculate%20that%20integrating,facilitating%20rapid%20decision%2Dmaking%20processes]

AI enhance deterrence by early warning c and c and decision-making AI could analyz data to detect threats quickly integration is necessity for detection and ensuring effective response


Question: Kaur 24

Integration’s a necessity.

Kaur ’24 [Silky; March 4; Ph.D. from Jawaharlal University in Diplomacy and Disarmament, Associate Fellow at the Center for Air Power Studies; The Equation, “Artificial Intelligence and the Evolving Landscape of Nuclear Strategy,” https://blog.ucsusa.org/science-blogger/artificial-intelligence-and-the-evolving-landscape-of-nuclear-strategy/#:~:text=Effect%20of%20AI%20on%20nuclear%20deterrence&text=Some%20experts%20speculate%20that%20integrating,facilitating%20rapid%20decision%2Dmaking%20processes]

AI enhance deterrence by early warning c and c and decision-making AI could analyz data to detect threats quickly integration is necessity for detection and ensuring effective response


Question: AI enhances deterrence

Integration’s a necessity.

Kaur ’24 [Silky; March 4; Ph.D. from Jawaharlal University in Diplomacy and Disarmament, Associate Fellow at the Center for Air Power Studies; The Equation, “Artificial Intelligence and the Evolving Landscape of Nuclear Strategy,” https://blog.ucsusa.org/science-blogger/artificial-intelligence-and-the-evolving-landscape-of-nuclear-strategy/#:~:text=Effect%20of%20AI%20on%20nuclear%20deterrence&text=Some%20experts%20speculate%20that%20integrating,facilitating%20rapid%20decision%2Dmaking%20processes]

AI enhance deterrence by early warning c and c and decision-making AI could analyz data to detect threats quickly integration is necessity for detection and ensuring effective response


Question: AI integration for nuclear

Integration’s a necessity.

Kaur ’24 [Silky; March 4; Ph.D. from Jawaharlal University in Diplomacy and Disarmament, Associate Fellow at the Center for Air Power Studies; The Equation, “Artificial Intelligence and the Evolving Landscape of Nuclear Strategy,” https://blog.ucsusa.org/science-blogger/artificial-intelligence-and-the-evolving-landscape-of-nuclear-strategy/#:~:text=Effect%20of%20AI%20on%20nuclear%20deterrence&text=Some%20experts%20speculate%20that%20integrating,facilitating%20rapid%20decision%2Dmaking%20processes]

AI enhance deterrence by early warning c and c and decision-making AI could analyz data to detect threats quickly integration is necessity for detection and ensuring effective response


Question: AI and nuclear early warning

Integration’s a necessity.

Kaur ’24 [Silky; March 4; Ph.D. from Jawaharlal University in Diplomacy and Disarmament, Associate Fellow at the Center for Air Power Studies; The Equation, “Artificial Intelligence and the Evolving Landscape of Nuclear Strategy,” https://blog.ucsusa.org/science-blogger/artificial-intelligence-and-the-evolving-landscape-of-nuclear-strategy/#:~:text=Effect%20of%20AI%20on%20nuclear%20deterrence&text=Some%20experts%20speculate%20that%20integrating,facilitating%20rapid%20decision%2Dmaking%20processes]

AI enhance deterrence by early warning c and c and decision-making AI could analyz data to detect threats quickly integration is necessity for detection and ensuring effective response


Question: AI detection and effective response

Integration’s a necessity.

Kaur ’24 [Silky; March 4; Ph.D. from Jawaharlal University in Diplomacy and Disarmament, Associate Fellow at the Center for Air Power Studies; The Equation, “Artificial Intelligence and the Evolving Landscape of Nuclear Strategy,” https://blog.ucsusa.org/science-blogger/artificial-intelligence-and-the-evolving-landscape-of-nuclear-strategy/#:~:text=Effect%20of%20AI%20on%20nuclear%20deterrence&text=Some%20experts%20speculate%20that%20integrating,facilitating%20rapid%20decision%2Dmaking%20processes]

AI enhance deterrence by early warning c and c and decision-making AI could analyz data to detect threats quickly integration is necessity for detection and ensuring effective response


Question: Collapse of chemical industry extinction

Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.

Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]

New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth ,  climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future  lies in custom chemicals  and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that  mitigate problems The challenges we face  are unprecedented in human history,


Question: Danielpour 14

Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.

Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]

New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth ,  climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future  lies in custom chemicals  and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that  mitigate problems The challenges we face  are unprecedented in human history,


Question: chemical industry extinction

Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.

Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]

New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth ,  climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future  lies in custom chemicals  and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that  mitigate problems The challenges we face  are unprecedented in human history,


Question: sustainable coatings

Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.

Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]

New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth ,  climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future  lies in custom chemicals  and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that  mitigate problems The challenges we face  are unprecedented in human history,


Question: chemicals mitigate problems

Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.

Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]

New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth ,  climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future  lies in custom chemicals  and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that  mitigate problems The challenges we face  are unprecedented in human history,


Question: chemical industry collapse

Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.

Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]

New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth ,  climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future  lies in custom chemicals  and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that  mitigate problems The challenges we face  are unprecedented in human history,


Question: climate change human survival

Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.

Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]

New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth ,  climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future  lies in custom chemicals  and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that  mitigate problems The challenges we face  are unprecedented in human history,


Question: New tech chemical industry

Collapse of the chemical industry causes extinction.

Danielpour 14 [Steven; April 2014; AIA, CSI, CCS, LEED AP BD +C director of firmwide specifications at HOK, member of the corporate BuildingSmart, BIM, and Project Delivery boards; Cristalactiv, “Sustainable Coatings: Shifting the Paradigm,” http://www.cristalactiv.com/uploads/press/2014-04%20Sustainable%20Coatings_Danielpour%20D+D%20April%202014.pdf]

New tech will deliver innovations needed to respond to diminishing energy , water and megatrends, including population growth ,  climate change human survival depends on maintaining our ecological cycle The future  lies in custom chemicals  and new processing tech for the chemical industry industry produce healthier, environmentally sustainable chemicals that  mitigate problems The challenges we face  are unprecedented in human history,


Question: Climate change cascade extinction

AND it’ll cascade into extinction---effects are already collapsing ecosystems.

Jedediah F. Brodie & James E. M. Watson 23. Dr. Brodie is the John J. Craighead Endowed Chair of Conservation in Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program at the University of Montana, and was a Fulbright Research Fellow to Malaysia and a David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow with the Society for Conservation Biology. Dr. Watson is a Professor of Conservation Science at The University of Queensland, and was a Rhodes scholar, and has published more than 250 peer-reviewed papers on conservation related matters. Currently serves on the International Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Data and Knowledge Task Force, and is a Research Fellow for the United Nation's Environment Program, a Senior Technical expert for the United Nations Development Program's Global Programme on Nature for Development, and was the founding chair of the International Union for Nature Conservation Climate Change Specialist Group.  "Human responses to climate change will likely determine the fate of biodiversity". PNAS. 2/5/23. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2205512120

Climate change is an existential threat to humans reinforced in the IPCC and UN C B D climate disruption could have impacts in human societies and economies assessment are underestimating the problem climate change magnifies threats and is exacerbating species endangerment the pace of change make extinction crisis  Climate change magnifies biodiversity decline Warming can threaten deforestation  Rising ocean temperatures spread invasive species and toxic coral reefs cascade


Question: Brodie and Watson

AND it’ll cascade into extinction---effects are already collapsing ecosystems.

Jedediah F. Brodie & James E. M. Watson 23. Dr. Brodie is the John J. Craighead Endowed Chair of Conservation in Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program at the University of Montana, and was a Fulbright Research Fellow to Malaysia and a David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow with the Society for Conservation Biology. Dr. Watson is a Professor of Conservation Science at The University of Queensland, and was a Rhodes scholar, and has published more than 250 peer-reviewed papers on conservation related matters. Currently serves on the International Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Data and Knowledge Task Force, and is a Research Fellow for the United Nation's Environment Program, a Senior Technical expert for the United Nations Development Program's Global Programme on Nature for Development, and was the founding chair of the International Union for Nature Conservation Climate Change Specialist Group.  "Human responses to climate change will likely determine the fate of biodiversity". PNAS. 2/5/23. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2205512120

Climate change is an existential threat to humans reinforced in the IPCC and UN C B D climate disruption could have impacts in human societies and economies assessment are underestimating the problem climate change magnifies threats and is exacerbating species endangerment the pace of change make extinction crisis  Climate change magnifies biodiversity decline Warming can threaten deforestation  Rising ocean temperatures spread invasive species and toxic coral reefs cascade


Question: Climate change biodiversity decline

AND it’ll cascade into extinction---effects are already collapsing ecosystems.

Jedediah F. Brodie & James E. M. Watson 23. Dr. Brodie is the John J. Craighead Endowed Chair of Conservation in Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program at the University of Montana, and was a Fulbright Research Fellow to Malaysia and a David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow with the Society for Conservation Biology. Dr. Watson is a Professor of Conservation Science at The University of Queensland, and was a Rhodes scholar, and has published more than 250 peer-reviewed papers on conservation related matters. Currently serves on the International Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Data and Knowledge Task Force, and is a Research Fellow for the United Nation's Environment Program, a Senior Technical expert for the United Nations Development Program's Global Programme on Nature for Development, and was the founding chair of the International Union for Nature Conservation Climate Change Specialist Group.  "Human responses to climate change will likely determine the fate of biodiversity". PNAS. 2/5/23. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2205512120

Climate change is an existential threat to humans reinforced in the IPCC and UN C B D climate disruption could have impacts in human societies and economies assessment are underestimating the problem climate change magnifies threats and is exacerbating species endangerment the pace of change make extinction crisis  Climate change magnifies biodiversity decline Warming can threaten deforestation  Rising ocean temperatures spread invasive species and toxic coral reefs cascade


Question: ecosystems collapsing

AND it’ll cascade into extinction---effects are already collapsing ecosystems.

