Daily Papers

Recent advances demonstrate that increasing inference-time computation can significantly boost the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Although repeated sampling (i.e., generating multiple candidate outputs) is a highly effective strategy, it does not leverage external feedback signals for refinement, which are often available in tasks like coding. In this work, we propose Adaptive Branching Monte Carlo Tree Search (AB-MCTS), a novel inference-time framework that generalizes repeated sampling with principled multi-turn exploration and exploitation. At each node in the search tree, AB-MCTS dynamically decides whether to "go wider" by expanding new candidate responses or "go deeper" by revisiting existing ones based on external feedback signals. We evaluate our method on complex coding and engineering tasks using frontier models. Empirical results show that AB-MCTS consistently outperforms both repeated sampling and standard MCTS, underscoring the importance of combining the response diversity of LLMs with multi-turn solution refinement for effective inference-time scaling.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a powerful algorithm for solving complex decision-making problems. This paper presents an optimized MCTS implementation applied to the FrozenLake environment, a classic reinforcement learning task characterized by stochastic transitions. The optimization leverages cumulative reward and visit count tables along with the Upper Confidence Bound for Trees (UCT) formula, resulting in efficient learning in a slippery grid world. We benchmark our implementation against other decision-making algorithms, including MCTS with Policy and Q-Learning, and perform a detailed comparison of their performance. The results demonstrate that our optimized approach effectively maximizes rewards and success rates while minimizing convergence time, outperforming baseline methods, especially in environments with inherent randomness.

Building agents based on tree-search planning capabilities with learned models has achieved remarkable success in classic decision-making problems, such as Go and Atari. However, it has been deemed challenging or even infeasible to extend Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) based algorithms to diverse real-world applications, especially when these environments involve complex action spaces and significant simulation costs, or inherent stochasticity. In this work, we introduce LightZero, the first unified benchmark for deploying MCTS/MuZero in general sequential decision scenarios. Specificially, we summarize the most critical challenges in designing a general MCTS-style decision-making solver, then decompose the tightly-coupled algorithm and system design of tree-search RL methods into distinct sub-modules. By incorporating more appropriate exploration and optimization strategies, we can significantly enhance these sub-modules and construct powerful LightZero agents to tackle tasks across a wide range of domains, such as board games, Atari, MuJoCo, MiniGrid and GoBigger. Detailed benchmark results reveal the significant potential of such methods in building scalable and efficient decision intelligence. The code is available as part of OpenDILab at https://github.com/opendilab/LightZero.

Handcrafting heuristics for solving complex planning tasks (e.g., NP-hard combinatorial optimization (CO) problems) is a common practice but requires extensive domain knowledge. Recently, Large Language Model (LLM)-based automatic heuristics design (AHD) methods have shown promise in generating high-quality heuristics without manual intervention. Existing LLM-based AHD methods employ a population to maintain a fixed number of top-performing LLM-generated heuristics and introduce evolutionary computation (EC) to enhance the population iteratively. However, the population-based procedure brings greedy properties, often resulting in convergence to local optima. Instead, to more comprehensively explore the space of heuristics, we propose using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) for LLM-based heuristic evolution while preserving all LLM-generated heuristics in a tree structure. With a novel thought-alignment process and an exploration-decay technique, the proposed MCTS-AHD method delivers significantly higher-quality heuristics on various complex tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/zz1358m/MCTS-AHD-master.

This paper introduces the MCT Self-Refine (MCTSr) algorithm, an innovative integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), designed to enhance performance in complex mathematical reasoning tasks. Addressing the challenges of accuracy and reliability in LLMs, particularly in strategic and mathematical reasoning, MCTSr leverages systematic exploration and heuristic self-refine mechanisms to improve decision-making frameworks within LLMs. The algorithm constructs a Monte Carlo search tree through iterative processes of Selection, self-refine, self-evaluation, and Backpropagation, utilizing an improved Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) formula to optimize the exploration-exploitation balance. Extensive experiments demonstrate MCTSr's efficacy in solving Olympiad-level mathematical problems, significantly improving success rates across multiple datasets, including GSM8K, GSM Hard, MATH, and Olympiad-level benchmarks, including Math Odyssey, AIME, and OlympiadBench. The study advances the application of LLMs in complex reasoning tasks and sets a foundation for future AI integration, enhancing decision-making accuracy and reliability in LLM-driven applications.

The Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) remains a fundamental challenge in combinatorial optimization, inspiring diverse algorithmic strategies. This paper revisits the "heatmap + Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)" paradigm that has recently gained traction for learning-based TSP solutions. Within this framework, heatmaps encode the likelihood of edges forming part of the optimal tour, and MCTS refines this probabilistic guidance to discover optimal solutions. Contemporary approaches have predominantly emphasized the refinement of heatmap generation through sophisticated learning models, inadvertently sidelining the critical role of MCTS. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals two pivotal insights: 1) The configuration of MCTS strategies profoundly influences the solution quality, demanding meticulous tuning to leverage their full potential; 2) Our findings demonstrate that a rudimentary and parameter-free heatmap, derived from the intrinsic k-nearest nature of TSP, can rival or even surpass the performance of complicated heatmaps, with strong generalizability across various scales. Empirical evaluations across various TSP scales underscore the efficacy of our approach, achieving competitive results. These observations challenge the prevailing focus on heatmap sophistication, advocating a reevaluation of the paradigm to harness both components synergistically. Our code is available at: https://github.com/LOGO-CUHKSZ/rethink_mcts_tsp.

We propose SC-MCTS*: a novel Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) reasoning algorithm for Large Language Models (LLMs), significantly improves both reasoning accuracy and speed. Our motivation comes from: 1. Previous MCTS LLM reasoning works often overlooked its biggest drawback--slower speed compared to CoT; 2. Previous research mainly used MCTS as a tool for LLM reasoning on various tasks with limited quantitative analysis or ablation studies of its components from reasoning interpretability perspective. 3. The reward model is the most crucial component in MCTS, however previous work has rarely conducted in-depth study or improvement of MCTS's reward models. Thus, we conducted extensive ablation studies and quantitative analysis on components of MCTS, revealing the impact of each component on the MCTS reasoning performance of LLMs. Building on this, (i) we designed a highly interpretable reward model based on the principle of contrastive decoding and (ii) achieved an average speed improvement of 51.9% per node using speculative decoding. Additionally, (iii) we improved UCT node selection strategy and backpropagation used in previous works, resulting in significant performance improvement. We outperformed o1-mini by an average of 17.4% on the Blocksworld multi-step reasoning dataset using Llama-3.1-70B with SC-MCTS*. Our code is available at https://github.com/zitian-gao/SC-MCTS.

Quantum algorithms based on variational approaches are one of the most promising methods to construct quantum solutions and have found a myriad of applications in the last few years. Despite the adaptability and simplicity, their scalability and the selection of suitable ans\"atzs remain key challenges. In this work, we report an algorithmic framework based on nested Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) coupled with the combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) model for the automated design of quantum circuits. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrated our algorithm applied to various kinds of problems, including the ground energy problem in quantum chemistry, quantum optimisation on a graph, solving systems of linear equations, and finding encoding circuit for quantum error detection codes. Compared to the existing approaches, the results indicate that our circuit design algorithm can explore larger search spaces and optimise quantum circuits for larger systems, showing both versatility and scalability.

Autonomous agents have demonstrated significant potential in automating complex multistep decision-making tasks. However, even state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs), such as GPT-4o, still fall short of human-level performance, particularly in intricate web environments and long-horizon planning tasks. To address these limitations, we introduce Reflective Monte Carlo Tree Search (R-MCTS), a novel test-time algorithm designed to enhance the ability of AI agents, e.g., powered by GPT-4o, to explore decision space on the fly. R-MCTS extends traditional MCTS by 1) incorporating contrastive reflection, allowing agents to learn from past interactions and dynamically improve their search efficiency; and 2) using multi-agent debate to provide reliable state evaluation. Moreover, we improve the agent's performance by fine-tuning GPT-4o through self-learning, using R-MCTS generated tree traversals without any human-provided labels. On the challenging VisualWebArena benchmark, our GPT-4o-based R-MCTS agent achieves a 6% to 30% relative improvement across various tasks compared to the previous state-of-the-art. Additionally, we show that the knowledge gained from test-time search can be effectively transferred back to GPT-4o via fine-tuning. The fine-tuned GPT-4o matches 97% of R-MCTS's performance while reducing compute usage by a factor of four at test time. Furthermore, qualitative results reveal that the fine-tuned GPT-4o model demonstrates the ability to explore the environment, evaluate a state, and backtrack to viable ones when it detects that the current state cannot lead to success. Moreover, our work demonstrates the compute scaling properties in both training - data collection with R-MCTS - and testing time. These results suggest a promising research direction to enhance VLMs' reasoning and planning capabilities for agentic applications via test-time search and self-learning.

Large Language Models (LLM) are increasingly being explored for problem-solving tasks. However, their strategic planning capability is often viewed with skepticism. Recent studies have incorporated the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm to augment the planning capacity of LLM. Despite its potential, MCTS relies on extensive sampling simulations to approximate the true reward distribution, which leads to two primary issues. Firstly, MCTS is effective for tasks like the Game of Go, where simulation results can yield objective rewards (e.g., 1 for a win and 0 for a loss). However, for tasks such as question answering, the result of a simulation is the answer to the question, which cannot yield an objective reward without the ground truth. Secondly, obtaining statistically significant reward estimations typically requires a sample size exceeding 30 simulations, resulting in excessive token usage and time consumption. To address these challenges, we present the Multi-Agent System with Tactical Execution and Reasoning using LLM Specialized MCTS (MASTER), a novel framework that coordinates agent recruitment and communication through LLM specialized MCTS. This system autonomously adjusts the number of agents based on task complexity and ensures focused communication among them. Comprehensive experiments across various tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework. It achieves 76% accuracy on HotpotQA and 80% on WebShop, setting new state-of-the-art performance on these datasets.

Recent research suggests that tree search algorithms (e.g. Monte Carlo Tree Search) can dramatically boost LLM performance on complex mathematical reasoning tasks. However, they often require more than 10 times the computational resources of greedy decoding due to wasteful search strategies, making them difficult to be deployed in practical applications. This study introduces a novel guided tree search algorithm with dynamic node selection and node-level exploration budget (maximum number of children) calculation to tackle this issue. By considering the search progress towards the final answer (history) and the guidance from a value network (future) trained without any step-wise annotations, our algorithm iteratively selects the most promising tree node before expanding it within the boundaries of the allocated computational budget. Experiments conducted on the GSM8K and TabMWP datasets demonstrate that our approach not only offers competitive performance but also enjoys significantly lower computational costs compared to baseline methods.

LLM-based autonomous agents often fail to execute complex web tasks that require dynamic interaction due to the inherent uncertainty and complexity of these environments. Existing LLM-based web agents typically rely on rigid, expert-designed policies specific to certain states and actions, which lack the flexibility and generalizability needed to adapt to unseen tasks. In contrast, humans excel by exploring unknowns, continuously adapting strategies, and resolving ambiguities through exploration. To emulate human-like adaptability, web agents need strategic exploration and complex decision-making. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is well-suited for this, but classical MCTS struggles with vast action spaces, unpredictable state transitions, and incomplete information in web tasks. In light of this, we develop WebPilot, a multi-agent system with a dual optimization strategy that improves MCTS to better handle complex web environments. Specifically, the Global Optimization phase involves generating a high-level plan by breaking down tasks into manageable subtasks and continuously refining this plan, thereby focusing the search process and mitigating the challenges posed by vast action spaces in classical MCTS. Subsequently, the Local Optimization phase executes each subtask using a tailored MCTS designed for complex environments, effectively addressing uncertainties and managing incomplete information. Experimental results on WebArena and MiniWoB++ demonstrate the effectiveness of WebPilot. Notably, on WebArena, WebPilot achieves SOTA performance with GPT-4, achieving a 93% relative increase in success rate over the concurrent tree search-based method. WebPilot marks a significant advancement in general autonomous agent capabilities, paving the way for more advanced and reliable decision-making in practical environments.

The LLM-as-a-Judge paradigm shows promise for evaluating generative content but lacks reliability in reasoning-intensive scenarios, such as programming. Inspired by recent advances in reasoning models and shifts in scaling laws, we pioneer bringing test-time computation into LLM-as-a-Judge, proposing MCTS-Judge, a resource-efficient, System-2 thinking framework for code correctness evaluation. MCTS-Judge leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to decompose problems into simpler, multi-perspective evaluations. Through a node-selection strategy that combines self-assessment based on historical actions in the current trajectory and the Upper Confidence Bound for Trees based on prior rollouts, MCTS-Judge balances global optimization and refinement of the current trajectory. We further designed a high-precision, unit-test-level reward mechanism to encourage the Large Language Model (LLM) to perform line-by-line analysis. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks and five LLMs demonstrate the effectiveness of MCTS-Judge, which improves the base model's accuracy from 41% to 80%, surpassing the o1-series models with 3x fewer tokens. Further evaluations validate the superiority of its reasoning trajectory in logic, analytics, thoroughness, and overall quality, while revealing the test-time scaling law of the LLM-as-a-Judge paradigm.

Reasoning remains a challenging task for large language models (LLMs), especially within the logically constrained environment of automated theorem proving (ATP), due to sparse rewards and the vast scale of proofs. These challenges are amplified in benchmarks like PutnamBench, which contains university-level problems requiring complex, multi-step reasoning. To address this, we introduce self-generated goal-conditioned MDPs (sG-MDPs), a new framework in which agents generate and pursue their subgoals based on the evolving proof state. Given this more structured generation of goals, the resulting problem becomes more amenable to search. We then apply Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-like algorithms to solve the sG-MDP, instantiating our approach in Bourbaki (7B), a modular system that can ensemble multiple 7B LLMs for subgoal generation and tactic synthesis. On PutnamBench, Bourbaki (7B) solves 26 problems, achieving new state-of-the-art results with models at this scale.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

The Multi-Agent Pathfinding (MAPF) problem involves finding a set of conflict-free paths for a group of agents confined to a graph. In typical MAPF scenarios, the graph and the agents' starting and ending vertices are known beforehand, allowing the use of centralized planning algorithms. However, in this study, we focus on the decentralized MAPF setting, where the agents may observe the other agents only locally and are restricted in communications with each other. Specifically, we investigate the lifelong variant of MAPF, where new goals are continually assigned to the agents upon completion of previous ones. Drawing inspiration from the successful AlphaZero approach, we propose a decentralized multi-agent Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method for MAPF tasks. Our approach utilizes the agent's observations to recreate the intrinsic Markov decision process, which is then used for planning with a tailored for multi-agent tasks version of neural MCTS. The experimental results show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art learnable MAPF solvers. The source code is available at https://github.com/AIRI-Institute/mats-lp.

LLM agents enhanced by tree search algorithms have yielded notable performances in code generation. However, current search algorithms in this domain suffer from low search quality due to several reasons: 1) Ineffective design of the search space for the high-reasoning demands of code generation tasks, 2) Inadequate integration of code feedback with the search algorithm, and 3) Poor handling of negative feedback during the search, leading to reduced search efficiency and quality. To address these challenges, we propose to search for the reasoning process of the code and use the detailed feedback of code execution to refine erroneous thoughts during the search. In this paper, we introduce RethinkMCTS, which employs the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm to conduct thought-level searches before generating code, thereby exploring a wider range of strategies. More importantly, we construct verbal feedback from fine-grained code execution feedback to refine erroneous thoughts during the search. This ensures that the search progresses along the correct reasoning paths, thus improving the overall search quality of the tree by leveraging execution feedback. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that RethinkMCTS outperforms previous search-based and feedback-based code generation baselines. On the HumanEval dataset, it improves the pass@1 of GPT-3.5-turbo from 70.12 to 89.02 and GPT-4o-mini from 87.20 to 94.51. It effectively conducts more thorough exploration through thought-level searches and enhances the search quality of the entire tree by incorporating rethink operation.

We introduce an approach aimed at enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) through an iterative preference learning process inspired by the successful strategy employed by AlphaZero. Our work leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to iteratively collect preference data, utilizing its look-ahead ability to break down instance-level rewards into more granular step-level signals. To enhance consistency in intermediate steps, we combine outcome validation and stepwise self-evaluation, continually updating the quality assessment of newly generated data. The proposed algorithm employs Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to update the LLM policy using this newly generated step-level preference data. Theoretical analysis reveals the importance of using on-policy sampled data for successful self-improving. Extensive evaluations on various arithmetic and commonsense reasoning tasks demonstrate remarkable performance improvements over existing models. For instance, our approach outperforms the Mistral-7B Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) baseline on GSM8K, MATH, and ARC-C, with substantial increases in accuracy to 81.8% (+5.9%), 34.7% (+5.8%), and 76.4% (+15.8%), respectively. Additionally, our research delves into the training and inference compute tradeoff, providing insights into how our method effectively maximizes performance gains. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiXie/MCTS-DPO.

