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"Far more is needed and a crossroads budget where specific plans of action - no return fiscal discipline and economic growth and employment creation action plans - are set out clearly is all that will satisfy the South African public and more important the global investment and grading agencies. In fact one may baptise this budget as the 'great grading prevention budget'."
According to Harmse, Gordhan will have no choice but to keep the budget deficit at a level of 3.8% of gross domestic product (GDP). The 2015 budget forecast a 2.4% economic growth in 2016/2017 with a fiscal deficit on 2.6%.
The medium term expenditure framework (MTEF) adjusted this expectation to 3.3% of GDP. The minster, therefore, will have to increase this benchmark, given the gloomy economic outlook of a possible recession.
The economic growth outlook of a mere 0.4% of GDP growth for 2016/2017 is far from last year’s expectation. In this regard it is expected that the GDP for 2016 will be R300bn less than expected.
Gordhan will also have to keep debt stock as percentage of GDP lower than 44%. Total net loan debt of 43.9% was envisaged in the mini budget. Any level higher will clearly be oil on the fire for grading agencies, in Harmse's view.
At the same time Gordhan will have to increase expenditure by no more than 5.8% as suggested in the mini budget. In the same manner, to keep the budget balance at 3.3% of GDP almost R80bn extra income is needed. The increase in the GDP of 0.4% will only add an additional R6bn to the state revenue.
For Harmse, the quickest and most efficient way to finance the expected income need would be value added taxes (VAT). He said politically this will be unacceptable to labour unions.
"A VAT increase will definitely discriminate against the poor and given the current level of unemployment and poverty in the country one would rather abstain from this source, even though the Davis Tax Committee has indicated that an increase in VAT has merit," said Harmse.
The biggest probability, according to Harmse, will be the raising of income tax brackets with an emphasis on the higher income groups. He also expects a rise in the general fuel levy by at least 60c/litre, the normal sin tax increases, ie excise duties on alcohol and tobacco products, as well as an increase in income revenue from both dividend and capital gains taxes.
A big worry for Harmse though is the proposals of the Davis Committee on small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and further subsidies toward youth employment. He thinks in this budget it may be delayed to later years.
"If the minister can avoid a possible junk grading, the benefits may be even better for the high income earners. An avoidance of a junk grading will strengthen the rand exchange rate. This will definitely lead to fewer if any further interest rate hikes by the Monetary Policy Committee this year," said Harmse.
* Visit our Budget Special and sign up for our newsletter for same day action on Pravin Gordhan's speech.
Jim Ross Blogs About James Storm Coming To WWE, Seth Rollins' Booking, Brock Lesnar Vs. Undertaker - Wrestling Inc.
WWE Hall of Famer Jim Ross has posted his latest blog over at his official website. You can check out highlights of his blog entry below, or the full post at this link.
"The booking of WWE Champion Seth Rollins to rarely win on TV and to be an enhanced chickensh!t heel is a head scratcher. I thoroughly understand the concept of the vulnerable antagonist but for one's champion to rarely win on TV is questionable. The booking of Rollins needs addressing IMO."
"Anyone else feel that the Lesnar-Taker rubber match has lost it's buzz or luster? Hopefully these two can do something in Dallas this Monday to get fans buzzing about HIAC on Sunday Oct 25 in LA. Speaking of LA, you can score JR's products in Southern California at The Wrestling Guy Store."
"I'd encourage James Storm to join WWE if the opportunity is there and not ever have to look back some day and say "What if?' It's smart of wWE to retain the services of a guy like storm and even a Bobby Rood to see if they can find their way onto the main roster and to help the younger talents to improve their in ring game. 'Green' can't improve with working primarily with other 'green' talent. Guys like Storm and Rood, among others, can help build a better overall WWE brand by being there to work with the rookies. This process will take away some of the sting of not having wrestling Territories."
You can also check out JR's newest podcast with Jackie Gayda-Haas and Ryan Shamrock at this link.
DETROIT (AP) — Ford is recalling about 74,000 Focus hatchback cars with manual transmissions in the U.S. and Canada because the hatches can be unlatched too easily while the cars are moving.
