id
string | question
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18664
|
Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2031?
|
The Metaculus community has projected the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 (Unemployed and looking for work) unemployment rate for the US at around 3% through 2027.
- [What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following year?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14064/us-annual-average-u-3-unemployment-rate/) by RyanBeck
Presumably, if some new data emerged indicating a shock to the labor markets, the Metaculus community would reassess their forecasts and possibly increase the percentage.
What percentage point might be considered a shock to the labor market? In December, 2018, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Jgalt asked if the US unemployment rate would reach 10%. This question resolved “Yes” at 14.7% in April 2020.
- [Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/) by Jgalt
Using Jgalt’s criteria, a US unemployment rate of 10% or higher could be viewed as evidence of a shock to the labor markets.
This question asks if the US will reach 10% unemployment (seasonally adjusted) at any point before January 1st 2031.
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
20781
|
Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
|
Since Elon Musk concluded his purchase of Twitter on [October 22nd, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), the company (now rebranded to "X") has had its fair share of scandals, such as the [removal](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/20/23690820/twitter-verified-blue-checkmark-legacy-elon-musk) of blue checkmarks from legacy users and [ad boycotts](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/29/23981928/elon-musk-ad-boycott-go-fuck-yourself-destroy-x) that have significantly hurt the company financially.
Furthermore, in November 2022, Musk [told](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/) his employees that bankruptcy is not out of the question. Still, Musk has [mentioned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024) ambitious plans for turning X into more than just a social media app; he also aims for it to be a financial app, with updates expected in 2024. Musk [remarked](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024), "You won’t need a bank account... it would blow my mind if we don’t have that rolled out by the end of next year."
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
26335
|
Will England build at least 1.5 million new homes over the current parliamentary term?
|
The UK Labour Party set a target of "1.5 million new homes
over the next parliament" in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=36) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.
Housing policy in the UK (which includes house building) is a [devolved matter](https://fullfact.org/economy/house-building-levels-PMQs/) in the UK, meaning the national governments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland set their own policies separately from the government in Westminster. The Labour manifesto for 2024 has the sentence "Labour will get Britain
building again, creating jobs across England, with 1.5 million new homes
over the next parliament.", which suggests the 1.5 million goal is for England only.
For more information please see: [The new Labour government plans to build 1.5 million homes – here’s what’s needed to make it happen](https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/the-new-labour-government-plans-to-build-15-million-homes--heres-whats-needed-to-make-it-happen/)
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
4061
|
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
|
In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled ["The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good."](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.
Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
22150
|
Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?
|
In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.
Comparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).
In contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html).
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
7481
|
Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?
|
The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))), the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
3812
|
Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?
|
The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.
Franchises that already are at the number 2: "Half Life 2", "Portal 2",
"Left 4 Dead 2", "Team Fortress 2" and "Dota 2".
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
18092
|
Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?
|
*The Kingkiller Chronicle* and *A Song of Ice and Fire* are considered two of the [best epic fantasy fiction series](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/50.The_Best_Epic_Fantasy_fiction_) of all time.
The most recent books in each series were published in 2011, leaving their fans expecting new volume (or news of it) for over 12 years.
As of July 2023 [neither](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2023/05/22/a-new-patrick-rothfuss-kingkiller-chronicles-book--is-coming-out-this-year/?sh=2443fa0e1561) George R.R. Martin's "[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter)" nor Patrick Rothfuss's "[The Doors of Stone](https://kingkiller.fandom.com/wiki/The_Doors_of_Stone)" have an official publication date, despite many tentative deadlines the authors have given during the years.
Who will publish first?
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
16469
|
Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's "Spare" within a year after its publication?
|
Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children’s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.
Prince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife’s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.
Both Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.
This question asks whether Markle’s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry’s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children’s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
8403
|
By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?
|
Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.
Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):
>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
13924
|
Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?
|
Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.
After the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.
The Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.
[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),
> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.
> ...
> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
4849
|
Will any science fiction literature originally written in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?
|
Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a "phantom genre."
The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.
(EN ESPAÑOL:)
***¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?***
España tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».
El público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
8315
|
Will the next James Bond be female?
|
James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.
It is widely understood that *No Time To Die* will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:
* ["I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there," - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/)
* ["The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/)
However, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
8805
|
Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?
|
In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.
The Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.
Are we on a road to a Star Trek Future?
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
6903
|
Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?
|
Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:
> Just wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men’s and women’s tennis to be united and come together as one?
As part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked "Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?". The answer given was "No".
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
6973
|
Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6" (or higher) before 2030?
|
[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world.
Whilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised "beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!". We interpret that to mean 2030.
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
21829
|
Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?
|
The Cy Young Award is the most prestigious award exclusively available to pitchers in Major League Baseball.
Among the various types of throws a pitcher can make is the fastball. Its velocity is correlated with pitcher success as measured by strikeout rate. Pitchers who can throw at exceptional speeds are known as "fireballers" or "flamethrowers"; players whose throws go slower have to rely more on locating their pitches, changing speeds, and using breaking balls. Fastball velocity has been steadily rising throughout the 2010s.
Recent Cy Young Award winners who would trigger positive resolution are [Rick Porcello (2016 AL, 90.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rick-porcello-519144?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb), [Dallas Keuchel (2015 AL, 89.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb). R.A. Dickey (2012 NL), and Brandon Webb (2006).
For perspective, other soft-tossers who have successful seasons are Clayton Kershaw (2023, 90.7 mph, 10th percentile in MLB) and Hyun Jin Ryu (2019, 90.5 mph, 14th percentile). To illustrate the league-wide increase in fastball velocity, Rick Porcello's was in the 21st percentile in 2016 (90.9 mph) and Dallas Keuchel was in the 15th percentile in 2015 (89.9 mph).
Moreover, there has been an "epidemic" of pitcher arm injuries in Major League Baseball. The most common injury is a tear of the elbow's ulnar collateral ligament; recovery from the surgery to fix it usually takes more than a year. [Many observers](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39900377/mlb-pitching-injuries-tommy-john-issue-shane-bieber-spencer-strider-eury-perez) attribute the injuries to harder and maximum-effort throwing, even though team managers restrict the amount of competitive innings their pitchers throw.
