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Sep 11

REOBench: Benchmarking Robustness of Earth Observation Foundation Models

Earth observation foundation models have shown strong generalization across multiple Earth observation tasks, but their robustness under real-world perturbations remains underexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce REOBench, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the robustness of Earth observation foundation models across six tasks and twelve types of image corruptions, including both appearance-based and geometric perturbations. To ensure realistic and fine-grained evaluation, our benchmark focuses on high-resolution optical remote sensing images, which are widely used in critical applications such as urban planning and disaster response. We conduct a systematic evaluation of a broad range of models trained using masked image modeling, contrastive learning, and vision-language pre-training paradigms. Our results reveal that (1) existing Earth observation foundation models experience significant performance degradation when exposed to input corruptions. (2) The severity of degradation varies across tasks, model architectures, backbone sizes, and types of corruption, with performance drop varying from less than 1% to over 20%. (3) Vision-language models show enhanced robustness, particularly in multimodal tasks. REOBench underscores the vulnerability of current Earth observation foundation models to real-world corruptions and provides actionable insights for developing more robust and reliable models.

Multi-Label Guided Soft Contrastive Learning for Efficient Earth Observation Pretraining

Self-supervised pretraining on large-scale satellite data has raised great interest in building Earth observation (EO) foundation models. However, many important resources beyond pure satellite imagery, such as land-cover-land-use products that provide free global semantic information, as well as vision foundation models that hold strong knowledge of the natural world, tend to be overlooked. In this work, we show these free additional resources not only help resolve common contrastive learning bottlenecks, but also significantly boost the efficiency and effectiveness of EO pretraining. Specifically, we first propose soft contrastive learning that optimizes cross-scene soft similarity based on land-cover-generated multi-label supervision, naturally solving the issue of multiple positive samples and too strict positive matching in complex scenes. Second, we explore cross-domain continual pretraining for both multispectral and SAR imagery, building efficient EO foundation models from strongest vision models such as DINOv2. Integrating simple weight-initialization and Siamese masking strategies into our soft contrastive learning framework, we demonstrate impressive continual pretraining performance even when the input channels and modalities are not aligned. Without prohibitive training, we produce multispectral and SAR foundation models that achieve significantly better results in 9 out of 10 downstream tasks than most existing SOTA models. For example, our ResNet50/ViT-S achieve 84.8/85.0 linear probing mAP scores on BigEarthNet-10\% which are better than most existing ViT-L models; under the same setting, our ViT-B sets a new record of 86.8 in multispectral, and 82.5 in SAR, the latter even better than many multispectral models. Dataset and models are available at https://github.com/zhu-xlab/softcon.

Effect Heterogeneity with Earth Observation in Randomized Controlled Trials: Exploring the Role of Data, Model, and Evaluation Metric Choice

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications

This technical report presents Prithvi-EO-2.0, a new geospatial foundation model that offers significant improvements over its predecessor, Prithvi-EO-1.0. Trained on 4.2M global time series samples from NASA's Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data archive at 30m resolution, the new 300M and 600M parameter models incorporate temporal and location embeddings for enhanced performance across various geospatial tasks. Through extensive benchmarking with GEO-Bench, the 600M version outperforms the previous Prithvi-EO model by 8\% across a range of tasks. It also outperforms six other geospatial foundation models when benchmarked on remote sensing tasks from different domains and resolutions (i.e. from 0.1m to 15m). The results demonstrate the versatility of the model in both classical earth observation and high-resolution applications. Early involvement of end-users and subject matter experts (SMEs) are among the key factors that contributed to the project's success. In particular, SME involvement allowed for constant feedback on model and dataset design, as well as successful customization for diverse SME-led applications in disaster response, land use and crop mapping, and ecosystem dynamics monitoring. Prithvi-EO-2.0 is available on Hugging Face and IBM terratorch, with additional resources on GitHub. The project exemplifies the Trusted Open Science approach embraced by all involved organizations.

