Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to forecasting tasks, with some works claiming these systems match or exceed human performance. In this paper, we argue that, as a community, we should be careful about such conclusions as evaluating LLM forecasters presents unique challenges. We identify two broad categories of issues: (1) difficulty in trusting evaluation results due to many forms of temporal leakage, and (2) difficulty in extrapolating from evaluation performance to real-world forecasting. Through systematic analysis and concrete examples from prior work, we demonstrate how evaluation flaws can raise concerns about current and future performance claims. We argue that more rigorous evaluation methodologies are needed to confidently assess the forecasting abilities of LLMs.

Existing datasets for automated fact-checking have substantial limitations, such as relying on artificial claims, lacking annotations for evidence and intermediate reasoning, or including evidence published after the claim. In this paper we introduce AVeriTeC, a new dataset of 4,568 real-world claims covering fact-checks by 50 different organizations. Each claim is annotated with question-answer pairs supported by evidence available online, as well as textual justifications explaining how the evidence combines to produce a verdict. Through a multi-round annotation process, we avoid common pitfalls including context dependence, evidence insufficiency, and temporal leakage, and reach a substantial inter-annotator agreement of kappa=0.619 on verdicts. We develop a baseline as well as an evaluation scheme for verifying claims through several question-answering steps against the open web.

Video anomaly detection (VAD) without human monitoring is a complex computer vision task that can have a positive impact on society if implemented successfully. While recent advances have made significant progress in solving this task, most existing approaches overlook a critical real-world concern: privacy. With the increasing popularity of artificial intelligence technologies, it becomes crucial to implement proper AI ethics into their development. Privacy leakage in VAD allows models to pick up and amplify unnecessary biases related to people's personal information, which may lead to undesirable decision making. In this paper, we propose TeD-SPAD, a privacy-aware video anomaly detection framework that destroys visual private information in a self-supervised manner. In particular, we propose the use of a temporally-distinct triplet loss to promote temporally discriminative features, which complements current weakly-supervised VAD methods. Using TeD-SPAD, we achieve a positive trade-off between privacy protection and utility anomaly detection performance on three popular weakly supervised VAD datasets: UCF-Crime, XD-Violence, and ShanghaiTech. Our proposed anonymization model reduces private attribute prediction by 32.25% while only reducing frame-level ROC AUC on the UCF-Crime anomaly detection dataset by 3.69%. Project Page: https://joefioresi718.github.io/TeD-SPAD_webpage/

Diffusion models have obtained substantial progress in image-to-video (I2V) generation. However, such models are not fully understood. In this paper, we report a significant but previously overlooked issue in I2V diffusion models (I2V-DMs), namely, conditional image leakage. I2V-DMs tend to over-rely on the conditional image at large time steps, neglecting the crucial task of predicting the clean video from noisy inputs, which results in videos lacking dynamic and vivid motion. We further address this challenge from both inference and training aspects by presenting plug-and-play strategies accordingly. First, we introduce a training-free inference strategy that starts the generation process from an earlier time step to avoid the unreliable late-time steps of I2V-DMs, as well as an initial noise distribution with optimal analytic expressions (Analytic-Init) by minimizing the KL divergence between it and the actual marginal distribution to effectively bridge the training-inference gap. Second, to mitigate conditional image leakage during training, we design a time-dependent noise distribution for the conditional image, which favors high noise levels at large time steps to sufficiently interfere with the conditional image. We validate these strategies on various I2V-DMs using our collected open-domain image benchmark and the UCF101 dataset. Extensive results demonstrate that our methods outperform baselines by producing videos with more dynamic and natural motion without compromising image alignment and temporal consistency. The project page: https://cond-image-leak.github.io/.

Lip synchronization, known as the task of aligning lip movements in an existing video with new input audio, is typically framed as a simpler variant of audio-driven facial animation. However, as well as suffering from the usual issues in talking head generation (e.g., temporal consistency), lip synchronization presents significant new challenges such as expression leakage from the input video and facial occlusions, which can severely impact real-world applications like automated dubbing, but are often neglected in existing works. To address these shortcomings, we present KeySync, a two-stage framework that succeeds in solving the issue of temporal consistency, while also incorporating solutions for leakage and occlusions using a carefully designed masking strategy. We show that KeySync achieves state-of-the-art results in lip reconstruction and cross-synchronization, improving visual quality and reducing expression leakage according to LipLeak, our novel leakage metric. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our new masking approach in handling occlusions and validate our architectural choices through several ablation studies. Code and model weights can be found at https://antonibigata.github.io/KeySync.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to the development of benchmarks that consider temporal dynamics, however, there remains a gap in understanding how well these models can generalize across temporal contexts due to the inherent dynamic nature of language and information. This paper introduces the concept of temporal generalization in LLMs, including bias in past and future generalizations. Then we introduce FreshBench, a new evaluation framework that employs fresh text and event prediction for assessing LLMs' temporal adaptability, ensuring the evaluation process free from data leakage and subjective bias. The experiment shows significant temporal biases and a decline in performance over time. Our findings reveal that powerful models, while initially superior, tend to decline more rapidly in future generalization. Additionally, powerful open-source models demonstrate better long-term adaptability compared to their closed-source counterparts. Our code is available at https://github.com/FreedomIntelligence/FreshBench.

Masked autoencoding has shown excellent performance on self-supervised video representation learning. Temporal redundancy has led to a high masking ratio and customized masking strategy in VideoMAE. In this paper, we aim to further improve the performance of video masked autoencoding by introducing a motion guided masking strategy. Our key insight is that motion is a general and unique prior in video, which should be taken into account during masked pre-training. Our motion guided masking explicitly incorporates motion information to build temporal consistent masking volume. Based on this masking volume, we can track the unmasked tokens in time and sample a set of temporal consistent cubes from videos. These temporal aligned unmasked tokens will further relieve the information leakage issue in time and encourage the MGMAE to learn more useful structure information. We implement our MGMAE with an online efficient optical flow estimator and backward masking map warping strategy. We perform experiments on the datasets of Something-Something V2 and Kinetics-400, demonstrating the superior performance of our MGMAE to the original VideoMAE. In addition, we provide the visualization analysis to illustrate that our MGMAE can sample temporal consistent cubes in a motion-adaptive manner for more effective video pre-training.