The recall covers certain Focus hatchback and RS vehicles from the 2013 through 2017 model years. The company says the hatch can be unlocked and unlatched by pushing a single button when the cars are traveling under 4 miles per hour (7 kilometers per hour). Federal safety standards require two actions to unlock doors and operate the latch release.
Ford says it doesn't know of any accidents or injuries caused by the problem.
Dealers will reprogram a control module at no cost to the owners.
Believe it or not, the Chicago area is crisscrossed with scenic, Wisconsin-worthy bike routes that are free of cars and relatively flat—making them suitable for even the casual rider on a comfort bike. Get the Chicagoland Bicycle Map from the Active Transportation Alliance (activetrans.org) to plan out the rides here, which all begin near an el or Metra stop; as long as it’s not rush hour, you’re generally welcome to tote your wheels on the train.
Perched on a bluff near the confluence of the Wisconsin and Mississippi rivers in Wyalusing State Park, this 54-site campground has a fishing pier and boat launch nearby for easy canoeing (rentals available). The park also offers hiking and mountain biking trails, bird watching, and stargazing. Don’t miss the park’s American Indian burial mounds.
Pecatonica’s campground offers 49 sites from which to choose—some private, others in the open, all with electricity. Take a stroll along the trails and admire the wildflowers, or head over to the 130-year-old limestone barn that now serves as an environmental education center.
Take your own canoes. The campground doesn’t offer rentals and there isn’t an outfitter nearby. No reservations.
Situated along the 28-mile Historic Fox Valley Canoe Trail on the Fox River, Mallard Bend has it all: Rent a canoe or kayak from a nearby outfitter, swim in a spring-fed lake (no fish!), or soak in the heated in-ground pool.
Saturday nights the campground hosts events for the campers—horseshoe tournaments, bingo, movies, and DJs. Reservations suggested.
You can hike the deep sandstone ravines and explore the old-growth forests, then fish and canoe in Sugar Creek. There’s also horseback riding and hayrides. The campground has more than 200 sites, all with electricity. Turkey Run is in Parke County, the so-called Covered Bridge Capital of the World.
The campgrounds at Pigeon River are primitive—none of the 44 sites offer electricity—and the activities boil down to hunting, fishing, shooting a gun at the rifle range, and archery. Many people go to see the waterfowl or sightsee in Shipshewana, Indiana’s Amish Country.
The perfect tranquil getaway for adults, this may not be great for kids during the spring and fall hunting seasons. No reservations.
The introductory “total immersion” flight is an hour-and-a-half lesson—about 30 to 40 minutes in the air—with a certified flight instructor. You get to taxi the plane, talk to the control tower, and actually fly the thing.
The center, in operation for 30 years with a perfect safety record to date, boasts the highest skydive in the Midwest at 18,000 feet—but the 14,500-foot drop is the most popular. One-time tandem jumps also available.
Single jumps start at $200; Freefall University starts at $2,399.
Hangglide Chicago hooks you up with local pilots and certified instructors based on your skills and goals. Even beginners can get towed by plane 2,500 feet in the air before being released for a 20-minute glide.
Discovery flights start at $155; 16 lessons, $1,600.
Three beaches in the area are designated for windsurfing: Wolf Lake, Montrose, and Greenwood in Evanston. Jackie Butzen, the owner of Windward Sports, is a certified instructor and trainer with 30 years of experience.
Lessons start at $65; rental equipment is $10 extra.
Who says kites are just for kids? Next time you’re headed out to O’Hare, take a quick detour to Chicago Kite, which carries more than 1,000 kites in stock at all times and can custom-order to fit your needs.
Kites range from $14.99 for a single line to $1,000 for advanced models.
I started watching YouTubers in the summer of 2013 when I was 18 years old. I was going through one of the hardest times of my life and doubt I would have come through it without them. Three months earlier I had dropped out of school due to depression and since then had developed severe anxiety. I could barely leave the house, was going to therapy every single day and had trouble doing pretty much anything except lying in bed watching TV.
