Timestamps
"00:00:00 - Anonymity
00:01:09 - Automating Steve Jobs
00:04:38 - Isaac Newton's theory of progress
00:06:36 - Grand theory of intelligence
00:10:39 - Seeing scaling early
00:21:04 - AGI Timelines
00:22:54 - What to do in remaining 3 years until AGI
00:26:29 - Influencing the shoggoth with writing
00:30:50 - Human vs artificial intelligence
00:33:52 - Rabbit holes
00:38:48 - Hearing impairment
00:43:00 - Wikipedia editing
00:47:43 - Gwern.net
00:50:20 - Counterfactual careers
00:54:30 - Borges & literature
01:01:32 - Gwern's intelligence and process
01:11:03 - A day in the life of Gwern
01:19:16 - Gwern's finances
01:25:05 - The diversity of AI minds
01:27:24 - GLP drugs and obesity
01:31:08 - Drug experimentation
01:33:40 - Parasocial relationships
01:35:23 - Open rabbit holes"
"00:00:00 Llama 3
00:09:15 Coding on path to AGI
00:26:07 Energy bottlenecks
00:34:03 Is AI the most important technology ever?
00:38:04 Dangers of open source
00:54:40 Caesar Augustus and metaverse
01:05:36 Open sourcing the $10b model & custom silicon
01:16:02 Zuck as CEO of Google+"
"(00:00:00) - Post WW2 conflicts
(00:10:57) - Ukraine
(00:16:33) - How Truman Prevented Nuclear War
(00:22:49) - Taiwan
(00:27:15) - Churchill
(00:35:11) - Gaza & future wars
(00:39:05) - Could Hitler have won WW2?
(00:48:00) - Surprise attacks
(00:59:33) - Napoleon and startup founders
(01:14:06) - Andrew's insane productivity"
"(0:00:00) - Grand strategy
(0:11:59) - Death ground
(0:23:19) - WW1
(0:39:23) - Writing history
(0:50:25) - Japan in WW2
(0:59:58) - Ukraine
(1:10:50) - Japan/Germany vs Iraq/Afghanistan occupation
(1:21:25) - Chinese invasion of Taiwan
(1:51:26) - Communists & Axis
(2:08:34) - Continental vs maritime powers"
"(00:00:00) – Archaic and modern humans gene flow
(00:21:13) – How early modern humans dominated the world
(00:40:49) – How the bubonic plague rewrote history
(00:50:52) – Was agriculture terrible for humans?
(01:00:18) – Yamnaya expansion and how populations collide
(01:16:29) – “Lost civilizations” and our Neanderthal ancestry
(01:32:22) – The DNA Challenge
(01:42:37) – India's caste system
(01:47:40) – David's Career"
"00:00:00 – The ARC benchmark
00:11:53 – Why LLMs struggle with ARC
00:19:43 – Skill vs intelligence
00:28:38 – Do we need “AGI” to automate most jobs?
00:49:11 – Future of AI progress: deep learning + program synthesis
01:01:23 – How Mike Knoop got nerd-sniped by ARC
01:09:20 – Million $ ARC Prize
01:11:16 – Resisting benchmark saturation
01:18:51 – ARC scores on frontier vs open source models
01:27:02 – Possible solutions to ARC Prize"