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post_id string	comment_id string	comment string	comment_score float64	comment_author string	comment_created_utc float64	post_title string	post_text string	post_score float64	post_author string	post_created_utc float64	company string	subreddit string	post_url string
kiyfwx	ggxzkrp	The linkedin part is brilliant... you say that many may discount it as anecdotal evidence, but this may be one of the more clearer signs that this company is showing great potential.	5	juiciijayy	1,608,853,712	$PFMT Performant Financial: Boring Business but a Diamond in the Rough	Disclaimer: I originally posted this in r/securityanalysis (Link: [https://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/comments/ki8z2q/pfmt\_performant\_financial\_boring\_business\_but\_a/](https://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/comments/ki8z2q/pfmt_performant_financial_boring_business_but_a/)) yesterday and received some responses. I am reposting it here to a bigger audience, with an added section to respond to some of the questions I received. I am hoping that by reposting on here, we can get more a discussion. I am not too familiar with reddit as I typically post on smaller value investing forums, and it is first time posting there. I plan to long in this company as I see the long term position of the company's growth in the health care sector. This is a minor position (5%) in what is a concentrated (10-15 company) portfolio. PFMT- Performant FinancialOverview:PFMT is a technology-based provider of audit, recovery, payment accuracy, coordination of benefits (COB), and outsource services in the United States. PFMT analyze claims, identify, prevent and correct inaccurate payments. Using their proprietary analytics platform and industry expertise, PFMT aim to reduce losses on billions of dollars worth of improper healthcare payments, state/federal/and treasury tax delinquencies, defaulted student loans and other receivables. Primary customers include government commercial health plans, CMS, Blues plans, regional Insurers, private/commercial programs, etc that operate in complex and highly regulated environments that rely on PFMT's innovative and disruptive approach. Revenue is generated based on a percentage of validated recoveries for clients. Contracts are negotiated on case by case basis, fees may range from 10-30% of recoveries and the duration of contracts may last 3-5+ years. These are high margin, recurring revenue contracts, expected to provide multiple years of prolonged double digit growth.This is not a sexy business, quite boring in fact. However, a good investment should be boring. Hopefully you will also appreciate the new path management has coursed, and see the potential upside in this turnaround story.Historically, PFMT was known for its legacy business as a collection agency for student loans, federal/state tax delinquencies and other receivables. Since the taking over of student loan originations by the Federal government a decade ago, PFMTs student loan collections have seen a diminishing contribution to revenues over time. Currently, the student loans collection business accounts for about 22% of revenues. While "Other" legacy collections still account for about 26% of revenues. Growth in Other legacy collections has remained relatively flat over the years. A smaller business segment derives marginal revenues from first party call centers and licensing of hosted technology solutions to clients. *The diamond in the rough refers to PFMT's up-and-coming* *healthcare* *business segment, composed of claims auditing and eligibility reviews. After seeing losses in 2018/19 due to high ramp up costs and standard implementation time lags, this segment appears to be set for robust growth going forward. Management has been clear that from 2017-2019, adjusted EBITDA has witnessed a slowdown to reflect a period of transformation in the company to establish itself in the Healthcare space. Management has confidently reiterated their belief in successfully reaching a 2021 goal of achieving $200M revenue with 20% EBITDA margins, with double digit growth continuing for years to come. Covid-19 Impact:This year was shaping up to be a strong year for PFMT, as Q1 showed promising results that validated the new trajectory of the company. Unfortunately, Q2 and Q3 were impacted by the public health emergency related to Covid-19. The CARES act brought changes that affected the student loans collection segment. Student loan payments, interest accrual and involuntary collection of payments (wage garnishments) were originally suspended till September 30, 2020 but were extended till December 31, 2020. However, PFMT continued to generate student loan revenue for a number of months from existing in-process borrow rehabilitation agreements. Another impact of Covid came from existing healthcare audit customers that requested a short-term pause on PFMT activities. Mgmt has indicated these pauses have largely ended during the third quarter. To mitigate the impact of this temporary slowdown, mgmt had furloughed more than 500 employees which could result in savings of about $18 million. The company is now aggressively ramping up efforts (including hiring/recruiting). Mgmt anticipates the ramp up efforts to be properly reflected in revenue by Q1 of 2021. Healthcare Business:The healthcare platform has finally reached scale, accounting for the largest (and continually growing) contribution to PFMTs revenue. In Q3, the healthcare business generated $17.6M in revenue (48.5% of total revenues (refer to Figure 1 below to view a cut out from the latest 10-k)). That is a 20.5% increase on sequential basis and a 63% increase from the same period last year. Please refer to figure 2 below, to see the change in healthcare revenues over time. This segment will continue to grow as Mgmt has made it clear this will be a main focus for the company. Soon healthcare will be the primary source of revenue (50%++), leading to a market multiple re-rate.Healthcare revenues over last 11 quarters: Q3 2020= $17.6MQ2 2020= $14.6MQ1 2020= $17.5MQ4 2019=$14.3MQ3 2019= $10.8MQ2 2019= $9.3MQ1 2019= $9MQ4 2018= $9.9MQ3 2018= $6.6MQ2 2018= $6.1MQ1 2018= $3.5M \[Figure 1: Q3 Financial Highlight\]([https://imgur.com/a/WlqPLjZ](https://imgur.com/a/WlqPLjZ)) \[Figure 2: PFMT Healthcare Revenues\]([https://imgur.com/a/W1OtGXu](https://imgur.com/a/W1OtGXu)) Macro:The macro environment indicates there should be tailwinds for the audit, recovery, payment accuracy and coordination of benefits outsourcing business solutions PFMT provides. According to the CMS, national healthcare expenditures are forecast to grow at 5.4% CAGR for the next 8 years. Reaching $6.8T by 2028. Despite efforts to reduce the amount of improper payments, error rates in the industry range from 6% in commercial to 14.9% in government plans. Healthcare spending growth is driven primarily by a combination of increasing enrollment and cost inflation. Given the current unemployment environment, we are witnessing a spike in Medicaid enrollment, which should continue to benefit the business via rising utilization and claims volumes. It is useful to note that there can be a lag of several months between Medicaid eligibility and resulting claims volumes. This indicates that a majority of the benefits from the current environment are still to come. Also, as private organizations and state governments are struggling with lower revenues and budget deficits, this could create an increased focus on cost containment strategies where PFMT could play a supporting function. PFMT mgmt sees a $200B+ healthcare TAM growing annually.Competitors:PFMT differentiates itself with its proprietary technology and customizable approach to each of their customers' needs. The space is mostly dominated by large, slow moving players, that lack flexibility and uniqueness in their approach. Major competitors include HMS Holdings Corp (HMSY-US, \~\~$3B mkt cap) and Cotiviti (acquired in mid-2018 for $4.9B). Contracts in this industry are limited, take time to implement and can last years. PFMT continues to build a moat around it's business by consistently winning, maintaining and being awarded new contracts. An example includes being re-awarded CMS recovery Audit Region 1 and being awarded the newly created Region 5. Thus, successfully showcasing PFMTs superior product and path to success in this space. PFMTs will continue to encroach on incumbents' healthcare market share as the market begins to realize the superiority of their technology and approach. Refer to Figure 3, below, for an image taken form the CMS website showing the audit region relative to competition. Figure 4 may help to visualize the healthcare insurance payment cycle, and where PFMT may offer value.Debt:On Aug 2017, PFMT entered a credit agreement with an existing shareholder and customer, ECMC. As of September 30, 2020 PFMT has about $62M loan outstanding under this credit agreement. ECMC has been able to accumulate about 5.8M warrants in PFMT as part of the agreement (about 10% of outstanding shares) all at an average exercise price of $1.95. The effective interest rate was about 13.9% in the 1H 2020. The loan is classified as a current liability, with maturity in August 2021. However, PFMT has two one-year options to extend maturity.PFMT currently (as of Sept 30,2020) has about $17.3M cash and equivalents on hand and is entering a period of FCF generation.The current low interest rate environment offers low hanging fruit for companies looking to refinance their loans at a lower rate. Reducing their loan rate to 5-8% could save up to $5.5M in annual interest expense.Timing/Technicals:As the calendar approached their earnings announcement date (Nov 11), PFMT stock was trading around recent highs of $2. The stock started selling off aggressively into the earnings and significantly further following earnings (despite a very positive release). The selling pressure appears to have been caused by portfolio management layoffs at Invesco, a top holder. Public disclosure of these layoffs coincides with timing of initial selloff, and a recent 13G filing confirms the exited position. This should quell any fears holders and followers of this stock may have had, as the selling was not based on fundamental flaws in the company or a new short thesis. Invesco owned about 18% of PFMT. Following the recent pressure, it appears the stock is in extremely oversold territory. Since their exit, the average volume profile of the stock has improved significantly, making accumulating a position easier for both retail and institutional demand.Valuation:The timing of Covid partially contributes to why the market overlooked this stock, as Q2 and Q3 earnings were impacted. To establish a fair EBITDA estimation for 2020, we will use Q1 results with a conservative bias. Q1 is most appropriate because it will give us the clearest picture of how the company was performing prior to the temporary impacts of Covid. Using Q1, EBITDA was $6.4M (after deducting stock compensation). Annualizing that amount will give us an EBITDA run rate of $25.6M. This is a conservative measure because we do not account for the impact of any potential interest rate savings or growth in the healthcare segment. Next we need to establish the enterprise value (EV= debt + mkt cap - cash). Which we use to calculate EV/EBITDA. Calculation below.EBITDA= $25.6MEnterprise Value (EV)= $62M (debt) + $41 (mkt cap) -$17.3M (Cash) = $85.7 MEV/EBITDA= 3.3XFully diluted share count of 59.7M o/s Now lets take a look at some Healthcare IT comparables. The first 7 are general comps, the bottom 3 are the most similar comps to PFMT. To clarify, HMSY is currently publicly trading and is a direct competitor to PFMT. In December 2019, HMSY acquired Accent (a coordination of benefits/payments accuracy unit of Intrado focused on commercial and Medicare Advantage payers) for $155M. Accent had generated about $50M of revenue during the 12 months ending october 2019 (vs PFMTs $150M revenues in 2019). Based on the transaction price, HMSY paid an estimated 11-12X EV/Ebitda on a TTM basis. COTV was acquired and taken private in 2018, it continues to be a direct competitor with PFMT. COTV operated in payment integrity and was acquired for $4.9B in mid 2018, an estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 14-15X based on consensus 2019 estimates. Also, keep in mind that the average EV/EBITDA for S&P companies in 2020 is about 14.5X.Healthcare IT Peer Trading Comp Table Mkt Cap SHARES O/S EV EV/EBITDA HMSY 2,793 88.6M 3,021 16.8XCHNG 5,581 304.5M 10,237 11.2XACN 173,423 661.1M 171,554 19XADS 3,466 49.6M 24,047 30.3XHQY 5,013 77M 5,803 27.2XIQV 34,135 191.7M 45,733 19.5XCERN 23,727 306.6M 24,167 14X Average: 19.7X PFMT 40.5 59.7M 86 3.3X(fully diluted) Most Similar Comps:COTV 4,900 (2019 est) 14.5XAccess 155 (Acquired by HMSY in 2019) 11-12XHMSY 2,793 88.6M 3,021 16.8X Average: 14.3X\[Table 2\]([https://imgur.com/a/MP4yZgi](https://imgur.com/a/MP4yZgi)) The market still largely views PFMT as a declining student loans collections firm. Yet growing beneath the surface is an attractive healthcare business. As this segment continues to grow the market will recognize the high quality recurring revenue, ability to scale, and increasingly healthcare-focused pure-play as a catalyst for a multiple rerate. Now using the comps above, I will provide 3 scenarios (best, base, worst case scenario) applying a discount to conservatively account for the micro-cap nature and higher leverage of PFMT.In the best case scenario, we apply a 14X EV/EBTDA ratio (rounded down from the most similar comparable peer average of 14.3X) which, on a fully diluted share basis, lead to a current price per share of $6.In the base case scenario, we take a couple of notches off the closest peer average and apply a 12X EV/EBITDA ratio. Resulting in a current target price of $5.15/shareIn the worst case scenario, we further take off two more notches from the most similar peer average to apply a 10X EV/EBITDA ratio. Resulting in a price of $4.29/share.Also, considering the existing ownership of the company. Parthenon investors, Prescott Group, Mill Road Capital are all large shareholders. It is not unreasonable to think that they pursue a more aggressive activist role in the company and set it up for sale at a premium. It is also possible that competitors recognize the massive discount of this up-and-coming threat, and decide to acquire PFMT before other market participants drive up the price making such a strategic acquisition far more expensive. All of which offer upside to existing shareholders.As we approach future quarters and results continue to support this positive narrative we should start to see investor appetite pick up for this name. Average daily volumes have quadrupled since Invesco's recent exiting has added to the freely trading shares, improving the liquidity profile of PFMT. These signals will start appearing on investor screens as they (professional small cap investors, value investors, quant investors, generalists, hedge funds, etc) look for new ideas. There is virtually zero sell-side coverage of this stock at the moment, this will likely change in the future. Accumulating a position now, presents an opportunity for entry at basement level prices in a stock that has the potential to provide 500-700% upside.* Thank you for taking the time to read my idea. Full disclosure, I am long PFMT. Feedback and criticism of this idea are encouraged. Always do your own due diligence. Ive included the sources used for this analysis in the links below.\[*Figure 3.:* CMS RACs per region\]([https://imgur.com/a/YWlHANZ](https://imgur.com/a/YWlHANZ)) \[*Figure 4:* Healthcare insurance payments explained\]([https://imgur.com/a/sbrh5pZ](https://imgur.com/a/sbrh5pZ))Claim Submissions (Steps 1 + 2): After treating a patient, the healthcare provider submits a claim for reimbursement to the health insurer. The claim will include information on the diagnosis and treatment/procedureClaim Adjudication (Step 3): The health plan conducts administrative checks (eg. validates provider information and patient eligibility/ coverage) and prices the claim using the providers contract/ fee schedule.Pre-payment Review (Step 4): The payor will leverage internal tools, followed by third party/outsourced solutions (ie. PFMT offerings) to conduct payment accuracy analysis prior to payment. Errors (discrepancies between the submitted claim and the payors payment policies) are identified and corrected.Claim Payment (Step 5 + 6): The health plan will reimburse the provider for the patient care and services renderedPost-payment review (Step 7): The payor will again use internal tools, followed by third party solutions (PFMT) to evaluate prior payments with additional information that has become available (eg. clinical reviews). Payors will correct Part 2: $PFMT hit $1 by EOD yesterday, as much as I would like to think that the prior write-up was a catalyst for PFMTs recent performance, it is more likely driven by some significant and recent industry developments. This will be a short follow up summarizing the recent event and why I think it is important to the underlying thesis. Also, I will try to respond to the some of the questions received last night. Thank you to all who have engaged me. Hopefully we can continue this constructive dialogue around this investment idea. On Monday morning (Dec 21), HMSY (a direct competitor of PFMT) announced it had agreed to be acquired by Gainwell Technologies for $3.4B. Gainwell is owned by the private equity firm Veritas Capital. In March 2020, DXC Technologies announced the sale of their Government Healthcare business segment for $5B in cash to Veritas which renamed this new segment: Gainwell Technologies. Prior to acquiring this segment from DXC, this healthcare business was generating $1.5B in annual revenues, growing double digits year over year with 20% margins (inline with industry standard and PFMTs 2021 margin goal). The transaction values HMSY at 16-17X forward 2021 EV/EBITDA. From what I gather, this is above most consensus estimates but still seems to be a fair price. A reminder that Veritas also acquired Cotiviti (COTV) in 2018 at a slightly lower valuation of 14-16X EV/EBITDA. The willingness to pay a premium relative to their COTV recent transaction indicates growing opportunity in the space. Veritas intends on breaking up the various HMSY segments and redistributing them among its portfolio companies COTV and Gainwell. COTV will take on the payment integrity and population health management business while Gainwell will take on the Medicade, Coordination of benefits/third party liability services business. Strategically, Veritas is able to secure HMSY's valuable set of data assets in the Medicaid market, and gaining exposure to the potentially higher EBITDA in 2021 due to the positive recent Medicaid enrollment trend. However, HMSY has been under pressure for failing to deliver predictable results and underperformance in some segments (particularly their population health management business). This inherent volatility in the revenue model is a burden on these companies (including PFMT) as it masks longer term growth and margin expansion potential. Though FTC concerns don’t appear to be an issue. It is uncertain to me what this new Veritas combination will mean for their Medicare RAC regions. As HMSY has one region and COTV has two. I believe there is a program limit of two regions per vendor. This could prove to be an obstacle for the new entity. Also the inherent culture clash in executing large mergers typically leads to significant employee turnover and loss of talent. In such a niche industry, I would imagine the labor market is tight and any brain drain could hurt the new entity. In fact, a basic linkedin search of these companies indicates a recent influx of talent from large competitors into PFMT. If industry incumbents, particularly experienced sales people, are realizing PFMT has a superior platform relative to the large slow moving competition then this should be another positive signal reinforcing PFMTs trajectory. Discount this as anecdotal investigative evidence but I think it has merit. The continuing theme of consolidation in this particular area of Healthcare IT highlights the large market opportunity across cost-containment and solutions services. Recent transactions: Access acquired by HMSY in 2018 at 11-12X EV/EBITDA DXC HC segment acquired by Veritas/Gainwell COTV acquired by Veritas at 14-15X HMSY acquired by Veritas at 16-17X This all bodes well for PFMT, as it solidifies my view that this turnaround story is not being valued as an appropriate comp to its peers. If TODAY the market determines that HMSY is worth 16-17X EV/EBITDA, this supports my Base and Best Case Scenario of valuing PFMT using a 12X ($5.15/share) and 14X ($6/share) multiple, respectively (accounting for microcap nature and leverage by reducing the multiple by a few notches). The recent price improvement in PFMT appears to be driven by a recognition of PFMT being undervalued on a comparable basis. Volumes have improved in the last few sessions but the stock is still extremely undervalued. Likely some retail investors accumulating entry positions. Imagine if a small fund of $100 AUM identifies this stock as an ideal investment, decides to initiate a small 200 basis point position. It would require 2-3M shares. The stock was up 20% today after trading only 1M shares, accumulating supply for a single fund position will require a significant movement in price. Given the current valuation, this opportunity could soon hit the radar screens of multiple funds. The recent string of transactions will continue to attract attention to this space. Sooner or later someone will start kicking the tires on PFMT... Responses to recent questions and comments: 1. Is it possible that customers build/improve their internal tools to the point where they become threats to PFMT? Good question. Customers may marginally improve their ability to audit claims internally but not to the point of being a threat. It's important to understand that the solutions/services offered by PFMT, HMSY, COTV, etc require technology- heavy platforms that require significant amount of resources (financial and intellectual) to develop, once developed there are minimal incremental costs for higher volumes. These types of commitments are not usually within the realm of possibilities among the customer base. The ever-changing complexity around these types of industries makes in-house billing departments ill-equipped to maximize value relative to specialists like PFMT. An example to illustrate such complexity would be the ongoing changes in the International Classification of Disease codes (ICD). When the WHO decided to change the medical classification codes of ICD9 to ICD10, it increased the number of procedure codes from 13,000 to 68,000. This is just one example of the type of nuance that will always provide opportunity for specialist support from a PFMT. 2. Terms of the credit agreement and Why hasn’t management refinanced the Debt? For anyone eager to learn more about the terms of the Credit Agreement, i would advise you read the latest 10k (link posted in my original report). The 10-k is helpful in clearly outlining all details. I think management is working towards refinancing the debt. But these are not things that can be negotiated or arranged immediately. It is possible that management wants/needs to have a certain number of consistent quarter over quarter improvement before they can renegotiate terms. In the current interest rate environment and following their recent turnaround progress, this low hanging fruit should be picked soon enough. 3. Divesting legacy business? I would not be surprised to see parts of the legacy business sold off as the focus turns toward the growing health care business. I will continue monitoring management discussion on next earnings call for any evidence to support this. 4. PFMT is transitioning to focus on its healthcare business. Some commentators have referred to PFMT as a pure-play student loans collection firm which would be a false description. Student loans do not account for a majority of their revenues and management has made it clear their focus has changed towards a constantly growing healthcare industry. 5. Comparables mentioned are 100X larger than PFMT, why is that a fair comparison? This is a reasonable observation. The answer to which is a function of numerous factors. The current market cap is significantly depressed as the popularity contest that IS the stock market is not identifying the value of this name. The stock was depressed further as a large holder just sold their 18% position, pushing the price near all-time lows. The huge gap in public market valuation is one of the reasons why this is a table pounding buy in my opinion. As this gap closes the difference in market cap will seem more acceptable. Also, despite being small, the fact that PFMT is able to compete on the same level with these giants is a testament to its superior product and team: evidenced by their ability to secure two Medicare RAC region contracts (competing directly with COTV and HMSY), among other contacts won from incumbents. 6. What is the moat/"secret sauce"? I am not a software engineer, nor do I have inner workings into PFMT's technology. Based on publicly available information, I can speculate that PFMT's disruptive technology refers its ability to differentiate itself over the competition. Competitors have been using a "one-size-fits-all approach" to their customers. PFMT uses their proprietary software to scrape data and yield higher rates of potential recoverable claims. Their solutions are more client-centric than the competition. As a smaller player they can be nimble, providing customized solutions to fulfill each client’s needs. For this reason they continue to be rewarded with new contracts taken from large incumbents. See the recent presentations (on their website) for quantitative case study examples. These contracts are difficult to win, have long term time horizons. The technology to service customers is unique and initially capital intensive to establish. Barriers to entry are significant. Sources:[https://www.performantcorp.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx](https://www.performantcorp.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx)[https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1550695&owner=exclude](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1550695&owner=exclude)[https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Monitoring-Programs/Medicare-FFS-Compliance-Programs/Recovery-Audit-Program](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Monitoring-Programs/Medicare-FFS-Compliance-Programs/Recovery-Audit-Program)[https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsHistorical](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsHistorical)	21	EducationalOlive0	1,608,748,294	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/kiyfwx/pfmt_performant_financial_boring_business_but_a/
kiyfwx	gh3xa9b	Thank you for sharing your amazing work u/EducationalOlive0! Why do you think insiders own so little of this company given the huge upside potential and technical based selling. If I were an insider I would be buying as much as possible at these depressed prices. In addition I was curios as to why you are deciding to keep this at a 5% position. There seems to be huge upside potential here, are there also large downside risks to this name? Sizing this seemingly amazing opportunity at 5% seems to imply some potential worries of large downside. Thank you so much for sharing.	5	No-Nerve7103	1,609,020,590	$PFMT Performant Financial: Boring Business but a Diamond in the Rough	Disclaimer: I originally posted this in r/securityanalysis (Link: [https://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/comments/ki8z2q/pfmt\_performant\_financial\_boring\_business\_but\_a/](https://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/comments/ki8z2q/pfmt_performant_financial_boring_business_but_a/)) yesterday and received some responses. I am reposting it here to a bigger audience, with an added section to respond to some of the questions I received. I am hoping that by reposting on here, we can get more a discussion. I am not too familiar with reddit as I typically post on smaller value investing forums, and it is first time posting there. I plan to long in this company as I see the long term position of the company's growth in the health care sector. This is a minor position (5%) in what is a concentrated (10-15 company) portfolio. PFMT- Performant FinancialOverview:PFMT is a technology-based provider of audit, recovery, payment accuracy, coordination of benefits (COB), and outsource services in the United States. PFMT analyze claims, identify, prevent and correct inaccurate payments. Using their proprietary analytics platform and industry expertise, PFMT aim to reduce losses on billions of dollars worth of improper healthcare payments, state/federal/and treasury tax delinquencies, defaulted student loans and other receivables. Primary customers include government commercial health plans, CMS, Blues plans, regional Insurers, private/commercial programs, etc that operate in complex and highly regulated environments that rely on PFMT's innovative and disruptive approach. Revenue is generated based on a percentage of validated recoveries for clients. Contracts are negotiated on case by case basis, fees may range from 10-30% of recoveries and the duration of contracts may last 3-5+ years. These are high margin, recurring revenue contracts, expected to provide multiple years of prolonged double digit growth.This is not a sexy business, quite boring in fact. However, a good investment should be boring. Hopefully you will also appreciate the new path management has coursed, and see the potential upside in this turnaround story.Historically, PFMT was known for its legacy business as a collection agency for student loans, federal/state tax delinquencies and other receivables. Since the taking over of student loan originations by the Federal government a decade ago, PFMTs student loan collections have seen a diminishing contribution to revenues over time. Currently, the student loans collection business accounts for about 22% of revenues. While "Other" legacy collections still account for about 26% of revenues. Growth in Other legacy collections has remained relatively flat over the years. A smaller business segment derives marginal revenues from first party call centers and licensing of hosted technology solutions to clients. *The diamond in the rough refers to PFMT's up-and-coming* *healthcare* *business segment, composed of claims auditing and eligibility reviews. After seeing losses in 2018/19 due to high ramp up costs and standard implementation time lags, this segment appears to be set for robust growth going forward. Management has been clear that from 2017-2019, adjusted EBITDA has witnessed a slowdown to reflect a period of transformation in the company to establish itself in the Healthcare space. Management has confidently reiterated their belief in successfully reaching a 2021 goal of achieving $200M revenue with 20% EBITDA margins, with double digit growth continuing for years to come. Covid-19 Impact:This year was shaping up to be a strong year for PFMT, as Q1 showed promising results that validated the new trajectory of the company. Unfortunately, Q2 and Q3 were impacted by the public health emergency related to Covid-19. The CARES act brought changes that affected the student loans collection segment. Student loan payments, interest accrual and involuntary collection of payments (wage garnishments) were originally suspended till September 30, 2020 but were extended till December 31, 2020. However, PFMT continued to generate student loan revenue for a number of months from existing in-process borrow rehabilitation agreements. Another impact of Covid came from existing healthcare audit customers that requested a short-term pause on PFMT activities. Mgmt has indicated these pauses have largely ended during the third quarter. To mitigate the impact of this temporary slowdown, mgmt had furloughed more than 500 employees which could result in savings of about $18 million. The company is now aggressively ramping up efforts (including hiring/recruiting). Mgmt anticipates the ramp up efforts to be properly reflected in revenue by Q1 of 2021. Healthcare Business:The healthcare platform has finally reached scale, accounting for the largest (and continually growing) contribution to PFMTs revenue. In Q3, the healthcare business generated $17.6M in revenue (48.5% of total revenues (refer to Figure 1 below to view a cut out from the latest 10-k)). That is a 20.5% increase on sequential basis and a 63% increase from the same period last year. Please refer to figure 2 below, to see the change in healthcare revenues over time. This segment will continue to grow as Mgmt has made it clear this will be a main focus for the company. Soon healthcare will be the primary source of revenue (50%++), leading to a market multiple re-rate.Healthcare revenues over last 11 quarters: Q3 2020= $17.6MQ2 2020= $14.6MQ1 2020= $17.5MQ4 2019=$14.3MQ3 2019= $10.8MQ2 2019= $9.3MQ1 2019= $9MQ4 2018= $9.9MQ3 2018= $6.6MQ2 2018= $6.1MQ1 2018= $3.5M \[Figure 1: Q3 Financial Highlight\]([https://imgur.com/a/WlqPLjZ](https://imgur.com/a/WlqPLjZ)) \[Figure 2: PFMT Healthcare Revenues\]([https://imgur.com/a/W1OtGXu](https://imgur.com/a/W1OtGXu)) Macro:The macro environment indicates there should be tailwinds for the audit, recovery, payment accuracy and coordination of benefits outsourcing business solutions PFMT provides. According to the CMS, national healthcare expenditures are forecast to grow at 5.4% CAGR for the next 8 years. Reaching $6.8T by 2028. Despite efforts to reduce the amount of improper payments, error rates in the industry range from 6% in commercial to 14.9% in government plans. Healthcare spending growth is driven primarily by a combination of increasing enrollment and cost inflation. Given the current unemployment environment, we are witnessing a spike in Medicaid enrollment, which should continue to benefit the business via rising utilization and claims volumes. It is useful to note that there can be a lag of several months between Medicaid eligibility and resulting claims volumes. This indicates that a majority of the benefits from the current environment are still to come. Also, as private organizations and state governments are struggling with lower revenues and budget deficits, this could create an increased focus on cost containment strategies where PFMT could play a supporting function. PFMT mgmt sees a $200B+ healthcare TAM growing annually.Competitors:PFMT differentiates itself with its proprietary technology and customizable approach to each of their customers' needs. The space is mostly dominated by large, slow moving players, that lack flexibility and uniqueness in their approach. Major competitors include HMS Holdings Corp (HMSY-US, \~\~$3B mkt cap) and Cotiviti (acquired in mid-2018 for $4.9B). Contracts in this industry are limited, take time to implement and can last years. PFMT continues to build a moat around it's business by consistently winning, maintaining and being awarded new contracts. An example includes being re-awarded CMS recovery Audit Region 1 and being awarded the newly created Region 5. Thus, successfully showcasing PFMTs superior product and path to success in this space. PFMTs will continue to encroach on incumbents' healthcare market share as the market begins to realize the superiority of their technology and approach. Refer to Figure 3, below, for an image taken form the CMS website showing the audit region relative to competition. Figure 4 may help to visualize the healthcare insurance payment cycle, and where PFMT may offer value.Debt:On Aug 2017, PFMT entered a credit agreement with an existing shareholder and customer, ECMC. As of September 30, 2020 PFMT has about $62M loan outstanding under this credit agreement. ECMC has been able to accumulate about 5.8M warrants in PFMT as part of the agreement (about 10% of outstanding shares) all at an average exercise price of $1.95. The effective interest rate was about 13.9% in the 1H 2020. The loan is classified as a current liability, with maturity in August 2021. However, PFMT has two one-year options to extend maturity.PFMT currently (as of Sept 30,2020) has about $17.3M cash and equivalents on hand and is entering a period of FCF generation.The current low interest rate environment offers low hanging fruit for companies looking to refinance their loans at a lower rate. Reducing their loan rate to 5-8% could save up to $5.5M in annual interest expense.Timing/Technicals:As the calendar approached their earnings announcement date (Nov 11), PFMT stock was trading around recent highs of $2. The stock started selling off aggressively into the earnings and significantly further following earnings (despite a very positive release). The selling pressure appears to have been caused by portfolio management layoffs at Invesco, a top holder. Public disclosure of these layoffs coincides with timing of initial selloff, and a recent 13G filing confirms the exited position. This should quell any fears holders and followers of this stock may have had, as the selling was not based on fundamental flaws in the company or a new short thesis. Invesco owned about 18% of PFMT. Following the recent pressure, it appears the stock is in extremely oversold territory. Since their exit, the average volume profile of the stock has improved significantly, making accumulating a position easier for both retail and institutional demand.Valuation:The timing of Covid partially contributes to why the market overlooked this stock, as Q2 and Q3 earnings were impacted. To establish a fair EBITDA estimation for 2020, we will use Q1 results with a conservative bias. Q1 is most appropriate because it will give us the clearest picture of how the company was performing prior to the temporary impacts of Covid. Using Q1, EBITDA was $6.4M (after deducting stock compensation). Annualizing that amount will give us an EBITDA run rate of $25.6M. This is a conservative measure because we do not account for the impact of any potential interest rate savings or growth in the healthcare segment. Next we need to establish the enterprise value (EV= debt + mkt cap - cash). Which we use to calculate EV/EBITDA. Calculation below.EBITDA= $25.6MEnterprise Value (EV)= $62M (debt) + $41 (mkt cap) -$17.3M (Cash) = $85.7 MEV/EBITDA= 3.3XFully diluted share count of 59.7M o/s Now lets take a look at some Healthcare IT comparables. The first 7 are general comps, the bottom 3 are the most similar comps to PFMT. To clarify, HMSY is currently publicly trading and is a direct competitor to PFMT. In December 2019, HMSY acquired Accent (a coordination of benefits/payments accuracy unit of Intrado focused on commercial and Medicare Advantage payers) for $155M. Accent had generated about $50M of revenue during the 12 months ending october 2019 (vs PFMTs $150M revenues in 2019). Based on the transaction price, HMSY paid an estimated 11-12X EV/Ebitda on a TTM basis. COTV was acquired and taken private in 2018, it continues to be a direct competitor with PFMT. COTV operated in payment integrity and was acquired for $4.9B in mid 2018, an estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 14-15X based on consensus 2019 estimates. Also, keep in mind that the average EV/EBITDA for S&P companies in 2020 is about 14.5X.Healthcare IT Peer Trading Comp Table Mkt Cap SHARES O/S EV EV/EBITDA HMSY 2,793 88.6M 3,021 16.8XCHNG 5,581 304.5M 10,237 11.2XACN 173,423 661.1M 171,554 19XADS 3,466 49.6M 24,047 30.3XHQY 5,013 77M 5,803 27.2XIQV 34,135 191.7M 45,733 19.5XCERN 23,727 306.6M 24,167 14X Average: 19.7X PFMT 40.5 59.7M 86 3.3X(fully diluted) Most Similar Comps:COTV 4,900 (2019 est) 14.5XAccess 155 (Acquired by HMSY in 2019) 11-12XHMSY 2,793 88.6M 3,021 16.8X Average: 14.3X\[Table 2\]([https://imgur.com/a/MP4yZgi](https://imgur.com/a/MP4yZgi)) The market still largely views PFMT as a declining student loans collections firm. Yet growing beneath the surface is an attractive healthcare business. As this segment continues to grow the market will recognize the high quality recurring revenue, ability to scale, and increasingly healthcare-focused pure-play as a catalyst for a multiple rerate. Now using the comps above, I will provide 3 scenarios (best, base, worst case scenario) applying a discount to conservatively account for the micro-cap nature and higher leverage of PFMT.In the best case scenario, we apply a 14X EV/EBTDA ratio (rounded down from the most similar comparable peer average of 14.3X) which, on a fully diluted share basis, lead to a current price per share of $6.In the base case scenario, we take a couple of notches off the closest peer average and apply a 12X EV/EBITDA ratio. Resulting in a current target price of $5.15/shareIn the worst case scenario, we further take off two more notches from the most similar peer average to apply a 10X EV/EBITDA ratio. Resulting in a price of $4.29/share.Also, considering the existing ownership of the company. Parthenon investors, Prescott Group, Mill Road Capital are all large shareholders. It is not unreasonable to think that they pursue a more aggressive activist role in the company and set it up for sale at a premium. It is also possible that competitors recognize the massive discount of this up-and-coming threat, and decide to acquire PFMT before other market participants drive up the price making such a strategic acquisition far more expensive. All of which offer upside to existing shareholders.As we approach future quarters and results continue to support this positive narrative we should start to see investor appetite pick up for this name. Average daily volumes have quadrupled since Invesco's recent exiting has added to the freely trading shares, improving the liquidity profile of PFMT. These signals will start appearing on investor screens as they (professional small cap investors, value investors, quant investors, generalists, hedge funds, etc) look for new ideas. There is virtually zero sell-side coverage of this stock at the moment, this will likely change in the future. Accumulating a position now, presents an opportunity for entry at basement level prices in a stock that has the potential to provide 500-700% upside.* Thank you for taking the time to read my idea. Full disclosure, I am long PFMT. Feedback and criticism of this idea are encouraged. Always do your own due diligence. Ive included the sources used for this analysis in the links below.