I write a blog and had followed the blogging community for a long time, but the idea of watching videos of someone I didn’t know had never appealed to me. My viewing time was saved exclusively for Friends re-runs and Greys Anatomy. One night though, as I lay in bed trying to find new blogs, I came across one called Zoella, written by a girl just a few years older than me called Zoe Sugg. She was funny, interesting and her blog was incredibly well written, the posts guiding me towards her YouTube videos. I sat and watched a few and at first was unimpressed. She had more than a million subscribers to her channel and I couldn’t quite understand the appeal. But I kept on watching, fuelled by insomnia, and by the morning I was hooked.
A year and a half later, the world of internet vlogging and YouTube celebrities has exploded. Zoella now has 8 million subscribers, a product line, a book deal, and as of the past few weeks – after publishing her novel Girl Online, achieving record-breaking sales, then being criticised for her use of a ghost writer – a torrent of attention from the non-YouTuber watching public. I understand the appeal of criticising young people who appear on YouTube, who have achieved a lot in a short space of time for reasons that are hard to understand. But I want to share my experience in the hope that it might help to explain this new world.
What I have gained from watching these people’s lives is something I will treasure for the rest of mine. My depression had led to me being unable to talk to anyone except my parents, and even with them I often found it incredibly hard to connect through the fog and pain that filled my brain. After discovering Zoella I was quickly introduced to a world of young British women and men making similar videos. Louise Pentland and Tanya Burr immediately became my favourites and I would rotate between the three women’s videos for hours every day. On the surface they talked mostly about makeup, beauty, shopping and skincare – subjects that can seem vapid, but in their hands became topics that revolved around self-love, self-care and a belief that everyone deserves to be and feel beautiful.
But as with so much in life, the true magic of the videos came from the moments in between. The women talked to me. They talked in a way that most people had become too scared to, and for the first time in years I began to feel my age again, like a teenage girl again, even like a remotely happy person again. When they laughed I felt happy, when they cried I felt sad, when they talked about their boyfriends, parents or new favourite lipgloss I felt like I had a friend again, someone who cared about the things I cared about, who would go shopping with me and do makeovers with me but most importantly who was going through the same things I was going through as a teenage girl.
There’s an argument made so often about YouTube stars that they are “just like us”, that they’re normal people and shouldn’t or don’t deserve to be treated like celebrities. But to say that is to completely misunderstand the work that these people are making. They are just like us, and that is an amazing thing. But the skill, effort and intelligence that goes into making a person feel as if they are not alone, as if they are hanging out with a friend, as if they are safe, is immense. In my mind Tanya Burr has just as much skill as any Oscar-winning actor, it’s just directed into a different place. Anyone who has ever tried to record footage of themselves being “normal” knows just how excruciating this can be, but three seconds into one of Tanya’s vlogs, you feel at home, and this has nothing to do with luck or normality, it has to do with talent. A new kind of talent, the talent of being a friend, of being a light in a day that might have otherwise been dark, of being a YouTuber.
There’s a video that Louise Pentland uploaded on Christmas Eve last year that is comprised mostly of her sitting in her car and crying. I watched this video 30 minutes after it had been uploaded. Christmas had arrived and I was as sick and sad as ever. YouTubers had become one of the most important parts of my life and I spent most of my Christmas Eve waiting for new videos. As Louise cried I began to cry, something that anyone who has had depression will know can often be very hard. I connected to her in a way I just didn’t to anyone I actually knew. And despite the fact that she was someone I had never met, she helped me in ways that simply no one else could.
I’ve had hundreds of moments like this. Moments when I’ve felt lonely, or scared, or like I was never going to get better. Moments that I’ve shared with these girls who live inside my computer and moments that I only got through because they were there. It might take years for the world to realise how talented they are, and I know most of them don’t even realise it themselves, crediting their success to luck and good timing. But millions of people around the world find solace, comfort and joy in the videos they make every single day. And that is down to the fact that these people are geniuses at what they do.
They have managed to help more people get through the never-ending battle that is growing up than anyone I can think of since The Beatles.
You might be see a book called Girl Online top the bestsellers list this Christmas, and wonder what on Earth it’s doing there. Or your son may ask you for a copy of The Pointless Book and you’ll have no idea what he’s talking about. You might find yourself in the middle of a debate over ghostwriting or arguing with a relative over how these books are just people trying to make money. But what’s behind these products are people whose work brings joy to your children, or your partner. People who might be closer to your loved ones than you are, without ever having met them.
