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nfl-4th-down-win-pct-recommender

Tabular Regression
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nfl-4th-down-win-pct-recommender
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---
language: en
license: mit
library_name: keras
pipeline_tag: tabular-regression
tags:
  - football
  - sports-analytics
  - decision-support
  - win-probability
  - tabular
  - keras
model-index:
  - name: NFL 4th-Down Decision MLP
    results:
      - task:
          type: tabular-regression
          name: ΔWP regression (go / field goal / punt)
        dataset:
          name: NFL play-by-play (2016–2024)
          type: custom
          split: test (2023–2024)
        metrics:
          - name: Policy agreement (top-ΔWP)
            type: policy-agreement
            value: 0.794
          - name: Mean regret ΔWP (overall)
            type: mean-regret
            value: 0.0023
          - name: Policy agreement (late & close)
            type: policy-agreement
            value: 0.744
          - name: Mean regret ΔWP (late & close)
            type: mean-regret
            value: 0.0099
---

# NFL 4th-Down Decision Model

Small multi-task MLP that recommends **go / field goal / punt** on 4th down by
predicting the change in win probability (ΔWP) for each action.  
Trained on 2016-2024 NFL play-by-play data with labels generated by
[`nfl4th::add_4th_probs()`](https://github.com/guga31bb/nfl4th).

## Model description
- **Inputs** (23 features): quarter, game/half seconds remaining, yardline,
  yards-to-go, score differential, timeouts, weather, point spread, and one-hot
  roof/surface indicators, plus derived helpers (e.g., `fg_dist_yd`,
  `in_fg_range`). See `feature_order.json` for exact schema.
- **Outputs**: ΔWP for go/field-goal/punt (main head) and auxiliary heads
  predicting FG make and 4th-down conversion probabilities.
- **Recommendation**: choose the action with highest ΔWP.

## Training
- **Split**: 2016-2021 train, 2022 validation, 2023-2024 test.
- **Objective**: Huber loss for ΔWP + 0.2·MSE(aux).
- **Optimizer/regularization**: AdamW, BatchNorm, Dropout, L2.
- **Artifacts**: best weights saved as `mlp_dwp_plus_aux_best.keras`.

## Evaluation (2023–2024 test set)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---:|
| Policy agreement | 0.794 |
| Mean regret (ΔWP) | 0.0023 |
| Late & close (≤600 s, abs(score) ≤ 8) agreement | 0.744 |
| Late & close mean regret | 0.0099 |

*(ΔWP reported in win-probability points; lower regret is better.)*

## Usage

### Load from this repo (Hugging Face Hub)
```python
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
import tensorflow as tf
import numpy as np

repo_id = "YOUR_USERNAME/YOUR_REPO"  # change to your model repo
weights = "mlp_dwp_plus_aux_best.keras"

path = hf_hub_download(repo_id=repo_id, filename=weights)
model = tf.keras.models.load_model(path)

# example input (dict of feature: np.array([value]))
x = {
    "quarter": np.array([2.0]),
    "game_seconds_remaining": np.array([1800.0]),
    "half_seconds_remaining": np.array([900.0]),
    "yardline_100": np.array([60.0]),
    "ydstogo": np.array([4.0]),
    "score_differential": np.array([3.0]),
    "receive_2h_ko": np.array([1.0]),
    "timeouts_off": np.array([3.0]),
    "timeouts_def": np.array([3.0]),
    "timeouts_total": np.array([6.0]),
    "timeouts_diff": np.array([0.0]),
    "temp_f": np.array([70.0]),
    "wind_mph": np.array([5.0]),
    "spread_line": np.array([0.0]),
    "fg_dist_yd": np.array([77.0]),
    "in_fg_range": np.array([0.0]),
    "one_score": np.array([1.0]),
    "late_game": np.array([0.0]),
    "second_half": np.array([0.0]),
    "roof": np.array(["outdoors"]),
    "surface": np.array(["grass"]),
}

pred = model.predict(x, verbose=0)["dwp"][0]  # ΔWP for [go, FG, punt]
actions = ["Go for it", "Field goal", "Punt"]
print(dict(zip(actions, pred)))
```

## Intended use & limitations

    Purpose: Educational decision assistant for 4th‑down scenarios.

    Not for wagering or real‑time coaching; relies on historical
    probabilities and inherits assumptions from nfl4th.

    Weather and wp_punt imputation introduce simplifications; apply domain
    judgment when using recommendations.

## Citation

If you use this model, please cite the original project:

Villagran, M. (2025). NFL 4th-Down WinPct Recommender. MIT License.