Datasets:

Duruo
/

forecastbench-single_question

id string	question string	background string	source string	source_intro string
njIsNltHOS7eR4ZUgaXX	Will a New York sports team win a championship by the end of the 2025 sports season?	This market will resolve YES if one of the following major New York metropolitan area-based teams wins their respective championship by the conclusion of the 2025 NFL season (Latest Feb 9, 2026 – Super Bowl 60) New York Mets – World Series New York Yankees – World Series New York Giants – Super Bowl New York Jets – Super Bowl New York Red Bulls – MLS Cup or Leagues Cup New York City FC – MLS Cup or Leagues Cup New York Nets – NBA Final New York Knicks – NBA Final New York Rangers – Stanley Cup New York Islanders – Stanley Cup The two New York football teams, although not physically based in the NY Metropolitan area, will be considered New York teams for the purpose of the market. Other small-market teams, such as the WNBA's NY Liberty, MLR New York Rugby, or NLL Lacrosse will not be counted.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
YVmNKSXBBxo2I3DXL3ge	Will Manchester City win the 2024/25 Premier League?	Will resolve based on the Premier League's official announcement of which team is the winner of the 2024/25 season. https://www.premierleague.com/	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5XPX94l5MEPEdlRYoYvn	Will an SEC school win the 2024-25 CFP National Championship?	SEC refers to the Southeastern Conference, CFP is the Division I FBS College Football Playoff. The teams include Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
0587u5Mk7ng2NaOkgCu1	Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?	Top-10 players to be determined by https://www.espn.com/tennis/rankings, or other official rankings list. A "televised match" consists of either a conventional TV broadcast or a youtube video with over 100k views.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
j77xsrAcelYkOAdy4Tz7	Will Joel Embiid finish his career with 2 or more regular season MVPs?		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
mJEq1SbuIVP9PBJrspof	Will there be a "low scorigami" before 2030?	In the original scorigami video, Jon Bois also coins the term "low scorigami", to describe a scorigami where both teams score 15 points or fewer. He then showcases the most recent case of low scorigami at the time, a 2011 49ers-Bengals game that ended 13-8. Since the video was published in 2016, while there have been many new scorigami, there have been no low scorigami. With only one low scorigami in the entire 2010s, will this decade see even a single instance of it? This market resolves YES if an NFL game ends with a final score that has never occurred before in which both teams score 15 points or fewer before January 1st, 2030. I will use https://nflscorigami.com/ for resolution, or another reliable source if the site no longer exists.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4fPq6PiY40SUrZGL7cb5	Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?	This question resolves as YES if Magnus Carlsen, the Classical World Chess Champion as of 2022, participates either in: (1) An event, such as a candidates tournament, which is primarily intended to select the next contender for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship. (2) Or Carlsen otherwise is a challenger for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship. Criteria and clarifications. If Carlsen competes in a tournament or tournaments which are qualification events for a candidates tournament, then that does not count as competing for the world championship. For example, if winning first place in the Sinquefield Cup earns the winner a spot in the candidates tournament, then participating in the Sinquefield Cup does not count as competing for the world championship. But if Carlsen wins first place at the Sinquefield Cup and opts to participate in the candidates tournament, then this question will resolve as YES. The Sinquefield Cup does not count as a world championship competition because its chief reason for existing is not to serve as a WCC selection event. The official World Classical Chess Championship is the WCC contest administered by FIDE (or FIDE's successor if it should cease to exist as the main governing body of international chess competitions). Under these terms, Fischer's last match against Spassky and Kasparov's championships after the Kasparov-Short competition do not count as FIDE Classical World Chess Championships.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
qHvlpClQ3NOnS3yD46oB	F1 2024 - Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of George Russell in the WDC?	The 2024 F1 season kicks off this week - the first race is the Bahrain Grand Prix on Saturday 2nd March. This will be Lewis Hamilton's last season with Mercedes as he has announced that he will be leaving for Ferrari next year. Will he beat his teammate George Russell in the drivers' championship in their final season together? Notes: This market will go by the official WDC rankings. If the two drivers are tied on points, WDC positions are decided on countback (ie. most wins is used as a tiebreaker, then most second places, etc). If one of the two drivers withdraws, moves team during the season, leaves the sport or misses races for any reason at all, the market will still resolve as normal to the driver who is ahead in the WDC. The market will resolve early if one driver is so far ahead that the other driver can't beat them even if they get maximum points for the rest of the season.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
wRkw1ZsHuBFpmocjHq73	Will the Philadelphia 76ers or Philadelphia Eagles win a championship by 2028?	Market will resolve YES if the Eagles or 76ers win a championship by 2028, will resolve N/A if both teams relocate to another city for whatever reason.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG	Will Saudi Arabia abandon (or vastly scale back) the NEOM linear city project by 2028?	Abandoned in this case will mean: Explicitly cancelled Shelved indefinitely (like Jeddah Tower) with no measurable progress in design or construction Scaled back to something vastly more modest (at my disgression) I will try to judge these criteria as objectively as possible, I do have the personal opinion the project is unrealistic though.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7LxcLPJKi3jA86XghgQE	Will Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations before 2025?		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
llC0sSgzg8	Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?	Linked to this Kalshi question: If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED. Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
s1sb2v5t9m	Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?	Recently, MrBeast got into some heat for a few things, including the content in this vid and this vid Legal offenses can be divided into three main categories under the North Carolina justice system: infractions, misdemeanors, and felonies. Infractions are non-criminal (will NOT resolve YES with non-criminal infraction alone), or petty offenses, while misdemeanors and felonies are the two main types of criminal offenses. If MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) is charged and convicted, found guilty, for any crime (misdemeanor or felony or criminal infraction) by any state in the US, before the end of 2026, then this market resolves YES. Otherwise this market will resolve NO on Dec 31st, 2026. also, if he’s mid trial during the deadline with no criminal conviction yet this will resolve NO even if he gets convicted in that particular trial after the deadline (which will be 11:59pm ET) Comment any questions or news you have! 💙	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
63IqOzxPIVsOkeXJXVIx	Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of a crime before Alec Baldwin? (50% if neither before end of 2030)	Resolves 50% if neither happens by the end of 2030	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
