Daily Papers

Human cognition excels at transcending sensory input and forming latent representations that structure our understanding of the world. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce chain-of-thought reasoning, they lack a principled framework to capture latent structures and model uncertainty, especially in compositional reasoning tasks. We propose Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (vPGM), a Bayesian prompting framework that guides LLMs to simulate key principles of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) in natural language. Unlike many traditional probabilistic methods requiring substantial domain expertise or specialized training, vPGM bypasses expert-driven model design, making it well-suited for scenarios with limited assumptions or scarce data. We evaluated our model on several compositional reasoning tasks, both close-ended and open-ended. Our results indicate that the model effectively enhances confidence calibration and text generation quality.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have marked a significant advancement in the field of natural language processing, demonstrating exceptional capabilities in reasoning, tool usage, and memory. As their applications extend into multi-agent environments, a need has arisen for a comprehensive evaluation framework that captures their abilities in reasoning, planning, collaboration, and more. This work introduces a novel benchmarking framework specifically tailored to assess LLMs within multi-agent settings, providing quantitative metrics to evaluate their judgment, reasoning, deception, self-awareness, cooperation, coordination, and rationality. We utilize games such as Chameleon and Undercover, alongside game theory scenarios like Cost Sharing, Multi-player Prisoner's Dilemma, and Public Good, to create diverse testing environments. Our framework is fortified with the Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (PGM) method, enhancing the LLMs' capabilities in navigating complex social and cognitive dimensions. The benchmark evaluates seven multi-agent systems powered by different LLMs, quantitatively highlighting a significant capability gap over threefold between the strongest, GPT-4, and the weakest, Llama-2-70B. It also confirms that our PGM enhancement boosts the inherent abilities of all selected models by 50% on average. Our codes are released here https://github.com/cathyxl/MAgIC.

We introduce Graph-Induced Sum-Product Networks (GSPNs), a new probabilistic framework for graph representation learning that can tractably answer probabilistic queries. Inspired by the computational trees induced by vertices in the context of message-passing neural networks, we build hierarchies of sum-product networks (SPNs) where the parameters of a parent SPN are learnable transformations of the a-posterior mixing probabilities of its children's sum units. Due to weight sharing and the tree-shaped computation graphs of GSPNs, we obtain the efficiency and efficacy of deep graph networks with the additional advantages of a probabilistic model. We show the model's competitiveness on scarce supervision scenarios, under missing data, and for graph classification in comparison to popular neural models. We complement the experiments with qualitative analyses on hyper-parameters and the model's ability to answer probabilistic queries.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Message-passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) emerged as powerful tools for processing graph-structured input. However, they operate on a fixed input graph structure, ignoring potential noise and missing information. Furthermore, their local aggregation mechanism can lead to problems such as over-squashing and limited expressive power in capturing relevant graph structures. Existing solutions to these challenges have primarily relied on heuristic methods, often disregarding the underlying data distribution. Hence, devising principled approaches for learning to infer graph structures relevant to the given prediction task remains an open challenge. In this work, leveraging recent progress in exact and differentiable k-subset sampling, we devise probabilistically rewired MPNNs (PR-MPNNs), which learn to add relevant edges while omitting less beneficial ones. For the first time, our theoretical analysis explores how PR-MPNNs enhance expressive power, and we identify precise conditions under which they outperform purely randomized approaches. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach effectively mitigates issues like over-squashing and under-reaching. In addition, on established real-world datasets, our method exhibits competitive or superior predictive performance compared to traditional MPNN models and recent graph transformer architectures.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

Diffusion models, as a novel generative paradigm, have achieved remarkable success in various image generation tasks such as image inpainting, image-to-text translation, and video generation. Graph generation is a crucial computational task on graphs with numerous real-world applications. It aims to learn the distribution of given graphs and then generate new graphs. Given the great success of diffusion models in image generation, increasing efforts have been made to leverage these techniques to advance graph generation in recent years. In this paper, we first provide a comprehensive overview of generative diffusion models on graphs, In particular, we review representative algorithms for three variants of graph diffusion models, i.e., Score Matching with Langevin Dynamics (SMLD), Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM), and Score-based Generative Model (SGM). Then, we summarize the major applications of generative diffusion models on graphs with a specific focus on molecule and protein modeling. Finally, we discuss promising directions in generative diffusion models on graph-structured data. For this survey, we also created a GitHub project website by collecting the supporting resources for generative diffusion models on graphs, at the link: https://github.com/ChengyiLIU-cs/Generative-Diffusion-Models-on-Graphs

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

Existing methods for evaluating graph generative models primarily rely on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) metrics based on graph descriptors. While these metrics can rank generative models, they do not provide an absolute measure of performance. Their values are also highly sensitive to extrinsic parameters, namely kernel and descriptor parametrization, making them incomparable across different graph descriptors. We introduce PolyGraph Discrepancy (PGD), a new evaluation framework that addresses these limitations. It approximates the Jensen-Shannon distance of graph distributions by fitting binary classifiers to distinguish between real and generated graphs, featurized by these descriptors. The data log-likelihood of these classifiers approximates a variational lower bound on the JS distance between the two distributions. Resulting metrics are constrained to the unit interval [0,1] and are comparable across different graph descriptors. We further derive a theoretically grounded summary metric that combines these individual metrics to provide a maximally tight lower bound on the distance for the given descriptors. Thorough experiments demonstrate that PGD provides a more robust and insightful evaluation compared to MMD metrics. The PolyGraph framework for benchmarking graph generative models is made publicly available at https://github.com/BorgwardtLab/polygraph-benchmark.

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

Understanding the world and explaining it with scientific theories is a central aspiration of artificial intelligence research. Proposing theories, designing experiments to test them, and then revising them based on data are fundamental to scientific discovery. Despite the significant promise of LLM-based scientific agents, no benchmarks systematically test LLM's ability to propose scientific models, collect experimental data, and revise them in light of new data. We introduce BoxingGym, a benchmark with 10 environments for systematically evaluating both experimental design (e.g. collecting data to test a scientific theory) and model discovery (e.g. proposing and revising scientific theories). To enable tractable and quantitative evaluation, we implement each environment as a generative probabilistic model with which a scientific agent can run interactive experiments. These probabilistic models are drawn from various real-world scientific domains ranging from psychology to ecology. To quantitatively evaluate a scientific agent's ability to collect informative experimental data, we compute the expected information gain (EIG), an information-theoretic quantity which measures how much an experiment reduces uncertainty about the parameters of a generative model. A good scientific theory is a concise and predictive explanation. Therefore, to quantitatively evaluate model discovery, we ask a scientific agent to explain their model and then assess whether this explanation enables another scientific agent to make reliable predictions about this environment. In addition to this explanation-based evaluation, we compute standard model evaluation metrics such as prediction errors. We find that current LLMs, such as GPT-4o, struggle with both experimental design and model discovery. We find that augmenting the LLM-based agent with an explicit statistical model does not reliably improve these results.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promising potential in graph representation learning. The majority of GNNs define a local message-passing mechanism, propagating information over the graph by stacking multiple layers. These methods, however, are known to suffer from two major limitations: over-squashing and poor capturing of long-range dependencies. Recently, Graph Transformers (GTs) emerged as a powerful alternative to Message-Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs). GTs, however, have quadratic computational cost, lack inductive biases on graph structures, and rely on complex Positional/Structural Encodings (SE/PE). In this paper, we show that while Transformers, complex message-passing, and SE/PE are sufficient for good performance in practice, neither is necessary. Motivated by the recent success of State Space Models (SSMs), such as Mamba, we present Graph Mamba Networks (GMNs), a general framework for a new class of GNNs based on selective SSMs. We discuss and categorize the new challenges when adopting SSMs to graph-structured data, and present four required and one optional steps to design GMNs, where we choose (1) Neighborhood Tokenization, (2) Token Ordering, (3) Architecture of Bidirectional Selective SSM Encoder, (4) Local Encoding, and dispensable (5) PE and SE. We further provide theoretical justification for the power of GMNs. Experiments demonstrate that despite much less computational cost, GMNs attain an outstanding performance in long-range, small-scale, large-scale, and heterophilic benchmark datasets.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at https://github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

Large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4 have emerged as frontrunners, showcasing unparalleled prowess in diverse applications, including answering queries, code generation, and more. Parallelly, graph-structured data, an intrinsic data type, is pervasive in real-world scenarios. Merging the capabilities of LLMs with graph-structured data has been a topic of keen interest. This paper bifurcates such integrations into two predominant categories. The first leverages LLMs for graph learning, where LLMs can not only augment existing graph algorithms but also stand as prediction models for various graph tasks. Conversely, the second category underscores the pivotal role of graphs in advancing LLMs. Mirroring human cognition, we solve complex tasks by adopting graphs in either reasoning or collaboration. Integrating with such structures can significantly boost the performance of LLMs in various complicated tasks. We also discuss and propose open questions for integrating LLMs with graph-structured data for the future direction of the field.

In bipartite networks, community structures are restricted to being disassortative, in that nodes of one type are grouped according to common patterns of connection with nodes of the other type. This makes the stochastic block model (SBM), a highly flexible generative model for networks with block structure, an intuitive choice for bipartite community detection. However, typical formulations of the SBM do not make use of the special structure of bipartite networks. Here we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric formulation of the SBM and a corresponding algorithm to efficiently find communities in bipartite networks which parsimoniously chooses the number of communities. The biSBM improves community detection results over general SBMs when data are noisy, improves the model resolution limit by a factor of 2, and expands our understanding of the complicated optimization landscape associated with community detection tasks. A direct comparison of certain terms of the prior distributions in the biSBM and a related high-resolution hierarchical SBM also reveals a counterintuitive regime of community detection problems, populated by smaller and sparser networks, where nonhierarchical models outperform their more flexible counterpart.

The K-core of a graph is the unique maximum subgraph within which each vertex connects to K or more other vertices. The optimal K-core attack problem asks to delete the minimum number of vertices from the K-core to induce its complete collapse. A hierarchical cycle-tree packing model is introduced here for this challenging combinatorial optimization problem. We convert the temporally long-range correlated K-core pruning dynamics into locally tree-like static patterns and analyze this model through the replica-symmetric cavity method of statistical physics. A set of coarse-grained belief propagation equations are derived to predict single vertex marginal probabilities efficiently. The associated hierarchical cycle-tree guided attack ({\tt hCTGA}) algorithm is able to construct nearly optimal attack solutions for regular random graphs and Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graphs. Our cycle-tree packing model may also be helpful for constructing optimal initial conditions for other irreversible dynamical processes on sparse random graphs.

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted for a variety of tasks with implicit graphical structures, such as planning in robotics, multi-hop question answering or knowledge probing, structured commonsense reasoning, and more. While LLMs have advanced the state-of-the-art on these tasks with structure implications, whether LLMs could explicitly process textual descriptions of graphs and structures, map them to grounded conceptual spaces, and perform structured operations remains underexplored. To this end, we propose NLGraph (Natural Language Graph), a comprehensive benchmark of graph-based problem solving designed in natural language. NLGraph contains 29,370 problems, covering eight graph reasoning tasks with varying complexity from simple tasks such as connectivity and shortest path up to complex problems such as maximum flow and simulating graph neural networks. We evaluate LLMs (GPT-3/4) with various prompting approaches on the NLGraph benchmark and find that 1) language models do demonstrate preliminary graph reasoning abilities, 2) the benefit of advanced prompting and in-context learning diminishes on more complex graph problems, while 3) LLMs are also (un)surprisingly brittle in the face of spurious correlations in graph and problem settings. We then propose Build-a-Graph Prompting and Algorithmic Prompting, two instruction-based approaches to enhance LLMs in solving natural language graph problems. Build-a-Graph and Algorithmic prompting improve the performance of LLMs on NLGraph by 3.07% to 16.85% across multiple tasks and settings, while how to solve the most complicated graph reasoning tasks in our setup with language models remains an open research question. The NLGraph benchmark and evaluation code are available at https://github.com/Arthur-Heng/NLGraph.

Generating graph-structured data requires learning the underlying distribution of graphs. Yet, this is a challenging problem, and the previous graph generative methods either fail to capture the permutation-invariance property of graphs or cannot sufficiently model the complex dependency between nodes and edges, which is crucial for generating real-world graphs such as molecules. To overcome such limitations, we propose a novel score-based generative model for graphs with a continuous-time framework. Specifically, we propose a new graph diffusion process that models the joint distribution of the nodes and edges through a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Then, we derive novel score matching objectives tailored for the proposed diffusion process to estimate the gradient of the joint log-density with respect to each component, and introduce a new solver for the system of SDEs to efficiently sample from the reverse diffusion process. We validate our graph generation method on diverse datasets, on which it either achieves significantly superior or competitive performance to the baselines. Further analysis shows that our method is able to generate molecules that lie close to the training distribution yet do not violate the chemical valency rule, demonstrating the effectiveness of the system of SDEs in modeling the node-edge relationships. Our code is available at https://github.com/harryjo97/GDSS.

The ability to generate SPARQL queries from natural language questions is crucial for ensuring efficient and accurate retrieval of structured data from knowledge graphs (KG). While large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted for SPARQL query generation, they are often susceptible to hallucinations and out-of-distribution errors when producing KG elements like Uniform Resource Identifiers (URIs) based on internal parametric knowledge. This often results in content that appears plausible but is factually incorrect, posing significant challenges for their use in real-world information retrieval (IR) applications. This has led to increased research aimed at detecting and mitigating such errors. In this paper, we introduce PGMR (Post-Generation Memory Retrieval), a modular framework that incorporates a non-parametric memory module to retrieve KG elements and enhance LLM-based SPARQL query generation. Our experimental results indicate that PGMR consistently delivers strong performance across diverse datasets, data distributions, and LLMs. Notably, PGMR significantly mitigates URI hallucinations, nearly eliminating the problem in several scenarios.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling. However, many models are difficult for HMC to solve directly, and often require tricks like model reparameterization. We are motivated by the fact that many of those models could be simplified by marginalization. We propose to use automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL, which substantially improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.

Node features and structural information of a graph are both crucial for semi-supervised node classification problems. A variety of graph neural network (GNN) based approaches have been proposed to tackle these problems, which typically determine output labels through feature aggregation. This can be problematic, as it implies conditional independence of output nodes given hidden representations, despite their direct connections in the graph. To learn the direct influence among output nodes in a graph, we propose the Explicit Pairwise Factorized Graph Neural Network (EPFGNN), which models the whole graph as a partially observed Markov Random Field. It contains explicit pairwise factors to model output-output relations and uses a GNN backbone to model input-output relations. To balance model complexity and expressivity, the pairwise factors have a shared component and a separate scaling coefficient for each edge. We apply the EM algorithm to train our model, and utilize a star-shaped piecewise likelihood for the tractable surrogate objective. We conduct experiments on various datasets, which shows that our model can effectively improve the performance for semi-supervised node classification on graphs.