\[*Figure 3.:* CMS RACs per region\]([https://imgur.com/a/YWlHANZ](https://imgur.com/a/YWlHANZ)) \[*Figure 4:* Healthcare insurance payments explained\]([https://imgur.com/a/sbrh5pZ](https://imgur.com/a/sbrh5pZ))Claim Submissions (Steps 1 + 2): After treating a patient, the healthcare provider submits a claim for reimbursement to the health insurer. The claim will include information on the diagnosis and treatment/procedureClaim Adjudication (Step 3): The health plan conducts administrative checks (eg. validates provider information and patient eligibility/ coverage) and prices the claim using the providers contract/ fee schedule.Pre-payment Review (Step 4): The payor will leverage internal tools, followed by third party/outsourced solutions (ie. PFMT offerings) to conduct payment accuracy analysis prior to payment. Errors (discrepancies between the submitted claim and the payors payment policies) are identified and corrected.Claim Payment (Step 5 + 6): The health plan will reimburse the provider for the patient care and services renderedPost-payment review (Step 7): The payor will again use internal tools, followed by third party solutions (PFMT) to evaluate prior payments with additional information that has become available (eg. clinical reviews). Payors will correct Part 2: $PFMT hit $1 by EOD yesterday, as much as I would like to think that the prior write-up was a catalyst for PFMTs recent performance, it is more likely driven by some significant and recent industry developments. This will be a short follow up summarizing the recent event and why I think it is important to the underlying thesis. Also, I will try to respond to the some of the questions received last night. Thank you to all who have engaged me. Hopefully we can continue this constructive dialogue around this investment idea. On Monday morning (Dec 21), HMSY (a direct competitor of PFMT) announced it had agreed to be acquired by Gainwell Technologies for $3.4B. Gainwell is owned by the private equity firm Veritas Capital. In March 2020, DXC Technologies announced the sale of their Government Healthcare business segment for $5B in cash to Veritas which renamed this new segment: Gainwell Technologies. Prior to acquiring this segment from DXC, this healthcare business was generating $1.5B in annual revenues, growing double digits year over year with 20% margins (inline with industry standard and PFMTs 2021 margin goal). The transaction values HMSY at 16-17X forward 2021 EV/EBITDA. From what I gather, this is above most consensus estimates but still seems to be a fair price. A reminder that Veritas also acquired Cotiviti (COTV) in 2018 at a slightly lower valuation of 14-16X EV/EBITDA. The willingness to pay a premium relative to their COTV recent transaction indicates growing opportunity in the space. Veritas intends on breaking up the various HMSY segments and redistributing them among its portfolio companies COTV and Gainwell. COTV will take on the payment integrity and population health management business while Gainwell will take on the Medicade, Coordination of benefits/third party liability services business. Strategically, Veritas is able to secure HMSY's valuable set of data assets in the Medicaid market, and gaining exposure to the potentially higher EBITDA in 2021 due to the positive recent Medicaid enrollment trend. However, HMSY has been under pressure for failing to deliver predictable results and underperformance in some segments (particularly their population health management business). This inherent volatility in the revenue model is a burden on these companies (including PFMT) as it masks longer term growth and margin expansion potential. Though FTC concerns don’t appear to be an issue. It is uncertain to me what this new Veritas combination will mean for their Medicare RAC regions. As HMSY has one region and COTV has two. I believe there is a program limit of two regions per vendor. This could prove to be an obstacle for the new entity. Also the inherent culture clash in executing large mergers typically leads to significant employee turnover and loss of talent. In such a niche industry, I would imagine the labor market is tight and any brain drain could hurt the new entity. In fact, a basic linkedin search of these companies indicates a recent influx of talent from large competitors into PFMT. If industry incumbents, particularly experienced sales people, are realizing PFMT has a superior platform relative to the large slow moving competition then this should be another positive signal reinforcing PFMTs trajectory. Discount this as anecdotal investigative evidence but I think it has merit. The continuing theme of consolidation in this particular area of Healthcare IT highlights the large market opportunity across cost-containment and solutions services. Recent transactions: Access acquired by HMSY in 2018 at 11-12X EV/EBITDA DXC HC segment acquired by Veritas/Gainwell COTV acquired by Veritas at 14-15X HMSY acquired by Veritas at 16-17X This all bodes well for PFMT, as it solidifies my view that this turnaround story is not being valued as an appropriate comp to its peers. If TODAY the market determines that HMSY is worth 16-17X EV/EBITDA, this supports my Base and Best Case Scenario of valuing PFMT using a 12X ($5.15/share) and 14X ($6/share) multiple, respectively (accounting for microcap nature and leverage by reducing the multiple by a few notches). The recent price improvement in PFMT appears to be driven by a recognition of PFMT being undervalued on a comparable basis. Volumes have improved in the last few sessions but the stock is still extremely undervalued. Likely some retail investors accumulating entry positions. Imagine if a small fund of $100 AUM identifies this stock as an ideal investment, decides to initiate a small 200 basis point position. It would require 2-3M shares. The stock was up 20% today after trading only 1M shares, accumulating supply for a single fund position will require a significant movement in price. Given the current valuation, this opportunity could soon hit the radar screens of multiple funds. The recent string of transactions will continue to attract attention to this space. Sooner or later someone will start kicking the tires on PFMT... Responses to recent questions and comments: 1. Is it possible that customers build/improve their internal tools to the point where they become threats to PFMT? Good question. Customers may marginally improve their ability to audit claims internally but not to the point of being a threat. It's important to understand that the solutions/services offered by PFMT, HMSY, COTV, etc require technology- heavy platforms that require significant amount of resources (financial and intellectual) to develop, once developed there are minimal incremental costs for higher volumes. These types of commitments are not usually within the realm of possibilities among the customer base. The ever-changing complexity around these types of industries makes in-house billing departments ill-equipped to maximize value relative to specialists like PFMT. An example to illustrate such complexity would be the ongoing changes in the International Classification of Disease codes (ICD). When the WHO decided to change the medical classification codes of ICD9 to ICD10, it increased the number of procedure codes from 13,000 to 68,000. This is just one example of the type of nuance that will always provide opportunity for specialist support from a PFMT. 2. Terms of the credit agreement and Why hasn’t management refinanced the Debt? For anyone eager to learn more about the terms of the Credit Agreement, i would advise you read the latest 10k (link posted in my original report). The 10-k is helpful in clearly outlining all details. I think management is working towards refinancing the debt. But these are not things that can be negotiated or arranged immediately. It is possible that management wants/needs to have a certain number of consistent quarter over quarter improvement before they can renegotiate terms. In the current interest rate environment and following their recent turnaround progress, this low hanging fruit should be picked soon enough. 3. Divesting legacy business? I would not be surprised to see parts of the legacy business sold off as the focus turns toward the growing health care business. I will continue monitoring management discussion on next earnings call for any evidence to support this. 4. PFMT is transitioning to focus on its healthcare business. Some commentators have referred to PFMT as a pure-play student loans collection firm which would be a false description. Student loans do not account for a majority of their revenues and management has made it clear their focus has changed towards a constantly growing healthcare industry. 5. Comparables mentioned are 100X larger than PFMT, why is that a fair comparison? This is a reasonable observation. The answer to which is a function of numerous factors. The current market cap is significantly depressed as the popularity contest that IS the stock market is not identifying the value of this name. The stock was depressed further as a large holder just sold their 18% position, pushing the price near all-time lows. The huge gap in public market valuation is one of the reasons why this is a table pounding buy in my opinion. As this gap closes the difference in market cap will seem more acceptable. Also, despite being small, the fact that PFMT is able to compete on the same level with these giants is a testament to its superior product and team: evidenced by their ability to secure two Medicare RAC region contracts (competing directly with COTV and HMSY), among other contacts won from incumbents. 6. What is the moat/"secret sauce"? I am not a software engineer, nor do I have inner workings into PFMT's technology. Based on publicly available information, I can speculate that PFMT's disruptive technology refers its ability to differentiate itself over the competition. Competitors have been using a "one-size-fits-all approach" to their customers. PFMT uses their proprietary software to scrape data and yield higher rates of potential recoverable claims. Their solutions are more client-centric than the competition. As a smaller player they can be nimble, providing customized solutions to fulfill each client’s needs. For this reason they continue to be rewarded with new contracts taken from large incumbents. See the recent presentations (on their website) for quantitative case study examples. These contracts are difficult to win, have long term time horizons. The technology to service customers is unique and initially capital intensive to establish. Barriers to entry are significant. Sources:[https://www.performantcorp.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx](https://www.performantcorp.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx)[https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1550695&owner=exclude](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1550695&owner=exclude)[https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Monitoring-Programs/Medicare-FFS-Compliance-Programs/Recovery-Audit-Program](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Monitoring-Programs/Medicare-FFS-Compliance-Programs/Recovery-Audit-Program)[https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsHistorical](https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NationalHealthAccountsHistorical)	21	EducationalOlive0	1,608,748,294	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/kiyfwx/pfmt_performant_financial_boring_business_but_a/
k4clm0	ge8efjj	Working on my PhD in AI and have been doing AI in industry for a few years... this company is a no-go. The product looks very similar to what Data Robot and Alteryx provide when it comes to "AI". Also, they only have 12 whitepapers none of which are from any reputable AI conferences so i'd refrain from even calling them an "AI" company. Despite what many people think, these companies, Palantir included, are not cash cows. If they had a good business model Google would have capitalized on it by now since they are responsible for, or directly funded, the vast, vast majority of ML/AI advancements in the last decade.	19	MonstarGaming	1,606,800,937	C3.ai IPO same week as DASH	[C3.AI](https://C3.AI) Seems like a potential buy, any more information is welcome. Here is my DD. Week of December 7th, 2020 NYSE Price range $31-$34, 15.5M Shares. Ticker “Ai” Launched in 2008 by Tom Siebel. Siebel started Siebel systems and sold it to Oracle in 06 for $6bn. C3.AI software can read massive data and provide information to clients. They have a partnership with Microsoft, Bank of America, Koch Industries, AstraZeneca, U.S Air Force, Army Aviation, U.S Strategic Command from California. Most recently valued at 3.3 BN. C3.AI research teams were awarded a $1m grant in April to develop mathematical models to predict COVID-19 spread. They have pledged to spend $367m over the next 5 years to find ways to slow the ongoing impact of COVID-19. Underwriters are Morgan Stanley, J.P Morgan, and Bank of America. Underwriters are offered an additional 2.33 million shares. Koch Industries has agreed to purchase $100m of common stock. Microsoft has agreed to buy $50m of common stock. After IPO C3.ai will have roughly 99.2m shares ($33.20 share midpoint). Siebel will retain 72% of voting power after IPO. Siebel was an executive at Oracle Corporation, CEO of Gain Technology, founder and CEO of Siebel Systems sold to Oracle. Other customers of C3.ai are 3M, Royal Dutch Shell, New York Power Authority Has been listed in 2019 and 2020 CNBC “Disruptor List” From Wikipedia “Enterprise AI software applies artificial intelligence methods, such as machine learning and neural networks, to solve complex analytical problems in commerce, industry, and government.\[26\] Organizations use enterprise AI software to increase efficiencies, reduce costs, and improve operations.\[27\] The US Air Force, for example, uses AI to predict engine failure in aircraft before a failure occurs in order to improve maintenance and increase aircraft readiness.\[24\]” The company being valued at 3.08-3.3 BN goes down if the underwriters do not exercise their purchase option. Down by about 70-80m.If you want the prospectus you can email ;prospectus-eq\_fi@jpmorganchase. com From Investopedia “A prospectus includes some of the following information: * A brief summary of the company’s background and financial information * The name of the company issuing the stock * The number of shares * Type of securities being offered * Whether an offering is public or private * Names of the company’s principals Names of the banks or financial companies performing the underwriting” TL;DR AI Company with thicc clients debut's around $31-$34 a share in or around dec 7th. Some dude named Siebel founded it, seems legit. Know anything? Pls share.	19	Incarnegie	1,606,793,294	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/k4clm0/c3ai_ipo_same_week_as_dash/
k4clm0	ge98x8l	Nah... 20x revenue for this thing seems way too high to me. Customer concentration is insane (top 3 44% of rev?) and too much volatility in model to warrant a multiple that high. Also, Ray Tiernan (high quality business tech journalist) makes the case [link](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zdnet.com/google-amp/article/dissecting-c3-ais-secret-sauce-less-about-ai-more-about-fixing-hadoop/) that it’s less of an “AI” company and more about stitching together infrastructure/databases so companies can actually leverage their data.	6	adtags29	1,606,829,445	C3.ai IPO same week as DASH	[C3.AI](https://C3.AI) Seems like a potential buy, any more information is welcome. Here is my DD. Week of December 7th, 2020 NYSE Price range $31-$34, 15.5M Shares. Ticker “Ai” Launched in 2008 by Tom Siebel. Siebel started Siebel systems and sold it to Oracle in 06 for $6bn. C3.AI software can read massive data and provide information to clients. They have a partnership with Microsoft, Bank of America, Koch Industries, AstraZeneca, U.S Air Force, Army Aviation, U.S Strategic Command from California. Most recently valued at 3.3 BN. C3.AI research teams were awarded a $1m grant in April to develop mathematical models to predict COVID-19 spread. They have pledged to spend $367m over the next 5 years to find ways to slow the ongoing impact of COVID-19. Underwriters are Morgan Stanley, J.P Morgan, and Bank of America. Underwriters are offered an additional 2.33 million shares. Koch Industries has agreed to purchase $100m of common stock. Microsoft has agreed to buy $50m of common stock. After IPO C3.ai will have roughly 99.2m shares ($33.20 share midpoint). Siebel will retain 72% of voting power after IPO. Siebel was an executive at Oracle Corporation, CEO of Gain Technology, founder and CEO of Siebel Systems sold to Oracle. Other customers of C3.ai are 3M, Royal Dutch Shell, New York Power Authority Has been listed in 2019 and 2020 CNBC “Disruptor List” From Wikipedia “Enterprise AI software applies artificial intelligence methods, such as machine learning and neural networks, to solve complex analytical problems in commerce, industry, and government.\[26\] Organizations use enterprise AI software to increase efficiencies, reduce costs, and improve operations.\[27\] The US Air Force, for example, uses AI to predict engine failure in aircraft before a failure occurs in order to improve maintenance and increase aircraft readiness.\[24\]” The company being valued at 3.08-3.3 BN goes down if the underwriters do not exercise their purchase option. Down by about 70-80m.If you want the prospectus you can email ;prospectus-eq\_fi@jpmorganchase. com From Investopedia “A prospectus includes some of the following information: * A brief summary of the company’s background and financial information * The name of the company issuing the stock * The number of shares * Type of securities being offered * Whether an offering is public or private * Names of the company’s principals Names of the banks or financial companies performing the underwriting” TL;DR AI Company with thicc clients debut's around $31-$34 a share in or around dec 7th. Some dude named Siebel founded it, seems legit. Know anything? Pls share.	19	Incarnegie	1,606,793,294	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/k4clm0/c3ai_ipo_same_week_as_dash/
jlim4i	gapgov4	watch the MOVE Index along with the VIX. It's all under control. Buy this dip or you will regret it because the market will rally next week	9	TimeInTheMarketnHODL	1,604,159,541	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 2nd, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading month ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 2nd, 2020. # Investors are hoping for a clear presidential and Senate election outcome to end the sell-off - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/30/investors-are-hoping-for-a-clear-presidential-and-senate-election-outcome-to-end-the-sell-off.html) *** > The best hope for markets in the week ahead is that there is a clear cut winner in Tuesday’s presidential election. * > The election looms large as the biggest wild card risk for markets, and there is a real concern that no outcome could lead to a period of uncertainty and turbulence for markets and the economy. On the other hand, some strategists say a clear winner and quick concession by the other candidate could lead to a relief rally. Also a worry is that Senate elections could be unresolved, which means it may not be known which party holds the majority. * > “If there’s no clear winner, it will be negative for risk assets...The market is really worried about not having clarity after the election. They’re worried about it dragging out four weeks as the results are contested,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The overall landscape is not a political one. It’s that we’re in a pandemic, and we don’t want an uncertain election outcome that leaves the country concerned about leadership.” * > Stocks closed out October on a sour note, losing about 6% for the week, the worst performance since March, when the pandemic first shut down the economy. Strategists say the coronavirus is again worrying the market, as major European countries go into partial lockdowns, and the U.S. faces record numbers of new cases. * > Lyngen said he does not expect the markets to react as much if it’s only the fate of the Senate that is undetermined. But that is still very important, and if it’s not clear which party has a majority for days or even weeks, that would cast doubt on the ability of whichever candidate wins the presidency to pursue their policy agenda. * > # Senate key for stimulus > The Senate is also key to how much money will be poured into the economy to help battle the impact of the virus. For instance, if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the White House, but Democrats do not reclaim the Senate, he will likely have to compromise on a smaller stimulus package and would not be able to implement tax increases. If President Donald Trump is re-elected and faces a newly Democratic Senate alongside the Democratic House, he will likely face push back on many issues though they may agree on a large stimulus package. * > As of Friday, Biden was leading Trump in the polls by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of major polls. Democrats also appear likely to take the Senate, but some races are very tight. * > Bank of America strategists note that the Senate races are close with a few seats that could flip. Seven Republican seats are currently rated as toss-ups with four in battleground states, where they could be lost if there’s a strong Democratic surge. There could also be a clear majority, but still uncertainty in terms of final makeup. * > “The overall composition of the Senate is unlikely to be determined until sometime in January due to election rules in Georgia which stipulates the race goes to a run off if no candidates garners 50% majority in the general election and currently no candidate is projected” to hit that threshold, the BofA strategists wrote. * > The strategists say the timing of the results is unclear due to early voting but high volumes of mail-in ballots, which cannot be counted in some states until election day. * > “A short delay in the election result should have a trivial impact on the economy but a multi-week contested election could drag down H1 GDP growth by 0.5-1.0 pp,” according to BofA strategists. “Once there is a winner, the focus turns to stimulus.” * > # Watch bond yields > That could mean bond yields will continue their move higher in the coming week. Yields have been rising on the idea that there will be some kind of stimulus after the election, and it will mean more U.S. debt and higher interest rates. * > “We expect rates to shift higher by 5 to 25 bps after the election outcome is known due to expectations for fiscal stimulus and improved growth prospects,” the BofA strategists wrote. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.86% Friday. * > However, if the election outcome is not known for awhile, the strategists said a contested outcome could push the 10-year yield materially lower. * > If there is a contested election, the strategist expect stocks to trade lower, but it would be a buying opportunity since the market typically recovers from headline-related losses within six months. * > “We expect a clear outcome to be neutral to positive for the market in the near term, except under a Biden win with a split Congress, which could potentially lead to continued gridlock in fiscal stimulus talks,” the BofA strategists added. * > Besides the election, there is also a Fed meeting, expected to end Thursday with no new announcements though it is likely the Fed will emphasize it will keep policy easy for a long time as the economy heals. The October employment report is expected on Friday and is expected to show continued job gains, after September’s 661,000 nonfarm payrolls. * > Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equities strategist at Credit Suisse, does not expect the market to react much if the election outcome is as expected, with Biden winning and Democrats taking the Senate. * > “The most likely outcome is already discounted by the market. The best assumption is if you don’t have a big surprise, the market should do nothing,” Golub said, adding the most volatile week could be the one just ending. “This week is the one with the turmoil, and I don’t think the next week is the one where the market’s going to be crazy.” * > Golub said investors may be too worried about the election being unresolved and the real issue disturbing the market this past week is the growing spread of the virus. * > “There’s no rule we need to declare a victor,” said Golub. “We have four or five weeks. The market may not love that near-term indecision, but the system is set up to allow for it, and as long as things don’t go off the rails, and they really shouldn’t, this concern about a contested election is probably overblown as an investor issue.” * > Golub said there’s a greater chance that the winner of the presidency is known before the Senate. “The chances are that we’ll at least know directionally where the power sits, but that could take a little longer and the market may be a little uncomfortable with that,” he said. * > # Earnings reports > Dozens of companies report earnings in the week ahead, and Golub said corporate profits are a bright spot for the market. The third quarter results so far are showing earnings down about 10%, compared to earlier forecasts of more than 20%, according to Refinitiv. * > “The reality is the economy is robust. 55% of the market cap of the S&P has higher earnings in 2020 than in 2019. More than half the market is acting like there’s no recession, no downturn,” Golub said. * > Golub said both Trump and Biden would push for fiscal stimulus, but while the market is clear on where Trump stands it does not know that much about Biden, if he were to win. “It is going to take some time to get clarity on which of his policy initiatives are going to happen. I don’t believe he’s going to implement these tax increases he’s talking about right away. I think the economy is too frail,” said Golub. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/TQBrNag.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/LrQZHOj.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/WbqKDDT.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/zqi6l3G.png)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/9q0jEby.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/xGuEP7D.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/2SrRdkk.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/tCh05mj.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/qOJdagC.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KhE54Ws.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/rrDYFK6.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QEbWDb7.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/zBMyLqA.png)) * > # November Almanac: Usually a Top Month in Election Years > November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse. > November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA (since 1950), NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 2000 (since 1979) month. November is best for S&P 500 (since 1950) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/43b1cac3b88cfc6f79063d86ae9abfef/57e8d7f397fbeeb8-7f/s400x600/a8bff5e250ce7b9735197427f72d665b61fe0614.jpg)) > November is a mixed bag in presidential election years. DJIA has advanced in 10 of the last 17 election years since 1952 with an average gain of 1.7%. Significant DJIA declines occurred in 2008 (-5.3%) and 2000 (-5.1%). For S&P 500 November ranks best with a similar record to DJIA. NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are not as strong ranking #7, #3 and #6 respectively. Fewer years of data (12 for NASDAQ and 10 for Russell indices) combined with sizable losses in 2000 and 2008 drag down rankings and average gains when compared to DJIA and S&P 500. * > # Whatever the Outcome, Day Before Election Day Historically Bullish > Looking back at the last seventeen presidential elections since 1952, the day before Election Day has a clear bullish bias. DJIA and S&P 500 have declined just three times and average gains of 0.51% and 0.44% respectively. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are slightly weaker, but still bullish. Election Day (or the day after prior to 1980) leans bullish, but with a greater frequency of losses. Incumbent party victories are shaded in light grey. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/d030ea31abcb4bd298b596da0d2b2b4d/3d5b7e5afba3a9a5-14/s500x750/a8b43d243e3c57890dde8a0682726a1da587e5d2.jpg)) * > # GDP Bounces Back > The outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns triggered the largest quarter over-quarter decline in gross domestic product (GDP) since WWII, so perhaps it comes as no surprise that the following quarter tallied the sharpest rebound in that same time period. GDP expanded 33.1% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, ahead of Bloomberg consensus expectations of 32%, fueled by the continued reopening of businesses and reversing much of the economic fallout stemming from COVID-19-related lockdowns. > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, consumer spending—the largest contributor to GDP in the US and roughly 70% of economic output—rebounded in a powerful fashion in the third quarter. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i1.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/10.29.20-Blog-Chart.jpg?ssl=1)) > However, spending numbers were uneven, with a considerably larger portion spent on goods rather than services—consistent with the continued behavioral and business restriction effects on these industries. Further, the timing of spending was also fairly uneven, as much of the growth in consumer spending came in the early weeks of the third quarter and tapered off in recent weeks where the effects of fiscal stimulus and rising new COVID-19 cases influenced consumer behavior. > “GDP rebounded stronger than expected in the third quarter, but the big question on everyone’s mind is whether the economy can remain on firm ground in the fourth quarter and into 2021,” stated LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Barring a new round of fiscal stimulus, it’s likely that growth will taper off in the fourth quarter, but we still don’t expect a double-dip recession.” > Regardless of the state of economic momentum, it is remarkable that GDP is already only about 3.5% away from recovering the entire pandemic losses. The resilience of US consumers has been the top story of the recovery, even with the historic fiscal stimulus. > The surge in growth in the third quarter may also have political implications. As we noted in our recent Weekly Market Commentary: Are the Polls Wrong Again? the average GDP growth in the second and third quarters of election years can have predictive power for who wins the election, with stronger growth favoring incumbents. However, we also point out that recessions close to elections have favored challengers, sending some conflicting market signals heading into Election Day! > As the economy moves forward in the fourth quarter, we’ll continue to monitor real-time data indicators to gauge the impact of rising COVID-19 cases on consumer and business behavior. * > # Slight Dip In Consumer Confidence > Consumer Confidence for the month of October was released earlier today and showed a slight dip relative to September. The headline index dropped from 101.3 down to 100.9 compared to expectations for a reading of 102.0. Given the rising number of cases and the upcoming election, it's not too surprising to see confidence come in a bit, so a decline of this magnitude isn't all that concerning. What is notable, though, is that even though Consumer Confidence remains right near post-COVID highs, it hasn't bounced all that much off its lows. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-CC.png)) > Breaking out this month's report by the sentiment of consumers towards both how they feel now and what they expect in the future, the Present Situation Index rose from 98.9 up to 104.6 while the Expectations component dropped from 102.9 down to 98.4. The drop in the Expectations component of this month's report looks like it's a partial reflection of growing uncertainty regarding COVID and the election as we head into the colder months of November and December. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-CC-P-Exp.png)) > In looking at the spread between Present Conditions and Expectations, it moved back into positive territory this month after dropping deeply into negative territory earlier this year. What's interesting to note about current levels is that in every prior recession since the late 1960s, by the time the spread moved back into positive territory after turning negative, the recession was already well in the rearview mirror. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-CC-Spread.png)) > Sentiment towards jobs also suggests a relatively positive trend. At the current level of 26.5, the Jobs Plentiful index is still far from its 40+ reading before COVID, but it did increase again in October as it has now done in four of the last five months. While it's by no means a strong reading at current levels, it hasn't been getting worse either. Looking at past recessions, it wasn't until well after the recession ended that the Jobs Plentiful index started to rebound. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-CC-Jobs-plentiful.png)) * > # Industrials Malfunction > With poorly received earnings reports from 3M (MMM) and Caterpillar (CAT) and general weakness overall, Tuesday was just a bad day for the Industrials sector. Just five stocks in the sector were up on the day and the sector overall was down 2.2% compared to the S&P 500 which was down just 0.3%. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-Industrials-Sector-Perfoamnces.png)) > The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the S&P 500 and the Industrials sector over the last year. Positive readings indicate the S&P 500 outperforming the Industrials sector and negative readings indicate that the Industrials sector outperformed the S&P 500. With the S&P 500 outperforming the Industrials sector by 1.88 percentage points on Tuesday, it was the widest performance gap (in the S&P 500's favor) since 9/21. Even more notable, though, was the fact that there have only been three other days in the last year where the Industrials sector underperformed the S&P 500 by a wider margin. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-Industrials-Sector-Spread.png)) > For the sector as a whole, it currently finds itself in a precarious position. After breaking its uptrend off the March lows on 9/21, the Industrials sector bounced back and rallied back to its former uptrend line, and while it just recently made a post-COVID high, the rally ran out of steam right at the former uptrend line. In the pullback that has followed, the sector closed yesterday right at a secondary line of support from the June lows. If this level doesn't hold through today's close, the technical picture for the sector will look a lot different than the way it looked just a few weeks ago. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-Industrials.png)) * > # All or Nothing Days Back on the Rise > The S&P 500's A/D line for the day (number of advancing stocks minus number of declining stocks) currently stands at about -460, which would be the weakest one-day reading since June. Today's A/D reading also is notable in that it represents the tenth 'all or nothing' day for the S&P 500 since the index's last peak on 9/2. We consider 'all or nothing' days to be those days where the S&P 500's daily A/D reading is either above +400 or below -400. To put the frequency of 'all or nothing' days into perspective, while there have been ten in the last forty trading days, in the forty trading days before that there weren't any. > The chart below shows the percentage of 'all or nothing' days on a 50-day rolling basis. The current pace of 20% is still well off the extraordinary level of 44% we saw back in late April/early May, but it is still relatively high. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102820-AllorNothing-50.png)) > Including today, there have now been 41 'all or nothing' days so far in 2020. If the current pace for the entire year keeps up that will put us on pace for fifty days this year. If the current pace keeps up and we do reach 50 'all or nothing' days this year, it will be the third-highest annual total behind 2011 (70) and 2008 (52), but even if there isn't another 'all or nothing' day this year, 2020 would still rank fifth behind the years from 2008 through 2011. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102820-AllorNothing-All.png)) * > # Earnings and Economics Diverge > This earnings season, we have frequently mentioned how beat rates have continued to rise relentlessly. From our Earnings Explorer database, our 3-month rolling EPS beat rate currently stands at a record high of 78.19%. That is nearly 20 percentage points higher than the historical average of 59.37%. The sales beat rate is not at a record, but it too is elevated at 69.09% versus the historical average of 56.45%. That means that of the companies that have reported earnings over the past three months, a massive proportion are exceeding consensus sales and EPS estimates. > While earnings beat rates have continued to grind higher, economic data is another story. The Citi Economic Surprise Index basically tracks macroeconomic data and how it comes in relative to forecasts. Higher readings indicate the data is trending stronger than expected and vice versa for negative readings. With the unprecedented shock to macroeconomic data in 2020, this index for the United States plummeted, but that was followed by a sharp rebound to record highs. Although the index for the US remains higher than anything prior to the pandemic, it has been heading lower since the summer. In other words, economic data is still coming in better than expected but is not massively exceeding expectations to the degree it was back in the spring and early summer. > The two charts below compare EPS and revenue beat rates to the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Comparing the two series to the Citi Economic Surprise Index shows that while EPS beat rate has been somewhat connected (correlation: +0.325)) there is very little in the way of correlation between the Surprise Index and the revenue beat rate (+0.084). Given that EPS figures are typically easier to massage than revenues, that was a bit of a surprise. What is notable about the recent decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index is that in prior periods where it became elevated and then pulled back as it did in (2003, 2009, and 2018), the EPS beat rate typically didn't peak and start to trend lower for another few months. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102820-Citi-vs-Earn.png)) * ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/qOJdagC.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/9KQPNXR.png)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 11.2.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/pj7pysD.png)) > # Monday 11.2.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/h2HgKHB.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/DRjtGSM.png)) * > # Tuesday 11.3.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/aoPSp6k.png)) > # Tuesday 11.3.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/BKnNZhJ.png)) * > # Wednesday 11.4.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!](https://i.imgur.com/97DJGA7.png)) > # Wednesday 11.4.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/4k28zp5.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/lb9tHJr.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/i7l5LTf.png)) * > # Thursday 11.5.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/8prHmLC.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/jlZMuyc.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/Xs5XIA3.png)) > # Thursday 11.5.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/WX3Qbv9.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/kI5jFhr.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/u6ZNU50.png)) * > # Friday 11.6.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/aP1LaQn.png)) * > # Friday 11.6.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/k3lJ7Qz.png)) * > # PayPal $186.13 PayPal (PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Monday, November 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.95 per share on revenue of $5.40 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.76 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 58.33% with revenue increasing by 23.34%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% above its 200 day moving average of $152.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,377 contracts of the $210.00 call and 10,021 contracts of the $210.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PYPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Square, Inc. $154.88 Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:15 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $1.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.62% with revenue increasing by 57.13%. Short interest has decreased by 5.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.1% above its 200 day moving average of $106.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,158 contracts of the $155.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SQ&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $304.69 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.11 per share on revenue of $22.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.88% with revenue increasing by 37.47%. Short interest has increased by 25.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.8% above its 200 day moving average of $234.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 29, 2020 there was some notable buying of 35,528 contracts of the $420.00 call expiring on Friday, October 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BABA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Clorox Co. $207.25 Clorox Co. (CLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, November 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.34 per share on revenue of $1.74 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.50 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 47.17% with revenue increasing by 15.54%. Short interest has increased by 20.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% above its 200 day moving average of $199.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 885 contracts of the $187.50 put expiring on Friday, November 6, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=CLX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Roku Inc $202.40 Roku Inc (ROKU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $354.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.30) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 86.36% with revenue increasing by 35.84%. The stock has drifted higher by 26.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 45.4% above its 200 day moving average of $139.23. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,002 contracts of the $120.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 13.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.4% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ROKU&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Wayfair Inc. $248.03 Wayfair Inc. (W) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.80 per share on revenue of $3.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 137.04% with revenue increasing by 60.49%. Short interest has decreased by 14.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 34.7% above its 200 day moving average of $184.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 22, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,001 contracts of the $130.00 put expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 15.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=W&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Peloton Interactive $110.21 Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.13 per share on revenue of $727.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $720.00 million to $730.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 110.08% with revenue increasing by 219.08%. Short interest has increased by 99.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 94.6% above its 200 day moving average of $56.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,404 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.8% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PTON&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # QUALCOMM Incorporated $123.36 QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.22 per share on revenue of $5.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.05 to $1.25 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 74.29% with revenue increasing by 23.39%. Short interest has decreased by 10.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.1% above its 200 day moving average of $93.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 29, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,990 contracts of the $136.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=QCOM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Wingstop Inc. $116.33 Wingstop Inc. (WING) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Monday, November 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $63.60 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.43 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 60.00% with revenue increasing by 27.52%. Short interest has decreased by 12.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.9% below its 200 day moving average of $123.60. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=WING&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Skyworks Solutions, Inc. $141.29 Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, November 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.52 per share on revenue of $840.22 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.51 per share on revenue of $830.00 million to $850.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.70% with revenue increasing by 1.55%. Short interest has increased by 24.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.4% above its 200 day moving average of $122.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,358 contracts of the $149.00 call expiring on Friday, November 6, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SWKS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	36	bigbear0083	1,604,151,914	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/jlim4i/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