Jedediah F. Brodie & James E. M. Watson 23. Dr. Brodie is the John J. Craighead Endowed Chair of Conservation in Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program at the University of Montana, and was a Fulbright Research Fellow to Malaysia and a David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow with the Society for Conservation Biology. Dr. Watson is a Professor of Conservation Science at The University of Queensland, and was a Rhodes scholar, and has published more than 250 peer-reviewed papers on conservation related matters. Currently serves on the International Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Data and Knowledge Task Force, and is a Research Fellow for the United Nation's Environment Program, a Senior Technical expert for the United Nations Development Program's Global Programme on Nature for Development, and was the founding chair of the International Union for Nature Conservation Climate Change Specialist Group.  "Human responses to climate change will likely determine the fate of biodiversity". PNAS. 2/5/23. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2205512120

Climate change is an existential threat to humans reinforced in the IPCC and UN C B D climate disruption could have impacts in human societies and economies assessment are underestimating the problem climate change magnifies threats and is exacerbating species endangerment the pace of change make extinction crisis  Climate change magnifies biodiversity decline Warming can threaten deforestation  Rising ocean temperatures spread invasive species and toxic coral reefs cascade


Question: climate change magnifies threats

AND it’ll cascade into extinction---effects are already collapsing ecosystems.

Jedediah F. Brodie & James E. M. Watson 23. Dr. Brodie is the John J. Craighead Endowed Chair of Conservation in Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program at the University of Montana, and was a Fulbright Research Fellow to Malaysia and a David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow with the Society for Conservation Biology. Dr. Watson is a Professor of Conservation Science at The University of Queensland, and was a Rhodes scholar, and has published more than 250 peer-reviewed papers on conservation related matters. Currently serves on the International Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Data and Knowledge Task Force, and is a Research Fellow for the United Nation's Environment Program, a Senior Technical expert for the United Nations Development Program's Global Programme on Nature for Development, and was the founding chair of the International Union for Nature Conservation Climate Change Specialist Group.  "Human responses to climate change will likely determine the fate of biodiversity". PNAS. 2/5/23. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2205512120

Climate change is an existential threat to humans reinforced in the IPCC and UN C B D climate disruption could have impacts in human societies and economies assessment are underestimating the problem climate change magnifies threats and is exacerbating species endangerment the pace of change make extinction crisis  Climate change magnifies biodiversity decline Warming can threaten deforestation  Rising ocean temperatures spread invasive species and toxic coral reefs cascade


Question: existential threat to humans

AND it’ll cascade into extinction---effects are already collapsing ecosystems.

Jedediah F. Brodie & James E. M. Watson 23. Dr. Brodie is the John J. Craighead Endowed Chair of Conservation in Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program at the University of Montana, and was a Fulbright Research Fellow to Malaysia and a David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow with the Society for Conservation Biology. Dr. Watson is a Professor of Conservation Science at The University of Queensland, and was a Rhodes scholar, and has published more than 250 peer-reviewed papers on conservation related matters. Currently serves on the International Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Data and Knowledge Task Force, and is a Research Fellow for the United Nation's Environment Program, a Senior Technical expert for the United Nations Development Program's Global Programme on Nature for Development, and was the founding chair of the International Union for Nature Conservation Climate Change Specialist Group.  "Human responses to climate change will likely determine the fate of biodiversity". PNAS. 2/5/23. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2205512120

Climate change is an existential threat to humans reinforced in the IPCC and UN C B D climate disruption could have impacts in human societies and economies assessment are underestimating the problem climate change magnifies threats and is exacerbating species endangerment the pace of change make extinction crisis  Climate change magnifies biodiversity decline Warming can threaten deforestation  Rising ocean temperatures spread invasive species and toxic coral reefs cascade


Question: rising ocean temperatures

AND it’ll cascade into extinction---effects are already collapsing ecosystems.

Jedediah F. Brodie & James E. M. Watson 23. Dr. Brodie is the John J. Craighead Endowed Chair of Conservation in Division of Biological Sciences and Wildlife Biology Program at the University of Montana, and was a Fulbright Research Fellow to Malaysia and a David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow with the Society for Conservation Biology. Dr. Watson is a Professor of Conservation Science at The University of Queensland, and was a Rhodes scholar, and has published more than 250 peer-reviewed papers on conservation related matters. Currently serves on the International Panel for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Data and Knowledge Task Force, and is a Research Fellow for the United Nation's Environment Program, a Senior Technical expert for the United Nations Development Program's Global Programme on Nature for Development, and was the founding chair of the International Union for Nature Conservation Climate Change Specialist Group.  "Human responses to climate change will likely determine the fate of biodiversity". PNAS. 2/5/23. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2205512120

Climate change is an existential threat to humans reinforced in the IPCC and UN C B D climate disruption could have impacts in human societies and economies assessment are underestimating the problem climate change magnifies threats and is exacerbating species endangerment the pace of change make extinction crisis  Climate change magnifies biodiversity decline Warming can threaten deforestation  Rising ocean temperatures spread invasive species and toxic coral reefs cascade


Question: AFF economic reasoning fails

The AFF’s economic style of reasoning ensures serial policy failure.

