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Jul 7

GlucoLens: Explainable Postprandial Blood Glucose Prediction from Diet and Physical Activity

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

Spherical convolutions on molecular graphs for protein model quality assessment

Processing information on 3D objects requires methods stable to rigid-body transformations, in particular rotations, of the input data. In image processing tasks, convolutional neural networks achieve this property using rotation-equivariant operations. However, contrary to images, graphs generally have irregular topology. This makes it challenging to define a rotation-equivariant convolution operation on these structures. In this work, we propose Spherical Graph Convolutional Network (S-GCN) that processes 3D models of proteins represented as molecular graphs. In a protein molecule, individual amino acids have common topological elements. This allows us to unambiguously associate each amino acid with a local coordinate system and construct rotation-equivariant spherical filters that operate on angular information between graph nodes. Within the framework of the protein model quality assessment problem, we demonstrate that the proposed spherical convolution method significantly improves the quality of model assessment compared to the standard message-passing approach. It is also comparable to state-of-the-art methods, as we demonstrate on Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) benchmarks. The proposed technique operates only on geometric features of protein 3D models. This makes it universal and applicable to any other geometric-learning task where the graph structure allows constructing local coordinate systems.