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Oct 7

TimeSeriesScientist: A General-Purpose AI Agent for Time Series Analysis

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Pandora's White-Box: Increased Training Data Leakage in Open LLMs

In this paper we undertake a systematic study of privacy attacks against open source Large Language Models (LLMs), where an adversary has access to either the model weights, gradients, or losses, and tries to exploit them to learn something about the underlying training data. Our headline results are the first membership inference attacks (MIAs) against pre-trained LLMs that are able to simultaneously achieve high TPRs and low FPRs, and a pipeline showing that over 50% (!) of the fine-tuning dataset can be extracted from a fine-tuned LLM in natural settings. We consider varying degrees of access to the underlying model, customization of the language model, and resources available to the attacker. In the pre-trained setting, we propose three new white-box MIAs: an attack based on the gradient norm, a supervised neural network classifier, and a single step loss ratio attack. All outperform existing black-box baselines, and our supervised attack closes the gap between MIA attack success against LLMs and other types of models. In fine-tuning, we find that given access to the loss of the fine-tuned and base models, a fine-tuned loss ratio attack FLoRA is able to achieve near perfect MIA peformance. We then leverage these MIAs to extract fine-tuning data from fine-tuned language models. We find that the pipeline of generating from fine-tuned models prompted with a small snippet of the prefix of each training example, followed by using FLoRa to select the most likely training sample, succeeds the majority of the fine-tuning dataset after only 3 epochs of fine-tuning. Taken together, these findings show that highly effective MIAs are available in almost all LLM training settings, and highlight that great care must be taken before LLMs are fine-tuned on highly sensitive data and then deployed.

Microbial Genetic Algorithm-based Black-box Attack against Interpretable Deep Learning Systems

Deep learning models are susceptible to adversarial samples in white and black-box environments. Although previous studies have shown high attack success rates, coupling DNN models with interpretation models could offer a sense of security when a human expert is involved, who can identify whether a given sample is benign or malicious. However, in white-box environments, interpretable deep learning systems (IDLSes) have been shown to be vulnerable to malicious manipulations. In black-box settings, as access to the components of IDLSes is limited, it becomes more challenging for the adversary to fool the system. In this work, we propose a Query-efficient Score-based black-box attack against IDLSes, QuScore, which requires no knowledge of the target model and its coupled interpretation model. QuScore is based on transfer-based and score-based methods by employing an effective microbial genetic algorithm. Our method is designed to reduce the number of queries necessary to carry out successful attacks, resulting in a more efficient process. By continuously refining the adversarial samples created based on feedback scores from the IDLS, our approach effectively navigates the search space to identify perturbations that can fool the system. We evaluate the attack's effectiveness on four CNN models (Inception, ResNet, VGG, DenseNet) and two interpretation models (CAM, Grad), using both ImageNet and CIFAR datasets. Our results show that the proposed approach is query-efficient with a high attack success rate that can reach between 95% and 100% and transferability with an average success rate of 69% in the ImageNet and CIFAR datasets. Our attack method generates adversarial examples with attribution maps that resemble benign samples. We have also demonstrated that our attack is resilient against various preprocessing defense techniques and can easily be transferred to different DNN models.

Collab-RAG: Boosting Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Complex Question Answering via White-Box and Black-Box LLM Collaboration

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems often struggle to handle multi-hop question-answering tasks accurately due to irrelevant context retrieval and limited complex reasoning capabilities. We introduce Collab-RAG, a collaborative training framework that leverages mutual enhancement between a white-box small language model (SLM) and a blackbox large language model (LLM) for RAG. Specifically, the SLM decomposes complex queries into simpler sub-questions, thus enhancing the accuracy of the retrieval and facilitating more effective reasoning by the black-box LLM. Concurrently, the black-box LLM provides feedback signals to improve the SLM's decomposition capability. We observe that Collab-RAG relies solely on supervision from an affordable black-box LLM without additional distillation from frontier LLMs, yet demonstrates strong generalization across multiple black-box LLMs. Experimental evaluations across five multi-hop QA datasets demonstrate that Collab-RAG substantially outperforms existing black-box-only and SLM fine-tuning baselines by 1.8%-14.2% on average. In particular, our fine-tuned 3B SLM surpasses a frozen 32B LLM in question decomposition, highlighting the efficiency of Collab-RAG in improving reasoning and retrieval for complex questions. The code of Collab-RAG is available on https://github.com/ritaranx/Collab-RAG/.