jlim4i	gap560d	Personally I'm not investing in anything until after the election.	7	TheBali	1,604,152,531	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 2nd, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading month ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 2nd, 2020. # Investors are hoping for a clear presidential and Senate election outcome to end the sell-off - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/30/investors-are-hoping-for-a-clear-presidential-and-senate-election-outcome-to-end-the-sell-off.html) *** > The best hope for markets in the week ahead is that there is a clear cut winner in Tuesday’s presidential election. * > The election looms large as the biggest wild card risk for markets, and there is a real concern that no outcome could lead to a period of uncertainty and turbulence for markets and the economy. On the other hand, some strategists say a clear winner and quick concession by the other candidate could lead to a relief rally. Also a worry is that Senate elections could be unresolved, which means it may not be known which party holds the majority. * > “If there’s no clear winner, it will be negative for risk assets...The market is really worried about not having clarity after the election. They’re worried about it dragging out four weeks as the results are contested,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The overall landscape is not a political one. It’s that we’re in a pandemic, and we don’t want an uncertain election outcome that leaves the country concerned about leadership.” * > Stocks closed out October on a sour note, losing about 6% for the week, the worst performance since March, when the pandemic first shut down the economy. Strategists say the coronavirus is again worrying the market, as major European countries go into partial lockdowns, and the U.S. faces record numbers of new cases. * > Lyngen said he does not expect the markets to react as much if it’s only the fate of the Senate that is undetermined. But that is still very important, and if it’s not clear which party has a majority for days or even weeks, that would cast doubt on the ability of whichever candidate wins the presidency to pursue their policy agenda. * > # Senate key for stimulus > The Senate is also key to how much money will be poured into the economy to help battle the impact of the virus. For instance, if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the White House, but Democrats do not reclaim the Senate, he will likely have to compromise on a smaller stimulus package and would not be able to implement tax increases. If President Donald Trump is re-elected and faces a newly Democratic Senate alongside the Democratic House, he will likely face push back on many issues though they may agree on a large stimulus package. * > As of Friday, Biden was leading Trump in the polls by 7.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of major polls. Democrats also appear likely to take the Senate, but some races are very tight. * > Bank of America strategists note that the Senate races are close with a few seats that could flip. Seven Republican seats are currently rated as toss-ups with four in battleground states, where they could be lost if there’s a strong Democratic surge. There could also be a clear majority, but still uncertainty in terms of final makeup. * > “The overall composition of the Senate is unlikely to be determined until sometime in January due to election rules in Georgia which stipulates the race goes to a run off if no candidates garners 50% majority in the general election and currently no candidate is projected” to hit that threshold, the BofA strategists wrote. * > The strategists say the timing of the results is unclear due to early voting but high volumes of mail-in ballots, which cannot be counted in some states until election day. * > “A short delay in the election result should have a trivial impact on the economy but a multi-week contested election could drag down H1 GDP growth by 0.5-1.0 pp,” according to BofA strategists. “Once there is a winner, the focus turns to stimulus.” * > # Watch bond yields > That could mean bond yields will continue their move higher in the coming week. Yields have been rising on the idea that there will be some kind of stimulus after the election, and it will mean more U.S. debt and higher interest rates. * > “We expect rates to shift higher by 5 to 25 bps after the election outcome is known due to expectations for fiscal stimulus and improved growth prospects,” the BofA strategists wrote. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.86% Friday. * > However, if the election outcome is not known for awhile, the strategists said a contested outcome could push the 10-year yield materially lower. * > If there is a contested election, the strategist expect stocks to trade lower, but it would be a buying opportunity since the market typically recovers from headline-related losses within six months. * > “We expect a clear outcome to be neutral to positive for the market in the near term, except under a Biden win with a split Congress, which could potentially lead to continued gridlock in fiscal stimulus talks,” the BofA strategists added. * > Besides the election, there is also a Fed meeting, expected to end Thursday with no new announcements though it is likely the Fed will emphasize it will keep policy easy for a long time as the economy heals. The October employment report is expected on Friday and is expected to show continued job gains, after September’s 661,000 nonfarm payrolls. * > Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equities strategist at Credit Suisse, does not expect the market to react much if the election outcome is as expected, with Biden winning and Democrats taking the Senate. * > “The most likely outcome is already discounted by the market. The best assumption is if you don’t have a big surprise, the market should do nothing,” Golub said, adding the most volatile week could be the one just ending. “This week is the one with the turmoil, and I don’t think the next week is the one where the market’s going to be crazy.” * > Golub said investors may be too worried about the election being unresolved and the real issue disturbing the market this past week is the growing spread of the virus. * > “There’s no rule we need to declare a victor,” said Golub. “We have four or five weeks. The market may not love that near-term indecision, but the system is set up to allow for it, and as long as things don’t go off the rails, and they really shouldn’t, this concern about a contested election is probably overblown as an investor issue.” * > Golub said there’s a greater chance that the winner of the presidency is known before the Senate. “The chances are that we’ll at least know directionally where the power sits, but that could take a little longer and the market may be a little uncomfortable with that,” he said. * > # Earnings reports > Dozens of companies report earnings in the week ahead, and Golub said corporate profits are a bright spot for the market. The third quarter results so far are showing earnings down about 10%, compared to earlier forecasts of more than 20%, according to Refinitiv. * > “The reality is the economy is robust. 55% of the market cap of the S&P has higher earnings in 2020 than in 2019. More than half the market is acting like there’s no recession, no downturn,” Golub said. * > Golub said both Trump and Biden would push for fiscal stimulus, but while the market is clear on where Trump stands it does not know that much about Biden, if he were to win. “It is going to take some time to get clarity on which of his policy initiatives are going to happen. I don’t believe he’s going to implement these tax increases he’s talking about right away. I think the economy is too frail,” said Golub. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/TQBrNag.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/LrQZHOj.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/WbqKDDT.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/zqi6l3G.png)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/9q0jEby.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/xGuEP7D.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/2SrRdkk.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/tCh05mj.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/qOJdagC.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KhE54Ws.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/rrDYFK6.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QEbWDb7.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/zBMyLqA.png)) * > # November Almanac: Usually a Top Month in Election Years > November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse. > November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA (since 1950), NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 2000 (since 1979) month. November is best for S&P 500 (since 1950) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/43b1cac3b88cfc6f79063d86ae9abfef/57e8d7f397fbeeb8-7f/s400x600/a8bff5e250ce7b9735197427f72d665b61fe0614.jpg)) > November is a mixed bag in presidential election years. DJIA has advanced in 10 of the last 17 election years since 1952 with an average gain of 1.7%. Significant DJIA declines occurred in 2008 (-5.3%) and 2000 (-5.1%). For S&P 500 November ranks best with a similar record to DJIA. NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are not as strong ranking #7, #3 and #6 respectively. Fewer years of data (12 for NASDAQ and 10 for Russell indices) combined with sizable losses in 2000 and 2008 drag down rankings and average gains when compared to DJIA and S&P 500. * > # Whatever the Outcome, Day Before Election Day Historically Bullish > Looking back at the last seventeen presidential elections since 1952, the day before Election Day has a clear bullish bias. DJIA and S&P 500 have declined just three times and average gains of 0.51% and 0.44% respectively. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are slightly weaker, but still bullish. Election Day (or the day after prior to 1980) leans bullish, but with a greater frequency of losses. Incumbent party victories are shaded in light grey. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/d030ea31abcb4bd298b596da0d2b2b4d/3d5b7e5afba3a9a5-14/s500x750/a8b43d243e3c57890dde8a0682726a1da587e5d2.jpg)) * > # GDP Bounces Back > The outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns triggered the largest quarter over-quarter decline in gross domestic product (GDP) since WWII, so perhaps it comes as no surprise that the following quarter tallied the sharpest rebound in that same time period. GDP expanded 33.1% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, ahead of Bloomberg consensus expectations of 32%, fueled by the continued reopening of businesses and reversing much of the economic fallout stemming from COVID-19-related lockdowns. > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, consumer spending—the largest contributor to GDP in the US and roughly 70% of economic output—rebounded in a powerful fashion in the third quarter. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i1.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/10.29.20-Blog-Chart.jpg?ssl=1)) > However, spending numbers were uneven, with a considerably larger portion spent on goods rather than services—consistent with the continued behavioral and business restriction effects on these industries. Further, the timing of spending was also fairly uneven, as much of the growth in consumer spending came in the early weeks of the third quarter and tapered off in recent weeks where the effects of fiscal stimulus and rising new COVID-19 cases influenced consumer behavior. > “GDP rebounded stronger than expected in the third quarter, but the big question on everyone’s mind is whether the economy can remain on firm ground in the fourth quarter and into 2021,” stated LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Barring a new round of fiscal stimulus, it’s likely that growth will taper off in the fourth quarter, but we still don’t expect a double-dip recession.” > Regardless of the state of economic momentum, it is remarkable that GDP is already only about 3.5% away from recovering the entire pandemic losses. The resilience of US consumers has been the top story of the recovery, even with the historic fiscal stimulus. > The surge in growth in the third quarter may also have political implications. As we noted in our recent Weekly Market Commentary: Are the Polls Wrong Again? the average GDP growth in the second and third quarters of election years can have predictive power for who wins the election, with stronger growth favoring incumbents. However, we also point out that recessions close to elections have favored challengers, sending some conflicting market signals heading into Election Day! > As the economy moves forward in the fourth quarter, we’ll continue to monitor real-time data indicators to gauge the impact of rising COVID-19 cases on consumer and business behavior. * > # Slight Dip In Consumer Confidence > Consumer Confidence for the month of October was released earlier today and showed a slight dip relative to September. The headline index dropped from 101.3 down to 100.9 compared to expectations for a reading of 102.0. Given the rising number of cases and the upcoming election, it's not too surprising to see confidence come in a bit, so a decline of this magnitude isn't all that concerning. What is notable, though, is that even though Consumer Confidence remains right near post-COVID highs, it hasn't bounced all that much off its lows. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-CC.png)) > Breaking out this month's report by the sentiment of consumers towards both how they feel now and what they expect in the future, the Present Situation Index rose from 98.9 up to 104.6 while the Expectations component dropped from 102.9 down to 98.4. The drop in the Expectations component of this month's report looks like it's a partial reflection of growing uncertainty regarding COVID and the election as we head into the colder months of November and December. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-CC-P-Exp.png)) > In looking at the spread between Present Conditions and Expectations, it moved back into positive territory this month after dropping deeply into negative territory earlier this year. What's interesting to note about current levels is that in every prior recession since the late 1960s, by the time the spread moved back into positive territory after turning negative, the recession was already well in the rearview mirror. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-CC-Spread.png)) > Sentiment towards jobs also suggests a relatively positive trend. At the current level of 26.5, the Jobs Plentiful index is still far from its 40+ reading before COVID, but it did increase again in October as it has now done in four of the last five months. While it's by no means a strong reading at current levels, it hasn't been getting worse either. Looking at past recessions, it wasn't until well after the recession ended that the Jobs Plentiful index started to rebound. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-CC-Jobs-plentiful.png)) * > # Industrials Malfunction > With poorly received earnings reports from 3M (MMM) and Caterpillar (CAT) and general weakness overall, Tuesday was just a bad day for the Industrials sector. Just five stocks in the sector were up on the day and the sector overall was down 2.2% compared to the S&P 500 which was down just 0.3%. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-Industrials-Sector-Perfoamnces.png)) > The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the S&P 500 and the Industrials sector over the last year. Positive readings indicate the S&P 500 outperforming the Industrials sector and negative readings indicate that the Industrials sector outperformed the S&P 500. With the S&P 500 outperforming the Industrials sector by 1.88 percentage points on Tuesday, it was the widest performance gap (in the S&P 500's favor) since 9/21. Even more notable, though, was the fact that there have only been three other days in the last year where the Industrials sector underperformed the S&P 500 by a wider margin. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-Industrials-Sector-Spread.png)) > For the sector as a whole, it currently finds itself in a precarious position. After breaking its uptrend off the March lows on 9/21, the Industrials sector bounced back and rallied back to its former uptrend line, and while it just recently made a post-COVID high, the rally ran out of steam right at the former uptrend line. In the pullback that has followed, the sector closed yesterday right at a secondary line of support from the June lows. If this level doesn't hold through today's close, the technical picture for the sector will look a lot different than the way it looked just a few weeks ago. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102720-Industrials.png)) * > # All or Nothing Days Back on the Rise > The S&P 500's A/D line for the day (number of advancing stocks minus number of declining stocks) currently stands at about -460, which would be the weakest one-day reading since June. Today's A/D reading also is notable in that it represents the tenth 'all or nothing' day for the S&P 500 since the index's last peak on 9/2. We consider 'all or nothing' days to be those days where the S&P 500's daily A/D reading is either above +400 or below -400. To put the frequency of 'all or nothing' days into perspective, while there have been ten in the last forty trading days, in the forty trading days before that there weren't any. > The chart below shows the percentage of 'all or nothing' days on a 50-day rolling basis. The current pace of 20% is still well off the extraordinary level of 44% we saw back in late April/early May, but it is still relatively high. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102820-AllorNothing-50.png)) > Including today, there have now been 41 'all or nothing' days so far in 2020. If the current pace for the entire year keeps up that will put us on pace for fifty days this year. If the current pace keeps up and we do reach 50 'all or nothing' days this year, it will be the third-highest annual total behind 2011 (70) and 2008 (52), but even if there isn't another 'all or nothing' day this year, 2020 would still rank fifth behind the years from 2008 through 2011. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102820-AllorNothing-All.png)) * > # Earnings and Economics Diverge > This earnings season, we have frequently mentioned how beat rates have continued to rise relentlessly. From our Earnings Explorer database, our 3-month rolling EPS beat rate currently stands at a record high of 78.19%. That is nearly 20 percentage points higher than the historical average of 59.37%. The sales beat rate is not at a record, but it too is elevated at 69.09% versus the historical average of 56.45%. That means that of the companies that have reported earnings over the past three months, a massive proportion are exceeding consensus sales and EPS estimates. > While earnings beat rates have continued to grind higher, economic data is another story. The Citi Economic Surprise Index basically tracks macroeconomic data and how it comes in relative to forecasts. Higher readings indicate the data is trending stronger than expected and vice versa for negative readings. With the unprecedented shock to macroeconomic data in 2020, this index for the United States plummeted, but that was followed by a sharp rebound to record highs. Although the index for the US remains higher than anything prior to the pandemic, it has been heading lower since the summer. In other words, economic data is still coming in better than expected but is not massively exceeding expectations to the degree it was back in the spring and early summer. > The two charts below compare EPS and revenue beat rates to the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Comparing the two series to the Citi Economic Surprise Index shows that while EPS beat rate has been somewhat connected (correlation: +0.325)) there is very little in the way of correlation between the Surprise Index and the revenue beat rate (+0.084). Given that EPS figures are typically easier to massage than revenues, that was a bit of a surprise. What is notable about the recent decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index is that in prior periods where it became elevated and then pulled back as it did in (2003, 2009, and 2018), the EPS beat rate typically didn't peak and start to trend lower for another few months. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/10/102820-Citi-vs-Earn.png)) * ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/qOJdagC.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/9KQPNXR.png)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 11.2.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/pj7pysD.png)) > # Monday 11.2.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/h2HgKHB.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/DRjtGSM.png)) * > # Tuesday 11.3.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/aoPSp6k.png)) > # Tuesday 11.3.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/BKnNZhJ.png)) * > # Wednesday 11.4.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!](https://i.imgur.com/97DJGA7.png)) > # Wednesday 11.4.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/4k28zp5.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/lb9tHJr.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/i7l5LTf.png)) * > # Thursday 11.5.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/8prHmLC.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/jlZMuyc.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/Xs5XIA3.png)) > # Thursday 11.5.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/WX3Qbv9.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/kI5jFhr.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/u6ZNU50.png)) * > # Friday 11.6.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/aP1LaQn.png)) * > # Friday 11.6.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/k3lJ7Qz.png)) * > # PayPal $186.13 PayPal (PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Monday, November 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.95 per share on revenue of $5.40 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.76 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 58.33% with revenue increasing by 23.34%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% above its 200 day moving average of $152.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,377 contracts of the $210.00 call and 10,021 contracts of the $210.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PYPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Square, Inc. $154.88 Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:15 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $1.99 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.62% with revenue increasing by 57.13%. Short interest has decreased by 5.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.1% above its 200 day moving average of $106.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,158 contracts of the $155.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SQ&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $304.69 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.11 per share on revenue of $22.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.88% with revenue increasing by 37.47%. Short interest has increased by 25.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.8% above its 200 day moving average of $234.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 29, 2020 there was some notable buying of 35,528 contracts of the $420.00 call expiring on Friday, October 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BABA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Clorox Co. $207.25 Clorox Co. (CLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, November 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.34 per share on revenue of $1.74 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.50 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 47.17% with revenue increasing by 15.54%. Short interest has increased by 20.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% above its 200 day moving average of $199.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 885 contracts of the $187.50 put expiring on Friday, November 6, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=CLX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Roku Inc $202.40 Roku Inc (ROKU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $354.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.30) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 86.36% with revenue increasing by 35.84%. The stock has drifted higher by 26.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 45.4% above its 200 day moving average of $139.23. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,002 contracts of the $120.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 13.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.4% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ROKU&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Wayfair Inc. $248.03 Wayfair Inc. (W) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.80 per share on revenue of $3.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 137.04% with revenue increasing by 60.49%. Short interest has decreased by 14.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 34.7% above its 200 day moving average of $184.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 22, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,001 contracts of the $130.00 put expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 15.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=W&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Peloton Interactive $110.21 Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.13 per share on revenue of $727.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $720.00 million to $730.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 110.08% with revenue increasing by 219.08%. Short interest has increased by 99.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 94.6% above its 200 day moving average of $56.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,404 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.8% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PTON&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # QUALCOMM Incorporated $123.36 QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.22 per share on revenue of $5.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.05 to $1.25 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 74.29% with revenue increasing by 23.39%. Short interest has decreased by 10.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.1% above its 200 day moving average of $93.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, October 29, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,990 contracts of the $136.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=QCOM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Wingstop Inc. $116.33 Wingstop Inc. (WING) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Monday, November 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $63.60 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.43 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 60.00% with revenue increasing by 27.52%. Short interest has decreased by 12.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 17.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.9% below its 200 day moving average of $123.60. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=WING&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * > # Skyworks Solutions, Inc. $141.29 Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, November 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.52 per share on revenue of $840.22 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.51 per share on revenue of $830.00 million to $850.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.70% with revenue increasing by 1.55%. Short interest has increased by 24.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.4% above its 200 day moving average of $122.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,358 contracts of the $149.00 call expiring on Friday, November 6, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SWKS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	36	bigbear0083	1,604,151,914	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/jlim4i/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
hh0zmk	fw7cqrh	Well im pretty fuckered here.. hold all my MGM and dont look at RH for a few months?	105	GottaPiss	1,593,292,598	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw8r0u1	Who needs casinos anymore? All the action is in the stock market.	16	Ledovi	1,593,325,015	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw7hlve	The casinos aren't all about gambling, they are about the conventions. I think that's where and when they make the most dollars CES is their largest. If that gets cancelled, then that would be a good time to know for sure that it will take a dive. As for shutting down the casinos again? I don't think it's going to happen. The Culinary Union appears to really control that city and they seem fine with the mandatory mask order...for now.	47	NaturalSalamander888	1,593,295,219	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw7kf3k	States should legalized online gambling right now and start taking some income. Instead RH traders will continue to jump on the market making it worse	39	flashfc	1,593,296,676	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw7dfhe	Hey what's more fun than gambling with your life?	33	upvotemeok	1,593,292,979	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw86c2z	I think for the US, we are not practicing containment of outbreak, we are pursuing a managed herd immunization so the key factor is medical capacity. We are not doing much testing and tracking, and the American culture is just not suitable to deal with virus outbreak like this. I can’t imagine rolling back the opening, just some mitigation measures.	5	sendokun	1,593,310,153	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw7svuu	This is dumb. We're seeing more new cases because they're broadening testing far beyond what NYC was doing in March. What you want to look out for is a rise of percent positive, and whether it forms a trend or a blip.	15	18845683	1,593,301,572	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw7w3jp	A case is not a hospitalization or death. Stop listening to the PanicPorn media.	12	ArgyleTheChauffeur	1,593,303,541	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw82bo7	All hype, they are just testing far more people, healthcare workers are getting tested weekly symptoms or not, don’t forget these tests provide a lot of false positives. Aka just keep buying	7	normallyjustreadhere	1,593,307,560	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
hh0zmk	fw7n3eu	The headlines are half-truths to invoke fear. We all know in March and April cases were way higher but we didn’t have widespread testing available. Honestly just stay neutral and be ready to capitalize off of people’s fear.	5	StevenSeagalFan	1,593,298,209	Las Vegas casinos are going to be in trouble - Nevada just doubled their previous record of virus cases	Please see my edit at the bottom of this post! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/florida-arizona-nevada-hit-daily-highs-for-covid-19-cases-idUSKBN23Y0MR "Nevada disclosed 1,099 new cases, double its previous high." At the height of the pandemic for New York, in the second half of March, they were averaging about 9k cases a day. New York has a population of 19.4M people, meaning roughly 1 new case every day for every 2,160 people in New York in March. Nevada, with 3M people, set a record for themselves of 1 new case for every 2,700 people. And the numbers in Nevada are increasing fast. Nevada could pass New York's worst day in per capita terms in a week. I just can't see the casinos there remaining open, and even if they do stay open, no one will want to visit from out of state. EDIT: Turns out the overly big jump on June 26 was due to data from lab reports dated 23 and 24 June being included in the 26 June total. However, the brand-new numbers reported for today, June 27th are likely a new record even though weekends are usually lower numbers. https://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/news-release/public-health-update-covid-19-case-increase/ "After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24." Original data from: https://nvhealthresponse.nv.gov/ 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 507 25-Jun : 381 26-Jun : 1099 27-Jun : 821 I manually adjusted the data, assuming a 1-day offset between lab report date and the date the info is reported by the state (moving 240 and 380 cases from June 26th to the 24th and 25th, respectively): 19-Jun : 445 20-Jun : 274 21-Jun : 330 22-Jun : 462 23-Jun : 355 24-Jun : 747 25-Jun : 761 26-Jun : 479 27-Jun : 821	2,016	quiethandle	1,593,290,158	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/hh0zmk/las_vegas_casinos_are_going_to_be_in_trouble/
g7tyb7	fokitun	Wow, this is so great. I read every word. It all makes so much sense. So do I buy calls or puts?	19	Wolfir	1,587,842,865	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020. # Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/stocks-face-headwinds-as-investors-look-forward-to-a-big-earnings-week-a-fed-meeting-and-state-reopenings.html) *** > The stock market is struggling to make headway, as a big week of events rolls around, including a Federal Reserve meeting, the first look at post-shutdown economic growth and earnings from more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies. * > It’s a busy week for earnings, and some of the biggest blue chips are likely to join the growing list of companies withdrawing guidance amid the uncertainty of how the coronavirus and shutdowns are impacting their business. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Boeing and McDonald’s are among about 140 S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter results. * > Investors will also be watching the progress of the reopening of business activity in some states, like Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and South Carolina. At the same time, President Donald Trump said he may extend social distancing guidelines into early summer. Many states, including the hardest hit, remain completely shut down. * > Stocks were higher Friday, but the major indices had their first negative week in three as oil prices cratered and then steadied in the mid-teens. The S&P 500 has been trading on both sides of the key 2,800 level, as investors focused on murky corporate outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the reopening of the economy. Even though several states are resuming some activities, Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen. * > On Friday, the S&P closed at 2,836, down 1.3% for the week. * > Earnings for the first quarter have been bleak so far, down about 14% based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Second quarter results are expected to be far worse, declining 32.2%. * > “If you take a look where the real battle is in the market, it’s a fundamental story,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “The fundamentals are that the market should be lower, and on the other hand, the Fed is kind of putting their thumb on the scale in favor of the market.” * > Golub said it’s the potential for recurrences of the outbreak that’s being watched to see if businesses can remain open once they start back up. “People are watching what’s going on in places like Georgia, but they’re also watching what’s going on in Singapore and places in Asia that are opening up,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s really one thing that really matters. It’s not the Fed. The virus is going to own the agenda, whether we want it to or not.” * > # Fed bazooka > The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while it’s not expected to take any new action, it will likely discuss the many programs it quickly rolled out to support the economy and provide liquidity. * > “I’m anticipating no actions in terms of anything with purchases or interest rate movements,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I think we’re going to hear a lot more in terms of their description of what’s working and the things that still need to happen.” * > Tilley said the Fed’s job is also to instill confidence, and its asset purchase and other programs to support mortgages, corporate credit and municipal bonds, helped bring back in spreads that had been widening out across the credit markets. “It looked like we were headed for a seizure in credit markets, but they’ve come back in,” he said, adding he expects the Fed to also discuss programs like its support for the small business lending program. * > Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to sound optimistic about the central bank’s ability to help the economy, despite the uncertainty as the economy falls into an unprecedented decline in the second quarter. Tilley said he expects the economy to contract in the second quarter by 40%. * > Golub said this Fed meeting isn’t as important as others have been, since the central bank has already taken so many extraordinary policy steps and promises to do more as needed. * > “The Fed has made it clear if they need to provide liquidity to the market, they’re not going to wait for a meeting to do it,” he said. “Whether you’re borrowing from a bank or whether you’re borrowing in the capital markets, that capital is available so the economy can move ... the net effect is it also pushes the stock market up.” * > # Economic impact > First quarter gross domestic product numbers are expected Wednesday, and it will be the first look at how the early weeks of the shutdown impacted the broader economy. Forecasts are wide ranging, and the consensus forecast from Refinitiv is now for a contraction of 4.1%. Economists expect the second quarter to take the biggest hit of the recession, and it is forecast by many to show a contraction of more than 30%. * > Some of the early second-quarter data will be released in the coming week. Vehicle sales slowed to a trickle in April, and auto makers shut down production. * > The impact of that should show up in Friday’s April vehicle sales and ISM manufacturing, but the single-most important data point will be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, expected again to show millions of workers signed up for unemployment benefits. * > So far, 26.5 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last five weeks, wiping out all the job gains made since the end of the Great Recession. The employment report for April will be released on May 8, and economists say unemployment will likely peak in April or May before falling off. * > “We’ll probably see an unemployment rate at 20% or a little higher,” Tilley said. * > # Earnings > Earnings reports are expected from a range of industries, such as tech, health care, energy and defense. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Humana and Anthem are among health care names reporting. Big oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both release results on Friday, and their comments on how they are reacting to the shocking decline in crude oil prices this past week will be important. * > An oil futures contract for May dove into negative territory Monday and Tuesday, as did prices in many spot markets. That contract expired Tuesday, and the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $16.94 per barrel Friday, down about 7.3% for the week and about $5 lower than the price of Brent futures. * > “The most important earnings story is not what happens this quarter, It’s how long does it take to get back to peak earnings again,” said Golub. “My estimate is this is going to take three years to get back to peak profits. But the estimates right now are reflecting that it’s going to turn back to normal by something closer to the third quarter of next year. I think that’s too optimistic.The second part of the earnings story is how fast estimates are coming down.” * > He said first quarter earnings per share look to be down a little more than 12%, though some estimates have them down 16% or 17%. “We had 10 very healthy weeks and three not healthy weeks. The fact you could have such a negative quarter with only three bad week, that’s really bad.” Golub said. His forecast is for a 40% decline in second quarter profits. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/3vJvFZR.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/B4Di7Fh.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/7XXBq3H.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QyE3rll.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jyp5KqQ.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/fCYKkgg.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/PdPKvec.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sEY6EDm.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/y2laKRP.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QuCVREP.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/gkpOUiT.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/GrUMf6m.png)) * # Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month > May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. > May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. > In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/fac23214c1353f0b68d7710f6f7886a1/2eed74513d6bc154-86/s400x600/2540f531fb63ceab611b44ad7e0a2c0165670319.jpg)) * # LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective > One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. > “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i2.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Picture-4.23.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling > The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? > “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Market-returns-4.20.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 > The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. > The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. > As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. > Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/2020dogs.png)) * # Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far > We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. > As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/avgearn.png)) * # Next Week's Economic Indicators > Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-1.png)) > Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-2.png)) * # Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) > The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. > In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/Earnings-table.png)) * # Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To > With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. > Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/042320-Gold.png)) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $AMZN > * $TSLA > * $MSFT > * $AAPL > * $AMD > * $BA > * $FB > * $LUV > * $MMM > * $GE > * $AAL > * $UPS > * $TWTR > * $PFE > * $CBSH > * $PEP > * $MA > * $GOOGL > * $GILD > * $SBUX > * $UAL > * $V > * $SPOT > * $MCD > * $XOM > * $F > * $CAT > * $TDOC > * $AMAT > * $AWI > * $CHKP > * $MRK > * $ABBV > * $WHR > * $QCOM > * $BP > * $KHC > * $CLX > * $HAS > * $ANTM > * $NOK > * $CMS > * $CNX > * $APRN *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lRp3xer.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!](https://i.imgur.com/Yw1LKpH.jpg)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HW4ersg.png)) > # Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/KnhCH1m.png)) * > # Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/XeUrTNF.png)) > # Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/20sK5un.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QXrGzmn.png)) * > # Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tSP1S0Y.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Sn4QllI.png)) > # Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/DhxQrOU.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/1CpjzdJ.png)) * > # Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/raeflTF.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/43jb0Pu.png)) > # Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/axhdXpO.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/wiL7F9e.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HZkJ2ai.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # Amazon.com, Inc. - > Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.35 per share on revenue of $73.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.81% with revenue increasing by 22.98%. Short interest has increased by 29.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,868.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,068 contracts of the $2,400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Tesla, Inc. $725.15 > Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.27) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.31% with revenue increasing by 25.73%. Short interest has decreased by 21.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.4% above its 200 day moving average of $415.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,971 contracts of the $800.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Microsoft Corp. $174.55 > Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,039 contracts of the $172.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Apple, Inc. $282.97 > Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $54.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.74 to $3.17 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.63% with revenue decreasing by 6.92%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $255.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,749 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $56.18 > Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 39.94%. Short interest has decreased by 24.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 54,202 contracts of the $55.00 call and 47,486 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Boeing Co. $128.98 > Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $2.04 per share on revenue of $17.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($2.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 164.56% with revenue decreasing by 25.08%. Short interest has increased by 85.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 58.5% below its 200 day moving average of $310.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 16,626 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Facebook Inc. $190.07 > Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $17.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 107.06% with revenue increasing by 16.80%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% below its 200 day moving average of $190.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Southwest Airlines Co. $29.33 > Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.48 per share on revenue of $5.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 168.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.70%. Short interest has decreased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,235 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # 3M Company $147.00 > 3M Company (MMM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $8.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.42% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% below its 200 day moving average of $161.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,493 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # General Electric Co. $6.26 > General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $20.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue decreasing by 24.14%. Short interest has decreased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,195 contracts of the $6.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	342	bigbear0083	1,587,823,206	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g7tyb7/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