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
18673
|
Will a fourth manufacturer enter the NASCAR Cup Series before 2030?
|
Ever since [Dodge left the NASCAR Cup Series after the 2012 season](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a18744961/why-dodge-pulled-the-plug-on-its-nascar-program/), only three manufacturers have remained in the series: Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota. [Speculation has abounded](https://www.jayski.com/2020/10/01/honda-not-currently-interested-in-coming-to-nascar/) [for many years](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/a30351017/next-gen-what-we-know-about-nascars-new-car/) that a new manufacturer will join the series, [or that Dodge will return](https://twitter.com/A_S12/status/1579650835084369921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579650835084369921%7Ctwgr%5E7833c022a2de9318836a1b21aca8b43ff232c7de%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportscasting.com%2Fdodge-reportedly-has-cooled-on-nascar-return-but-does-it-matter%2F).
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
6197
|
Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?
|
Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.
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metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
7072
|
Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?
|
metaculus
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
|
1399
|
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
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Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro running for his third term in office (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-clinches-nomination-national-election-third-term/" target="_blank">CBS</a>). The most recent presidential election in 2018 was widely considered illegitimate due to many alleged irregularities and was boycotted by both the main opposition coalition and many voters (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/5/21/venezuelas-maduro-wins-presidential-vote-boycotted-by-opposition" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/20/americas/venezuela-elections/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>). Observers are concerned about this election as well, as human rights groups allege that the current government has escalated repression in the leadup to the election, including the arrests of prominent members of civil society and the expulsion of members of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/could-be-last-shot-restore-democracy-venezuela" target="_blank">CSIS</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-repression-maduro-machado-35d063ba9ba3e08399c02cb572d78e5b" target="_blank">AP News</a>). If re-elected, Maduro’s term would begin on 10 January 2025 (<a href="https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-02-07/venezuelas-ruling-party-is-preparing-this-years-electoral-calendar-to-win-the-presidency-by-hook-or-by-crook.html" target="_blank">El País</a>).
<div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>For the purposes of this question, Nicolás Maduro is currently the President of Venezuela, despite many countries not viewing his election as legitimate. Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless Maduro voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President instead before 11 January 2025, even if Maduro is not physically in the country. Any temporary exercise of the President’s duties by others (e.g., in the case of illness) will not affect resolution.</div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1363
|
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
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The chief of Myanmar’s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-junta-promises-elections-by-2023/a-58720116" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>). However, the junta extended the state of emergency for six months in February 2023 and again in July 2023, delaying elections beyond 2023 (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/myanmar-military-state-of-emergency-extend-c860a06985f42265088b53c0ea80029e" target="_blank">AP News</a>). Officials have stated that the election may not occur until a nationwide census is completed in 2024 (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-02/myanmar-census-will-increase-surveillance-of-junta-opponents/102923250" target="_blank">ABC Australia</a>).
<div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading: </b></div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/myanmars-precipice-stalemate-and-internal-strife-compelling-military-toward-election" target="_blank">Myanmar's Precipice: The Stalemate and Internal Strife Compelling the Military toward an Election</a> (Center for Strategic and International Studies) </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/census-10242023154556.html" target="_blank">Pilot opposition suggests no meaningful census for Myanmar polls</a> (Radio Free Asia)</li>
</ul><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>This question will only resolve once voting has begun for a nationwide general election (including early voting) or the 1 July 2025 deadline has passed. It will not resolve on an official announcement of an election date. This question will resolve as "yes" if election voting occurs anywhere in the country, even if voting is canceled in some locations.</div><div><br></div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1413
|
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
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In March 2024, Vladimir Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-vote-starts-final-day-with-accusations-kyiv-sabotage-2024-03-17/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). This comes after Putin signed into law in 2021 a change to the Russian constitution that reset his term limits, allowing him to run in 2024 and possibly 2030 (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vladimir-putin-president-russia-signs-law-allowing-2-more-presidential-terms/" target="_blank">CBS</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-signs-law-allows-2-more-terms-d9acdada71b75c3daeafb389782fed4b" target="_blank">AP News</a>). However, the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economic problems, and domestic instability remains to be seen (<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/" target="_blank">Atlantic Council</a>, <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/putin-and-russias-future" target="_blank">Wilson Center</a>).
<div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news media reports.</div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1290
|
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
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The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (“JCPOA”, or “Iran nuclear deal”) is an agreement signed in 2015 by Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council–China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States–plus Germany) that lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">CFR</a>).
<div><br></div><div>After the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, Iran breached multiple limits set by the agreement (<a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/restoring-jcpoas-nuclear-limits" target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>). The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds force, prompted Iran to further reduce compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/05/793814276/iran-abandons-nuclear-deal-limitations-in-wake-of-soleimani-killing" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/05/iran-abandons-nuclear-deal-killing-soleimani-094197" target="_blank">Politico</a>). While Iran has not officially withdrawn from the JCPOA, it has stopped the implementation of its nuclear-related commitments and significantly limited monitoring of its nuclear-related facilities (<a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/06/gov2023-24.pdf" target="_blank">IAEA GOV/2023/24</a>). The United States and Iran had been in discussions to restore both parties to full compliance with the deal, but negotiations appear to have stalled (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/what-exactly-happened-to-the-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-says-no-nuclear-deal-on-table-with-iran/7158920.html" target="_blank">VOA</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div> This question will be resolved using news media reports and announcements from the Iranian government that Iran is withdrawing from the JCPOA. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024 and indicate that Iran is leaving the JCPOA, not just ignoring limits or commitments under the deal. Leaving the JCPOA as part of signing a new nuclear deal with countries party to the JCPOA will <b>not</b> count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/forecasting-iran-nuclear-development" target="_blank">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank">issue reports</a>, and <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Nuclear%20Program" target="_blank">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1285
|
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
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The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or “JCPOA”) includes a “snapback” provision which enables a participant state to initiate a process that would reimpose the UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted as part of that agreement (<a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/snapback-sanctions-iran-more-bark-bite" target="_blank">Washington Institute</a>, <a href="https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/policy-briefs/trigger-warning-consequences-snapping-back-sanctions-iran" target="_blank">Iran Watch</a>). The Trump administration tried to initiate this process in 2020, but the effort was rejected by other signatories because the U.S. had withdrawn from the agreement (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-officially-moves-to-trigger-sanctions-snapback-against-iran/2020/08/20/3a9e6148-e317-11ea-ade1-28daf1a5e919_story.html" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53912771" target="_blank">BBC</a>).
