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README.md
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configs:
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- config_name: forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08
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data_files: forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08.jsonl
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- config_name:
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data_files:
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size_categories:
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- n<1K
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---
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This dataset contains single-ID forecasting questions derived from the [ForecastBench project](https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets). It includes two configurations:
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- `forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08`: Contains 429 forecasting questions with resolved real-world outcomes.
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## Dataset Structure
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- `question`: The forecasting question text.
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- `background`: Additional context or background information.
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- `source`: Origin of the question (e.g., "manifold").
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- `answer`: Binary outcome (0 or 1) representing the resolved real-world result.
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- `human_public_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the public human group.
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- `human_super_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the superforecaster (expert) human group.
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dataset = load_dataset("Duruo/forecastbench-single_question", name="forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08")
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# Load the dataset with human forecasts
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dataset_with_human = load_dataset("Duruo/forecastbench-single_question", name="
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```
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## License and Attribution
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configs:
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- config_name: forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08
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data_files: forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08.jsonl
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- config_name: forecastbench_single_questions_human_2024-07-21
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data_files: forecastbench_single_questions_human_2024-07-21.jsonl
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size_categories:
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- n<1K
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---
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This dataset contains single-ID forecasting questions derived from the [ForecastBench project](https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets). It includes two configurations:
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- `forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08`: Contains 429 forecasting questions with resolved real-world outcomes.
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- `forecastbench_single_questions_human_2024-07-21`: Contains 473 questions with resolved real-world outcomes, augmented with human forecast probabilities from public and superforecaster groups.
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## Dataset Structure
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- `question`: The forecasting question text.
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- `background`: Additional context or background information.
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- `source`: Origin of the question (e.g., "manifold").
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- `source_intro`: A standardized prompt prefix shown to forecasters, e.g."We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You’re going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as ‘Yes’."
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- `answer`: Binary outcome (0 or 1) representing the resolved real-world result.
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- `human_public_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the public human group.
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- `human_super_forecast`: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the superforecaster (expert) human group.
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dataset = load_dataset("Duruo/forecastbench-single_question", name="forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08")
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# Load the dataset with human forecasts
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dataset_with_human = load_dataset("Duruo/forecastbench-single_question", name="forecastbench_single_questions_human_2024-07-21")
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```
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## License and Attribution
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