g7tyb7	fojr70o	Thank you kind sir. Thinking of putting a few grand into Microsoft on hopes of an earnings beat boosting stock, thoughts?	26	northernwizard5	1,587,827,660	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020. # Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/stocks-face-headwinds-as-investors-look-forward-to-a-big-earnings-week-a-fed-meeting-and-state-reopenings.html) *** > The stock market is struggling to make headway, as a big week of events rolls around, including a Federal Reserve meeting, the first look at post-shutdown economic growth and earnings from more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies. * > It’s a busy week for earnings, and some of the biggest blue chips are likely to join the growing list of companies withdrawing guidance amid the uncertainty of how the coronavirus and shutdowns are impacting their business. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Boeing and McDonald’s are among about 140 S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter results. * > Investors will also be watching the progress of the reopening of business activity in some states, like Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and South Carolina. At the same time, President Donald Trump said he may extend social distancing guidelines into early summer. Many states, including the hardest hit, remain completely shut down. * > Stocks were higher Friday, but the major indices had their first negative week in three as oil prices cratered and then steadied in the mid-teens. The S&P 500 has been trading on both sides of the key 2,800 level, as investors focused on murky corporate outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the reopening of the economy. Even though several states are resuming some activities, Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen. * > On Friday, the S&P closed at 2,836, down 1.3% for the week. * > Earnings for the first quarter have been bleak so far, down about 14% based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Second quarter results are expected to be far worse, declining 32.2%. * > “If you take a look where the real battle is in the market, it’s a fundamental story,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “The fundamentals are that the market should be lower, and on the other hand, the Fed is kind of putting their thumb on the scale in favor of the market.” * > Golub said it’s the potential for recurrences of the outbreak that’s being watched to see if businesses can remain open once they start back up. “People are watching what’s going on in places like Georgia, but they’re also watching what’s going on in Singapore and places in Asia that are opening up,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s really one thing that really matters. It’s not the Fed. The virus is going to own the agenda, whether we want it to or not.” * > # Fed bazooka > The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while it’s not expected to take any new action, it will likely discuss the many programs it quickly rolled out to support the economy and provide liquidity. * > “I’m anticipating no actions in terms of anything with purchases or interest rate movements,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I think we’re going to hear a lot more in terms of their description of what’s working and the things that still need to happen.” * > Tilley said the Fed’s job is also to instill confidence, and its asset purchase and other programs to support mortgages, corporate credit and municipal bonds, helped bring back in spreads that had been widening out across the credit markets. “It looked like we were headed for a seizure in credit markets, but they’ve come back in,” he said, adding he expects the Fed to also discuss programs like its support for the small business lending program. * > Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to sound optimistic about the central bank’s ability to help the economy, despite the uncertainty as the economy falls into an unprecedented decline in the second quarter. Tilley said he expects the economy to contract in the second quarter by 40%. * > Golub said this Fed meeting isn’t as important as others have been, since the central bank has already taken so many extraordinary policy steps and promises to do more as needed. * > “The Fed has made it clear if they need to provide liquidity to the market, they’re not going to wait for a meeting to do it,” he said. “Whether you’re borrowing from a bank or whether you’re borrowing in the capital markets, that capital is available so the economy can move ... the net effect is it also pushes the stock market up.” * > # Economic impact > First quarter gross domestic product numbers are expected Wednesday, and it will be the first look at how the early weeks of the shutdown impacted the broader economy. Forecasts are wide ranging, and the consensus forecast from Refinitiv is now for a contraction of 4.1%. Economists expect the second quarter to take the biggest hit of the recession, and it is forecast by many to show a contraction of more than 30%. * > Some of the early second-quarter data will be released in the coming week. Vehicle sales slowed to a trickle in April, and auto makers shut down production. * > The impact of that should show up in Friday’s April vehicle sales and ISM manufacturing, but the single-most important data point will be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, expected again to show millions of workers signed up for unemployment benefits. * > So far, 26.5 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last five weeks, wiping out all the job gains made since the end of the Great Recession. The employment report for April will be released on May 8, and economists say unemployment will likely peak in April or May before falling off. * > “We’ll probably see an unemployment rate at 20% or a little higher,” Tilley said. * > # Earnings > Earnings reports are expected from a range of industries, such as tech, health care, energy and defense. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Humana and Anthem are among health care names reporting. Big oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both release results on Friday, and their comments on how they are reacting to the shocking decline in crude oil prices this past week will be important. * > An oil futures contract for May dove into negative territory Monday and Tuesday, as did prices in many spot markets. That contract expired Tuesday, and the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $16.94 per barrel Friday, down about 7.3% for the week and about $5 lower than the price of Brent futures. * > “The most important earnings story is not what happens this quarter, It’s how long does it take to get back to peak earnings again,” said Golub. “My estimate is this is going to take three years to get back to peak profits. But the estimates right now are reflecting that it’s going to turn back to normal by something closer to the third quarter of next year. I think that’s too optimistic.The second part of the earnings story is how fast estimates are coming down.” * > He said first quarter earnings per share look to be down a little more than 12%, though some estimates have them down 16% or 17%. “We had 10 very healthy weeks and three not healthy weeks. The fact you could have such a negative quarter with only three bad week, that’s really bad.” Golub said. His forecast is for a 40% decline in second quarter profits. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/3vJvFZR.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/B4Di7Fh.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/7XXBq3H.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QyE3rll.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jyp5KqQ.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/fCYKkgg.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/PdPKvec.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sEY6EDm.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/y2laKRP.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QuCVREP.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/gkpOUiT.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/GrUMf6m.png)) * # Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month > May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. > May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. > In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/fac23214c1353f0b68d7710f6f7886a1/2eed74513d6bc154-86/s400x600/2540f531fb63ceab611b44ad7e0a2c0165670319.jpg)) * # LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective > One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. > “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i2.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Picture-4.23.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling > The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? > “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Market-returns-4.20.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 > The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. > The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. > As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. > Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/2020dogs.png)) * # Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far > We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. > As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/avgearn.png)) * # Next Week's Economic Indicators > Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-1.png)) > Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-2.png)) * # Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) > The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. > In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/Earnings-table.png)) * # Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To > With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. > Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/042320-Gold.png)) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $AMZN > * $TSLA > * $MSFT > * $AAPL > * $AMD > * $BA > * $FB > * $LUV > * $MMM > * $GE > * $AAL > * $UPS > * $TWTR > * $PFE > * $CBSH > * $PEP > * $MA > * $GOOGL > * $GILD > * $SBUX > * $UAL > * $V > * $SPOT > * $MCD > * $XOM > * $F > * $CAT > * $TDOC > * $AMAT > * $AWI > * $CHKP > * $MRK > * $ABBV > * $WHR > * $QCOM > * $BP > * $KHC > * $CLX > * $HAS > * $ANTM > * $NOK > * $CMS > * $CNX > * $APRN *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lRp3xer.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!](https://i.imgur.com/Yw1LKpH.jpg)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HW4ersg.png)) > # Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/KnhCH1m.png)) * > # Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/XeUrTNF.png)) > # Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/20sK5un.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QXrGzmn.png)) * > # Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tSP1S0Y.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Sn4QllI.png)) > # Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/DhxQrOU.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/1CpjzdJ.png)) * > # Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/raeflTF.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/43jb0Pu.png)) > # Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/axhdXpO.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/wiL7F9e.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HZkJ2ai.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # Amazon.com, Inc. - > Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.35 per share on revenue of $73.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.81% with revenue increasing by 22.98%. Short interest has increased by 29.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,868.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,068 contracts of the $2,400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Tesla, Inc. $725.15 > Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.27) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.31% with revenue increasing by 25.73%. Short interest has decreased by 21.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.4% above its 200 day moving average of $415.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,971 contracts of the $800.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Microsoft Corp. $174.55 > Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,039 contracts of the $172.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Apple, Inc. $282.97 > Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $54.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.74 to $3.17 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.63% with revenue decreasing by 6.92%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $255.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,749 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $56.18 > Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 39.94%. Short interest has decreased by 24.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 54,202 contracts of the $55.00 call and 47,486 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Boeing Co. $128.98 > Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $2.04 per share on revenue of $17.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($2.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 164.56% with revenue decreasing by 25.08%. Short interest has increased by 85.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 58.5% below its 200 day moving average of $310.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 16,626 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Facebook Inc. $190.07 > Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $17.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 107.06% with revenue increasing by 16.80%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% below its 200 day moving average of $190.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Southwest Airlines Co. $29.33 > Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.48 per share on revenue of $5.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 168.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.70%. Short interest has decreased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,235 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # 3M Company $147.00 > 3M Company (MMM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $8.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.42% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% below its 200 day moving average of $161.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,493 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # General Electric Co. $6.26 > General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $20.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue decreasing by 24.14%. Short interest has decreased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,195 contracts of the $6.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	342	bigbear0083	1,587,823,206	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g7tyb7/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
g7tyb7	fokmar7	This is the ultimate reference guide for next week trading. Thank you	10	bamadesi	1,587,844,732	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020. # Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/stocks-face-headwinds-as-investors-look-forward-to-a-big-earnings-week-a-fed-meeting-and-state-reopenings.html) *** > The stock market is struggling to make headway, as a big week of events rolls around, including a Federal Reserve meeting, the first look at post-shutdown economic growth and earnings from more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies. * > It’s a busy week for earnings, and some of the biggest blue chips are likely to join the growing list of companies withdrawing guidance amid the uncertainty of how the coronavirus and shutdowns are impacting their business. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Boeing and McDonald’s are among about 140 S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter results. * > Investors will also be watching the progress of the reopening of business activity in some states, like Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and South Carolina. At the same time, President Donald Trump said he may extend social distancing guidelines into early summer. Many states, including the hardest hit, remain completely shut down. * > Stocks were higher Friday, but the major indices had their first negative week in three as oil prices cratered and then steadied in the mid-teens. The S&P 500 has been trading on both sides of the key 2,800 level, as investors focused on murky corporate outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the reopening of the economy. Even though several states are resuming some activities, Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen. * > On Friday, the S&P closed at 2,836, down 1.3% for the week. * > Earnings for the first quarter have been bleak so far, down about 14% based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Second quarter results are expected to be far worse, declining 32.2%. * > “If you take a look where the real battle is in the market, it’s a fundamental story,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “The fundamentals are that the market should be lower, and on the other hand, the Fed is kind of putting their thumb on the scale in favor of the market.” * > Golub said it’s the potential for recurrences of the outbreak that’s being watched to see if businesses can remain open once they start back up. “People are watching what’s going on in places like Georgia, but they’re also watching what’s going on in Singapore and places in Asia that are opening up,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s really one thing that really matters. It’s not the Fed. The virus is going to own the agenda, whether we want it to or not.” * > # Fed bazooka > The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while it’s not expected to take any new action, it will likely discuss the many programs it quickly rolled out to support the economy and provide liquidity. * > “I’m anticipating no actions in terms of anything with purchases or interest rate movements,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I think we’re going to hear a lot more in terms of their description of what’s working and the things that still need to happen.” * > Tilley said the Fed’s job is also to instill confidence, and its asset purchase and other programs to support mortgages, corporate credit and municipal bonds, helped bring back in spreads that had been widening out across the credit markets. “It looked like we were headed for a seizure in credit markets, but they’ve come back in,” he said, adding he expects the Fed to also discuss programs like its support for the small business lending program. * > Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to sound optimistic about the central bank’s ability to help the economy, despite the uncertainty as the economy falls into an unprecedented decline in the second quarter. Tilley said he expects the economy to contract in the second quarter by 40%. * > Golub said this Fed meeting isn’t as important as others have been, since the central bank has already taken so many extraordinary policy steps and promises to do more as needed. * > “The Fed has made it clear if they need to provide liquidity to the market, they’re not going to wait for a meeting to do it,” he said. “Whether you’re borrowing from a bank or whether you’re borrowing in the capital markets, that capital is available so the economy can move ... the net effect is it also pushes the stock market up.” * > # Economic impact > First quarter gross domestic product numbers are expected Wednesday, and it will be the first look at how the early weeks of the shutdown impacted the broader economy. Forecasts are wide ranging, and the consensus forecast from Refinitiv is now for a contraction of 4.1%. Economists expect the second quarter to take the biggest hit of the recession, and it is forecast by many to show a contraction of more than 30%. * > Some of the early second-quarter data will be released in the coming week. Vehicle sales slowed to a trickle in April, and auto makers shut down production. * > The impact of that should show up in Friday’s April vehicle sales and ISM manufacturing, but the single-most important data point will be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, expected again to show millions of workers signed up for unemployment benefits. * > So far, 26.5 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last five weeks, wiping out all the job gains made since the end of the Great Recession. The employment report for April will be released on May 8, and economists say unemployment will likely peak in April or May before falling off. * > “We’ll probably see an unemployment rate at 20% or a little higher,” Tilley said. * > # Earnings > Earnings reports are expected from a range of industries, such as tech, health care, energy and defense. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Humana and Anthem are among health care names reporting. Big oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both release results on Friday, and their comments on how they are reacting to the shocking decline in crude oil prices this past week will be important. * > An oil futures contract for May dove into negative territory Monday and Tuesday, as did prices in many spot markets. That contract expired Tuesday, and the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $16.94 per barrel Friday, down about 7.3% for the week and about $5 lower than the price of Brent futures. * > “The most important earnings story is not what happens this quarter, It’s how long does it take to get back to peak earnings again,” said Golub. “My estimate is this is going to take three years to get back to peak profits. But the estimates right now are reflecting that it’s going to turn back to normal by something closer to the third quarter of next year. I think that’s too optimistic.The second part of the earnings story is how fast estimates are coming down.” * > He said first quarter earnings per share look to be down a little more than 12%, though some estimates have them down 16% or 17%. “We had 10 very healthy weeks and three not healthy weeks. The fact you could have such a negative quarter with only three bad week, that’s really bad.” Golub said. His forecast is for a 40% decline in second quarter profits. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/3vJvFZR.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/B4Di7Fh.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/7XXBq3H.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QyE3rll.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jyp5KqQ.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/fCYKkgg.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/PdPKvec.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sEY6EDm.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/y2laKRP.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QuCVREP.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/gkpOUiT.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/GrUMf6m.png)) * # Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month > May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. > May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. > In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/fac23214c1353f0b68d7710f6f7886a1/2eed74513d6bc154-86/s400x600/2540f531fb63ceab611b44ad7e0a2c0165670319.jpg)) * # LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective > One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. > “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i2.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Picture-4.23.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling > The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? > “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Market-returns-4.20.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 > The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. > The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. > As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. > Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/2020dogs.png)) * # Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far > We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. > As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/avgearn.png)) * # Next Week's Economic Indicators > Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-1.png)) > Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-2.png)) * # Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) > The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. > In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/Earnings-table.png)) * # Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To > With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. > Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/042320-Gold.png)) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $AMZN > * $TSLA > * $MSFT > * $AAPL > * $AMD > * $BA > * $FB > * $LUV > * $MMM > * $GE > * $AAL > * $UPS > * $TWTR > * $PFE > * $CBSH > * $PEP > * $MA > * $GOOGL > * $GILD > * $SBUX > * $UAL > * $V > * $SPOT > * $MCD > * $XOM > * $F > * $CAT > * $TDOC > * $AMAT > * $AWI > * $CHKP > * $MRK > * $ABBV > * $WHR > * $QCOM > * $BP > * $KHC > * $CLX > * $HAS > * $ANTM > * $NOK > * $CMS > * $CNX > * $APRN *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lRp3xer.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!](https://i.imgur.com/Yw1LKpH.jpg)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HW4ersg.png)) > # Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/KnhCH1m.png)) * > # Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/XeUrTNF.png)) > # Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/20sK5un.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QXrGzmn.png)) * > # Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tSP1S0Y.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Sn4QllI.png)) > # Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/DhxQrOU.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/1CpjzdJ.png)) * > # Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/raeflTF.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/43jb0Pu.png)) > # Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/axhdXpO.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/wiL7F9e.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HZkJ2ai.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # Amazon.com, Inc. - > Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.35 per share on revenue of $73.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.81% with revenue increasing by 22.98%. Short interest has increased by 29.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,868.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,068 contracts of the $2,400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Tesla, Inc. $725.15 > Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.27) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.31% with revenue increasing by 25.73%. Short interest has decreased by 21.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.4% above its 200 day moving average of $415.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,971 contracts of the $800.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Microsoft Corp. $174.55 > Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,039 contracts of the $172.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Apple, Inc. $282.97 > Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $54.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.74 to $3.17 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.63% with revenue decreasing by 6.92%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $255.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,749 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $56.18 > Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 39.94%. Short interest has decreased by 24.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 54,202 contracts of the $55.00 call and 47,486 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Boeing Co. $128.98 > Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $2.04 per share on revenue of $17.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($2.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 164.56% with revenue decreasing by 25.08%. Short interest has increased by 85.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 58.5% below its 200 day moving average of $310.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 16,626 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Facebook Inc. $190.07 > Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $17.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 107.06% with revenue increasing by 16.80%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% below its 200 day moving average of $190.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Southwest Airlines Co. $29.33 > Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.48 per share on revenue of $5.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 168.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.70%. Short interest has decreased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,235 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # 3M Company $147.00 > 3M Company (MMM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $8.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.42% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% below its 200 day moving average of $161.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,493 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # General Electric Co. $6.26 > General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $20.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue decreasing by 24.14%. Short interest has decreased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,195 contracts of the $6.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	342	bigbear0083	1,587,823,206	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g7tyb7/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
g7tyb7	fok7tqv	Next weeks going to be a wild ride. I hold 5 of the companies that are posting earning this week.	9	OrFir99	1,587,837,012	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020. # Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/stocks-face-headwinds-as-investors-look-forward-to-a-big-earnings-week-a-fed-meeting-and-state-reopenings.html) *** > The stock market is struggling to make headway, as a big week of events rolls around, including a Federal Reserve meeting, the first look at post-shutdown economic growth and earnings from more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies. * > It’s a busy week for earnings, and some of the biggest blue chips are likely to join the growing list of companies withdrawing guidance amid the uncertainty of how the coronavirus and shutdowns are impacting their business. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Boeing and McDonald’s are among about 140 S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter results. * > Investors will also be watching the progress of the reopening of business activity in some states, like Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and South Carolina. At the same time, President Donald Trump said he may extend social distancing guidelines into early summer. Many states, including the hardest hit, remain completely shut down. * > Stocks were higher Friday, but the major indices had their first negative week in three as oil prices cratered and then steadied in the mid-teens. The S&P 500 has been trading on both sides of the key 2,800 level, as investors focused on murky corporate outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the reopening of the economy. Even though several states are resuming some activities, Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen. * > On Friday, the S&P closed at 2,836, down 1.3% for the week. * > Earnings for the first quarter have been bleak so far, down about 14% based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Second quarter results are expected to be far worse, declining 32.2%. * > “If you take a look where the real battle is in the market, it’s a fundamental story,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “The fundamentals are that the market should be lower, and on the other hand, the Fed is kind of putting their thumb on the scale in favor of the market.” * > Golub said it’s the potential for recurrences of the outbreak that’s being watched to see if businesses can remain open once they start back up. “People are watching what’s going on in places like Georgia, but they’re also watching what’s going on in Singapore and places in Asia that are opening up,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s really one thing that really matters. It’s not the Fed. The virus is going to own the agenda, whether we want it to or not.” * > # Fed bazooka > The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while it’s not expected to take any new action, it will likely discuss the many programs it quickly rolled out to support the economy and provide liquidity. * > “I’m anticipating no actions in terms of anything with purchases or interest rate movements,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I think we’re going to hear a lot more in terms of their description of what’s working and the things that still need to happen.” * > Tilley said the Fed’s job is also to instill confidence, and its asset purchase and other programs to support mortgages, corporate credit and municipal bonds, helped bring back in spreads that had been widening out across the credit markets. “It looked like we were headed for a seizure in credit markets, but they’ve come back in,” he said, adding he expects the Fed to also discuss programs like its support for the small business lending program. * > Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to sound optimistic about the central bank’s ability to help the economy, despite the uncertainty as the economy falls into an unprecedented decline in the second quarter. Tilley said he expects the economy to contract in the second quarter by 40%. * > Golub said this Fed meeting isn’t as important as others have been, since the central bank has already taken so many extraordinary policy steps and promises to do more as needed. * > “The Fed has made it clear if they need to provide liquidity to the market, they’re not going to wait for a meeting to do it,” he said. “Whether you’re borrowing from a bank or whether you’re borrowing in the capital markets, that capital is available so the economy can move ... the net effect is it also pushes the stock market up.” * > # Economic impact > First quarter gross domestic product numbers are expected Wednesday, and it will be the first look at how the early weeks of the shutdown impacted the broader economy. Forecasts are wide ranging, and the consensus forecast from Refinitiv is now for a contraction of 4.1%. Economists expect the second quarter to take the biggest hit of the recession, and it is forecast by many to show a contraction of more than 30%. * > Some of the early second-quarter data will be released in the coming week. Vehicle sales slowed to a trickle in April, and auto makers shut down production. * > The impact of that should show up in Friday’s April vehicle sales and ISM manufacturing, but the single-most important data point will be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, expected again to show millions of workers signed up for unemployment benefits. * > So far, 26.5 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last five weeks, wiping out all the job gains made since the end of the Great Recession. The employment report for April will be released on May 8, and economists say unemployment will likely peak in April or May before falling off. * > “We’ll probably see an unemployment rate at 20% or a little higher,” Tilley said. * > # Earnings > Earnings reports are expected from a range of industries, such as tech, health care, energy and defense. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Humana and Anthem are among health care names reporting. Big oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both release results on Friday, and their comments on how they are reacting to the shocking decline in crude oil prices this past week will be important. * > An oil futures contract for May dove into negative territory Monday and Tuesday, as did prices in many spot markets. That contract expired Tuesday, and the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $16.94 per barrel Friday, down about 7.3% for the week and about $5 lower than the price of Brent futures. * > “The most important earnings story is not what happens this quarter, It’s how long does it take to get back to peak earnings again,” said Golub. “My estimate is this is going to take three years to get back to peak profits. But the estimates right now are reflecting that it’s going to turn back to normal by something closer to the third quarter of next year. I think that’s too optimistic.The second part of the earnings story is how fast estimates are coming down.” * > He said first quarter earnings per share look to be down a little more than 12%, though some estimates have them down 16% or 17%. “We had 10 very healthy weeks and three not healthy weeks. The fact you could have such a negative quarter with only three bad week, that’s really bad.” Golub said. His forecast is for a 40% decline in second quarter profits. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/3vJvFZR.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/B4Di7Fh.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/7XXBq3H.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QyE3rll.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jyp5KqQ.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/fCYKkgg.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/PdPKvec.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sEY6EDm.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/y2laKRP.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QuCVREP.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/gkpOUiT.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/GrUMf6m.png)) * # Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month > May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. > May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. > In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/fac23214c1353f0b68d7710f6f7886a1/2eed74513d6bc154-86/s400x600/2540f531fb63ceab611b44ad7e0a2c0165670319.jpg)) * # LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective > One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. > “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i2.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Picture-4.23.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling > The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? > “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Market-returns-4.20.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 > The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. > The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. > As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. > Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/2020dogs.png)) * # Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far > We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. > As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/avgearn.png)) * # Next Week's Economic Indicators > Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-1.png)) > Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-2.png)) * # Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) > The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. > In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/Earnings-table.png)) * # Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To > With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. > Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/042320-Gold.png)) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $AMZN > * $TSLA > * $MSFT > * $AAPL > * $AMD > * $BA > * $FB > * $LUV > * $MMM > * $GE > * $AAL > * $UPS > * $TWTR > * $PFE > * $CBSH > * $PEP > * $MA > * $GOOGL > * $GILD > * $SBUX > * $UAL > * $V > * $SPOT > * $MCD > * $XOM > * $F > * $CAT > * $TDOC > * $AMAT > * $AWI > * $CHKP > * $MRK > * $ABBV > * $WHR > * $QCOM > * $BP > * $KHC > * $CLX > * $HAS > * $ANTM > * $NOK > * $CMS > * $CNX > * $APRN *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lRp3xer.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!](https://i.imgur.com/Yw1LKpH.jpg)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HW4ersg.png)) > # Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/KnhCH1m.png)) * > # Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/XeUrTNF.png)) > # Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/20sK5un.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QXrGzmn.png)) * > # Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tSP1S0Y.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Sn4QllI.png)) > # Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/DhxQrOU.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/1CpjzdJ.png)) * > # Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/raeflTF.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/43jb0Pu.png)) > # Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/axhdXpO.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/wiL7F9e.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HZkJ2ai.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # Amazon.com, Inc. - > Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.35 per share on revenue of $73.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.81% with revenue increasing by 22.98%. Short interest has increased by 29.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,868.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,068 contracts of the $2,400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Tesla, Inc. $725.15 > Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.27) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.31% with revenue increasing by 25.73%. Short interest has decreased by 21.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.4% above its 200 day moving average of $415.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,971 contracts of the $800.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Microsoft Corp. $174.55 > Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,039 contracts of the $172.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Apple, Inc. $282.97 > Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $54.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.74 to $3.17 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.63% with revenue decreasing by 6.92%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $255.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,749 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $56.18 > Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 39.94%. Short interest has decreased by 24.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 54,202 contracts of the $55.00 call and 47,486 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Boeing Co. $128.98 > Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $2.04 per share on revenue of $17.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($2.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 164.56% with revenue decreasing by 25.08%. Short interest has increased by 85.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 58.5% below its 200 day moving average of $310.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 16,626 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Facebook Inc. $190.07 > Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $17.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 107.06% with revenue increasing by 16.80%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% below its 200 day moving average of $190.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Southwest Airlines Co. $29.33 > Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.48 per share on revenue of $5.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 168.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.70%. Short interest has decreased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,235 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # 3M Company $147.00 > 3M Company (MMM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $8.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.42% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% below its 200 day moving average of $161.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,493 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # General Electric Co. $6.26 > General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $20.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue decreasing by 24.14%. Short interest has decreased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,195 contracts of the $6.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	342	bigbear0083	1,587,823,206	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g7tyb7/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