<div><br></div><div>As part of an attempt to revive the nuclear deal, the Biden administration rescinded that request in 2021 (<a href="https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2021/apr/02/new-talks-timeline-diplomacy-under-biden" target="_blank">U.S. Institute for Peace</a>). However, recent developments in Iran’s nuclear weapons program, including the discovery of highly enriched uranium at an Iranian facility in February, has brought the debate over “snapback” sanctions back to the forefront of the policy discussion (<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753" target="_blank">NBC News</a>, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/63e3c340-0876-4146-abe5-be8599b4553c" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/smoldering-iran-nuclear-crisis-risks-catching-fire-2023-05-05/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). </div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div> The question will resolve as “Yes” if one of the JCPOA participants initiates the snapback process by filing a letter with the U.N. Security Council, charging Iran with significant non-performance of commitments (see <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf" target="_blank">paragraphs 36 and 37 of the JCPOA</a>). Letters to the U.N. Security Council regarding Iran can be found here. Current JCPOA participants include: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, and Iran. The U.S. is no longer considered a participant because it withdrew from the agreement in 2018. </div><div><br></div><div><b>Additional Reading:</b></div><ul>
<li>An example letter imposing snapback sanctions is <a href="https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2020_921.pdf" target="_blank">the one the U.S. submitted to the U.N. Security Council in September 2020</a>. However, it would not have counted because the U.S. was not a participant to the JCPOA at that time and the letter did not begin the snapback process.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">What is the Iran Nuclear Deal</a> (CFR)</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20200819-what-is-snapback-us-iran-sanctions-move-explained" target="_blank">What is snapback? US Iran Sanctions Move Explained</a> (France 24)</li>
</ul><div><br></div><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/forecasting-iran-nuclear-development" target="_blank">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank">issue reports</a>, and <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Nuclear%20Program" target="_blank">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1286
|
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
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<p>Uranium is typically enriched to 90% U-235 or higher (commonly called "weapon-grade uranium") for use in nuclear weapons (<a href="https://armscontrolcenter.org/uranium-enrichment-for-peace-or-for-weapons/" target="_blank">Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation</a>, <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/weapon-materials-basics" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>). Iran promised to curtail uranium enrichment to less than 4% as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or “JCPOA”), but it stepped back from these commitments in retaliation for attacks on Iranian leaders and the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Council on Foreign Relations</a>, <a href="https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/may/03/timeline-iran%E2%80%99s-nuclear-program-2018" target="_blank">U.S. Institute of Peace</a>). Following the U.S.' withdrawal, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, the European Union, and Iran remained participants in the JCPOA. </p><p>Although Iran has increasingly limited monitoring and verification of its nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to report on its JCPOA commitments (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/exclusive-iran-restricts-iaea-access-main-enrichment-plant-after-attack-2021-07-01/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/10/un-agency-iran-nuclear-probe-00066350" target="_blank">Politico</a>). In February of 2023, it reported that it had found particles containing up to 83.7% enriched uranium (<a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/03/gov2023-8.pdf" target="_blank">IAEA</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753" target="_blank">NBC</a>).
</p><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>The question will be resolved based on IAEA reports about Iran’s nuclear program, which are posted <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran/iaea-and-iran-iaea-board-reports" target="_blank">here</a>. The IAEA report must indicate that the IAEA found uranium particles containing 90% or more U-235 at an Iranian nuclear facility. </div><p></p><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Nuclear Progress.” For more, see <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/forecasting-iran-nuclear-development" target="_blank">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank">issue reports</a>, and <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Nuclear%20Program" target="_blank">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1342
|
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
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The internationally-recognized government of Yemen has been engaged in conflict with rebels from the Houthi movement since 2014 (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/war-yemen" target="_blank">CFR</a>). The government of Yemen is supported by a Saudi-backed military coalition, while the Houthi movement has close ties to Iran and Hezbollah (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/yemen-crisis" target="_blank">CFR</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/who-are-the-houthis-and-why-are-we-at-war-with-them/" target="_blank">Brookings</a>).
<div><br></div><div>In April 2022, the United Nations negotiated a ceasefire between the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/world/middleeast/yemen-cease-fire.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a>). The ceasefire was originally intended to last two months, but was extended twice before being allowed to lapse in October 2022 (<a href="https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign-and-security-policy/can-the-third-time-be-the-charm-for-yemen-6125/" target="_blank">IPS Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-houthis-after-the-yemeni-cease-fire/" target="_blank">Brookings</a>). Following Hamas’ October 2023 attack, there are now concerns that the war between Hamas and Israel could push the Houthis closer to Iran and away from a new ceasefire agreement with the Saudi-backed government of Yemen (<a href="https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/why-hamas-israel-war-can-be-a-turning-point-for-yemens-houthis-149895" target="_blank">ISPI</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved using credible, open source reports that Yemen and the Houthi movement have signed a ceasefire. For the question to resolve “yes”, the ceasefire must be signed on or before 31 December 2024, last at least six months, and still be in effect on 31 December 2024. If a ceasefire is agreed upon, this question will be resolved either on 1 January 2025 or six months after the agreement is reached, whichever is later. A ceasefire originally intended to last less than six months but is extended to last longer than six months and lasts through the end of 2024 will still count towards resolution. </div><div><br></div><div><i>This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/iran-influence-vnsa" target="_blank">INFER's explainer</a>, <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank">issue reports</a>, and <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/challenges/53-iran-threats-influence?tags=Iran%20Influence%20on%20VNSAs" target="_blank">other questions in this decomposition</a>.</i></div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1451
|
Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?
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The South China Sea is one of the most geopolitically contentious regions in the world, with overlapping territorial claims from several nations, including China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and Vietnam (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea" target="_blank">CFR</a>). The various islands, reefs, and shoals in the South China Sea (such as the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal) are valuable not only for their strategic military positioning but also for their potential economic benefits, particularly in terms of fishing rights, undersea natural resources, and control of vital maritime trade routes (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/maritime-chessboard-the-geopolitical-dynamics-of-the-south-china-sea/" target="_blank">Geopolitical Monitor</a>). China has been especially assertive in the region, using both official Coast Guard and Navy ships, as well as unofficial maritime militias, to enforce its claims and confront other nations’ ships in the South China Sea (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-us-sea-clash-d08f4532c2a66047c6fa2833b76d7773" target="_blank">AP News</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/13/china-maritime-militia-explainer-south-china-sea-scarborough-shoal" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>).