I4pkLvl2R7ZafZth2xIm	Will Manifold add tabs (like the US Elections one) for other important elections this year?	Resolves Yes if Manifold does add a tab for another election (Indian, Russian, etc...). Resolves No if Manifold never adds anything after the US elections tab. (Will resolve Yes at any time in the year if it does happen but No at the end of the year).	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX	Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?	The OpenAI board fired Sam Altman in 2023, see Wikipedia. While Sam Altman returned, he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved, so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again, to uphold the non-profit mission. Will this happen in 2024?	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
C88rQObEu5LerDKbrA2V	Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?	If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as “Yes”. This market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe Biden has left office or finished his first presidential term, even if he gets re-elected for a second term.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3	In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?	EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ	Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune?	Denis Villeneuve’s last two films have been Dune (2021) and Dune: Part Two (2024). Will his next film be set in the Dune-iverse? This will Resolve once there is a film with a release date (day and year) with Denis Villeneuve attached to direct. If it is unclear if the film is related to Dune, this may stay open until he or the studio clarifies. If Denis says he’s doing a fully secret project, this market will stay open until this the film’s Dune-relatedness is clear (potentially up until the release of the film). Even if the film is later scrapped, or another film is released first, this market will not re-resolve. This market will extend as needed.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
AhQLzRl29O	Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed before end of year?	This market will resolve to YES if Nintendo's next generation system is revealed by Nintendo before December 31st, 2024 at 11:59PM PST. A reveal will be defined as a major announcement that shows official imagery or render of the new system and an official name. Anything remotely resembling the original Switch's reveal trailer would qualify, but something such as a social media posting showing a visual of the system and its name would resolve to YES as well.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
sis542tw6o	Will there be consensus on who Dwarkesh's "biggest guest yet" was, before Q3 2025? (Resolves to poll)	For context, see this tweet. Within the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet. If you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at [email protected] See also @/Ziddletwix/will-manifold-agree-that-dwarkeshs I think it's not clear that these markets will be unambiguous and satisfactorily resolved, therefore I created this one. Resolution ‌ A few separate possibilities to resolution here 1) See: Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"? Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to. The phrasing will be something along the lines of "Do you agree that [NAME] was the person Dwarkesh alluded to with the 'by far the biggest guest yet' tweet?", with options "Agree" and "Disagree". If "Agree" has ≥80% of votes, this market resolves YES. If it has less this market resolves to NO. 2) The above market does not resolve before Q2 2025, but one alternative has traded at ≥80% consistently over a week (brief dents below 80% don't matter) --> Resolves to YES 3) Toward the end of Q2 2025, neither of the above has happened. I run a poll similar to what's described above, with my best guess at a name. Resolves to YES if ≥80% "Agree" on the suggested name. 4) Dwarkesh unambiguously confirms who the person referred to is/was, this resolves to YES immediately. 5) Unaccounted for by me, but very reasonable scenarios, that I think should resolve to YES or NO, outside of the above. Feel free to suggest improvements to these criteria and conditions, or ask for clarifications. I will not trade in this market, to better allow for fair resolution.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
POZ2i84qdzsmKIN5b2xd	Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' become the highest-grossing movie of all time?	'Avatar: The Way of Water' (2022) is the second instalment of the Avatar film series directed by James Cameron. This is a market on whether 'Avatar: The Way of Water' will become the highest-grossing movie of all time, worldwide. [image]The BoxOfficeMojo stats will be used to resolve this market, available at: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/ww_top_lifetime_gross/?area=XWW&ref_=bo_cso_ac This is the current (January 9, 2023) list of Top 10 highest-grossing movies: [image]this market will resolve to YES as soon as Avatar: The Way of Water hits the #1 box office spot this market will resolve to NO, if Avatar: The Way of Water does not hit the box office record before December 31 2025.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
aiNlyFriJblyntb0i6OZ	Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?	Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esports#Olympic_Games_recognition Can be either winter or summer olympics @/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the-5a91bcfb8700 @/strutheo/will-a-video-game-be-played-in-the	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G	Will GTA VI get delayed again?	GTA	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
2aCl7NxBTxMVrE8VX2AA	Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
6KE2Xg2UZfJzNWXXpSzo	Will Grimes come out of retirement in 2024?	On the evening of December 29, 2023, Grimes posted, "My friends are convincing me to come out of retirement this year." Assuming she meant "this coming year" and not in the final days of 2023, will this happen? I propose to resolve on the following criteria: The market will resolve as YES if Grimes releases a new album or EP before December 31, 2024. The release must be officially announced by Grimes and be available on major streaming platforms or physical formats. The market will resolve as YES if Grimes performs live as Grimes (distinct from a DJ set or guest feature) in a tour that begins before December 31, 2024. For the purposes of this market, a "tour" means at least 5 performances across different cities, OR anything that is officially called a tour by Grimes. The performances must be officially announced by Grimes or the event organizers and be open to the public. The market will resolve as NO otherwise. I am open to recommendations (from Grimes or any interested parties) on the details of the resolution criteria. Related market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Clark/if-grimes-comes-out-of-retirement-i)	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
JxcpJTGSurSdSMlFxYhL	Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
fovo3TFMXjJLhkL1hw9G	Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025?	Resolves YES if an AI can gain a perfect score of 1600 on an SAT under standard conditions before Jan 1, 2025, resolves NO otherwise.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5WEpXLx31YdM11zOdo4h	Will we get AGI before 2027?	Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2027 Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other questions for 2027: @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-14d109820be6 @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313 @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1 Other points of reference for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
gAP7GeQcilJakRbGnAta	Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?	Resolves YES if there are more then 2,000 active daily users in January 2025 (monthly average). At its core, the question asks whether this social network will die after the hype has passed (like Clubhouse did) or if it will at least maintain the same level of interest as it has now, 2 weeks after it was featured in the New York Times magazine. [image]	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