g7tyb7	fol610m	Dude this is GOLD. Keeps people like me updated without tracking ten different sources. It would be awesome if you could do this on a weekly basis - although I'm sure its a ton of effort to compile!	6	vincent_n	1,587,855,573	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020. # Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/stocks-face-headwinds-as-investors-look-forward-to-a-big-earnings-week-a-fed-meeting-and-state-reopenings.html) *** > The stock market is struggling to make headway, as a big week of events rolls around, including a Federal Reserve meeting, the first look at post-shutdown economic growth and earnings from more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies. * > It’s a busy week for earnings, and some of the biggest blue chips are likely to join the growing list of companies withdrawing guidance amid the uncertainty of how the coronavirus and shutdowns are impacting their business. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Boeing and McDonald’s are among about 140 S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter results. * > Investors will also be watching the progress of the reopening of business activity in some states, like Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and South Carolina. At the same time, President Donald Trump said he may extend social distancing guidelines into early summer. Many states, including the hardest hit, remain completely shut down. * > Stocks were higher Friday, but the major indices had their first negative week in three as oil prices cratered and then steadied in the mid-teens. The S&P 500 has been trading on both sides of the key 2,800 level, as investors focused on murky corporate outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the reopening of the economy. Even though several states are resuming some activities, Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen. * > On Friday, the S&P closed at 2,836, down 1.3% for the week. * > Earnings for the first quarter have been bleak so far, down about 14% based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Second quarter results are expected to be far worse, declining 32.2%. * > “If you take a look where the real battle is in the market, it’s a fundamental story,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “The fundamentals are that the market should be lower, and on the other hand, the Fed is kind of putting their thumb on the scale in favor of the market.” * > Golub said it’s the potential for recurrences of the outbreak that’s being watched to see if businesses can remain open once they start back up. “People are watching what’s going on in places like Georgia, but they’re also watching what’s going on in Singapore and places in Asia that are opening up,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s really one thing that really matters. It’s not the Fed. The virus is going to own the agenda, whether we want it to or not.” * > # Fed bazooka > The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while it’s not expected to take any new action, it will likely discuss the many programs it quickly rolled out to support the economy and provide liquidity. * > “I’m anticipating no actions in terms of anything with purchases or interest rate movements,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I think we’re going to hear a lot more in terms of their description of what’s working and the things that still need to happen.” * > Tilley said the Fed’s job is also to instill confidence, and its asset purchase and other programs to support mortgages, corporate credit and municipal bonds, helped bring back in spreads that had been widening out across the credit markets. “It looked like we were headed for a seizure in credit markets, but they’ve come back in,” he said, adding he expects the Fed to also discuss programs like its support for the small business lending program. * > Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to sound optimistic about the central bank’s ability to help the economy, despite the uncertainty as the economy falls into an unprecedented decline in the second quarter. Tilley said he expects the economy to contract in the second quarter by 40%. * > Golub said this Fed meeting isn’t as important as others have been, since the central bank has already taken so many extraordinary policy steps and promises to do more as needed. * > “The Fed has made it clear if they need to provide liquidity to the market, they’re not going to wait for a meeting to do it,” he said. “Whether you’re borrowing from a bank or whether you’re borrowing in the capital markets, that capital is available so the economy can move ... the net effect is it also pushes the stock market up.” * > # Economic impact > First quarter gross domestic product numbers are expected Wednesday, and it will be the first look at how the early weeks of the shutdown impacted the broader economy. Forecasts are wide ranging, and the consensus forecast from Refinitiv is now for a contraction of 4.1%. Economists expect the second quarter to take the biggest hit of the recession, and it is forecast by many to show a contraction of more than 30%. * > Some of the early second-quarter data will be released in the coming week. Vehicle sales slowed to a trickle in April, and auto makers shut down production. * > The impact of that should show up in Friday’s April vehicle sales and ISM manufacturing, but the single-most important data point will be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, expected again to show millions of workers signed up for unemployment benefits. * > So far, 26.5 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last five weeks, wiping out all the job gains made since the end of the Great Recession. The employment report for April will be released on May 8, and economists say unemployment will likely peak in April or May before falling off. * > “We’ll probably see an unemployment rate at 20% or a little higher,” Tilley said. * > # Earnings > Earnings reports are expected from a range of industries, such as tech, health care, energy and defense. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Humana and Anthem are among health care names reporting. Big oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both release results on Friday, and their comments on how they are reacting to the shocking decline in crude oil prices this past week will be important. * > An oil futures contract for May dove into negative territory Monday and Tuesday, as did prices in many spot markets. That contract expired Tuesday, and the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $16.94 per barrel Friday, down about 7.3% for the week and about $5 lower than the price of Brent futures. * > “The most important earnings story is not what happens this quarter, It’s how long does it take to get back to peak earnings again,” said Golub. “My estimate is this is going to take three years to get back to peak profits. But the estimates right now are reflecting that it’s going to turn back to normal by something closer to the third quarter of next year. I think that’s too optimistic.The second part of the earnings story is how fast estimates are coming down.” * > He said first quarter earnings per share look to be down a little more than 12%, though some estimates have them down 16% or 17%. “We had 10 very healthy weeks and three not healthy weeks. The fact you could have such a negative quarter with only three bad week, that’s really bad.” Golub said. His forecast is for a 40% decline in second quarter profits. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/3vJvFZR.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/B4Di7Fh.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/7XXBq3H.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QyE3rll.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jyp5KqQ.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/fCYKkgg.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/PdPKvec.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sEY6EDm.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/y2laKRP.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QuCVREP.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/gkpOUiT.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/GrUMf6m.png)) * # Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month > May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. > May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. > In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/fac23214c1353f0b68d7710f6f7886a1/2eed74513d6bc154-86/s400x600/2540f531fb63ceab611b44ad7e0a2c0165670319.jpg)) * # LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective > One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. > “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i2.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Picture-4.23.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling > The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? > “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Market-returns-4.20.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 > The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. > The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. > As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. > Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/2020dogs.png)) * # Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far > We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. > As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/avgearn.png)) * # Next Week's Economic Indicators > Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-1.png)) > Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-2.png)) * # Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) > The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. > In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/Earnings-table.png)) * # Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To > With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. > Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/042320-Gold.png)) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $AMZN > * $TSLA > * $MSFT > * $AAPL > * $AMD > * $BA > * $FB > * $LUV > * $MMM > * $GE > * $AAL > * $UPS > * $TWTR > * $PFE > * $CBSH > * $PEP > * $MA > * $GOOGL > * $GILD > * $SBUX > * $UAL > * $V > * $SPOT > * $MCD > * $XOM > * $F > * $CAT > * $TDOC > * $AMAT > * $AWI > * $CHKP > * $MRK > * $ABBV > * $WHR > * $QCOM > * $BP > * $KHC > * $CLX > * $HAS > * $ANTM > * $NOK > * $CMS > * $CNX > * $APRN *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lRp3xer.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!](https://i.imgur.com/Yw1LKpH.jpg)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HW4ersg.png)) > # Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/KnhCH1m.png)) * > # Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/XeUrTNF.png)) > # Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/20sK5un.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QXrGzmn.png)) * > # Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tSP1S0Y.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Sn4QllI.png)) > # Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/DhxQrOU.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/1CpjzdJ.png)) * > # Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/raeflTF.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/43jb0Pu.png)) > # Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/axhdXpO.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/wiL7F9e.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HZkJ2ai.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # Amazon.com, Inc. - > Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.35 per share on revenue of $73.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.81% with revenue increasing by 22.98%. Short interest has increased by 29.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,868.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,068 contracts of the $2,400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Tesla, Inc. $725.15 > Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.27) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.31% with revenue increasing by 25.73%. Short interest has decreased by 21.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.4% above its 200 day moving average of $415.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,971 contracts of the $800.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Microsoft Corp. $174.55 > Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,039 contracts of the $172.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Apple, Inc. $282.97 > Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $54.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.74 to $3.17 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.63% with revenue decreasing by 6.92%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $255.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,749 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $56.18 > Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 39.94%. Short interest has decreased by 24.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 54,202 contracts of the $55.00 call and 47,486 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Boeing Co. $128.98 > Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $2.04 per share on revenue of $17.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($2.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 164.56% with revenue decreasing by 25.08%. Short interest has increased by 85.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 58.5% below its 200 day moving average of $310.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 16,626 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Facebook Inc. $190.07 > Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $17.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 107.06% with revenue increasing by 16.80%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% below its 200 day moving average of $190.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Southwest Airlines Co. $29.33 > Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.48 per share on revenue of $5.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 168.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.70%. Short interest has decreased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,235 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # 3M Company $147.00 > 3M Company (MMM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $8.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.42% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% below its 200 day moving average of $161.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,493 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # General Electric Co. $6.26 > General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $20.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue decreasing by 24.14%. Short interest has decreased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,195 contracts of the $6.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	342	bigbear0083	1,587,823,206	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g7tyb7/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
g7tyb7	fokrqup	AMD sounds really interesting, may give it a gamble this week	5	SheetShitter	1,587,847,686	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020. # Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/stocks-face-headwinds-as-investors-look-forward-to-a-big-earnings-week-a-fed-meeting-and-state-reopenings.html) *** > The stock market is struggling to make headway, as a big week of events rolls around, including a Federal Reserve meeting, the first look at post-shutdown economic growth and earnings from more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies. * > It’s a busy week for earnings, and some of the biggest blue chips are likely to join the growing list of companies withdrawing guidance amid the uncertainty of how the coronavirus and shutdowns are impacting their business. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Boeing and McDonald’s are among about 140 S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter results. * > Investors will also be watching the progress of the reopening of business activity in some states, like Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and South Carolina. At the same time, President Donald Trump said he may extend social distancing guidelines into early summer. Many states, including the hardest hit, remain completely shut down. * > Stocks were higher Friday, but the major indices had their first negative week in three as oil prices cratered and then steadied in the mid-teens. The S&P 500 has been trading on both sides of the key 2,800 level, as investors focused on murky corporate outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the reopening of the economy. Even though several states are resuming some activities, Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen. * > On Friday, the S&P closed at 2,836, down 1.3% for the week. * > Earnings for the first quarter have been bleak so far, down about 14% based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Second quarter results are expected to be far worse, declining 32.2%. * > “If you take a look where the real battle is in the market, it’s a fundamental story,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “The fundamentals are that the market should be lower, and on the other hand, the Fed is kind of putting their thumb on the scale in favor of the market.” * > Golub said it’s the potential for recurrences of the outbreak that’s being watched to see if businesses can remain open once they start back up. “People are watching what’s going on in places like Georgia, but they’re also watching what’s going on in Singapore and places in Asia that are opening up,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s really one thing that really matters. It’s not the Fed. The virus is going to own the agenda, whether we want it to or not.” * > # Fed bazooka > The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while it’s not expected to take any new action, it will likely discuss the many programs it quickly rolled out to support the economy and provide liquidity. * > “I’m anticipating no actions in terms of anything with purchases or interest rate movements,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I think we’re going to hear a lot more in terms of their description of what’s working and the things that still need to happen.” * > Tilley said the Fed’s job is also to instill confidence, and its asset purchase and other programs to support mortgages, corporate credit and municipal bonds, helped bring back in spreads that had been widening out across the credit markets. “It looked like we were headed for a seizure in credit markets, but they’ve come back in,” he said, adding he expects the Fed to also discuss programs like its support for the small business lending program. * > Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to sound optimistic about the central bank’s ability to help the economy, despite the uncertainty as the economy falls into an unprecedented decline in the second quarter. Tilley said he expects the economy to contract in the second quarter by 40%. * > Golub said this Fed meeting isn’t as important as others have been, since the central bank has already taken so many extraordinary policy steps and promises to do more as needed. * > “The Fed has made it clear if they need to provide liquidity to the market, they’re not going to wait for a meeting to do it,” he said. “Whether you’re borrowing from a bank or whether you’re borrowing in the capital markets, that capital is available so the economy can move ... the net effect is it also pushes the stock market up.” * > # Economic impact > First quarter gross domestic product numbers are expected Wednesday, and it will be the first look at how the early weeks of the shutdown impacted the broader economy. Forecasts are wide ranging, and the consensus forecast from Refinitiv is now for a contraction of 4.1%. Economists expect the second quarter to take the biggest hit of the recession, and it is forecast by many to show a contraction of more than 30%. * > Some of the early second-quarter data will be released in the coming week. Vehicle sales slowed to a trickle in April, and auto makers shut down production. * > The impact of that should show up in Friday’s April vehicle sales and ISM manufacturing, but the single-most important data point will be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, expected again to show millions of workers signed up for unemployment benefits. * > So far, 26.5 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last five weeks, wiping out all the job gains made since the end of the Great Recession. The employment report for April will be released on May 8, and economists say unemployment will likely peak in April or May before falling off. * > “We’ll probably see an unemployment rate at 20% or a little higher,” Tilley said. * > # Earnings > Earnings reports are expected from a range of industries, such as tech, health care, energy and defense. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Humana and Anthem are among health care names reporting. Big oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both release results on Friday, and their comments on how they are reacting to the shocking decline in crude oil prices this past week will be important. * > An oil futures contract for May dove into negative territory Monday and Tuesday, as did prices in many spot markets. That contract expired Tuesday, and the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $16.94 per barrel Friday, down about 7.3% for the week and about $5 lower than the price of Brent futures. * > “The most important earnings story is not what happens this quarter, It’s how long does it take to get back to peak earnings again,” said Golub. “My estimate is this is going to take three years to get back to peak profits. But the estimates right now are reflecting that it’s going to turn back to normal by something closer to the third quarter of next year. I think that’s too optimistic.The second part of the earnings story is how fast estimates are coming down.” * > He said first quarter earnings per share look to be down a little more than 12%, though some estimates have them down 16% or 17%. “We had 10 very healthy weeks and three not healthy weeks. The fact you could have such a negative quarter with only three bad week, that’s really bad.” Golub said. His forecast is for a 40% decline in second quarter profits. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/3vJvFZR.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/B4Di7Fh.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/7XXBq3H.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QyE3rll.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jyp5KqQ.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/fCYKkgg.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/PdPKvec.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sEY6EDm.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/y2laKRP.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QuCVREP.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/gkpOUiT.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/GrUMf6m.png)) * # Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month > May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. > May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. > In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/fac23214c1353f0b68d7710f6f7886a1/2eed74513d6bc154-86/s400x600/2540f531fb63ceab611b44ad7e0a2c0165670319.jpg)) * # LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective > One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. > “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i2.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Picture-4.23.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling > The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? > “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Market-returns-4.20.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 > The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. > The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. > As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. > Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/2020dogs.png)) * # Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far > We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. > As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/avgearn.png)) * # Next Week's Economic Indicators > Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-1.png)) > Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-2.png)) * # Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) > The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. > In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/Earnings-table.png)) * # Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To > With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. > Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/042320-Gold.png)) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $AMZN > * $TSLA > * $MSFT > * $AAPL > * $AMD > * $BA > * $FB > * $LUV > * $MMM > * $GE > * $AAL > * $UPS > * $TWTR > * $PFE > * $CBSH > * $PEP > * $MA > * $GOOGL > * $GILD > * $SBUX > * $UAL > * $V > * $SPOT > * $MCD > * $XOM > * $F > * $CAT > * $TDOC > * $AMAT > * $AWI > * $CHKP > * $MRK > * $ABBV > * $WHR > * $QCOM > * $BP > * $KHC > * $CLX > * $HAS > * $ANTM > * $NOK > * $CMS > * $CNX > * $APRN *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lRp3xer.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!](https://i.imgur.com/Yw1LKpH.jpg)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HW4ersg.png)) > # Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/KnhCH1m.png)) * > # Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/XeUrTNF.png)) > # Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/20sK5un.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QXrGzmn.png)) * > # Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tSP1S0Y.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Sn4QllI.png)) > # Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/DhxQrOU.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/1CpjzdJ.png)) * > # Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/raeflTF.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/43jb0Pu.png)) > # Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/axhdXpO.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/wiL7F9e.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HZkJ2ai.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # Amazon.com, Inc. - > Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.35 per share on revenue of $73.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.81% with revenue increasing by 22.98%. Short interest has increased by 29.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,868.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,068 contracts of the $2,400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Tesla, Inc. $725.15 > Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.27) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.31% with revenue increasing by 25.73%. Short interest has decreased by 21.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.4% above its 200 day moving average of $415.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,971 contracts of the $800.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Microsoft Corp. $174.55 > Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,039 contracts of the $172.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Apple, Inc. $282.97 > Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $54.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.74 to $3.17 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.63% with revenue decreasing by 6.92%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $255.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,749 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $56.18 > Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 39.94%. Short interest has decreased by 24.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 54,202 contracts of the $55.00 call and 47,486 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Boeing Co. $128.98 > Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $2.04 per share on revenue of $17.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($2.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 164.56% with revenue decreasing by 25.08%. Short interest has increased by 85.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 58.5% below its 200 day moving average of $310.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 16,626 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Facebook Inc. $190.07 > Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $17.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 107.06% with revenue increasing by 16.80%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% below its 200 day moving average of $190.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Southwest Airlines Co. $29.33 > Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.48 per share on revenue of $5.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 168.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.70%. Short interest has decreased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,235 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # 3M Company $147.00 > 3M Company (MMM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $8.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.42% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% below its 200 day moving average of $161.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,493 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # General Electric Co. $6.26 > General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $20.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue decreasing by 24.14%. Short interest has decreased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,195 contracts of the $6.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	342	bigbear0083	1,587,823,206	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g7tyb7/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
g7tyb7	fokcdid	25 million unemployed, oil selling for negative $37 a barrel, the whole world shut down but somehow stocks go up ? None of that makes any sense whatsoever	22	bisonrosary	1,587,839,440	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020. # Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/stocks-face-headwinds-as-investors-look-forward-to-a-big-earnings-week-a-fed-meeting-and-state-reopenings.html) *** > The stock market is struggling to make headway, as a big week of events rolls around, including a Federal Reserve meeting, the first look at post-shutdown economic growth and earnings from more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies. * > It’s a busy week for earnings, and some of the biggest blue chips are likely to join the growing list of companies withdrawing guidance amid the uncertainty of how the coronavirus and shutdowns are impacting their business. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Boeing and McDonald’s are among about 140 S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter results. * > Investors will also be watching the progress of the reopening of business activity in some states, like Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and South Carolina. At the same time, President Donald Trump said he may extend social distancing guidelines into early summer. Many states, including the hardest hit, remain completely shut down. * > Stocks were higher Friday, but the major indices had their first negative week in three as oil prices cratered and then steadied in the mid-teens. The S&P 500 has been trading on both sides of the key 2,800 level, as investors focused on murky corporate outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the reopening of the economy. Even though several states are resuming some activities, Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen. * > On Friday, the S&P closed at 2,836, down 1.3% for the week. * > Earnings for the first quarter have been bleak so far, down about 14% based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Second quarter results are expected to be far worse, declining 32.2%. * > “If you take a look where the real battle is in the market, it’s a fundamental story,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “The fundamentals are that the market should be lower, and on the other hand, the Fed is kind of putting their thumb on the scale in favor of the market.” * > Golub said it’s the potential for recurrences of the outbreak that’s being watched to see if businesses can remain open once they start back up. “People are watching what’s going on in places like Georgia, but they’re also watching what’s going on in Singapore and places in Asia that are opening up,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s really one thing that really matters. It’s not the Fed. The virus is going to own the agenda, whether we want it to or not.” * > # Fed bazooka > The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while it’s not expected to take any new action, it will likely discuss the many programs it quickly rolled out to support the economy and provide liquidity. * > “I’m anticipating no actions in terms of anything with purchases or interest rate movements,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I think we’re going to hear a lot more in terms of their description of what’s working and the things that still need to happen.” * > Tilley said the Fed’s job is also to instill confidence, and its asset purchase and other programs to support mortgages, corporate credit and municipal bonds, helped bring back in spreads that had been widening out across the credit markets. “It looked like we were headed for a seizure in credit markets, but they’ve come back in,” he said, adding he expects the Fed to also discuss programs like its support for the small business lending program. * > Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to sound optimistic about the central bank’s ability to help the economy, despite the uncertainty as the economy falls into an unprecedented decline in the second quarter. Tilley said he expects the economy to contract in the second quarter by 40%. * > Golub said this Fed meeting isn’t as important as others have been, since the central bank has already taken so many extraordinary policy steps and promises to do more as needed. * > “The Fed has made it clear if they need to provide liquidity to the market, they’re not going to wait for a meeting to do it,” he said. “Whether you’re borrowing from a bank or whether you’re borrowing in the capital markets, that capital is available so the economy can move ... the net effect is it also pushes the stock market up.” * > # Economic impact > First quarter gross domestic product numbers are expected Wednesday, and it will be the first look at how the early weeks of the shutdown impacted the broader economy. Forecasts are wide ranging, and the consensus forecast from Refinitiv is now for a contraction of 4.1%. Economists expect the second quarter to take the biggest hit of the recession, and it is forecast by many to show a contraction of more than 30%. * > Some of the early second-quarter data will be released in the coming week. Vehicle sales slowed to a trickle in April, and auto makers shut down production. * > The impact of that should show up in Friday’s April vehicle sales and ISM manufacturing, but the single-most important data point will be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, expected again to show millions of workers signed up for unemployment benefits. * > So far, 26.5 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last five weeks, wiping out all the job gains made since the end of the Great Recession. The employment report for April will be released on May 8, and economists say unemployment will likely peak in April or May before falling off. * > “We’ll probably see an unemployment rate at 20% or a little higher,” Tilley said. * > # Earnings > Earnings reports are expected from a range of industries, such as tech, health care, energy and defense. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Humana and Anthem are among health care names reporting. Big oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both release results on Friday, and their comments on how they are reacting to the shocking decline in crude oil prices this past week will be important. * > An oil futures contract for May dove into negative territory Monday and Tuesday, as did prices in many spot markets. That contract expired Tuesday, and the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $16.94 per barrel Friday, down about 7.3% for the week and about $5 lower than the price of Brent futures. * > “The most important earnings story is not what happens this quarter, It’s how long does it take to get back to peak earnings again,” said Golub. “My estimate is this is going to take three years to get back to peak profits. But the estimates right now are reflecting that it’s going to turn back to normal by something closer to the third quarter of next year. I think that’s too optimistic.The second part of the earnings story is how fast estimates are coming down.” * > He said first quarter earnings per share look to be down a little more than 12%, though some estimates have them down 16% or 17%. “We had 10 very healthy weeks and three not healthy weeks. The fact you could have such a negative quarter with only three bad week, that’s really bad.” Golub said. His forecast is for a 40% decline in second quarter profits. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/3vJvFZR.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/B4Di7Fh.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/7XXBq3H.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QyE3rll.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jyp5KqQ.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/fCYKkgg.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/PdPKvec.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sEY6EDm.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/y2laKRP.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QuCVREP.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/gkpOUiT.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/GrUMf6m.png)) * # Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month > May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. > May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. > In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/fac23214c1353f0b68d7710f6f7886a1/2eed74513d6bc154-86/s400x600/2540f531fb63ceab611b44ad7e0a2c0165670319.jpg)) * # LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective > One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. > “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i2.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Picture-4.23.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling > The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? > “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Market-returns-4.20.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 > The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. > The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. > As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. > Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/2020dogs.png)) * # Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far > We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. > As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/avgearn.png)) * # Next Week's Economic Indicators > Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-1.png)) > Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-2.png)) * # Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) > The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. > In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/Earnings-table.png)) * # Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To > With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. > Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/042320-Gold.png)) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $AMZN > * $TSLA > * $MSFT > * $AAPL > * $AMD > * $BA > * $FB > * $LUV > * $MMM > * $GE > * $AAL > * $UPS > * $TWTR > * $PFE > * $CBSH > * $PEP > * $MA > * $GOOGL > * $GILD > * $SBUX > * $UAL > * $V > * $SPOT > * $MCD > * $XOM > * $F > * $CAT > * $TDOC > * $AMAT > * $AWI > * $CHKP > * $MRK > * $ABBV > * $WHR > * $QCOM > * $BP > * $KHC > * $CLX > * $HAS > * $ANTM > * $NOK > * $CMS > * $CNX > * $APRN *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lRp3xer.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!](https://i.imgur.com/Yw1LKpH.jpg)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HW4ersg.png)) > # Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/KnhCH1m.png)) * > # Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/XeUrTNF.png)) > # Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/20sK5un.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QXrGzmn.png)) * > # Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tSP1S0Y.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Sn4QllI.png)) > # Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/DhxQrOU.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/1CpjzdJ.png)) * > # Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/raeflTF.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/43jb0Pu.png)) > # Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/axhdXpO.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/wiL7F9e.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HZkJ2ai.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # Amazon.com, Inc. - > Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.35 per share on revenue of $73.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.81% with revenue increasing by 22.98%. Short interest has increased by 29.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,868.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,068 contracts of the $2,400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Tesla, Inc. $725.15 > Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.27) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.31% with revenue increasing by 25.73%. Short interest has decreased by 21.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.4% above its 200 day moving average of $415.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,971 contracts of the $800.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Microsoft Corp. $174.55 > Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,039 contracts of the $172.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Apple, Inc. $282.97 > Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $54.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.74 to $3.17 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.63% with revenue decreasing by 6.92%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $255.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,749 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $56.18 > Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 39.94%. Short interest has decreased by 24.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 54,202 contracts of the $55.00 call and 47,486 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Boeing Co. $128.98 > Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $2.04 per share on revenue of $17.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($2.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 164.56% with revenue decreasing by 25.08%. Short interest has increased by 85.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 58.5% below its 200 day moving average of $310.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 16,626 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Facebook Inc. $190.07 > Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $17.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 107.06% with revenue increasing by 16.80%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% below its 200 day moving average of $190.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Southwest Airlines Co. $29.33 > Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.48 per share on revenue of $5.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 168.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.70%. Short interest has decreased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,235 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # 3M Company $147.00 > 3M Company (MMM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $8.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.42% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% below its 200 day moving average of $161.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,493 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # General Electric Co. $6.26 > General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $20.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue decreasing by 24.14%. Short interest has decreased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,195 contracts of the $6.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	342	bigbear0083	1,587,823,206	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g7tyb7/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