In this paper, we present an effective method to enhance visual reasoning with significantly fewer training samples, relying purely on self-improvement with no knowledge distillation. Our key insight is that the difficulty of training data during reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) is critical. Appropriately challenging samples can substantially boost reasoning capabilities even when the dataset is small. Despite being intuitive, the main challenge remains in accurately quantifying sample difficulty to enable effective data filtering. To this end, we propose a novel way of repurposing Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to achieve that. Starting from our curated 70k open-source training samples, we introduce an MCTS-based selection method that quantifies sample difficulty based on the number of iterations required by the VLMs to solve each problem. This explicit step-by-step reasoning in MCTS enforces the model to think longer and better identifies samples that are genuinely challenging. We filter and retain 11k samples to perform RFT on Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct, resulting in our final model, ThinkLite-VL. Evaluation results on eight benchmarks show that ThinkLite-VL improves the average performance of Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct by 7%, using only 11k training samples with no knowledge distillation. This significantly outperforms all existing 7B-level reasoning VLMs, and our fairly comparable baselines that use classic selection methods such as accuracy-based filtering. Notably, on MathVista, ThinkLite-VL-7B achieves the SoTA accuracy of 75.1, surpassing Qwen2.5-VL-72B, GPT-4o, and O1. Our code, data, and model are available at https://github.com/si0wang/ThinkLite-VL.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have spurred growing interest in automatic theorem proving using Lean4, where effective tree search methods are crucial for navigating proof search spaces. While the existing approaches primarily rely on value functions and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), the potential of simpler methods like Best-First Search (BFS) remains underexplored. This paper investigates whether BFS can achieve competitive performance in large-scale theorem proving tasks. We present BFS-Prover, a scalable expert iteration framework, featuring three key innovations. First, we implement strategic data filtering at each expert iteration round, excluding problems solvable via beam search node expansion to focus on harder cases. Second, we improve the sample efficiency of BFS through Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) applied to state-tactic pairs automatically annotated with compiler error feedback, refining the LLM's policy to prioritize productive expansions. Third, we employ length normalization in BFS to encourage exploration of deeper proof paths. BFS-Prover achieves a score of 71.31 on the MiniF2F test set and therefore challenges the perceived necessity of complex tree search methods, demonstrating that BFS can achieve competitive performance when properly scaled.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) based methods provide promising approaches for generating synthetic data to enhance the self-training of Large Language Model (LLM) based multi-agent systems (MAS). These methods leverage Q-values to estimate individual agent contributions. However, relying solely on Q-values to identify informative data may misalign with the data synthesis objective, as the focus should be on selecting data that best enhances model training. To address this discrepancy, we propose Data Influence-oriented Tree Search (DITS), a novel framework that incorporates influence scores to guide both tree search and data selection. By leveraging influence scores, we effectively identify the most impactful data for system improvement, thereby enhancing model performance. Furthermore, we derive influence score estimation methods tailored for non-differentiable metrics, significantly reducing computational overhead by utilizing inference computations. Extensive experiments on eight multi-agent datasets demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed methods. Notably, our findings reveal that allocating more inference resources to estimate influence scores, rather than Q-values, during data synthesis can more effectively and efficiently enhance model training.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated promising capabilities in chemistry tasks while still facing challenges due to outdated pretraining knowledge and the difficulty of incorporating specialized chemical expertise. To address these issues, we propose an LLM-based agent that synergistically integrates 137 external chemical tools created ranging from basic information retrieval to complex reaction predictions, and a dataset curation pipeline to generate the dataset ChemToolBench that facilitates both effective tool selection and precise parameter filling during fine-tuning and evaluation. We introduce a Hierarchical Evolutionary Monte Carlo Tree Search (HE-MCTS) framework, enabling independent optimization of tool planning and execution. By leveraging self-generated data, our approach supports step-level fine-tuning (FT) of the policy model and training task-adaptive PRM and ORM that surpass GPT-4o. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that our approach significantly improves performance in Chemistry QA and discovery tasks, offering a robust solution to integrate specialized tools with LLMs for advanced chemical applications. All datasets and code are available at https://github.com/AI4Chem/ChemistryAgent .

Large Reasoning Models(LRMs) such as OpenAI o1 and DeepSeek-R1 have shown remarkable reasoning capabilities by scaling test-time compute and generating long Chain-of-Thought(CoT). Distillation--post-training on LRMs-generated data--is a straightforward yet effective method to enhance the reasoning abilities of smaller models, but faces a critical bottleneck: we found that distilled long CoT data poses learning difficulty for small models and leads to the inheritance of biases (i.e. over-thinking) when using Supervised Fine-tuning(SFT) and Reinforcement Learning(RL) methods. To alleviate this bottleneck, we propose constructing tree-based CoT data from scratch via Monte Carlo Tree Search(MCTS). We then exploit a set of CoT-aware approaches, including Thoughts Length Balance, Fine-grained DPO, and Joint Post-training Objective, to enhance SFT and RL on the construted data.

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has gained significant popularity as an effective tool for designing high performance deep neural networks (DNNs). NAS can be performed via policy gradient, evolutionary algorithms, differentiable architecture search or tree-search methods. While significant progress has been made for both policy gradient and differentiable architecture search, tree-search methods have so far failed to achieve comparable accuracy or search efficiency. In this paper, we formulate NAS as a Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandit (CMAB) problem (CMAB-NAS). This allows the decomposition of a large search space into smaller blocks where tree-search methods can be applied more effectively and efficiently. We further leverage a tree-based method called Nested Monte-Carlo Search to tackle the CMAB-NAS problem. On CIFAR-10, our approach discovers a cell structure that achieves a low error rate that is comparable to the state-of-the-art, using only 0.58 GPU days, which is 20 times faster than current tree-search methods. Moreover, the discovered structure transfers well to large-scale datasets such as ImageNet.

This paper presents an advanced mathematical problem-solving framework, LLaMA-Berry, for enhancing the mathematical reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs). The framework combines Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with iterative Self-Refine to optimize the reasoning path and utilizes a pairwise reward model to evaluate different paths globally. By leveraging the self-critic and rewriting capabilities of LLMs, Self-Refine applied to MCTS (SR-MCTS) overcomes the inefficiencies and limitations of conventional step-wise and greedy search algorithms by fostering a more efficient exploration of solution spaces. Pairwise Preference Reward Model~(PPRM), inspired by Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), is then used to model pairwise preferences between solutions, utilizing an Enhanced Borda Count (EBC) method to synthesize these preferences into a global ranking score to find better answers. This approach addresses the challenges of scoring variability and non-independent distributions in mathematical reasoning tasks. The framework has been tested on general and advanced benchmarks, showing superior performance in terms of search efficiency and problem-solving capability compared to existing methods like ToT and rStar, particularly in complex Olympiad-level benchmarks, including GPQA, AIME24 and AMC23.

While large language models perform well on a range of complex tasks (e.g., text generation, question answering, summarization), robust multi-step planning and reasoning remains a considerable challenge for them. In this paper we show that search-based planning can significantly improve LLMs' playing strength across several board games (Chess, Fischer Random / Chess960, Connect Four, and Hex). We introduce, compare and contrast two major approaches: In external search, the model guides Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) rollouts and evaluations without calls to an external engine, and in internal search, the model directly generates in-context a linearized tree of potential futures and a resulting final choice. Both build on a language model pre-trained on relevant domain knowledge, capturing the transition and value functions across these games. We find that our pre-training method minimizes hallucinations, as our model is highly accurate regarding state prediction and legal moves. Additionally, both internal and external search indeed improve win-rates against state-of-the-art bots, even reaching Grandmaster-level performance in chess while operating on a similar move count search budget per decision as human Grandmasters. The way we combine search with domain knowledge is not specific to board games, suggesting direct extensions into more general language model inference and training techniques.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

The Text-to-SQL(Text2SQL) task aims to convert natural language queries into executable SQL queries. Thanks to the application of large language models (LLMs), significant progress has been made in this field. However, challenges such as model scalability, limited generation space, and coherence issues in SQL generation still persist. To address these issues, we propose SQL-o1, a Self-Reward-based heuristic search method designed to enhance the reasoning ability of LLMs in SQL query generation. SQL-o1 combines Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) for heuristic process-level search and constructs a Schema-Aware dataset to help the model better understand database schemas. Extensive experiments on the Bird and Spider datasets demonstrate that SQL-o1 improves execution accuracy by 10.8\% on the complex Bird dataset compared to the latest baseline methods, even outperforming GPT-4-based approaches. Additionally, SQL-o1 excels in few-shot learning scenarios and shows strong cross-model transferability. Our code is publicly available at:https://github.com/ShuaiLyu0110/SQL-o1.

Large language model (LLM) agents have demonstrated strong capabilities across diverse domains. However, designing high-performing agentic systems remains challenging. Existing agent search methods suffer from three major limitations: (1) an emphasis on optimizing agentic workflows while under-utilizing proven human-designed components such as memory, planning, and tool use; (2) high evaluation costs, as each newly generated agent must be fully evaluated on benchmarks; and (3) inefficient search in large search space. In this work, we introduce a comprehensive framework to address these challenges. First, We propose a hierarchical search space that jointly models agentic workflow and composable functional components, enabling richer agentic system designs. Building on this structured design space, we introduce a predictive value model that estimates agent performance given agentic system and task description, allowing for efficient, low-cost evaluation during the search process. Finally, we present a hierarchical Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) strategy informed by uncertainty to guide the search. Experiments on seven benchmarks, covering embodied, math, web, tool, and game, show that our method achieves an average performance gain of 8.34\% over state-of-the-art baselines and exhibits faster search progress with steeper improvement trajectories. Code repo is available at https://github.com/Ericccc02/AgentSwift.

Mathematical reasoning has proven to be a critical yet challenging task for large language models (LLMs), as they often struggle with complex multi-step problems. To address these limitations, we introduce the Monte Carlo Nash Equilibrium Self-Refine Tree (MC-NEST) algorithm, an enhancement of the Monte Carlo Tree Self-Refine (MCTSr) approach. By integrating Nash Equilibrium strategies with LLM-based self-refinement and self-evaluation processes, MC-NEST aims to improve decision-making for complex mathematical reasoning tasks. This method ensures balanced exploration and exploitation of potential solutions, leveraging Upper Confidence Bound (UCT) scores and various selection policies. Through iterative critique and refinement, MC-NEST enhances the reasoning capabilities of LLMs, particularly for problems requiring strategic decision-making. Comparative analysis reveals that GPT-4o, equipped with MC-NEST using an Importance Sampling Policy, achieved superior accuracy in domains such as Number Theory and Geometry. These results suggest that both LLMs GPT-4o and Phi-3-mini can benefit from MC-NEST, with iterative self-refinement proving especially effective in expanding the reasoning capacity and problem-solving performance of LLMs. We evaluate the effectiveness of MC-NEST on challenging Olympiad-level benchmarks, demonstrating its potential to significantly boost complex mathematical reasoning performance in LLMs.

Medical language models (MLMs) have become pivotal in advancing medical natural language processing. However, prior models that rely on pre-training or supervised fine-tuning often exhibit low data efficiency and limited practicality in real-world clinical applications. While OpenAIs O1 highlights test-time scaling in mathematics, attempts to replicate this approach in medicine typically distill responses from GPT-series models to open-source models, focusing primarily on multiple-choice tasks. This strategy, though straightforward, neglects critical concerns like data privacy and realistic deployment in clinical settings. In this work, we present a deployable, small-scale medical language model, \mone, designed for long-chain reasoning in clinical tasks using a self-evolution paradigm. Starting with a seed dataset of around 8,000 instances spanning five domains and 16 datasets, we prompt a base policy model to perform Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to construct verifiable reasoning chains. Each reasoning step is assigned an evolution rollout value, allowing verified trajectories to train the policy model and the reward model. During inference, the policy model generates multiple responses, and the reward model selects the one with the highest reward score. Experiments on eleven evaluation datasets demonstrate that \mone outperforms prior open-source models by 2 points, with the addition of the reward model further boosting performance (sim13 points), surpassing GPT-4o-mini. Code and data are available at https://github.com/pixas/MedSSS.

Recent advancements have introduced machine learning frameworks to enhance the Branch and Bound (B\&B) branching policies for solving Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). These methods, primarily relying on imitation learning of Strong Branching, have shown superior performance. However, collecting expert samples for imitation learning, particularly for Strong Branching, is a time-consuming endeavor. To address this challenge, we propose Contrastive Learning with Augmented MILPs for Branching (CAMBranch), a framework that generates Augmented MILPs (AMILPs) by applying variable shifting to limited expert data from their original MILPs. This approach enables the acquisition of a considerable number of labeled expert samples. CAMBranch leverages both MILPs and AMILPs for imitation learning and employs contrastive learning to enhance the model's ability to capture MILP features, thereby improving the quality of branching decisions. Experimental results demonstrate that CAMBranch, trained with only 10\% of the complete dataset, exhibits superior performance. Ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of our method.

Inference-time search algorithms such as Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) may seem unnecessary when generating natural language text based on state-of-the-art reinforcement learning such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to get extra mileage out of PPO by integrating MCTS on top. The key idea is not to throw out the value network, a byproduct of PPO training for evaluating partial output sequences, when decoding text out of the policy network. More concretely, we present a novel value-guided decoding algorithm called PPO-MCTS, which can integrate the value network from PPO to work closely with the policy network during inference-time generation. Compared to prior approaches based on MCTS for controlled text generation, the key strength of our approach is to reduce the fundamental mismatch of the scoring mechanisms of the partial outputs between training and test. Evaluation on four text generation tasks demonstrate that PPO-MCTS greatly improves the preferability of generated text compared to the standard practice of using only the PPO policy. Our results demonstrate the promise of search algorithms even on top of the aligned language models from PPO, and the under-explored benefit of the value network.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have substantially enhanced their mathematical reasoning abilities. However, these models still struggle with complex problems that require multiple reasoning steps, frequently leading to logical or numerical errors. While numerical mistakes can be largely addressed by integrating a code interpreter, identifying logical errors within intermediate steps is more challenging. Moreover, manually annotating these steps for training is not only expensive but also labor-intensive, requiring the expertise of professional annotators. In our study, we introduce an innovative approach that bypasses the need for process annotations (from human or GPTs) by utilizing the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) framework. This technique automatically generates both the process supervision and the step-level evaluation signals. Our method iteratively trains the policy and value models, leveraging the capabilities of a well-pretrained LLM to progressively enhance its mathematical reasoning skills. Furthermore, we propose an efficient inference strategy-step-level beam search, where the value model is crafted to assist the policy model (i.e., LLM) in navigating more effective reasoning paths, rather than solely relying on prior probabilities. The experimental results on both in-domain and out-of-domain datasets demonstrate that even without GPT-4 or human-annotated process supervision, our AlphaMath framework achieves comparable or superior results to previous state-of-the-art methods.

In deep learning, performance is strongly affected by the choice of architecture and hyperparameters. While there has been extensive work on automatic hyperparameter optimization for simple spaces, complex spaces such as the space of deep architectures remain largely unexplored. As a result, the choice of architecture is done manually by the human expert through a slow trial and error process guided mainly by intuition. In this paper we describe a framework for automatically designing and training deep models. We propose an extensible and modular language that allows the human expert to compactly represent complex search spaces over architectures and their hyperparameters. The resulting search spaces are tree-structured and therefore easy to traverse. Models can be automatically compiled to computational graphs once values for all hyperparameters have been chosen. We can leverage the structure of the search space to introduce different model search algorithms, such as random search, Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS), and sequential model-based optimization (SMBO). We present experiments comparing the different algorithms on CIFAR-10 and show that MCTS and SMBO outperform random search. In addition, these experiments show that our framework can be used effectively for model discovery, as it is possible to describe expressive search spaces and discover competitive models without much effort from the human expert. Code for our framework and experiments has been made publicly available.

In this work we consider Code World Models, world models generated by a Large Language Model (LLM) in the form of Python code for model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL). Calling code instead of LLMs for planning has potential to be more precise, reliable, interpretable, and extremely efficient. However, writing appropriate Code World Models requires the ability to understand complex instructions, to generate exact code with non-trivial logic and to self-debug a long program with feedback from unit tests and environment trajectories. To address these challenges, we propose Generate, Improve and Fix with Monte Carlo Tree Search (GIF-MCTS), a new code generation strategy for LLMs. To test our approach in an offline RL setting, we introduce the Code World Models Benchmark (CWMB), a suite of program synthesis and planning tasks comprised of 18 diverse RL environments paired with corresponding textual descriptions and curated trajectories. GIF-MCTS surpasses all baselines on the CWMB and two other benchmarks, and we show that the Code World Models synthesized with it can be successfully used for planning, resulting in model-based RL agents with greatly improved sample efficiency and inference speed.

This paper presents a new approach that integrates deep learning with computational chess, using both the Mixture of Experts (MoE) method and Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Our methodology employs a suite of specialized models, each designed to respond to specific changes in the game's input data. This results in a framework with sparsely activated models, which provides significant computational benefits. Our framework combines the MoE method with MCTS, in order to align it with the strategic phases of chess, thus departing from the conventional ``one-for-all'' model. Instead, we utilize distinct game phase definitions to effectively distribute computational tasks across multiple expert neural networks. Our empirical research shows a substantial improvement in playing strength, surpassing the traditional single-model framework. This validates the efficacy of our integrated approach and highlights the potential of incorporating expert knowledge and strategic principles into neural network design. The fusion of MoE and MCTS offers a promising avenue for advancing machine learning architectures.

In the post-AlphaGo era, there has been a renewed interest in search techniques such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), particularly in their application to Large Language Models (LLMs). This renewed attention is driven by the recognition that current next-token prediction models often lack the ability for long-term planning. Is it possible to instill search-like abilities within the models to enhance their planning abilities without relying on explicit search? We propose DiffuSearch , a model that does implicit search by looking into the future world via discrete diffusion modeling. We instantiate DiffuSearch on a classical board game, Chess, where explicit search is known to be essential. Through extensive controlled experiments, we show DiffuSearch outperforms both the searchless and explicit search-enhanced policies. Specifically, DiffuSearch outperforms the one-step policy by 19.2% and the MCTS-enhanced policy by 14% on action accuracy. Furthermore, DiffuSearch demonstrates a notable 30% enhancement in puzzle-solving abilities compared to explicit search-based policies, along with a significant 540 Elo increase in game-playing strength assessment. These results indicate that implicit search via discrete diffusion is a viable alternative to explicit search over a one-step policy. All codes are publicly available at https://github.com/HKUNLP/DiffuSearch{https://github.com/HKUNLP/DiffuSearch}.

Scaling laws for inference compute in multi-agent systems remain under-explored compared to single-agent scenarios. This work aims to bridge this gap by investigating the problem of data synthesis through multi-agent sampling, where synthetic responses are generated by sampling from multiple distinct language models. Effective model coordination is crucial for successful multi-agent collaboration. Unlike previous approaches that rely on fixed workflows, we treat model coordination as a multi-step decision-making process, optimizing generation structures dynamically for each input question. We introduce Tree Search-based Orchestrated Agents~(TOA), where the workflow evolves iteratively during the sequential sampling process. To achieve this, we leverage Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), integrating a reward model to provide real-time feedback and accelerate exploration. Our experiments on alignment, machine translation, and mathematical reasoning demonstrate that multi-agent sampling significantly outperforms single-agent sampling as inference compute scales. TOA is the most compute-efficient approach, achieving SOTA performance on WMT and a 71.8\% LC win rate on AlpacaEval. Moreover, fine-tuning with our synthesized alignment data surpasses strong preference learning methods on challenging benchmarks such as Arena-Hard and AlpacaEval.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) using an implicit reward model has proven to be an effective alternative to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for fine-tuning preference aligned large language models (LLMs). However, the overall preference annotations of responses do not fully capture the fine-grained quality of model outputs in complex multi-step reasoning tasks, such as mathematical reasoning. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel algorithm called Step-level Value Preference Optimization (SVPO). Our approach employs Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to automatically annotate step-level preferences for multi-step reasoning. Furthermore, from the perspective of learning-to-rank, we train an explicit value model to replicate the behavior of the implicit reward model, complementing standard preference optimization. This value model enables the LLM to generate higher reward responses with minimal cost during inference. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both in-domain and out-of-domain mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/MARIO-Math-Reasoning/Super_MARIO.