Joint-GCG: Unified Gradient-Based Poisoning Attacks on Retrieval-Augmented Generation Systems

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems enhance Large Language Models (LLMs) by retrieving relevant documents from external corpora before generating responses. This approach significantly expands LLM capabilities by leveraging vast, up-to-date external knowledge. However, this reliance on external knowledge makes RAG systems vulnerable to corpus poisoning attacks that manipulate generated outputs via poisoned document injection. Existing poisoning attack strategies typically treat the retrieval and generation stages as disjointed, limiting their effectiveness. We propose Joint-GCG, the first framework to unify gradient-based attacks across both retriever and generator models through three innovations: (1) Cross-Vocabulary Projection for aligning embedding spaces, (2) Gradient Tokenization Alignment for synchronizing token-level gradient signals, and (3) Adaptive Weighted Fusion for dynamically balancing attacking objectives. Evaluations demonstrate that Joint-GCG achieves at most 25% and an average of 5% higher attack success rate than previous methods across multiple retrievers and generators. While optimized under a white-box assumption, the generated poisons show unprecedented transferability to unseen models. Joint-GCG's innovative unification of gradient-based attacks across retrieval and generation stages fundamentally reshapes our understanding of vulnerabilities within RAG systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/NicerWang/Joint-GCG.

Can Generalist Foundation Models Outcompete Special-Purpose Tuning? Case Study in Medicine

Generalist foundation models such as GPT-4 have displayed surprising capabilities in a wide variety of domains and tasks. Yet, there is a prevalent assumption that they cannot match specialist capabilities of fine-tuned models. For example, most explorations to date on medical competency benchmarks have leveraged domain-specific training, as exemplified by efforts on BioGPT and Med-PaLM. We build on a prior study of GPT-4's capabilities on medical challenge benchmarks in the absence of special training. Rather than using simple prompting to highlight the model's out-of-the-box capabilities, we perform a systematic exploration of prompt engineering. We find that prompting innovation can unlock deeper specialist capabilities and show that GPT-4 easily tops prior leading results for medical benchmarks. The prompting methods we explore are general purpose, and make no specific use of domain expertise, removing the need for expert-curated content. Our experimental design carefully controls for overfitting during the prompt engineering process. We introduce Medprompt, based on a composition of several prompting strategies. With Medprompt, GPT-4 achieves state-of-the-art results on all nine of the benchmark datasets in the MultiMedQA suite. The method outperforms leading specialist models such as Med-PaLM 2 by a significant margin with an order of magnitude fewer calls to the model. Steering GPT-4 with Medprompt achieves a 27% reduction in error rate on the MedQA dataset over the best methods to date achieved with specialist models and surpasses a score of 90% for the first time. Beyond medical problems, we show the power of Medprompt to generalize to other domains and provide evidence for the broad applicability of the approach via studies of the strategy on exams in electrical engineering, machine learning, philosophy, accounting, law, nursing, and clinical psychology.

CaBaGe: Data-Free Model Extraction using ClAss BAlanced Generator Ensemble

Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) is often provided as a pay-per-query, black-box system to clients. Such a black-box approach not only hinders open replication, validation, and interpretation of model results, but also makes it harder for white-hat researchers to identify vulnerabilities in the MLaaS systems. Model extraction is a promising technique to address these challenges by reverse-engineering black-box models. Since training data is typically unavailable for MLaaS models, this paper focuses on the realistic version of it: data-free model extraction. We propose a data-free model extraction approach, CaBaGe, to achieve higher model extraction accuracy with a small number of queries. Our innovations include (1) a novel experience replay for focusing on difficult training samples; (2) an ensemble of generators for steadily producing diverse synthetic data; and (3) a selective filtering process for querying the victim model with harder, more balanced samples. In addition, we create a more realistic setting, for the first time, where the attacker has no knowledge of the number of classes in the victim training data, and create a solution to learn the number of classes on the fly. Our evaluation shows that CaBaGe outperforms existing techniques on seven datasets -- MNIST, FMNIST, SVHN, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet-subset, and Tiny ImageNet -- with an accuracy improvement of the extracted models by up to 43.13%. Furthermore, the number of queries required to extract a clone model matching the final accuracy of prior work is reduced by up to 75.7%.