Score-based generative models (SGMs) are a powerful class of generative models that exhibit remarkable empirical performance. Score-based generative modelling (SGM) consists of a ``noising'' stage, whereby a diffusion is used to gradually add Gaussian noise to data, and a generative model, which entails a ``denoising'' process defined by approximating the time-reversal of the diffusion. Existing SGMs assume that data is supported on a Euclidean space, i.e. a manifold with flat geometry. In many domains such as robotics, geoscience or protein modelling, data is often naturally described by distributions living on Riemannian manifolds and current SGM techniques are not appropriate. We introduce here Riemannian Score-based Generative Models (RSGMs), a class of generative models extending SGMs to Riemannian manifolds. We demonstrate our approach on a variety of manifolds, and in particular with earth and climate science spherical data.

This paper explores the advancements and applications of large-scale models in the medical field, with a particular focus on Medical Large Models (MedLMs). These models, encompassing Large Language Models (LLMs), Vision Models, 3D Large Models, and Multimodal Models, are revolutionizing healthcare by enhancing disease prediction, diagnostic assistance, personalized treatment planning, and drug discovery. The integration of graph neural networks in medical knowledge graphs and drug discovery highlights the potential of Large Graph Models (LGMs) in understanding complex biomedical relationships. The study also emphasizes the transformative role of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) and 3D Large Models in medical image analysis, anatomical modeling, and prosthetic design. Despite the challenges, these technologies are setting new benchmarks in medical innovation, improving diagnostic accuracy, and paving the way for personalized healthcare solutions. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state and future directions of large models in medicine, underscoring their significance in advancing global health.

This work introduces DiGress, a discrete denoising diffusion model for generating graphs with categorical node and edge attributes. Our model utilizes a discrete diffusion process that progressively edits graphs with noise, through the process of adding or removing edges and changing the categories. A graph transformer network is trained to revert this process, simplifying the problem of distribution learning over graphs into a sequence of node and edge classification tasks. We further improve sample quality by introducing a Markovian noise model that preserves the marginal distribution of node and edge types during diffusion, and by incorporating auxiliary graph-theoretic features. A procedure for conditioning the generation on graph-level features is also proposed. DiGress achieves state-of-the-art performance on molecular and non-molecular datasets, with up to 3x validity improvement on a planar graph dataset. It is also the first model to scale to the large GuacaMol dataset containing 1.3M drug-like molecules without the use of molecule-specific representations.

Large Generative Models (LGMs) such as GPT, Stable Diffusion, Sora, and Suno are trained on a huge amount of language corpus, images, videos, and audio that are extremely diverse from numerous domains. This training paradigm over diverse well-curated data lies at the heart of generating creative and sensible content. However, all previous graph generative models (e.g., GraphRNN, MDVAE, MoFlow, GDSS, and DiGress) have been trained only on one dataset each time, which cannot replicate the revolutionary success achieved by LGMs in other fields. To remedy this crucial gap, we propose a new class of graph generative model called Large Graph Generative Model (LGGM) that is trained on a large corpus of graphs (over 5000 graphs) from 13 different domains. We empirically demonstrate that the pre-trained LGGM has superior zero-shot generative capability to existing graph generative models. Furthermore, our pre-trained LGGM can be easily fine-tuned with graphs from target domains and demonstrate even better performance than those directly trained from scratch, behaving as a solid starting point for real-world customization. Inspired by Stable Diffusion, we further equip LGGM with the capability to generate graphs given text prompts (Text-to-Graph), such as the description of the network name and domain (i.e., "The power-1138-bus graph represents a network of buses in a power distribution system."), and network statistics (i.e., "The graph has a low average degree, suitable for modeling social media interactions."). This Text-to-Graph capability integrates the extensive world knowledge in the underlying language model, offering users fine-grained control of the generated graphs. We release the code, the model checkpoint, and the datasets at https://lggm-lg.github.io/.

Graph generation is a critical task in numerous domains, including molecular design and social network analysis, due to its ability to model complex relationships and structured data. While most modern graph generative models utilize adjacency matrix representations, this work revisits an alternative approach that represents graphs as sequences of node set and edge set. We advocate for this approach due to its efficient encoding of graphs and propose a novel representation. Based on this representation, we introduce the Graph Generative Pre-trained Transformer (G2PT), an auto-regressive model that learns graph structures via next-token prediction. To further exploit G2PT's capabilities as a general-purpose foundation model, we explore fine-tuning strategies for two downstream applications: goal-oriented generation and graph property prediction. We conduct extensive experiments across multiple datasets. Results indicate that G2PT achieves superior generative performance on both generic graph and molecule datasets. Furthermore, G2PT exhibits strong adaptability and versatility in downstream tasks from molecular design to property prediction.

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved state-of-the-art synthesis results on diverse tasks. However, the current design space of the forward diffusion process is largely unexplored and often relies on physical intuition or simplifying assumptions. Leveraging results from the design of scalable Bayesian posterior samplers, we present a complete recipe for constructing forward processes in SGMs, all of which are guaranteed to converge to the target distribution of interest. We show that several existing SGMs can be cast as specific instantiations of this parameterization. Furthermore, building on this recipe, we construct a novel SGM: Phase Space Langevin Diffusion (PSLD), which performs score-based modeling in a space augmented with auxiliary variables akin to a physical phase space. We show that PSLD outperforms competing baselines in terms of sample quality and the speed-vs-quality tradeoff across different samplers on various standard image synthesis benchmarks. Moreover, we show that PSLD achieves sample quality comparable to state-of-the-art SGMs (FID: 2.10 on unconditional CIFAR-10 generation), providing an attractive alternative as an SGM backbone for further development. We will publish our code and model checkpoints for reproducibility at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

The need to analyze graphs is ubiquitous across various fields, from social networks to biological research and recommendation systems. Therefore, enabling the ability of large language models (LLMs) to process graphs is an important step toward more advanced general intelligence. However, current LLM benchmarks on graph analysis require models to directly reason over the prompts describing graph topology, and are thus limited to small graphs with only a few dozens of nodes. In contrast, human experts typically write programs based on popular libraries for task solving, and can thus handle graphs with different scales. To this end, a question naturally arises: can LLMs analyze graphs like professionals? In this paper, we introduce ProGraph, a manually crafted benchmark containing 3 categories of graph tasks. The benchmark expects solutions based on programming instead of directly reasoning over raw inputs. Our findings reveal that the performance of current LLMs is unsatisfactory, with the best model achieving only 36% accuracy. To bridge this gap, we propose LLM4Graph datasets, which include crawled documents and auto-generated codes based on 6 widely used graph libraries. By augmenting closed-source LLMs with document retrieval and fine-tuning open-source ones on the codes, we show 11-32% absolute improvements in their accuracies. Our results underscore that the capabilities of LLMs in handling structured data are still under-explored, and show the effectiveness of LLM4Graph in enhancing LLMs' proficiency of graph analysis. The benchmark, datasets and enhanced open-source models are available at https://github.com/BUPT-GAMMA/ProGraph.

Assessing the fidelity and diversity of the generative model is a difficult but important issue for technological advancement. So, recent papers have introduced k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) based precision-recall metrics to break down the statistical distance into fidelity and diversity. While they provide an intuitive method, we thoroughly analyze these metrics and identify oversimplified assumptions and undesirable properties of kNN that result in unreliable evaluation, such as susceptibility to outliers and insensitivity to distributional changes. Thus, we propose novel metrics, P-precision and P-recall (PP\&PR), based on a probabilistic approach that address the problems. Through extensive investigations on toy experiments and state-of-the-art generative models, we show that our PP\&PR provide more reliable estimates for comparing fidelity and diversity than the existing metrics. The codes are available at https://github.com/kdst-team/Probablistic_precision_recall.

Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and LLaMA, are creating significant advancements in natural language processing, due to their strong text encoding/decoding ability and newly found emergent capability (e.g., reasoning). While LLMs are mainly designed to process pure texts, there are many real-world scenarios where text data are associated with rich structure information in the form of graphs (e.g., academic networks, and e-commerce networks) or scenarios where graph data are paired with rich textual information (e.g., molecules with descriptions). Besides, although LLMs have shown their pure text-based reasoning ability, it is underexplored whether such ability can be generalized to graph scenarios (i.e., graph-based reasoning). In this paper, we provide a systematic review of scenarios and techniques related to large language models on graphs. We first summarize potential scenarios of adopting LLMs on graphs into three categories, namely pure graphs, text-rich graphs, and text-paired graphs. We then discuss detailed techniques for utilizing LLMs on graphs, including LLM as Predictor, LLM as Encoder, and LLM as Aligner, and compare the advantages and disadvantages of different schools of models. Furthermore, we mention the real-world applications of such methods and summarize open-source codes and benchmark datasets. Finally, we conclude with potential future research directions in this fast-growing field. The related source can be found at https://github.com/PeterGriffinJin/Awesome-Language-Model-on-Graphs.

This work studies discrete diffusion probabilistic models with applications to natural language generation. We derive an alternative yet equivalent formulation of the sampling from discrete diffusion processes and leverage this insight to develop a family of reparameterized discrete diffusion models. The derived generic framework is highly flexible, offers a fresh perspective of the generation process in discrete diffusion models, and features more effective training and decoding techniques. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the text generation capability of our model, demonstrating significant improvements over existing diffusion models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have garnered considerable interest within both academic and industrial. Yet, the application of LLMs to graph data remains under-explored. In this study, we evaluate the capabilities of four LLMs in addressing several analytical problems with graph data. We employ four distinct evaluation metrics: Comprehension, Correctness, Fidelity, and Rectification. Our results show that: 1) LLMs effectively comprehend graph data in natural language and reason with graph topology. 2) GPT models can generate logical and coherent results, outperforming alternatives in correctness. 3) All examined LLMs face challenges in structural reasoning, with techniques like zero-shot chain-of-thought and few-shot prompting showing diminished efficacy. 4) GPT models often produce erroneous answers in multi-answer tasks, raising concerns in fidelity. 5) GPT models exhibit elevated confidence in their outputs, potentially hindering their rectification capacities. Notably, GPT-4 has demonstrated the capacity to rectify responses from GPT-3.5-turbo and its own previous iterations. The code is available at: https://github.com/Ayame1006/LLMtoGraph.

We introduceGraphGPT, a novel self-supervised generative pre-trained model for graph learning based on the Graph Eulerian Transformer (GET). First, we propose GET, which combines a standard transformer encoder or decoder architecture with an innovative graph-to-sequence transformation method. This method converts graphs or sampled subgraphs into sequences of tokens representing nodes, edges, and attributes in a reversible manner using Eulerian paths. We pre-train GET using either of the two self-supervised tasks: next-token prediction (NTP) and scheduled masked-token prediction (SMTP). The pre-trained model is then fine-tuned for downstream tasks such as graph-, edge-, and node-level prediction. Despite its simplicity, GraphGPT achieves performance comparable to or surpassing state-of-the-art methods on multiple large-scale Open Graph Benchmark (OGB) datasets. It demonstrates exceptional results on the molecular property prediction dataset PCQM4Mv2 and the protein-protein interaction dataset ogbl-ppa. Notably, generative pre-training enables scaling GraphGPT to 2 billion parameters while maintaining performance gains - a breakthrough that overcomes the scalability limitations of traditional Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and prior graph transformers (GTs). To advance research in graph foundation models and facilitate scientific discovery in chemistry, materials science, and related fields, we will release the source code (https://github.com/alibaba/graph-gpt) and pre-trained checkpoints.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: We formulate the structure learning problem as a purely continuous optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved by standard numerical algorithms, which also makes implementation effortless. The proposed method outperforms existing ones, without imposing any structural assumptions on the graph such as bounded treewidth or in-degree. Code implementing the proposed algorithm is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/xunzheng/notears.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries (e.g., marginal probabilities). One key challenge is to scale PCs to model large and high-dimensional real-world datasets: we observe that as the number of parameters in PCs increases, their performance immediately plateaus. This phenomenon suggests that the existing optimizers fail to exploit the full expressive power of large PCs. We propose to overcome such bottleneck by latent variable distillation: we leverage the less tractable but more expressive deep generative models to provide extra supervision over the latent variables of PCs. Specifically, we extract information from Transformer-based generative models to assign values to latent variables of PCs, providing guidance to PC optimizers. Experiments on both image and language modeling benchmarks (e.g., ImageNet and WikiText-2) show that latent variable distillation substantially boosts the performance of large PCs compared to their counterparts without latent variable distillation. In particular, on the image modeling benchmarks, PCs achieve competitive performance against some of the widely-used deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and flow-based models, opening up new avenues for tractable generative modeling.

Generation of graphs is a major challenge for real-world tasks that require understanding the complex nature of their non-Euclidean structures. Although diffusion models have achieved notable success in graph generation recently, they are ill-suited for modeling the topological properties of graphs since learning to denoise the noisy samples does not explicitly learn the graph structures to be generated. To tackle this limitation, we propose a generative framework that models the topology of graphs by explicitly learning the final graph structures of the diffusion process. Specifically, we design the generative process as a mixture of endpoint-conditioned diffusion processes which is driven toward the predicted graph that results in rapid convergence. We further introduce a simple parameterization of the mixture process and develop an objective for learning the final graph structure, which enables maximum likelihood training. Through extensive experimental validation on general graph and 2D/3D molecule generation tasks, we show that our method outperforms previous generative models, generating graphs with correct topology with both continuous (e.g. 3D coordinates) and discrete (e.g. atom types) features. Our code is available at https://github.com/harryjo97/GruM.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Graph-based collaborative filtering methods have prevailing performance for recommender systems since they can capture high-order information between users and items, in which the graphs are constructed from the observed user-item interactions that might miss links or contain spurious positive interactions in industrial scenarios. The Bayesian Graph Neural Network framework approaches this issue with generative models for the interaction graphs. The critical problem is to devise a proper family of graph generative models tailored to recommender systems. We propose an efficient generative model that jointly considers the preferences of users, the concurrence of items and some important graph structure information. Experiments on four popular benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed graph generative methods for recommender systems.