<div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as “Yes” if open-source news reports, official statements from the Chinese government, or statements from governments that also dispute the maritime features (such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, or Taiwan) indicate that the China Coast Guard or People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has attempted to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025. Attempts by unofficial or quasi-official Chinese ships (i.e., China’s “maritime militia”) will not count toward resolution.</div><div><br></div><div>An “attempt to anchor” is defined as any clear action to position or moor a vessel at or near the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea, even if such an attempt is disrupted or unsuccessful. Routine patrols or transits that do not involve an effort to anchor will not count toward resolution.</div><div><br></div><div>Disputed features in the South China Sea include, but are not limited to, the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal (<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10607" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>).</div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1462
|
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
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The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a multi-ethnic coalition primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, established in 2015 with U.S. support to combat ISIS. The SDF has maintained control over key regions in northeastern Syria, including Manbij, Raqqa, and parts of Deir ez-Zor.
<div><br></div><div>However, the SDF faces numerous challenges that threaten its stability and territorial integrity. In recent years, the SDF has dealt with increasing pressure from various fronts, including Turkish military operations aimed at curbing Kurdish autonomy, ongoing conflicts with remnants of ISIS, and tensions with the Syrian government. The SDF's governance model has been challenged by internal strife, particularly in areas with significant Arab populations, which have led to clashes and accusations of marginalization (<a href="https://ecfr.eu/special/mena-armed-groups/syrian-democratic-forces-syria/" target="_blank">ECFR</a>).</div><div><br></div><div>Recent reports indicate that fighting erupted between the SDF and Arab tribal groups in Deir ez-Zor after the SDF apprehended a local leader, resulting in casualties and displacement (<a href="https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2023-10/syria-60.php" target="_blank">Security Council Report</a>). Additionally, as U.S. support has waned under changing political administrations, the SDF's vulnerability to external threats has increased (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war" target="_blank">CFR</a>). Given these factors, there is growing concern about the SDF's ability to maintain control over its territories amidst external pressures and internal divisions.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria:</b></div><div>This question will resolve as "Yes" if credible news sources or international organizations report the SDF has experienced any of the following:</div><ul>
<li>
<b>Collapsed: </b>This would be evidenced by reports from SDF leadership that the SDF has disbanded or that they can no longer function as a cohesive military or administrative entity.</li>
<li>
<b>Fragmented: </b>This would be evidenced by reports of significant divisions within the SDF leading to splinter groups that operate independently or engage in conflict with each other.</li>
<li>
<b>Lost Control Over Key Territories: </b>Reports need to indicate that Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor are no longer under effective SDF governance. Indicators of loss of control may include significant armed conflict resulting in the SDF being unable to maintain security or governance in these areas; withdrawal of SDF forces due to overwhelming opposition; and the emergence of rival administrations or armed groups asserting control over these territories, leading to a breakdown in SDF-led governance structures. </li>
</ul><div><br></div><div>The question will resolve as "No" if none of these events occur before 1 October 2026.</div><div><br></div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
1432
|
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
|
Currently, China’s only military base in Africa is in Djibouti, for which construction was confirmed to begin in February 2016 (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2016/02/confirmed-construction-begins-on-chinas-first-overseas-military-base-in-djibouti/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). Since the establishment of its military base in Djibouti in 2017, China has shown interest in expanding its military presence in Africa, with significant investments in commercial ports and infrastructure across the continent (<a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/01/china-eyeing-second-military-base-africa" target="_blank">USIP</a>, <a href="https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/chinas-maritime-expansion-an-emerging-security-dilemma/" target="_blank">Geopolitical Monitor</a>).
<div><br></div><div>In recent years, U.S. intelligence reports have indicated that China is considering establishing a military base in Equatorial Guinea, possibly in Bata, which is already home to a Chinese-built deep-water commercial port (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-first-military-base-on-africas-atlantic-coast-u-s-intelligence-finds-11638726327" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2969935/general-says-china-is-seeking-a-naval-base-in-west-africa/" target="_blank">U.S. Department of Defense</a>). However, while China has continued to invest heavily in trade and infrastructure projects in the country, plans for such a base have not been confirmed (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/china-and-equatorial-guinea-why-their-new-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-matters/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03/china-pla-navy-base-west-africa-atlantic-equatorial-guinea/" target="_blank">Foreign Policy</a>). More recent U.S. government reports have indicated that China may be pursuing a military base in neighboring Gabon (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/u-s-china-tensions-have-a-new-front-a-naval-base-in-africa-616e9e77" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-continues-its-search-for-a-maritime-military-presence-in-west-africa/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). Other possible locations include Angola, Namibia, Kenya, and Tanzania (<a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/considerations-prospective-chinese-naval-base-africa/" target="_blank">Africa Center</a>, <a href="https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001487345/pentagon-jittery-over-chinas-military-ambitions-in-kenya" target="_blank">The Standard</a>, <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/07/31/chinese-military-naval-bases-in-africa-and-us-indian-naval-influence-around-the-world/" target="_blank">Modern Diplomacy</a>). </div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved using open-source news reports and/or official government statements indicating that a groundbreaking ceremony has taken place or that construction has begun on a military facility for use by the People’s Liberation Army in an African country other than Djibouti. </div><div><br></div><div>Additionally, the following scenarios <b>will</b> count towards resolution: </div><ul>
<li>The expansion, conversion, or transfer of an existing port or military facility to allow for use by the People’s Liberation Army, whether for their exclusive use or dual use.</li>
<li>Reports that such a facility has been established or is operational, with no previous confirmation of an agreement or construction. </li>
</ul><div><br></div><div>The following scenarios <b>will NOT</b> count towards resolution:</div><ul>
<li>Reports that negotiations are underway or that an agreement has been reached. </li>
<li>Facilities used by Chinese personnel on UN peacekeeping missions will not count towards resolution.</li>
<li>Reports that construction is underway on a suspected Chinese overseas military facility <b>will not</b> count unless or until such a facility is confirmed by statements from the Chinese or the relevant African country’s government. </li>
</ul><div><br></div><div>Additionally, for the purposes of this question:</div><ul>
<li>Chinese officials may use the terms “logistical” or “support” facility rather than a “military base”, but any facility constructed for use by the People’s Liberation Army will be considered a military base.</li>
<li>An “African country” includes African island nations (e.g., Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Madagascar, etc.).</li>
</ul>
|
infer
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1401
|
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
|
Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html" target="_blank">Network World</a>, <a href="https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html" target="_blank">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world’s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards Open RAN efforts in the past (<a href="https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says" target="_blank">Light Reading</a>, <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/" target="_blank">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support Open RAN were forthcoming (<a href="https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/" target="_blank">Telecom TV</a>).