g7tyb7	fok403i	Jesus christ, I love you so much !! I appreciated your efforts!!! THANK YOU!!!	5	Tact1cal_Pandaz	1,587,834,986	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 27th, 2020. # Stocks face headwinds as investors look forward to a big earnings week, a Fed meeting and state reopenings - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/stocks-face-headwinds-as-investors-look-forward-to-a-big-earnings-week-a-fed-meeting-and-state-reopenings.html) *** > The stock market is struggling to make headway, as a big week of events rolls around, including a Federal Reserve meeting, the first look at post-shutdown economic growth and earnings from more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies. * > It’s a busy week for earnings, and some of the biggest blue chips are likely to join the growing list of companies withdrawing guidance amid the uncertainty of how the coronavirus and shutdowns are impacting their business. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Boeing and McDonald’s are among about 140 S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter results. * > Investors will also be watching the progress of the reopening of business activity in some states, like Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and South Carolina. At the same time, President Donald Trump said he may extend social distancing guidelines into early summer. Many states, including the hardest hit, remain completely shut down. * > Stocks were higher Friday, but the major indices had their first negative week in three as oil prices cratered and then steadied in the mid-teens. The S&P 500 has been trading on both sides of the key 2,800 level, as investors focused on murky corporate outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the timing of the reopening of the economy. Even though several states are resuming some activities, Trump said he disagreed with Georgia’s plan to reopen. * > On Friday, the S&P closed at 2,836, down 1.3% for the week. * > Earnings for the first quarter have been bleak so far, down about 14% based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Second quarter results are expected to be far worse, declining 32.2%. * > “If you take a look where the real battle is in the market, it’s a fundamental story,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “The fundamentals are that the market should be lower, and on the other hand, the Fed is kind of putting their thumb on the scale in favor of the market.” * > Golub said it’s the potential for recurrences of the outbreak that’s being watched to see if businesses can remain open once they start back up. “People are watching what’s going on in places like Georgia, but they’re also watching what’s going on in Singapore and places in Asia that are opening up,” he said. “At the end of the day, there’s really one thing that really matters. It’s not the Fed. The virus is going to own the agenda, whether we want it to or not.” * > # Fed bazooka > The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and while it’s not expected to take any new action, it will likely discuss the many programs it quickly rolled out to support the economy and provide liquidity. * > “I’m anticipating no actions in terms of anything with purchases or interest rate movements,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “I think we’re going to hear a lot more in terms of their description of what’s working and the things that still need to happen.” * > Tilley said the Fed’s job is also to instill confidence, and its asset purchase and other programs to support mortgages, corporate credit and municipal bonds, helped bring back in spreads that had been widening out across the credit markets. “It looked like we were headed for a seizure in credit markets, but they’ve come back in,” he said, adding he expects the Fed to also discuss programs like its support for the small business lending program. * > Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to sound optimistic about the central bank’s ability to help the economy, despite the uncertainty as the economy falls into an unprecedented decline in the second quarter. Tilley said he expects the economy to contract in the second quarter by 40%. * > Golub said this Fed meeting isn’t as important as others have been, since the central bank has already taken so many extraordinary policy steps and promises to do more as needed. * > “The Fed has made it clear if they need to provide liquidity to the market, they’re not going to wait for a meeting to do it,” he said. “Whether you’re borrowing from a bank or whether you’re borrowing in the capital markets, that capital is available so the economy can move ... the net effect is it also pushes the stock market up.” * > # Economic impact > First quarter gross domestic product numbers are expected Wednesday, and it will be the first look at how the early weeks of the shutdown impacted the broader economy. Forecasts are wide ranging, and the consensus forecast from Refinitiv is now for a contraction of 4.1%. Economists expect the second quarter to take the biggest hit of the recession, and it is forecast by many to show a contraction of more than 30%. * > Some of the early second-quarter data will be released in the coming week. Vehicle sales slowed to a trickle in April, and auto makers shut down production. * > The impact of that should show up in Friday’s April vehicle sales and ISM manufacturing, but the single-most important data point will be Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, expected again to show millions of workers signed up for unemployment benefits. * > So far, 26.5 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last five weeks, wiping out all the job gains made since the end of the Great Recession. The employment report for April will be released on May 8, and economists say unemployment will likely peak in April or May before falling off. * > “We’ll probably see an unemployment rate at 20% or a little higher,” Tilley said. * > # Earnings > Earnings reports are expected from a range of industries, such as tech, health care, energy and defense. Merck, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Humana and Anthem are among health care names reporting. Big oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both release results on Friday, and their comments on how they are reacting to the shocking decline in crude oil prices this past week will be important. * > An oil futures contract for May dove into negative territory Monday and Tuesday, as did prices in many spot markets. That contract expired Tuesday, and the June futures contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at $16.94 per barrel Friday, down about 7.3% for the week and about $5 lower than the price of Brent futures. * > “The most important earnings story is not what happens this quarter, It’s how long does it take to get back to peak earnings again,” said Golub. “My estimate is this is going to take three years to get back to peak profits. But the estimates right now are reflecting that it’s going to turn back to normal by something closer to the third quarter of next year. I think that’s too optimistic.The second part of the earnings story is how fast estimates are coming down.” * > He said first quarter earnings per share look to be down a little more than 12%, though some estimates have them down 16% or 17%. “We had 10 very healthy weeks and three not healthy weeks. The fact you could have such a negative quarter with only three bad week, that’s really bad.” Golub said. His forecast is for a 40% decline in second quarter profits. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/3vJvFZR.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/B4Di7Fh.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/7XXBq3H.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QyE3rll.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jyp5KqQ.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/fCYKkgg.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/PdPKvec.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sEY6EDm.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/y2laKRP.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QuCVREP.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/gkpOUiT.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/GrUMf6m.png)) * # Election-year Mays: DJIA’s Second Worst Month > May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April in 69 years compared to a gain of just $9,537 for May-October. > May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of what we called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and two NASDAQ losses. > In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up eleven times in the past twenty-two years (three of the years had gains in excess of 4%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down – 11.9% in 2000, followed by twelve sizable gains in excess of 2.5% and five losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010. Election Year Mays rank at or near the bottom, registering net losses on DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000 and 2000 (since 1980). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/fac23214c1353f0b68d7710f6f7886a1/2eed74513d6bc154-86/s400x600/2540f531fb63ceab611b44ad7e0a2c0165670319.jpg)) * # LPL Office Talk: Putting The Rally In Perspective > One month ago today the S&P 500 Index bottomed after a vicious bear market. Was this the ultimate bottom? We’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is the rally we’ve seen over the past month is nearly as historic as the drop coming into it was. > “We recently had the best 20-day rally for the S&P 500 since March 2009 and one of the best ever,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at the previous best 20-day rallies, one thing is consistent: very strong returns going out a year.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10 previous best 20-day rallies for the S&P 500 saw continued gains after some near-term volatility. In fact, six months later stocks were higher 9 of 10 times and a full year later higher 10 of 10 times. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i2.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Picture-4.23.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Why The Recent Strength Has Bulls Smiling > The huge equity rally continued last week, with the S&P 500 Index up another 3%, on the heels of adding more than 15% in the previous week. The gain during the past two weeks of 15.5% was the greatest since October 1974. Taking it a step further, the 15 trading days ending April 14 saw the S&P 500 up more than 27%, one of the greatest rallies ever. What we’ve been seeing is truly historic, so the big question now is: What could happen next? > “This remarkable rally has caught most off guard, but what might surprise many to hear is more gains could eventually be in store in 2020,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When we’ve seen similar blasts of extreme short-term strength, stocks have been quite strong going out 6- to 12-months.” > As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 was up nine of 10 times six months later and higher every single time a year later after the previous best 15-day gains ever. Be aware though, some of the returns in the near-term were weak, suggesting a pullback after such a strong move is likely. Still, this much strength in such a short timeframe could very well suggest the rest of 2020 could have bulls smiling. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Market-returns-4.20.20.png?ssl=1)) * # Dogs of the Dow Performance So Far in 2020 > The average stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 16.24% on a total return basis so far in 2020. Below we take a look at how the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy has performed so far this year. > The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is a very passive approach that simply says to buy the 10 stocks in the Dow 30 that have the highest dividend yields at the start of each year. The Dogs list for 2020 was led by Dow Inc. (DOW) with a yield of 5.12% on January 1st. Exxon Mobil (XOM), IBM, Verizon (VZ), Chevron (CVX), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Walgreens (WBA), Cisco (CSCO), and Coca-Cola (KO) are the nine other members of the Dogs for 2020. > As shown in the table below, the Dogs are down an average of 19.37% on a total return basis in 2020, which is a little less than five percentage points worse than the 14.68% decline seen for the 20 non-Dogs this year. Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have been the two worst performing Dogs with respective YTD declines of 39.9% and 37.0%. Dow's dividend yield has risen from 5.12% up to 8.47%, while XOM's yield has risen from 4.99% up to 7.91%. There are no Dogs that are up on the year, but Verizon (VZ) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performers of the group with YTD declines of less than 5%. > Of the non-Dogs, Boeing (BA) has been by far the worst performer with a YTD decline of 60.01%. At the start of 2020, BA had a dividend yield of 2.52%, but that dividend has been suspended. JP Morgan (JPM), American Express (AXP) and Disney (DIS) have all fallen more than 30% YTD, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only three Dow stocks that are up on the year. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/2020dogs.png)) * # Investors Giving Companies a Pass on Earnings So Far > We're now two weeks into the Q1 2020 earnings season, and just over 200 companies have reported their numbers so far. The average one-day price change for the stocks that have reported earnings so far this season has been a gain of 0.89%. That's much stronger than the average one-day gain of 0.06% seen for all stocks that have reported earnings since 2001. > As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have averaged a one-day price gain of 2.16% on their earnings reaction days. That's stronger than the average one-day gain of 1.89% seen on earnings reaction days for all stocks that have reported since 2001. Stocks that have missed EPS estimates this season have seen a one-day decline of 0.72% on their earnings reaction days. Historically, the average stock that has missed EPS has fallen 3.56% on its earnings reaction day, so this season's decline of just 0.72% suggests that investors are basically giving a pass to companies missing estimates in Q1. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/avgearn.png)) * # Next Week's Economic Indicators > Even though most economic data releases this week that had forecasts exceeded those estimates (10 of 15), data continues to come in very weak. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity index started off the week coming in at –4.19 which was well below estimates of –3. Existing home sales followed up on Tuesday, and despite coming in above estimates, sales slowed considerably from February. Elsewhere in housing data, new home sales collapsed down to 627K SAAR compared to 765K last month. Meanwhile, February home prices showed some acceleration. Jobless claims also were better than expected, but they too remain at extremely elevated levels relative to the rest of history. Manufacturing data was a major area of weakness this week. Both the preliminary Markit PMI and Kansas City Fed reading fell significantly despite coming in better than forecast. Hard manufacturing data on Friday was likewise bad at the headline level though under the hood there were some silver linings. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-1.png)) > Turning to next week, like the earnings calendar, the economic calendar ramps up with a total of 34 releases. We will get the final two regional Federal Reserve indices from Dallas and Richmond on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, followed by the final Markit and ISM reading for April on Friday. Wednesday will be the most closely watched day of the week with the first release of Q1 GDP as well as an FOMC rate decision. Growth in the first quarter is expected to show a 3.8% contraction. Although no change in rates is being forecast, Fed Chair Powell’s following presser will likely be closely watched for a monetary policy update. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/eco-2.png)) * # Biggest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and More) > The earnings calendar has begun to ramp up over the past two weeks and over the next two weeks we will see peak earnings season. Next week there are a total of 784 companies scheduled to release earnings. Of those, there are 178 S&P 500 stocks, which is 35.% of the index. > In the table below we show the 30 largest stocks (by market cap) that are scheduled to report next week. None of the largest stocks report on Monday, but the two Dow pharmaceutical stocks, Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE), kick things off Tuesday morning. The trillion dollar market cap club will all report next week with Microsoft (MSFT) out with earnings Wednesday night and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) out the following evening. Two other notable releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will be the major payment processors Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). Friday will be capped off with two oil giants: Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Other honorable mentions not on this list reporting next week include industrial bell-weather Caterpillar (CAT), stocks likely benefiting from the COVID economy like Colgate Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX), and finally, some travel and leisure stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Royal Caribbean (RCL), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/Earnings-table.png)) * # Gold Bounces Right Where It Was Supposed To > With central banks around the world unleashing waves of liquidity, there have been heightened concerns that one result will be a decline in the purchasing power of our money. For that reason, a number of investors have been flocking to gold. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, gold prices had been in a solid uptrend, and while prices spiked as the crisis first began, they couldn't quite get above the $1,650 - $1,700 range. In mid-March even, prices plummeted with just about every other financial asset before quickly recovering. Once again, though, the rally stalled at resistance. This time around, though, the 50-day moving average was strong enough to provide support and after that test, gold finally got the long-awaited breakout that investors had been waiting for. > Gold's price spiked as high as $1,787 per ounce in mid-April before running out of momentum. When a stock or commodity breaks out above resistance to new highs and then pulls back, the former resistance level should act as support, and that is exactly what we saw this time around. This week, gold bounced right on cue at around $1,700 and has since rallied 2.6%. With the first test of support proving successful, look for gold to now establish a new range with a floor at around $1,700. At least that's what the technical analysis textbooks would say. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/04/042320-Gold.png)) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $AMZN > * $TSLA > * $MSFT > * $AAPL > * $AMD > * $BA > * $FB > * $LUV > * $MMM > * $GE > * $AAL > * $UPS > * $TWTR > * $PFE > * $CBSH > * $PEP > * $MA > * $GOOGL > * $GILD > * $SBUX > * $UAL > * $V > * $SPOT > * $MCD > * $XOM > * $F > * $CAT > * $TDOC > * $AMAT > * $AWI > * $CHKP > * $MRK > * $ABBV > * $WHR > * $QCOM > * $BP > * $KHC > * $CLX > * $HAS > * $ANTM > * $NOK > * $CMS > * $CNX > * $APRN *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KKMTHHH.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lRp3xer.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE MONDAY'S OPEN!](https://i.imgur.com/Yw1LKpH.jpg)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 4.27.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HW4ersg.png)) > # Monday 4.27.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/KnhCH1m.png)) * > # Tuesday 4.28.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/XeUrTNF.png)) > # Tuesday 4.28.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/20sK5un.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/QXrGzmn.png)) * > # Wednesday 4.29.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tSP1S0Y.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Sn4QllI.png)) > # Wednesday 4.29.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/DhxQrOU.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/1CpjzdJ.png)) * > # Thursday 4.30.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/raeflTF.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/43jb0Pu.png)) > # Thursday 4.30.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/axhdXpO.png)) > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/wiL7F9e.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/HZkJ2ai.png)) * > # Friday 5.1.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # Amazon.com, Inc. - > Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $6.35 per share on revenue of $73.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.81% with revenue increasing by 22.98%. Short interest has increased by 29.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,868.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,068 contracts of the $2,400.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Tesla, Inc. $725.15 > Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $5.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.27) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.31% with revenue increasing by 25.73%. Short interest has decreased by 21.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.4% above its 200 day moving average of $415.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,971 contracts of the $800.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Microsoft Corp. $174.55 > Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 25,039 contracts of the $172.50 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Apple, Inc. $282.97 > Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, April 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $54.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 29% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.74 to $3.17 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.63% with revenue decreasing by 6.92%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $255.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, April 23, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,749 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, May 1, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $56.18 > Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 39.94%. Short interest has decreased by 24.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.4% above its 200 day moving average of $40.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 54,202 contracts of the $55.00 call and 47,486 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Boeing Co. $128.98 > Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $2.04 per share on revenue of $17.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($2.21) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 11% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 164.56% with revenue decreasing by 25.08%. Short interest has increased by 85.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 60.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 58.5% below its 200 day moving average of $310.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 16,626 contracts of the $150.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Facebook Inc. $190.07 > Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $17.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.81 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 107.06% with revenue increasing by 16.80%. Short interest has increased by 20.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.3% below its 200 day moving average of $190.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $350.00 call expiring on Friday, January 21, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Southwest Airlines Co. $29.33 > Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.48 per share on revenue of $5.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings miss. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 168.57% with revenue decreasing by 2.70%. Short interest has decreased by 47.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.0% below its 200 day moving average of $50.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,235 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # 3M Company $147.00 > 3M Company (MMM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $8.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 9.42% with revenue increasing by 4.67%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.9% below its 200 day moving average of $161.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 6, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,493 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.0% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # General Electric Co. $6.26 > General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $20.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 23% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue decreasing by 24.14%. Short interest has decreased by 1.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,195 contracts of the $6.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	342	bigbear0083	1,587,823,206	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g7tyb7/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
g275f6	fnk8wul	I like most stocks in your portfolio but I do have 2 comments on it. Firstly, you've no stocks within the utility sector and are quite under represented within healthcare with just JnJ. Secondly, you have quite some stocks that overlap where I would suggest to do more DD and pick the one you believe is a winner (KO & PEP, UN & PG, SBUX & MCD, V & MA). I would recommend swapping two of the aforementioned overlapping stocks for ones in the utility and healthcare industry. Nevertheless, nice portfolio that I could see perform well in the long-term.	9	Alpicone	1,587,018,609	Portfolio too diversified? Please rate!	9,22% Microsoft 7,80% JPMorgan Chase 7,79% 3M 7,14% Coca-Cola 7,12% MSCI World 6,35% Johnson & Johnson 5,39% Unilever 5,10% SAP 4,42% Walt Disney 4,42% Realty Income Corporation 3,90% Procter & Gamble 3,90% Starbucks 3,81% McDonald's 3,79% Allianz 3,70% Royal Dutch Shell 3,66% Nike 3,56% Visa 3,05% Apple 2,90% Pepsico 2,76% MasterCard	15	alphavoice	1,587,007,477	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/g275f6/portfolio_too_diversified_please_rate/
fuhx37	fmczv5k	I bought in at $21.90 just before the market closed... Wow should I have waited	24	farhanorakzai	1,585,956,258	Warren Buffet on airline stocks	He's famous for his love of airlines, he owns more than 8% of the 4 biggest airline companies together. This week he sold 13M shares of DAL (58.9M remaining). That's a huge amount, if you know he bought more and more on the way down, starting at $46.40 per share. He sold at $24.19 each. He also sold 2.3M shares of LUV (51.3M remaining). This definitely doesn't reassure my holdings in DAL. He's in for long term, so shouldn't he be buying more, or at least hold it? I wonder why he sold at that loss. I mean, DAL made clear Q2 numbers will be even worse, but he should've expected that right? Referring to BRK.B of course, it's easier to picture the company as one person.	80	CapitalC5	1,585,952,714	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fuhx37/warren_buffet_on_airline_stocks/
fuhx37	fmdadi8	Now that Berkshire doesn't have a 10% or higher stake in the companies, they can buy or sell it without having to report it to the SEC within a couple days of doing so. They had to know that the news would send the stocks lower, and I also found it interesting that they dumped a lot more DAL, while only selling enough LUV to get just below 10% ownership. This makes me think they really didn't want to sell any more LUV than they had to in order to get below that 10% mark. This also makes me think that there is a different or additional motive for selling more DAL, because they didn't do the same thing and just barely get it below 10% ownership to dodge future SEC reporting. A lot of people are going to panic and start dumping Delta stock because Buffet sold a little of it, but he also kept quite a lot of it. Now, he could dump all that as well, with the added benefit of not having to report it, but I think that would be pretty stupid given how much the stock has dropped. I don't think Delta is going anywhere and will likely recover just fine. I'm sure Berkshire knows that as well. This leads me to believe that the actual intention of this move may be to drive DAL lower, get below 10% ownership to allow for discreet buying/selling, and then buy an even larger stake in the company at a deep discount. At 9.1% ownership, they have some room before they hit 10% and have to start reporting the purchases again (ie: tipping people off). If they buy more and break 10% again, the news of that will cause the stock to skyrocket, increasing the value of both their newly purchased and held shares. This would also explain the more precise sale of LUV if it was just done to make the DAL sale more convincing. It will be interesting to see how low it goes next week and how this whole move plays out, whether it is an elaborate stock play or just a simple redistribution of holdings. Regardless of what Buffet does with the rest of his shares, I'll likely be buying more DAL and thanking him for the discount.	31	JowDones7	1,585,962,976	Warren Buffet on airline stocks	He's famous for his love of airlines, he owns more than 8% of the 4 biggest airline companies together. This week he sold 13M shares of DAL (58.9M remaining). That's a huge amount, if you know he bought more and more on the way down, starting at $46.40 per share. He sold at $24.19 each. He also sold 2.3M shares of LUV (51.3M remaining). This definitely doesn't reassure my holdings in DAL. He's in for long term, so shouldn't he be buying more, or at least hold it? I wonder why he sold at that loss. I mean, DAL made clear Q2 numbers will be even worse, but he should've expected that right? Referring to BRK.B of course, it's easier to picture the company as one person.	80	CapitalC5	1,585,952,714	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fuhx37/warren_buffet_on_airline_stocks/
fuhx37	fmd1muo	Where can I see his most recent purchases?	7	vovr	1,585,957,346	Warren Buffet on airline stocks	He's famous for his love of airlines, he owns more than 8% of the 4 biggest airline companies together. This week he sold 13M shares of DAL (58.9M remaining). That's a huge amount, if you know he bought more and more on the way down, starting at $46.40 per share. He sold at $24.19 each. He also sold 2.3M shares of LUV (51.3M remaining). This definitely doesn't reassure my holdings in DAL. He's in for long term, so shouldn't he be buying more, or at least hold it? I wonder why he sold at that loss. I mean, DAL made clear Q2 numbers will be even worse, but he should've expected that right? Referring to BRK.B of course, it's easier to picture the company as one person.	80	CapitalC5	1,585,952,714	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fuhx37/warren_buffet_on_airline_stocks/
fuhx37	fmcwnw0	Worrisome, I have a small position (228 @ ~$21) and this might be signaling that Buffet suspects a bailout with government take over or new issued debt at obscene rates.	5	andreas-mgtow	1,585,954,335	Warren Buffet on airline stocks	He's famous for his love of airlines, he owns more than 8% of the 4 biggest airline companies together. This week he sold 13M shares of DAL (58.9M remaining). That's a huge amount, if you know he bought more and more on the way down, starting at $46.40 per share. He sold at $24.19 each. He also sold 2.3M shares of LUV (51.3M remaining). This definitely doesn't reassure my holdings in DAL. He's in for long term, so shouldn't he be buying more, or at least hold it? I wonder why he sold at that loss. I mean, DAL made clear Q2 numbers will be even worse, but he should've expected that right? Referring to BRK.B of course, it's easier to picture the company as one person.	80	CapitalC5	1,585,952,714	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fuhx37/warren_buffet_on_airline_stocks/
fuhx37	fmcvgp2	Delta and southwest are the top most airlines I believe they can’t go out of business. Yes their credit line takes hit but with the help of banks they should be able to withstand the situation.	16	devopsy	1,585,953,636	Warren Buffet on airline stocks	He's famous for his love of airlines, he owns more than 8% of the 4 biggest airline companies together. This week he sold 13M shares of DAL (58.9M remaining). That's a huge amount, if you know he bought more and more on the way down, starting at $46.40 per share. He sold at $24.19 each. He also sold 2.3M shares of LUV (51.3M remaining). This definitely doesn't reassure my holdings in DAL. He's in for long term, so shouldn't he be buying more, or at least hold it? I wonder why he sold at that loss. I mean, DAL made clear Q2 numbers will be even worse, but he should've expected that right? Referring to BRK.B of course, it's easier to picture the company as one person.	80	CapitalC5	1,585,952,714	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fuhx37/warren_buffet_on_airline_stocks/
fu7yk6	fmb6lit	Markets going up. Bad news fuels injection into the markets. I wouldn’t be surprised to see today go up. We gotta wait for a random day without any news for the market to shit itself randomly.	9	AstroSolutions	1,585,919,684	Friday brings 1000000 world cases and a spike in unemployment	Friday brings us 1000000 worldwide cases, over 50000 deaths, start to the SBA loan program and unemployment for March. Unemployment jumped to 4.4%, with U6 unemployment up to 8.7% and Nonfarm payrolls down -700000. All of these numbers were bigger than expected, with broad layoffs in all industries and sectors. Global stock markets are relatively calm compared to other Friday’s during this crises. In Asia, Japan and South Korea finished almost neutral, while China was slightly down, -0.5%. Europe started in the red over 1%, but as trading has continued at this time 8 30AM ET, they have recovered some of their losses. British FTSE is down 0.5%, French CAC down 0.2%, while the German DAX has turned positive +0.4%. The US futures have followed the global markets, going down around 1% in the early hours of the morning and regaining some of these losses after European trading started. At this time they are down around 0.5%, after being positive for a couple of minutes around 8AM. The coronavirus outbreak is still spreading and the US is contributing the most to the new case count. Yesterday it had almost 30000 new cases, up 10% from the day before. The President invoked the Defense Production Act to press more companies, especially 3M to ramp up production of necessary materials since the stock piles are running out. If the numbers continue to grow at this rate, we could see ventilator shortages and escalation of the emergency. Hopefully this will not happen. Economic data from Europe this morning was very week, with PMI’s from Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the EU all missed expectations, down in the low 30’s and high 20’s. This signal significant economic decline. In the USA, the Small Business Administration will start the loan programs to help the economy. After the unemployment numbers hit there was the same reaction to the jobless claims numbers yesterday and last week. A spike of 1% in the next 3 minutes. I will not go into the logic of this, since there is absolutely no logic but that is what is happening. For trading today, I do not recommend getting at the open, let the algorithms do their thing. After this in the afternoon I will be looking for a decline and try to take advantage of it. There is a lot of long positions out there that could cover from weekend risk and this should bring the market down. Good luck!	31	aleksandarslvk	1,585,918,685	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fu7yk6/friday_brings_1000000_world_cases_and_a_spike_in/
fu7yk6	fmb6l0n	Markets green!!!! Unemployment = good for markets /s MM looking like idiots propping this market up, fooling no one at this point	14	hitemwithahook	1,585,919,675	Friday brings 1000000 world cases and a spike in unemployment	Friday brings us 1000000 worldwide cases, over 50000 deaths, start to the SBA loan program and unemployment for March. Unemployment jumped to 4.4%, with U6 unemployment up to 8.7% and Nonfarm payrolls down -700000. All of these numbers were bigger than expected, with broad layoffs in all industries and sectors. Global stock markets are relatively calm compared to other Friday’s during this crises. In Asia, Japan and South Korea finished almost neutral, while China was slightly down, -0.5%. Europe started in the red over 1%, but as trading has continued at this time 8 30AM ET, they have recovered some of their losses. British FTSE is down 0.5%, French CAC down 0.2%, while the German DAX has turned positive +0.4%. The US futures have followed the global markets, going down around 1% in the early hours of the morning and regaining some of these losses after European trading started. At this time they are down around 0.5%, after being positive for a couple of minutes around 8AM. The coronavirus outbreak is still spreading and the US is contributing the most to the new case count. Yesterday it had almost 30000 new cases, up 10% from the day before. The President invoked the Defense Production Act to press more companies, especially 3M to ramp up production of necessary materials since the stock piles are running out. If the numbers continue to grow at this rate, we could see ventilator shortages and escalation of the emergency. Hopefully this will not happen. Economic data from Europe this morning was very week, with PMI’s from Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the EU all missed expectations, down in the low 30’s and high 20’s. This signal significant economic decline. In the USA, the Small Business Administration will start the loan programs to help the economy. After the unemployment numbers hit there was the same reaction to the jobless claims numbers yesterday and last week. A spike of 1% in the next 3 minutes. I will not go into the logic of this, since there is absolutely no logic but that is what is happening. For trading today, I do not recommend getting at the open, let the algorithms do their thing. After this in the afternoon I will be looking for a decline and try to take advantage of it. There is a lot of long positions out there that could cover from weekend risk and this should bring the market down. Good luck!	31	aleksandarslvk	1,585,918,685	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fu7yk6/friday_brings_1000000_world_cases_and_a_spike_in/
fqciwg	flprqdu	What does everyone think of 3M as a stock investment?	99	throwaway2134274	1,585,366,974	How 3M Plans to Make More Than a Billion Masks By End of Year	https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-25/3m-doubled-production-of-n95-face-masks-to-fight-coronavirus 3M can’t save the day on its own, but it’s promising a remarkably large contribution. The company has in two months doubled global production of N95 masks to about 100 million a month, and it’s planning to invest in new equipment to push annual mask production to 2 billion within 12 months.	376	coolcomfort123	1,585,366,463	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fqciwg/how_3m_plans_to_make_more_than_a_billion_masks_by/
fqciwg	flqif5c	Where do they make the masks? Is that in their factories around the world and how many of those are in the US?	11	v101Tdr	1,585,396,038	How 3M Plans to Make More Than a Billion Masks By End of Year	https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-25/3m-doubled-production-of-n95-face-masks-to-fight-coronavirus 3M can’t save the day on its own, but it’s promising a remarkably large contribution. The company has in two months doubled global production of N95 masks to about 100 million a month, and it’s planning to invest in new equipment to push annual mask production to 2 billion within 12 months.	376	coolcomfort123	1,585,366,463	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fqciwg/how_3m_plans_to_make_more_than_a_billion_masks_by/
fqciwg	flqluft	I hope their masks are better than the earplugs they made...	5	Is12345aweakpassword	1,585,399,514	How 3M Plans to Make More Than a Billion Masks By End of Year	https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-25/3m-doubled-production-of-n95-face-masks-to-fight-coronavirus 3M can’t save the day on its own, but it’s promising a remarkably large contribution. The company has in two months doubled global production of N95 masks to about 100 million a month, and it’s planning to invest in new equipment to push annual mask production to 2 billion within 12 months.	376	coolcomfort123	1,585,366,463	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fqciwg/how_3m_plans_to_make_more_than_a_billion_masks_by/
fnjcce	fl9uh4a	Are we near the bottom now with the FED announcing UNLIMITED FUNDS for asset/Corp debt buyback?	10	anon4secret	1,584,969,597	Today's Stock Market News [Monday, March 23rd, 2020]	#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market movers and news this AM- ***** #[Today's Top Headlines for Monday, March 23rd, 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-march-23-2020.html) > * U.S. stock futures turned strongly positive Monday morning after the Federal Reserve pledged asset purchases with no limit to support markets. Dow futures hit their 5% “limit down” overnight, and were off 600-points at one stage Monday morning, as a massive coronavirus funding package failed a key Senate procedural vote Sunday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked another 900 points or 4.5% on Friday, bringing the weekly decline to over 17% for the worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. Ahead of Monday’s session, the Dow was off more than 35% from last month’s record highs. The New York Stock Exchange’s trading floor will be close starting Monday. The NYSE will go to fully electronic trading. The 10-year Treasury yield, which popped back above 1% last week, was below that level early Monday. ***** > * Top-level White House and congressional negotiators burned the midnight oil over the now-nearly $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package. Democrats blocked the bill in Sunday’s vote, saying it did too much to bail out companies and not enough to help workers. Several GOP senators, including Rand Paul, who tested positive for the coronavirus, were not present to vote. Others, such as Mitt Romney, were in quarantine as a precaution. The Federal Reserve and Treasury are working on financing programs that could be worth $4 trillion. Goldman Sachs upgraded shares of Boeing, which is hoping for a bailout. Boeing stock has dropped 80% from recent highs on the dual crises of the outbreak and the grounding of its 737 Max. ***** > * The United States has the third most coronavirus cases in the world, with over 35,000 and 471 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. More than half the U.S. cases are in New York, where the death toll increased to 153. Washington state has the second-most cases, with nearly 2,000 confirmed and 95 deaths. New Jersey, California and Illinois round out the top five states. President Donald Trump on Sunday activated the National Guard in New York, Washington state and California in order to combat the spread of the coronavirus. New York plans to run a clinical trial, beginning Tuesday, of a treatment regimen of antimalarial hydroxychloroquine and antibiotic azithromycin, a drug cocktail that has shown promise in fighting the coronavirus. ***** > * Global coronavirus cases topped 343,000, with 14,789 deaths and over 98,800 recoveries. China, where the outbreak started in December, still has the most cases at over 81,400. China’s 3,274 deaths are second to Italy’s 5,476 deaths. Italy is second in total cases at over 59,100. The U.S., Spain and Germany round out the top five countries. German Chancellor Angela Merkel went into quarantine over the weekend after contact with a doctor who tested positive for the virus. The German government is set to unveil major stimulus measures. Pressure mounts to cancel the Tokyo summer Olympics, set to begin at the end of July. Canada said it won’t send teams to compete. Local media reports indicate that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering a delay. ***** > * Cisco Systems is committing $225 million to assist in efforts aimed at combating the coronavirus while the rest of Silicon Valley also initiates an investment blitz. 3M said it will supply New York and Seattle with a half-million N95 respirator masks to address the ongoing shortage of health-care equipment. Merck said it will supply New York City with a half-million masks. Chinese billionaire and Alibaba founder Jack Ma sent to Africa 5.4 million face masks, over 1 million testing kits, 40,000 sets of protective clothing and 60,000 protective face shields. BlackRock is committing $50 million in outbreak relief. *** #STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY: ######([CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)) * #LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP: ######([CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/YiUb9Sc.png)) * #TODAY'S MARKET MAP: ######([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx)) * #LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS: ######([CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/bOU6Ci7.png)) * #TODAY'S S&P SECTORS: ######([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)) * #TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR: ######([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/nuU9Bbc.png)) * #THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR: ######([CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/8KStTCM.png)) * #THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S: ######([CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/aUBjBP0.png)) *** #THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR: ($MU $LULU $NKE $PAYS $SIG $PAYX $GME $ONTX $CSIQ $JT $INFO $GO $WGO $LX $SCVL $SNX $HOME $BWAY $AEYE $KBH $RKDA $FDS $ERJ $PRGS $OPGN $SCS $NEOG $PUMP $HYRE $AIR $MYOS $LIQT $SAIC $SCWX $ESLT $VTSI $OCGN $QIWI $WOR $TNP $HTHT) ######([CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/K1bLbWQ.png)) ***** #THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR: () ######([CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]()) N/A. *** #EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY: ######([CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/fCml2B8.png)) * #EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY: ######([CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/CKRCtux.png)) * #FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES: ######([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/LJgR6Qi.png)) ######([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/3ihOUVn.png)) ######([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/LM2t3xD.png)) ######([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #4!](https://i.imgur.com/0OcCxG9.png)) * #FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS: ######([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/C6SXax7.png)) * #TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR: ######([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/VMeruGD.png)) ######([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/j9L8SpP.png)) ######([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/kAxCPYy.png)) *** #THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS: * NFLX * MMM * PCG * AME * ITCI * GDX * CAT * URGN * MYGN * EVBG *** #THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS: ######(source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-boeing-deere-amazon-netflix-apple-more.html)) * > Boeing (BA) – Boeing was upgraded to “buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs, which said Boeing will remain a going concern and that flight travel will be as popular as ever once COVID-19 is resolved. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** BA > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/BA)) *** > Coca-Cola (KO) – Coca-Cola was upgraded to “overweight” from “neutral” at JPMorgan Chase, which points to rebound prospects post-COVID-19 and the idea that consensus estimates for revenue and profit are conservative. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** KO > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=KO&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/KO)) *** > Deere (DE) – The heavy equipment maker withdrew its financial outlook for 2020 due to the virus outbreak, and is temporarily shutting down some operations. It is continuing to operate in the U.S. and globally to the extent possible. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** DE > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=DE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/DE)) *** > Amazon.com (AMZN) – Amazon is raising overtime pay for warehouse workers amid a surge in online shopping. Amazon’s move follows similar action from rival Walmart (WMT), which raised the minimum wage for e-commerce warehouse workers. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** AMZN > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/AMZN)) *** > Danaher (DHR) – Danaher’s Cepheid unit received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for its rapid coronavirus diagnostic test, the first of its kind. The test can deliver results in about 45 minutes, compared to lab results which can take days. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** DHR > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=DHR&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/DHR)) *** > Netflix (NFLX) – Netflix was upgraded to “outperform” from “neutral” at Baird, which thinks the video streaming service will benefit from at least 2 factors: more people at home due to the coronavirus outbreak, and acceleration of cord-cutting due to the lack of live sports on TV. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** NFLX > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=NFLX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/NFLX)) *** > Apple (AAPL) – Apple dropped a two-device limit on online iPhone purchases, just days after instituting that limit. Apple brick-and-mortar stores outside China remain closed due to the coronavirus outbreak. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** AAPL > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/AAPL)) *** > Newmont (NEM) – Newmont withdrew its 2020 outlook, with the mining company planning to defer some of its production to 2021. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** NEM > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=NEM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/NEM)) *** > Occidental Petroleum (OXY) – Occidental is near a settlement with activist investor Carl Icahn, according to The Wall Street Journal. Under the proposed deal, two Icahn allies would receive seats on the Occidental board, and a third independent director would be mutually agreed upon by Icahn and Occidental. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** OXY > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=OXY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/OXY)) *** > MGM Resorts (MGM) – The casino operator named Bill Hornbuckle – the president of its international division – as acting chief executive officer. Jim Murren stepped down as chairman and CEO over the weekend, following last month’s announcement that Murren would vacate that position. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** MGM > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MGM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MGM)) *** > Gilead Sciences (GILD) – The drugmaker put emergency access to its experimental coronavirus drug remdesivir on hold due to overwhelming demand. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** GILD > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GILD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GILD)) *** > Best Buy (BBY) – The electronics retailer withdrew its financial guidance for the current quarter and the fiscal year, due to uncertainty related to the virus outbreak. It is also suspending all share buybacks and is shifting to curbside service only for its stores. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** BBY > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BBY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/BBY)) *** > Starbucks (SBUX) – The coffee chain is closing most of its company cafes across North America for two weeks, limiting service to drive-through. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** SBUX > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SBUX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/SBUX)) *** > Tiffany (TIF) – French luxury goods maker LVMH denied last week’s reports that it is mulling buying shares of Tiffany on the open market, saying it is sticking with the takeover agreement signed in late 2019. Reports last week had said LVMH was considering open market purchases of Tiffany shares, since they are now selling for less than the agreed-upon takeover price. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** TIF > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TIF&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/TIF)) *** > Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer is closing its flagship-branded stores until April 3, to help stop the spread of the coronavirus. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** BBBY > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BBBY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/BBBY)) *** > Marriott (MAR), (HLT) – These and other hotel companies are placing tens of thousands of workers on furlough, as travel dries up in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak. > #STOCK SYMBOL:** MAR > * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MAR&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l) > ######([CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MAR)) *** #DISCUSS! What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks? * # I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Monday, March 23rd, 2020! :)**	44	bigbear0083	1,584,967,464	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fnjcce/todays_stock_market_news_monday_march_23rd_2020/