Self-supervised learning excels at learning representations from large amounts of data. At the same time, generative models offer the complementary property of learning information about the underlying data generation process. In this study, we aim at establishing a principled connection between these two paradigms and highlight the benefits of their complementarity. In particular, we perform an analysis of self-supervised learning objectives, elucidating the underlying probabilistic graphical models and presenting a standardized methodology for their derivation from first principles. The analysis suggests a natural means of integrating self-supervised learning with likelihood-based generative models. We instantiate this concept within the realm of cluster-based self-supervised learning and energy models, introducing a lower bound proven to reliably penalize the most important failure modes and unlocking full unification. Our theoretical findings are substantiated through experiments on synthetic and real-world data, including SVHN, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100, demonstrating that our objective function allows to jointly train a backbone network in a discriminative and generative fashion, consequently outperforming existing self-supervised learning strategies in terms of clustering, generation and out-of-distribution detection performance by a wide margin. We also demonstrate that the solution can be integrated into a neuro-symbolic framework to tackle a simple yet non-trivial instantiation of the symbol grounding problem. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/emsansone/GEDI.

In precision medicine, quantitative multi-omic features, topological context, and textual biological knowledge play vital roles in identifying disease-critical signaling pathways and targets. Existing pipelines capture only part of these-numerical omics ignore topological context, text-centric LLMs lack quantitative grounded reasoning, and graph-only models underuse node semantics and the generalization of LLMs-limiting mechanistic interpretability. Although Process Reward Models (PRMs) aim to guide reasoning in LLMs, they remain limited by unreliable intermediate evaluation, and vulnerability to reward hacking with computational cost. These gaps motivate integrating quantitative multi-omic signals, topological structure with node annotations, and literature-scale text via LLMs, using subgraph reasoning as the principle bridge linking numeric evidence, topological knowledge and language context. Therefore, we propose GALAX (Graph Augmented LAnguage model with eXplainability), an innovative framework that integrates pretrained Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) into Large Language Models (LLMs) via reinforcement guided by a Graph Process Reward Model (GPRM), which generates disease-relevant subgraphs in a step-wise manner initiated by an LLM and iteratively evaluated by a pretrained GNN, enabling process-level supervision without explicit intermediate reasoning annotations. As an application, we also introduced Target-QA, a benchmark combining CRISPR-identified targets, multi-omic profiles, and biomedical graph knowledge across diverse cancer cell lines, which enables GNN pretraining for supervising step-wise graph construction and supports long-context reasoning over text-numeric graphs (TNGs), providing a scalable and biologically grounded framework for explainable, reinforcement-guided subgraph reasoning toward reliable and interpretable target and pathway discovery in precision medicine.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.

Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard baseline methods such as model logits and elicited probabilities produce overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates. In this work, we propose Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a likelihood-free Bayesian inference, based approach that treats LLMs as a stochastic simulator to infer posterior distributions over predictive probabilities. We evaluate our ABC approach on two clinically relevant benchmarks: a synthetic oral lesion diagnosis dataset and the publicly available GretelAI symptom-to-diagnosis dataset. Compared to standard baselines, our approach improves accuracy by up to 46.9\%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4\%, and enhances calibration as measured by Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and predictive entropy.

Graph-structured data are the commonly used and have wide application scenarios in the real world. For these diverse applications, the vast variety of learning tasks, graph domains, and complex graph learning procedures present challenges for human experts when designing versatile graph learning approaches. Facing these challenges, large language models (LLMs) offer a potential solution due to the extensive knowledge and the human-like intelligence. This paper proposes a novel conceptual prototype for designing versatile graph learning methods with LLMs, with a particular focus on the "where" and "how" perspectives. From the "where" perspective, we summarize four key graph learning procedures, including task definition, graph data feature engineering, model selection and optimization, deployment and serving. We then explore the application scenarios of LLMs in these procedures across a wider spectrum. In the "how" perspective, we align the abilities of LLMs with the requirements of each procedure. Finally, we point out the promising directions that could better leverage the strength of LLMs towards versatile graph learning methods.

Masked language model and autoregressive language model are two types of language models. While pretrained masked language models such as BERT overwhelm the line of natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, autoregressive language models such as GPT are especially capable in natural language generation (NLG). In this paper, we propose a probabilistic masking scheme for the masked language model, which we call probabilistically masked language model (PMLM). We implement a specific PMLM with a uniform prior distribution on the masking ratio named u-PMLM. We prove that u-PMLM is equivalent to an autoregressive permutated language model. One main advantage of the model is that it supports text generation in arbitrary order with surprisingly good quality, which could potentially enable new applications over traditional unidirectional generation. Besides, the pretrained u-PMLM also outperforms BERT on a set of downstream NLU tasks.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Can we model non-Euclidean graphs as pure language or even Euclidean vectors while retaining their inherent information? The non-Euclidean property have posed a long term challenge in graph modeling. Despite recent GNN and Graphformer efforts encoding graphs as Euclidean vectors, recovering original graph from the vectors remains a challenge. We introduce GraphsGPT, featuring a Graph2Seq encoder that transforms non-Euclidean graphs into learnable graph words in a Euclidean space, along with a GraphGPT decoder that reconstructs the original graph from graph words to ensure information equivalence. We pretrain GraphsGPT on 100M molecules and yield some interesting findings: (1) Pretrained Graph2Seq excels in graph representation learning, achieving state-of-the-art results on 8/9 graph classification and regression tasks. (2) Pretrained GraphGPT serves as a strong graph generator, demonstrated by its ability to perform both unconditional and conditional graph generation. (3) Graph2Seq+GraphGPT enables effective graph mixup in the Euclidean space, overcoming previously known non-Euclidean challenge. (4) Our proposed novel edge-centric GPT pretraining task is effective in graph fields, underscoring its success in both representation and generation.

This paper introduces Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs), a new class of generative model in which the parameters of a set of independent distributions are modified with Bayesian inference in the light of noisy data samples, then passed as input to a neural network that outputs a second, interdependent distribution. Starting from a simple prior and iteratively updating the two distributions yields a generative procedure similar to the reverse process of diffusion models; however it is conceptually simpler in that no forward process is required. Discrete and continuous-time loss functions are derived for continuous, discretised and discrete data, along with sample generation procedures. Notably, the network inputs for discrete data lie on the probability simplex, and are therefore natively differentiable, paving the way for gradient-based sample guidance and few-step generation in discrete domains such as language modelling. The loss function directly optimises data compression and places no restrictions on the network architecture. In our experiments BFNs achieve competitive log-likelihoods for image modelling on dynamically binarized MNIST and CIFAR-10, and outperform all known discrete diffusion models on the text8 character-level language modelling task.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

We present a formulation of flow matching as variational inference, which we refer to as variational flow matching (VFM). Based on this formulation we develop CatFlow, a flow matching method for categorical data. CatFlow is easy to implement, computationally efficient, and achieves strong results on graph generation tasks. In VFM, the objective is to approximate the posterior probability path, which is a distribution over possible end points of a trajectory. We show that VFM admits both the CatFlow objective and the original flow matching objective as special cases. We also relate VFM to score-based models, in which the dynamics are stochastic rather than deterministic, and derive a bound on the model likelihood based on a reweighted VFM objective. We evaluate CatFlow on one abstract graph generation task and two molecular generation tasks. In all cases, CatFlow exceeds or matches performance of the current state-of-the-art models.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

In this paper, we aim to develop a large language model (LLM) with the reasoning ability on complex graph data. Currently, LLMs have achieved very impressive performance on various natural language learning tasks, extensions of which have also been applied to study the vision tasks with multi-modal data. However, when it comes to the graph learning tasks, existing LLMs present very serious flaws due to their several inherited weaknesses in performing {multi-step logic reasoning}, {precise mathematical calculation} and {perception about the spatial and temporal factors}. To address such challenges, in this paper, we will investigate the principles, methodologies and algorithms to empower existing LLMs with graph reasoning ability, which will have tremendous impacts on the current research of both LLMs and graph learning. Inspired by the latest ChatGPT and Toolformer models, we propose the Graph-ToolFormer (Graph Reasoning oriented Toolformer) framework to teach LLMs themselves with prompts augmented by ChatGPT to use external graph reasoning API tools. Specifically, we will investigate to teach Graph-ToolFormer to handle various graph data reasoning tasks in this paper, including both (1) very basic graph data loading and graph property reasoning tasks, ranging from simple graph order and size to the graph diameter and periphery, and (2) more advanced reasoning tasks on real-world graph data, such as bibliographic networks, protein molecules, sequential recommender systems, social networks and knowledge graphs.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

We study how to train personalized models for different tasks on decentralized devices with limited local data. We propose "Structured Cooperative Learning (SCooL)", in which a cooperation graph across devices is generated by a graphical model prior to automatically coordinate mutual learning between devices. By choosing graphical models enforcing different structures, we can derive a rich class of existing and novel decentralized learning algorithms via variational inference. In particular, we show three instantiations of SCooL that adopt Dirac distribution, stochastic block model (SBM), and attention as the prior generating cooperation graphs. These EM-type algorithms alternate between updating the cooperation graph and cooperative learning of local models. They can automatically capture the cross-task correlations among devices by only monitoring their model updating in order to optimize the cooperation graph. We evaluate SCooL and compare it with existing decentralized learning methods on an extensive set of benchmarks, on which SCooL always achieves the highest accuracy of personalized models and significantly outperforms other baselines on communication efficiency. Our code is available at https://github.com/ShuangtongLi/SCooL.

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but they inevitably generate errors throughout multi-step solutions. Process-level Reward Models (PRMs) have shown great promise by providing supervision and evaluation at each intermediate step, thereby effectively improving the models' reasoning abilities. However, training effective PRMs requires high-quality process reward data, yet existing methods for constructing such data are often labour-intensive or inefficient. In this paper, we propose an uncertainty-driven framework for automated process reward data construction, encompassing both data generation and annotation processes for PRMs. Additionally, we identify the limitations of both majority vote and PRMs, and introduce two generic uncertainty-aware output aggregation methods: Hybrid Majority Reward Vote and Weighted Reward Frequency Vote, which combine the strengths of majority vote with PRMs. Extensive experiments on ProcessBench, MATH, and GSMPlus show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed PRM data construction framework, and demonstrate that the two output aggregation methods further improve the mathematical reasoning abilities across diverse PRMs. The code and data will be publicly available at https://github.com/Jiuzhouh/UnPRM.

The field of Explainable AI (XAI) is seeking to shed light on the inner workings of complex AI models and uncover the rationale behind their decisions. One of the models gaining attention are probabilistic circuits (PCs), which are a general and unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries. Probabilistic circuits guarantee inference that is polynomial in the size of the circuit. In this paper, we improve the explainability of probabilistic circuits by computing a comprehensible, readable logical theory that covers the high-density regions generated by a PC. To achieve this, pruning approaches based on generative significance are used in a new method called PUTPUT (Probabilistic circuit Understanding Through Pruning Underlying logical Theories). The method is applied to a real world use case where music playlists are automatically generated and expressed as readable (database) queries. Evaluation shows that this approach can effectively produce a comprehensible logical theory that describes the high-density regions of a PC and outperforms state of the art methods when exploring the performance-comprehensibility trade-off.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

Deep generative models (DGMs) have been widely developed for graph data. However, much less investigation has been carried out on understanding the latent space of such pretrained graph DGMs. These understandings possess the potential to provide constructive guidelines for crucial tasks, such as graph controllable generation. Thus in this work, we are interested in studying this problem and propose GraphCG, a method for the unsupervised discovery of steerable factors in the latent space of pretrained graph DGMs. We first examine the representation space of three pretrained graph DGMs with six disentanglement metrics, and we observe that the pretrained representation space is entangled. Motivated by this observation, GraphCG learns the steerable factors via maximizing the mutual information between semantic-rich directions, where the controlled graph moving along the same direction will share the same steerable factors. We quantitatively verify that GraphCG outperforms four competitive baselines on two graph DGMs pretrained on two molecule datasets. Additionally, we qualitatively illustrate seven steerable factors learned by GraphCG on five pretrained DGMs over five graph datasets, including two for molecules and three for point clouds.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Dirichlet Process mixture models (DPMM) in combination with Gaussian kernels have been an important modeling tool for numerous data domains arising from biological, physical, and social sciences. However, this versatility in applications does not extend to strong theoretical guarantees for the underlying parameter estimates, for which only a logarithmic rate is achieved. In this work, we (re)introduce and investigate a metric, named Orlicz-Wasserstein distance, in the study of the Bayesian contraction behavior for the parameters. We show that despite the overall slow convergence guarantees for all the parameters, posterior contraction for parameters happens at almost polynomial rates in outlier regions of the parameter space. Our theoretical results provide new insight in understanding the convergence behavior of parameters arising from various settings of hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. In addition, we provide an algorithm to compute the metric by leveraging Sinkhorn divergences and validate our findings through a simulation study.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

Relational databases (RDBs) are composed of interconnected tables, where relationships between them are defined through foreign keys. Recent research on applying machine learning to RDBs has explored graph-based representations of RDBs, where rows of tables are modeled as nodes, and foreign key relationships are modeled as edges. RDB-to-graph modeling helps capture cross-table dependencies, ultimately leading to enhanced performance across diverse tasks. However, there are numerous ways to model RDBs as graphs, and performance varies significantly depending on the chosen graph model. In our analysis, applying a common heuristic rule for graph modeling leads to up to a 10% drop in performance compared to the best-performing graph model, which remains non-trivial to identify. To foster research on intelligent RDB-to-graph modeling, we introduce RDB2G-Bench, the first benchmark framework for evaluating such methods. We construct extensive datasets covering 5 real-world RDBs and 12 predictive tasks, resulting in around 50k graph-performance pairs for efficient and reproducible evaluations. Thanks to our precomputed datasets, we were able to benchmark 9 automatic RDB-to-graph modeling methods on the 12 tasks over 600x faster than on-the-fly evaluation, which requires repeated model training. Our analysis of the datasets and benchmark results reveals key structural patterns affecting graph model effectiveness, along with practical implications for effective graph modeling.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) are a class of generative models which have recently been shown to produce excellent samples. We show that with a few simple modifications, DDPMs can also achieve competitive log-likelihoods while maintaining high sample quality. Additionally, we find that learning variances of the reverse diffusion process allows sampling with an order of magnitude fewer forward passes with a negligible difference in sample quality, which is important for the practical deployment of these models. We additionally use precision and recall to compare how well DDPMs and GANs cover the target distribution. Finally, we show that the sample quality and likelihood of these models scale smoothly with model capacity and training compute, making them easily scalable. We release our code at https://github.com/openai/improved-diffusion

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a general and unified computational framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various inference tasks (e.g., computing marginal probabilities). Towards enabling such reasoning capabilities in complex real-world tasks, Liu et al. (2022) propose to distill knowledge (through latent variable assignments) from less tractable but more expressive deep generative models. However, it is still unclear what factors make this distillation work well. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically discover that the performance of a PC can exceed that of its teacher model. Therefore, instead of performing distillation from the most expressive deep generative model, we study what properties the teacher model and the PC should have in order to achieve good distillation performance. This leads to a generic algorithmic improvement as well as other data-type-specific ones over the existing latent variable distillation pipeline. Empirically, we outperform SoTA TPMs by a large margin on challenging image modeling benchmarks. In particular, on ImageNet32, PCs achieve 4.06 bits-per-dimension, which is only 0.34 behind variational diffusion models (Kingma et al., 2021).