<div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Huawei sells or announces a commercial Open RAN equipment offering before 1 January 2027. Announcements about research plans or trials of Open RAN equipment will not count.</div>
|
infer
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1364
|
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
|
<a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/lab/microsoft-research-asia/overview/" target="_blank">Microsoft Research Lab Asia</a> (MSR Asia), is the division of Microsoft Research based in China and focuses its research on artificial intelligence, computer vision, and other critical technologies. In June 2023, the Financial Times reported that Microsoft was moving some of its top AI experts from MSR Asia to a new research lab in Vancouver that would be organizationally aligned with MSR Asia (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d21d2f85-7531-4536-bcce-8ca38620fe55" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>). This followed a decision in May by Microsoft-owned LinkedIn to shut down InCareer, the stripped-down version of the LinkedIn app that remained in China after LinkedIn decided to pull out of the country in 2021 (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/linkedin-cut-716-jobs-phase-out-china-local-jobs-app-2023-05-09/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). However, Peter Lee, the head of Microsoft Research, has denied claims that Microsoft is planning to close their lab in China saying, “There has been no discussion or advocacy to close Microsoft Research Asia, and we look forward to continuing our research agenda” (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/technology/microsoft-china-ai-lab.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a>).
<div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as "Yes" if Microsoft announces in a press release, statement by Microsoft executives, or other official communication that it is closing Microsoft Research Asia or moving the research lab to another country. The announcement must be made on or before 31 December 2024, but the closure or relocation does not need to be effected by that date. The relocation of some MSR Asia staff without the closing of offices or cessation of operations in China will not be sufficient for resolution.</div><div><br></div>
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infer
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1385
|
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
|
Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/what-is-open-ran.html" target="_blank">Network World</a>, <a href="https://www.juniper.net/us/en/research-topics/what-is-open-ran.html" target="_blank">Juniper Networks</a>). Huawei, the world’s leading 5G equipment manufacturer, has expressed skepticism towards open RAN efforts in the past (<a href="https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/huawei-gives-another-thumbs-down-to-open-ran-or-so-it-says" target="_blank">Light Reading</a>, <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-just-playing-poker-with-the-o-ran-alliance-and-policymakers/" target="_blank">Strand Consult</a>). In February 2024, Huawei dismissed speculation that plans to support open RAN were forthcoming (<a href="https://www.telecomtv.com/content/open-ran/huawei-denies-open-ran-support-speculation-49795/" target="_blank">Telecom TV</a>).
<div><br></div><div>The <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/about" target="_blank">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization made up of mobile network operators, vendors, and academic and research institutions that is working to move the industry towards open RAN architecture. Huawei is not a member of O-RAN, despite the fact that rival telecom equipment manufacturers Nokia, Ericsson, and ZTE, as well as China’s major mobile network operators are all members of the Alliance (<a href="https://www.o-ran.org/membership" target="_blank">O-RAN Membership</a>). Some view O-RAN as a U.S.-backed effort to tackle Huawei’s dominance in the industry but others have noted that Chinese influence within O-RAN may scupper these efforts (<a href="https://www.gizchina.com/2024/03/19/breaking-down-operation-o-ran-how-the-us-aims-to-level-the-playing-field-against-huawei/" target="_blank">GizChina</a>, <a href="https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220113PD207/5g-o-ran-china-telecom-service_-infrastructure.html" target="_blank">DigiTimes</a>, <a href="https://ecipe.org/blog/chinas-participation-o-ran/" target="_blank">ECIPE</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Huawei or the O-RAN Alliance announce a collaboration between them on or before 1 October 2025. Such a collaboration might include, but is not limited to, Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance, testing or developing equipment with O-RAN standards, or making financial or resource commitments. Examples of past announcements of other organizations collaborating with O-RAN include O-RAN’s collaborations with <a href="https://www.atis.org/press-releases/atis-and-o-ran-alliance-broaden-cooperative-efforts/" target="_blank">ATIS</a>, <a href="https://www.smallcellforum.org/press-releases/scf-and-oran-alliance/" target="_blank">SCF</a>, and the <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200225005180/en/The-O-RAN-Alliance-and-the-Telecom-Infra-Project-TIP-Reach-New-Level-of-Collaboration-for-Open-Radio-Access-Networks" target="_blank">Telecom Infra Project</a>. Statements by Huawei that they intend to explore open RAN projects unrelated to the O-RAN Alliance will not count towards resolution.</div><div><br></div>
|
infer
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1373
|
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
|
<p>Many building blocks are needed to support life, including water, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen gas (<a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/life-sparking-gas-strengthens-evidence-that-enceladus-a-moon-of-saturn-could-be-habitable-180983445/" target="_blank">Smithsonian Magazine</a>). To be considered “potentially habitable”, a planet must be up to 2.5 times the size of the Earth or up to 10 times Earth’s mass and orbit the right distance from its star for liquid water to possibly be present (<a href="https://phl.upr.edu/hwc" target="_blank">Planetary Habitability Laboratory</a>).