feidn2	fjo6sjv	MMM and SYK because they probably have the greatest logistically supply chains to make it happen quickly.	5	slinkystaircase	1,583,521,693	500 million mask gov. contract companies?	The gov. will officially announce a bid for 500 million masks due to the corona virus on March 11th. My question is, besides 3M, what companies do you think will be good to invest in before the contract? \\\MASKS MUST BE MADE IN THE USA, MOST LIKELY WILL BE A SPLIT CONTRACT\\\ \-INO- Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc \-3M \-SYK-Stryker Corporation \-KRMD-Repro-Med Systems \-SONVY-Sonova	11	Adambombdls	1,583,521,627	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/feidn2/500_million_mask_gov_contract_companies/
f9ng66	fitepn4	People thought this last month and 3M actually dipped	16	desquibnt	1,582,717,413	Government has 30 million n95 masks, recommended to have 300 million. 3m/Honeywell to get a small bump?	https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/alex-azar-coronavirus-masks-30-million-have-need-30-million-fight-america-senate-committee-1489058%3famp=1 Not that theyre a significant part of either companies business, but if the government is in a rush to add 270 million masks, let alone hospitals/other countries, could these stocks see a noticeable bump?	150	waaaghbosss	1,582,690,315	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/f9ng66/government_has_30_million_n95_masks_recommended/
eou2l3	fej5j67	Thank you so much for these; they’re so helpful!! Out of curiosity, do you also invest in your stock picks? If so, when did you get LVGO and how much was your average price per share?	5	likesundayslikerain	1,579,157,737	Top Stock Pick for 2020 (Pt. 2)	Hi [r/stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/) ! I got a lot of requests and messages to keep coming out with posts of stock picks. If you missed my last one, here's the [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/ej4aqf/top_stock_picks_for_2020/). Hopefully, many of you are enjoying gains in $PGNY - up 30% from the date of the post! :) Feel free to add comments/questions below and I'll respond as fast as possible. Livongo Health ([$LVGO](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=lvgo&ty=c&ta=1&p=d)) * A consumer digital health company with a vision to empower people with chronic conditions to live better through the combined power of technology, real-time personalized information, and support from their chosen care team. * The platform analyzes data to build a picture of a person’s patterns, while dietitians and physiologists give them real-time advice about diet, medication and exercise by apps or text message. If a patient’s blood sugar is dangerously low or high, a coach will call to warn them within 60 seconds. Inspired by how big tech companies personalize services and nudge people into certain behaviors, Livongo — short for living-on-the-go — started by treating diabetes, before moving on to hypertension, weight loss and mental health. Why? * Livongo provides a truly disruptive technology and they're targeting a massive TAM (total addressable market). 90% of the $3.5 trillion spent annually on healthcare is dedicated to people with chronic and mental health conditions -- this is only expected to increase. * It also just signed its [largest contract ever](https://www.businessinsider.com/livongo-lands-biggest-contract-yet-2019-10) for the US government, allowing it to provide its diabetes solution to 5.3M employees as part of the Federal Employee Health Benefits Platform starting in 2020. Launching at the start of 2020, the tool will be available to 5 million federal employees and their families — and Livongo is optimistic that the partnership will afford it 45,000 new members and a revenue boost of up to $60 million through 2021. That's a significant lift given that Livongo brought in a total of [$68 million](https://e.businessinsider.com/click/18262001.4/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2VjLmdvdi9BcmNoaXZlcy9lZGdhci9kYXRhLzE2MzkyMjUvMDAwMTE5MzEyNTE5MTg1MTU5L2Q3MzEyNDlkczEuaHRt/5d233c18f730436f2414784fB050eba75) in revenue in 2018, it reported in its S-1 filing. * LVGO's clients include 20% of the Fortune 500 (Target, Pepsi, Microsoft, Merck, and Citigroup) and boast a high retention rate of \~96%. They reported a 121% YoY growth in Q3 2019 and continue to grow exponentially. * Announced partnership this week that they were collaborating with Dexcom ($DXCM) on user data dissemination. In a joint press release, the two companies said that users of Livongo's health information platform would be able to sync their data from DexCom's G6 glucose (blood sugar) monitoring system. * Livongo and health kiosk startup Higi have teamed up for a new program that will bring a Livongo-branded on-stage program to nearly 500 retail pharmacies. Higi has smart health stations at more than 11,000 chain grocery stores and pharmacies sites around the country. They include major brands like Rite Aid, Walgreens, and Kroger.	85	ceud	1,579,046,714	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/eou2l3/top_stock_pick_for_2020_pt_2/
ejx7sw	fd46qbi	Is it just me or is the entire market kinda at an all-time high. What reasoning is there to buy right now, instead of waiting in a month or two?	5	TryHardxMatt	1,578,164,919	Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 6th, 2020	Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning January 6th, 2020. # Geopolitical tensions could hold back stocks in the week ahead, as investors await jobs report - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/geopolitical-tensions-could-hold-back-stocks-in-the-week-ahead.html) *** > Geopolitical concerns could continue to weigh on stocks in the week ahead, leaving investors wondering whether Middle East tensions will be the catalyst for a much anticipated market pullback. * > Stocks sold off Friday, the second trading day of the year, after a rally to new highs on Thursday. The market was slammed after the U.S. killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, sparking a rally in oil prices and raising concerns Iran will take some retaliatory action. * > The big event in the coming week is the December employment report, expected to show 160,000 payrolls were added and average earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. The jobs report is especially important after December’s ISM manufacturing data Friday was surprisingly negative and the weakest in more than a decade. * > The S&P 500 ended the four-day week at 3,235, with a loss of 0.2%, after Friday’s 0.7% decline. Treasury yields retreated on Friday, as buyers moved into the safety of bonds and the 10-year yield was at 1.78%. * > “This was a textbook rationale for a bout of profit taking, but that said, I don’t think it’s dramatic,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “Nonetheless, the question will be when do buyers come in ... Much will depend on this weekend and next week in terms of headlines from both the White House and Iran.” * > Some analysts have been looking for a minor selloff in stocks after the fourth quarter’s 8.5% gain in the S&P 500. But whether Friday’s decline is the start of something bigger is unclear. * > “It could be, but only in retrospect will you know for sure,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. * > Boockvar said if Iran takes some minor action, the market could shrug it off, oil could lose its gains, and stocks could move higher again. * > “We may see Treasurys continue to get a big bid, gold get a bid and the safe-haven currencies get a bid. If we go into things next week and all things are quiet, the market will pay attention to the data,” Krosby said. * > Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities, expects to see Treasury yields lower initially. “I think short-term, the geopolitical risk is probably going to override any fundamental views that people have of the marketplace,” he said. * > But there could be a catalyst for some Treasury selling with the issuance of high level of corporate bonds in the coming week. Faranello expects the year to start off strong, with corporate treasurers looking to raise about $30 billion to $35 billion in the debt market. * > Strategists said they will be looking closely at the jobs data after Friday’s surprisingly weak manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management, which was expected to have been better because of the trade agreement. * > Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, said the survey actually took place before the trade deal was announced, and he’s waiting for the results of the next couple of reports. * > He expects to see 165,000 jobs added in December, off of 266,000 in November, which was in part skewed by the end of GM’s strike. “I think there’s a little upside risk. It seems like we saw a pretty strong Christmas season,” he said, adding there could have been more hiring than was factored into seasonal adjustments. * # This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/aoDnUW7.png)) # Major Indices for this past week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/6x4NtiW.png)) # Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/I3ZNEuH.png)) # Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/QqYTbUD.png)) # Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=636115211971930604)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!](http://elite.finviz.com/grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=636115211971930604)) # Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/U3Ltxt2.png)) # S&P Sectors for the Past Week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/CyHtJoF.png)) # Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/RO92K5i.png) # Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/SEszd5M.png)) # Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/Trp0mo0.png)) # Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/V19lVTd.png)) # Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tlPjW9c.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/aicevVU.png)) * # Typical January Trading: Volatile Last 20 Years > Yesterday major indexes continued their recent trend of strength on the first trading day of 2020. While today the market has turned weaker on escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. This type of volatility was once quite rare in January. However since 2000, the S&P 500 has declined ten times in twenty years in January. This recent weakness can be seen in the above January seasonal pattern chart. > Over the last 21 years, Only NASDAQ has posted a full-month average gain. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have started January positive, only to surrender early-month gains by the eighth trading day. Greatest weakness has appeared just after mid-month, the eleventh trading day. Mild average losses on or around the eleventh trading day quickly swell to over 2% for DJIA and nearly as much for S&P 500 and Russell 1000. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/82a79e9eb21df6d414fd0ec1c7725b4d/e48bbc4e7f5b7041-e9/s500x750/6a964dc4a15e1c9ab0fcc9ccc451f6e642aacff5.jpg)) * # A Banner Year for US Equities > 2019 was surely a banner year for US equities. With a total return of 31.5%, the S&P 500's gain in 2019 was nearly three times the historical average 12-month return of 11.7%. That's strong! In the chart below we compare the S&P 500's annualized returns over the last one, two, five, ten, and twenty years to its average annualized returns over those same time frames since 1928. While the one-year return sticks out like a sore thumb, we would note that the S&P 500's annualized returns over the last two, three, and ten years are also above average. Almost as notable as the fact that the one year return has been so much stronger than average is that the S&P 500's two-year return is less than two percentage points above its historical average. That just shows how bad 2018 was! Looking further out, the only time frame where returns are below average is over the last twenty years where the 6.1% annualized gain is almost five percentage points below the historical average. Over a full twenty years, that's a difference of tripling your investment versus making eight times your investment! > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/01/010220-Annualized-returns.png)) > The chart below compares how current returns during the above time frames rank on a percentile basis relative to all other periods. The S&P 500's one-year return ranks in the 85th percentile which is pretty extreme. For the two, five, and ten year periods, though, current returns are much more middle of the road. Conversely, as stretched as extreme to the upside that the one-year return is relative to all other periods, the twenty-year return is even more depressed to the downside. At just 4.6, more than 95% of all other 20-year periods have been better than the last 20. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/01/010220-Annualized-returns-Percentile.png)) > Finally, as mentioned above the last year has certainly been a strong one, and it follows a year where returns had been abnormally poor. The chart below shows the rolling 12-month total return for the S&P 500 going back to 1990. The gain of 31.49% over the last year was the strongest for the S&P 500 in six years coming up just shy of the 32.39% gain in 2013. Last year at this time, though, the S&P 500 was down over 4% on a total return basis in the prior 12 months. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/01/010220-Annualized-returns-Percentile-rolling.png)) * # 2019 and 2020 Dogs of the Dow > The Dogs of the Dow strategy is a simple, hands-off investment approach that says to buy the 10 highest yielding stocks in the Dow 30 at the start of each year. With the calendar turning over from 2019 to 2020, below is a look at how the Dogs strategy performed in 2019. As shown, the 10 Dogs posted a total return of 19.38% in 2019, which was below the 25% return for the Dow and well below the 28% that the 20 non-Dogs returned. The biggest winner in the Dogs in 2019 was JP Morgan (JPM) with a gain of 47.27%, but Pfizer's (PFE) decline of 6.92% really hurt overall performance. > The 20 non-Dogs were led by Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), and United Tech (UTX), while Walgreens Boots (WBA) and 3M (MMM) were the two non-Dogs that fell in 2019. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our Trend Analyzer tool and track key trends in individual stocks and major ETFs. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/01/dogs2019use.png)) > Moving on to 2020, below is a list of this year's Dogs of the Dow. Eight of the ten Dogs from 2019 remain on the list, while 3M (MMM) and Walgreens Boots (WBA) -- the two non-Dogs that fell in 2019 -- have replaced JP Morgan (JPM) and Procter & Gamble (PG) -- the two biggest gainers of the Dogs in 2019. Dow Inc. (DOW) is the highest yielding Dog at 5.12%, followed by Exxon (XOM), IBM, and Verizon (VZ), which all have dividend yields above 4%. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/01/2020dogs.png)) * # Full Year 2019, Q4, and December Asset Class Total Returns > Below are the final total return performance numbers for key ETFs across asset classes in 2019. For each ETF, we also include its performance in Q4 and December. > The S&P 500 rallied 2.9% in December and 8.99% in Q4 to finish the full year up 31.22%. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was by far the best performing US index ETF in 2019 with a gain of 38.96%, and it was the third best ETF in the entire matrix. The title of best performing ETF in 2019 goes to the S&P 500 Technology sector ETF (XLK), which rallied 49.86%. Remember, 40% of XLK is made up of just Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), which gained 89% and 58% in 2019, respectively. The Russia stock market ETF (RSX) was the second biggest winner in the matrix with a 2019 total return of 40.79%. > Everywhere you look across the equity landscape, there were big winners in 2019, but the weakest area of the market was the Energy sector ETF (XLE). Even still, XLE managed to put up double-digit percentage gains on the year at +11.74%. > In the commodities space, we saw oil gain 32.61% in 2019, which actually bested the gain for the S&P 500. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) both put in solid gains in the mid-teens, while the perpetually losing natural gas ETF (UNG) was the only ticker in the matrix that fell across all three time frames (December, Q4, and full year). > Looking at fixed income, the aggregate bond market ETFs (AGG and BND) posted total returns of 8%+, while the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) gained 14% on the year. Q4 and December were tough for fixed income, however, as rates moved higher. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/01/assetclass1231.png)) * # January Almanac: Average Performance Slips in Presidential Election Years > January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities. > DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those seventeen Januarys with three in a row, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and then again in 2014 to 2016. January 2009 has the dubious honor of being the worst January on record for DJIA (-8.8%) and S&P 500 (-8.6%) since 1901 and 1931 respectively. Last year, January was downright stellar after the worst December since 1931 for DJIA and S&P 500. > In election years, Januarys have been weaker. DJIA and S&P 500 slip to number #8 while DJIA average performance dips negative. NASDAQ slips to #3, but average performance remains respectable at 1.7%. > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://66.media.tumblr.com/891a38b2171ab08b547127db29f12536/f4d2c822df56176c-4f/s400x600/8f8fe64b2da5c123c7e073095dd8b656e1066429.jpg)) * # STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending January 3rd, 2020 ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]()) (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!) # STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.5.20 ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]()) (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!) * Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- *** > * $CMC > * $WBA > * $BBBY > * $STZ > * $LEN > * $CALM > * $SMPL > * $RPM > * $ANGO > * $AZZ > * $KBH > * $UNF > * $MSM > * $INFY > * $SCHN > * $SNX > * $AYI > * $GBX > * $HELE > * $SAR > * $EXFO > * $NTIC > * $LNN > * $WDFC > * $KRUS > * $FC > * $SLP *** ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/Trp0mo0.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/lNG07hG.png)) ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!](https://i.imgur.com/Y1KO0R4.png)) * Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: * > # Monday 1.6.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/DNOQOhD.png)) > # Monday 1.6.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * > # Tuesday 1.7.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/QorVd8K.png)) > # Tuesday 1.7.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/xTrYEcQ.png)) * > # Wednesday 1.8.2 0Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/TRPytQz.png)) > # Wednesday 1.8.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/owUNbSh.png)) * > # Thursday 1.9.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/RXUjAgC.png)) > # Thursday 1.9.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/m5AQPKl.png)) * > # Friday 1.10.20 Before Market Open: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/v60Cw2n.png)) * > # Friday 1.10.20 After Market Close: > ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. * # lululemon athletica inc. $229.38 > lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 11, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.93 per share on revenue of $896.50 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.90 to $0.92 per share on revenue of $880.00 million to $890.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.00% with revenue increasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 9.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.0% above its 200 day moving average of $182.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 6, 2019 there was some notable buying of 927 contracts of the $260.00 call expiring on Friday, December 13, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LULU&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Commercial Metals Company $22.18 > Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, January 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 60.00% with revenue increasing by 13.52%. Short interest has decreased by 22.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.0% above its 200 day moving average of $18.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.1% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=CMC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc $59.08 > Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.40 per share on revenue of $34.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.11% with revenue increasing by 2.48%. Short interest has decreased by 30.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% above its 200 day moving average of $55.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=WBA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. $16.08 > Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (BBBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $2.86 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 83.33% with revenue decreasing by 5.68%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.8% above its 200 day moving average of $12.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,141 contracts of the $17.00 put expiring on Friday, February 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.3% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BBBY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Constellation Brands, Inc. $189.53 > Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $1.95 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.83% with revenue decreasing by 9.75%. Short interest has decreased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.9% below its 200 day moving average of $193.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=STZ&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Lennar Corp. $56.47 > Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $6.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.84 to $1.94 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.06% with revenue increasing by 3.73%. Short interest has increased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% above its 200 day moving average of $53.44. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LEN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Cal-Maine Foods $42.45 > Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, January 6, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 19.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=CALM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # Simply Good Foods Company $28.17 > Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, January 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.21 per share on revenue of $166.52 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.67% with revenue increasing by 37.70%. Short interest has increased by 140.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.0% above its 200 day moving average of $25.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SMPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # RPM International Inc. $75.15 > RPM International Inc. (RPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $1.40 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.71 to $0.76 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.38% with revenue increasing by 2.75%. Short interest has decreased by 16.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $66.05. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=RPM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # AngioDynamics $16.49 > AngioDynamics (ANGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $71.88 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.45% with revenue decreasing by 21.45%. Short interest has decreased by 27.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.1% below its 200 day moving average of $18.55. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.4% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ANGO&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # AZZ Inc. $45.21 > AZZ Inc. (AZZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, January 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.84 per share on revenue of $276.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 42.37% with revenue increasing by 15.36%. Short interest has increased by 121.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% above its 200 day moving average of $43.00. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters. > #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AZZ&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)) * # DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? *** I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks.	227	bigbear0083	1,578,147,965	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/ejx7sw/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
e0fn0i	f8dpeok	As always, thank you for your summaries! They are very interesting to read	86	domionfire	1,574,503,293	Some interesting news in the stock market this week	As usual I’ll start off with a high level round up of the large caps before adding a bit more detail on the value and speculative stocks. TJX and Target both reported excellent results. However, it was not a good week in general for retail with Macy’s reporting a 3.5% drop in same store sales and a data breach. Kohls dropped 20% after reporting a miss, cutting guidance and pointing to an “increasingly competitive promotional environment”. Home Depot results were mixed and the stock price also dropped 10%. A little harsh perhaps after what was a narrow miss and considering comps were still up a very respectable 3.5%. A number of analysts followed the sell off with reassuring comments that the market for home improvement products remained strong with improving home affordability, lower interest rates, aging baby boomers spending money on remodelling and millennials entering the housing market. Elsewhere, Snapchat announced it will be fact-checking all political advertising in a move that offers a middle ground between Facebook and Twitter and may help it take a larger share of political advertising budgets ahead of the 2020 elections. Advertisers will be keen to use Snapchat’s platform which remains highly popular among younger demographics (which are seeing significant increases in voter turnout). With the total spend on political advertising in 2020 estimated at $10 billion even a small share could provide a meaningful boost to Snapchat (TTM revenues $1.54 billion) over the next year. The man credited with bringing T-Mobile back from the dead, CEO John Legere, announced he was moving on and was to be replaced by COO Mike Sievert. The market took the news in its stride, reassured by announcements that there would be no change in strategy and realising perhaps that the time had come for a more conventional approach. Nevertheless Mr Sievert has some big shoes to fill. PayPal said it was putting part of its cash pile to use with a transformative $4 billion acquisition of, discount-finding tool, Honey Science. The stock fell 1.5% but the news was well received by analysts who said it should drive engagement and develop a deeper relationship with consumers and merchants. Bad news for Slack Technologies as a blog post this week by Microsoft Corporation revealed its Microsoft “Teams” service now has more than 20 million users. Teams seems to be gaining momentum, which is clearly a negative for Slack. The latest numbers suggest Teams added 7 million new daily active users in the past five months compared to adding just 1 million new daily active users in the previous 10 months. Finally the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) released data on Monday, showing a 12% year-over-year declines in appliance shipments. That sounds like bad news for appliance makers such as Whirlpool but, as of Friday, the stock was little changed. Value stocks (Fluent Inc) Fluent Inc jumped 20% after management sent a strong signal to the market. However I think it could go significantly higher. The company operates in a fast growing, fast changing and competitive sector - digital marketing. It has built up a huge database of (150 million+) that it can target on behalf of clients. It uses competitions to get details and, importantly, gets consent from clients to contact them. A former CEO has said that if European data protection laws were introduced in the US it would give Fluent a huge advantage as it (largely) already has consent. Indeed Europe offers a huge potential market for Fluent which has already reportedly started testing in the UK. However Fluent's stock has not had a good year. The data driven digital marketer is down 75% (with a valuation of 0.5x sales and 0.6x book) from highs after reducing guidance, not once but twice. That by itself is an issue as it suggests that, not only is there a problem but, management dont understand how bad it is. The overall change in guidance was actually not that bad (not something that suggests a 75% SP drop is required). Full year sales are still forecast to rise 6.4% although EBITDA will drop 34%. Q3 and Q4 numbers are down on 2018 but Q4 still reveals an annualised EBITDA of $20m which compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million. I think there is more upside potential. Management have been clear throughout that the outlook for the core advertising platform is very good. The drop in revenues and rising costs are due to the company exiting peripheral ventures that have been explored and not met revenue/return targets (as well as a couple of bad debts deemed unrecoverable). They said they did experience some softness at the core for approximately 60 days, spanning mid-August to mid-October. On the November 11 conference call CEO Ryan Schulke said "Since mid-October, we have regained our traction and to date, we've seen trending improve from top-line revenue and media margin perspective." That has been supported by Tuesdays share buy back announcement with Schulke saying “This stock repurchase program reflects the continued confidence we have in the fundamentals and long-term prospects of our business, further supported by improvements we have seen in our core commercial trending following a challenging third quarter,” Management clearly want to send out a signal that the core business is improving again and the SP jump of 20% is a good start but it is still down 30% on a week ago and 75% on April highs. (as mentioned above the annualised EBITDA of $20m compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million) Growth stocks (Target) Target reported excellent results as it appears customers warm to the concept of same day pick up from a Target store. More hassle in some ways but it eliminates a load of cardboard boxes that would have to be recycled. Third-quarter results shot past guidance as store traffic and sales growth accelerated. Revenue grew 4.7% to $18.7 billion, beating analyst expectations of $18.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose 25% to $1.36 after the company had forecast EPS between $1.04 and $1.24 three months ago. Stock ended the week up 24%. 25% EPS growth compares favorably to the 20x 2019 PE. Highly Speculative Pharmaceuticals (Karuna, Myovant and Hepion) Karuna Therapeutics jumped 440% on Monday after reporting a very positive mid-stage clinical trial for its lead candidate, KarXT, for the treatment of acute psychosis in patients with schizophrenia Jeffrey Lieberman, M.D., professor and chairman of the Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Karuna’s scientific advisory board said “The results of the Phase 2 trial are impressive and encouraging because they indicate that KarXT, if approved, could represent a game-changing therapeutic advance in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia,” He added. “The effectiveness of antipsychotics has been limited by the frequent and serious side effects of first- and second-generation drugs which are difficult for many patients to tolerate, are potentially harmful, and lead to high rates of discontinuation and relapse. In addition to its novel mechanism of action, KarXT could be a new therapeutic option that has the potential to offer robust efficacy devoid of weight gain, metabolic effects and extrapyramidal {involuntary movement} side effects.” The second point is important as KarXT antipsychotic drugs are notorious for negative side effects that often cause patients to discontinue use of the drugs. Karuna reported that discontinuation rates in the study were similar between patients receiving KarXT and those receiving placebo. The company said that there was "no evidence of somnolence {drowsiness}, extrapyramidal side effects or weight gain relative to placebo" -- all of which are common worrisome side effects of current antipsychotic drugs. The company also said it planned to explore other CNS disorders that could benefit from the treatment, such as psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease as well as the management of pain Back of the envelope, I would consider the probability of approval has increased from about 20% to 40% and that the lack of side effects should make it possible for the company to take a 40% share in a $10 billion market. 30% margins with forward PE of 14 seems reasonable. That would yield a valuation of $6.7 billion (40% x 40% x $10 billion x 30% x 14 = $6.72 billion) compared to yesterday’s close at $1.99 billion. That looks attractive even before considering potential applications for psychosis in Alzheimers or pain management. Shares of small-cap biotech Myovant Sciences Ltd doubled after Myovant reported on Tuesday that the the Phase 3 study that evaluated once-daily oral relugolix 120mg in men with advanced prostate cancer met the primary efficacy endpoint, as well as six key secondary endpoints. Now as far as I can see, relugolix faces some competition in its end market meaning its not going to have the market all to itself. One commentator suggested it would win just 5% of the market. I think that is low, men don't like having their testosterone levels suppressed (given the side effects of hot flashes, fatigue and loss of sexual desire and function) and relugolix can help reduce the time patients need to use the therapy. Data has shown relugolix quickly lowered testosterone to castration levels and the study also showed testosterone levels recovered faster after patients stopped taking relugolix, which could bring benefit for drug holidays or intermittent therapy. Consequently I think a 10%+ market share along with 85% probability of success, 3 million people in the US with prostate cancer and cost of treatment $4,400 (based on firmagon estimates) then we have a TAM of $1.1 bn (10% x 85% x 3m x cost of treatment $4,400). With 30% margins and a PE multiple of 10 you get a target valuation of $3.4 billion compared to current market cap of $1.15 billion. I suspect the 30% margin assumption or the 10% market share assumption maybe too high. But even if that is the case, I dont think Myovant's current mcap is expensive. Stock closed up 128% with market cap of $1.26 billion. Now for an off the scale speculative stock. Please exercise extreme caution. New Jersey-based Hepion Pharmaceuticals (market cap $12.4 million) reported on Thursday that its CRV431 treatment prevented the development of liver cirrhosis in a highly aggressive, preclinical model of liver disease in an animal study. "The results align with previous findings in other experimental models and highlight the tremendous potential of CRV431 as a treatment for liver diseases, including NASH, where progression to cirrhosis is a primary medical concern," said Hepion CEO Robert Foster. I’ll just say caveat emptor and it’ll be a great a story if it works out. Insider (Nesco Holdings) On Wednesday, Chief Executive Officer Lee Jacobson purchased $352,154 worth of Nesco Holdings, picking up the stock after a drop of almost 70% this year. Nesco is one of the largest specialty equipment rental providers to the electric utility transmission, telecom and rail industries in North America. It reported mixed Q3 results a couple of weeks ago with revenues down 2.6% and a loss of $18 million but the company generated solid revenue growth in both the equipment rental (up 7.3%) and parts, tools, and accessories businesses (up 51.2%), as well as the 13th consecutive quarter of growth in adjusted EBITDA (up 7.5%). At the time Lee Jacobson, CEO of Nesco, remarked "We continue to see considerable opportunities for organic growth, supported by growing customer backlogs within our core electric utility markets, increased market penetration of the rail and telecom markets and further penetration of the parts tools and accessories offering across our existing equipment rental customer base. Shortages for specialty rental equipment in the markets we serve have continued and our customer rental contract periods have lengthened to record levels, further supporting our planned investment in fleet growth.” That is a very positive outlook from Mr Jacobson and, having almost doubled his shareholding, he has backed that up with his own cash. With the stock trading on 0.6x revenues other investors may also want to have a closer look. If you would like to see my regular updates during the week then please “FOLLOW” me. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Some of the stocks mentioned are HIGH RISK AND SPECULATIVE. Please do your own research.	604	InterestingNews1	1,574,500,842	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/e0fn0i/some_interesting_news_in_the_stock_market_this/