SkySense: A Multi-Modal Remote Sensing Foundation Model Towards Universal Interpretation for Earth Observation Imagery

Prior studies on Remote Sensing Foundation Model (RSFM) reveal immense potential towards a generic model for Earth Observation. Nevertheless, these works primarily focus on a single modality without temporal and geo-context modeling, hampering their capabilities for diverse tasks. In this study, we present SkySense, a generic billion-scale model, pre-trained on a curated multi-modal Remote Sensing Imagery (RSI) dataset with 21.5 million temporal sequences. SkySense incorporates a factorized multi-modal spatiotemporal encoder taking temporal sequences of optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data as input. This encoder is pre-trained by our proposed Multi-Granularity Contrastive Learning to learn representations across different modal and spatial granularities. To further enhance the RSI representations by the geo-context clue, we introduce Geo-Context Prototype Learning to learn region-aware prototypes upon RSI's multi-modal spatiotemporal features. To our best knowledge, SkySense is the largest Multi-Modal RSFM to date, whose modules can be flexibly combined or used individually to accommodate various tasks. It demonstrates remarkable generalization capabilities on a thorough evaluation encompassing 16 datasets over 7 tasks, from single- to multi-modal, static to temporal, and classification to localization. SkySense surpasses 18 recent RSFMs in all test scenarios. Specifically, it outperforms the latest models such as GFM, SatLas and Scale-MAE by a large margin, i.e., 2.76%, 3.67% and 3.61% on average respectively. We will release the pre-trained weights to facilitate future research and Earth Observation applications.

Efficient Self-Supervised Learning for Earth Observation via Dynamic Dataset Curation

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has enabled the development of vision foundation models for Earth Observation (EO), demonstrating strong transferability across diverse remote sensing tasks. While prior work has focused on network architectures and training strategies, the role of dataset curation, especially in balancing and diversifying pre-training datasets, remains underexplored. In EO, this challenge is amplified by the redundancy and heavy-tailed distributions common in satellite imagery, which can lead to biased representations and inefficient training. In this work, we propose a dynamic dataset pruning strategy designed to improve SSL pre-training by maximizing dataset diversity and balance. Our method iteratively refines the training set without requiring a pre-existing feature extractor, making it well-suited for domains where curated datasets are limited or unavailable. We demonstrate our approach on the Sentinel-1 Wave Mode (WV) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) archive, a challenging dataset dominated by ocean observations. We train models from scratch on the entire Sentinel-1 WV archive spanning 10 years. Across three downstream tasks, our results show that dynamic pruning improves both computational efficiency and representation quality, leading to stronger transferability. We also release the weights of Nereus-SAR-1, the first model in the Nereus family, a series of foundation models for ocean observation and analysis using SAR imagery, at github.com/galeio-research/nereus-sar-models/.

RemoteSAM: Towards Segment Anything for Earth Observation

We aim to develop a robust yet flexible visual foundation model for Earth observation. It should possess strong capabilities in recognizing and localizing diverse visual targets while providing compatibility with various input-output interfaces required across different task scenarios. Current systems cannot meet these requirements, as they typically utilize task-specific architecture trained on narrow data domains with limited semantic coverage. Our study addresses these limitations from two aspects: data and modeling. We first introduce an automatic data engine that enjoys significantly better scalability compared to previous human annotation or rule-based approaches. It has enabled us to create the largest dataset of its kind to date, comprising 270K image-text-mask triplets covering an unprecedented range of diverse semantic categories and attribute specifications. Based on this data foundation, we further propose a task unification paradigm that centers around referring expression segmentation. It effectively handles a wide range of vision-centric perception tasks, including classification, detection, segmentation, grounding, etc, using a single model without any task-specific heads. Combining these innovations on data and modeling, we present RemoteSAM, a foundation model that establishes new SoTA on several earth observation perception benchmarks, outperforming other foundation models such as Falcon, GeoChat, and LHRS-Bot with significantly higher efficiency. Models and data are publicly available at https://github.com/1e12Leon/RemoteSAM.