</p><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>As of 1 February 2024, the <a href="https://phl.upr.edu/hwc" target="_blank">Habitable Worlds Catalog</a> identified 69 potentially habitable worlds out of over five thousand known exoplanets, with five of them added to the list in 2023. This question will be resolved as “Yes” if the Habitable Worlds Catalog adds 5 or more new potentially habitable worlds to the list (i.e., the sum of their conservative and optimistic samples) discovered on or before 31 December 2024.</div>
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infer
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1386
|
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
|
The <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/about" target="_blank">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization that creates standards for telecommunication technology to ensure that mobile network telecommunications equipment operate within an open architecture and are interoperable between vendors. One way that manufacturers can show that a product complies with O-RAN standards is by obtaining an <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program" target="_blank">O-RAN Certificate</a> from one of O-RAN’s Open Testing and Integration Centres (OTIC). In August 2023, O-RAN announced the opening of four new OTICs in the U.S. (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230817436719/en/O-RAN-ALLIANCE-Welcomes-Four-New-OTICs-In-North-America" target="_blank">Business Wire</a>). However, no companies have received certificates from an OTIC in the U.S. to date.<br><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved using the <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#certification-badging-program" target="_blank">O-RAN Certification and Badging Catalogue</a>. To count towards resolution, the catalog entry must show the following:</div><ul>
<li>“Date of issued certificate” must be on or after 2024-04-01 and on or before 2025-03-31</li>
<li>“Type” must be “Certificate”</li>
<li>“OTIC name” must be any of the North American OTICs, which are listed <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#otics-list" target="_blank">here</a>
</li>
</ul><div>In the event that the question is not resolved before the question closes for forecasting, the INFER team will wait until late April to resolve this question to allow for delays in updating the catalog. Note that the question will be resolved as of the “Date of issued certificate” listed in the catalog.</div><div><br></div>
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infer
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1414
|
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
|
Market capitalization (or “market cap”) is a way of measuring the size of a company by calculating the total value of a company’s shares on the open market (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/market-cap" target="_blank">Fidelity</a>). A global ranking of companies by market capitalization is available on <a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com" target="_blank">CompaniesMarketCap</a>.
<div><br></div><div>Nvidia has become an essential player in artificial intelligence, as the technologies the company produces underpin many of the major advancements and applications of AI (<a href="https://www.plus500.com/en/instruments/nvda/nvidia-artificial-intelligence-contributions~2" target="_blank">Plus500</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2023/03/29/why-nvidia-matters-for-the-future-of-ai/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). The demand for AI chips has skyrocketed Nvidia’s value in recent months, leading it to briefly become the world’s largest company by market cap in June 2024, before falling back to third behind Microsoft and Apple (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/nvidia-passes-microsoft-in-market-cap-is-most-valuable-public-company.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/03/nvidia-just-became-the-largest-company-on-the-stoc/" target="_blank">The Motley Fool</a>). </div><div><br></div><div>Many expect the value of Nvidia to continue to rise, with some predicting market caps as high as $5 trillion by 2026 or $10 trillion by 2030 (<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/19/prediction-nvidia-five-trillion-generative-ai/" target="_blank">The Motley Fool</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkindig/2024/06/07/prediction-nvidia-stock-will-reach-10-trillion-market-cap-by-2030/" target="_blank">Forbes</a>). However, others have suggested that we may be in an AI bubble and that its costs and unclear value could cause Nvidia’s value to fall back to earth (<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-nvidia-investors-can-learn-from-the-roaring-1920s-and-the-radio-bubble-206aaf79" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-ai-stocks-bubble-james-ferguson-intel-cisco-chatgpt-2024-7" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>).</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved by comparing market capitalizations on <a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com" target="_blank">CompaniesMarketCap</a> on 31 May 2025. Note that 31 May 2025 is a Saturday, so market caps will be based on the end-of-day stock prices on 30 May 2025.</div>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
1461
|
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
|
For the purposes of this question, an economic collapse is defined as ANY one of these scenarios occurring:
<ul>
<li>Egypt’s main stock market index, the EGX 30, decreases in value by at least 30% over one month.</li>
<li>Egypt’s annual headline inflation rate reaches 50%.</li>
<li>Egypt enters into default on its external debts.</li>
</ul><div><br></div><div>Egypt is facing significant economic challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation. As of August 2024, the annual headline inflation rate rose to 26.2%, following a peak of 38% in September 2023 (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/inflation-cpi" target="_blank">Trading Economics</a>). The Egyptian pound has lost about 50% of its value over the past two years, contributing to severe cost-of-living increases. (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/05/the-egyptian-pound-is-amongst-the-worst-performing-currencies-in-2023.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). </div><div><br></div><div>The EGX 30, Egypt's primary stock market index, has shown volatility, with analysts warning that continued instability could lead to sharp declines. Additionally, Egypt has quadrupled its external debt since 2015, and is equivalent to about 43% of GDP (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-foreign-debt-rises-35-billion-last-quarter-2023-2024-05-09/#:~:text=Total%20foreign%20debt%20rose%20to,and%20support%20an%20overvalued%20currency." target="_blank">Reuters</a>). These factors raise concerns about the potential for an economic collapse if significant adverse developments occur.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Resolution Criteria: </b></div><div>This question will be resolved “Yes” if any of the following criteria are met:</div><ul>
<li>
<b>EGX 30 decline of at least 30% over one month: </b>The closing price of the <a href="https://www.egx.com.eg/en/Indices.aspx" target="_blank">EGX 30</a> on the last trading day of the month is at least 30% lower than its price on the last closing day of the previous month. More historical data on the EGX 30’s prices is available on <a href="https://www.investing.com/indices/egx30-historical-data" target="_blank">Investing.com</a>.</li>
<li>
<b>Egypt’s inflation reaches 50%: </b>Egypt’s annual headline urban inflation rate (“Headline (y/y)”) for any given month is at least 50%, as reported by the <a href="https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates" target="_blank">Central Bank of Egypt</a>. Historical data is available <a href="https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates/historical-data" target="_blank">here</a>. </li>
<li>
<b>Egypt defaults on external debts: </b>Credible financial news sources or international financial institutions (such as the IMF, World Bank, or major credit rating agencies) report that the country’s government has entered a form of sovereign default, such as by missing a payment on external debt obligations and not making the payment within an applicable grace period or by announcing a moratorium on external debt payments. A default will be considered to have occurred at the earliest instance reported by a major financial news source or institution.</li>
</ul>
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infer
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xc7599c7b33b64f891750b57439384d163f547600fed4a6007918751f8f37740d
|
No Ethereum all time high in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) never reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 according to Binance between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.
|
polymarket
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We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0x1070c27e30447364ed6602778729203d29aaa8860cb0a24779eb3a26f68b245f
|
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?
|
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 6 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x5401278f7f9c9df79552148e2b280dea9ea91431a77c2c46686b8bec598970e7
|
Ethereum all time high in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,868.00 according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xebd09819ef04d3d8c255e4012c96bb7d4e37315d0b96e8d9ec82c1ad010799d4
|
Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price of 15,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.