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Recent work in scientific machine learning (SciML) has focused on incorporating partial differential equation (PDE) information into the learning process. Much of this work has focused on relatively ``easy'' PDE operators (e.g., elliptic and parabolic), with less emphasis on relatively ``hard'' PDE operators (e.g., hyperbolic). Within numerical PDEs, the latter problem class requires control of a type of volume element or conservation constraint, which is known to be challenging. Delivering on the promise of SciML requires seamlessly incorporating both types of problems into the learning process. To address this issue, we propose ProbConserv, a framework for incorporating conservation constraints into a generic SciML architecture. To do so, ProbConserv combines the integral form of a conservation law with a Bayesian update. We provide a detailed analysis of ProbConserv on learning with the Generalized Porous Medium Equation (GPME), a widely-applicable parameterized family of PDEs that illustrates the qualitative properties of both easier and harder PDEs. ProbConserv is effective for easy GPME variants, performing well with state-of-the-art competitors; and for harder GPME variants it outperforms other approaches that do not guarantee volume conservation. ProbConserv seamlessly enforces physical conservation constraints, maintains probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ), and deals well with shocks and heteroscedasticities. In each case, it achieves superior predictive performance on downstream tasks.

Foundation models have emerged as critical components in a variety of artificial intelligence applications, and showcase significant success in natural language processing and several other domains. Meanwhile, the field of graph machine learning is witnessing a paradigm transition from shallow methods to more sophisticated deep learning approaches. The capabilities of foundation models to generalize and adapt motivate graph machine learning researchers to discuss the potential of developing a new graph learning paradigm. This paradigm envisions models that are pre-trained on extensive graph data and can be adapted for various graph tasks. Despite this burgeoning interest, there is a noticeable lack of clear definitions and systematic analyses pertaining to this new domain. To this end, this article introduces the concept of Graph Foundation Models (GFMs), and offers an exhaustive explanation of their key characteristics and underlying technologies. We proceed to classify the existing work related to GFMs into three distinct categories, based on their dependence on graph neural networks and large language models. In addition to providing a thorough review of the current state of GFMs, this article also outlooks potential avenues for future research in this rapidly evolving domain.

In the realm of generative models for graphs, extensive research has been conducted. However, most existing methods struggle with large graphs due to the complexity of representing the entire joint distribution across all node pairs and capturing both global and local graph structures simultaneously. To overcome these issues, we introduce a method that generates a graph by progressively expanding a single node to a target graph. In each step, nodes and edges are added in a localized manner through denoising diffusion, building first the global structure, and then refining the local details. The local generation avoids modeling the entire joint distribution over all node pairs, achieving substantial computational savings with subquadratic runtime relative to node count while maintaining high expressivity through multiscale generation. Our experiments show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on well-established benchmark datasets while successfully scaling to graphs with at least 5000 nodes. Our method is also the first to successfully extrapolate to graphs outside of the training distribution, showcasing a much better generalization capability over existing methods.

In this paper, we propose the first framework that enables solving graph learning tasks of all levels (node, edge and graph) and all types (generation, regression and classification) with one model. We first propose Latent Graph Diffusion (LGD), a generative model that can generate node, edge, and graph-level features of all categories simultaneously. We achieve this goal by embedding the graph structures and features into a latent space leveraging a powerful encoder which can also be decoded, then training a diffusion model in the latent space. LGD is also capable of conditional generation through a specifically designed cross-attention mechanism. Then we formulate prediction tasks including regression and classification as (conditional) generation, which enables our LGD to solve tasks of all levels and all types with provable guarantees. We verify the effectiveness of our framework with extensive experiments, where our models achieve state-of-the-art or highly competitive results across generation and regression tasks.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated potential in processing graphs, they struggle with comprehending graphical structure information through prompts of graph description sequences, especially as the graph size increases. We attribute this challenge to the uneven memory performance of LLMs across different positions in graph description sequences, known as ''positional biases''. To address this, we propose GraphInsight, a novel framework aimed at improving LLMs' comprehension of both macro- and micro-level graphical information. GraphInsight is grounded in two key strategies: 1) placing critical graphical information in positions where LLMs exhibit stronger memory performance, and 2) investigating a lightweight external knowledge base for regions with weaker memory performance, inspired by retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Moreover, GraphInsight explores integrating these two strategies into LLM agent processes for composite graph tasks that require multi-step reasoning. Extensive empirical studies on benchmarks with a wide range of evaluation tasks show that GraphInsight significantly outperforms all other graph description methods (e.g., prompting techniques and reordering strategies) in understanding graph structures of varying sizes.

We introduce in this paper the mechanism of graph random features (GRFs). GRFs can be used to construct unbiased randomized estimators of several important kernels defined on graphs' nodes, in particular the regularized Laplacian kernel. As regular RFs for non-graph kernels, they provide means to scale up kernel methods defined on graphs to larger networks. Importantly, they give substantial computational gains also for smaller graphs, while applied in downstream applications. Consequently, GRFs address the notoriously difficult problem of cubic (in the number of the nodes of the graph) time complexity of graph kernels algorithms. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis of GRFs and an extensive empirical evaluation: from speed tests, through Frobenius relative error analysis to kmeans graph-clustering with graph kernels. We show that the computation of GRFs admits an embarrassingly simple distributed algorithm that can be applied if the graph under consideration needs to be split across several machines. We also introduce a (still unbiased) quasi Monte Carlo variant of GRFs, q-GRFs, relying on the so-called reinforced random walks, that might be used to optimize the variance of GRFs. As a byproduct, we obtain a novel approach to solve certain classes of linear equations with positive and symmetric matrices.

Attention mechanisms have been widely used to capture long-range dependencies among nodes in Graph Transformers. Bottlenecked by the quadratic computational cost, attention mechanisms fail to scale in large graphs. Recent improvements in computational efficiency are mainly achieved by attention sparsification with random or heuristic-based graph subsampling, which falls short in data-dependent context reasoning. State space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness and efficiency in modeling long-range dependencies in sequential data. However, adapting SSMs to non-sequential graph data presents a notable challenge. In this work, we introduce Graph-Mamba, the first attempt to enhance long-range context modeling in graph networks by integrating a Mamba block with the input-dependent node selection mechanism. Specifically, we formulate graph-centric node prioritization and permutation strategies to enhance context-aware reasoning, leading to a substantial improvement in predictive performance. Extensive experiments on ten benchmark datasets demonstrate that Graph-Mamba outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long-range graph prediction tasks, with a fraction of the computational cost in both FLOPs and GPU memory consumption. The code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bowang-lab/Graph-Mamba.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have emerged as a powerful framework in the realm of generative modeling, offering a unique perspective that aligns closely with principles of statistical mechanics. This review aims to provide physicists with a comprehensive understanding of EBMs, delineating their connection to other generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and Normalizing Flows. We explore the sampling techniques crucial for EBMs, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and draw parallels between EBM concepts and statistical mechanics, highlighting the significance of energy functions and partition functions. Furthermore, we delve into state-of-the-art training methodologies for EBMs, covering recent advancements and their implications for enhanced model performance and efficiency. This review is designed to clarify the often complex interconnections between these models, which can be challenging due to the diverse communities working on the topic.

Large language models (LLMs) have proven to be remarkably efficient, both across a wide range of natural language processing tasks and well beyond them. However, a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the origins of their impressive performance remains elusive. In this paper, we approach this challenging task by drawing an equivalence between generic autoregressive language models with vocabulary of size T and context window of size K and Markov chains defined on a finite state space of size O(T^K). We derive several surprising findings related to the existence of a stationary distribution of Markov chains that capture the inference power of LLMs, their speed of convergence to it, and the influence of the temperature on the latter. We then prove pre-training and in-context generalization bounds and show how the drawn equivalence allows us to enrich their interpretation. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical guarantees with experiments on several recent LLMs to highlight how they capture the behavior observed in practice.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made remarkable strides in reasoning tasks, yet their performance often falters on novel and complex problems. Domain-specific continued pretraining (CPT) methods, such as those tailored for mathematical reasoning, have shown promise but lack transferability to broader reasoning tasks. In this work, we pioneer the use of Graph Problem Reasoning (GPR) to enhance the general reasoning capabilities of LLMs. GPR tasks, spanning pathfinding, network analysis, numerical computation, and topological reasoning, require sophisticated logical and relational reasoning, making them ideal for teaching diverse reasoning patterns. To achieve this, we introduce GraphPile, the first large-scale corpus specifically designed for CPT using GPR data. Spanning 10.9 billion tokens across 23 graph tasks, the dataset includes chain-of-thought, program-of-thought, trace of execution, and real-world graph data. Using GraphPile, we train GraphMind on popular base models Llama 3 and 3.1, as well as Gemma 2, achieving up to 4.9 percent higher accuracy in mathematical reasoning and up to 21.2 percent improvement in non-mathematical reasoning tasks such as logical and commonsense reasoning. By being the first to harness GPR for enhancing reasoning patterns and introducing the first dataset of its kind, our work bridges the gap between domain-specific pretraining and universal reasoning capabilities, advancing the adaptability and robustness of LLMs.

A key to knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is to choose a proper representation space, e.g., point-wise Euclidean space and complex vector space. In this paper, we propose a unified perspective of embedding and introduce uncertainty into KGE from the view of group theory. Our model can incorporate existing models (i.e., generality), ensure the computation is tractable (i.e., efficiency) and enjoy the expressive power of complex random variables (i.e., expressiveness). The core idea is that we embed entities/relations as elements of a symmetric group, i.e., permutations of a set. Permutations of different sets can reflect different properties of embedding. And the group operation of symmetric groups is easy to compute. In specific, we show that the embedding of many existing models, point vectors, can be seen as elements of a symmetric group. To reflect uncertainty, we first embed entities/relations as permutations of a set of random variables. A permutation can transform a simple random variable into a complex random variable for greater expressiveness, called a normalizing flow. We then define scoring functions by measuring the similarity of two normalizing flows, namely NFE. We construct several instantiating models and prove that they are able to learn logical rules. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of introducing uncertainty and our model. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/NFE.

Graph neural networks are popular architectures for graph machine learning, based on iterative computation of node representations of an input graph through a series of invariant transformations. A large class of graph neural networks follow a standard message-passing paradigm: at every layer, each node state is updated based on an aggregate of messages from its neighborhood. In this work, we propose a novel framework for training graph neural networks, where every node is viewed as a player that can choose to either 'listen', 'broadcast', 'listen and broadcast', or to 'isolate'. The standard message propagation scheme can then be viewed as a special case of this framework where every node 'listens and broadcasts' to all neighbors. Our approach offers a more flexible and dynamic message-passing paradigm, where each node can determine its own strategy based on their state, effectively exploring the graph topology while learning. We provide a theoretical analysis of the new message-passing scheme which is further supported by an extensive empirical analysis on a synthetic dataset and on real-world datasets.

Stable Diffusion revolutionised image creation from descriptive text. GPT-2, GPT-3(.5) and GPT-4 demonstrated astonishing performance across a variety of language tasks. ChatGPT introduced such language models to the general public. It is now clear that large language models (LLMs) are here to stay, and will bring about drastic change in the whole ecosystem of online text and images. In this paper we consider what the future might hold. What will happen to GPT-{n} once LLMs contribute much of the language found online? We find that use of model-generated content in training causes irreversible defects in the resulting models, where tails of the original content distribution disappear. We call this effect model dementia and show that it can occur in Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) and LLMs. We build theoretical intuition behind the phenomenon and portray its ubiquity amongst all learned generative models. We demonstrate that it has to be taken seriously if we are to sustain the benefits of training from large-scale data scraped from the web. Indeed, the value of data collected about genuine human interactions with systems will be increasingly valuable in the presence of content generated by LLMs in data crawled from the Internet.

Scene graph generation (SGG) models have suffered from inherent problems regarding the benchmark datasets such as the long-tailed predicate distribution and missing annotation problems. In this work, we aim to alleviate the long-tailed problem of SGG by utilizing unannotated triplets. To this end, we introduce a Self-Training framework for SGG (ST-SGG) that assigns pseudo-labels for unannotated triplets based on which the SGG models are trained. While there has been significant progress in self-training for image recognition, designing a self-training framework for the SGG task is more challenging due to its inherent nature such as the semantic ambiguity and the long-tailed distribution of predicate classes. Hence, we propose a novel pseudo-labeling technique for SGG, called Class-specific Adaptive Thresholding with Momentum (CATM), which is a model-agnostic framework that can be applied to any existing SGG models. Furthermore, we devise a graph structure learner (GSL) that is beneficial when adopting our proposed self-training framework to the state-of-the-art message-passing neural network (MPNN)-based SGG models. Our extensive experiments verify the effectiveness of ST-SGG on various SGG models, particularly in enhancing the performance on fine-grained predicate classes.

We study the implications of the modeling choice to use a graph, instead of a hypergraph, to represent real-world interconnected systems whose constituent relationships are of higher order by nature. Such a modeling choice typically involves an underlying projection process that maps the original hypergraph onto a graph, and is common in graph-based analysis. While hypergraph projection can potentially lead to loss of higher-order relations, there exists very limited studies on the consequences of doing so, as well as its remediation. This work fills this gap by doing two things: (1) we develop analysis based on graph and set theory, showing two ubiquitous patterns of hyperedges that are root to structural information loss in all hypergraph projections; we also quantify the combinatorial impossibility of recovering the lost higher-order structures if no extra help is provided; (2) we still seek to recover the lost higher-order structures in hypergraph projection, and in light of (1)'s findings we propose to relax the problem into a learning-based setting. Under this setting, we develop a learning-based hypergraph reconstruction method based on an important statistic of hyperedge distributions that we find. Our reconstruction method is evaluated on 8 real-world datasets under different settings, and exhibits consistently good performance. We also demonstrate benefits of the reconstructed hypergraphs via use cases of protein rankings and link predictions.

Diffusion models based on permutation-equivariant networks can learn permutation-invariant distributions for graph data. However, in comparison to their non-invariant counterparts, we have found that these invariant models encounter greater learning challenges since 1) their effective target distributions exhibit more modes; 2) their optimal one-step denoising scores are the score functions of Gaussian mixtures with more components. Motivated by this analysis, we propose a non-invariant diffusion model, called SwinGNN, which employs an efficient edge-to-edge 2-WL message passing network and utilizes shifted window based self-attention inspired by SwinTransformers. Further, through systematic ablations, we identify several critical training and sampling techniques that significantly improve the sample quality of graph generation. At last, we introduce a simple post-processing trick, i.e., randomly permuting the generated graphs, which provably converts any graph generative model to a permutation-invariant one. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world protein and molecule datasets show that our SwinGNN achieves state-of-the-art performances. Our code is released at https://github.com/qiyan98/SwinGNN.