The technical report introduces O1-CODER, an attempt to replicate OpenAI's o1 model with a focus on coding tasks. It integrates reinforcement learning (RL) and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to enhance the model's System-2 thinking capabilities. The framework includes training a Test Case Generator (TCG) for standardized code testing, using MCTS to generate code data with reasoning processes, and iteratively fine-tuning the policy model to initially produce pseudocode, followed by the generation of the full code. The report also addresses the opportunities and challenges in deploying o1-like models in real-world applications, suggesting transitioning to the System-2 paradigm and highlighting the imperative for environment state updates. Updated model progress and experimental results will be reported in subsequent versions. All source code, curated datasets, as well as the derived models will be disclosed at https://github.com/ADaM-BJTU/O1-CODER .

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on a range of decision-making tasks, they rely on simple acting processes and fall short of broad deployment as autonomous agents. We introduce LATS (Language Agent Tree Search), a general framework that synergizes the capabilities of LLMs in planning, acting, and reasoning. Drawing inspiration from Monte Carlo tree search in model-based reinforcement learning, LATS employs LLMs as agents, value functions, and optimizers, repurposing their latent strengths for enhanced decision-making. What is crucial in this method is the use of an environment for external feedback, which offers a more deliberate and adaptive problem-solving mechanism that moves beyond the limitations of existing techniques. Our experimental evaluation across diverse domains, such as programming, HotPotQA, and WebShop, illustrates the applicability of LATS for both reasoning and acting. In particular, LATS achieves 94.4\% for programming on HumanEval with GPT-4 and an average score of 75.9 for web browsing on WebShop with GPT-3.5, demonstrating the effectiveness and generality of our method.

The study of hardest and easiest fitness landscapes is an active area of research. Recently, Kaufmann, Larcher, Lengler and Zou conjectured that for the self-adjusting (1,lambda)-EA, Adversarial Dynamic BinVal (ADBV) is the hardest dynamic monotone function to optimize. We introduce the function Switching Dynamic BinVal (SDBV) which coincides with ADBV whenever the number of remaining zeros in the search point is strictly less than n/2, where n denotes the dimension of the search space. We show, using a combinatorial argument, that for the (1+1)-EA with any mutation rate p in [0,1], SDBV is drift-minimizing among the class of dynamic monotone functions. Our construction provides the first explicit example of an instance of the partially-ordered evolutionary algorithm (PO-EA) model with parameterized pessimism introduced by Colin, Doerr and F\'erey, building on work of Jansen. We further show that the (1+1)-EA optimizes SDBV in Theta(n^{3/2}) generations. Our simulations demonstrate matching runtimes for both static and self-adjusting (1,lambda) and (1+lambda)-EA. We further show, using an example of fixed dimension, that drift-minimization does not equal maximal runtime.

Post-training, particularly reinforcement learning (RL) using self-play-generated data, has become a new learning paradigm for large language models (LLMs). However, scaling RL to develop a general reasoner remains a research challenge, as existing methods focus on task-specific reasoning without adequately addressing generalization across a broader range of tasks. Moreover, unlike traditional RL with limited action space, LLMs operate in an infinite space, making it crucial to search for valuable and diverse strategies to solve problems effectively. To address this, we propose searching within the action space on high-level abstract plans to enhance model generalization and introduce Critical Plan Step Learning (CPL), comprising: 1) searching on plan, using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to explore diverse plan steps in multi-step reasoning tasks, and 2) learning critical plan steps through Step-level Advantage Preference Optimization (Step-APO), which integrates advantage estimates for step preference obtained via MCTS into Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). This combination helps the model effectively learn critical plan steps, enhancing both reasoning capabilities and generalization. Experimental results demonstrate that our method, trained exclusively on GSM8K and MATH, not only significantly improves performance on GSM8K (+10.5%) and MATH (+6.5%), but also enhances out-of-domain reasoning benchmarks, such as HumanEval (+12.2%), GPQA (+8.6%), ARC-C (+4.0%), MMLU-STEM (+2.2%), and BBH (+1.8%).

We consider learning to play multiplayer imperfect-information games with simultaneous moves and large state-action spaces. Previous attempts to tackle such challenging games have largely focused on model-free learning methods, often requiring hundreds of years of experience to produce competitive agents. Our approach is based on model-based planning. We tackle the problem of partial observability by first building an (oracle) planner that has access to the full state of the environment and then distilling the knowledge of the oracle to a (follower) agent which is trained to play the imperfect-information game by imitating the oracle's choices. We experimentally show that planning with naive Monte Carlo tree search does not perform very well in large combinatorial action spaces. We therefore propose planning with a fixed-depth tree search and decoupled Thompson sampling for action selection. We show that the planner is able to discover efficient playing strategies in the games of Clash Royale and Pommerman and the follower policy successfully learns to implement them by training on a few hundred battles.

We present two different methods for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. The methods focus on the online behaviour of the backtracking solver, as well as the structure of the problem. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including coping with nonchronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our first method adapt an existing algorithm for estimating the size of a search tree to deal with these challenges. We then suggest a second method that uses a linear model trained on data gathered online at the start of search. We compare the effectiveness of these two methods using random and structured problems. We also demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We conclude by showing that the cost of solving a set of problems can be reduced by selecting a solver from a portfolio based on such cost estimations.

Large-scale task planning is a major challenge. Recent work exploits large language models (LLMs) directly as a policy and shows surprisingly interesting results. This paper shows that LLMs provide a commonsense model of the world in addition to a policy that acts on it. The world model and the policy can be combined in a search algorithm, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), to scale up task planning. In our new LLM-MCTS algorithm, the LLM-induced world model provides a commonsense prior belief for MCTS to achieve effective reasoning; the LLM-induced policy acts as a heuristic to guide the search, vastly improving search efficiency. Experiments show that LLM-MCTS outperforms both MCTS alone and policies induced by LLMs (GPT2 and GPT3.5) by a wide margin, for complex, novel tasks. Further experiments and analyses on multiple tasks -- multiplication, multi-hop travel planning, object rearrangement -- suggest minimum description length (MDL) as a general guiding principle: if the description length of the world model is substantially smaller than that of the policy, using LLM as a world model for model-based planning is likely better than using LLM solely as a policy.

In nature, the behaviors of many complex systems can be described by parsimonious math equations. Automatically distilling these equations from limited data is cast as a symbolic regression process which hitherto remains a grand challenge. Keen efforts in recent years have been placed on tackling this issue and demonstrated success in symbolic regression. However, there still exist bottlenecks that current methods struggle to break when the discrete search space tends toward infinity and especially when the underlying math formula is intricate. To this end, we propose a novel Reinforcement Symbolic Regression Machine (RSRM) that masters the capability of uncovering complex math equations from only scarce data. The RSRM model is composed of three key modules: (1) a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) agent that explores optimal math expression trees consisting of pre-defined math operators and variables, (2) a Double Q-learning block that helps reduce the feasible search space of MCTS via properly understanding the distribution of reward, and (3) a modulated sub-tree discovery block that heuristically learns and defines new math operators to improve representation ability of math expression trees. Biding of these modules yields the state-of-the-art performance of RSRM in symbolic regression as demonstrated by multiple sets of benchmark examples. The RSRM model shows clear superiority over several representative baseline models.

Peptide therapeutics, a major class of medicines, have achieved remarkable success across diseases such as diabetes and cancer, with landmark examples such as GLP-1 receptor agonists revolutionizing the treatment of type-2 diabetes and obesity. Despite their success, designing peptides that satisfy multiple conflicting objectives, such as target binding affinity, solubility, and membrane permeability, remains a major challenge. Classical drug development and structure-based design are ineffective for such tasks, as they fail to optimize global functional properties critical for therapeutic efficacy. Existing generative frameworks are largely limited to continuous spaces, unconditioned outputs, or single-objective guidance, making them unsuitable for discrete sequence optimization across multiple properties. To address this, we present PepTune, a multi-objective discrete diffusion model for the simultaneous generation and optimization of therapeutic peptide SMILES. Built on the Masked Discrete Language Model (MDLM) framework, PepTune ensures valid peptide structures with state-dependent masking schedules and penalty-based objectives. To guide the diffusion process, we propose a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-based strategy that balances exploration and exploitation to iteratively refine Pareto-optimal sequences. MCTS integrates classifier-based rewards with search-tree expansion, overcoming gradient estimation challenges and data sparsity inherent to discrete spaces. Using PepTune, we generate diverse, chemically-modified peptides optimized for multiple therapeutic properties, including target binding affinity, membrane permeability, solubility, hemolysis, and non-fouling characteristics on various disease-relevant targets. In total, our results demonstrate that MCTS-guided discrete diffusion is a powerful and modular approach for multi-objective sequence design in discrete state spaces.

Test-time compute scaling has emerged as a new axis along which to improve model accuracy, where additional computation is used at inference time to allow the model to think longer for more challenging problems. One promising approach for test-time compute scaling is search against a process reward model, where a model generates multiple potential candidates at each step of the search, and these partial trajectories are then scored by a separate reward model in order to guide the search process. The diversity of trajectories in the tree search process affects the accuracy of the search, since increasing diversity promotes more exploration. However, this diversity comes at a cost, as divergent trajectories have less KV sharing, which means they consume more memory and slow down the search process. Previous search methods either do not perform sufficient exploration, or else explore diverse trajectories but have high latency. We address this challenge by proposing Efficient Tree Search (ETS), which promotes KV sharing by pruning redundant trajectories while maintaining necessary diverse trajectories. ETS incorporates a linear programming cost model to promote KV cache sharing by penalizing the number of nodes retained, while incorporating a semantic coverage term into the cost model to ensure that we retain trajectories which are semantically different. We demonstrate how ETS can achieve 1.8times reduction in average KV cache size during the search process, leading to 1.4times increased throughput relative to prior state-of-the-art methods, with minimal accuracy degradation and without requiring any custom kernel implementation. Code is available at: https://github.com/SqueezeAILab/ETS.

Synthetic high-quality multi-step reasoning data can significantly enhance the performance of large language models on various tasks. However, most existing methods rely on rejection sampling, which generates trajectories independently and suffers from inefficiency and imbalanced sampling across problems of varying difficulty. In this work, we introduce FastMCTS, an innovative data synthesis strategy inspired by Monte Carlo Tree Search. FastMCTS provides a more efficient sampling method for multi-step reasoning data, offering step-level evaluation signals and promoting balanced sampling across problems of different difficulty levels. Experiments on both English and Chinese reasoning datasets demonstrate that FastMCTS generates over 30\% more correct reasoning paths compared to rejection sampling as the number of generated tokens scales up. Furthermore, under comparable synthetic data budgets, models trained on FastMCTS-generated data outperform those trained on rejection sampling data by 3.9\% across multiple benchmarks. As a lightweight sampling strategy, FastMCTS offers a practical and efficient alternative for synthesizing high-quality reasoning data. Our code will be released soon.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have sparked considerable interest in automated theorem proving and a prominent line of research integrates stepwise LLM-based provers into tree search. In this paper, we introduce a novel proof-state exploration approach for training data synthesis, designed to produce diverse tactics across a wide range of intermediate proof states, thereby facilitating effective one-shot fine-tuning of LLM as the policy model. We also propose an adaptive beam size strategy, which effectively takes advantage of our data synthesis method and achieves a trade-off between exploration and exploitation during tree search. Evaluations on the MiniF2F and ProofNet benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms strong baselines under the stringent Pass@1 metric, attaining an average pass rate of 60.74% on MiniF2F and 21.18% on ProofNet. These results underscore the impact of large-scale synthetic data in advancing automated theorem proving.

We present THOUGHTSCULPT, a general reasoning and search method for tasks with outputs that can be decomposed into components. THOUGHTSCULPT explores a search tree of potential solutions using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), building solutions one action at a time and evaluating according to any domain-specific heuristic, which in practice is often simply an LLM evaluator. Critically, our action space includes revision actions: THOUGHTSCULPT may choose to revise part of its previous output rather than continuing to build the rest of its output. Empirically, THOUGHTSCULPT outperforms state-of-the-art reasoning methods across three challenging tasks: Story Outline Improvement (up to +30% interestingness), Mini-Crosswords Solving (up to +16% word success rate), and Constrained Generation (up to +10% concept coverage).

We propose a novel approach to scaling LLM inference for code generation. We frame code generation as a black box optimization problem within the code space, and employ optimization-inspired techniques to enhance exploration. Specifically, we introduce Scattered Forest Search to enhance solution diversity while searching for solutions. Our theoretical analysis illustrates how these methods avoid local optima during optimization. Extensive experiments on HumanEval, MBPP, APPS, CodeContests, and Leetcode reveal significant performance improvements. For instance, our method achieves a pass@1 rate of 67.1% on HumanEval+ and 87.2% on HumanEval with GPT-3.5, marking improvements of 8.6% and 4.3% over the state-of-the-art, while also halving the iterations needed to find the correct solution. Furthermore, our method scales more efficiently than existing search techniques, including tree search, line search, and repeated sampling.

Complex multi-step reasoning tasks, such as solving mathematical problems or generating code, remain a significant hurdle for even the most advanced large language models (LLMs). Verifying LLM outputs with an Outcome Reward Model (ORM) is a standard inference-time technique aimed at enhancing the reasoning performance of LLMs. However, this still proves insufficient for reasoning tasks with a lengthy or multi-hop reasoning chain, where the intermediate outcomes are neither properly rewarded nor penalized. Process supervision addresses this limitation by assigning intermediate rewards during the reasoning process. To date, the methods used to collect process supervision data have relied on either human annotation or per-step Monte Carlo estimation, both prohibitively expensive to scale, thus hindering the broad application of this technique. In response to this challenge, we propose a novel divide-and-conquer style Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm named OmegaPRM for the efficient collection of high-quality process supervision data. This algorithm swiftly identifies the first error in the Chain of Thought (CoT) with binary search and balances the positive and negative examples, thereby ensuring both efficiency and quality. As a result, we are able to collect over 1.5 million process supervision annotations to train a Process Reward Model (PRM). Utilizing this fully automated process supervision alongside the weighted self-consistency algorithm, we have enhanced the instruction tuned Gemini Pro model's math reasoning performance, achieving a 69.4\% success rate on the MATH benchmark, a 36\% relative improvement from the 51\% base model performance. Additionally, the entire process operates without any human intervention, making our method both financially and computationally cost-effective compared to existing methods.

We propose Beam Tree Recursive Cell (BT-Cell) - a backpropagation-friendly framework to extend Recursive Neural Networks (RvNNs) with beam search for latent structure induction. We further extend this framework by proposing a relaxation of the hard top-k operators in beam search for better propagation of gradient signals. We evaluate our proposed models in different out-of-distribution splits in both synthetic and realistic data. Our experiments show that BTCell achieves near-perfect performance on several challenging structure-sensitive synthetic tasks like ListOps and logical inference while maintaining comparable performance in realistic data against other RvNN-based models. Additionally, we identify a previously unknown failure case for neural models in generalization to unseen number of arguments in ListOps. The code is available at: https://github.com/JRC1995/BeamTreeRecursiveCells.

Selecting the best code solution from multiple generated ones is an essential task in code generation, which can be achieved by using some reliable validators (e.g., developer-written test cases) for assistance. Since reliable test cases are not always available and can be expensive to build in practice, researchers propose to automatically generate test cases to assess code solutions. However, when both code solutions and test cases are plausible and not reliable, selecting the best solution becomes challenging. Although some heuristic strategies have been proposed to tackle this problem, they lack a strong theoretical guarantee and it is still an open question whether an optimal selection strategy exists. Our work contributes in two ways. First, we show that within a Bayesian framework, the optimal selection strategy can be defined based on the posterior probability of the observed passing states between solutions and tests. The problem of identifying the best solution is then framed as an integer programming problem. Second, we propose an efficient approach for approximating this optimal (yet uncomputable) strategy, where the approximation error is bounded by the correctness of prior knowledge. We then incorporate effective prior knowledge to tailor code generation tasks. Both theoretical and empirical studies confirm that existing heuristics are limited in selecting the best solutions with plausible test cases. Our proposed approximated optimal strategy B4 significantly surpasses existing heuristics in selecting code solutions generated by large language models (LLMs) with LLM-generated tests, achieving a relative performance improvement by up to 50% over the strongest heuristic and 246% over the random selection in the most challenging scenarios. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZJU-CTAG/B4.

Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is a fundamental tool for modeling combinatorial optimization problems. Recently, a growing body of research has used machine learning to accelerate MILP solving. Despite the increasing popularity of this approach, there is a lack of a common repository that provides distributions of similar MILP instances across different domains, at different hardness levels, with standardized test sets. In this paper, we introduce Distributional MIPLIB, a multi-domain library of problem distributions for advancing ML-guided MILP methods. We curate MILP distributions from existing work in this area as well as real-world problems that have not been used, and classify them into different hardness levels. It will facilitate research in this area by enabling comprehensive evaluation on diverse and realistic domains. We empirically illustrate the benefits of using Distributional MIPLIB as a research vehicle in two ways. We evaluate the performance of ML-guided variable branching on previously unused distributions to identify potential areas for improvement. Moreover, we propose to learn branching policies from a mix of distributions, demonstrating that mixed distributions achieve better performance compared to homogeneous distributions when there is limited data and generalize well to larger instances. The dataset is publicly available at https://sites.google.com/usc.edu/distributional-miplib/home.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) approaches encompass traditional methods that optimize fixed pipelines for model selection and ensembling, as well as newer LLM-based frameworks that autonomously build pipelines. While LLM-based agents have shown promise in automating machine learning tasks, they often generate low-diversity and suboptimal code, even after multiple iterations. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Tree-Search Enhanced LLM Agents (SELA), an innovative agent-based system that leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to optimize the AutoML process. By representing pipeline configurations as trees, our framework enables agents to conduct experiments intelligently and iteratively refine their strategies, facilitating a more effective exploration of the machine learning solution space. This novel approach allows SELA to discover optimal pathways based on experimental feedback, improving the overall quality of the solutions. In an extensive evaluation across 20 machine learning datasets, we compare the performance of traditional and agent-based AutoML methods, demonstrating that SELA achieves a win rate of 65% to 80% against each baseline across all datasets. These results underscore the significant potential of agent-based strategies in AutoML, offering a fresh perspective on tackling complex machine learning challenges.