Radii, masses, and transit-timing variations of the three-planet system orbiting the naked-eye star TOI-396

TOI-396 is an F6V star (Vapprox6.4) orbited by three transiting planets. The orbital periods of the two innermost planets are close to the 5:3 commensurability (P_b sim3.6 d and P_c sim6.0 d). To measure the masses of the three planets, refine their radii, and investigate whether planets b and c are in MMR, we carried out HARPS RV observations and retrieved photometric data from TESS. We extracted the RVs via a skew-normal fit onto the HARPS CCFs and performed an MCMC joint analysis of the Doppler measurements and transit photometry, while employing the breakpoint method to remove stellar activity from the RV time series. We also performed a thorough TTV dynamical analysis of the system. Our analysis confirms that the three planets have similar sizes: R_b=2.004_{-0.047}^{+0.045}R_{oplus}; R_c=1.979_{-0.051}^{+0.054}R_{oplus}; R_d=2.001_{-0.064}^{+0.063}R_{oplus}. For the first time, we have determined the RV masses for TOI-396b and d: M_b=3.55_{-0.96}^{+0.94}M_{oplus} (rho_b=2.44_{-0.68}^{+0.69} g cm^{-3}) and M_d=7.1pm1.6M_{oplus} (rho_d=4.9_{-1.1}^{+1.2} g cm^{-3}). Our results suggest a quite unusual system architecture, with the outermost planet being the densest. The Doppler reflex motion induced by TOI-396c remains undetected in our RV time series, likely due to the proximity of P_c to the star's rotation period (P_{rot}=6.7pm1.3 d). We also discovered that TOI-396b and c display significant TTVs. While the TTV dynamical analysis returns a formally precise mass for TOI-396c (M_{c,dyn}=2.24^{+0.13}_{-0.67}M_{oplus}), the result might not be accurate owing to the poor sampling of the TTV phase. We also conclude that TOI-396b and c are close to but out of the 5:3 MMR. Our numerical simulation suggests TTV semi-amplitudes of up to 5 hours over a temporal baseline of sim5.2 years.

Masked Completion via Structured Diffusion with White-Box Transformers

Modern learning frameworks often train deep neural networks with massive amounts of unlabeled data to learn representations by solving simple pretext tasks, then use the representations as foundations for downstream tasks. These networks are empirically designed; as such, they are usually not interpretable, their representations are not structured, and their designs are potentially redundant. White-box deep networks, in which each layer explicitly identifies and transforms structures in the data, present a promising alternative. However, existing white-box architectures have only been shown to work at scale in supervised settings with labeled data, such as classification. In this work, we provide the first instantiation of the white-box design paradigm that can be applied to large-scale unsupervised representation learning. We do this by exploiting a fundamental connection between diffusion, compression, and (masked) completion, deriving a deep transformer-like masked autoencoder architecture, called CRATE-MAE, in which the role of each layer is mathematically fully interpretable: they transform the data distribution to and from a structured representation. Extensive empirical evaluations confirm our analytical insights. CRATE-MAE demonstrates highly promising performance on large-scale imagery datasets while using only ~30% of the parameters compared to the standard masked autoencoder with the same model configuration. The representations learned by CRATE-MAE have explicit structure and also contain semantic meaning. Code is available at https://github.com/Ma-Lab-Berkeley/CRATE .

PubDef: Defending Against Transfer Attacks From Public Models

Adversarial attacks have been a looming and unaddressed threat in the industry. However, through a decade-long history of the robustness evaluation literature, we have learned that mounting a strong or optimal attack is challenging. It requires both machine learning and domain expertise. In other words, the white-box threat model, religiously assumed by a large majority of the past literature, is unrealistic. In this paper, we propose a new practical threat model where the adversary relies on transfer attacks through publicly available surrogate models. We argue that this setting will become the most prevalent for security-sensitive applications in the future. We evaluate the transfer attacks in this setting and propose a specialized defense method based on a game-theoretic perspective. The defenses are evaluated under 24 public models and 11 attack algorithms across three datasets (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet). Under this threat model, our defense, PubDef, outperforms the state-of-the-art white-box adversarial training by a large margin with almost no loss in the normal accuracy. For instance, on ImageNet, our defense achieves 62% accuracy under the strongest transfer attack vs only 36% of the best adversarially trained model. Its accuracy when not under attack is only 2% lower than that of an undefended model (78% vs 80%). We release our code at https://github.com/wagner-group/pubdef.