Diffusion-based generative graph models have been proven effective in generating high-quality small graphs. However, they need to be more scalable for generating large graphs containing thousands of nodes desiring graph statistics. In this work, we propose EDGE, a new diffusion-based generative graph model that addresses generative tasks with large graphs. To improve computation efficiency, we encourage graph sparsity by using a discrete diffusion process that randomly removes edges at each time step and finally obtains an empty graph. EDGE only focuses on a portion of nodes in the graph at each denoising step. It makes much fewer edge predictions than previous diffusion-based models. Moreover, EDGE admits explicitly modeling the node degrees of the graphs, further improving the model performance. The empirical study shows that EDGE is much more efficient than competing methods and can generate large graphs with thousands of nodes. It also outperforms baseline models in generation quality: graphs generated by our approach have more similar graph statistics to those of the training graphs.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), especially message-passing neural networks (MPNNs), have emerged as powerful architectures for learning on graphs in diverse applications. However, MPNNs face challenges when modeling non-local interactions in graphs such as large conjugated molecules, and social networks due to oversmoothing and oversquashing. Although Spectral GNNs and traditional neural networks such as recurrent neural networks and transformers mitigate these challenges, they often lack generalizability, or fail to capture detailed structural relationships or symmetries in the data. To address these concerns, we introduce Matrix Function Neural Networks (MFNs), a novel architecture that parameterizes non-local interactions through analytic matrix equivariant functions. Employing resolvent expansions offers a straightforward implementation and the potential for linear scaling with system size. The MFN architecture achieves stateof-the-art performance in standard graph benchmarks, such as the ZINC and TU datasets, and is able to capture intricate non-local interactions in quantum systems, paving the way to new state-of-the-art force fields.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in synthetic tabular data generation, yet existing methods struggle to preserve complex feature dependencies, particularly among categorical variables. This work introduces a probability-driven prompting approach that leverages LLMs to estimate conditional distributions, enabling more accurate and scalable data synthesis. The results highlight the potential of prompting probability distributions to enhance the statistical fidelity of LLM-generated tabular data.

Generative Agent-Based Modeling (GABM) is an emerging simulation paradigm that combines the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models with traditional Agent-Based Modeling to replicate complex social behaviors, including interactions on social media. While prior work has focused on localized phenomena such as opinion formation and information spread, its potential to capture global network dynamics remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by analyzing GABM-based social media simulations through the lens of the Friendship Paradox (FP), a counterintuitive phenomenon where individuals, on average, have fewer friends than their friends. We propose a GABM framework for social media simulations, featuring generative agents that emulate real users with distinct personalities and interests. Using Twitter datasets on the US 2020 Election and the QAnon conspiracy, we show that the FP emerges naturally in GABM simulations. Consistent with real-world observations, the simulations unveil a hierarchical structure, where agents preferentially connect with others displaying higher activity or influence. Additionally, we find that infrequent connections primarily drive the FP, reflecting patterns in real networks. These findings validate GABM as a robust tool for modeling global social media phenomena and highlight its potential for advancing social science by enabling nuanced analysis of user behavior.

Retrosynthesis planning is a fundamental challenge in chemistry which aims at designing reaction pathways from commercially available starting materials to a target molecule. Each step in multi-step retrosynthesis planning requires accurate prediction of possible precursor molecules given the target molecule and confidence estimates to guide heuristic search algorithms. We model single-step retrosynthesis planning as a distribution learning problem in a discrete state space. First, we introduce the Markov Bridge Model, a generative framework aimed to approximate the dependency between two intractable discrete distributions accessible via a finite sample of coupled data points. Our framework is based on the concept of a Markov bridge, a Markov process pinned at its endpoints. Unlike diffusion-based methods, our Markov Bridge Model does not need a tractable noise distribution as a sampling proxy and directly operates on the input product molecules as samples from the intractable prior distribution. We then address the retrosynthesis planning problem with our novel framework and introduce RetroBridge, a template-free retrosynthesis modeling approach that achieves state-of-the-art results on standard evaluation benchmarks.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) is a learning problem where only aggregate level labels are available for groups of instances, called bags, during training, and the aim is to get the best performance at the instance-level on the test data. This setting arises in domains like advertising and medicine due to privacy considerations. We propose a novel algorithmic framework for this problem that iteratively performs two main steps. For the first step (Pseudo Labeling) in every iteration, we define a Gibbs distribution over binary instance labels that incorporates a) covariate information through the constraint that instances with similar covariates should have similar labels and b) the bag level aggregated label. We then use Belief Propagation (BP) to marginalize the Gibbs distribution to obtain pseudo labels. In the second step (Embedding Refinement), we use the pseudo labels to provide supervision for a learner that yields a better embedding. Further, we iterate on the two steps again by using the second step's embeddings as new covariates for the next iteration. In the final iteration, a classifier is trained using the pseudo labels. Our algorithm displays strong gains against several SOTA baselines (up to 15%) for the LLP Binary Classification problem on various dataset types - tabular and Image. We achieve these improvements with minimal computational overhead above standard supervised learning due to Belief Propagation, for large bag sizes, even for a million samples.

Relational pooling is a framework for building more expressive and permutation-invariant graph neural networks. However, there is limited understanding of the exact enhancement in the expressivity of RP and its connection with the Weisfeiler Lehman hierarchy. Starting from RP, we propose to explicitly assign labels to nodes as additional features to improve expressive power of message passing neural networks. The method is then extended to higher dimensional WL, leading to a novel k,l-WL algorithm, a more general framework than k-WL. Theoretically, we analyze the expressivity of k,l-WL with respect to k and l and unifies it with a great number of subgraph GNNs. Complexity reduction methods are also systematically discussed to build powerful and practical k,l-GNN instances. We theoretically and experimentally prove that our method is universally compatible and capable of improving the expressivity of any base GNN model. Our k,l-GNNs achieve superior performance on many synthetic and real-world datasets, which verifies the effectiveness of our framework.

Feature selection is playing an increasingly significant role with respect to many computer vision applications spanning from object recognition to visual object tracking. However, most of the recent solutions in feature selection are not robust across different and heterogeneous set of data. In this paper, we address this issue proposing a robust probabilistic latent graph-based feature selection algorithm that performs the ranking step while considering all the possible subsets of features, as paths on a graph, bypassing the combinatorial problem analytically. An appealing characteristic of the approach is that it aims to discover an abstraction behind low-level sensory data, that is, relevancy. Relevancy is modelled as a latent variable in a PLSA-inspired generative process that allows the investigation of the importance of a feature when injected into an arbitrary set of cues. The proposed method has been tested on ten diverse benchmarks, and compared against eleven state of the art feature selection methods. Results show that the proposed approach attains the highest performance levels across many different scenarios and difficulties, thereby confirming its strong robustness while setting a new state of the art in feature selection domain.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

Learning graph generative models over latent spaces has received less attention compared to models that operate on the original data space and has so far demonstrated lacklustre performance. We present GLAD a latent space graph generative model. Unlike most previous latent space graph generative models, GLAD operates on a discrete latent space that preserves to a significant extent the discrete nature of the graph structures making no unnatural assumptions such as latent space continuity. We learn the prior of our discrete latent space by adapting diffusion bridges to its structure. By operating over an appropriately constructed latent space we avoid relying on decompositions that are often used in models that operate in the original data space. We present experiments on a series of graph benchmark datasets which clearly show the superiority of the discrete latent space and obtain state of the art graph generative performance, making GLAD the first latent space graph generative model with competitive performance. Our source code is published at: https://github.com/v18nguye/GLAD.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

Learning the behavior of large agent populations is an important task for numerous research areas. Although the field of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has made significant progress towards solving these systems, solutions for many agents often remain computationally infeasible and lack theoretical guarantees. Mean Field Games (MFGs) address both of these issues and can be extended to Graphon MFGs (GMFGs) to include network structures between agents. Despite their merits, the real world applicability of GMFGs is limited by the fact that graphons only capture dense graphs. Since most empirically observed networks show some degree of sparsity, such as power law graphs, the GMFG framework is insufficient for capturing these network topologies. Thus, we introduce the novel concept of Graphex MFGs (GXMFGs) which builds on the graph theoretical concept of graphexes. Graphexes are the limiting objects to sparse graph sequences that also have other desirable features such as the small world property. Learning equilibria in these games is challenging due to the rich and sparse structure of the underlying graphs. To tackle these challenges, we design a new learning algorithm tailored to the GXMFG setup. This hybrid graphex learning approach leverages that the system mainly consists of a highly connected core and a sparse periphery. After defining the system and providing a theoretical analysis, we state our learning approach and demonstrate its learning capabilities on both synthetic graphs and real-world networks. This comparison shows that our GXMFG learning algorithm successfully extends MFGs to a highly relevant class of hard, realistic learning problems that are not accurately addressed by current MARL and MFG methods.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

The Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) remains a fundamental challenge in combinatorial optimization, inspiring diverse algorithmic strategies. This paper revisits the "heatmap + Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)" paradigm that has recently gained traction for learning-based TSP solutions. Within this framework, heatmaps encode the likelihood of edges forming part of the optimal tour, and MCTS refines this probabilistic guidance to discover optimal solutions. Contemporary approaches have predominantly emphasized the refinement of heatmap generation through sophisticated learning models, inadvertently sidelining the critical role of MCTS. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals two pivotal insights: 1) The configuration of MCTS strategies profoundly influences the solution quality, demanding meticulous tuning to leverage their full potential; 2) Our findings demonstrate that a rudimentary and parameter-free heatmap, derived from the intrinsic k-nearest nature of TSP, can rival or even surpass the performance of complicated heatmaps, with strong generalizability across various scales. Empirical evaluations across various TSP scales underscore the efficacy of our approach, achieving competitive results. These observations challenge the prevailing focus on heatmap sophistication, advocating a reevaluation of the paradigm to harness both components synergistically. Our code is available at: https://github.com/LOGO-CUHKSZ/rethink_mcts_tsp.

Despite the success of autoregressive large language models in text generation, it remains a major challenge to generate text that satisfies complex constraints: sampling from the conditional distribution {Pr}(text | alpha) is intractable for even the simplest lexical constraints alpha. To overcome this challenge, we propose to use tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) to impose lexical constraints in autoregressive text generation models, which we refer to as GeLaTo (Generating Language with Tractable Constraints). To demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework, we use distilled hidden Markov models, where we can efficiently compute {Pr}(text | alpha), to guide autoregressive generation from GPT2. GeLaTo achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging benchmarks for constrained text generation (e.g., CommonGen), beating various strong baselines by a large margin. Our work not only opens up new avenues for controlling large language models but also motivates the development of more expressive TPMs.

Local graph clustering methods aim to detect small clusters in very large graphs without the need to process the whole graph. They are fundamental and scalable tools for a wide range of tasks such as local community detection, node ranking and node embedding. While prior work on local graph clustering mainly focuses on graphs without node attributes, modern real-world graph datasets typically come with node attributes that provide valuable additional information. We present a simple local graph clustering algorithm for graphs with node attributes, based on the idea of diffusing mass locally in the graph while accounting for both structural and attribute proximities. Using high-dimensional concentration results, we provide statistical guarantees on the performance of the algorithm for the recovery of a target cluster with a single seed node. We give conditions under which a target cluster generated from a fairly general contextual random graph model, which includes both the stochastic block model and the planted cluster model as special cases, can be fully recovered with bounded false positives. Empirically, we validate all theoretical claims using synthetic data, and we show that incorporating node attributes leads to superior local clustering performances using real-world graph datasets.

We propose a novel random walk-based algorithm for unbiased estimation of arbitrary functions of a weighted adjacency matrix, coined universal graph random features (u-GRFs). This includes many of the most popular examples of kernels defined on the nodes of a graph. Our algorithm enjoys subquadratic time complexity with respect to the number of nodes, overcoming the notoriously prohibitive cubic scaling of exact graph kernel evaluation. It can also be trivially distributed across machines, permitting learning on much larger networks. At the heart of the algorithm is a modulation function which upweights or downweights the contribution from different random walks depending on their lengths. We show that by parameterising it with a neural network we can obtain u-GRFs that give higher-quality kernel estimates or perform efficient, scalable kernel learning. We provide robust theoretical analysis and support our findings with experiments including pointwise estimation of fixed graph kernels, solving non-homogeneous graph ordinary differential equations, node clustering and kernel regression on triangular meshes.

Multitask Gaussian process (MTGP) is powerful for joint learning of multiple tasks with complicated correlation patterns. However, due to the assembling of additive independent latent functions, all current MTGPs including the salient linear model of coregionalization (LMC) and convolution frameworks cannot effectively represent and learn the hierarchical latent interactions between its latent functions. In this paper, we further investigate the interactions in LMC of MTGP and then propose a novel kernel representation of the hierarchical interactions, which ameliorates both the expressiveness and the interpretability of MTGP. Specifically, we express the interaction as a product of function interaction and coefficient interaction. The function interaction is modeled by using cross convolution of latent functions. The coefficient interaction between the LMCs is described as a cross coregionalization term. We validate that considering the interactions can promote knowledge transferring in MTGP and compare our approach with some state-of-the-art MTGPs on both synthetic- and real-world datasets.

We study the problem of optimally projecting the transition matrix of a finite ergodic multivariate Markov chain onto a lower-dimensional state space. Specifically, we seek to construct a projected Markov chain that optimizes various information-theoretic criteria under cardinality constraints. These criteria include entropy rate, information-theoretic distance to factorizability, independence, and stationarity. We formulate these tasks as best subset selection problems over multivariate Markov chains and leverage the submodular (or supermodular) structure of the objective functions to develop efficient greedy-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees. We extend our analysis to k-submodular settings and introduce a generalized version of the distorted greedy algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the theory and algorithms through extensive numerical experiments with publicly available code on multivariate Markov chains associated with the Bernoulli-Laplace and Curie-Weiss model.

Most real-world graphs exhibit a hierarchical structure, which is often overlooked by existing graph generation methods. To address this limitation, we propose a novel graph generative network that captures the hierarchical nature of graphs and successively generates the graph sub-structures in a coarse-to-fine fashion. At each level of hierarchy, this model generates communities in parallel, followed by the prediction of cross-edges between communities using separate neural networks. This modular approach enables scalable graph generation for large and complex graphs. Moreover, we model the output distribution of edges in the hierarchical graph with a multinomial distribution and derive a recursive factorization for this distribution. This enables us to generate community graphs with integer-valued edge weights in an autoregressive manner. Empirical studies demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our proposed generative model, achieving state-of-the-art performance in terms of graph quality across various benchmark datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/Karami-m/HiGen_main.