YvayfreXRtBvubSPKgmm	Will we get AGI before 2032?	Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience. Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2032 Here are markets with the same criteria: @/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 Related markets: @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 @/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 Other questions for 2032: @/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-b347b1a76a97 @/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc @/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0 @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406 @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d @/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f @/RemNi/will-ai-extend-english-before-2032 @/RemNi/discovery-of-matter-outside-our-3d @/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-93569dad097d @/RemNi/will-we-get-rouge-ai-before-2032 Other points of reference for AGI: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
KqFhckN3PBuJE7tZcbaf	Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?	This question is based on a study suggesting the potential presence of the Meissner effect in copper-substituted lead apatite near room temperature. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if firm, peer-reviewed evidence or independent/laboratory verification confirming this is published by December 31, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999 https://twitter.com/mattparlmer/status/1742566608554627227	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
YREnvVjBXi5qQFCQhzSv	In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?	I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
kpG0hv16d75ai3JcKZds	In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?	I will try to resolve this from estimates available at the time, but no guarantee of perfect accuracy.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
UQRBDDvSiDEEsJbevE4p	Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?	[This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork] This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL	Will over 70% of Manifold users think that Elon Musk does not deserve 100 billion dollars?	Resolves according to this poll (https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenWatts/does-elon-musk-deserve-100-billion) Take the total vote on "No", divided by the total number of voters on the market, to compute the % voted on "No". Market Resolves Yes if the % voted on "No" is larger than 70% at the end of 2024	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
YleFhm7mAbAVzTW1dUmI	Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?	If an authoritative international labor or employment agency (like the International Labour Organization or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases a report stating that generative AI has replaced more than 50 million jobs globally by 11:59 PM Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on December 31, 2024, the prediction will resolve as 'yes'. Any other outcome means the prediction is resolved as 'no'. Resolution is based on reports from these organizations.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v	Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?	Here's the video: https://youtu.be/DB5TfX7eaVY	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
9t61v9e7x4	Trump impose large tariffs in first year?	Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency. Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest. If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter. If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found. See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
WDTbFd6CPJezD1j41U5s	Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?	This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, but for 2025 instead of 2023. For the sake of consistency with that market, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems non-obvious to me. For convenience, what follows is the description of the linked market: > I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count: > 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans > 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art > 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech > 4. A technological singularity, obviously > 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm Nov 29, 5:10pm: Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025? → Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER	Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?	Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
OtYXU09UqSgGNknztbl4	Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]	Twitter threads https://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686491104139673602 https://twitter.com/vansianism/status/1686498249807626241 https://twitter.com/gigaj0ule/status/1686814611658715136 First tweet of last thread: "Small molecule oral cancer drug kills 100% of solid tumors across 70 evaluated cancer types in vitro and in animal models with a therapeutic index of 6 and no discernible side effects". Name of the paper "Small molecule targeting of transcription replication conflict for selective chemotherapy". Link to paper in the Twitter threads. Twitter search: https://twitter.com/search?q=AOH1996 Resolves YES if Phase II human clinical trials are conclusive. "Conclusive" according to the scientific consensus at the time of publication of the Phase II human clinical trials results. As I'm no doctor, I will have to rely on this. If there's no consensus, I may put an arbitrary threshold such as 70% efficacy against 50 types of cancers, as I don't expect 100% efficacy on all cancer types in human trials, and as that would validate the drug's mechanism of effect anyway. Resolves NO if Phase II human clinical trials are inconclusive, or earlier if research fraud or errors such as huge in vitro results misinterpretations are revealed. Resolution set arbitrarily at the end of 2028 because Phase I human clinical trials started in October 2022 and last two years. No indication yet of the duration of Phase II trials. End of 2028 is already a somewhat optimistic date for the end of Phase II trials. But such trials can be shortened when drugs show exceptional efficacy in life-threatening conditions, such as with Imatinib, sold as Gleevec/Glivec. I may delay the resolution of the market if acceptable reasons for delays in the clinical trials are given. If other researchers/doctors accept the reasons given for delay, then it's acceptable. If they don't, if they suspect something fishy, eg unfavorable results, then market resolves NO. If there's no consensus, market is extended. I won't trade in this market for objectivity.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
szUrSgdNQDBxn14E5D7E	Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?	Born December 7, 1928	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
orkfisZxTY9ratCDidWK	Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?	See: https://lifeview.com https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection Doesn't matter what the traits selected are; can be predicted health, personality traits, intelligence, criminality, whatever. Just matters that the embryo was selected based on not specific, simple criteria (i.e. how many chromosomes a fertilized egg has or whether or not it will have sickle cell disease) but more wide ranging quality of life or "child success" predictions.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
2oixTQc9MRUud7wZ1tT5	Will any of the four main characters of Severance die in season 2?	Mark, Helly, Dylan, and Irving Death between season 1 and 2 also counts, assuming season 2 takes place after 1. Specifically medical death (brain death, no heartbeat, etc).	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