In this paper, we consider non-convex multi-block bilevel optimization (MBBO) problems, which involve mgg 1 lower level problems and have important applications in machine learning. Designing a stochastic gradient and controlling its variance is more intricate due to the hierarchical sampling of blocks and data and the unique challenge of estimating hyper-gradient. We aim to achieve three nice properties for our algorithm: (a) matching the state-of-the-art complexity of standard BO problems with a single block; (b) achieving parallel speedup by sampling I blocks and sampling B samples for each sampled block per-iteration; (c) avoiding the computation of the inverse of a high-dimensional Hessian matrix estimator. However, it is non-trivial to achieve all of these by observing that existing works only achieve one or two of these properties. To address the involved challenges for achieving (a, b, c), we propose two stochastic algorithms by using advanced blockwise variance-reduction techniques for tracking the Hessian matrices (for low-dimensional problems) or the Hessian-vector products (for high-dimensional problems), and prove an iteration complexity of O(mepsilon^{-3I(I<m)}{II} + mepsilon^{-3}{IB}) for finding an epsilon-stationary point under appropriate conditions. We also conduct experiments to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms comparing with existing MBBO algorithms.

Despite recent advances in large language models, open-source models often struggle to consistently perform well on complex reasoning tasks. Existing ensemble methods, whether applied at the token or output levels, fail to address these challenges. In response, we present Language model Ensemble with Monte Carlo Tree Search (LE-MCTS), a novel framework for process-level ensembling of language models. LE-MCTS formulates step-by-step reasoning with an ensemble of language models as a Markov decision process. In this framework, states represent intermediate reasoning paths, while actions consist of generating the next reasoning step using one of the language models selected from a predefined pool. Guided by a process-based reward model, LE-MCTS performs a tree search over the reasoning steps generated by different language models, identifying the most accurate reasoning chain. Experimental results on five mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach outperforms both single language model decoding algorithms and language model ensemble methods. Notably, LE-MCTS improves performance by 3.6% and 4.3% on the MATH and MQA datasets, respectively, highlighting its effectiveness in solving complex reasoning problems.

Population-based search has recently emerged as a possible alternative to Reinforcement Learning (RL) for black-box neural architecture search (NAS). It performs well in practice even though it is not theoretically well understood. In particular, whereas traditional population-based search methods such as evolutionary algorithms (EAs) draw much power from crossover operations, it is difficult to take advantage of them in NAS. The main obstacle is believed to be the permutation problem: The mapping between genotype and phenotype in traditional graph representations is many-to-one, leading to a disruptive effect of standard crossover. This paper presents the first theoretical analysis of the behaviors of mutation, crossover and RL in black-box NAS, and proposes a new crossover operator based on the shortest edit path (SEP) in graph space. The SEP crossover is shown theoretically to overcome the permutation problem, and as a result, have a better expected improvement compared to mutation, standard crossover and RL. Further, it empirically outperform these other methods on state-of-the-art NAS benchmarks. The SEP crossover therefore allows taking full advantage of population-based search in NAS, and the underlying theory can serve as a foundation for deeper understanding of black-box NAS methods in general.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

Discovering efficient algorithms for solving complex problems has been an outstanding challenge in mathematics and computer science, requiring substantial human expertise over the years. Recent advancements in evolutionary search with large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in accelerating the discovery of algorithms across various domains, particularly in mathematics and optimization. However, existing approaches treat the LLM as a static generator, missing the opportunity to update the model with the signal obtained from evolutionary exploration. In this work, we propose to augment LLM-based evolutionary search by continuously refining the search operator - the LLM - through reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning. Our method leverages evolutionary search as an exploration strategy to discover improved algorithms, while RL optimizes the LLM policy based on these discoveries. Our experiments on three combinatorial optimization tasks - bin packing, traveling salesman, and the flatpack problem - show that combining RL and evolutionary search improves discovery efficiency of improved algorithms, showcasing the potential of RL-enhanced evolutionary strategies to assist computer scientists and mathematicians for more efficient algorithm design.

In online algorithm selection (OAS), instances of an algorithmic problem class are presented to an agent one after another, and the agent has to quickly select a presumably best algorithm from a fixed set of candidate algorithms. For decision problems such as satisfiability (SAT), quality typically refers to the algorithm's runtime. As the latter is known to exhibit a heavy-tail distribution, an algorithm is normally stopped when exceeding a predefined upper time limit. As a consequence, machine learning methods used to optimize an algorithm selection strategy in a data-driven manner need to deal with right-censored samples, a problem that has received little attention in the literature so far. In this work, we revisit multi-armed bandit algorithms for OAS and discuss their capability of dealing with the problem. Moreover, we adapt them towards runtime-oriented losses, allowing for partially censored data while keeping a space- and time-complexity independent of the time horizon. In an extensive experimental evaluation on an adapted version of the ASlib benchmark, we demonstrate that theoretically well-founded methods based on Thompson sampling perform specifically strong and improve in comparison to existing methods.

The K-core of a graph is the unique maximum subgraph within which each vertex connects to K or more other vertices. The optimal K-core attack problem asks to delete the minimum number of vertices from the K-core to induce its complete collapse. A hierarchical cycle-tree packing model is introduced here for this challenging combinatorial optimization problem. We convert the temporally long-range correlated K-core pruning dynamics into locally tree-like static patterns and analyze this model through the replica-symmetric cavity method of statistical physics. A set of coarse-grained belief propagation equations are derived to predict single vertex marginal probabilities efficiently. The associated hierarchical cycle-tree guided attack ({\tt hCTGA}) algorithm is able to construct nearly optimal attack solutions for regular random graphs and Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graphs. Our cycle-tree packing model may also be helpful for constructing optimal initial conditions for other irreversible dynamical processes on sparse random graphs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in natural language tasks requiring complex reasoning, yet their application in agentic, multi-step reasoning within interactive environments remains a difficult challenge. Traditional supervised pre-training on static datasets falls short in enabling autonomous agent capabilities needed to perform complex decision-making in dynamic settings like web navigation. Previous attempts to bridge this ga-through supervised fine-tuning on curated expert demonstrations-often suffer from compounding errors and limited exploration data, resulting in sub-optimal policy outcomes. To overcome these challenges, we propose a framework that combines guided Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) search with a self-critique mechanism and iterative fine-tuning on agent interactions using an off-policy variant of the Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) algorithm. Our method allows LLM agents to learn effectively from both successful and unsuccessful trajectories, thereby improving their generalization in complex, multi-step reasoning tasks. We validate our approach in the WebShop environment-a simulated e-commerce platform where it consistently outperforms behavior cloning and reinforced fine-tuning baseline, and beats average human performance when equipped with the capability to do online search. In real-world booking scenarios, our methodology boosts Llama-3 70B model's zero-shot performance from 18.6% to 81.7% success rate (a 340% relative increase) after a single day of data collection and further to 95.4% with online search. We believe this represents a substantial leap forward in the capabilities of autonomous agents, paving the way for more sophisticated and reliable decision-making in real-world settings.

Despite their remarkable capabilities, large language models often struggle with tasks requiring complex reasoning and planning. While existing approaches like Chain-of-Thought prompting and tree search techniques show promise, they are limited by their reliance on predefined heuristics and computationally expensive exploration strategies. We propose Policy-Guided Tree Search (PGTS), a framework that combines reinforcement learning with structured tree exploration to efficiently navigate reasoning paths. Our key innovation is a learned policy that dynamically decides between expanding, branching, backtracking, or terminating exploration, eliminating the need for manual heuristics or exhaustive search. Experiments across mathematical reasoning, logical deduction, and planning benchmarks demonstrate that PGTS achieves superior reasoning performance while significantly reducing computational costs compared to existing methods. These results establish PGTS as a scalable and effective solution for tackling complex reasoning tasks with LLMs.

We present a scalable and effective exploration strategy based on Thompson sampling for reinforcement learning (RL). One of the key shortcomings of existing Thompson sampling algorithms is the need to perform a Gaussian approximation of the posterior distribution, which is not a good surrogate in most practical settings. We instead directly sample the Q function from its posterior distribution, by using Langevin Monte Carlo, an efficient type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Our method only needs to perform noisy gradient descent updates to learn the exact posterior distribution of the Q function, which makes our approach easy to deploy in deep RL. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis for the proposed method and demonstrate that, in the linear Markov decision process (linear MDP) setting, it has a regret bound of O(d^{3/2}H^{3/2}T), where d is the dimension of the feature mapping, H is the planning horizon, and T is the total number of steps. We apply this approach to deep RL, by using Adam optimizer to perform gradient updates. Our approach achieves better or similar results compared with state-of-the-art deep RL algorithms on several challenging exploration tasks from the Atari57 suite.

Applying reinforcement learning (RL) to combinatorial optimization problems is attractive as it removes the need for expert knowledge or pre-solved instances. However, it is unrealistic to expect an agent to solve these (often NP-)hard problems in a single shot at inference due to their inherent complexity. Thus, leading approaches often implement additional search strategies, from stochastic sampling and beam search to explicit fine-tuning. In this paper, we argue for the benefits of learning a population of complementary policies, which can be simultaneously rolled out at inference. To this end, we introduce Poppy, a simple training procedure for populations. Instead of relying on a predefined or hand-crafted notion of diversity, Poppy induces an unsupervised specialization targeted solely at maximizing the performance of the population. We show that Poppy produces a set of complementary policies, and obtains state-of-the-art RL results on four popular NP-hard problems: traveling salesman, capacitated vehicle routing, 0-1 knapsack, and job-shop scheduling.

The Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameter optimization (CASH) is one of the most fundamental problems in Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML). The existing Bayesian optimization (BO) based solutions turn the CASH problem into a Hyperparameter Optimization (HPO) problem by combining the hyperparameters of all machine learning (ML) algorithms, and use BO methods to solve it. As a result, these methods suffer from the low-efficiency problem due to the huge hyperparameter space in CASH. To alleviate this issue, we propose the alternating optimization framework, where the HPO problem for each ML algorithm and the algorithm selection problem are optimized alternately. In this framework, the BO methods are used to solve the HPO problem for each ML algorithm separately, incorporating a much smaller hyperparameter space for BO methods. Furthermore, we introduce Rising Bandits, a CASH-oriented Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) variant, to model the algorithm selection in CASH. This framework can take the advantages of both BO in solving the HPO problem with a relatively small hyperparameter space and the MABs in accelerating the algorithm selection. Moreover, we further develop an efficient online algorithm to solve the Rising Bandits with provably theoretical guarantees. The extensive experiments on 30 OpenML datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach over the competitive baselines.

We investigate the problem of stochastic, combinatorial multi-armed bandits where the learner only has access to bandit feedback and the reward function can be non-linear. We provide a general framework for adapting discrete offline approximation algorithms into sublinear alpha-regret methods that only require bandit feedback, achieving Oleft(T^2{3}log(T)^1{3}right) expected cumulative alpha-regret dependence on the horizon T. The framework only requires the offline algorithms to be robust to small errors in function evaluation. The adaptation procedure does not even require explicit knowledge of the offline approximation algorithm -- the offline algorithm can be used as black box subroutine. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework, the proposed framework is applied to multiple problems in submodular maximization, adapting approximation algorithms for cardinality and for knapsack constraints. The new CMAB algorithms for knapsack constraints outperform a full-bandit method developed for the adversarial setting in experiments with real-world data.

We develop a method of adapting the AlphaZero model to General Game Playing (GGP) that focuses on faster model generation and requires less knowledge to be extracted from the game rules. The dataset generation uses MCTS playing instead of self-play; only the value network is used, and attention layers replace the convolutional ones. This allows us to abandon any assumptions about the action space and board topology. We implement the method within the Regular Boardgames GGP system and show that we can build models outperforming the UCT baseline for most games efficiently.

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one. By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

We propose an online training procedure for a transformer-based automated theorem prover. Our approach leverages a new search algorithm, HyperTree Proof Search (HTPS), inspired by the recent success of AlphaZero. Our model learns from previous proof searches through online training, allowing it to generalize to domains far from the training distribution. We report detailed ablations of our pipeline's main components by studying performance on three environments of increasing complexity. In particular, we show that with HTPS alone, a model trained on annotated proofs manages to prove 65.4% of a held-out set of Metamath theorems, significantly outperforming the previous state of the art of 56.5% by GPT-f. Online training on these unproved theorems increases accuracy to 82.6%. With a similar computational budget, we improve the state of the art on the Lean-based miniF2F-curriculum dataset from 31% to 42% proving accuracy.

We propose a unified framework to study policy evaluation (PE) and the associated temporal difference (TD) methods for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space. We show that PE is equivalent to maintaining the martingale condition of a process. From this perspective, we find that the mean--square TD error approximates the quadratic variation of the martingale and thus is not a suitable objective for PE. We present two methods to use the martingale characterization for designing PE algorithms. The first one minimizes a "martingale loss function", whose solution is proved to be the best approximation of the true value function in the mean--square sense. This method interprets the classical gradient Monte-Carlo algorithm. The second method is based on a system of equations called the "martingale orthogonality conditions" with test functions. Solving these equations in different ways recovers various classical TD algorithms, such as TD(lambda), LSTD, and GTD. Different choices of test functions determine in what sense the resulting solutions approximate the true value function. Moreover, we prove that any convergent time-discretized algorithm converges to its continuous-time counterpart as the mesh size goes to zero, and we provide the convergence rate. We demonstrate the theoretical results and corresponding algorithms with numerical experiments and applications.

The Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameters optimization (CASH) problem is one of the fundamental problems in Automated Machine Learning (AutoML). Motivated by the success of ensemble learning, recent AutoML systems build post-hoc ensembles to output the final predictions instead of using the best single learner. However, while most CASH methods focus on searching for a single learner with the best performance, they neglect the diversity among base learners (i.e., they may suggest similar configurations to previously evaluated ones), which is also a crucial consideration when building an ensemble. To tackle this issue and further enhance the ensemble performance, we propose DivBO, a diversity-aware framework to inject explicit search of diversity into the CASH problems. In the framework, we propose to use a diversity surrogate to predict the pair-wise diversity of two unseen configurations. Furthermore, we introduce a temporary pool and a weighted acquisition function to guide the search of both performance and diversity based on Bayesian optimization. Empirical results on 15 public datasets show that DivBO achieves the best average ranks (1.82 and 1.73) on both validation and test errors among 10 compared methods, including post-hoc designs in recent AutoML systems and state-of-the-art baselines for ensemble learning on CASH problems.

Symbolic regression (SR) is the problem of learning a symbolic expression from numerical data. Recently, deep neural models trained on procedurally-generated synthetic datasets showed competitive performance compared to more classical Genetic Programming (GP) algorithms. Unlike their GP counterparts, these neural approaches are trained to generate expressions from datasets given as context. This allows them to produce accurate expressions in a single forward pass at test time. However, they usually do not benefit from search abilities, which result in low performance compared to GP on out-of-distribution datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel method which provides the best of both worlds, based on a Monte-Carlo Tree Search procedure using a context-aware neural mutation model, which is initially pre-trained to learn promising mutations, and further refined from successful experiences in an online fashion. The approach demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on the well-known SRBench benchmark.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their remarkable capacity across a variety of tasks. However, reasoning remains a challenge for LLMs. To improve LLMs' reasoning ability, process supervision has proven to be better than outcome supervision. In this work, we study using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to generate process supervision data with LLMs themselves for training them. We sample reasoning steps with an LLM and assign each step a score that captures its "relative correctness," and the LLM is then trained by minimizing weighted log-likelihood of generating the reasoning steps. This generate-then-train process is repeated iteratively until convergence.Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methods considerably improve the performance of LLMs on two mathematical reasoning datasets. Furthermore, models trained on one dataset also exhibit improved performance on the other, showing the transferability of the enhanced reasoning ability.

Recent advancements in large language models have significantly improved their reasoning abilities, particularly through techniques involving search and backtracking. Backtracking naturally scales test-time compute by enabling sequential, linearized exploration via long chain-of-thought (CoT) generation. However, this is not the only strategy for scaling test-time compute: parallel sampling with best-of-n selection provides an alternative that generates diverse solutions simultaneously. Despite the growing adoption of sequential search, its advantages over parallel sampling--especially under a fixed compute budget remain poorly understood. In this paper, we systematically compare these two approaches on two challenging reasoning tasks: CountDown and Sudoku. Surprisingly, we find that sequential search underperforms parallel sampling on CountDown but outperforms it on Sudoku, suggesting that backtracking is not universally beneficial. We identify two factors that can cause backtracking to degrade performance: (1) training on fixed search traces can lock models into suboptimal strategies, and (2) explicit CoT supervision can discourage "implicit" (non-verbalized) reasoning. Extending our analysis to reinforcement learning (RL), we show that models with backtracking capabilities benefit significantly from RL fine-tuning, while models without backtracking see limited, mixed gains. Together, these findings challenge the assumption that backtracking universally enhances LLM reasoning, instead revealing a complex interaction between task structure, training data, model scale, and learning paradigm.

Learning decompositions of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions promises to scale Bayesian optimisation (BO) to high-dimensional problems. However, the success of these techniques depends on finding proper decompositions that accurately represent the black-box. While previous works learn those decompositions based on data, we investigate data-independent decomposition sampling rules in this paper. We find that data-driven learners of decompositions can be easily misled towards local decompositions that do not hold globally across the search space. Then, we formally show that a random tree-based decomposition sampler exhibits favourable theoretical guarantees that effectively trade off maximal information gain and functional mismatch between the actual black-box and its surrogate as provided by the decomposition. Those results motivate the development of the random decomposition upper-confidence bound algorithm (RDUCB) that is straightforward to implement - (almost) plug-and-play - and, surprisingly, yields significant empirical gains compared to the previous state-of-the-art on a comprehensive set of benchmarks. We also confirm the plug-and-play nature of our modelling component by integrating our method with HEBO, showing improved practical gains in the highest dimensional tasks from Bayesmark.