With the emergence of data marketplaces, the demand for methods to assess the value of data has increased significantly. While numerous techniques have been proposed for this purpose, none have specifically addressed graphs as the main data modality. Graphs are widely used across various fields, ranging from chemical molecules to social networks. In this study, we break down graphs into two main components: structural and featural, and we focus on evaluating data without relying on specific task-related metrics, making it applicable in practical scenarios where validation requirements may be lacking. We introduce a novel framework called blind message passing, which aligns the seller's and buyer's graphs using a shared node permutation based on graph matching. This allows us to utilize the graph Wasserstein distance to quantify the differences in the structural distribution of graph datasets, called the structural disparities. We then consider featural aspects of buyers' and sellers' graphs for data valuation and capture their statistical similarities and differences, referred to as relevance and diversity, respectively. Our approach ensures that buyers and sellers remain unaware of each other's datasets. Our experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in capturing the relevance, diversity, and structural disparities of seller data for buyers, particularly in graph-based data valuation scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and GPT4, are making new waves in the field of natural language processing and artificial intelligence, due to their emergent ability and generalizability. However, LLMs are black-box models, which often fall short of capturing and accessing factual knowledge. In contrast, Knowledge Graphs (KGs), Wikipedia and Huapu for example, are structured knowledge models that explicitly store rich factual knowledge. KGs can enhance LLMs by providing external knowledge for inference and interpretability. Meanwhile, KGs are difficult to construct and evolving by nature, which challenges the existing methods in KGs to generate new facts and represent unseen knowledge. Therefore, it is complementary to unify LLMs and KGs together and simultaneously leverage their advantages. In this article, we present a forward-looking roadmap for the unification of LLMs and KGs. Our roadmap consists of three general frameworks, namely, 1) KG-enhanced LLMs, which incorporate KGs during the pre-training and inference phases of LLMs, or for the purpose of enhancing understanding of the knowledge learned by LLMs; 2) LLM-augmented KGs, that leverage LLMs for different KG tasks such as embedding, completion, construction, graph-to-text generation, and question answering; and 3) Synergized LLMs + KGs, in which LLMs and KGs play equal roles and work in a mutually beneficial way to enhance both LLMs and KGs for bidirectional reasoning driven by both data and knowledge. We review and summarize existing efforts within these three frameworks in our roadmap and pinpoint their future research directions.

Being the most cutting-edge generative methods, diffusion methods have shown great advances in wide generation tasks. Among them, graph generation attracts significant research attention for its broad application in real life. In our survey, we systematically and comprehensively review on diffusion-based graph generative methods. We first make a review on three mainstream paradigms of diffusion methods, which are denoising diffusion probabilistic models, score-based genrative models, and stochastic differential equations. Then we further categorize and introduce the latest applications of diffusion models on graphs. In the end, we point out some limitations of current studies and future directions of future explorations. The summary of existing methods metioned in this survey is in https://github.com/zhejiangzhuque/Diffusion-based-Graph-Generative-Methods.

Diffusion models have established themselves as state-of-the-art generative models across various data modalities, including images and videos, due to their ability to accurately approximate complex data distributions. Unlike traditional generative approaches such as VAEs and GANs, diffusion models employ a progressive denoising process that transforms noise into meaningful data over multiple iterative steps. This gradual approach enhances their expressiveness and generation quality. Not only that, diffusion models have also been shown to extract meaningful representations from data while learning to generate samples. Despite their success, the application of diffusion models to graph-structured data remains relatively unexplored, primarily due to the discrete nature of graphs, which necessitates discrete diffusion processes distinct from the continuous methods used in other domains. In this work, we leverage the representational capabilities of diffusion models to learn meaningful embeddings for graph data. By training a discrete diffusion model within an autoencoder framework, we enable both effective autoencoding and representation learning tailored to the unique characteristics of graph-structured data. We only need the encoder at the end to extract representations. Our approach demonstrates the potential of discrete diffusion models to be used for graph representation learning.

We propose the convergent graph solver (CGS), a deep learning method that learns iterative mappings to predict the properties of a graph system at its stationary state (fixed point) with guaranteed convergence. CGS systematically computes the fixed points of a target graph system and decodes them to estimate the stationary properties of the system without the prior knowledge of existing solvers or intermediate solutions. The forward propagation of CGS proceeds in three steps: (1) constructing the input dependent linear contracting iterative maps, (2) computing the fixed-points of the linear maps, and (3) decoding the fixed-points to estimate the properties. The contractivity of the constructed linear maps guarantees the existence and uniqueness of the fixed points following the Banach fixed point theorem. To train CGS efficiently, we also derive a tractable analytical expression for its gradient by leveraging the implicit function theorem. We evaluate the performance of CGS by applying it to various network-analytic and graph benchmark problems. The results indicate that CGS has competitive capabilities for predicting the stationary properties of graph systems, irrespective of whether the target systems are linear or non-linear. CGS also shows high performance for graph classification problems where the existence or the meaning of a fixed point is hard to be clearly defined, which highlights the potential of CGS as a general graph neural network architecture.

Recently, partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs), which only consider a subset of the parameters to be stochastic, were shown to perform competitively with full Bayesian neural networks. However, pBNNs are often multi-modal in the latent-variable space and thus challenging to approximate with parametric models. To address this problem, we propose an efficient sampling-based training strategy, wherein the training of a pBNN is formulated as simulating a Feynman--Kac model. We then describe variations of sequential Monte Carlo samplers that allow us to simultaneously estimate the parameters and the latent posterior distribution of this model at a tractable computational cost. We show on various synthetic and real-world datasets that our proposed training scheme outperforms the state of the art in terms of predictive performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications where LLM inputs may span many different tasks. Recent work has found that the choice of LLM is consequential, and different LLMs may be good for different input samples. Prior approaches have thus explored how engineers might select an LLM to use for each sample (i.e. routing). While existing routing methods mostly require training auxiliary models on human-annotated data, our work explores whether it is possible to perform unsupervised routing. We propose Smoothie, a weak supervision-inspired routing approach that requires no labeled data. Given a set of outputs from different LLMs, Smoothie constructs a latent variable graphical model over embedding representations of observable LLM outputs and unknown "true" outputs. Using this graphical model, we estimate sample-dependent quality scores for each LLM, and route each sample to the LLM with the highest corresponding score. We find that Smoothie's LLM quality-scores correlate with ground-truth model quality (correctly identifying the optimal model on 9/14 tasks), and that Smoothie outperforms baselines for routing by up to 10 points accuracy.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

Current graph neural networks (GNNs) that tackle node classification on graphs tend to only focus on nodewise scores and are solely evaluated by nodewise metrics. This limits uncertainty estimation on graphs since nodewise marginals do not fully characterize the joint distribution given the graph structure. In this work, we propose novel edgewise metrics, namely the edgewise expected calibration error (ECE) and the agree/disagree ECEs, which provide criteria for uncertainty estimation on graphs beyond the nodewise setting. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed edgewise metrics can complement the nodewise results and yield additional insights. Moreover, we show that GNN models which consider the structured prediction problem on graphs tend to have better uncertainty estimations, which illustrates the benefit of going beyond the nodewise setting.

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a recognition model to represent approximate posterior distributions, and that acts as a stochastic encoder of the data. We develop stochastic back-propagation -- rules for back-propagation through stochastic variables -- and use this to develop an algorithm that allows for joint optimisation of the parameters of both the generative and recognition model. We demonstrate on several real-world data sets that the model generates realistic samples, provides accurate imputations of missing data and is a useful tool for high-dimensional data visualisation.

Process Reward Modeling (PRM) is critical for complex reasoning and decision-making tasks where the accuracy of intermediate steps significantly influences the overall outcome. Existing PRM approaches, primarily framed as classification problems, employ cross-entropy loss to independently evaluate each step's correctness. This method can lead to suboptimal reward distribution and does not adequately address the interdependencies among steps. To address these limitations, we introduce the Process Q-value Model (PQM), a novel framework that redefines PRM in the context of a Markov Decision Process. PQM optimizes Q-value rankings based on a novel comparative loss function, enhancing the model's ability to capture the intricate dynamics among sequential decisions. This approach provides a more granular and theoretically grounded methodology for process rewards. Our extensive empirical evaluations across various sampling policies, language model backbones, and multi-step reasoning benchmarks show that PQM outperforms classification-based PRMs. The effectiveness of the comparative loss function is highlighted in our comprehensive ablation studies, confirming PQM's practical efficacy and theoretical advantage.

In this work, we introduce ChemBFN, a language model that handles chemistry tasks based on Bayesian flow networks working on discrete data. A new accuracy schedule is proposed to improve the sampling quality by significantly reducing the reconstruction loss. We show evidence that our method is appropriate for generating molecules with satisfied diversity even when a smaller number of sampling steps is used. A classifier-free guidance method is adapted for conditional generation. It is also worthwhile to point out that after generative training, our model can be fine-tuned on regression and classification tasks with the state-of-the-art performance, which opens the gate of building all-in-one models in a single module style. Our model has been open sourced at https://github.com/Augus1999/bayesian-flow-network-for-chemistry.

We present a differentiable approach to learn the probabilistic factors used for inference by a nonparametric belief propagation algorithm. Existing nonparametric belief propagation methods rely on domain-specific features encoded in the probabilistic factors of a graphical model. In this work, we replace each crafted factor with a differentiable neural network enabling the factors to be learned using an efficient optimization routine from labeled data. By combining differentiable neural networks with an efficient belief propagation algorithm, our method learns to maintain a set of marginal posterior samples using end-to-end training. We evaluate our differentiable nonparametric belief propagation (DNBP) method on a set of articulated pose tracking tasks and compare performance with learned baselines. Results from these experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of using learned factors for tracking and suggest the practical advantage over hand-crafted approaches. The project webpage is available at: https://progress.eecs.umich.edu/projects/dnbp/ .

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable promise for democratizing automated reasoning by generating formal specifications. However, a fundamental tension exists: LLMs are probabilistic, while formal verification demands deterministic guarantees. This paper addresses this epistemological gap by comprehensively investigating failure modes and uncertainty quantification (UQ) in LLM-generated formal artifacts. Our systematic evaluation of five frontier LLMs reveals Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) based autoformalization's domain-specific impact on accuracy (from +34.8% on logical tasks to -44.5% on factual ones), with known UQ techniques like the entropy of token probabilities failing to identify these errors. We introduce a probabilistic context-free grammar (PCFG) framework to model LLM outputs, yielding a refined uncertainty taxonomy. We find uncertainty signals are task-dependent (e.g., grammar entropy for logic, AUROC>0.93). Finally, a lightweight fusion of these signals enables selective verification, drastically reducing errors (14-100%) with minimal abstention, transforming LLM-driven formalization into a reliable engineering discipline.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that are based on the message passing (MP) paradigm generally exchange information between 1-hop neighbors to build node representations at each layer. In principle, such networks are not able to capture long-range interactions (LRI) that may be desired or necessary for learning a given task on graphs. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in development of Transformer-based methods for graphs that can consider full node connectivity beyond the original sparse structure, thus enabling the modeling of LRI. However, MP-GNNs that simply rely on 1-hop message passing often fare better in several existing graph benchmarks when combined with positional feature representations, among other innovations, hence limiting the perceived utility and ranking of Transformer-like architectures. Here, we present the Long Range Graph Benchmark (LRGB) with 5 graph learning datasets: PascalVOC-SP, COCO-SP, PCQM-Contact, Peptides-func and Peptides-struct that arguably require LRI reasoning to achieve strong performance in a given task. We benchmark both baseline GNNs and Graph Transformer networks to verify that the models which capture long-range dependencies perform significantly better on these tasks. Therefore, these datasets are suitable for benchmarking and exploration of MP-GNNs and Graph Transformer architectures that are intended to capture LRI.

Molecular relational learning, whose goal is to learn the interaction behavior between molecular pairs, got a surge of interest in molecular sciences due to its wide range of applications. Recently, graph neural networks have recently shown great success in molecular relational learning by modeling a molecule as a graph structure, and considering atom-level interactions between two molecules. Despite their success, existing molecular relational learning methods tend to overlook the nature of chemistry, i.e., a chemical compound is composed of multiple substructures such as functional groups that cause distinctive chemical reactions. In this work, we propose a novel relational learning framework, called CGIB, that predicts the interaction behavior between a pair of graphs by detecting core subgraphs therein. The main idea is, given a pair of graphs, to find a subgraph from a graph that contains the minimal sufficient information regarding the task at hand conditioned on the paired graph based on the principle of conditional graph information bottleneck. We argue that our proposed method mimics the nature of chemical reactions, i.e., the core substructure of a molecule varies depending on which other molecule it interacts with. Extensive experiments on various tasks with real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of CGIB over state-of-the-art baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/Namkyeong/CGIB.

It has been shown that a message passing neural networks (MPNNs), a popular family of neural networks for graph-structured data, are at most as expressive as the first-order Weisfeiler-Leman (1-WL) graph isomorphism test, which has motivated the development of more expressive architectures. In this work, we analyze if the limited expressiveness is actually a limiting factor for MPNNs and other WL-based models in standard graph datasets. Interestingly, we find that the expressiveness of WL is sufficient to identify almost all graphs in most datasets. Moreover, we find that the classification accuracy upper bounds are often close to 100\%. Furthermore, we find that simple WL-based neural networks and several MPNNs can be fitted to several datasets. In sum, we conclude that the performance of WL/MPNNs is not limited by their expressiveness in practice.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained the ability to assimilate human knowledge and facilitate natural language interactions with both humans and other LLMs. However, despite their impressive achievements, LLMs have not made significant advancements in the realm of graph machine learning. This limitation arises because graphs encapsulate distinct relational data, making it challenging to transform them into natural language that LLMs understand. In this paper, we bridge this gap with a novel framework, GraphText, that translates graphs into natural language. GraphText derives a graph-syntax tree for each graph that encapsulates both the node attributes and inter-node relationships. Traversal of the tree yields a graph text sequence, which is then processed by an LLM to treat graph tasks as text generation tasks. Notably, GraphText offers multiple advantages. It introduces training-free graph reasoning: even without training on graph data, GraphText with ChatGPT can achieve on par with, or even surpassing, the performance of supervised-trained graph neural networks through in-context learning (ICL). Furthermore, GraphText paves the way for interactive graph reasoning, allowing both humans and LLMs to communicate with the model seamlessly using natural language. These capabilities underscore the vast, yet-to-be-explored potential of LLMs in the domain of graph machine learning.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

This paper introduces the Univariate Gaussian Mixture Model Neural Network (uGMM-NN), a novel neural architecture that embeds probabilistic reasoning directly into the computational units of deep networks. Unlike traditional neurons, which apply weighted sums followed by fixed nonlinearities, each uGMM-NN node parameterizes its activations as a univariate Gaussian mixture, with learnable means, variances, and mixing coefficients. This design enables richer representations by capturing multimodality and uncertainty at the level of individual neurons, while retaining the scalability of standard feedforward networks. We demonstrate that uGMM-NN can achieve competitive discriminative performance compared to conventional multilayer perceptrons, while additionally offering a probabilistic interpretation of activations. The proposed framework provides a foundation for integrating uncertainty-aware components into modern neural architectures, opening new directions for both discriminative and generative modeling.