Using Mechanistic Interpretability to Craft Adversarial Attacks against Large Language Models

Traditional white-box methods for creating adversarial perturbations against LLMs typically rely only on gradient computation from the targeted model, ignoring the internal mechanisms responsible for attack success or failure. Conversely, interpretability studies that analyze these internal mechanisms lack practical applications beyond runtime interventions. We bridge this gap by introducing a novel white-box approach that leverages mechanistic interpretability techniques to craft practical adversarial inputs. Specifically, we first identify acceptance subspaces - sets of feature vectors that do not trigger the model's refusal mechanisms - then use gradient-based optimization to reroute embeddings from refusal subspaces to acceptance subspaces, effectively achieving jailbreaks. This targeted approach significantly reduces computation cost, achieving attack success rates of 80-95\% on state-of-the-art models including Gemma2, Llama3.2, and Qwen2.5 within minutes or even seconds, compared to existing techniques that often fail or require hours of computation. We believe this approach opens a new direction for both attack research and defense development. Furthermore, it showcases a practical application of mechanistic interpretability where other methods are less efficient, which highlights its utility. The code and generated datasets are available at https://github.com/Sckathach/subspace-rerouting.

Adversarial Perturbations Prevail in the Y-Channel of the YCbCr Color Space

Deep learning offers state of the art solutions for image recognition. However, deep models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations in images that are subtle but significantly change the model's prediction. In a white-box attack, these perturbations are generally learned for deep models that operate on RGB images and, hence, the perturbations are equally distributed in the RGB color space. In this paper, we show that the adversarial perturbations prevail in the Y-channel of the YCbCr space. Our finding is motivated from the fact that the human vision and deep models are more responsive to shape and texture rather than color. Based on our finding, we propose a defense against adversarial images. Our defence, coined ResUpNet, removes perturbations only from the Y-channel by exploiting ResNet features in an upsampling framework without the need for a bottleneck. At the final stage, the untouched CbCr-channels are combined with the refined Y-channel to restore the clean image. Note that ResUpNet is model agnostic as it does not modify the DNN structure. ResUpNet is trained end-to-end in Pytorch and the results are compared to existing defence techniques in the input transformation category. Our results show that our approach achieves the best balance between defence against adversarial attacks such as FGSM, PGD and DDN and maintaining the original accuracies of VGG-16, ResNet50 and DenseNet121 on clean images. We perform another experiment to show that learning adversarial perturbations only for the Y-channel results in higher fooling rates for the same perturbation magnitude.

Hard No-Box Adversarial Attack on Skeleton-Based Human Action Recognition with Skeleton-Motion-Informed Gradient

Recently, methods for skeleton-based human activity recognition have been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks. However, these attack methods require either the full knowledge of the victim (i.e. white-box attacks), access to training data (i.e. transfer-based attacks) or frequent model queries (i.e. black-box attacks). All their requirements are highly restrictive, raising the question of how detrimental the vulnerability is. In this paper, we show that the vulnerability indeed exists. To this end, we consider a new attack task: the attacker has no access to the victim model or the training data or labels, where we coin the term hard no-box attack. Specifically, we first learn a motion manifold where we define an adversarial loss to compute a new gradient for the attack, named skeleton-motion-informed (SMI) gradient. Our gradient contains information of the motion dynamics, which is different from existing gradient-based attack methods that compute the loss gradient assuming each dimension in the data is independent. The SMI gradient can augment many gradient-based attack methods, leading to a new family of no-box attack methods. Extensive evaluation and comparison show that our method imposes a real threat to existing classifiers. They also show that the SMI gradient improves the transferability and imperceptibility of adversarial samples in both no-box and transfer-based black-box settings.

You are caught stealing my winning lottery ticket! Making a lottery ticket claim its ownership

Despite tremendous success in many application scenarios, the training and inference costs of using deep learning are also rapidly increasing over time. The lottery ticket hypothesis (LTH) emerges as a promising framework to leverage a special sparse subnetwork (i.e., winning ticket) instead of a full model for both training and inference, that can lower both costs without sacrificing the performance. The main resource bottleneck of LTH is however the extraordinary cost to find the sparse mask of the winning ticket. That makes the found winning ticket become a valuable asset to the owners, highlighting the necessity of protecting its copyright. Our setting adds a new dimension to the recently soaring interest in protecting against the intellectual property (IP) infringement of deep models and verifying their ownerships, since they take owners' massive/unique resources to develop or train. While existing methods explored encrypted weights or predictions, we investigate a unique way to leverage sparse topological information to perform lottery verification, by developing several graph-based signatures that can be embedded as credentials. By further combining trigger set-based methods, our proposal can work in both white-box and black-box verification scenarios. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of lottery verification in diverse models (ResNet-20, ResNet-18, ResNet-50) on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100. Specifically, our verification is shown to be robust to removal attacks such as model fine-tuning and pruning, as well as several ambiguity attacks. Our codes are available at https://github.com/VITA-Group/NO-stealing-LTH.