Large Language Models have excelled in remarkable reasoning capabilities with advanced prompting techniques, but they fall short on tasks that require exploration, strategic foresight, and sequential decision-making. Recent works propose to utilize external programs to define search logic, such that LLMs can perform passive tree search to solve more challenging reasoning tasks. Though impressive results have been achieved, there are several fundamental limitations of these approaches. First, passive tree searches are not efficient as they usually require multiple rounds of LLM API calls to solve one single problem. Moreover, passive search methods are not flexible since they need task-specific program designs. Then a natural question arises: can we maintain the tree-search capability of LLMs without the aid of external programs, and can still generate responses that clearly demonstrate the process of a tree-structure search? To this end, we propose a new concept called autonomous tree-search ability of LLM, which can automatically generate a response containing search trajectories for the correct answer. Concretely, we perform search trajectories using capable LLM API via a fixed system prompt, allowing them to perform autonomous tree-search (ATS) right out of the box. Experiments on 4 puzzle games demonstrate our method can achieve huge improvements. The ATS-BFS method outperforms the Chain of Thought approach by achieving an average accuracy improvement of 33%. Compared to Tree of Thoughts, it requires 65.6% or 47.7% less GPT-api cost to attain a comparable level of accuracy. Moreover, we have collected data using the ATS prompt method and fine-tuned LLaMA. This approach yield a greater improvement compared to the ones fine-tuned on CoT data. Specifically, it outperforms CoT-tuned LLaMAs by an average of 40.6% and 38.5% for LLaMA2-7B and LLaMA2-13B, respectively.

Recently, test-time scaling has garnered significant attention from the research community, largely due to the substantial advancements of the o1 model released by OpenAI. By allocating more computational resources during the inference phase, large language models~(LLMs) can extensively explore the solution space by generating more thought tokens or diverse solutions, thereby producing more accurate responses. However, developing an o1-like reasoning approach is challenging, and researchers have been making various attempts to advance this open area of research. In this paper, we present a preliminary exploration into enhancing the reasoning abilities of LLMs through reward-guided tree search algorithms. This framework is implemented by integrating the policy model, reward model, and search algorithm. It is primarily constructed around a tree search algorithm, where the policy model navigates a dynamically expanding tree guided by a specially trained reward model. We thoroughly explore various design considerations necessary for implementing this framework and provide a detailed report of the technical aspects. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we focus on mathematical reasoning tasks and conduct extensive evaluations on four challenging datasets, significantly enhancing the reasoning abilities of LLMs.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

Automated Theorem Proving (ATP) in formal languages remains a formidable challenge in AI, demanding rigorous logical deduction and navigating vast search spaces. While large language models (LLMs) have shown promising performance, existing stepwise provers often suffer from biased search guidance, leading to inefficiencies and suboptimal proof strategies. This paper introduces the Multi-Perspective Search Prover (MPS-Prover), a novel stepwise ATP system designed to overcome these limitations. MPS-Prover incorporates two key innovations: a highly effective post-training data curation strategy that prunes approximately 40% of redundant training data without sacrificing performance, and a multi-perspective tree search mechanism. This search integrates a learned critic model with strategically designed heuristic rules to diversify tactic selection, prevent getting trapped in unproductive states, and enhance search robustness. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that MPS-Prover achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple challenging benchmarks, including miniF2F and ProofNet, outperforming prior 7B parameter models. Furthermore, our analyses reveal that MPS-Prover generates significantly shorter and more diverse proofs compared to existing stepwise and whole-proof methods, highlighting its efficiency and efficacy. Our work advances the capabilities of LLM-based formal reasoning and offers a robust framework and a comprehensive analysis for developing more powerful theorem provers.

In this work, we aim to develop an MLLM that understands and solves questions by learning to create each intermediate step of the reasoning involved till the final answer. To this end, we propose Collective Monte Carlo Tree Search (CoMCTS), a new learning-to-reason method for MLLMs, which introduces the concept of collective learning into ``tree search'' for effective and efficient reasoning-path searching and learning. The core idea of CoMCTS is to leverage collective knowledge from multiple models to collaboratively conjecture, search and identify effective reasoning paths toward correct answers via four iterative operations including Expansion, Simulation and Error Positioning, Backpropagation, and Selection. Using CoMCTS, we construct Mulberry-260k, a multimodal dataset with a tree of rich, explicit and well-defined reasoning nodes for each question. With Mulberry-260k, we perform collective SFT to train our model, Mulberry, a series of MLLMs with o1-like step-by-step Reasoning and Reflection capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our proposed methods on various benchmarks. Code will be available at https://github.com/HJYao00/Mulberry

Neural architecture search (NAS) with an accuracy predictor that predicts the accuracy of candidate architectures has drawn increasing attention due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Previous works usually employ neural network-based predictors which require more delicate design and are easy to overfit. Considering that most architectures are represented as sequences of discrete symbols which are more like tabular data and preferred by non-neural predictors, in this paper, we study an alternative approach which uses non-neural model for accuracy prediction. Specifically, as decision tree based models can better handle tabular data, we leverage gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) as the predictor for NAS. We demonstrate that the GBDT predictor can achieve comparable (if not better) prediction accuracy than neural network based predictors. Moreover, considering that a compact search space can ease the search process, we propose to prune the search space gradually according to important features derived from GBDT. In this way, NAS can be performed by first pruning the search space and then searching a neural architecture, which is more efficient and effective. Experiments on NASBench-101 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of using GBDT as predictor for NAS: (1) On NASBench-101, it is 22x, 8x, and 6x more sample efficient than random search, regularized evolution, and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) in finding the global optimum; (2) It achieves 24.2% top-1 error rate on ImageNet, and further achieves 23.4% top-1 error rate on ImageNet when enhanced with search space pruning. Code is provided at https://github.com/renqianluo/GBDT-NAS.

This work studies a central extremal graph theory problem inspired by a 1975 conjecture of Erdos, which aims to find graphs with a given size (number of nodes) that maximize the number of edges without having 3- or 4-cycles. We formulate this problem as a sequential decision-making problem and compare AlphaZero, a neural network-guided tree search, with tabu search, a heuristic local search method. Using either method, by introducing a curriculum -- jump-starting the search for larger graphs using good graphs found at smaller sizes -- we improve the state-of-the-art lower bounds for several sizes. We also propose a flexible graph-generation environment and a permutation-invariant network architecture for learning to search in the space of graphs.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

In the interaction between agents and their environments, agents expand their capabilities by planning and executing actions. However, LLM-based agents face substantial challenges when deployed in novel environments or required to navigate unconventional action spaces. To empower agents to autonomously explore environments, optimize workflows, and enhance their understanding of actions, we propose SynWorld, a framework that allows agents to synthesize possible scenarios with multi-step action invocation within the action space and perform Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) exploration to effectively refine their action knowledge in the current environment. Our experiments demonstrate that SynWorld is an effective and general approach to learning action knowledge in new environments. Code is available at https://github.com/zjunlp/SynWorld.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful framework to optimize black-box expensive-to-evaluate functions via sequential interactions. In several important problems (e.g. drug discovery, circuit design, neural architecture search, etc.), though, such functions are defined over large combinatorial and unstructured spaces. This makes existing BO algorithms not feasible due to the intractable maximization of the acquisition function over these domains. To address this issue, we propose GameOpt, a novel game-theoretical approach to combinatorial BO. GameOpt establishes a cooperative game between the different optimization variables, and selects points that are game equilibria of an upper confidence bound acquisition function. These are stable configurations from which no variable has an incentive to deviate- analog to local optima in continuous domains. Crucially, this allows us to efficiently break down the complexity of the combinatorial domain into individual decision sets, making GameOpt scalable to large combinatorial spaces. We demonstrate the application of GameOpt to the challenging protein design problem and validate its performance on four real-world protein datasets. Each protein can take up to 20^{X} possible configurations, where X is the length of a protein, making standard BO methods infeasible. Instead, our approach iteratively selects informative protein configurations and very quickly discovers highly active protein variants compared to other baselines.

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has emerged as a promising technique for automatic neural network design. However, existing MCTS based NAS approaches often utilize manually designed action space, which is not directly related to the performance metric to be optimized (e.g., accuracy), leading to sample-inefficient explorations of architectures. To improve the sample efficiency, this paper proposes Latent Action Neural Architecture Search (LaNAS), which learns actions to recursively partition the search space into good or bad regions that contain networks with similar performance metrics. During the search phase, as different action sequences lead to regions with different performance, the search efficiency can be significantly improved by biasing towards the good regions. On three NAS tasks, empirical results demonstrate that LaNAS is at least an order more sample efficient than baseline methods including evolutionary algorithms, Bayesian optimizations, and random search. When applied in practice, both one-shot and regular LaNAS consistently outperform existing results. Particularly, LaNAS achieves 99.0% accuracy on CIFAR-10 and 80.8% top1 accuracy at 600 MFLOPS on ImageNet in only 800 samples, significantly outperforming AmoebaNet with 33x fewer samples. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/LaMCTS.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

The recently presented idea to learn heuristics for combinatorial optimization problems is promising as it can save costly development. However, to push this idea towards practical implementation, we need better models and better ways of training. We contribute in both directions: we propose a model based on attention layers with benefits over the Pointer Network and we show how to train this model using REINFORCE with a simple baseline based on a deterministic greedy rollout, which we find is more efficient than using a value function. We significantly improve over recent learned heuristics for the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP), getting close to optimal results for problems up to 100 nodes. With the same hyperparameters, we learn strong heuristics for two variants of the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), the Orienteering Problem (OP) and (a stochastic variant of) the Prize Collecting TSP (PCTSP), outperforming a wide range of baselines and getting results close to highly optimized and specialized algorithms.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is typically used to optimize an unknown function f that is noisy and costly to evaluate, by exploiting an acquisition function that must be maximized at each optimization step. Even if provably asymptotically optimal BO algorithms are efficient at optimizing low-dimensional functions, scaling them to high-dimensional spaces remains an open problem, often tackled by assuming an additive structure for f. By doing so, BO algorithms typically introduce additional restrictive assumptions on the additive structure that reduce their applicability domain. This paper contains two main contributions: (i) we relax the restrictive assumptions on the additive structure of f without weakening the maximization guarantees of the acquisition function, and (ii) we address the over-exploration problem for decentralized BO algorithms. To these ends, we propose DuMBO, an asymptotically optimal decentralized BO algorithm that achieves very competitive performance against state-of-the-art BO algorithms, especially when the additive structure of f comprises high-dimensional factors.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

Long-form generation is crucial for academic writing papers and repo-level code generation. Despite this, current models, including GPT-4o, still exhibit unsatisfactory performance. Existing methods that utilize preference learning with outcome supervision often fail to provide detailed feedback for extended contexts. This shortcoming can lead to content that does not fully satisfy query requirements, resulting in issues like length deviations, and diminished quality. In this paper, we propose enhancing long-form generation by incorporating process supervision. We employ Monte Carlo Tree Search to gather stepwise preference pairs, utilizing a global memory pool to maintain consistency. To address the issue of suboptimal candidate selection, we integrate external critiques to refine and improve the quality of the preference pairs. Finally, we apply step-level DPO using the collected stepwise preference pairs. Experimental results show that our method improves length and quality on long-form generation benchmarks, with almost lossless performance on general benchmarks across various model backbones.

LLMs exhibit advanced reasoning capabilities, offering the potential to transform natural language questions into mathematical models. However, existing open-source datasets in operations research domain lack detailed annotations of the modeling process, such as variable definitions, focusing solely on objective values, which hinders reinforcement learning applications. To address this, we release the StructuredOR dataset, annotated with comprehensive labels that capture the complete mathematical modeling process. We further propose BPP-Search, a algorithm that integrates reinforcement learning into a tree-of-thought structure using Beam search, a Process reward model, and a pairwise Preference algorithm. This approach enables efficient exploration of tree structures, avoiding exhaustive search while improving accuracy. Extensive experiments on StructuredOR, NL4OPT, and MAMO-ComplexLP datasets show that BPP-Search significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. In tree-based reasoning, BPP-Search excels in accuracy and efficiency, enabling faster retrieval of correct solutions.

We introduce HunyuanProver, an language model finetuned from the Hunyuan 7B for interactive automatic theorem proving with LEAN4. To alleviate the data sparsity issue, we design a scalable framework to iterative synthesize data with low cost. Besides, guided tree search algorithms are designed to enable effective ``system 2 thinking`` of the prover. HunyuanProver achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performances on major benchmarks. Specifically, it achieves a pass of 68.4% on the miniF2F-test compared to 65.9%, the current SOTA results. It proves 4 IMO statements (imo_1960_p2, imo_1962_p2}, imo_1964_p2 and imo_1983_p6) in miniF2F-test. To benefit the community, we will open-source a dataset of 30k synthesized instances, where each instance contains the original question in natural language, the converted statement by autoformalization, and the proof by HunyuanProver.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

We endow Large Language Models (LLMs) with fine-grained self-evaluation to refine multi-step reasoning inference. We propose an effective prompting approach that integrates self-evaluation guidance through stochastic beam search. Our approach explores the reasoning search space using a well-calibrated automatic criterion. This enables an efficient search to produce higher-quality final predictions. With the self-evaluation guided stochastic beam search, we also balance the quality-diversity trade-off in the generation of reasoning chains. This allows our approach to adapt well with majority voting and surpass the corresponding Codex-backboned baselines by 6.34%, 9.56%, and 5.46% on the GSM8K, AQuA, and StrategyQA benchmarks, respectively, in few-shot accuracy. Analysis of our decompositional reasoning finds it pinpoints logic failures and leads to higher consistency and robustness. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiXie/SelfEval-Guided-Decoding.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Despite the success of neural-based combinatorial optimization methods for end-to-end heuristic learning, out-of-distribution generalization remains a challenge. In this paper, we present a novel formulation of Combinatorial Optimization Problems (COPs) as Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that effectively leverages common symmetries of COPs to improve out-of-distribution robustness. Starting from a direct MDP formulation of a constructive method, we introduce a generic way to reduce the state space, based on Bisimulation Quotienting (BQ) in MDPs. Then, for COPs with a recursive nature, we specialize the bisimulation and show how the reduced state exploits the symmetries of these problems and facilitates MDP solving. Our approach is principled and we prove that an optimal policy for the proposed BQ-MDP actually solves the associated COPs. We illustrate our approach on five classical problems: the Euclidean and Asymmetric Traveling Salesman, Capacitated Vehicle Routing, Orienteering and Knapsack Problems. Furthermore, for each problem, we introduce a simple attention-based policy network for the BQ-MDPs, which we train by imitation of (near) optimal solutions of small instances from a single distribution. We obtain new state-of-the-art results for the five COPs on both synthetic and realistic benchmarks. Notably, in contrast to most existing neural approaches, our learned policies show excellent generalization performance to much larger instances than seen during training, without any additional search procedure.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: We formulate the structure learning problem as a purely continuous optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved by standard numerical algorithms, which also makes implementation effortless. The proposed method outperforms existing ones, without imposing any structural assumptions on the graph such as bounded treewidth or in-degree. Code implementing the proposed algorithm is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/xunzheng/notears.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Performance of machine learning algorithms depends critically on identifying a good set of hyperparameters. While recent approaches use Bayesian optimization to adaptively select configurations, we focus on speeding up random search through adaptive resource allocation and early-stopping. We formulate hyperparameter optimization as a pure-exploration non-stochastic infinite-armed bandit problem where a predefined resource like iterations, data samples, or features is allocated to randomly sampled configurations. We introduce a novel algorithm, Hyperband, for this framework and analyze its theoretical properties, providing several desirable guarantees. Furthermore, we compare Hyperband with popular Bayesian optimization methods on a suite of hyperparameter optimization problems. We observe that Hyperband can provide over an order-of-magnitude speedup over our competitor set on a variety of deep-learning and kernel-based learning problems.

We present COS(M+O)S, a System 2-inspired framework for open-ended plot development that systematically explores the vast space of possible story expansions, enabling a 3B-parameter language model to approach the plot quality of a 70B model on select short-story tasks. The method accomplishes this by combining Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), guided by a step-level value model that rewards moderate surprisal (curiosity) while penalizing incoherence, and Odds Ratio Preference Optimization (ORPO) to fine-tune the policy on high-value plot expansions. This iterative reinforcement learning loop systematically explores multiple candidate plot branches, backpropagates quality signals, and adapts the policy for faster convergence, notably shifting the policy from puzzle-based Chain-of-Thought to more character-driven storytelling. In small-scale tests with short-story prompts, 67%-77% of participants favored COS(M+O)S's highest-rated expansions over lower-rated ones, suggesting that our learned value function aligns. GPT-4o ratings further show that COS(M+O)S surpasses naive single-pass decoding from Llama 3.2 3B by 0.59 SD, coming within 0.06 SD of Llama 3.1 70B (no significant difference, p=0.93). Pairwise comparisons with o1 place COS(M+O)S 1.5 SD above the 3B baseline and find no statistically significant gap from 70B. Nevertheless, absolute story quality remains modest, constrained by the small model's capacity and limited training data.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

In this paper we address the solution of the popular Wordle puzzle, using new reinforcement learning methods, which apply more generally to adaptive control of dynamic systems and to classes of Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) problems. These methods are based on approximation in value space and the rollout approach, admit a straightforward implementation, and provide improved performance over various heuristic approaches. For the Wordle puzzle, they yield on-line solution strategies that are very close to optimal at relatively modest computational cost. Our methods are viable for more complex versions of Wordle and related search problems, for which an optimal strategy would be impossible to compute. They are also applicable to a wide range of adaptive sequential decision problems that involve an unknown or frequently changing environment whose parameters are estimated on-line.