bY7teJbG37L9ale1IQ4m	By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?		manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7	Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?	This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.") This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.) If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.) "Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an intentional release. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained. In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people. I won't bet in this market.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
Vn56ON2GtAd65aSB4A5m	Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?	Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent "alive" counts.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
NYISJsNFjI3aIMGExGgo	Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?	Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5PBiCM7mofSHR55eoXkP	Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024?	I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10880/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2030/	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
AM1axfn3jAan7o8XYSfW	Will Zubear Abdi face legal trouble for sharing explicit photos of Taylor Swift generated by AI?	Legal troubles generally refer to situations where an individual or entity faces legal challenges or actions due to alleged violations of laws or regulations. This can encompass a variety of scenarios, including: 1. Criminal Charges 2. Civil Lawsuits 3. Regulatory Actions 4. Investigations 5. Legal Notices and Cease-and-Desist Letters 6. Arbitration and Mediation In each of these scenarios, the individual or entity typically needs to engage with the legal system, which can involve hiring legal representation, responding to legal actions, appearing in court, or complying with legal decisions and judgments. Will resolve by the end of 2024 based on information available from credible news sources.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
RiB3ECnJ48CXPeRVKKu7	Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?	This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Ukrainian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war. It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part. Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Ukrainian victory" or "Ukrainian victory with territorial losses". Resolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the "result" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the "result" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO. The closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
PzPTjSi9k6JCDUYqPpe8	Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?	Will resolve to YES, if at any point before the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces control majority of Crimea territory resolution source: Institute for the Study of War, https://www.understandingwar.org/	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
cb4s0TO4eh4exBuFyldp	Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?	If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive. Market open until it happens See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
Cjc9jjkQvT0hBWFGoaN7	Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?	Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects. Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains). The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of previous markets. See also: [markets]	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
WApsfsjdZXrGDA1OPLs5	Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?	(Inspired by 2004’s “I, Robot” starring Will Smith.) Will something resembling a robot uprising (as seen in the film) occur by EOY 2035? For the purposes of this market I am loosening the resolution criteria a bit more than what literally occurs in the movie—the “uprising” can happen in just one city, humans do not necessarily need to die or be seriously injured, and an AGI does not need to be the mastermind of the rebellion. For example, if some crazy mad haxx0r managed to seize control of all Tesla vehicles within a certain city and have the cars drive themselves outside of city limits for a full day while city infrastructure was being reprogrammed by him (or something) that would count as a “yes.” Essentially: 1) Widespread disruption due to automata failing to fulfill their normal tasks 2) Disruptions cover at least one major metropolitan area 3) Disruptions are due to intent from either AGI or a malicious human (internal idiocy would not count e.g. Elon Musk deciding to do a little trolling in DC for a week) 4) Disruptions in automata go on for at least 24 hours 5) The actions of the automata are not recognized as being directly to the material benefit of either their owners and/or human society at large: this means that only one condition here needs to be satisfied. Examples: 5a) a robot uprising may occur against the owners’ short-term interests (they stop doing the laundry without permission or something) in favor of humanity’s long-term interests (they work together to save the last key species in an ecosystem essential for biosphere regulation). 5b) a robot uprising may occur in the owners’ short-term interests but counter to those of humanity as a whole, I.e. a small group of wealthy robot owners command their bots to destroy any and all assets of unionized workers employed in their factories. 5c) a robot uprising may occur wherein agricultural robots act against owners’ short-term interests by setting crops on fire (destroying profits) and humanity’s long-term interests (prolonged hunger/shortages due to reduced agricultural output). Any of the above three scenarios would satisfy condition #5, but conditions #1-4 must also be satisfied to resolve as a “yes.” Movie for context: (https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Dlo-VB0-HI?si=avgO-jZTUPj0WCsy)	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD	Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?	2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
q6wJThcy6TJnQKrbjALm	Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?	Majority is 50%+ and it's worldwide marketshare	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
cLxfTH5GDfmqeNJwClVF	Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?	This question will resolve as YES if more than 50% of new cars sold worldwide in the year 2030 are electric. The source for determining the percentage of electric cars sold will be the International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report on electric vehicles. The report will be released in 2031 and will provide data on the percentage of electric cars sold in 2030. This question does not include hybrid cars, only fully electric cars. The question does not consider any potential changes in regulations or government policies that may affect the sales of electric cars. This question does not consider any potential changes in consumer behavior or technology development that may affect the sales of electric cars.	manifold	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
2713	Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7925	Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected "designer babies" be born in China?	[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
9534	Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?	Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). The United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of "changing a baby's characteristics" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as "eugenics". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy. [American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
9524	Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?	Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) One of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2 ) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future. Israel has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome. Israel had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860). Judaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8602	Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?	There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
