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Jun 23

Twitter conversations predict the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases

As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83--51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.

TwiBot-22: Towards Graph-Based Twitter Bot Detection

Twitter bot detection has become an increasingly important task to combat misinformation, facilitate social media moderation, and preserve the integrity of the online discourse. State-of-the-art bot detection methods generally leverage the graph structure of the Twitter network, and they exhibit promising performance when confronting novel Twitter bots that traditional methods fail to detect. However, very few of the existing Twitter bot detection datasets are graph-based, and even these few graph-based datasets suffer from limited dataset scale, incomplete graph structure, as well as low annotation quality. In fact, the lack of a large-scale graph-based Twitter bot detection benchmark that addresses these issues has seriously hindered the development and evaluation of novel graph-based bot detection approaches. In this paper, we propose TwiBot-22, a comprehensive graph-based Twitter bot detection benchmark that presents the largest dataset to date, provides diversified entities and relations on the Twitter network, and has considerably better annotation quality than existing datasets. In addition, we re-implement 35 representative Twitter bot detection baselines and evaluate them on 9 datasets, including TwiBot-22, to promote a fair comparison of model performance and a holistic understanding of research progress. To facilitate further research, we consolidate all implemented codes and datasets into the TwiBot-22 evaluation framework, where researchers could consistently evaluate new models and datasets. The TwiBot-22 Twitter bot detection benchmark and evaluation framework are publicly available at https://twibot22.github.io/

EcoVerse: An Annotated Twitter Dataset for Eco-Relevance Classification, Environmental Impact Analysis, and Stance Detection

Anthropogenic ecological crisis constitutes a significant challenge that all within the academy must urgently face, including the Natural Language Processing (NLP) community. While recent years have seen increasing work revolving around climate-centric discourse, crucial environmental and ecological topics outside of climate change remain largely unaddressed, despite their prominent importance. Mainstream NLP tasks, such as sentiment analysis, dominate the scene, but there remains an untouched space in the literature involving the analysis of environmental impacts of certain events and practices. To address this gap, this paper presents EcoVerse, an annotated English Twitter dataset of 3,023 tweets spanning a wide spectrum of environmental topics. We propose a three-level annotation scheme designed for Eco-Relevance Classification, Stance Detection, and introducing an original approach for Environmental Impact Analysis. We detail the data collection, filtering, and labeling process that led to the creation of the dataset. Remarkable Inter-Annotator Agreement indicates that the annotation scheme produces consistent annotations of high quality. Subsequent classification experiments using BERT-based models, including ClimateBERT, are presented. These yield encouraging results, while also indicating room for a model specifically tailored for environmental texts. The dataset is made freely available to stimulate further research.

Natural Hazards Twitter Dataset

With the development of the Internet, social media has become an important channel for posting disaster-related information. Analyzing attitudes hidden in these texts, known as sentiment analysis, is crucial for the government or relief agencies to improve disaster response efficiency, but it has not received sufficient attention. This paper aims to fill this gap by focusing on investigating attitudes towards disaster response and analyzing targeted relief supplies during disaster response. The contributions of this paper are fourfold. First, we propose several machine learning models for classifying public sentiment concerning disaster-related social media data. Second, we create a natural disaster dataset with sentiment labels, which contains nearly 50,00 Twitter data about different natural disasters in the United States (e.g., a tornado in 2011, a hurricane named Sandy in 2012, a series of floods in 2013, a hurricane named Matthew in 2016, a blizzard in 2016, a hurricane named Harvey in 2017, a hurricane named Michael in 2018, a series of wildfires in 2018, and a hurricane named Dorian in 2019). We are making our dataset available to the research community: https://github.com/Dong-UTIL/Natural-Hazards-Twitter-Dataset. It is our hope that our contribution will enable the study of sentiment analysis in disaster response. Third, we focus on extracting public attitudes and analyzing the essential needs (e.g., food, housing, transportation, and medical supplies) for the public during disaster response, instead of merely targeting on studying positive or negative attitudes of the public to natural disasters. Fourth, we conduct this research from two different dimensions for a comprehensive understanding of public opinion on disaster response, since disparate hazards caused by different types of natural disasters.

PreBit -- A multimodal model with Twitter FinBERT embeddings for extreme price movement prediction of Bitcoin

Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy.

BERTuit: Understanding Spanish language in Twitter through a native transformer

The appearance of complex attention-based language models such as BERT, Roberta or GPT-3 has allowed to address highly complex tasks in a plethora of scenarios. However, when applied to specific domains, these models encounter considerable difficulties. This is the case of Social Networks such as Twitter, an ever-changing stream of information written with informal and complex language, where each message requires careful evaluation to be understood even by humans given the important role that context plays. Addressing tasks in this domain through Natural Language Processing involves severe challenges. When powerful state-of-the-art multilingual language models are applied to this scenario, language specific nuances use to get lost in translation. To face these challenges we present BERTuit, the larger transformer proposed so far for Spanish language, pre-trained on a massive dataset of 230M Spanish tweets using RoBERTa optimization. Our motivation is to provide a powerful resource to better understand Spanish Twitter and to be used on applications focused on this social network, with special emphasis on solutions devoted to tackle the spreading of misinformation in this platform. BERTuit is evaluated on several tasks and compared against M-BERT, XLM-RoBERTa and XLM-T, very competitive multilingual transformers. The utility of our approach is shown with applications, in this case: a zero-shot methodology to visualize groups of hoaxes and profiling authors spreading disinformation. Misinformation spreads wildly on platforms such as Twitter in languages other than English, meaning performance of transformers may suffer when transferred outside English speaking communities.