Graph generation with Machine Learning is an open problem with applications in various research fields. In this work, we propose to cast the generative process of a graph into a sequential one, relying on a node ordering procedure. We use this sequential process to design a novel generative model composed of two recurrent neural networks that learn to predict the edges of graphs: the first network generates one endpoint of each edge, while the second network generates the other endpoint conditioned on the state of the first. We test our approach extensively on five different datasets, comparing with two well-known baselines coming from graph literature, and two recurrent approaches, one of which holds state of the art performances. Evaluation is conducted considering quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the generated samples. Results show that our approach is able to yield novel, and unique graphs originating from very different distributions, while retaining structural properties very similar to those in the training sample. Under the proposed evaluation framework, our approach is able to reach performances comparable to the current state of the art on the graph generation task.

Combinatorial optimization (CO) problems are often NP-hard and thus out of reach for exact algorithms, making them a tempting domain to apply machine learning methods. The highly structured constraints in these problems can hinder either optimization or sampling directly in the solution space. On the other hand, GFlowNets have recently emerged as a powerful machinery to efficiently sample from composite unnormalized densities sequentially and have the potential to amortize such solution-searching processes in CO, as well as generate diverse solution candidates. In this paper, we design Markov decision processes (MDPs) for different combinatorial problems and propose to train conditional GFlowNets to sample from the solution space. Efficient training techniques are also developed to benefit long-range credit assignment. Through extensive experiments on a variety of different CO tasks with synthetic and realistic data, we demonstrate that GFlowNet policies can efficiently find high-quality solutions.

To characterize the location (mean, median) of a set of graphs, one needs a notion of centrality that is adapted to metric spaces, since graph sets are not Euclidean spaces. A standard approach is to consider the Frechet mean. In this work, we equip a set of graphs with the pseudometric defined by the norm between the eigenvalues of their respective adjacency matrix. Unlike the edit distance, this pseudometric reveals structural changes at multiple scales, and is well adapted to studying various statistical problems for graph-valued data. We describe an algorithm to compute an approximation to the sample Frechet mean of a set of undirected unweighted graphs with a fixed size using this pseudometric.

This systematic review explores the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in Combinatorial Optimization (CO). We report our findings using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We conduct a literature search via Scopus and Google Scholar, examining over 2,000 publications. We assess publications against four inclusion and four exclusion criteria related to their language, research focus, publication year, and type. Eventually, we select 103 studies. We classify these studies into semantic categories and topics to provide a comprehensive overview of the field, including the tasks performed by LLMs, the architectures of LLMs, the existing datasets specifically designed for evaluating LLMs in CO, and the field of application. Finally, we identify future directions for leveraging LLMs in this field.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

The recent trend towards Personalized Federated Learning (PFL) has garnered significant attention as it allows for the training of models that are tailored to each client while maintaining data privacy. However, current PFL techniques primarily focus on modeling the conditional distribution heterogeneity (i.e. concept shift), which can result in suboptimal performance when the distribution of input data across clients diverges (i.e. covariate shift). Additionally, these techniques often lack the ability to adapt to unseen data, further limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, FedGMM, which utilizes Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to effectively fit the input data distributions across diverse clients. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation utilizing a federated Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which is solved in closed form and does not assume gradient similarity. Furthermore, FedGMM possesses an additional advantage of adapting to new clients with minimal overhead, and it also enables uncertainty quantification. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method in both PFL classification and novel sample detection.

Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and GPT-4, are versatile and can solve different tasks due to their emergent ability and generalizability. However, LLMs sometimes lack domain-specific knowledge to perform tasks, which would also cause hallucination during inference. In some previous works, additional modules like graph neural networks (GNNs) are trained on retrieved knowledge from external knowledge bases, aiming to mitigate the problem of lacking domain-specific knowledge. However, incorporating additional modules: 1) would need retraining additional modules when encountering novel domains; 2) would become a bottleneck since LLMs' strong abilities are not fully utilized for retrieval. In this paper, we propose a paradigm, termed Knowledge Solver (KSL), to teach LLMs to search for essential knowledge from external knowledge bases by harnessing their own strong generalizability. Specifically, we design a simple yet effective prompt to transform retrieval into a multi-hop decision sequence, which empowers LLMs with searching knowledge ability in zero-shot manner. Additionally, KSL is able to provide complete retrieval paths and therefore increase explainability of LLMs' reasoning processes. We conduct experiments on three datasets: CommonsenseQA, OpenbookQA, and MedQA-USMLE, and found that our approach improves LLM baseline performance by a relatively large margin.

Interpretable models are designed to make decisions in a human-interpretable manner. Representatively, Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) follow a two-step process of concept prediction and class prediction based on the predicted concepts. CBM provides explanations with high-level concepts derived from concept predictions; thus, reliable concept predictions are important for trustworthiness. In this study, we address the ambiguity issue that can harm reliability. While the existence of a concept can often be ambiguous in the data, CBM predicts concepts deterministically without considering this ambiguity. To provide a reliable interpretation against this ambiguity, we propose Probabilistic Concept Bottleneck Models (ProbCBM). By leveraging probabilistic concept embeddings, ProbCBM models uncertainty in concept prediction and provides explanations based on the concept and its corresponding uncertainty. This uncertainty enhances the reliability of the explanations. Furthermore, as class uncertainty is derived from concept uncertainty in ProbCBM, we can explain class uncertainty by means of concept uncertainty. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ejkim47/prob-cbm.

We consider the problem of graph matching, or learning vertex correspondence, between two correlated stochastic block models (SBMs). The graph matching problem arises in various fields, including computer vision, natural language processing and bioinformatics, and in particular, matching graphs with inherent community structure has significance related to de-anonymization of correlated social networks. Compared to the correlated Erdos-Renyi (ER) model, where various efficient algorithms have been developed, among which a few algorithms have been proven to achieve the exact matching with constant edge correlation, no low-order polynomial algorithm has been known to achieve exact matching for the correlated SBMs with constant correlation. In this work, we propose an efficient algorithm for matching graphs with community structure, based on the comparison between partition trees rooted from each vertex, by extending the idea of Mao et al. (2021) to graphs with communities. The partition tree divides the large neighborhoods of each vertex into disjoint subsets using their edge statistics to different communities. Our algorithm is the first low-order polynomial-time algorithm achieving exact matching between two correlated SBMs with high probability in dense graphs.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) consist of links that describe relationships between entities. Due to the difficulty of manually enumerating all relationships between entities, automatically completing them is essential for KGs. Knowledge Graph Completion (KGC) is a task that infers unseen relationships between entities in a KG. Traditional embedding-based KGC methods, such as RESCAL, TransE, DistMult, ComplEx, RotatE, HAKE, HousE, etc., infer missing links using only the knowledge from training data. In contrast, the recent Pre-trained Language Model (PLM)-based KGC utilizes knowledge obtained during pre-training. Therefore, PLM-based KGC can estimate missing links between entities by reusing memorized knowledge from pre-training without inference. This approach is problematic because building KGC models aims to infer unseen links between entities. However, conventional evaluations in KGC do not consider inference and memorization abilities separately. Thus, a PLM-based KGC method, which achieves high performance in current KGC evaluations, may be ineffective in practical applications. To address this issue, we analyze whether PLM-based KGC methods make inferences or merely access memorized knowledge. For this purpose, we propose a method for constructing synthetic datasets specified in this analysis and conclude that PLMs acquire the inference abilities required for KGC through pre-training, even though the performance improvements mostly come from textual information of entities and relations.

Synthesis procedures play a critical role in materials research, as they directly affect material properties. With data-driven approaches increasingly accelerating materials discovery, there is growing interest in extracting synthesis procedures from scientific literature as structured data. However, existing studies often rely on rigid, domain-specific schemas with predefined fields for structuring synthesis procedures or assume that synthesis procedures are linear sequences of operations, which limits their ability to capture the structural complexity of real-world procedures. To address these limitations, we adopt PROV-DM, an international standard for provenance information, which supports flexible, graph-based modeling of procedures. We present MatPROV, a dataset of PROV-DM-compliant synthesis procedures extracted from scientific literature using large language models. MatPROV captures structural complexities and causal relationships among materials, operations, and conditions through visually intuitive directed graphs. This representation enables machine-interpretable synthesis knowledge, opening opportunities for future research such as automated synthesis planning and optimization.

Hypergraphs offer a powerful framework for modeling higher-order interactions that traditional pairwise graphs cannot fully capture. However, practical constraints often lead to their simplification into projected graphs, resulting in substantial information loss and ambiguity in representing higher-order relationships. In this work, we propose MARIOH, a supervised approach for reconstructing the original hypergraph from its projected graph by leveraging edge multiplicity. To overcome the difficulties posed by the large search space, MARIOH integrates several key ideas: (a) identifying provable size-2 hyperedges, which reduces the candidate search space, (b) predicting the likelihood of candidates being hyperedges by utilizing both structural and multiplicity-related features, and (c) not only targeting promising hyperedge candidates but also examining less confident ones to explore alternative possibilities. Together, these ideas enable MARIOH to efficiently and effectively explore the search space. In our experiments using 10 real-world datasets, MARIOH achieves up to 74.51% higher reconstruction accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success and demonstrated superior performance across various tasks, including natural language processing (NLP), weather forecasting, biological protein folding, text generation, and solving mathematical problems. However, many real-world data exhibit highly non-Euclidean latent hierarchical anatomy, such as protein networks, transportation networks, financial networks, brain networks, and linguistic structures or syntactic trees in natural languages. Effectively learning intrinsic semantic entailment and hierarchical relationships from these raw, unstructured input data using LLMs remains an underexplored area. Due to its effectiveness in modeling tree-like hierarchical structures, hyperbolic geometry -- a non-Euclidean space -- has rapidly gained popularity as an expressive latent representation space for complex data modeling across domains such as graphs, images, languages, and multi-modal data. Here, we provide a comprehensive and contextual exposition of recent advancements in LLMs that leverage hyperbolic geometry as a representation space to enhance semantic representation learning and multi-scale reasoning. Specifically, the paper presents a taxonomy of the principal techniques of Hyperbolic LLMs (HypLLMs) in terms of four main categories: (1) hyperbolic LLMs through exp/log maps; (2) hyperbolic fine-tuned models; (3) fully hyperbolic LLMs, and (4) hyperbolic state-space models. We also explore crucial potential applications and outline future research directions. A repository of key papers, models, datasets, and code implementations is available at https://github.com/sarangp2402/Hyperbolic-LLM-Models/tree/main.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated to be powerful in modeling graph-structured data. However, training GNNs usually requires abundant task-specific labeled data, which is often arduously expensive to obtain. One effective way to reduce the labeling effort is to pre-train an expressive GNN model on unlabeled data with self-supervision and then transfer the learned model to downstream tasks with only a few labels. In this paper, we present the GPT-GNN framework to initialize GNNs by generative pre-training. GPT-GNN introduces a self-supervised attributed graph generation task to pre-train a GNN so that it can capture the structural and semantic properties of the graph. We factorize the likelihood of the graph generation into two components: 1) Attribute Generation and 2) Edge Generation. By modeling both components, GPT-GNN captures the inherent dependency between node attributes and graph structure during the generative process. Comprehensive experiments on the billion-scale Open Academic Graph and Amazon recommendation data demonstrate that GPT-GNN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art GNN models without pre-training by up to 9.1% across various downstream tasks.

Supervised learning on molecules has incredible potential to be useful in chemistry, drug discovery, and materials science. Luckily, several promising and closely related neural network models invariant to molecular symmetries have already been described in the literature. These models learn a message passing algorithm and aggregation procedure to compute a function of their entire input graph. At this point, the next step is to find a particularly effective variant of this general approach and apply it to chemical prediction benchmarks until we either solve them or reach the limits of the approach. In this paper, we reformulate existing models into a single common framework we call Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs) and explore additional novel variations within this framework. Using MPNNs we demonstrate state of the art results on an important molecular property prediction benchmark; these results are strong enough that we believe future work should focus on datasets with larger molecules or more accurate ground truth labels.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable generalization capability with exceptional performance in various language modeling tasks. However, they still exhibit inherent limitations in precisely capturing and returning grounded knowledge. While existing work has explored utilizing knowledge graphs to enhance language modeling via joint training and customized model architectures, applying this to LLMs is problematic owing to their large number of parameters and high computational cost. In addition, how to leverage the pre-trained LLMs and avoid training a customized model from scratch remains an open question. In this work, we propose Graph Neural Prompting (GNP), a novel plug-and-play method to assist pre-trained LLMs in learning beneficial knowledge from KGs. GNP encompasses various designs, including a standard graph neural network encoder, a cross-modality pooling module, a domain projector, and a self-supervised link prediction objective. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate the superiority of GNP on both commonsense and biomedical reasoning tasks across different LLM sizes and settings.

Data-driven techniques have a large potential to transform and accelerate the chemical sciences. However, chemical sciences also pose the unique challenge of very diverse, small, fuzzy datasets that are difficult to leverage in conventional machine learning approaches completely. A new class of models, general-purpose models (GPMs) such as large language models, have shown the ability to solve tasks they have not been directly trained on, and to flexibly operate with low amounts of data in different formats. In this review, we discuss fundamental building principles of GPMs and review recent applications of those models in the chemical sciences across the entire scientific process. While many of these applications are still in the prototype phase, we expect that the increasing interest in GPMs will make many of them mature in the coming years.

Graph-structured data plays a vital role in numerous domains, such as social networks, citation networks, commonsense reasoning graphs and knowledge graphs. While graph neural networks have been employed for graph processing, recent advancements have explored integrating large language models for graph-based tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel approach named Learnable Graph Pooling Token (LGPT), which addresses the limitations of the scalability issues in node-level projection and information loss in graph-level projection. LGPT enables flexible and efficient graph representation by introducing learnable parameters that act as tokens in large language models, balancing fine-grained and global graph information. Additionally, we investigate an Early Query Fusion technique, which fuses query context before constructing the graph representation, leading to more effective graph embeddings. Our method achieves a 4.13\% performance improvement on the GraphQA benchmark without training the large language model, demonstrating significant gains in handling complex textual-attributed graph data.