Berman 22 – Elizabeth Popp Berman, Director and Richard H. Price Professor of Organizational Studies at the University of Michigan, Thinking Like An Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equality in U.S. Public Policy, pgs. 5-10)

assumptions starts with incentives and externalities models simplify causal  policy  stories students learn to “ think  like  an  economist appreciation  of  markets as efficient allocators creat legal framework that correct for market failures economic  style  portrays  efficiency  as politically  neutral centering efficiency displacing other political values ignoring politics behind efficient policy decisions NEPA Clean  Air strong, inflexible rules regulatory capture policies effective pollution trended sharply downward not reflect economic reasoning externality solution price on pollution through , transformation in environmental policy turned from moral framework pollution simply externality to be priced changed political space failed to capture deep interdependence of living elements in ecological system when  people  of  color  organized to  demand  environmental  justice when EPA responded did  so  by  turning demands for racial justice into economic calculation of relative risk burden rethinking competing values in language of economics comes at cost of violence to originals moral imperative relegated to margins not as starting point places significant constraints on range of possibilities policymakers define as reasonable


Question: Berman 22

The AFF’s economic style of reasoning ensures serial policy failure.

Berman 22 – Elizabeth Popp Berman, Director and Richard H. Price Professor of Organizational Studies at the University of Michigan, Thinking Like An Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equality in U.S. Public Policy, pgs. 5-10)

assumptions starts with incentives and externalities models simplify causal  policy  stories students learn to “ think  like  an  economist appreciation  of  markets as efficient allocators creat legal framework that correct for market failures economic  style  portrays  efficiency  as politically  neutral centering efficiency displacing other political values ignoring politics behind efficient policy decisions NEPA Clean  Air strong, inflexible rules regulatory capture policies effective pollution trended sharply downward not reflect economic reasoning externality solution price on pollution through , transformation in environmental policy turned from moral framework pollution simply externality to be priced changed political space failed to capture deep interdependence of living elements in ecological system when  people  of  color  organized to  demand  environmental  justice when EPA responded did  so  by  turning demands for racial justice into economic calculation of relative risk burden rethinking competing values in language of economics comes at cost of violence to originals moral imperative relegated to margins not as starting point places significant constraints on range of possibilities policymakers define as reasonable


Question: Elizabeth Popp Berman

The AFF’s economic style of reasoning ensures serial policy failure.

Berman 22 – Elizabeth Popp Berman, Director and Richard H. Price Professor of Organizational Studies at the University of Michigan, Thinking Like An Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equality in U.S. Public Policy, pgs. 5-10)

assumptions starts with incentives and externalities models simplify causal  policy  stories students learn to “ think  like  an  economist appreciation  of  markets as efficient allocators creat legal framework that correct for market failures economic  style  portrays  efficiency  as politically  neutral centering efficiency displacing other political values ignoring politics behind efficient policy decisions NEPA Clean  Air strong, inflexible rules regulatory capture policies effective pollution trended sharply downward not reflect economic reasoning externality solution price on pollution through , transformation in environmental policy turned from moral framework pollution simply externality to be priced changed political space failed to capture deep interdependence of living elements in ecological system when  people  of  color  organized to  demand  environmental  justice when EPA responded did  so  by  turning demands for racial justice into economic calculation of relative risk burden rethinking competing values in language of economics comes at cost of violence to originals moral imperative relegated to margins not as starting point places significant constraints on range of possibilities policymakers define as reasonable


Question: economic style ensures policy failure

The AFF’s economic style of reasoning ensures serial policy failure.

Berman 22 – Elizabeth Popp Berman, Director and Richard H. Price Professor of Organizational Studies at the University of Michigan, Thinking Like An Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equality in U.S. Public Policy, pgs. 5-10)

assumptions starts with incentives and externalities models simplify causal  policy  stories students learn to “ think  like  an  economist appreciation  of  markets as efficient allocators creat legal framework that correct for market failures economic  style  portrays  efficiency  as politically  neutral centering efficiency displacing other political values ignoring politics behind efficient policy decisions NEPA Clean  Air strong, inflexible rules regulatory capture policies effective pollution trended sharply downward not reflect economic reasoning externality solution price on pollution through , transformation in environmental policy turned from moral framework pollution simply externality to be priced changed political space failed to capture deep interdependence of living elements in ecological system when  people  of  color  organized to  demand  environmental  justice when EPA responded did  so  by  turning demands for racial justice into economic calculation of relative risk burden rethinking competing values in language of economics comes at cost of violence to originals moral imperative relegated to margins not as starting point places significant constraints on range of possibilities policymakers define as reasonable


Question: efficiency replaces equality

The AFF’s economic style of reasoning ensures serial policy failure.