METER-ML: A Multi-Sensor Earth Observation Benchmark for Automated Methane Source Mapping

Reducing methane emissions is essential for mitigating global warming. To attribute methane emissions to their sources, a comprehensive dataset of methane source infrastructure is necessary. Recent advancements with deep learning on remotely sensed imagery have the potential to identify the locations and characteristics of methane sources, but there is a substantial lack of publicly available data to enable machine learning researchers and practitioners to build automated mapping approaches. To help fill this gap, we construct a multi-sensor dataset called METER-ML containing 86,599 georeferenced NAIP, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2 images in the U.S. labeled for the presence or absence of methane source facilities including concentrated animal feeding operations, coal mines, landfills, natural gas processing plants, oil refineries and petroleum terminals, and wastewater treatment plants. We experiment with a variety of models that leverage different spatial resolutions, spatial footprints, image products, and spectral bands. We find that our best model achieves an area under the precision recall curve of 0.915 for identifying concentrated animal feeding operations and 0.821 for oil refineries and petroleum terminals on an expert-labeled test set, suggesting the potential for large-scale mapping. We make METER-ML freely available at https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/projects/meter-ml/ to support future work on automated methane source mapping.

The Change You Want To Detect: Semantic Change Detection In Earth Observation With Hybrid Data Generation

Bi-temporal change detection at scale based on Very High Resolution (VHR) images is crucial for Earth monitoring. This remains poorly addressed so far: methods either require large volumes of annotated data (semantic case), or are limited to restricted datasets (binary set-ups). Most approaches do not exhibit the versatility required for temporal and spatial adaptation: simplicity in architecture design and pretraining on realistic and comprehensive datasets. Synthetic datasets are the key solution but still fail to handle complex and diverse scenes. In this paper, we present HySCDG a generative pipeline for creating a large hybrid semantic change detection dataset that contains both real VHR images and inpainted ones, along with land cover semantic map at both dates and the change map. Being semantically and spatially guided, HySCDG generates realistic images, leading to a comprehensive and hybrid transfer-proof dataset FSC-180k. We evaluate FSC-180k on five change detection cases (binary and semantic), from zero-shot to mixed and sequential training, and also under low data regime training. Experiments demonstrate that pretraining on our hybrid dataset leads to a significant performance boost, outperforming SyntheWorld, a fully synthetic dataset, in every configuration. All codes, models, and data are available here: https://yb23.github.io/projects/cywd/

SSL4Eco: A Global Seasonal Dataset for Geospatial Foundation Models in Ecology

With the exacerbation of the biodiversity and climate crises, macroecological pursuits such as global biodiversity mapping become more urgent. Remote sensing offers a wealth of Earth observation data for ecological studies, but the scarcity of labeled datasets remains a major challenge. Recently, self-supervised learning has enabled learning representations from unlabeled data, triggering the development of pretrained geospatial models with generalizable features. However, these models are often trained on datasets biased toward areas of high human activity, leaving entire ecological regions underrepresented. Additionally, while some datasets attempt to address seasonality through multi-date imagery, they typically follow calendar seasons rather than local phenological cycles. To better capture vegetation seasonality at a global scale, we propose a simple phenology-informed sampling strategy and introduce corresponding SSL4Eco, a multi-date Sentinel-2 dataset, on which we train an existing model with a season-contrastive objective. We compare representations learned from SSL4Eco against other datasets on diverse ecological downstream tasks and demonstrate that our straightforward sampling method consistently improves representation quality, highlighting the importance of dataset construction. The model pretrained on SSL4Eco reaches state of the art performance on 7 out of 8 downstream tasks spanning (multi-label) classification and regression. We release our code, data, and model weights to support macroecological and computer vision research at https://github.com/PlekhanovaElena/ssl4eco.

Foundation Models for Generalist Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Significant progress in the development of highly adaptable and reusable Artificial Intelligence (AI) models is expected to have a significant impact on Earth science and remote sensing. Foundation models are pre-trained on large unlabeled datasets through self-supervision, and then fine-tuned for various downstream tasks with small labeled datasets. This paper introduces a first-of-a-kind framework for the efficient pre-training and fine-tuning of foundational models on extensive geospatial data. We have utilized this framework to create Prithvi, a transformer-based geospatial foundational model pre-trained on more than 1TB of multispectral satellite imagery from the Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel 2 (HLS) dataset. Our study demonstrates the efficacy of our framework in successfully fine-tuning Prithvi to a range of Earth observation tasks that have not been tackled by previous work on foundation models involving multi-temporal cloud gap imputation, flood mapping, wildfire scar segmentation, and multi-temporal crop segmentation. Our experiments show that the pre-trained model accelerates the fine-tuning process compared to leveraging randomly initialized weights. In addition, pre-trained Prithvi compares well against the state-of-the-art, e.g., outperforming a conditional GAN model in multi-temporal cloud imputation by up to 5pp (or 5.7%) in the structural similarity index. Finally, due to the limited availability of labeled data in the field of Earth observation, we gradually reduce the quantity of available labeled data for refining the model to evaluate data efficiency and demonstrate that data can be decreased significantly without affecting the model's accuracy. The pre-trained 100 million parameter model and corresponding fine-tuning workflows have been released publicly as open source contributions to the global Earth sciences community through Hugging Face.