11164	Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?	The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years. While COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/) There are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including: * [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100) * [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat) * [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w) * [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/) * [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention) * [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention) The purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4290	Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5265	Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?	From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size), > Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese. Advocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size), > As part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health. > Research shows that there are a high percentage of people in the "overweight" or even "obese" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of "normal" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years? Other researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/), > The validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013). Nonetheless, Fontana et al. state, > the prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance. reflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
21548	Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?	Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) mentioning that intervention [cannot be ruled out](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/). The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine. Should Russia expand its Ukraine war, possibly carrying it beyond the initial war goals of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, a direct conflict seems more plausible. Possible theaters of operation include Russia and Ukraine proper (in their internationally recognized borders), the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltic States, and Moldova (including Transnistria.)	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
21137	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state. Ethiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an "existential question". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force. Ethiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
18663	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?	Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn. There have been four previous questions of this type on Metaculus. Each of them resolved as “No.” - [Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3900/will-the-us-see-a-massive-riot-in-2020/) by Jgalt - [Will there be a major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6244/large-scale-rioting-in-us-in-early-2021/) by Jgalt - [Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15573/huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023/) by Matthew_Barnett - [Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4536/will-the-us-see-widespread-rioting-in-2020/) by juancambeiro	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8398	Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?	Related Questions on Metaculus: * [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/) * [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/) * [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/) * [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/) * [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/) ---- Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about: * how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange * what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects) For example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on "[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)". See [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8605	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following: > - "SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019." - "We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon" - "Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way." - "China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged" However, while "all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident," the IC "remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19": > - "Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus" - "One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology." - "Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information" The declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may "alter our evaluation of hypotheses" and that, in the past, the "identification of animal sources has taken years."	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8370	If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?	Related Question on Metaculus: * [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/) ---- Different nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
21805	Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?	In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). And between [trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [restrictions](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/) and [air defense zone incursions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21801/taiwan-adiz-violations/#:~:text=Relations%20have%20grown%20worse%20over%20recent%20years%3A%20in%202021%20there%20were%2021%20days%20of%20%E2%80%9Creactionary%E2%80%9D%20air%20incursions%2C%20while%20in%202022%20there%20were%2055%2C%20and%20in%202023%20there%20were%2064%20(Brown%20%26%20Lewis%2C%202024).), relations between China and Taiwan have taken a turn for the worse since then. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation, namely, that China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure. As context, assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University has suggested that [cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.voanews.com/a/how-china-could-cyberattack-taiwan/6349594.html), making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
16164	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II. Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come. On September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying >When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
25499	Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?	Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes). After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly, but transit remained, and agreements [were renewed](https://www.naftogaz.com/en/news/naftogaz-gtsou-and-gazprom-signed-a-set-of-agreements-to-ensure-russian-gas-transit-over-the-next-five-years) in 2019 for five years. Even the Russia-Ukraine war didn't stop the flow, although transit levels dropped by [an order of magnitude](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/) since its heights in 2008. The current bilateral agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the Ukraine government said [it doesn't plan to extend or renew it](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plan-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/). However, Ukraine remains reliant on Russian natural gas, which is still bought via [virtual reverse flow](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/ukraine-launches-virtual-gas-reverse-flow-slovakia.html). Replacing it with actual reverse flow requires large capital investments, and it is not clear if infrastructure can be prepared in time.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7872	Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?	In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban. The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