Towards Characterizing COVID-19 Awareness on Twitter

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly altered our lifestyles as we resort to minimize the spread through preventive measures such as social distancing and quarantine. An increasingly worrying aspect is the gap between the exponential disease spread and the delay in adopting preventive measures. This gap is attributed to the lack of awareness about the disease and its preventive measures. Nowadays, social media platforms (ie., Twitter) are frequently used to create awareness about major events, including COVID-19. In this paper, we use Twitter to characterize public awareness regarding COVID-19 by analyzing the information flow in the most affected countries. Towards that, we collect more than 46K trends and 622 Million tweets from the top twenty most affected countries to examine 1) the temporal evolution of COVID-19 related trends, 2) the volume of tweets and recurring topics in those trends, and 3) the user sentiment towards preventive measures. Our results show that countries with a lower pandemic spread generated a higher volume of trends and tweets to expedite the information flow and contribute to public awareness. We also observed that in those countries, the COVID-19 related trends were generated before the sharp increase in the number of cases, indicating a preemptive attempt to notify users about the potential threat. Finally, we noticed that in countries with a lower spread, users had a positive sentiment towards COVID-19 preventive measures. Our measurements and analysis show that effective social media usage can influence public behavior, which can be leveraged to better combat future pandemics.

VaxxHesitancy: A Dataset for Studying Hesitancy Towards COVID-19 Vaccination on Twitter

Vaccine hesitancy has been a common concern, probably since vaccines were created and, with the popularisation of social media, people started to express their concerns about vaccines online alongside those posting pro- and anti-vaccine content. Predictably, since the first mentions of a COVID-19 vaccine, social media users posted about their fears and concerns or about their support and belief into the effectiveness of these rapidly developing vaccines. Identifying and understanding the reasons behind public hesitancy towards COVID-19 vaccines is important for policy markers that need to develop actions to better inform the population with the aim of increasing vaccine take-up. In the case of COVID-19, where the fast development of the vaccines was mirrored closely by growth in anti-vaxx disinformation, automatic means of detecting citizen attitudes towards vaccination became necessary. This is an important computational social sciences task that requires data analysis in order to gain in-depth understanding of the phenomena at hand. Annotated data is also necessary for training data-driven models for more nuanced analysis of attitudes towards vaccination. To this end, we created a new collection of over 3,101 tweets annotated with users' attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination (stance). Besides, we also develop a domain-specific language model (VaxxBERT) that achieves the best predictive performance (73.0 accuracy and 69.3 F1-score) as compared to a robust set of baselines. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first dataset and model that model vaccine hesitancy as a category distinct from pro- and anti-vaccine stance.

Cyber Security and Online Safety Education for Schools in the UK: Looking through the Lens of Twitter Data

In recent years, digital technologies have grown in many ways. As a result, many school-aged children have been exposed to the digital world a lot. Children are using more digital technologies, so schools need to teach kids more about cyber security and online safety. Because of this, there are now more school programmes and projects that teach students about cyber security and online safety and help them learn and improve their skills. Still, despite many programmes and projects, there is not much proof of how many schools have taken part and helped spread the word about them. This work shows how we can learn about the size and scope of cyber security and online safety education in schools in the UK, a country with a very active and advanced cyber security education profile, using nearly 200k public tweets from over 15k schools. By using simple techniques like descriptive statistics and visualisation as well as advanced natural language processing (NLP) techniques like sentiment analysis and topic modelling, we show some new findings and insights about how UK schools as a sector have been doing on Twitter with their cyber security and online safety education activities. Our work has led to a range of large-scale and real-world evidence that can help inform people and organisations interested in cyber security and teaching online safety in schools.

HateDay: Insights from a Global Hate Speech Dataset Representative of a Day on Twitter

To tackle the global challenge of online hate speech, a large body of research has developed detection models to flag hate speech in the sea of online content. Yet, due to systematic biases in evaluation datasets, detection performance in real-world settings remains unclear, let alone across geographies. To address this issue, we introduce HateDay, the first global hate speech dataset representative of social media settings, randomly sampled from all tweets posted on September 21, 2022 for eight languages and four English-speaking countries. Using HateDay, we show how the prevalence and composition of hate speech varies across languages and countries. We also find that evaluation on academic hate speech datasets overestimates real-world detection performance, which we find is very low, especially for non-European languages. We identify several factors explaining poor performance, including models' inability to distinguish between hate and offensive speech, and the misalignment between academic target focus and real-world target prevalence. We finally argue that such low performance renders hate speech moderation with public detection models unfeasible, even in a human-in-the-loop setting which we find is prohibitively costly. Overall, we emphasize the need to evaluate future detection models from academia and platforms in real-world settings to address this global challenge.