Berman 22 – Elizabeth Popp Berman, Director and Richard H. Price Professor of Organizational Studies at the University of Michigan, Thinking Like An Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equality in U.S. Public Policy, pgs. 5-10)

assumptions starts with incentives and externalities models simplify causal  policy  stories students learn to “ think  like  an  economist appreciation  of  markets as efficient allocators creat legal framework that correct for market failures economic  style  portrays  efficiency  as politically  neutral centering efficiency displacing other political values ignoring politics behind efficient policy decisions NEPA Clean  Air strong, inflexible rules regulatory capture policies effective pollution trended sharply downward not reflect economic reasoning externality solution price on pollution through , transformation in environmental policy turned from moral framework pollution simply externality to be priced changed political space failed to capture deep interdependence of living elements in ecological system when  people  of  color  organized to  demand  environmental  justice when EPA responded did  so  by  turning demands for racial justice into economic calculation of relative risk burden rethinking competing values in language of economics comes at cost of violence to originals moral imperative relegated to margins not as starting point places significant constraints on range of possibilities policymakers define as reasonable


Question: environmental justice economic calculation

The AFF’s economic style of reasoning ensures serial policy failure.

Berman 22 – Elizabeth Popp Berman, Director and Richard H. Price Professor of Organizational Studies at the University of Michigan, Thinking Like An Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equality in U.S. Public Policy, pgs. 5-10)

assumptions starts with incentives and externalities models simplify causal  policy  stories students learn to “ think  like  an  economist appreciation  of  markets as efficient allocators creat legal framework that correct for market failures economic  style  portrays  efficiency  as politically  neutral centering efficiency displacing other political values ignoring politics behind efficient policy decisions NEPA Clean  Air strong, inflexible rules regulatory capture policies effective pollution trended sharply downward not reflect economic reasoning externality solution price on pollution through , transformation in environmental policy turned from moral framework pollution simply externality to be priced changed political space failed to capture deep interdependence of living elements in ecological system when  people  of  color  organized to  demand  environmental  justice when EPA responded did  so  by  turning demands for racial justice into economic calculation of relative risk burden rethinking competing values in language of economics comes at cost of violence to originals moral imperative relegated to margins not as starting point places significant constraints on range of possibilities policymakers define as reasonable


Question: thinking like an economist

The AFF’s economic style of reasoning ensures serial policy failure.

Berman 22 – Elizabeth Popp Berman, Director and Richard H. Price Professor of Organizational Studies at the University of Michigan, Thinking Like An Economist: How Efficiency Replaced Equality in U.S. Public Policy, pgs. 5-10)

assumptions starts with incentives and externalities models simplify causal  policy  stories students learn to “ think  like  an  economist appreciation  of  markets as efficient allocators creat legal framework that correct for market failures economic  style  portrays  efficiency  as politically  neutral centering efficiency displacing other political values ignoring politics behind efficient policy decisions NEPA Clean  Air strong, inflexible rules regulatory capture policies effective pollution trended sharply downward not reflect economic reasoning externality solution price on pollution through , transformation in environmental policy turned from moral framework pollution simply externality to be priced changed political space failed to capture deep interdependence of living elements in ecological system when  people  of  color  organized to  demand  environmental  justice when EPA responded did  so  by  turning demands for racial justice into economic calculation of relative risk burden rethinking competing values in language of economics comes at cost of violence to originals moral imperative relegated to margins not as starting point places significant constraints on range of possibilities policymakers define as reasonable


Question: Burst is inevitable

Burst is inevitable---regulations, climate change, transition now

Zaelke and Swann ’24 [Durwood Zaelke is president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Management. Stacy A. Swann is founder and CEO of Resilient Earth Capital; 4-16-2024, "Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts", Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/]

Climate change  driving the world toward a financial crisis similar to 08 the E U is at risk of financial shock as economies adjust to stronger constraints and governments take action to clean energy fossil fuel industry invest 50 percent of its annual capital in clean energy The value of carbon-intensive assets will start to decrease climate impacts will cause far greater financial losses regulations will tighten


Question: Zaelke and Swann 2024

Burst is inevitable---regulations, climate change, transition now

Zaelke and Swann ’24 [Durwood Zaelke is president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Management. Stacy A. Swann is founder and CEO of Resilient Earth Capital; 4-16-2024, "Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts", Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/]

Climate change  driving the world toward a financial crisis similar to 08 the E U is at risk of financial shock as economies adjust to stronger constraints and governments take action to clean energy fossil fuel industry invest 50 percent of its annual capital in clean energy The value of carbon-intensive assets will start to decrease climate impacts will cause far greater financial losses regulations will tighten


Question: fossil fuel bubble bursts

Burst is inevitable---regulations, climate change, transition now

Zaelke and Swann ’24 [Durwood Zaelke is president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Management. Stacy A. Swann is founder and CEO of Resilient Earth Capital; 4-16-2024, "Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts", Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/]

Climate change  driving the world toward a financial crisis similar to 08 the E U is at risk of financial shock as economies adjust to stronger constraints and governments take action to clean energy fossil fuel industry invest 50 percent of its annual capital in clean energy The value of carbon-intensive assets will start to decrease climate impacts will cause far greater financial losses regulations will tighten