Radar Road, visible leading up to the radar tower, has provided access to Skyline Ridge Trail from Owl Creek Road. A new singletrack trail will be constructed this summer as an alternative recreational route. A trail from the opposite side of the ridge â the Cozy Point side â is also planned.
Sky Mountain Park and the popular Skyline Ridge Trail will open on schedule on May 16 for a summer season that will bring construction of new trails to access the property.
The park is a conglomeration of open space parcels, mostly centered around Snowmass Village, totaling some 2,500 acres. The bulk of the property is closed Dec. 1 through May 15 to protect wildlife habitat, and much of it is closed year-round to dogs.
Scenic Skyline Ridge Trail, a Sky Mountain highlight, follows the top of the ridge separating the Brush Creek and Owl Creek valleys, extending between Snowmass Village and Highway 82.
It will open on schedule this year after snow and mud forced a delayed opening two years ago, when the ridge debuted for public use. Last year, the snow was gone early, and open space rangers were forced to cite violators for hitting the trail before it officially opened.
Repairing trail damage made by mountain bikers, equestrians and even hikers will only take away from efforts to construct new trails, he said.
This year’s planned work will improve access to Skyline Ridge Trail from the Highway 82 end, with single-track connections to be constructed from both Cozy Point South and the paved Owl Creek Trail — about five miles of new trails in all. Volunteer labor will play a key role, but roughly $30,000 in anticipated costs will be shared by the county and city of Aspen, partners in the projects.
The new Cozyline Trail will provide a route between the city’s Cozy Point Ranch, as well as the Brush Creek intercept lot, and Skyline Ridge Trail from near the intersection of Brush Creek Road and Highway 82. Equestrians who keep their horses at Cozy Point Ranch are especially keen to see Cozyline built.
The trail was to be constructed last summer, but drought conditions and the risk of wildfire associated with chain-saw use forced the project’s postponement.
This year, a Youth Corps crew and Roaring Fork Outdoor Volunteers will tackle Cozyline, which Tennenbaum hopes to see finished by mid- to late July.
The Outdoor Volunteers group will hold a series of evening projects on Cozyline on Tuesdays in June from 4 p.m. to dusk. Go to http://www.rfov.org to sign up.
On the opposite side of the ridge, where the dirt Radar Road provides access between Owl Creek Road and Skyline Ridge Trail, a new route dubbed Airline Trail will connect Owl Creek Trail to Cozyline, wrapping around the highway side of the Aspen-Pitkin County Airport’s radar tower atop the ridge.
The Youth Corps will begin work on Airline once Cozyline is finished, and Roaring Fork Outdoor Volunteers will hold an all-day project on Airline on July 20.
When it’s constructed, by mid- to late August, users will have an alternative to Radar Road, and the road likely will be retired from public use, Tennenbaum said. Potential future development of new facilities at the airport would preclude its use anyway, he said.
“The biggest complaint we get on Radar Road is its steepness,” Tennenbaum added.
Stretches of the road are at a 20 percent grade (Aspen’s popular Smuggler Mountain Road up to the viewing platform ranges from 8 to 15 percent by comparison, he said). The grade on Airline Trail will average 7 percent — comparable to Viewline Trail, which was previously constructed on the Snowmass Village end to provide a link to Skyline Ridge Trail.
The new routes will provide some stellar views from the top of Shale Bluffs and improve access from the Highway 82 end of Skyline Ridge Trail, according to Tennenbaum.
“It’s going to totally change the experience from the Aspen side,” Tennenbaum said.
The north section of the Rim Trail also will reopen on May 16. The Snowmass Village Town Council voted in March to alter that trail’s closure to coincide with that of Sky Mountain Park.
Users also will be able to walk leashed dogs on Rim Trail North this summer. In that same meeting, the council temporarily lifted the prohibition of dogs on that section of trail. The restriction formerly was not enforced, and many residents have campaigned to open it to canines. However, Pitkin County open space officials have said that they want to see compliance to a leash law before they will build the connection between the town trail and the Sky Mountain Park network.