15098	Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?	After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and market economy, but his efforts were hampered by political and economic difficulties. However, in 1999, Yeltsin resigned and was succeeded by Vladimir Putin, who has been in power ever since. Under Putin, Russia has seen a consolidation of power in the hands of the presidency, and the suppression of political opposition and independent media, resulting in what has been called one of the most [“consequential setbacks among the third and fourth waves of democratization”.](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s successful defence and resultant Russian military losses, there has been significant discussion about a post-Putin Russia, with the possibility of a [coup](https://www.businessinsider.com/military-coup-russia-likely-anger-grows-toward-putin-ex-aide-2023-1?r=US&IR=T) raised by many. [Analysts](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) are [divided](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-political-regimes/) on what a Russia after Putin will look like; though it remains quite likely that the years following Putin’s departure as president will be a potential turning point for Russia and for democracy. > What happens to Russian autocracy after Putin, however, is more uncertain. The current regime is deeply tied to Putin personally. Strikingly, Putin has failed at building an effective political party; United Russia bears little resemblance to the CPSU or the Chinese Communist Party today. > Russians are shaped but not trapped forever by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions. If some Russians in the past took decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy. It happened before and can again. How Russia will change (if it does) after Putin ceases to be president has large potential effects for the security landscape in Europe and geopolitical balances of power worldwide.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
19298	Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?	Holden Karnofsky, in [Nearcast-based "deployment problem" analysis](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vZzg8NS7wBtqcwhoJ/nearcast-based-deployment-problem-analysis), suggests establishing an organization, which he calls the IAIA: an organization, which could range from a private nonprofit to a treaty-backed international agency, that tracks transformative AI projects and takes actions to censure or shut down dangerous ones. This IAIA organization would play a similar role to that which the [IAEA](https://www.iaea.org/) plays in nuclear weapons regulation. The IAEA enforces nuclear weapons restrictions through on-site inspections, monitoring, and analysis of environmental samples, as well as by providing technical assistance and promoting transparency.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7631	Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?	The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5540	Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?	A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference. We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states "judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8526	If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?	Related Question on Metaculus: * [When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/) ---- The [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion. It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz). The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process. The court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting. The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_(1976)), and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
18551	Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?	Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching activities. However, such a global system would require significant technological, legal, and diplomatic efforts.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
20767	Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?	The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the "Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the "Fort Wayne Pistons" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the "Pistons" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry. [There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
18258	Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?	Marine pollution has long been a pressing issue for the international community. With the advent of globalized industries and the expansion of maritime activities, the health of our oceans has suffered enormously. While various international agreements have been established to protect marine ecosystems and reduce pollution, their effectiveness is often limited by the lack of comprehensive and timely monitoring and enforcement mechanisms. In recent years, the rapid advancement of space-based technologies, such as satellites and remote sensing instruments, has [shown the potential](https://www.saic.com/features/ocean-health-tracked-using-satellite-imagery) to revolutionize the field of oceanic surveillance. These tools promise real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies. The [UN High Seas Treaty](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1137857#:~:text=The%20UN%27s%20193%20Member%20States,thirds%20of%20the%20planet%27s%20oceans.) is a [landmark legally binding marine biodiversity agreement](https://phys.org/news/2023-06-high-seas-treaty-ocean.html) that dictates use and protection of "The Area" aka the parts of the ocean that are not under sovereign jurisdiction. [Enforcing this treaty](https://www.groundstation.space/un-high-seas-treaty-will-need-satellite-enforcement/) will require methods of monitoring expansive swaths of ocean sustainably. This raises an intriguing question about the potential for effective use of satellite systems to reduce marine pollution and enforce the treaty. The answer could have profound implications for our collective ability to safeguard the planet's vital marine ecosystems.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
1493	By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?	You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/). It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks. There are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do. Secondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon. Moreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
24789	Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?	Kaskida is an offshore oil field located in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), first discovered [in 2006](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-announces-significant-discovery-in-the-deepwater-gulf-of-mexi.html). With c. 3 billion barrels of oil it is one of the largest discovered. However, the Kaskida is an ultra-high pressure (UHP) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) oil field which makes exploiting the development challenging. UHP / UHT fields require blow-out preventers capable preventing the release of hydrocarbons into the ocean in the event of loss of well control (i.e., a "blow-out"). Indeed, UHP fields require highly complex and massive drillships which are both capable of reaching to the seabed extreme depths, as well as dealing with the pressures. Today, this technology exists: - Oil & Gas equipment provider APL NOV has successfully developed and manufactured a ["20K" blow-out preventer (BOP)](https://www.nov.com/about/news/20k-bops-will-revolutionize-subsea-pressure-control), and - Transocean has constructed an eighth-generation ultra-deepwater [drillship](https://www.deepwater.com//documents/RigSpecs/Deepwater%20Atlas.pdf) equipped with the aforementioned BOP. Aside from technology, BP have a tenuous history in the GoM, perhaps most notably due to the infamous Deepwater Horizon [disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill) which resulted in the largest oil spill in history, and possibly the worst environmental disaster in history. The aftermath of Deepwater Horizon resulted in years of oil production stagnation in the GoM. Javier Blas, for Bloomberg, summarises the challenges BP face in the development of Kaskida: >BP, in particular, has a lot to prove. Its CEO may be excited about developing the Kaskida oilfield, but environmentalists, climate activists and left-leaning US lawmakers are unlikely to be enthusiastic about the prospect of the British oil major drilling a complex and challenging well in the Gulf of Mexico of all places. Everyone deserves a second chance, but US federal regulators must keep a close eye on the future of Kaskida and all other new Paleogene oil fields. BP should focus on convincing everyone that it’s up to the task, rather than simply trumpeting the riches that await beneath the bottom of the sea. ----------------------- Will BP successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