Question: climate change financial crisis

Burst is inevitable---regulations, climate change, transition now

Zaelke and Swann ’24 [Durwood Zaelke is president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Management. Stacy A. Swann is founder and CEO of Resilient Earth Capital; 4-16-2024, "Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts", Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/]

Climate change  driving the world toward a financial crisis similar to 08 the E U is at risk of financial shock as economies adjust to stronger constraints and governments take action to clean energy fossil fuel industry invest 50 percent of its annual capital in clean energy The value of carbon-intensive assets will start to decrease climate impacts will cause far greater financial losses regulations will tighten


Question: carbon intensive assets decrease

Burst is inevitable---regulations, climate change, transition now

Zaelke and Swann ’24 [Durwood Zaelke is president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Management. Stacy A. Swann is founder and CEO of Resilient Earth Capital; 4-16-2024, "Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts", Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/]

Climate change  driving the world toward a financial crisis similar to 08 the E U is at risk of financial shock as economies adjust to stronger constraints and governments take action to clean energy fossil fuel industry invest 50 percent of its annual capital in clean energy The value of carbon-intensive assets will start to decrease climate impacts will cause far greater financial losses regulations will tighten


Question: financial fallout fossil fuel

Burst is inevitable---regulations, climate change, transition now

Zaelke and Swann ’24 [Durwood Zaelke is president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Management. Stacy A. Swann is founder and CEO of Resilient Earth Capital; 4-16-2024, "Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts", Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/]

Climate change  driving the world toward a financial crisis similar to 08 the E U is at risk of financial shock as economies adjust to stronger constraints and governments take action to clean energy fossil fuel industry invest 50 percent of its annual capital in clean energy The value of carbon-intensive assets will start to decrease climate impacts will cause far greater financial losses regulations will tighten


Question: climate change drives financial crisis

Burst is inevitable---regulations, climate change, transition now

Zaelke and Swann ’24 [Durwood Zaelke is president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Management. Stacy A. Swann is founder and CEO of Resilient Earth Capital; 4-16-2024, "Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts", Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/]

Climate change  driving the world toward a financial crisis similar to 08 the E U is at risk of financial shock as economies adjust to stronger constraints and governments take action to clean energy fossil fuel industry invest 50 percent of its annual capital in clean energy The value of carbon-intensive assets will start to decrease climate impacts will cause far greater financial losses regulations will tighten


Question: EU risk financial shock

Burst is inevitable---regulations, climate change, transition now

Zaelke and Swann ’24 [Durwood Zaelke is president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development and an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science and Management. Stacy A. Swann is founder and CEO of Resilient Earth Capital; 4-16-2024, "Expect financial fallout when the fossil fuel bubble finally bursts", Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4590103-expect-financial-fallout-when-the-fossil-fuel-bubble-finally-bursts/]

Climate change  driving the world toward a financial crisis similar to 08 the E U is at risk of financial shock as economies adjust to stronger constraints and governments take action to clean energy fossil fuel industry invest 50 percent of its annual capital in clean energy The value of carbon-intensive assets will start to decrease climate impacts will cause far greater financial losses regulations will tighten


Question: chlorine gas shatters ozone layer

Chlorine gas catalyzes positive feedback loops which shatter the ozone layer.

Ozone Watch NASA 18. “What is the Ozone Hole.” Ozone Watch. 10/18/2018. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/hole_SH.html

ozone hole is caused by chemicals in the atmosphere free chlorine participate in reactions that destroy ozone and return the atom unchanged reactions convert inactive chemicals into active forms especially chlorine gas A catalytic reaction allows a single chlorine to destroy thousands of ozone molecules


Question: ozone watch nasa 18

Chlorine gas catalyzes positive feedback loops which shatter the ozone layer.

Ozone Watch NASA 18. “What is the Ozone Hole.” Ozone Watch. 10/18/2018. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/hole_SH.html

ozone hole is caused by chemicals in the atmosphere free chlorine participate in reactions that destroy ozone and return the atom unchanged reactions convert inactive chemicals into active forms especially chlorine gas A catalytic reaction allows a single chlorine to destroy thousands of ozone molecules


Question: chlorine destroys ozone

Chlorine gas catalyzes positive feedback loops which shatter the ozone layer.

Ozone Watch NASA 18. “What is the Ozone Hole.” Ozone Watch. 10/18/2018. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/hole_SH.html

ozone hole is caused by chemicals in the atmosphere free chlorine participate in reactions that destroy ozone and return the atom unchanged reactions convert inactive chemicals into active forms especially chlorine gas A catalytic reaction allows a single chlorine to destroy thousands of ozone molecules


Question: ozone hole chemicals

Chlorine gas catalyzes positive feedback loops which shatter the ozone layer.

Ozone Watch NASA 18. “What is the Ozone Hole.” Ozone Watch. 10/18/2018. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/hole_SH.html

ozone hole is caused by chemicals in the atmosphere free chlorine participate in reactions that destroy ozone and return the atom unchanged reactions convert inactive chemicals into active forms especially chlorine gas A catalytic reaction allows a single chlorine to destroy thousands of ozone molecules


Question: chlorine gas feedback loop

Chlorine gas catalyzes positive feedback loops which shatter the ozone layer.