The rapid advancement in capabilities of large language models (LLMs) raises a pivotal question: How can LLMs accelerate scientific discovery? This work tackles the crucial first stage of research, generating novel hypotheses. While recent work on automated hypothesis generation focuses on multi-agent frameworks and extending test-time compute, none of the approaches effectively incorporate transparency and steerability through a synergistic Human-in-the-loop (HITL) approach. To address this gap, we introduce IRIS: Interactive Research Ideation System, an open-source platform designed for researchers to leverage LLM-assisted scientific ideation. IRIS incorporates innovative features to enhance ideation, including adaptive test-time compute expansion via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), fine-grained feedback mechanism, and query-based literature synthesis. Designed to empower researchers with greater control and insight throughout the ideation process. We additionally conduct a user study with researchers across diverse disciplines, validating the effectiveness of our system in enhancing ideation. We open-source our code at https://github.com/Anikethh/IRIS-Interactive-Research-Ideation-System

We introduce a new family of particle evolution samplers suitable for constrained domains and non-Euclidean geometries. Stein Variational Mirror Descent and Mirrored Stein Variational Gradient Descent minimize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to constrained target distributions by evolving particles in a dual space defined by a mirror map. Stein Variational Natural Gradient exploits non-Euclidean geometry to more efficiently minimize the KL divergence to unconstrained targets. We derive these samplers from a new class of mirrored Stein operators and adaptive kernels developed in this work. We demonstrate that these new samplers yield accurate approximations to distributions on the simplex, deliver valid confidence intervals in post-selection inference, and converge more rapidly than prior methods in large-scale unconstrained posterior inference. Finally, we establish the convergence of our new procedures under verifiable conditions on the target distribution.

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved impressive progress in vision-language understanding, they still struggle with complex multi-step reasoning, often producing logically inconsistent or partially correct solutions. A key limitation lies in the lack of fine-grained supervision over intermediate reasoning steps. To address this, we propose MM-PRM, a process reward model trained within a fully automated, scalable framework. We first build MM-Policy, a strong multimodal model trained on diverse mathematical reasoning data. Then, we construct MM-K12, a curated dataset of 10,000 multimodal math problems with verifiable answers, which serves as seed data. Leveraging a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-based pipeline, we generate over 700k step-level annotations without human labeling. The resulting PRM is used to score candidate reasoning paths in the Best-of-N inference setup and achieves significant improvements across both in-domain (MM-K12 test set) and out-of-domain (OlympiadBench, MathVista, etc.) benchmarks. Further analysis confirms the effectiveness of soft labels, smaller learning rates, and path diversity in optimizing PRM performance. MM-PRM demonstrates that process supervision is a powerful tool for enhancing the logical robustness of multimodal reasoning systems. We release all our codes and data at https://github.com/ModalMinds/MM-PRM.

State-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive problem-solving capabilities but may struggle with complex reasoning and factual correctness. Existing methods harness the strengths of chain-of-thought and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to decompose a complex problem into simpler steps and apply retrieval to improve factual correctness. These methods work well on straightforward reasoning tasks but often falter on challenging tasks such as competitive programming and mathematics, due to frequent reasoning errors and irrelevant knowledge retrieval. To address this, we introduce Critic-guided planning with Retrieval-augmentation, CR-Planner, a novel framework that leverages fine-tuned critic models to guide both reasoning and retrieval processes through planning. CR-Planner solves a problem by iteratively selecting and executing sub-goals. Initially, it identifies the most promising sub-goal from reasoning, query generation, and retrieval, guided by rewards given by a critic model named sub-goal critic. It then executes this sub-goal through sampling and selecting the optimal output based on evaluations from another critic model named execution critic. This iterative process, informed by retrieved information and critic models, enables CR-Planner to effectively navigate the solution space towards the final answer. We employ Monte Carlo Tree Search to collect the data for training the critic models, allowing for a systematic exploration of action sequences and their long-term impacts. We validate CR-Planner on challenging domain-knowledge-intensive and reasoning-heavy tasks, including competitive programming, theorem-driven math reasoning, and complex domain retrieval problems. Our experiments demonstrate that CR-Planner significantly outperforms baselines, highlighting its effectiveness in addressing challenging problems by improving both reasoning and retrieval.

There is a strong link between the general concept of intelligence and the ability to collect and use information. The theory of Bayes-adaptive exploration offers an attractive optimality framework for training machines to perform complex information gathering tasks. However, the computational complexity of the resulting optimal control problem has limited the diffusion of the theory to mainstream deep AI research. In this paper we exploit the inherent mathematical structure of Bayes-adaptive problems in order to dramatically simplify the problem by making the reward structure denser while simultaneously decoupling the learning of exploitation and exploration policies. The key to this simplification comes from the novel concept of cross-value (i.e. the value of being in an environment while acting optimally according to another), which we use to quantify the value of currently available information. This results in a new denser reward structure that "cashes in" all future rewards that can be predicted from the current information state. In a set of experiments we show that the approach makes it possible to learn challenging information gathering tasks without the use of shaping and heuristic bonuses in situations where the standard RL algorithms fail.

Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the Controlled Monte Carlo Diffusion sampler (CMCD) for Bayesian computation, a score-based annealing technique that crucially adapts both forward and backward dynamics in a diffusion model. On the way, we clarify the relationship between the EM-algorithm and iterative proportional fitting (IPF) for Schr{\"o}dinger bridges, deriving as well a regularised objective that bypasses the iterative bottleneck of standard IPF-updates. Finally, we show that CMCD has a strong foundation in the Jarzinsky and Crooks identities from statistical physics, and that it convincingly outperforms competing approaches across a wide array of experiments.

Random forests and, more generally, (decision\nobreakdash-)tree ensembles are widely used methods for classification and regression. Recent algorithmic advances allow to compute decision trees that are optimal for various measures such as their size or depth. We are not aware of such research for tree ensembles and aim to contribute to this area. Mainly, we provide two novel algorithms and corresponding lower bounds. First, we are able to carry over and substantially improve on tractability results for decision trees, obtaining a (6delta D S)^S cdot poly-time algorithm, where S is the number of cuts in the tree ensemble, D the largest domain size, and delta is the largest number of features in which two examples differ. To achieve this, we introduce the witness-tree technique which also seems promising for practice. Second, we show that dynamic programming, which has been successful for decision trees, may also be viable for tree ensembles, providing an ell^n cdot poly-time algorithm, where ell is the number of trees and n the number of examples. Finally, we compare the number of cuts necessary to classify training data sets for decision trees and tree ensembles, showing that ensembles may need exponentially fewer cuts for increasing number of trees.

We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to relax classical restrictions on such designs and investigate how to incorporate ideas from the recent machine learning literature on adaptive and online experimentation to make trials more flexible and efficient. We find that the unique characteristics of the subpopulation selection problem -- most importantly that (i) one is usually interested in finding subpopulations with any treatment benefit (and not necessarily the single subgroup with largest effect) given a limited budget and that (ii) effectiveness only has to be demonstrated across the subpopulation on average -- give rise to interesting challenges and new desiderata when designing algorithmic solutions. Building on these findings, we propose AdaGGI and AdaGCPI, two meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction. We empirically investigate their performance across a range of simulation scenarios and derive insights into their (dis)advantages across different settings.

We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem with high-dimensional features. We analyze the Thompson sampling algorithm using special classes of sparsity-inducing priors (e.g., spike-and-slab) to model the unknown parameter and provide a nearly optimal upper bound on the expected cumulative regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees of Thompson sampling in high-dimensional and sparse contextual bandits. For faster computation, we use variational inference instead of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution. Extensive simulations demonstrate the improved performance of our proposed algorithm over existing ones.

The optimization of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions is prevalent in various scientific disciplines. Bayesian optimization is an automatic, general and sample-efficient method to solve these problems with minimal knowledge of the underlying function dynamics. However, the ability of Bayesian optimization to incorporate prior knowledge or beliefs about the function at hand in order to accelerate the optimization is limited, which reduces its appeal for knowledgeable practitioners with tight budgets. To allow domain experts to customize the optimization routine, we propose ColaBO, the first Bayesian-principled framework for incorporating prior beliefs beyond the typical kernel structure, such as the likely location of the optimizer or the optimal value. The generality of ColaBO makes it applicable across different Monte Carlo acquisition functions and types of user beliefs. We empirically demonstrate ColaBO's ability to substantially accelerate optimization when the prior information is accurate, and to retain approximately default performance when it is misleading.

Recent studies show that Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong reasoning capabilities through supervised fine-tuning or reinforcement learning. However, a key approach, the Process Reward Model (PRM), suffers from reward hacking, making it unreliable in identifying the best intermediate steps. In this paper, we propose a novel reward model approach, Hierarchical Reward Model (HRM), which evaluates both individual and consecutive reasoning steps from fine-grained and coarse-grained level. HRM performs better in assessing reasoning coherence and self-reflection, particularly when the previous reasoning step is incorrect. Furthermore, to address the inefficiency of autonomous generating PRM training data via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), we introduce a lightweight and effective data augmentation strategy called Hierarchical Node Compression (HNC) based on node merging (combining two consecutive reasoning steps into one step) in the tree structure. This approach diversifies MCTS results for HRM with negligible computational overhead, enhancing label robustness by introducing noise. Empirical results on the PRM800K dataset demonstrate that HRM, in conjunction with HNC, achieves superior stability and reliability in evaluation compared to PRM. Furthermore, cross-domain evaluations on MATH500 and GSM8K confirm HRM's superior generalization and robustness across diverse reasoning tasks. The code for all experiments will be released at https: //github.com/tengwang0318/hierarchial_reward_model.

Large language models (LLMs) solve problems more accurately and interpretably when instructed to work out the answer step by step using a ``chain-of-thought'' (CoT) prompt. One can also improve LLMs' performance on a specific task by supervised fine-tuning, i.e., by using gradient ascent on some tunable parameters to maximize the average log-likelihood of correct answers from a labeled training set. Naively combining CoT with supervised tuning requires supervision not just of the correct answers, but also of detailed rationales that lead to those answers; these rationales are expensive to produce by hand. Instead, we propose a fine-tuning strategy that tries to maximize the marginal log-likelihood of generating a correct answer using CoT prompting, approximately averaging over all possible rationales. The core challenge is sampling from the posterior over rationales conditioned on the correct answer; we address it using a simple Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm inspired by the self-taught reasoner (STaR), memoized wake-sleep, Markovian score climbing, and persistent contrastive divergence. This algorithm also admits a novel control-variate technique that drives the variance of our gradient estimates to zero as the model improves. Applying our technique to GSM8K and the tasks in BIG-Bench Hard, we find that this MCMC-EM fine-tuning technique typically improves the model's accuracy on held-out examples more than STaR or prompt-tuning with or without CoT.

Since the emergence of large language models, prompt learning has become a popular method for optimizing and customizing these models. Special prompts, such as Chain-of-Thought, have even revealed previously unknown reasoning capabilities within these models. However, the progress of discovering effective prompts has been slow, driving a desire for general prompt optimization methods. Unfortunately, few existing prompt learning methods satisfy the criteria of being truly "general", i.e., automatic, discrete, black-box, gradient-free, and interpretable all at once. In this paper, we introduce metaheuristics, a branch of discrete non-convex optimization methods with over 100 options, as a promising approach to prompt learning. Within our paradigm, we test six typical methods: hill climbing, simulated annealing, genetic algorithms with/without crossover, tabu search, and harmony search, demonstrating their effectiveness in black-box prompt learning and Chain-of-Thought prompt tuning. Furthermore, we show that these methods can be used to discover more human-understandable prompts that were previously unknown, opening the door to a cornucopia of possibilities in prompt optimization. We release all the codes in https://github.com/research4pan/Plum.

Stochastic optimization is one of the central problems in Machine Learning and Theoretical Computer Science. In the standard model, the algorithm is given a fixed distribution known in advance. In practice though, one may acquire at a cost extra information to make better decisions. In this paper, we study how to buy information for stochastic optimization and formulate this question as an online learning problem. Assuming the learner has an oracle for the original optimization problem, we design a 2-competitive deterministic algorithm and a e/(e-1)-competitive randomized algorithm for buying information. We show that this ratio is tight as the problem is equivalent to a robust generalization of the ski-rental problem, which we call super-martingale stopping. We also consider an adaptive setting where the learner can choose to buy information after taking some actions for the underlying optimization problem. We focus on the classic optimization problem, Min-Sum Set Cover, where the goal is to quickly find an action that covers a given request drawn from a known distribution. We provide an 8-competitive algorithm running in polynomial time that chooses actions and decides when to buy information about the underlying request.

Machine learning is a prevalent approach to tame the complexity of design space exploration for domain-specific architectures. Using ML for design space exploration poses challenges. First, it's not straightforward to identify the suitable algorithm from an increasing pool of ML methods. Second, assessing the trade-offs between performance and sample efficiency across these methods is inconclusive. Finally, lack of a holistic framework for fair, reproducible, and objective comparison across these methods hinders progress of adopting ML-aided architecture design space exploration and impedes creating repeatable artifacts. To mitigate these challenges, we introduce ArchGym, an open-source gym and easy-to-extend framework that connects diverse search algorithms to architecture simulators. To demonstrate utility, we evaluate ArchGym across multiple vanilla and domain-specific search algorithms in designing custom memory controller, deep neural network accelerators, and custom SoC for AR/VR workloads, encompassing over 21K experiments. Results suggest that with unlimited samples, ML algorithms are equally favorable to meet user-defined target specification if hyperparameters are tuned; no solution is necessarily better than another (e.g., reinforcement learning vs. Bayesian methods). We coin the term hyperparameter lottery to describe the chance for a search algorithm to find an optimal design provided meticulously selected hyperparameters. The ease of data collection and aggregation in ArchGym facilitates research in ML-aided architecture design space exploration. As a case study, we show this advantage by developing a proxy cost model with an RMSE of 0.61% that offers a 2,000-fold reduction in simulation time. Code and data for ArchGym is available at https://bit.ly/ArchGym.

The optimal stopping problem is a category of decision problems with a specific constrained configuration. It is relevant to various real-world applications such as finance and management. To solve the optimal stopping problem, state-of-the-art algorithms in dynamic programming, such as the least-squares Monte Carlo (LSMC), are employed. This type of algorithm relies on path simulations using only the last price of the underlying asset as a state representation. Also, the LSMC was thinking for option valuation where risk-neutral probabilities can be employed to account for uncertainty. However, the general optimal stopping problem goals may not fit the requirements of the LSMC showing auto-correlated prices. We employ a data-driven method that uses Monte Carlo simulation to train and test artificial neural networks (ANN) to solve the optimal stopping problem. Using ANN to solve decision problems is not entirely new. We propose a different architecture that uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) to deal with the dimensionality problem that arises when we transform the whole history of prices into a Markovian state. We present experiments that indicate that our proposed architecture improves results over the previous implementations under specific simulated time series function sets. Lastly, we employ our proposed method to compare the optimal exercise of the financial options problem with the LSMC algorithm. Our experiments show that our method can capture more accurate exercise opportunities when compared to the LSMC. We have outstandingly higher (above 974\% improvement) expected payoff from these exercise policies under the many Monte Carlo simulations that used the real-world return database on the out-of-sample (test) data.

Many existing reinforcement learning (RL) methods employ stochastic gradient iteration on the back end, whose stability hinges upon a hypothesis that the data-generating process mixes exponentially fast with a rate parameter that appears in the step-size selection. Unfortunately, this assumption is violated for large state spaces or settings with sparse rewards, and the mixing time is unknown, making the step size inoperable. In this work, we propose an RL methodology attuned to the mixing time by employing a multi-level Monte Carlo estimator for the critic, the actor, and the average reward embedded within an actor-critic (AC) algorithm. This method, which we call Multi-level Actor-Critic (MAC), is developed especially for infinite-horizon average-reward settings and neither relies on oracle knowledge of the mixing time in its parameter selection nor assumes its exponential decay; it, therefore, is readily applicable to applications with slower mixing times. Nonetheless, it achieves a convergence rate comparable to the state-of-the-art AC algorithms. We experimentally show that these alleviated restrictions on the technical conditions required for stability translate to superior performance in practice for RL problems with sparse rewards.

Many reinforcement learning environments (e.g., Minecraft) provide only sparse rewards that indicate task completion or failure with binary values. The challenge in exploration efficiency in such environments makes it difficult for reinforcement-learning-based agents to learn complex tasks. To address this, this paper introduces an advanced learning system, named Auto MC-Reward, that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to automatically design dense reward functions, thereby enhancing the learning efficiency. Auto MC-Reward consists of three important components: Reward Designer, Reward Critic, and Trajectory Analyzer. Given the environment information and task descriptions, the Reward Designer first design the reward function by coding an executable Python function with predefined observation inputs. Then, our Reward Critic will be responsible for verifying the code, checking whether the code is self-consistent and free of syntax and semantic errors. Further, the Trajectory Analyzer summarizes possible failure causes and provides refinement suggestions according to collected trajectories. In the next round, Reward Designer will further refine and iterate the dense reward function based on feedback. Experiments demonstrate a significant improvement in the success rate and learning efficiency of our agents in complex tasks in Minecraft, such as obtaining diamond with the efficient ability to avoid lava, and efficiently explore trees and animals that are sparse in the plains biome.

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the scalability and parallelization of local search algorithms for the Satisfiability problem. We propose a framework to estimate the parallel performance of a given algorithm by analyzing the runtime behavior of its sequential version. Indeed, by approximating the runtime distribution of the sequential process with statistical methods, the runtime behavior of the parallel process can be predicted by a model based on order statistics. We apply this approach to study the parallel performance of two SAT local search solvers, namely Sparrow and CCASAT, and compare the predicted performances to the results of an actual experimentation on parallel hardware up to 384 cores. We show that the model is accurate and predicts performance close to the empirical data. Moreover, as we study different types of instances (random and crafted), we observe that the local search solvers exhibit different behaviors and that their runtime distributions can be approximated by two types of distributions: exponential (shifted and non-shifted) and lognormal.