Note: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Binance (e.g. ETH only hit 10k on other exchanges but 15k on Binance), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x0ebf9290c87facccf4b0d646b175e66cdeddd3d6fc887aee32b88a04e34ce939
|
Tether Insolvent in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
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polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x4a5b5f52c6e7f2af6b06462c92d12ea7bd1662c87be11828da0722ff32373b36
|
Fed rate hike in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between April 25 and December 18, 2024's Fed meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December 18 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x96fa956d781862402d88ed4c35217199ece4f8032fa4d8635f103629e1c493b1
|
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Milady has a higher floor price than Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) for at least 1 continuous hour between May 20 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be Blur's chart for each NFT, specifically the red line for 1d sales, for the dates within this market's range (Milady: https://blur.io/eth/collection/milady, BAYC: https://blur.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub). If Blur becomes unavailable or ceases to report figures, another credible source may be used.
Note: If the 1 hour long period starts at e.g. December 31, 2024 11:20 PM ET it will still count for this market.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x9c66114d2dfe2139325cc7a408a5cd5d2e73b55d919e2141b3a0ed83fc15895d
|
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
|
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for bitcoin BTC-USD between 1 Jan '24 00:00 and 31 Dec '24 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of 100,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the BTC-USD "High" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
To see the "High" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value "H" at the top of the chart.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase BTC-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Note: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Coinbase (e.g. BTC only hit 75k on other exchanges but 100k on Coinbase), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0x9d1f0296f3a016727193d2b45704e0debc3b8048fe0715f8bb1e91550d321872
|
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?
|
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.
For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0xc8f2b2277aa63627071a3f0db8dd70e7fc490219b28f9486bf0bc0c0434f7b77
|
Solana ETF approved in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Solana ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xf808e139238945c244d8d54011908c2856a2a53b51f3c28ffaeb95de48677fae
|
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between Feb 28 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xcd30346281d728bb08a85f4e36adccdd3c443300fa74aaefc7a4ee83744b4f49
|
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if FTX begins customer reimbursements in Q4 2024 (between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If customer reimbursements begin before the start of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", customer reimbursements must actually begin; mere announcements that payouts will begin within this market's timeframe will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FTX and the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x2c2dc19efecfd9943c54e116f3a07f57026d3f38ad7c6e0019c628baceb5bc14
|
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024?
|
This is a market on whether the market capitalization of $USDC (USD Coin) will surpass that of $USDT (Tether) within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.
This market's timeframe spans from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (inclusive).
If, according to the resolution source, $USDC has a greater market cap than $USDT for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the market cap of $USDC is equal to or lower than that of $USDT for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to “No”. This market may only resolve to "No" once the December 31 market cap data is available.
Note that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps.
If the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through January 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xbd3ed58e5472776516683cce181509b05bd07ef687997795d1cfb70fa7c4bc55
|
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of 250,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.
Note: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Binance (e.g. BTC only hit 100k on other exchanges but 250k on Binance), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x4b1741127012a0e4d884c65fbb01628778dc03486dd6c55cefce972950db93a4
|
Doge ETF approved in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x08a5663d450331222bc832c59646bff249671319340cbde738c13f71b9e51c21
|
Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024?
|
This is a market on whether the market capitalization of Ethena's $USDe will surpass that of Circle's $USDC within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethena-usde/historical_data and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.
This market's timeframe spans from April 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (inclusive).
If, according to the resolution source, $USDe has a greater market cap than $USDC for any day within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the market cap of $USDe is equal to or lower than that of $USDC for every day within this market's timeframe, then this market will resolve to “No”. This market may only resolve to "No" once the December 31 market cap data is available.
Note that only the historical data numbers will be used for the comparison of the market caps.
If the URLs linking to CoinGecko's Historical Data change at any point, the new URLs will be used instead of the ones initially listed. If the resolution data for any of the relevant days remains unavailable through January 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, CoinMarketCap historical data will be used instead.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xdf27fa31b9fa64575e07fa5af8cb7ff9a2b4e8bc60ffd116999c5eb8fb57945c
|
Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rege-Jean Page is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x1ab07117f9f698f28490f57754d6fe5309374230c95867a7eba572892a11d710
|
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Inside Out 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross.
In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0xbb9312495200f165c8e5ea714a2286d1a8f840fe1e50d91c7f82cd1762fb2656
|
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cosmo Jarvis is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x87ebcc9f6660a5b9613650c3d91bae01f4503b11eb61a782b993bbc3a5d41b04
|
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Joker: Folie à Deux' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross.
In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x62c1c246437874dc270d9d9019b6228532a394ea2a6ffa36190c7075a2732ae6
|
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross.
In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xf404052387b0612112823ad31ca9572150cce046590c61b6c98792eb7b264ed1
|
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Henry Cavill is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x278914894a4377e6c9aebe8372ce8e797d1c4f0f594d66667d25cfc9ae225a63
|
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an actor other than Aaron Johnson, Henry Cavil, Damson Idris, James Norton, Rege-Jean Page, Cosmo Jarvis, or Tom Hardy is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If no new James Bond actor is announced by the resolution date this market will also resolve to "Yes". Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59
|
James Norton announced as next James Bond?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if James Norton is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xbce0ff6f8ee396ec39e76c8b60d747272e8bf4bd65f31d0e131b64aceb0be3b5
|
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Deadpool 3' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross.
In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xf80032ad5496e997beb357f01e9fe69382d7c755cde2352eba37410db006c21d
|
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Dune: Part 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross.
In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x79f846da98b7a015b9f60e9ac7623bb5abc8f3e20e93da5d5fcc0cf58d5a3fd5
|
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aaron Taylor-Johnson is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x1742f180a7ff24c2a89f3775e8f4243169085b7a25a50f15c76090b816e4c994
|
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Despicable Me 4' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross.
In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x7b33d1d34b1b9414cb9d60d27ac20548b9065f33e61ff3a92ee904c3912b8bc9
|
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Taylor Swift is engaged to be married between February 11 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Taylor Swift or her official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64
|
Will another movie gross most in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows any movie other than 'Deadpool 3', 'Joker: Folie à Deux', 'Dune: Part 2', 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga', 'Despicable Me 4', or 'Inside Out 2' as the film with the highest total gross for the year 2024 once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about movies' domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward the movies' gross.