Ozone Watch NASA 18. “What is the Ozone Hole.” Ozone Watch. 10/18/2018. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/hole_SH.html

ozone hole is caused by chemicals in the atmosphere free chlorine participate in reactions that destroy ozone and return the atom unchanged reactions convert inactive chemicals into active forms especially chlorine gas A catalytic reaction allows a single chlorine to destroy thousands of ozone molecules


Question: chlorine destroy thousands of ozone

Chlorine gas catalyzes positive feedback loops which shatter the ozone layer.

Ozone Watch NASA 18. “What is the Ozone Hole.” Ozone Watch. 10/18/2018. https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/hole_SH.html

ozone hole is caused by chemicals in the atmosphere free chlorine participate in reactions that destroy ozone and return the atom unchanged reactions convert inactive chemicals into active forms especially chlorine gas A catalytic reaction allows a single chlorine to destroy thousands of ozone molecules


Question: Uncertainty increases innovation

Uncertainty increases innovation. This is especially true in the context of MBIs.

Zhu 21 [Yu Zhu (PhD, Associate Professor, Renmin University of China; Former Principal Economist, Bank of Canada; Ph.D. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2014; M.S. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2010; M.A. (Economics), Fudan University, China, 2008; B.A. (Economics), Nanjing University, China, 2005), Ziyuan Sun, Shiyu Zhang, and Xiaolin Wang, September 2021, “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Environmental Regulation, and Green Innovation—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese High-Tech Enterprises,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18, https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9503; njn]

economic policy uncertainty will promote innovation the higher the uncertainty the greater the possibility of disruptive changes the greater the possibility to grow through early innovation enterprises increase R&D to cope with uncertainty


Question: Zhu 21

Uncertainty increases innovation. This is especially true in the context of MBIs.

Zhu 21 [Yu Zhu (PhD, Associate Professor, Renmin University of China; Former Principal Economist, Bank of Canada; Ph.D. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2014; M.S. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2010; M.A. (Economics), Fudan University, China, 2008; B.A. (Economics), Nanjing University, China, 2005), Ziyuan Sun, Shiyu Zhang, and Xiaolin Wang, September 2021, “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Environmental Regulation, and Green Innovation—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese High-Tech Enterprises,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18, https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9503; njn]

economic policy uncertainty will promote innovation the higher the uncertainty the greater the possibility of disruptive changes the greater the possibility to grow through early innovation enterprises increase R&D to cope with uncertainty


Question: Yu Zhu uncertainty

Uncertainty increases innovation. This is especially true in the context of MBIs.

Zhu 21 [Yu Zhu (PhD, Associate Professor, Renmin University of China; Former Principal Economist, Bank of Canada; Ph.D. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2014; M.S. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2010; M.A. (Economics), Fudan University, China, 2008; B.A. (Economics), Nanjing University, China, 2005), Ziyuan Sun, Shiyu Zhang, and Xiaolin Wang, September 2021, “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Environmental Regulation, and Green Innovation—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese High-Tech Enterprises,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18, https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9503; njn]

economic policy uncertainty will promote innovation the higher the uncertainty the greater the possibility of disruptive changes the greater the possibility to grow through early innovation enterprises increase R&D to cope with uncertainty


Question: Economic policy uncertainty promotes innovation

Uncertainty increases innovation. This is especially true in the context of MBIs.

Zhu 21 [Yu Zhu (PhD, Associate Professor, Renmin University of China; Former Principal Economist, Bank of Canada; Ph.D. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2014; M.S. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2010; M.A. (Economics), Fudan University, China, 2008; B.A. (Economics), Nanjing University, China, 2005), Ziyuan Sun, Shiyu Zhang, and Xiaolin Wang, September 2021, “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Environmental Regulation, and Green Innovation—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese High-Tech Enterprises,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18, https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9503; njn]

economic policy uncertainty will promote innovation the higher the uncertainty the greater the possibility of disruptive changes the greater the possibility to grow through early innovation enterprises increase R&D to cope with uncertainty


Question: uncertainty and innovation

Uncertainty increases innovation. This is especially true in the context of MBIs.

Zhu 21 [Yu Zhu (PhD, Associate Professor, Renmin University of China; Former Principal Economist, Bank of Canada; Ph.D. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2014; M.S. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2010; M.A. (Economics), Fudan University, China, 2008; B.A. (Economics), Nanjing University, China, 2005), Ziyuan Sun, Shiyu Zhang, and Xiaolin Wang, September 2021, “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Environmental Regulation, and Green Innovation—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese High-Tech Enterprises,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18, https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9503; njn]

economic policy uncertainty will promote innovation the higher the uncertainty the greater the possibility of disruptive changes the greater the possibility to grow through early innovation enterprises increase R&D to cope with uncertainty


Question: MBI uncertainty good

Uncertainty increases innovation. This is especially true in the context of MBIs.