Large Language Models for Captioning and Retrieving Remote Sensing Images

Image captioning and cross-modal retrieval are examples of tasks that involve the joint analysis of visual and linguistic information. In connection to remote sensing imagery, these tasks can help non-expert users in extracting relevant Earth observation information for a variety of applications. Still, despite some previous efforts, the development and application of vision and language models to the remote sensing domain have been hindered by the relatively small size of the available datasets and models used in previous studies. In this work, we propose RS-CapRet, a Vision and Language method for remote sensing tasks, in particular image captioning and text-image retrieval. We specifically propose to use a highly capable large decoder language model together with image encoders adapted to remote sensing imagery through contrastive language-image pre-training. To bridge together the image encoder and language decoder, we propose training simple linear layers with examples from combining different remote sensing image captioning datasets, keeping the other parameters frozen. RS-CapRet can then generate descriptions for remote sensing images and retrieve images from textual descriptions, achieving SOTA or competitive performance with existing methods. Qualitative results illustrate that RS-CapRet can effectively leverage the pre-trained large language model to describe remote sensing images, retrieve them based on different types of queries, and also show the ability to process interleaved sequences of images and text in a dialogue manner.

RSVLM-QA: A Benchmark Dataset for Remote Sensing Vision Language Model-based Question Answering

Visual Question Answering (VQA) in remote sensing (RS) is pivotal for interpreting Earth observation data. However, existing RS VQA datasets are constrained by limitations in annotation richness, question diversity, and the assessment of specific reasoning capabilities. This paper introduces RSVLM-QA dataset, a new large-scale, content-rich VQA dataset for the RS domain. RSVLM-QA is constructed by integrating data from several prominent RS segmentation and detection datasets: WHU, LoveDA, INRIA, and iSAID. We employ an innovative dual-track annotation generation pipeline. Firstly, we leverage Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically GPT-4.1, with meticulously designed prompts to automatically generate a suite of detailed annotations including image captions, spatial relations, and semantic tags, alongside complex caption-based VQA pairs. Secondly, to address the challenging task of object counting in RS imagery, we have developed a specialized automated process that extracts object counts directly from the original segmentation data; GPT-4.1 then formulates natural language answers from these counts, which are paired with preset question templates to create counting QA pairs. RSVLM-QA comprises 13,820 images and 162,373 VQA pairs, featuring extensive annotations and diverse question types. We provide a detailed statistical analysis of the dataset and a comparison with existing RS VQA benchmarks, highlighting the superior depth and breadth of RSVLM-QA's annotations. Furthermore, we conduct benchmark experiments on Six mainstream Vision Language Models (VLMs), demonstrating that RSVLM-QA effectively evaluates and challenges the understanding and reasoning abilities of current VLMs in the RS domain. We believe RSVLM-QA will serve as a pivotal resource for the RS VQA and VLM research communities, poised to catalyze advancements in the field.

Dynamic Modeling and Vibration Analysis of Large Deployable Mesh Reflectors

Large deployable mesh reflectors are essential for space applications, providing precise reflecting surfaces for high-gain antennas used in satellite communications, Earth observation, and deep-space missions. During on-orbit missions, active shape adjustment and attitude control are crucial for maintaining surface accuracy and proper orientation for these reflectors, ensuring optimal performance. Preventing resonance through thorough dynamic modeling and vibration analysis is vital to avoid structural damage and ensure stability and reliability. Existing dynamic modeling approaches, such as wave and finite element methods, often fail to accurately predict dynamic responses due to the limited capability of handling three-dimensional reflectors or the oversimplification of cable members of a reflector. This paper proposes the Cartesian spatial discretization method for dynamic modeling and vibration analysis of cable-network structures in large deployable mesh reflectors. This method defines cable member positions as a summation of internal and boundary-induced terms within a global Cartesian coordinate system. Numerical simulation on a two-dimensional cable-network structure and a center-feed mesh reflector demonstrates the superiority of the proposed method over traditional approaches, highlighting its accuracy and versatility, and establishing it as a robust tool for analyzing three-dimensional complex reflector configurations.