Republicans know their party's reputation, and that their chances of taking the White House and keeping their power in Congress in 2012 hinge on how well they improve it.
A large and potentially rebellious crop of freshman lawmakers, some backed by conservative-libertarian tea party groups, will add an unpredictable and difficult-to-control element to whatever House Republicans set out to do. The realities of divided government, including President Barack Obama's veto power and the Democratic-controlled Senate, will limit what the party can achieve.
GOP leaders are working to calibrate the public's expectations. They're reminding people early and often that they didn't win the power to turn things around quickly and that they don't read the electorate's message as a sweeping mandate.
"The voters didn't suddenly fall in love with Republicans; they fell out of love with Democrats," said Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the minority leader whose power increases with at least six more GOP senators on his side.
McConnell said the party's prime mission should be to deny Obama a second term — the only way, he said, the GOP can really accomplish its goals of undoing the health care law, cutting spending and shrinking government.
"It would be foolish to expect that Republicans will be able to completely reverse the damage Democrats have done as long as a Democrat holds the veto pen," McConnell said in a speech to the conservative Heritage Foundation. "We have to be realistic about what we can and cannot achieve, while at the same recognizing that realism should never be confused with capitulation."
In the meantime, Republicans are promising efforts to dismantle the health care law piece by piece and cut taxes and spending. They also vow vigorous oversight to stop Obama from skirting Congress and enacting policy changes without their consent.
In the House, GOP leaders also pledged to make Congress more efficient and open and run the chamber in a way that makes it easier to slash federal expenditures.
Presumed Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, told colleagues in a letter that he'd "run a much different kind of Congress — one that is humbler, more transparent and respects the will and intelligence of the people."
In a letter to GOP incumbents and a newly elected class that includes many political novices, Boehner recounted his own "humble beginnings" working at his dad's bar and as a janitor working his way through college. "The people's priorities," he wrote, "must be our priorities."
Boehner and his top deputies have publicly acknowledged that their party lost its way the last time they had power, and that they have an uphill battle to prove to the public that they've changed.
"Let us be under no illusion: Many of those who cast their vote for Republicans (Nov. 2) have their share of doubts about whether we are up to the task of governing, about whether congressional Republicans have learned our lesson," Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va., told colleagues in a letter asking them to name him their new majority leader.
The GOP started the job in the bowels of the Capitol, just after 10 o'clock on the morning after its decisive House takeover. Leaders opened a transition office that will consider rule-changes and smooth the turnover of power from departing Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to Boehner.
"All of us are coming back here understanding voters want this place to change in a meaningful way," said Rep. Greg Walden, R-Ore., who's leading the transition.
New members who won tough campaigns vowing to change Washington will have seats at the table.
"They've been getting (input) from the American people, and if you're going to restore the trust in this institution of the American people, you'd better make sure their voice is heard," Walden said.
Key to the GOP's rebranding effort will be a theme leaders have been hitting hard in recent days: Republicans speak for the public, Obama and Democrats do not.
It's a tricky argument to sustain, particularly given that voters sent mixed messages last week about what they want.
Voters were dissatisfied with the way government was working — more than a quarter saying they're angry about it — and overwhelmingly disenchanted with Congress, according to an Associated Press analysis of exit polls.
Brock “Hey, I’m still here” Holt with two nice plays at 3B that inning.
Wonder how much the #RedSox pay those adults to do the Wally Wave? Must be a lot.
Encarnacion just hit a HR at Fenway that had the crowd gasping. 2-0 Jays.
This ring is actually pretty hefty.
Noted slugger Erik Kratz takes Doubront out to center field. 3-0 Jays.
#RedSox loaded the bases on two walks and a one-hopper the pitcher dropped that was called a hit. Here’s Bogaerts.
Interesting spot for Bogaerts right here. Can kind of make a point without saying anything.
Bogaerts hit a rocket and the 3B turns it into a double play.
Nieves came out to talk to Doubront. Now Farrell and a trainer.
Doubront could have whiplash based on the five extra base hits. He’s coming off the mound now.
#RedSox , I believe, were one of 2 or 3 team to use five starters this season. Suspect that’s about to change.

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