We study infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision processes (AMDPs) in the context of general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithmic framework named Local-fitted Optimization with OPtimism (LOOP), which incorporates both model-based and value-based incarnations. In particular, LOOP features a novel construction of confidence sets and a low-switching policy updating scheme, which are tailored to the average-reward and function approximation setting. Moreover, for AMDPs, we propose a novel complexity measure -- average-reward generalized eluder coefficient (AGEC) -- which captures the challenge of exploration in AMDPs with general function approximation. Such a complexity measure encompasses almost all previously known tractable AMDP models, such as linear AMDPs and linear mixture AMDPs, and also includes newly identified cases such as kernel AMDPs and AMDPs with Bellman eluder dimensions. Using AGEC, we prove that LOOP achieves a sublinear mathcal{O}(poly(d, sp(V^*)) Tbeta ) regret, where d and beta correspond to AGEC and log-covering number of the hypothesis class respectively, sp(V^*) is the span of the optimal state bias function, T denotes the number of steps, and mathcal{O} (cdot) omits logarithmic factors. When specialized to concrete AMDP models, our regret bounds are comparable to those established by the existing algorithms designed specifically for these special cases. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first comprehensive theoretical framework capable of handling nearly all AMDPs.

We study a family of distributed stochastic optimization algorithms where gradients are sampled by a token traversing a network of agents in random-walk fashion. Typically, these random-walks are chosen to be Markov chains that asymptotically sample from a desired target distribution, and play a critical role in the convergence of the optimization iterates. In this paper, we take a novel approach by replacing the standard linear Markovian token by one which follows a nonlinear Markov chain - namely the Self-Repellent Radom Walk (SRRW). Defined for any given 'base' Markov chain, the SRRW, parameterized by a positive scalar {\alpha}, is less likely to transition to states that were highly visited in the past, thus the name. In the context of MCMC sampling on a graph, a recent breakthrough in Doshi et al. (2023) shows that the SRRW achieves O(1/{\alpha}) decrease in the asymptotic variance for sampling. We propose the use of a 'generalized' version of the SRRW to drive token algorithms for distributed stochastic optimization in the form of stochastic approximation, termed SA-SRRW. We prove that the optimization iterate errors of the resulting SA-SRRW converge to zero almost surely and prove a central limit theorem, deriving the explicit form of the resulting asymptotic covariance matrix corresponding to iterate errors. This asymptotic covariance is always smaller than that of an algorithm driven by the base Markov chain and decreases at rate O(1/{\alpha}^2) - the performance benefit of using SRRW thereby amplified in the stochastic optimization context. Empirical results support our theoretical findings.

Self-consistency (SC), a widely used decoding strategy for chain-of-thought reasoning, shows significant gains across various multi-step reasoning tasks but comes with a high cost due to multiple sampling with the preset size. Its variants, Adaptive self-consistency (ASC) and Early-stopping self-consistency (ESC), dynamically adjust the number of samples based on the posterior distribution of a set of pre-samples, reducing the cost of SC with minimal impact on performance. Both methods, however, do not exploit the prior information about question difficulty. It often results in unnecessary repeated sampling for easy questions that could be accurately answered with just one attempt, wasting resources. To tackle this problem, we propose Difficulty-Adaptive Self-Consistency (DSC), which leverages the difficulty information from both prior and posterior perspectives to adaptively allocate inference resources, further reducing the cost of SC. To demonstrate the effectiveness of DSC, we conduct extensive experiments on three popular categories of reasoning tasks: arithmetic, commonsense and symbolic reasoning on six benchmarks. The empirical results show that DSC consistently surpasses the strong baseline ASC and ESC in terms of costs by a significant margin, while attaining comparable performances.

Combinatorial Optimization underpins many real-world applications and yet, designing performant algorithms to solve these complex, typically NP-hard, problems remains a significant research challenge. Reinforcement Learning (RL) provides a versatile framework for designing heuristics across a broad spectrum of problem domains. However, despite notable progress, RL has not yet supplanted industrial solvers as the go-to solution. Current approaches emphasize pre-training heuristics that construct solutions but often rely on search procedures with limited variance, such as stochastically sampling numerous solutions from a single policy or employing computationally expensive fine-tuning of the policy on individual problem instances. Building on the intuition that performant search at inference time should be anticipated during pre-training, we propose COMPASS, a novel RL approach that parameterizes a distribution of diverse and specialized policies conditioned on a continuous latent space. We evaluate COMPASS across three canonical problems - Travelling Salesman, Capacitated Vehicle Routing, and Job-Shop Scheduling - and demonstrate that our search strategy (i) outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on 11 standard benchmarking tasks and (ii) generalizes better, surpassing all other approaches on a set of 18 procedurally transformed instance distributions.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We examine a simple stochastic strategy for adapting well-known single-point acquisition functions to allow batch active learning. Unlike acquiring the top-K points from the pool set, score- or rank-based sampling takes into account that acquisition scores change as new data are acquired. This simple strategy for adapting standard single-sample acquisition strategies can even perform just as well as compute-intensive state-of-the-art batch acquisition functions, like BatchBALD or BADGE, while using orders of magnitude less compute. In addition to providing a practical option for machine learning practitioners, the surprising success of the proposed method in a wide range of experimental settings raises a difficult question for the field: when are these expensive batch acquisition methods pulling their weight?

Training multiple tasks jointly in one deep network yields reduced latency during inference and better performance over the single-task counterpart by sharing certain layers of a network. However, over-sharing a network could erroneously enforce over-generalization, causing negative knowledge transfer across tasks. Prior works rely on human intuition or pre-computed task relatedness scores for ad hoc branching structures. They provide sub-optimal end results and often require huge efforts for the trial-and-error process. In this work, we present an automated multi-task learning algorithm that learns where to share or branch within a network, designing an effective network topology that is directly optimized for multiple objectives across tasks. Specifically, we propose a novel tree-structured design space that casts a tree branching operation as a gumbel-softmax sampling procedure. This enables differentiable network splitting that is end-to-end trainable. We validate the proposed method on controlled synthetic data, CelebA, and Taskonomy.

We introduce DeepSeek-Prover-V1.5, an open-source language model designed for theorem proving in Lean 4, which enhances DeepSeek-Prover-V1 by optimizing both training and inference processes. Pre-trained on DeepSeekMath-Base with specialization in formal mathematical languages, the model undergoes supervised fine-tuning using an enhanced formal theorem proving dataset derived from DeepSeek-Prover-V1. Further refinement is achieved through reinforcement learning from proof assistant feedback (RLPAF). Beyond the single-pass whole-proof generation approach of DeepSeek-Prover-V1, we propose RMaxTS, a variant of Monte-Carlo tree search that employs an intrinsic-reward-driven exploration strategy to generate diverse proof paths. DeepSeek-Prover-V1.5 demonstrates significant improvements over DeepSeek-Prover-V1, achieving new state-of-the-art results on the test set of the high school level miniF2F benchmark (63.5%) and the undergraduate level ProofNet benchmark (25.3%).

We consider a contextual combinatorial bandit problem where in each round a learning agent selects a subset of arms and receives feedback on the selected arms according to their scores. The score of an arm is an unknown function of the arm's feature. Approximating this unknown score function with deep neural networks, we propose algorithms: Combinatorial Neural UCB (CN-UCB) and Combinatorial Neural Thompson Sampling (CN-TS). We prove that CN-UCB achieves mathcal{O}(d T) or mathcal{O}(tilde{d T K}) regret, where d is the effective dimension of a neural tangent kernel matrix, K is the size of a subset of arms, and T is the time horizon. For CN-TS, we adapt an optimistic sampling technique to ensure the optimism of the sampled combinatorial action, achieving a worst-case (frequentist) regret of mathcal{O}(d TK). To the best of our knowledge, these are the first combinatorial neural bandit algorithms with regret performance guarantees. In particular, CN-TS is the first Thompson sampling algorithm with the worst-case regret guarantees for the general contextual combinatorial bandit problem. The numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performances of our proposed algorithms.

Can a pretrained neural network adapt its architecture to different inputs without any finetuning? Do we need all layers for simple tasks, and are they adequate for challenging tasks? We found that the layers of a pretrained large language model (LLM) can be manipulated as separate modules to build a better and even shallower model customized for each test sample. In particular, each layer from the pretrained model can be skipped/pruned or repeated multiple times as recurrent neural networks (RNN), and stacked with others in arbitrary orders, yielding a chain-of-layers (CoLa) per sample. This compositional space greatly expands the scope of existing works on looped/recurrent pretrained modules, layer pruning, or early-exit networks. We develop a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) protocol to explore and identify the optimal CoLa for each sample from math and commonsense reasoning benchmarks. Compared to a static model of a fixed depth, CoLa allows shortcut paths (fast thinking), recurrence of the same layer(s) (slow thinking), and combining both, offering more flexible, dynamic architectures for different inputs. We conduct an extensive analysis of the MCTS-optimized CoLa, which leads to two key findings: (1) For >75% of samples with correct predictions by the original LLM, we can find shorter CoLa, suggesting a large space for improving inference efficiency; (2) For >60% of samples with originally incorrect predictions, we can identify CoLa achieving correct predictions, suggesting a large space of performance enhancement. Our results highlight the shortcomings of using a fixed architecture of pre-trained LLMs for inference on different samples and pave the way to unlock the generalization power of test-time depth adaptation.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have exhibited the capacity of enhancing reasoning performance via internal test-time scaling. Building upon this, a promising direction is to further scale test-time compute to unlock even greater reasoning capabilities. However, as we push these scaling boundaries, systematically understanding the practical limits and achieving optimal resource allocation becomes a critical challenge. In this paper, we investigate the scaling Pareto of test-time scaling and introduce the Test-Time Scaling Performance Model (TTSPM). We theoretically analyze two fundamental paradigms for such extended scaling, parallel scaling and sequential scaling, from a probabilistic modeling perspective. Our primary contribution is the derivation of the saturation point on the scaling budget for both strategies, identifying thresholds beyond which additional computation yields diminishing returns. Remarkably, despite their distinct mechanisms, both paradigms converge to a unified mathematical structure in their upper bounds. We empirically validate our theoretical findings on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA, demonstrating the practical utility of these bounds for test-time resource allocation. We hope that this work provides insights into the cost-benefit trade-offs of test-time scaling, guiding the development of more resource-efficient inference strategies for large reasoning models.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated powerful decision-making and planning capabilities in solving complicated real-world problems. LLM-based autonomous agents can interact with diverse tools (e.g., functional APIs) and generate solution plans that execute a series of API function calls in a step-by-step manner. The multitude of candidate API function calls significantly expands the action space, amplifying the critical need for efficient action space navigation. However, existing methods either struggle with unidirectional exploration in expansive action spaces, trapped into a locally optimal solution, or suffer from exhaustively traversing all potential actions, causing inefficient navigation. To address these issues, we propose ToolChain*, an efficient tree search-based planning algorithm for LLM-based agents. It formulates the entire action space as a decision tree, where each node represents a possible API function call involved in a solution plan. By incorporating the A* search algorithm with task-specific cost function design, it efficiently prunes high-cost branches that may involve incorrect actions, identifying the most low-cost valid path as the solution. Extensive experiments on multiple tool-use and reasoning tasks demonstrate that ToolChain* efficiently balances exploration and exploitation within an expansive action space. It outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on planning and reasoning tasks by 3.1% and 3.5% on average while requiring 7.35x and 2.31x less time, respectively.

In this paper, we propose an enhanced approach for Rapid Exploration and eXploitation for AI Agents called REX. Existing AutoGPT-style techniques have inherent limitations, such as a heavy reliance on precise descriptions for decision-making, and the lack of a systematic approach to leverage try-and-fail procedures akin to traditional Reinforcement Learning (RL). REX introduces an additional layer of rewards and integrates concepts similar to Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) scores, leading to more robust and efficient AI agent performance. This approach has the advantage of enabling the utilization of offline behaviors from logs and allowing seamless integration with existing foundation models while it does not require any model fine-tuning. Through comparative analysis with existing methods such as Chain-of-Thoughts(CoT) and Reasoning viA Planning(RAP), REX-based methods demonstrate comparable performance and, in certain cases, even surpass the results achieved by these existing techniques. Notably, REX-based methods exhibit remarkable reductions in execution time, enhancing their practical applicability across a diverse set of scenarios.

We present a general convergent class of reinforcement learning algorithms that is founded on two distinct principles: (1) mapping value estimates to a different space using arbitrary functions from a broad class, and (2) linearly decomposing the reward signal into multiple channels. The first principle enables incorporating specific properties into the value estimator that can enhance learning. The second principle, on the other hand, allows for the value function to be represented as a composition of multiple utility functions. This can be leveraged for various purposes, e.g. dealing with highly varying reward scales, incorporating a priori knowledge about the sources of reward, and ensemble learning. Combining the two principles yields a general blueprint for instantiating convergent algorithms by orchestrating diverse mapping functions over multiple reward channels. This blueprint generalizes and subsumes algorithms such as Q-Learning, Log Q-Learning, and Q-Decomposition. In addition, our convergence proof for this general class relaxes certain required assumptions in some of these algorithms. Based on our theory, we discuss several interesting configurations as special cases. Finally, to illustrate the potential of the design space that our theory opens up, we instantiate a particular algorithm and evaluate its performance on the Atari suite.

We study the autonomous exploration (AX) problem proposed by Lim & Auer (2012). In this setting, the objective is to discover a set of epsilon-optimal policies reaching a set S_L^{rightarrow} of incrementally L-controllable states. We introduce a novel layered decomposition of the set of incrementally L-controllable states that is based on the iterative application of a state-expansion operator. We leverage these results to design Layered Autonomous Exploration (LAE), a novel algorithm for AX that attains a sample complexity of mathcal{O}(LS^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)}Gamma_{L(1+epsilon)} A ln^{12}(S^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)})/epsilon^2), where S^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)} is the number of states that are incrementally L(1+epsilon)-controllable, A is the number of actions, and Gamma_{L(1+epsilon)} is the branching factor of the transitions over such states. LAE improves over the algorithm of Tarbouriech et al. (2020a) by a factor of L^2 and it is the first algorithm for AX that works in a countably-infinite state space. Moreover, we show that, under a certain identifiability assumption, LAE achieves minimax-optimal sample complexity of mathcal{O}(LS^{rightarrow}_{L}Aln^{12}(S^{rightarrow}_{L})/epsilon^2), outperforming existing algorithms and matching for the first time the lower bound proved by Cai et al. (2022) up to logarithmic factors.

In recent years, masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising alternative approach for generative modeling over discrete domains. Compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), MDMs trade off complexity at training time with flexibility at inference time. At training time, they must learn to solve an exponentially large number of infilling problems, but at inference time, they can decode tokens in essentially arbitrary order. In this work, we closely examine these two competing effects. On the training front, we theoretically and empirically demonstrate that MDMs indeed train on computationally intractable subproblems compared to their autoregressive counterparts. On the inference front, we show that a suitable strategy for adaptively choosing the token decoding order significantly enhances the capabilities of MDMs, allowing them to sidestep hard subproblems. On logic puzzles like Sudoku, we show that adaptive inference can boost solving accuracy in pretrained MDMs from <7% to approx 90%, even outperforming ARMs with 7times as many parameters and that were explicitly trained via teacher forcing to learn the right order of decoding.

The remarkable performance of the o1 model in complex reasoning demonstrates that test-time computing scaling can further unlock the model's potential, enabling powerful System-2 thinking. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive surveys for test-time computing scaling. We trace the concept of test-time computing back to System-1 models. In System-1 models, test-time computing addresses distribution shifts and improves robustness and generalization through parameter updating, input modification, representation editing, and output calibration. In System-2 models, it enhances the model's reasoning ability to solve complex problems through repeated sampling, self-correction, and tree search. We organize this survey according to the trend of System-1 to System-2 thinking, highlighting the key role of test-time computing in the transition from System-1 models to weak System-2 models, and then to strong System-2 models. We also point out a few possible future directions.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency issue, we consider an augmented state space and an auxiliary variable and recast the problem as a two-state optimization problem. We propose a customized Actor-Critic algorithm and establish some theoretical approximation guarantees. A key theoretical contribution is that our results do not require the Markov decision process to be continuous. Additionally, we propose an auxiliary variable sampling method inspired by the alternating minimization algorithm, which is convergent under certain conditions. We validate our approach in simulation experiments with a financial application in statistical arbitrage trading, demonstrating the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Levin Tree Search (LTS) is a search algorithm that makes use of a policy (a probability distribution over actions) and comes with a theoretical guarantee on the number of expansions before reaching a goal node, depending on the quality of the policy. This guarantee can be used as a loss function, which we call the LTS loss, to optimize neural networks representing the policy (LTS+NN). In this work we show that the neural network can be substituted with parameterized context models originating from the online compression literature (LTS+CM). We show that the LTS loss is convex under this new model, which allows for using standard convex optimization tools, and obtain convergence guarantees to the optimal parameters in an online setting for a given set of solution trajectories -- guarantees that cannot be provided for neural networks. The new LTS+CM algorithm compares favorably against LTS+NN on several benchmarks: Sokoban (Boxoban), The Witness, and the 24-Sliding Tile puzzle (STP). The difference is particularly large on STP, where LTS+NN fails to solve most of the test instances while LTS+CM solves each test instance in a fraction of a second. Furthermore, we show that LTS+CM is able to learn a policy that solves the Rubik's cube in only a few hundred expansions, which considerably improves upon previous machine learning techniques.

Efficiently tackling combinatorial reasoning problems, particularly the notorious NP-hard tasks, remains a significant challenge for AI research. Recent efforts have sought to enhance planning by incorporating hierarchical high-level search strategies, known as subgoal methods. While promising, their performance against traditional low-level planners is inconsistent, raising questions about their application contexts. In this study, we conduct an in-depth exploration of subgoal-planning methods for combinatorial reasoning. We identify the attributes pivotal for leveraging the advantages of high-level search: hard-to-learn value functions, complex action spaces, presence of dead ends in the environment, or using data collected from diverse experts. We propose a consistent evaluation methodology to achieve meaningful comparisons between methods and reevaluate the state-of-the-art algorithms.