Graph mining is an important area in data mining and machine learning that involves extracting valuable information from graph-structured data. In recent years, significant progress has been made in this field through the development of graph neural networks (GNNs). However, GNNs are still deficient in generalizing to diverse graph data. Aiming to this issue, Large Language Models (LLMs) could provide new solutions for graph mining tasks with their superior semantic understanding. In this review, we systematically review the combination and application techniques of LLMs and GNNs and present a novel taxonomy for research in this interdisciplinary field, which involves three main categories: GNN-driving-LLM, LLM-driving-GNN, and GNN-LLM-co-driving. Within this framework, we reveal the capabilities of LLMs in enhancing graph feature extraction as well as improving the effectiveness of downstream tasks such as node classification, link prediction, and community detection. Although LLMs have demonstrated their great potential in handling graph-structured data, their high computational requirements and complexity remain challenges. Future research needs to continue to explore how to efficiently fuse LLMs and GNNs to achieve more powerful graph learning and reasoning capabilities and provide new impetus for the development of graph mining techniques.

Scene graph generation (SGG) aims to predict graph-structured descriptions of input images, in the form of objects and relationships between them. This task is becoming increasingly useful for progress at the interface of vision and language. Here, it is important - yet challenging - to perform well on novel (zero-shot) or rare (few-shot) compositions of objects and relationships. In this paper, we identify two key issues that limit such generalization. Firstly, we show that the standard loss used in this task is unintentionally a function of scene graph density. This leads to the neglect of individual edges in large sparse graphs during training, even though these contain diverse few-shot examples that are important for generalization. Secondly, the frequency of relationships can create a strong bias in this task, such that a blind model predicting the most frequent relationship achieves good performance. Consequently, some state-of-the-art models exploit this bias to improve results. We show that such models can suffer the most in their ability to generalize to rare compositions, evaluating two different models on the Visual Genome dataset and its more recent, improved version, GQA. To address these issues, we introduce a density-normalized edge loss, which provides more than a two-fold improvement in certain generalization metrics. Compared to other works in this direction, our enhancements require only a few lines of code and no added computational cost. We also highlight the difficulty of accurately evaluating models using existing metrics, especially on zero/few shots, and introduce a novel weighted metric.

Auto-regressive language models factorize sequence probabilities and are trained by minimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL) objective. While empirically powerful, a deep theoretical understanding of why this simple objective yields such versatile representations remains elusive. This work introduces a unifying analytical framework using Markov Categories (MCs) to deconstruct the AR generation process and the NLL objective. We model the single-step generation map as a composition of Markov kernels in the category Stoch. This compositional view, when enriched with statistical divergences, allows us to dissect information flow and learned geometry. Our framework makes three main contributions. First, we provide a formal, information-theoretic rationale for the success of modern speculative decoding methods like EAGLE, quantifying the information surplus in hidden states that these methods exploit. Second, we formalize how NLL minimization forces the model to learn not just the next token, but the data's intrinsic conditional stochasticity, a process we analyze using categorical entropy. Third, and most centrally, we prove that NLL training acts as an implicit form of spectral contrastive learning. By analyzing the information geometry of the model's prediction head, we show that NLL implicitly forces the learned representation space to align with the eigenspectrum of a predictive similarity operator, thereby learning a geometrically structured space without explicit contrastive pairs. This compositional and information-geometric perspective reveals the deep structural principles underlying the effectiveness of modern LMs. Project Page: https://github.com/asiresearch/lm-theory

Deep graph generative modeling has proven capable of learning the distribution of complex, multi-scale structures characterizing real-world graphs. However, one of the main limitations of existing methods is their large output space, which limits generation scalability and hinders accurate modeling of the underlying distribution. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel approach that significantly reduces the output space of existing graph generative models. Specifically, starting from the observation that many real-world graphs have low graph bandwidth, we restrict graph bandwidth during training and generation. Our strategy improves both generation scalability and quality without increasing architectural complexity or reducing expressiveness. Our approach is compatible with existing graph generative methods, and we describe its application to both autoregressive and one-shot models. We extensively validate our strategy on synthetic and real datasets, including molecular graphs. Our experiments show that, in addition to improving generation efficiency, our approach consistently improves generation quality and reconstruction accuracy. The implementation is made available.

Enabling effective and efficient machine learning (ML) over large-scale graph data (e.g., graphs with billions of edges) can have a great impact on both industrial and scientific applications. However, existing efforts to advance large-scale graph ML have been largely limited by the lack of a suitable public benchmark. Here we present OGB Large-Scale Challenge (OGB-LSC), a collection of three real-world datasets for facilitating the advancements in large-scale graph ML. The OGB-LSC datasets are orders of magnitude larger than existing ones, covering three core graph learning tasks -- link prediction, graph regression, and node classification. Furthermore, we provide dedicated baseline experiments, scaling up expressive graph ML models to the massive datasets. We show that expressive models significantly outperform simple scalable baselines, indicating an opportunity for dedicated efforts to further improve graph ML at scale. Moreover, OGB-LSC datasets were deployed at ACM KDD Cup 2021 and attracted more than 500 team registrations globally, during which significant performance improvements were made by a variety of innovative techniques. We summarize the common techniques used by the winning solutions and highlight the current best practices in large-scale graph ML. Finally, we describe how we have updated the datasets after the KDD Cup to further facilitate research advances. The OGB-LSC datasets, baseline code, and all the information about the KDD Cup are available at https://ogb.stanford.edu/docs/lsc/ .

This review paper is intended for the 2nd edition of the Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo. We provide an introduction to approximate inference techniques as Bayesian computation methods applied to deep learning models. We organize the chapter by presenting popular computational methods for Bayesian neural networks and deep generative models, explaining their unique challenges in posterior inference as well as the solutions.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are effective models for representation learning on relational data. However, standard GNNs are limited in their expressive power, as they cannot distinguish graphs beyond the capability of the Weisfeiler-Leman graph isomorphism heuristic. In order to break this expressiveness barrier, GNNs have been enhanced with random node initialization (RNI), where the idea is to train and run the models with randomized initial node features. In this work, we analyze the expressive power of GNNs with RNI, and prove that these models are universal, a first such result for GNNs not relying on computationally demanding higher-order properties. This universality result holds even with partially randomized initial node features, and preserves the invariance properties of GNNs in expectation. We then empirically analyze the effect of RNI on GNNs, based on carefully constructed datasets. Our empirical findings support the superior performance of GNNs with RNI over standard GNNs.

This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a hallucination as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.

Multi-view graph clustering (MGC) methods are increasingly being studied due to the explosion of multi-view data with graph structural information. The critical point of MGC is to better utilize view-specific and view-common information in features and graphs of multiple views. However, existing works have an inherent limitation that they are unable to concurrently utilize the consensus graph information across multiple graphs and the view-specific feature information. To address this issue, we propose Variational Graph Generator for Multi-View Graph Clustering (VGMGC). Specifically, a novel variational graph generator is proposed to extract common information among multiple graphs. This generator infers a reliable variational consensus graph based on a priori assumption over multiple graphs. Then a simple yet effective graph encoder in conjunction with the multi-view clustering objective is presented to learn the desired graph embeddings for clustering, which embeds the inferred view-common graph and view-specific graphs together with features. Finally, theoretical results illustrate the rationality of the VGMGC by analyzing the uncertainty of the inferred consensus graph with the information bottleneck principle.Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our VGMGC over SOTAs. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/cjpcool/VGMGC.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Recent prevailing works on graph machine learning typically follow a similar methodology that involves designing advanced variants of graph neural networks (GNNs) to maintain the superior performance of GNNs on different graphs. In this paper, we aim to streamline the GNN design process and leverage the advantages of Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve the performance of GNNs on downstream tasks. We formulate a new paradigm, coined "LLMs-as-Consultants," which integrates LLMs with GNNs in an interactive manner. A framework named LOGIN (LLM Consulted GNN training) is instantiated, empowering the interactive utilization of LLMs within the GNN training process. First, we attentively craft concise prompts for spotted nodes, carrying comprehensive semantic and topological information, and serving as input to LLMs. Second, we refine GNNs by devising a complementary coping mechanism that utilizes the responses from LLMs, depending on their correctness. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of LOGIN on node classification tasks across both homophilic and heterophilic graphs. The results illustrate that even basic GNN architectures, when employed within the proposed LLMs-as-Consultants paradigm, can achieve comparable performance to advanced GNNs with intricate designs. Our codes are available at https://github.com/QiaoYRan/LOGIN.

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved impressive progress in vision-language understanding, they still struggle with complex multi-step reasoning, often producing logically inconsistent or partially correct solutions. A key limitation lies in the lack of fine-grained supervision over intermediate reasoning steps. To address this, we propose MM-PRM, a process reward model trained within a fully automated, scalable framework. We first build MM-Policy, a strong multimodal model trained on diverse mathematical reasoning data. Then, we construct MM-K12, a curated dataset of 10,000 multimodal math problems with verifiable answers, which serves as seed data. Leveraging a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-based pipeline, we generate over 700k step-level annotations without human labeling. The resulting PRM is used to score candidate reasoning paths in the Best-of-N inference setup and achieves significant improvements across both in-domain (MM-K12 test set) and out-of-domain (OlympiadBench, MathVista, etc.) benchmarks. Further analysis confirms the effectiveness of soft labels, smaller learning rates, and path diversity in optimizing PRM performance. MM-PRM demonstrates that process supervision is a powerful tool for enhancing the logical robustness of multimodal reasoning systems. We release all our codes and data at https://github.com/ModalMinds/MM-PRM.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are currently becoming the leading paradigm of generative modeling for many important data modalities. Being the most prevalent in the computer vision community, diffusion models have also recently gained some attention in other domains, including speech, NLP, and graph-like data. In this work, we investigate if the framework of diffusion models can be advantageous for general tabular problems, where datapoints are typically represented by vectors of heterogeneous features. The inherent heterogeneity of tabular data makes it quite challenging for accurate modeling, since the individual features can be of completely different nature, i.e., some of them can be continuous and some of them can be discrete. To address such data types, we introduce TabDDPM -- a diffusion model that can be universally applied to any tabular dataset and handles any type of feature. We extensively evaluate TabDDPM on a wide set of benchmarks and demonstrate its superiority over existing GAN/VAE alternatives, which is consistent with the advantage of diffusion models in other fields. Additionally, we show that TabDDPM is eligible for privacy-oriented setups, where the original datapoints cannot be publicly shared.

Large language models (LLMs) inevitably make mistakes when performing step-by-step mathematical reasoning. Process Reward Models (PRMs) have emerged as a promising solution by evaluating each reasoning step. However, existing PRMs typically output evaluation scores directly, limiting both learning efficiency and evaluation accuracy, which is further exacerbated by the scarcity of annotated data. To address these issues, we propose Reasoning-Driven Process Reward Modeling (R-PRM). First, we leverage stronger LLMs to generate seed data from limited annotations, effectively bootstrapping our model's reasoning capabilities and enabling comprehensive step-by-step evaluation. Second, we further enhance performance through preference optimization, without requiring additional annotated data. Third, we introduce inference-time scaling to fully harness the model's reasoning potential. Extensive experiments demonstrate R-PRM's effectiveness: on ProcessBench and PRMBench, it surpasses strong baselines by 11.9 and 8.5 points in F1 scores, respectively. When applied to guide mathematical reasoning, R-PRM achieves consistent accuracy improvements of over 8.5 points across six challenging datasets. Further analysis reveals that R-PRM exhibits more comprehensive evaluation and stronger generalization capabilities, thereby highlighting its significant potential.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Latent Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used in neuroscience to uncover hidden state evolutions from sequential observations, mainly in neural activity recordings. While latent GP models provide a principled and powerful solution in theory, the intractable posterior in non-conjugate settings necessitates approximate inference schemes, which may lack scalability. In this work, we propose cvHM, a general inference framework for latent GP models leveraging Hida-Mat\'ern kernels and conjugate computation variational inference (CVI). With cvHM, we are able to perform variational inference of latent neural trajectories with linear time complexity for arbitrary likelihoods. The reparameterization of stationary kernels using Hida-Mat\'ern GPs helps us connect the latent variable models that encode prior assumptions through dynamical systems to those that encode trajectory assumptions through GPs. In contrast to previous work, we use bidirectional information filtering, leading to a more concise implementation. Furthermore, we employ the Whittle approximate likelihood to achieve highly efficient hyperparameter learning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly relied upon for solving complex reasoning tasks in domains such as mathematics, logic, and multi-step question answering. A growing line of work seeks to improve reasoning quality by scaling inference time compute particularly through Process Reward Models (PRMs), used to reward the reasoning at intermediate steps. While effective, these methods introduce substantial computational overhead, especially when generating large numbers of solutions in parallel. In this paper, we investigate whether PRMs can be used mid-generation to provide early signals that enable the rejection of suboptimal candidates before full generation of step is complete. We introduce the hypothesis that PRMs are also Partial Reward Models, meaning that the scores they assign to partially completed reasoning step are predictive of final output quality. This allows for principled early rejection based on intermediate token-level signals. We support this hypothesis both theoretically, by proving that the risk of discarding optimal beams decreases exponentially with generation length and empirically, by demonstrating a strong correlation between partial and final rewards across multiple reward models. On math reasoning benchmarks, our method achieves up to 1.4times-9times reduction in inference FLOPs without degrading final performance. These results suggest that early rejection is a powerful mechanism for improving the compute-efficiency of reasoning in LLMs.

Graph neural architecture search has sparked much attention as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown powerful reasoning capability in many relational tasks. However, the currently used graph search space overemphasizes learning node features and neglects mining hierarchical relational information. Moreover, due to diverse mechanisms in the message passing, the graph search space is much larger than that of CNNs. This hinders the straightforward application of classical search strategies for exploring complicated graph search space. We propose Automatic Relation-aware Graph Network Proliferation (ARGNP) for efficiently searching GNNs with a relation-guided message passing mechanism. Specifically, we first devise a novel dual relation-aware graph search space that comprises both node and relation learning operations. These operations can extract hierarchical node/relational information and provide anisotropic guidance for message passing on a graph. Second, analogous to cell proliferation, we design a network proliferation search paradigm to progressively determine the GNN architectures by iteratively performing network division and differentiation. The experiments on six datasets for four graph learning tasks demonstrate that GNNs produced by our method are superior to the current state-of-the-art hand-crafted and search-based GNNs. Codes are available at https://github.com/phython96/ARGNP.