489	Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?	Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions) Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C. [Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030: - At least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy - At least 27% increase in energy efficiency	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
18266	Will the International Maritime Organization permit more sulphur oxide pollution by 2030?	From [‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unintended test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth](https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth), Science, 02 August 2023: > Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) have cut ships’ sulfur pollution by more than 80% and improved air quality worldwide. The reduction has also lessened the effect of sulfate particles in seeding and brightening the distinctive low-lying, reflective clouds that follow in the wake of ships and help cool the planet. The 2020 IMO rule “is a big natural experiment,” says Duncan Watson-Parris, an atmospheric physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “We’re changing the clouds.” > > By dramatically reducing the number of ship tracks, the planet has warmed up faster, several new studies have found. That trend is magnified in the Atlantic, where maritime traffic is particularly dense. In the shipping corridors, the increased light represents a 50% boost to the warming effect of human carbon emissions. It’s as if the world suddenly lost the cooling effect from a fairly large volcanic eruption each year, says Michael Diamond, an atmospheric scientist at Florida State University. > > The natural experiment created by the IMO rules is providing a rare opportunity for climate scientists to study a geoengineering scheme in action—although it is one that is working in the wrong direction. Indeed, one such strategy to slow global warming, called marine cloud brightening, would see ships inject salt particles back into the air, to make clouds more reflective. In Diamond’s view, the dramatic decline in ship tracks is clear evidence that humanity could cool off the planet significantly by brightening the clouds. “It suggests pretty strongly that if you wanted to do it on purpose, you could,” he says. --- In [IMO 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions](https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-2020.aspx), the IMO discusses in detail the regulation in question. > On 1 January 2020, a new limit on the sulphur content in the fuel oil used on board ships came into force, marking a significant milestone to improve air quality, preserve the environment and protect human health. > > Known as “IMO 2020”, the rule limits the sulphur in the fuel oil used on board ships operating outside designated emission control areas to 0.50% m/m (mass by mass) - a significant reduction from the previous limit of 3.5%. Within specific designated emission control areas the limits were already stricter (0.10%). This new limit was made compulsory following an amendment to Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL). > > The resulting reduction in sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships is having major health and environmental benefits for the world, particularly for populations living close to ports and coasts. Sulphur oxides are harmful to human health, causing respiratory, cardiovascular and lung disease. Once released in the atmosphere, SOx  can lead to acid rain, which impacts crops, forests and aquatic species and contributes to the acidification of the oceans.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
10176	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
6558	Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
349	Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?	[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an "Interplanetary Transport System" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach. The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX "gets lucky and things go according to plan", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. There have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
8516	Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?	The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality) >an enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera) Some expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) >By 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050). According to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/).	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
3608	Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?		metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
5875	Will online poker be dead on January 1, 2031?	In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) >Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train. In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/) In 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says) >“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note. According to https://www.pokerscout.com/, as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4409	Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?	[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is "awareness or sentience of internal or external existence". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being "at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives". This question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). Instead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
397	Will RoboCup announce that robots have beaten professional human soccer players before 2050?	The [RoboCup](http://www.robocup.org/objective) (short for Robot World Cup Initiative) was launched in the mid-1990s as a "grand challenge" in robotics. The RoboCup Federation hosts annual RoboCup competitions where robotic teams compete in soccer matches. In [a paper published in 1995](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.49.7511) the creators of the RoboCup describe the initiative as >an attempt to foster AI and intelligent robotics research by providing a standard problem where [a] wide range of technologies can be integrated and examined. The stated ultimate goal of the RoboCup Initiative is: > By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. As a part of this process, annual RoboCup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
7509	Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?	Related Question on Metaculus: * [Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/conviction-in-us-for-bitcoin-ownership-2060/) ----	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
4934	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA. After that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.	metaculus	We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.