Zhu 21 [Yu Zhu (PhD, Associate Professor, Renmin University of China; Former Principal Economist, Bank of Canada; Ph.D. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2014; M.S. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2010; M.A. (Economics), Fudan University, China, 2008; B.A. (Economics), Nanjing University, China, 2005), Ziyuan Sun, Shiyu Zhang, and Xiaolin Wang, September 2021, “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Environmental Regulation, and Green Innovation—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese High-Tech Enterprises,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18, https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9503; njn]

economic policy uncertainty will promote innovation the higher the uncertainty the greater the possibility of disruptive changes the greater the possibility to grow through early innovation enterprises increase R&D to cope with uncertainty


Question: uncertainty increases R&D

Uncertainty increases innovation. This is especially true in the context of MBIs.

Zhu 21 [Yu Zhu (PhD, Associate Professor, Renmin University of China; Former Principal Economist, Bank of Canada; Ph.D. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2014; M.S. (Economics), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2010; M.A. (Economics), Fudan University, China, 2008; B.A. (Economics), Nanjing University, China, 2005), Ziyuan Sun, Shiyu Zhang, and Xiaolin Wang, September 2021, “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Environmental Regulation, and Green Innovation—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese High-Tech Enterprises,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 18, https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/18/9503; njn]

economic policy uncertainty will promote innovation the higher the uncertainty the greater the possibility of disruptive changes the greater the possibility to grow through early innovation enterprises increase R&D to cope with uncertainty


Question: Atlantic drilling priority

a)  Atlantic drilling is the exact priority they’ll push

Ari Natter 17, Bloomberg reporter; and Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Bloomberg reporter, 10/18/17, “Republicans May Use Budget to Open Arctic, Atlantic to Oil Rigs,” https://gcaptain.com/republicans-may-use-budget-open-arctic-atlantic-oil-rigs/

drillers lobbied Trump to open other areas including mid-Atlantic waters those might be easier and cheaper than ANWR opportunity to advance energy priorities that stalled remains tempting for Republicans


Question: Natter and Dlouhy

a)  Atlantic drilling is the exact priority they’ll push

Ari Natter 17, Bloomberg reporter; and Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Bloomberg reporter, 10/18/17, “Republicans May Use Budget to Open Arctic, Atlantic to Oil Rigs,” https://gcaptain.com/republicans-may-use-budget-open-arctic-atlantic-oil-rigs/

drillers lobbied Trump to open other areas including mid-Atlantic waters those might be easier and cheaper than ANWR opportunity to advance energy priorities that stalled remains tempting for Republicans


Question: republicans open arctic and atlantic

a)  Atlantic drilling is the exact priority they’ll push

Ari Natter 17, Bloomberg reporter; and Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Bloomberg reporter, 10/18/17, “Republicans May Use Budget to Open Arctic, Atlantic to Oil Rigs,” https://gcaptain.com/republicans-may-use-budget-open-arctic-atlantic-oil-rigs/

drillers lobbied Trump to open other areas including mid-Atlantic waters those might be easier and cheaper than ANWR opportunity to advance energy priorities that stalled remains tempting for Republicans


Question: Atlantic drilling cheaper

a)  Atlantic drilling is the exact priority they’ll push

Ari Natter 17, Bloomberg reporter; and Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Bloomberg reporter, 10/18/17, “Republicans May Use Budget to Open Arctic, Atlantic to Oil Rigs,” https://gcaptain.com/republicans-may-use-budget-open-arctic-atlantic-oil-rigs/

drillers lobbied Trump to open other areas including mid-Atlantic waters those might be easier and cheaper than ANWR opportunity to advance energy priorities that stalled remains tempting for Republicans


Question: advance energy priorities

a)  Atlantic drilling is the exact priority they’ll push

Ari Natter 17, Bloomberg reporter; and Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Bloomberg reporter, 10/18/17, “Republicans May Use Budget to Open Arctic, Atlantic to Oil Rigs,” https://gcaptain.com/republicans-may-use-budget-open-arctic-atlantic-oil-rigs/

drillers lobbied Trump to open other areas including mid-Atlantic waters those might be easier and cheaper than ANWR opportunity to advance energy priorities that stalled remains tempting for Republicans


Question: RPS is net-pollution reducing

RPS is net-pollution reducing.

Ryan Wiser et al. 16. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. With Galen Barbose, Jenny Heeter, Trieu Mai, Lori Bird, Mark Bolinger, Alberta Carpenter, Garvin Heath, David Keyser, Jordan Macknick, Andrew Mills, and Dev Millstein. A Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2016, NREL/TP-6A20-65005. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65005.pdf. Accessed 3 August 2024

RPS reduced emissions of SO2 NOx and PM2.5 to 2% of corresponding power emissions reductions are concentrated in the most aggressive standards states with biomass serving compliance had small increases emission increases do not lead to increases in total pollutant or health damages reductions in other emissions counteract emissions reductions improved air and health outcom benefits are net of emissions from biomass health benefits are dominated by SO2 reductions