In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9
|
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Damson Idris is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Barbara Broccoli, EON productions or the James Bond Franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x6036a50f1d17982bd212447da143a527bcb1a35569977c739e334eaaec591751
|
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first decision made by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit results in the reduction of the damages awarded to E. Jean Carroll, totaling $83.3 million in her defamation lawsuit against Donald J. Trump, “E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump” (22-cv-10016), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only the first decision by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit regarding the reduction of the $83.3 million judgment will be considered for the resolution of this market. Subsequent appeals, including those to the Supreme Court, will not affect this market's resolution.
If the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit's first decision results in a new trial, settlement, or any other outcome that does not directly reduce the $83.3 million judgment, this market will resolve to "No".
The market will resolve to "No" if the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit does not issue its first decision regarding the appeal by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the official ruling or documents from the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x0e85e94301db0e38e25f0650ab649c3a4485b5fc9734a8b6abf3d0da0ee6dd55
|
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by his father President Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0x0f99544f8db2651fdafb79636924b4d9ec73c9b61d77a9e56f467c6b0c932c3d
|
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia without interruption from March 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Russia, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0xfad14932325af166b81190e1f3c0d7ed892357551e5a77f064813f2de5a1b40a
|
Canada federal election in 2024?
|
The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, however federal elections have been called early numerous times in Canada's history, most recently in 2021.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to be held in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xe610902a9cbe5a4969466a5b853f9165fa071b9804aa7f71db768db5c757b96b
|
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xdfd4276c3144acea7037bc3c4d9924f8a79de9af98ce7d798b6086ff0c5e7dc0
|
COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency (e.g. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, NIH, etc.) definitively states that the initial COVID-19 virus came from a lab by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xd3328f8684b20c8b4be97ef06d55d9543e2669b0c6d9d9187ea4996c8ac03864
|
TikTok banned in the US in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x296c9bdd15f0d09806f025b146dd14fe27f6ef624b83c5302f47a980669633c0
|
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if founder of Silk Road Ross William Ulbricht, aka Dread Pirate Roberts, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joe Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xd08318327c3e9e9c21841272dfee84da6de9e0b75a41d56a47aca2b34e1c588d
|
Supreme Court vacancy in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between April 7 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xe8e9fd6e57c4121f32009625d40cf99bff88f5219b06282db9bf8db414ba226b
|
Will America ban Zyn in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government bans Zyn nicotine pouches from sale or purchase within the US by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xb36d9c4fb1fac427ee93c27730c7c2b88c8e6000c7ff693bbcab68458b658f6c
|
Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024?
|
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xf4078ddd084c8979c81f1ac4674d5e846b87a13b7f568bdd402296181e83b4d9
|
Will Biden pardon SBF?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Bankman-Fried (SBF) receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xd2d4628c6119f20763ac855b54db1fbb408b518d81bbed249bf5b09fb72f4537
|
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78
|
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0xf5696d8eb7ee5bb4fdd58465f502c8962c8972a4de4d64077662b41e658d2401
|
OpenSea token in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenSea announces a token by December 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET, or to "No" otherwise.
"Announces a token by December 31" means they confirm by December 31 that they will have a token, regardless of when the token actually launches.
The resolution source is OpenSea (https://opensea.io/blog/, https://twitter.com/opensea, etc.).
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xc7aaca62c77ab866abe4e2f39d11b6b7362a274077c5a388c3bd04bda35e0257
|
GPT-5 not announced in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI does NOT announce the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
This market may not resolve to "Yes" until its timeframe has expired and the completion of GPT-5 has not yet been announced.
GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0x715a00736b0e47286256eed499755204dc6750942c262ef79624579b4dfa04a1
|
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Meissner effect claimed in the paper https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999 is replicated by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of the replication(s). This market may only resolve once a definitive consensus is reached.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xa47e90f1232464539a75336de9fa41856285bc2dd5250ee509084ee90cf2d26e
|
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024?
|
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are definitively proven between October 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549
|
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced.
GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x9203518d9e229d65d4222d1a6b4ae99ea167abadcfb3d11bb50603428dfc7554
|
OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that OpenAI has reached a settlement with the New York Times over copyright infringement issues by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xefc3ed55ea013e7f75ad53fa9670d704dba5428417d38a37232092f60ace44fd
|
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g. via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22
|
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are NOT definitively proven in 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
This market may not resolve to 'Yes' until December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET has passed and Satoshi Nakamoto's identity is not definitively proven.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets.. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 1 |
0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1
|
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2023 and/or 2024 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x9fce1292bea6748addd9a96632ab7455f64028671816e964a692686573079574
|
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xad1b0c00056e2f29ac47f2b410a91f2dda57181d5c01257f6efa395089805558
|
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if social media personality and former professional kickboxer Andrew Tate is found guilty in any jurisdiction of any country of any charge related to sex/human trafficking between January 16 and December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xc471a026180a086c0a887e8ba73d8016bc8dbd9539ef85ea199d666f240aca17
|
Iggy Azalea criminal charges in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Australian rapper and model Iggy Azalea is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department.
This market will resolve to "No" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x425e10e5fa4fad85117c3e0f33c098631f3c400154257ccb6411cde7761113da
|
Ansem criminal charges in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ansem (@blknoiz06) is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department.
This market will resolve to "No" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xed3a181bf912941cd49a24094cfba00ba30d3a48afe00cdabf32041324edc83e
|
Is John McAfee alive?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 29 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xc5db10fafffb5283a093c435ce617a61f0127e3a24a57419e7d25550c6b8df38
|
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by North Korea, South Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0x7970aad0f57cc6e4b4227affdb969e8a6db419db839dcf522c451d38175534a3
|
Russian nuke in space in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation places a nuclear weapon in space (an altitude of 50+ miles above sea level) between February 21, 2024, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
0xea27d1fc974b4aa0756d37bb2c72e9e424b74a271e291b195510dc68399e5071
|
Bird flu pandemic in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
polymarket
|
We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'.
| 0 |
meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D
|
What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Amsterdam Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}?
|
The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NOUVELLE AMSTERDAM - Daily from Météo-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D.
|
dbnomics
|
DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on this data will resolve.
| 0 |
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