In this paper, we present a new MTL framework that searches for structures optimized for multiple tasks with diverse graph topologies and shares features among tasks. We design a restricted DAG-based central network with read-in/read-out layers to build topologically diverse task-adaptive structures while limiting search space and time. We search for a single optimized network that serves as multiple task adaptive sub-networks using our three-stage training process. To make the network compact and discretized, we propose a flow-based reduction algorithm and a squeeze loss used in the training process. We evaluate our optimized network on various public MTL datasets and show ours achieves state-of-the-art performance. An extensive ablation study experimentally validates the effectiveness of the sub-module and schemes in our framework.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

Ensuring the safety and harmlessness of Large Language Models (LLMs) has become equally critical as their performance in applications. However, existing safety alignment methods typically suffer from safety-performance trade-offs and the susceptibility to jailbreak attacks, primarily due to their reliance on direct refusals for malicious queries. In this paper, we propose STAIR, a novel framework that integrates SafeTy Alignment with Itrospective Reasoning. We enable LLMs to identify safety risks through step-by-step analysis by self-improving chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning with safety awareness. STAIR first equips the model with a structured reasoning capability and then advances safety alignment via iterative preference optimization on step-level reasoning data generated using our newly proposed Safety-Informed Monte Carlo Tree Search (SI-MCTS). We further train a process reward model on this data to guide test-time searches for improved responses. Extensive experiments show that STAIR effectively mitigates harmful outputs while better preserving helpfulness, compared to instinctive alignment strategies. With test-time scaling, STAIR achieves a safety performance comparable to Claude-3.5 against popular jailbreak attacks. Relevant resources in this work are available at https://github.com/thu-ml/STAIR.

Increasing test-time computation has emerged as a promising direction for improving language model performance, particularly in scenarios where model finetuning is impractical or impossible due to computational constraints or private model weights. However, existing test-time search methods using a reward model (RM) often degrade in quality as compute scales, due to the over-optimization of what are inherently imperfect reward proxies. We introduce QAlign, a new test-time alignment approach. As we scale test-time compute, QAlign converges to sampling from the optimal aligned distribution for each individual prompt. By adopting recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo for text generation, our method enables better-aligned outputs without modifying the underlying model or even requiring logit access. We demonstrate the effectiveness of QAlign on mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K and GSM-Symbolic) using a task-specific RM, showing consistent improvements over existing test-time compute methods like best-of-n and majority voting. Furthermore, when applied with more realistic RMs trained on the Tulu 3 preference dataset, QAlign outperforms direct preference optimization (DPO), best-of-n, majority voting, and weighted majority voting on a diverse range of datasets (GSM8K, MATH500, IFEval, MMLU-Redux, and TruthfulQA). A practical solution to aligning language models at test time using additional computation without degradation, our approach expands the limits of the capability that can be obtained from off-the-shelf language models without further training.

We introduce RL4CO, an extensive reinforcement learning (RL) for combinatorial optimization (CO) benchmark. RL4CO employs state-of-the-art software libraries as well as best practices in implementation, such as modularity and configuration management, to be efficient and easily modifiable by researchers for adaptations of neural network architecture, environments, and algorithms. Contrary to the existing focus on specific tasks like the traveling salesman problem (TSP) for performance assessment, we underline the importance of scalability and generalization capabilities for diverse optimization tasks. We also systematically benchmark sample efficiency, zero-shot generalization, and adaptability to changes in data distributions of various models. Our experiments show that some recent state-of-the-art methods fall behind their predecessors when evaluated using these new metrics, suggesting the necessity for a more balanced view of the performance of neural CO solvers. We hope RL4CO will encourage the exploration of novel solutions to complex real-world tasks, allowing to compare with existing methods through a standardized interface that decouples the science from the software engineering. We make our library publicly available at https://github.com/kaist-silab/rl4co.

The recent detection of nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds (SGWBs) by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) promises unique insights into astrophysical and cosmological origins. However, traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches become prohibitively expensive for large datasets. We employ a normalizing flow (NF)-based machine learning framework to accelerate Bayesian inference in PTA analyses. For the first time, we perform Bayesian model comparison across SGWB source models in the framework of machine learning by training NF architectures on the PTA dataset (NANOGrav 15-year) and enabling direct evidence estimation via learned harmonic mean estimators. Our examples include 10 conventional SGWB source models such as supermassive black hole binaries, power-law spectrum, cosmic strings, domain walls, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, and dual scenario/inflationary gravitational wave. Our approach jointly infers 20 red noise parameters and 2 SGWB parameters per model in sim 20\,hours (including training), compared to sim 10\,days with MCMC. Critically, the NF method preserves rigorous model selection accuracy, with small Hellinger distances (lesssim 0.3) relative to MCMC posteriors, and reproduces MCMC-based Bayes factors across all tested scenarios. This scalable technique for SGWB source comparison will be essential for future PTA expansions and next-generation arrays such as the SKA, offering orders-of-magnitude efficiency gains without sacrificing physical interpretability.

This work proposes a simple yet effective sampling framework for combinatorial optimization (CO). Our method builds on discrete Langevin dynamics (LD), an efficient gradient-guided generative paradigm. However, we observe that directly applying LD often leads to limited exploration. To overcome this limitation, we propose the Regularized Langevin Dynamics (RLD), which enforces an expected distance between the sampled and current solutions, effectively avoiding local minima. We develop two CO solvers on top of RLD, one based on simulated annealing (SA), and the other one based on neural network (NN). Empirical results on three classic CO problems demonstrate that both of our methods can achieve comparable or better performance against the previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) SA- and NN-based solvers. In particular, our SA algorithm reduces the runtime of the previous SOTA SA method by up to 80\%, while achieving equal or superior performance. In summary, RLD offers a promising framework for enhancing both traditional heuristics and NN models to solve CO problems. Our code is available at https://github.com/Shengyu-Feng/RLD4CO.

We consider solving equality-constrained nonlinear, nonconvex optimization problems. This class of problems appears widely in a variety of applications in machine learning and engineering, ranging from constrained deep neural networks, to optimal control, to PDE-constrained optimization. We develop an adaptive inexact Newton method for this problem class. In each iteration, we solve the Lagrangian Newton system inexactly via a randomized iterative sketching solver, and select a suitable stepsize by performing line search on an exact augmented Lagrangian merit function. The randomized solvers have advantages over deterministic linear system solvers by significantly reducing per-iteration flops complexity and storage cost, when equipped with suitable sketching matrices. Our method adaptively controls the accuracy of the randomized solver and the penalty parameters of the exact augmented Lagrangian, to ensure that the inexact Newton direction is a descent direction of the exact augmented Lagrangian. This allows us to establish a global almost sure convergence. We also show that a unit stepsize is admissible locally, so that our method exhibits a local linear convergence. Furthermore, we prove that the linear convergence can be strengthened to superlinear convergence if we gradually sharpen the adaptive accuracy condition on the randomized solver. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method on benchmark nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set, constrained logistic regression with data from LIBSVM, and a PDE-constrained problem.

We introduce a new function-preserving transformation for efficient neural architecture search. This network transformation allows reusing previously trained networks and existing successful architectures that improves sample efficiency. We aim to address the limitation of current network transformation operations that can only perform layer-level architecture modifications, such as adding (pruning) filters or inserting (removing) a layer, which fails to change the topology of connection paths. Our proposed path-level transformation operations enable the meta-controller to modify the path topology of the given network while keeping the merits of reusing weights, and thus allow efficiently designing effective structures with complex path topologies like Inception models. We further propose a bidirectional tree-structured reinforcement learning meta-controller to explore a simple yet highly expressive tree-structured architecture space that can be viewed as a generalization of multi-branch architectures. We experimented on the image classification datasets with limited computational resources (about 200 GPU-hours), where we observed improved parameter efficiency and better test results (97.70% test accuracy on CIFAR-10 with 14.3M parameters and 74.6% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet in the mobile setting), demonstrating the effectiveness and transferability of our designed architectures.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capability in reasoning and planning when integrated with tree-search-based prompting methods. However, since these methods ignore the previous search experiences, they often make the same mistakes in the search process. To address this issue, we introduce Reflection on search Trees (RoT), an LLM reflection framework designed to improve the performance of tree-search-based prompting methods. It uses a strong LLM to summarize guidelines from previous tree search experiences to enhance the ability of a weak LLM. The guidelines are instructions about solving this task through tree search which can prevent the weak LLMs from making similar mistakes in the past search process. In addition, we proposed a novel state selection method, which identifies the critical information from historical search processes to help RoT generate more specific and meaningful guidelines. In our extensive experiments, we find that RoT significantly improves the performance of LLMs in reasoning or planning tasks with various tree-search-based prompting methods (e.g., BFS and MCTS). Non-tree-search-based prompting methods such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) can also benefit from RoT guidelines since RoT can provide task-specific knowledge collected from the search experience.

Currently OpenAI o1 has sparked a surge of interest in the study of large reasoning models (LRM). Building on this momentum, Marco-o1 not only focuses on disciplines with standard answers, such as mathematics, physics, and coding -- which are well-suited for reinforcement learning (RL) -- but also places greater emphasis on open-ended resolutions. We aim to address the question: "Can the o1 model effectively generalize to broader domains where clear standards are absent and rewards are challenging to quantify?" Marco-o1 is powered by Chain-of-Thought (CoT) fine-tuning, Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), reflection mechanisms, and innovative reasoning strategies -- optimized for complex real-world problem-solving tasks.

Learning heuristics for vehicle routing problems (VRPs) has gained much attention due to the less reliance on hand-crafted rules. However, existing methods are typically trained and tested on the same task with a fixed size and distribution (of nodes), and hence suffer from limited generalization performance. This paper studies a challenging yet realistic setting, which considers generalization across both size and distribution in VRPs. We propose a generic meta-learning framework, which enables effective training of an initialized model with the capability of fast adaptation to new tasks during inference. We further develop a simple yet efficient approximation method to reduce the training overhead. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and benchmark instances of the traveling salesman problem (TSP) and capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The code is available at: https://github.com/RoyalSkye/Omni-VRP.

A modified LAB algorithm is introduced in this paper. It builds upon the original LAB algorithm (Reddy et al. 2023), which is a socio-inspired algorithm that models competitive and learning behaviours within a group, establishing hierarchical roles. The proposed algorithm incorporates the roulette wheel approach and a reduction factor introducing inter-group competition and iteratively narrowing down the sample space. The algorithm is validated by solving the benchmark test problems from CEC 2005 and CEC 2017. The solutions are validated using standard statistical tests such as two-sided and pairwise signed rank Wilcoxon test and Friedman rank test. The algorithm exhibited improved and superior robustness as well as search space exploration capabilities. Furthermore, a Clustering-Based Search Space Reduction (C-SSR) method is proposed, making the algorithm capable to solve constrained problems. The C-SSR method enables the algorithm to identify clusters of feasible regions, satisfying the constraints and contributing to achieve the optimal solution. This method demonstrates its effectiveness as a potential alternative to traditional constraint handling techniques. The results obtained using the Modified LAB algorithm are then compared with those achieved by other recent metaheuristic algorithms.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Recently, reward-conditioned reinforcement learning (RCRL) has gained popularity due to its simplicity, flexibility, and off-policy nature. However, we will show that current RCRL approaches are fundamentally limited and fail to address two critical challenges of RCRL -- improving generalization on high reward-to-go (RTG) inputs, and avoiding out-of-distribution (OOD) RTG queries during testing time. To address these challenges when training vanilla RCRL architectures, we propose Bayesian Reparameterized RCRL (BR-RCRL), a novel set of inductive biases for RCRL inspired by Bayes' theorem. BR-RCRL removes a core obstacle preventing vanilla RCRL from generalizing on high RTG inputs -- a tendency that the model treats different RTG inputs as independent values, which we term ``RTG Independence". BR-RCRL also allows us to design an accompanying adaptive inference method, which maximizes total returns while avoiding OOD queries that yield unpredictable behaviors in vanilla RCRL methods. We show that BR-RCRL achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Gym-Mujoco and Atari offline RL benchmarks, improving upon vanilla RCRL by up to 11%.

Model-Free Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms either learn how to map states to expected rewards or search for policies that can maximize a certain performance function. Model-Based algorithms instead, aim to learn an approximation of the underlying model of the RL environment and then use it in combination with planning algorithms. Upside-Down Reinforcement Learning (UDRL) is a novel learning paradigm that aims to learn how to predict actions from states and desired commands. This task is formulated as a Supervised Learning problem and has successfully been tackled by Neural Networks (NNs). In this paper, we investigate whether function approximation algorithms other than NNs can also be used within a UDRL framework. Our experiments, performed over several popular optimal control benchmarks, show that tree-based methods like Random Forests and Extremely Randomized Trees can perform just as well as NNs with the significant benefit of resulting in policies that are inherently more interpretable than NNs, therefore paving the way for more transparent, safe, and robust RL.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) methodologies enforce constraints on the policy to adhere closely to the behavior policy, thereby stabilizing value learning and mitigating the selection of out-of-distribution (OOD) actions during test time. Conventional approaches apply identical constraints for both value learning and test time inference. However, our findings indicate that the constraints suitable for value estimation may in fact be excessively restrictive for action selection during test time. To address this issue, we propose a Mildly Constrained Evaluation Policy (MCEP) for test time inference with a more constrained target policy for value estimation. Since the target policy has been adopted in various prior approaches, MCEP can be seamlessly integrated with them as a plug-in. We instantiate MCEP based on TD3-BC [Fujimoto and Gu, 2021] and AWAC [Nair et al., 2020] algorithms. The empirical results on MuJoCo locomotion tasks show that the MCEP significantly outperforms the target policy and achieves competitive results to state-of-the-art offline RL methods. The codes are open-sourced at https://github.com/egg-west/MCEP.git.

General function approximation is a powerful tool to handle large state and action spaces in a broad range of reinforcement learning (RL) scenarios. However, theoretical understanding of non-stationary MDPs with general function approximation is still limited. In this paper, we make the first such an attempt. We first propose a new complexity metric called dynamic Bellman Eluder (DBE) dimension for non-stationary MDPs, which subsumes majority of existing tractable RL problems in static MDPs as well as non-stationary MDPs. Based on the proposed complexity metric, we propose a novel confidence-set based model-free algorithm called SW-OPEA, which features a sliding window mechanism and a new confidence set design for non-stationary MDPs. We then establish an upper bound on the dynamic regret for the proposed algorithm, and show that SW-OPEA is provably efficient as long as the variation budget is not significantly large. We further demonstrate via examples of non-stationary linear and tabular MDPs that our algorithm performs better in small variation budget scenario than the existing UCB-type algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first dynamic regret analysis in non-stationary MDPs with general function approximation.

A popular approach for sequential decision-making is to perform simulator-based search guided with Machine Learning (ML) methods like policy learning. On the other hand, model-relaxation heuristics can guide the search effectively if a full declarative model is available. In this work, we consider how a practitioner can improve ML-based black-box planning on settings where a complete symbolic model is not available. We show that specifying an incomplete STRIPS model that describes only part of the problem enables the use of relaxation heuristics. Our findings on several planning domains suggest that this is an effective way to improve ML-based black-box planning beyond collecting more data or tuning ML architectures.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

Diffusion models have shown promising generative capabilities across diverse domains, yet aligning their outputs with desired reward functions remains a challenge, particularly in cases where reward functions are non-differentiable. Some gradient-free guidance methods have been developed, but they often struggle to achieve optimal inference-time alignment. In this work, we newly frame inference-time alignment in diffusion as a search problem and propose Dynamic Search for Diffusion (DSearch), which subsamples from denoising processes and approximates intermediate node rewards. It also dynamically adjusts beam width and tree expansion to efficiently explore high-reward generations. To refine intermediate decisions, DSearch incorporates adaptive scheduling based on noise levels and a lookahead heuristic function. We validate DSearch across multiple domains, including biological sequence design, molecular optimization, and image generation, demonstrating superior reward optimization compared to existing approaches.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

In this paper, we propose a simple and efficient method for value model training on long-context reasoning traces. Compared to existing process reward models (PRMs), our method does not require a fine-grained notion of "step," which is difficult to define for long-context reasoning models. By collecting a dataset of 2.5 million reasoning traces, we train a 1.5B token-level value model and apply it to DeepSeek models for improved performance with test-time compute scaling. We find that block-wise value-guided search (VGS) with a final weighted majority vote achieves better test-time scaling than standard methods such as majority voting or best-of-n. With an inference budget of 64 generations, VGS with DeepSeek-R1-Distill-1.5B achieves an average accuracy of 45.7% across four competition math benchmarks (AIME 2024 & 2025, HMMT Feb 2024 & 2025), reaching parity with o3-mini-medium. Moreover, VGS significantly reduces the inference FLOPs required to achieve the same performance of majority voting. Our dataset, model and codebase are open-sourced.

Stochastic gradient descent method and its variants constitute the core optimization algorithms that achieve good convergence rates for solving machine learning problems. These rates are obtained especially when these algorithms are fine-tuned for the application at hand. Although this tuning process can require large computational costs, recent work has shown that these costs can be reduced by line search methods that iteratively adjust the stepsize. We propose an alternative approach to stochastic line search by using a new algorithm based on forward step model building. This model building step incorporates second-order information that allows adjusting not only the stepsize but also the search direction. Noting that deep learning model parameters come in groups (layers of tensors), our method builds its model and calculates a new step for each parameter group. This novel diagonalization approach makes the selected step lengths adaptive. We provide convergence rate analysis, and experimentally show that the proposed algorithm achieves faster convergence and better generalization in well-known test problems. More precisely, SMB requires less tuning, and shows comparable performance to other adaptive methods.

Software engineers operating in complex and dynamic environments must continuously adapt to evolving requirements, learn iteratively from experience, and reconsider their approaches based on new insights. However, current large language model (LLM)-based software agents often rely on rigid processes and tend to repeat ineffective actions without the capacity to evaluate their performance or adapt their strategies over time. To address these challenges, we propose SWE-Search, a multi-agent framework that integrates Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with a self-improvement mechanism to enhance software agents' performance on repository-level software tasks. SWE-Search extends traditional MCTS by incorporating a hybrid value function that leverages LLMs for both numerical value estimation and qualitative evaluation. This enables self-feedback loops where agents iteratively refine their strategies based on both quantitative numerical evaluations and qualitative natural language assessments of pursued trajectories. The framework includes a SWE-Agent for adaptive exploration, a Value Agent for iterative feedback, and a Discriminator Agent that facilitates multi-agent debate for collaborative decision-making. Applied to the SWE-bench benchmark, our approach demonstrates a 23% relative improvement in performance across five models compared to standard open-source agents without MCTS. Our analysis reveals how performance scales with increased search depth and identifies key factors that facilitate effective self-evaluation in software agents. This work highlights the potential of self-evaluation driven search techniques to enhance agent reasoning and planning in complex, dynamic software engineering environments.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.