Debiasing Machine Learning Predictions for Causal Inference Without Additional Ground Truth Data: "One Map, Many Trials" in Satellite-Driven Poverty Analysis

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

CanadaFireSat: Toward high-resolution wildfire forecasting with multiple modalities

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around sim 0.1{\deg}. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.

A Comparative Study on Generative Models for High Resolution Solar Observation Imaging

Solar activity is one of the main drivers of variability in our solar system and the key source of space weather phenomena that affect Earth and near Earth space. The extensive record of high resolution extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) offers an unprecedented, very large dataset of solar images. In this work, we make use of this comprehensive dataset to investigate capabilities of current state-of-the-art generative models to accurately capture the data distribution behind the observed solar activity states. Starting from StyleGAN-based methods, we uncover severe deficits of this model family in handling fine-scale details of solar images when training on high resolution samples, contrary to training on natural face images. When switching to the diffusion based generative model family, we observe strong improvements of fine-scale detail generation. For the GAN family, we are able to achieve similar improvements in fine-scale generation when turning to ProjectedGANs, which uses multi-scale discriminators with a pre-trained frozen feature extractor. We conduct ablation studies to clarify mechanisms responsible for proper fine-scale handling. Using distributed training on supercomputers, we are able to train generative models for up to 1024x1024 resolution that produce high quality samples indistinguishable to human experts, as suggested by the evaluation we conduct. We make all code, models and workflows used in this study publicly available at https://github.com/SLAMPAI/generative-models-for-highres-solar-images.

M3LEO: A Multi-Modal, Multi-Label Earth Observation Dataset Integrating Interferometric SAR and Multispectral Data

Satellite-based remote sensing has revolutionised the way we address global challenges. Huge quantities of Earth Observation (EO) data are generated by satellite sensors daily, but processing these large datasets for use in ML pipelines is technically and computationally challenging. While some preprocessed Earth observation datasets exist, their content is often limited to optical or near-optical wavelength data, which is ineffective at night or in adverse weather conditions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), an active sensing technique based on microwave length radiation, offers a viable alternative. However, the application of machine learning to SAR has been limited due to a lack of ML-ready data and pipelines, particularly for the full diversity of SAR data, including polarimetry, coherence and interferometry. In this work, we introduce M3LEO, a multi-modal, multi-label Earth observation dataset that includes polarimetric, interferometric, and coherence SAR data derived from Sentinel-1, alongside multispectral Sentinel-2 imagery and auxiliary data describing terrain properties such as land use. M3LEO spans approximately 17M 4x4 km data chips from six diverse geographic regions. The dataset is complemented by a flexible PyTorch Lightning framework configured using Hydra to accommodate its use across diverse ML applications in Earth observation. We provide tools to process any dataset available on popular platforms such as Google Earth Engine for seamless integration with our framework. We show that the distribution shift in self-supervised embeddings is substantial across geographic regions, even when controlling for terrain properties. Data: huggingface.co/M3LEO, Code: github.com/spaceml-org/M3LEO.

Characterising the Atmosphere of 55 Cancri e: 1D Forward Model Grid for Current and Future JWST Observations

Recent JWST observations with NIRCam and MIRI of the ultra-short-period super-Earth 55 Cancri e indicate a possible volatile atmosphere surrounding the planet. Previous analysis of the NIRCam spectra suggested potential absorption features from CO2 or CO and significant sub-weekly variability. The MIRI low-resolution spectrum does not contain substantial features but was found to be consistent with effective heat redistribution models. In this work, we computed a grid of over 25000 self-consistent 1D forward models incorporating H-N-O-C-S-P-Si-Ti equilibrium chemistry and assessed plausible atmospheric compositions based on the current JWST data. Despite exhaustive analysis, the composition and properties of the atmosphere remain elusive. While our results statistically favour a global, hydrogen-free, nitrogen-dominated atmosphere enriched in PO and CO2, various alternative compositions, including H2O-,CO-, PH3-, or Si-bearing remain viable explanations. Unconstrained heat redistribution efficiency and absolute NIRCam flux are among the largest sources of uncertainty in our analysis. We also find that the heat redistribution factor and surface pressure are highly degenerate with atmospheric composition, and that these parameters cannot be independently constrained using current JWST observations. Furthermore, we show that the observed variability may arise from dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and an underlying magma ocean, driving rapid shifts in atmospheric chemistry and thermal emission. Our results highlight the importance of using self-consistent forward models when analysing novel JWST spectra with limited signal-to-noise ratios -- such as those of 55 Cancri e -- as it allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of potential atmospheric scenarios while also being less sensitive to subtle spectral differences than retrievals...