End of preview. Expand in Data Studio

ForecastBench Single Questions

This dataset contains single-ID forecasting questions derived from the ForecastBench project. It includes two configurations:

forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08: Contains 429 forecasting questions with resolved real-world outcomes.
forecastbench_single_questions_human_2024-07-21: Contains 473 questions with resolved real-world outcomes, augmented with human forecast probabilities from public and superforecaster groups.

Dataset Structure

Each entry in the dataset is a JSON object with the following fields:

id: Unique identifier for the question.
question: The forecasting question text.
background: Additional context or background information.
source: Origin of the question (e.g., "manifold").
source_intro: A standardized prompt prefix shown to forecasters, e.g."We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Manifold. You’re going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as ‘Yes’."
answer: Binary outcome (0 or 1) representing the resolved real-world result.
human_public_forecast: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the public human group.
human_super_forecast: (Optional) Forecast probability made by the superforecaster (expert) human group.

Usage

To load a specific configuration using the Hugging Face datasets library:

from datasets import load_dataset

# Load the base dataset without human forecasts
dataset = load_dataset("Duruo/forecastbench-single_question", name="forecastbench_single_questions_2024-12-08")

# Load the dataset with human forecasts
dataset_with_human = load_dataset("Duruo/forecastbench-single_question", name="forecastbench_single_questions_human_2024-07-21")

License and Attribution

This dataset is released under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0).

It is based on the original ForecastBench dataset, which is also licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

If you use this dataset, please cite the original ForecastBench project and provide appropriate attribution.

Citation

@inproceedings{karger2025forecastbench,
      title={ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities},
      author={Ezra Karger and Houtan Bastani and Chen Yueh-Han and Zachary Jacobs and Danny Halawi and Fred Zhang and Philip E. Tetlock},
      year={2025},
      booktitle={International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)},
      url={https://iclr.cc/virtual/2025/poster/28507}
}

:contentReference[oaicite:21]{index=21}

---

:contentReference[oaicite:23]{index=23} :contentReference[oaicite:26]{index=26}:contentReference[oaicite:28]{index=28}
::contentReference[oaicite:29]{index=29}

Downloads last month: 113

Size of downloaded dataset files:

1.52 MB

Size of the auto-converted Parquet files:

422 kB

Number of rows:

902