White-Box Transformers via Sparse Rate Reduction: Compression Is All There Is?

In this paper, we contend that a natural objective of representation learning is to compress and transform the distribution of the data, say sets of tokens, towards a low-dimensional Gaussian mixture supported on incoherent subspaces. The goodness of such a representation can be evaluated by a principled measure, called sparse rate reduction, that simultaneously maximizes the intrinsic information gain and extrinsic sparsity of the learned representation. From this perspective, popular deep network architectures, including transformers, can be viewed as realizing iterative schemes to optimize this measure. Particularly, we derive a transformer block from alternating optimization on parts of this objective: the multi-head self-attention operator compresses the representation by implementing an approximate gradient descent step on the coding rate of the features, and the subsequent multi-layer perceptron sparsifies the features. This leads to a family of white-box transformer-like deep network architectures, named CRATE, which are mathematically fully interpretable. We show, by way of a novel connection between denoising and compression, that the inverse to the aforementioned compressive encoding can be realized by the same class of CRATE architectures. Thus, the so-derived white-box architectures are universal to both encoders and decoders. Experiments show that these networks, despite their simplicity, indeed learn to compress and sparsify representations of large-scale real-world image and text datasets, and achieve performance very close to highly engineered transformer-based models: ViT, MAE, DINO, BERT, and GPT2. We believe the proposed computational framework demonstrates great potential in bridging the gap between theory and practice of deep learning, from a unified perspective of data compression. Code is available at: https://ma-lab-berkeley.github.io/CRATE .

Label-Only Model Inversion Attacks via Knowledge Transfer

In a model inversion (MI) attack, an adversary abuses access to a machine learning (ML) model to infer and reconstruct private training data. Remarkable progress has been made in the white-box and black-box setups, where the adversary has access to the complete model or the model's soft output respectively. However, there is very limited study in the most challenging but practically important setup: Label-only MI attacks, where the adversary only has access to the model's predicted label (hard label) without confidence scores nor any other model information. In this work, we propose LOKT, a novel approach for label-only MI attacks. Our idea is based on transfer of knowledge from the opaque target model to surrogate models. Subsequently, using these surrogate models, our approach can harness advanced white-box attacks. We propose knowledge transfer based on generative modelling, and introduce a new model, Target model-assisted ACGAN (T-ACGAN), for effective knowledge transfer. Our method casts the challenging label-only MI into the more tractable white-box setup. We provide analysis to support that surrogate models based on our approach serve as effective proxies for the target model for MI. Our experiments show that our method significantly outperforms existing SOTA Label-only MI attack by more than 15% across all MI benchmarks. Furthermore, our method compares favorably in terms of query budget. Our study highlights rising privacy threats for ML models even when minimal information (i.e., hard labels) is exposed. Our study highlights rising privacy threats for ML models even when minimal information (i.e., hard labels) is exposed. Our code, demo, models and reconstructed data are available at our project page: https://ngoc-nguyen-0.github.io/lokt/

QuadAttack: A Quadratic Programming Approach to Ordered Top-K Attacks

The adversarial vulnerability of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) has been well-known and widely concerned, often under the context of learning top-1 attacks (e.g., fooling a DNN to classify a cat image as dog). This paper shows that the concern is much more serious by learning significantly more aggressive ordered top-K clear-box~ This is often referred to as white/black-box attacks in the literature. We choose to adopt neutral terminology, clear/opaque-box attacks in this paper, and omit the prefix clear-box for simplicity. targeted attacks proposed in Adversarial Distillation. We propose a novel and rigorous quadratic programming (QP) method of learning ordered top-K attacks with low computing cost, dubbed as QuadAttacK. Our QuadAttacK directly solves the QP to satisfy the attack constraint in the feature embedding space (i.e., the input space to the final linear classifier), which thus exploits the semantics of the feature embedding space (i.e., the principle of class coherence). With the optimized feature embedding vector perturbation, it then computes the adversarial perturbation in the data space via the vanilla one-step back-propagation. In experiments, the proposed QuadAttacK is tested in the ImageNet-1k classification using ResNet-50, DenseNet-121, and Vision Transformers (ViT-B and DEiT-S). It successfully pushes the boundary of successful ordered top-K attacks from K=10 up to K=20 at a cheap budget (1times 60) and further improves attack success rates for K=5 for all tested models, while retaining the performance for K=1.