OmniEarth-Bench: Towards Holistic Evaluation of Earth's Six Spheres and Cross-Spheres Interactions with Multimodal Observational Earth Data

Existing benchmarks for Earth science multimodal learning exhibit critical limitations in systematic coverage of geosystem components and cross-sphere interactions, often constrained to isolated subsystems (only in Human-activities sphere or atmosphere) with limited evaluation dimensions (less than 16 tasks). To address these gaps, we introduce OmniEarth-Bench, the first comprehensive multimodal benchmark spanning all six Earth science spheres (atmosphere, lithosphere, Oceansphere, cryosphere, biosphere and Human-activities sphere) and cross-spheres with one hundred expert-curated evaluation dimensions. Leveraging observational data from satellite sensors and in-situ measurements, OmniEarth-Bench integrates 29,779 annotations across four tiers: perception, general reasoning, scientific knowledge reasoning and chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. This involves the efforts of 2-5 experts per sphere to establish authoritative evaluation dimensions and curate relevant observational datasets, 40 crowd-sourcing annotators to assist experts for annotations, and finally, OmniEarth-Bench is validated via hybrid expert-crowd workflows to reduce label ambiguity. Experiments on 9 state-of-the-art MLLMs reveal that even the most advanced models struggle with our benchmarks, where none of them reach 35\% accuracy. Especially, in some cross-spheres tasks, the performance of leading models like GPT-4o drops to 0.0\%. OmniEarth-Bench sets a new standard for geosystem-aware AI, advancing both scientific discovery and practical applications in environmental monitoring and disaster prediction. The dataset, source code, and trained models were released.

Interpretable structural model error discovery from sparse assimilation increments using spectral bias-reduced neural networks: A quasi-geostrophic turbulence test case

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Promise and Peril: Stellar Contamination and Strict Limits on the Atmosphere Composition of TRAPPIST-1c from JWST NIRISS Transmission Spectra

Attempts to probe the atmospheres of rocky planets around M dwarfs present both promise and peril. While their favorable planet-to-star radius ratios enable searches for even thin secondary atmospheres, their high activity levels and high-energy outputs threaten atmosphere survival. Here, we present the 0.6--2.85\,mum transmission spectrum of the 1.1\,rm R_oplus, sim340\,K rocky planet TRAPPIST-1\,c obtained over two JWST NIRISS/SOSS transit observations. Each of the two spectra displays 100--500\,ppm signatures of stellar contamination. Despite being separated by 367\,days, the retrieved spot and faculae properties are consistent between the two visits, resulting in nearly identical transmission spectra. Jointly retrieving for stellar contamination and a planetary atmosphere reveals that our spectrum can rule out hydrogen-dominated, lesssim300times solar metallicity atmospheres with effective surface pressures down to 10\,mbar at the 3-sigma level. For high-mean molecular weight atmospheres, where O_2 or N_2 is the background gas, our spectrum disfavors partial pressures of more than sim10\,mbar for H_2O, CO, NH_3 and CH_4 at the 2-sigma level. Similarly, under the assumption of a 100\% H_2O, NH_3, CO, or CH_4 atmosphere, our spectrum disfavors thick, >1\,bar atmospheres at the 2-sigma level. These non-detections of spectral features are in line with predictions that even heavier, CO_2-rich, atmospheres would be efficiently lost on TRAPPIST-1\,c given the cumulative high-energy irradiation experienced by the planet. Our results further stress the importance of robustly accounting for stellar contamination when analyzing JWST observations of exo-Earths around M dwarfs, as well as the need for high-fidelity stellar models to search for the potential signals of thin secondary atmospheres.