e0fn0i	f8dx8rt	How the fuck people prefer teams to slack?	23	nikolazdravkov	1,574,512,558	Some interesting news in the stock market this week	As usual I’ll start off with a high level round up of the large caps before adding a bit more detail on the value and speculative stocks. TJX and Target both reported excellent results. However, it was not a good week in general for retail with Macy’s reporting a 3.5% drop in same store sales and a data breach. Kohls dropped 20% after reporting a miss, cutting guidance and pointing to an “increasingly competitive promotional environment”. Home Depot results were mixed and the stock price also dropped 10%. A little harsh perhaps after what was a narrow miss and considering comps were still up a very respectable 3.5%. A number of analysts followed the sell off with reassuring comments that the market for home improvement products remained strong with improving home affordability, lower interest rates, aging baby boomers spending money on remodelling and millennials entering the housing market. Elsewhere, Snapchat announced it will be fact-checking all political advertising in a move that offers a middle ground between Facebook and Twitter and may help it take a larger share of political advertising budgets ahead of the 2020 elections. Advertisers will be keen to use Snapchat’s platform which remains highly popular among younger demographics (which are seeing significant increases in voter turnout). With the total spend on political advertising in 2020 estimated at $10 billion even a small share could provide a meaningful boost to Snapchat (TTM revenues $1.54 billion) over the next year. The man credited with bringing T-Mobile back from the dead, CEO John Legere, announced he was moving on and was to be replaced by COO Mike Sievert. The market took the news in its stride, reassured by announcements that there would be no change in strategy and realising perhaps that the time had come for a more conventional approach. Nevertheless Mr Sievert has some big shoes to fill. PayPal said it was putting part of its cash pile to use with a transformative $4 billion acquisition of, discount-finding tool, Honey Science. The stock fell 1.5% but the news was well received by analysts who said it should drive engagement and develop a deeper relationship with consumers and merchants. Bad news for Slack Technologies as a blog post this week by Microsoft Corporation revealed its Microsoft “Teams” service now has more than 20 million users. Teams seems to be gaining momentum, which is clearly a negative for Slack. The latest numbers suggest Teams added 7 million new daily active users in the past five months compared to adding just 1 million new daily active users in the previous 10 months. Finally the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) released data on Monday, showing a 12% year-over-year declines in appliance shipments. That sounds like bad news for appliance makers such as Whirlpool but, as of Friday, the stock was little changed. Value stocks (Fluent Inc) Fluent Inc jumped 20% after management sent a strong signal to the market. However I think it could go significantly higher. The company operates in a fast growing, fast changing and competitive sector - digital marketing. It has built up a huge database of (150 million+) that it can target on behalf of clients. It uses competitions to get details and, importantly, gets consent from clients to contact them. A former CEO has said that if European data protection laws were introduced in the US it would give Fluent a huge advantage as it (largely) already has consent. Indeed Europe offers a huge potential market for Fluent which has already reportedly started testing in the UK. However Fluent's stock has not had a good year. The data driven digital marketer is down 75% (with a valuation of 0.5x sales and 0.6x book) from highs after reducing guidance, not once but twice. That by itself is an issue as it suggests that, not only is there a problem but, management dont understand how bad it is. The overall change in guidance was actually not that bad (not something that suggests a 75% SP drop is required). Full year sales are still forecast to rise 6.4% although EBITDA will drop 34%. Q3 and Q4 numbers are down on 2018 but Q4 still reveals an annualised EBITDA of $20m which compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million. I think there is more upside potential. Management have been clear throughout that the outlook for the core advertising platform is very good. The drop in revenues and rising costs are due to the company exiting peripheral ventures that have been explored and not met revenue/return targets (as well as a couple of bad debts deemed unrecoverable). They said they did experience some softness at the core for approximately 60 days, spanning mid-August to mid-October. On the November 11 conference call CEO Ryan Schulke said "Since mid-October, we have regained our traction and to date, we've seen trending improve from top-line revenue and media margin perspective." That has been supported by Tuesdays share buy back announcement with Schulke saying “This stock repurchase program reflects the continued confidence we have in the fundamentals and long-term prospects of our business, further supported by improvements we have seen in our core commercial trending following a challenging third quarter,” Management clearly want to send out a signal that the core business is improving again and the SP jump of 20% is a good start but it is still down 30% on a week ago and 75% on April highs. (as mentioned above the annualised EBITDA of $20m compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million) Growth stocks (Target) Target reported excellent results as it appears customers warm to the concept of same day pick up from a Target store. More hassle in some ways but it eliminates a load of cardboard boxes that would have to be recycled. Third-quarter results shot past guidance as store traffic and sales growth accelerated. Revenue grew 4.7% to $18.7 billion, beating analyst expectations of $18.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose 25% to $1.36 after the company had forecast EPS between $1.04 and $1.24 three months ago. Stock ended the week up 24%. 25% EPS growth compares favorably to the 20x 2019 PE. Highly Speculative Pharmaceuticals (Karuna, Myovant and Hepion) Karuna Therapeutics jumped 440% on Monday after reporting a very positive mid-stage clinical trial for its lead candidate, KarXT, for the treatment of acute psychosis in patients with schizophrenia Jeffrey Lieberman, M.D., professor and chairman of the Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Karuna’s scientific advisory board said “The results of the Phase 2 trial are impressive and encouraging because they indicate that KarXT, if approved, could represent a game-changing therapeutic advance in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia,” He added. “The effectiveness of antipsychotics has been limited by the frequent and serious side effects of first- and second-generation drugs which are difficult for many patients to tolerate, are potentially harmful, and lead to high rates of discontinuation and relapse. In addition to its novel mechanism of action, KarXT could be a new therapeutic option that has the potential to offer robust efficacy devoid of weight gain, metabolic effects and extrapyramidal {involuntary movement} side effects.” The second point is important as KarXT antipsychotic drugs are notorious for negative side effects that often cause patients to discontinue use of the drugs. Karuna reported that discontinuation rates in the study were similar between patients receiving KarXT and those receiving placebo. The company said that there was "no evidence of somnolence {drowsiness}, extrapyramidal side effects or weight gain relative to placebo" -- all of which are common worrisome side effects of current antipsychotic drugs. The company also said it planned to explore other CNS disorders that could benefit from the treatment, such as psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease as well as the management of pain Back of the envelope, I would consider the probability of approval has increased from about 20% to 40% and that the lack of side effects should make it possible for the company to take a 40% share in a $10 billion market. 30% margins with forward PE of 14 seems reasonable. That would yield a valuation of $6.7 billion (40% x 40% x $10 billion x 30% x 14 = $6.72 billion) compared to yesterday’s close at $1.99 billion. That looks attractive even before considering potential applications for psychosis in Alzheimers or pain management. Shares of small-cap biotech Myovant Sciences Ltd doubled after Myovant reported on Tuesday that the the Phase 3 study that evaluated once-daily oral relugolix 120mg in men with advanced prostate cancer met the primary efficacy endpoint, as well as six key secondary endpoints. Now as far as I can see, relugolix faces some competition in its end market meaning its not going to have the market all to itself. One commentator suggested it would win just 5% of the market. I think that is low, men don't like having their testosterone levels suppressed (given the side effects of hot flashes, fatigue and loss of sexual desire and function) and relugolix can help reduce the time patients need to use the therapy. Data has shown relugolix quickly lowered testosterone to castration levels and the study also showed testosterone levels recovered faster after patients stopped taking relugolix, which could bring benefit for drug holidays or intermittent therapy. Consequently I think a 10%+ market share along with 85% probability of success, 3 million people in the US with prostate cancer and cost of treatment $4,400 (based on firmagon estimates) then we have a TAM of $1.1 bn (10% x 85% x 3m x cost of treatment $4,400). With 30% margins and a PE multiple of 10 you get a target valuation of $3.4 billion compared to current market cap of $1.15 billion. I suspect the 30% margin assumption or the 10% market share assumption maybe too high. But even if that is the case, I dont think Myovant's current mcap is expensive. Stock closed up 128% with market cap of $1.26 billion. Now for an off the scale speculative stock. Please exercise extreme caution. New Jersey-based Hepion Pharmaceuticals (market cap $12.4 million) reported on Thursday that its CRV431 treatment prevented the development of liver cirrhosis in a highly aggressive, preclinical model of liver disease in an animal study. "The results align with previous findings in other experimental models and highlight the tremendous potential of CRV431 as a treatment for liver diseases, including NASH, where progression to cirrhosis is a primary medical concern," said Hepion CEO Robert Foster. I’ll just say caveat emptor and it’ll be a great a story if it works out. Insider (Nesco Holdings) On Wednesday, Chief Executive Officer Lee Jacobson purchased $352,154 worth of Nesco Holdings, picking up the stock after a drop of almost 70% this year. Nesco is one of the largest specialty equipment rental providers to the electric utility transmission, telecom and rail industries in North America. It reported mixed Q3 results a couple of weeks ago with revenues down 2.6% and a loss of $18 million but the company generated solid revenue growth in both the equipment rental (up 7.3%) and parts, tools, and accessories businesses (up 51.2%), as well as the 13th consecutive quarter of growth in adjusted EBITDA (up 7.5%). At the time Lee Jacobson, CEO of Nesco, remarked "We continue to see considerable opportunities for organic growth, supported by growing customer backlogs within our core electric utility markets, increased market penetration of the rail and telecom markets and further penetration of the parts tools and accessories offering across our existing equipment rental customer base. Shortages for specialty rental equipment in the markets we serve have continued and our customer rental contract periods have lengthened to record levels, further supporting our planned investment in fleet growth.” That is a very positive outlook from Mr Jacobson and, having almost doubled his shareholding, he has backed that up with his own cash. With the stock trading on 0.6x revenues other investors may also want to have a closer look. If you would like to see my regular updates during the week then please “FOLLOW” me. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Some of the stocks mentioned are HIGH RISK AND SPECULATIVE. Please do your own research.	604	InterestingNews1	1,574,500,842	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/e0fn0i/some_interesting_news_in_the_stock_market_this/
e0fn0i	f8e0hbu	Thanks for following. Please keep posting.	9	InterestingNews1	1,574,515,314	Some interesting news in the stock market this week	As usual I’ll start off with a high level round up of the large caps before adding a bit more detail on the value and speculative stocks. TJX and Target both reported excellent results. However, it was not a good week in general for retail with Macy’s reporting a 3.5% drop in same store sales and a data breach. Kohls dropped 20% after reporting a miss, cutting guidance and pointing to an “increasingly competitive promotional environment”. Home Depot results were mixed and the stock price also dropped 10%. A little harsh perhaps after what was a narrow miss and considering comps were still up a very respectable 3.5%. A number of analysts followed the sell off with reassuring comments that the market for home improvement products remained strong with improving home affordability, lower interest rates, aging baby boomers spending money on remodelling and millennials entering the housing market. Elsewhere, Snapchat announced it will be fact-checking all political advertising in a move that offers a middle ground between Facebook and Twitter and may help it take a larger share of political advertising budgets ahead of the 2020 elections. Advertisers will be keen to use Snapchat’s platform which remains highly popular among younger demographics (which are seeing significant increases in voter turnout). With the total spend on political advertising in 2020 estimated at $10 billion even a small share could provide a meaningful boost to Snapchat (TTM revenues $1.54 billion) over the next year. The man credited with bringing T-Mobile back from the dead, CEO John Legere, announced he was moving on and was to be replaced by COO Mike Sievert. The market took the news in its stride, reassured by announcements that there would be no change in strategy and realising perhaps that the time had come for a more conventional approach. Nevertheless Mr Sievert has some big shoes to fill. PayPal said it was putting part of its cash pile to use with a transformative $4 billion acquisition of, discount-finding tool, Honey Science. The stock fell 1.5% but the news was well received by analysts who said it should drive engagement and develop a deeper relationship with consumers and merchants. Bad news for Slack Technologies as a blog post this week by Microsoft Corporation revealed its Microsoft “Teams” service now has more than 20 million users. Teams seems to be gaining momentum, which is clearly a negative for Slack. The latest numbers suggest Teams added 7 million new daily active users in the past five months compared to adding just 1 million new daily active users in the previous 10 months. Finally the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) released data on Monday, showing a 12% year-over-year declines in appliance shipments. That sounds like bad news for appliance makers such as Whirlpool but, as of Friday, the stock was little changed. Value stocks (Fluent Inc) Fluent Inc jumped 20% after management sent a strong signal to the market. However I think it could go significantly higher. The company operates in a fast growing, fast changing and competitive sector - digital marketing. It has built up a huge database of (150 million+) that it can target on behalf of clients. It uses competitions to get details and, importantly, gets consent from clients to contact them. A former CEO has said that if European data protection laws were introduced in the US it would give Fluent a huge advantage as it (largely) already has consent. Indeed Europe offers a huge potential market for Fluent which has already reportedly started testing in the UK. However Fluent's stock has not had a good year. The data driven digital marketer is down 75% (with a valuation of 0.5x sales and 0.6x book) from highs after reducing guidance, not once but twice. That by itself is an issue as it suggests that, not only is there a problem but, management dont understand how bad it is. The overall change in guidance was actually not that bad (not something that suggests a 75% SP drop is required). Full year sales are still forecast to rise 6.4% although EBITDA will drop 34%. Q3 and Q4 numbers are down on 2018 but Q4 still reveals an annualised EBITDA of $20m which compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million. I think there is more upside potential. Management have been clear throughout that the outlook for the core advertising platform is very good. The drop in revenues and rising costs are due to the company exiting peripheral ventures that have been explored and not met revenue/return targets (as well as a couple of bad debts deemed unrecoverable). They said they did experience some softness at the core for approximately 60 days, spanning mid-August to mid-October. On the November 11 conference call CEO Ryan Schulke said "Since mid-October, we have regained our traction and to date, we've seen trending improve from top-line revenue and media margin perspective." That has been supported by Tuesdays share buy back announcement with Schulke saying “This stock repurchase program reflects the continued confidence we have in the fundamentals and long-term prospects of our business, further supported by improvements we have seen in our core commercial trending following a challenging third quarter,” Management clearly want to send out a signal that the core business is improving again and the SP jump of 20% is a good start but it is still down 30% on a week ago and 75% on April highs. (as mentioned above the annualised EBITDA of $20m compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million) Growth stocks (Target) Target reported excellent results as it appears customers warm to the concept of same day pick up from a Target store. More hassle in some ways but it eliminates a load of cardboard boxes that would have to be recycled. Third-quarter results shot past guidance as store traffic and sales growth accelerated. Revenue grew 4.7% to $18.7 billion, beating analyst expectations of $18.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose 25% to $1.36 after the company had forecast EPS between $1.04 and $1.24 three months ago. Stock ended the week up 24%. 25% EPS growth compares favorably to the 20x 2019 PE. Highly Speculative Pharmaceuticals (Karuna, Myovant and Hepion) Karuna Therapeutics jumped 440% on Monday after reporting a very positive mid-stage clinical trial for its lead candidate, KarXT, for the treatment of acute psychosis in patients with schizophrenia Jeffrey Lieberman, M.D., professor and chairman of the Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Karuna’s scientific advisory board said “The results of the Phase 2 trial are impressive and encouraging because they indicate that KarXT, if approved, could represent a game-changing therapeutic advance in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia,” He added. “The effectiveness of antipsychotics has been limited by the frequent and serious side effects of first- and second-generation drugs which are difficult for many patients to tolerate, are potentially harmful, and lead to high rates of discontinuation and relapse. In addition to its novel mechanism of action, KarXT could be a new therapeutic option that has the potential to offer robust efficacy devoid of weight gain, metabolic effects and extrapyramidal {involuntary movement} side effects.” The second point is important as KarXT antipsychotic drugs are notorious for negative side effects that often cause patients to discontinue use of the drugs. Karuna reported that discontinuation rates in the study were similar between patients receiving KarXT and those receiving placebo. The company said that there was "no evidence of somnolence {drowsiness}, extrapyramidal side effects or weight gain relative to placebo" -- all of which are common worrisome side effects of current antipsychotic drugs. The company also said it planned to explore other CNS disorders that could benefit from the treatment, such as psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease as well as the management of pain Back of the envelope, I would consider the probability of approval has increased from about 20% to 40% and that the lack of side effects should make it possible for the company to take a 40% share in a $10 billion market. 30% margins with forward PE of 14 seems reasonable. That would yield a valuation of $6.7 billion (40% x 40% x $10 billion x 30% x 14 = $6.72 billion) compared to yesterday’s close at $1.99 billion. That looks attractive even before considering potential applications for psychosis in Alzheimers or pain management. Shares of small-cap biotech Myovant Sciences Ltd doubled after Myovant reported on Tuesday that the the Phase 3 study that evaluated once-daily oral relugolix 120mg in men with advanced prostate cancer met the primary efficacy endpoint, as well as six key secondary endpoints. Now as far as I can see, relugolix faces some competition in its end market meaning its not going to have the market all to itself. One commentator suggested it would win just 5% of the market. I think that is low, men don't like having their testosterone levels suppressed (given the side effects of hot flashes, fatigue and loss of sexual desire and function) and relugolix can help reduce the time patients need to use the therapy. Data has shown relugolix quickly lowered testosterone to castration levels and the study also showed testosterone levels recovered faster after patients stopped taking relugolix, which could bring benefit for drug holidays or intermittent therapy. Consequently I think a 10%+ market share along with 85% probability of success, 3 million people in the US with prostate cancer and cost of treatment $4,400 (based on firmagon estimates) then we have a TAM of $1.1 bn (10% x 85% x 3m x cost of treatment $4,400). With 30% margins and a PE multiple of 10 you get a target valuation of $3.4 billion compared to current market cap of $1.15 billion. I suspect the 30% margin assumption or the 10% market share assumption maybe too high. But even if that is the case, I dont think Myovant's current mcap is expensive. Stock closed up 128% with market cap of $1.26 billion. Now for an off the scale speculative stock. Please exercise extreme caution. New Jersey-based Hepion Pharmaceuticals (market cap $12.4 million) reported on Thursday that its CRV431 treatment prevented the development of liver cirrhosis in a highly aggressive, preclinical model of liver disease in an animal study. "The results align with previous findings in other experimental models and highlight the tremendous potential of CRV431 as a treatment for liver diseases, including NASH, where progression to cirrhosis is a primary medical concern," said Hepion CEO Robert Foster. I’ll just say caveat emptor and it’ll be a great a story if it works out. Insider (Nesco Holdings) On Wednesday, Chief Executive Officer Lee Jacobson purchased $352,154 worth of Nesco Holdings, picking up the stock after a drop of almost 70% this year. Nesco is one of the largest specialty equipment rental providers to the electric utility transmission, telecom and rail industries in North America. It reported mixed Q3 results a couple of weeks ago with revenues down 2.6% and a loss of $18 million but the company generated solid revenue growth in both the equipment rental (up 7.3%) and parts, tools, and accessories businesses (up 51.2%), as well as the 13th consecutive quarter of growth in adjusted EBITDA (up 7.5%). At the time Lee Jacobson, CEO of Nesco, remarked "We continue to see considerable opportunities for organic growth, supported by growing customer backlogs within our core electric utility markets, increased market penetration of the rail and telecom markets and further penetration of the parts tools and accessories offering across our existing equipment rental customer base. Shortages for specialty rental equipment in the markets we serve have continued and our customer rental contract periods have lengthened to record levels, further supporting our planned investment in fleet growth.” That is a very positive outlook from Mr Jacobson and, having almost doubled his shareholding, he has backed that up with his own cash. With the stock trading on 0.6x revenues other investors may also want to have a closer look. If you would like to see my regular updates during the week then please “FOLLOW” me. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Some of the stocks mentioned are HIGH RISK AND SPECULATIVE. Please do your own research.	604	InterestingNews1	1,574,500,842	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/e0fn0i/some_interesting_news_in_the_stock_market_this/
e0fn0i	f8dy01a	I love Slack for both work and personal use, but there are just too many flaws and the business edition is barely any better than the regular. There are so many competitors and It is becoming hard to find a company still using slack or that is adopting slack over a different platform. Our company just switched to Mattermost so we can cheaply internally host the service ourselves, my last company (a fortune 50) just switched from slack to Teams, and my wife’s company (another fortune 50) is going with something called Flowdock. All look the same, and mostly function the same, but others have specific features that companies want and it’s too expensive. Then in a consumer level you have discord which is way more community driven. Anyone I know who hasn’t been using slack for a long time, goes with discord over it.	8	am0x	1,574,513,232	Some interesting news in the stock market this week	As usual I’ll start off with a high level round up of the large caps before adding a bit more detail on the value and speculative stocks. TJX and Target both reported excellent results. However, it was not a good week in general for retail with Macy’s reporting a 3.5% drop in same store sales and a data breach. Kohls dropped 20% after reporting a miss, cutting guidance and pointing to an “increasingly competitive promotional environment”. Home Depot results were mixed and the stock price also dropped 10%. A little harsh perhaps after what was a narrow miss and considering comps were still up a very respectable 3.5%. A number of analysts followed the sell off with reassuring comments that the market for home improvement products remained strong with improving home affordability, lower interest rates, aging baby boomers spending money on remodelling and millennials entering the housing market. Elsewhere, Snapchat announced it will be fact-checking all political advertising in a move that offers a middle ground between Facebook and Twitter and may help it take a larger share of political advertising budgets ahead of the 2020 elections. Advertisers will be keen to use Snapchat’s platform which remains highly popular among younger demographics (which are seeing significant increases in voter turnout). With the total spend on political advertising in 2020 estimated at $10 billion even a small share could provide a meaningful boost to Snapchat (TTM revenues $1.54 billion) over the next year. The man credited with bringing T-Mobile back from the dead, CEO John Legere, announced he was moving on and was to be replaced by COO Mike Sievert. The market took the news in its stride, reassured by announcements that there would be no change in strategy and realising perhaps that the time had come for a more conventional approach. Nevertheless Mr Sievert has some big shoes to fill. PayPal said it was putting part of its cash pile to use with a transformative $4 billion acquisition of, discount-finding tool, Honey Science. The stock fell 1.5% but the news was well received by analysts who said it should drive engagement and develop a deeper relationship with consumers and merchants. Bad news for Slack Technologies as a blog post this week by Microsoft Corporation revealed its Microsoft “Teams” service now has more than 20 million users. Teams seems to be gaining momentum, which is clearly a negative for Slack. The latest numbers suggest Teams added 7 million new daily active users in the past five months compared to adding just 1 million new daily active users in the previous 10 months. Finally the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) released data on Monday, showing a 12% year-over-year declines in appliance shipments. That sounds like bad news for appliance makers such as Whirlpool but, as of Friday, the stock was little changed. Value stocks (Fluent Inc) Fluent Inc jumped 20% after management sent a strong signal to the market. However I think it could go significantly higher. The company operates in a fast growing, fast changing and competitive sector - digital marketing. It has built up a huge database of (150 million+) that it can target on behalf of clients. It uses competitions to get details and, importantly, gets consent from clients to contact them. A former CEO has said that if European data protection laws were introduced in the US it would give Fluent a huge advantage as it (largely) already has consent. Indeed Europe offers a huge potential market for Fluent which has already reportedly started testing in the UK. However Fluent's stock has not had a good year. The data driven digital marketer is down 75% (with a valuation of 0.5x sales and 0.6x book) from highs after reducing guidance, not once but twice. That by itself is an issue as it suggests that, not only is there a problem but, management dont understand how bad it is. The overall change in guidance was actually not that bad (not something that suggests a 75% SP drop is required). Full year sales are still forecast to rise 6.4% although EBITDA will drop 34%. Q3 and Q4 numbers are down on 2018 but Q4 still reveals an annualised EBITDA of $20m which compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million. I think there is more upside potential. Management have been clear throughout that the outlook for the core advertising platform is very good. The drop in revenues and rising costs are due to the company exiting peripheral ventures that have been explored and not met revenue/return targets (as well as a couple of bad debts deemed unrecoverable). They said they did experience some softness at the core for approximately 60 days, spanning mid-August to mid-October. On the November 11 conference call CEO Ryan Schulke said "Since mid-October, we have regained our traction and to date, we've seen trending improve from top-line revenue and media margin perspective." That has been supported by Tuesdays share buy back announcement with Schulke saying “This stock repurchase program reflects the continued confidence we have in the fundamentals and long-term prospects of our business, further supported by improvements we have seen in our core commercial trending following a challenging third quarter,” Management clearly want to send out a signal that the core business is improving again and the SP jump of 20% is a good start but it is still down 30% on a week ago and 75% on April highs. (as mentioned above the annualised EBITDA of $20m compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million) Growth stocks (Target) Target reported excellent results as it appears customers warm to the concept of same day pick up from a Target store. More hassle in some ways but it eliminates a load of cardboard boxes that would have to be recycled. Third-quarter results shot past guidance as store traffic and sales growth accelerated. Revenue grew 4.7% to $18.7 billion, beating analyst expectations of $18.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose 25% to $1.36 after the company had forecast EPS between $1.04 and $1.24 three months ago. Stock ended the week up 24%. 25% EPS growth compares favorably to the 20x 2019 PE. Highly Speculative Pharmaceuticals (Karuna, Myovant and Hepion) Karuna Therapeutics jumped 440% on Monday after reporting a very positive mid-stage clinical trial for its lead candidate, KarXT, for the treatment of acute psychosis in patients with schizophrenia Jeffrey Lieberman, M.D., professor and chairman of the Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Karuna’s scientific advisory board said “The results of the Phase 2 trial are impressive and encouraging because they indicate that KarXT, if approved, could represent a game-changing therapeutic advance in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia,” He added. “The effectiveness of antipsychotics has been limited by the frequent and serious side effects of first- and second-generation drugs which are difficult for many patients to tolerate, are potentially harmful, and lead to high rates of discontinuation and relapse. In addition to its novel mechanism of action, KarXT could be a new therapeutic option that has the potential to offer robust efficacy devoid of weight gain, metabolic effects and extrapyramidal {involuntary movement} side effects.” The second point is important as KarXT antipsychotic drugs are notorious for negative side effects that often cause patients to discontinue use of the drugs. Karuna reported that discontinuation rates in the study were similar between patients receiving KarXT and those receiving placebo. The company said that there was "no evidence of somnolence {drowsiness}, extrapyramidal side effects or weight gain relative to placebo" -- all of which are common worrisome side effects of current antipsychotic drugs. The company also said it planned to explore other CNS disorders that could benefit from the treatment, such as psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease as well as the management of pain Back of the envelope, I would consider the probability of approval has increased from about 20% to 40% and that the lack of side effects should make it possible for the company to take a 40% share in a $10 billion market. 30% margins with forward PE of 14 seems reasonable. That would yield a valuation of $6.7 billion (40% x 40% x $10 billion x 30% x 14 = $6.72 billion) compared to yesterday’s close at $1.99 billion. That looks attractive even before considering potential applications for psychosis in Alzheimers or pain management. Shares of small-cap biotech Myovant Sciences Ltd doubled after Myovant reported on Tuesday that the the Phase 3 study that evaluated once-daily oral relugolix 120mg in men with advanced prostate cancer met the primary efficacy endpoint, as well as six key secondary endpoints. Now as far as I can see, relugolix faces some competition in its end market meaning its not going to have the market all to itself. One commentator suggested it would win just 5% of the market. I think that is low, men don't like having their testosterone levels suppressed (given the side effects of hot flashes, fatigue and loss of sexual desire and function) and relugolix can help reduce the time patients need to use the therapy. Data has shown relugolix quickly lowered testosterone to castration levels and the study also showed testosterone levels recovered faster after patients stopped taking relugolix, which could bring benefit for drug holidays or intermittent therapy. Consequently I think a 10%+ market share along with 85% probability of success, 3 million people in the US with prostate cancer and cost of treatment $4,400 (based on firmagon estimates) then we have a TAM of $1.1 bn (10% x 85% x 3m x cost of treatment $4,400). With 30% margins and a PE multiple of 10 you get a target valuation of $3.4 billion compared to current market cap of $1.15 billion. I suspect the 30% margin assumption or the 10% market share assumption maybe too high. But even if that is the case, I dont think Myovant's current mcap is expensive. Stock closed up 128% with market cap of $1.26 billion. Now for an off the scale speculative stock. Please exercise extreme caution. New Jersey-based Hepion Pharmaceuticals (market cap $12.4 million) reported on Thursday that its CRV431 treatment prevented the development of liver cirrhosis in a highly aggressive, preclinical model of liver disease in an animal study. "The results align with previous findings in other experimental models and highlight the tremendous potential of CRV431 as a treatment for liver diseases, including NASH, where progression to cirrhosis is a primary medical concern," said Hepion CEO Robert Foster. I’ll just say caveat emptor and it’ll be a great a story if it works out. Insider (Nesco Holdings) On Wednesday, Chief Executive Officer Lee Jacobson purchased $352,154 worth of Nesco Holdings, picking up the stock after a drop of almost 70% this year. Nesco is one of the largest specialty equipment rental providers to the electric utility transmission, telecom and rail industries in North America. It reported mixed Q3 results a couple of weeks ago with revenues down 2.6% and a loss of $18 million but the company generated solid revenue growth in both the equipment rental (up 7.3%) and parts, tools, and accessories businesses (up 51.2%), as well as the 13th consecutive quarter of growth in adjusted EBITDA (up 7.5%). At the time Lee Jacobson, CEO of Nesco, remarked "We continue to see considerable opportunities for organic growth, supported by growing customer backlogs within our core electric utility markets, increased market penetration of the rail and telecom markets and further penetration of the parts tools and accessories offering across our existing equipment rental customer base. Shortages for specialty rental equipment in the markets we serve have continued and our customer rental contract periods have lengthened to record levels, further supporting our planned investment in fleet growth.” That is a very positive outlook from Mr Jacobson and, having almost doubled his shareholding, he has backed that up with his own cash. With the stock trading on 0.6x revenues other investors may also want to have a closer look. If you would like to see my regular updates during the week then please “FOLLOW” me. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Some of the stocks mentioned are HIGH RISK AND SPECULATIVE. Please do your own research.	604	InterestingNews1	1,574,500,842	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/e0fn0i/some_interesting_news_in_the_stock_market_this/
e0fn0i	f8dz2qn	This is a great summarized report. Focused on key details, very insightful. I'll be following.	5	Chronjawn	1,574,514,151	Some interesting news in the stock market this week	As usual I’ll start off with a high level round up of the large caps before adding a bit more detail on the value and speculative stocks. TJX and Target both reported excellent results. However, it was not a good week in general for retail with Macy’s reporting a 3.5% drop in same store sales and a data breach. Kohls dropped 20% after reporting a miss, cutting guidance and pointing to an “increasingly competitive promotional environment”. Home Depot results were mixed and the stock price also dropped 10%. A little harsh perhaps after what was a narrow miss and considering comps were still up a very respectable 3.5%. A number of analysts followed the sell off with reassuring comments that the market for home improvement products remained strong with improving home affordability, lower interest rates, aging baby boomers spending money on remodelling and millennials entering the housing market. Elsewhere, Snapchat announced it will be fact-checking all political advertising in a move that offers a middle ground between Facebook and Twitter and may help it take a larger share of political advertising budgets ahead of the 2020 elections. Advertisers will be keen to use Snapchat’s platform which remains highly popular among younger demographics (which are seeing significant increases in voter turnout). With the total spend on political advertising in 2020 estimated at $10 billion even a small share could provide a meaningful boost to Snapchat (TTM revenues $1.54 billion) over the next year. The man credited with bringing T-Mobile back from the dead, CEO John Legere, announced he was moving on and was to be replaced by COO Mike Sievert. The market took the news in its stride, reassured by announcements that there would be no change in strategy and realising perhaps that the time had come for a more conventional approach. Nevertheless Mr Sievert has some big shoes to fill. PayPal said it was putting part of its cash pile to use with a transformative $4 billion acquisition of, discount-finding tool, Honey Science. The stock fell 1.5% but the news was well received by analysts who said it should drive engagement and develop a deeper relationship with consumers and merchants. Bad news for Slack Technologies as a blog post this week by Microsoft Corporation revealed its Microsoft “Teams” service now has more than 20 million users. Teams seems to be gaining momentum, which is clearly a negative for Slack. The latest numbers suggest Teams added 7 million new daily active users in the past five months compared to adding just 1 million new daily active users in the previous 10 months. Finally the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) released data on Monday, showing a 12% year-over-year declines in appliance shipments. That sounds like bad news for appliance makers such as Whirlpool but, as of Friday, the stock was little changed. Value stocks (Fluent Inc) Fluent Inc jumped 20% after management sent a strong signal to the market. However I think it could go significantly higher. The company operates in a fast growing, fast changing and competitive sector - digital marketing. It has built up a huge database of (150 million+) that it can target on behalf of clients. It uses competitions to get details and, importantly, gets consent from clients to contact them. A former CEO has said that if European data protection laws were introduced in the US it would give Fluent a huge advantage as it (largely) already has consent. Indeed Europe offers a huge potential market for Fluent which has already reportedly started testing in the UK. However Fluent's stock has not had a good year. The data driven digital marketer is down 75% (with a valuation of 0.5x sales and 0.6x book) from highs after reducing guidance, not once but twice. That by itself is an issue as it suggests that, not only is there a problem but, management dont understand how bad it is. The overall change in guidance was actually not that bad (not something that suggests a 75% SP drop is required). Full year sales are still forecast to rise 6.4% although EBITDA will drop 34%. Q3 and Q4 numbers are down on 2018 but Q4 still reveals an annualised EBITDA of $20m which compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million. I think there is more upside potential. Management have been clear throughout that the outlook for the core advertising platform is very good. The drop in revenues and rising costs are due to the company exiting peripheral ventures that have been explored and not met revenue/return targets (as well as a couple of bad debts deemed unrecoverable). They said they did experience some softness at the core for approximately 60 days, spanning mid-August to mid-October. On the November 11 conference call CEO Ryan Schulke said "Since mid-October, we have regained our traction and to date, we've seen trending improve from top-line revenue and media margin perspective." That has been supported by Tuesdays share buy back announcement with Schulke saying “This stock repurchase program reflects the continued confidence we have in the fundamentals and long-term prospects of our business, further supported by improvements we have seen in our core commercial trending following a challenging third quarter,” Management clearly want to send out a signal that the core business is improving again and the SP jump of 20% is a good start but it is still down 30% on a week ago and 75% on April highs. (as mentioned above the annualised EBITDA of $20m compares favorably to the current market cap of $130 million) Growth stocks (Target) Target reported excellent results as it appears customers warm to the concept of same day pick up from a Target store. More hassle in some ways but it eliminates a load of cardboard boxes that would have to be recycled. Third-quarter results shot past guidance as store traffic and sales growth accelerated. Revenue grew 4.7% to $18.7 billion, beating analyst expectations of $18.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose 25% to $1.36 after the company had forecast EPS between $1.04 and $1.24 three months ago. Stock ended the week up 24%. 25% EPS growth compares favorably to the 20x 2019 PE. Highly Speculative Pharmaceuticals (Karuna, Myovant and Hepion) Karuna Therapeutics jumped 440% on Monday after reporting a very positive mid-stage clinical trial for its lead candidate, KarXT, for the treatment of acute psychosis in patients with schizophrenia Jeffrey Lieberman, M.D., professor and chairman of the Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Karuna’s scientific advisory board said “The results of the Phase 2 trial are impressive and encouraging because they indicate that KarXT, if approved, could represent a game-changing therapeutic advance in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia,” He added. “The effectiveness of antipsychotics has been limited by the frequent and serious side effects of first- and second-generation drugs which are difficult for many patients to tolerate, are potentially harmful, and lead to high rates of discontinuation and relapse. In addition to its novel mechanism of action, KarXT could be a new therapeutic option that has the potential to offer robust efficacy devoid of weight gain, metabolic effects and extrapyramidal {involuntary movement} side effects.” The second point is important as KarXT antipsychotic drugs are notorious for negative side effects that often cause patients to discontinue use of the drugs. Karuna reported that discontinuation rates in the study were similar between patients receiving KarXT and those receiving placebo. The company said that there was "no evidence of somnolence {drowsiness}, extrapyramidal side effects or weight gain relative to placebo" -- all of which are common worrisome side effects of current antipsychotic drugs. The company also said it planned to explore other CNS disorders that could benefit from the treatment, such as psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease as well as the management of pain Back of the envelope, I would consider the probability of approval has increased from about 20% to 40% and that the lack of side effects should make it possible for the company to take a 40% share in a $10 billion market. 30% margins with forward PE of 14 seems reasonable. That would yield a valuation of $6.7 billion (40% x 40% x $10 billion x 30% x 14 = $6.72 billion) compared to yesterday’s close at $1.99 billion. That looks attractive even before considering potential applications for psychosis in Alzheimers or pain management. Shares of small-cap biotech Myovant Sciences Ltd doubled after Myovant reported on Tuesday that the the Phase 3 study that evaluated once-daily oral relugolix 120mg in men with advanced prostate cancer met the primary efficacy endpoint, as well as six key secondary endpoints. Now as far as I can see, relugolix faces some competition in its end market meaning its not going to have the market all to itself. One commentator suggested it would win just 5% of the market. I think that is low, men don't like having their testosterone levels suppressed (given the side effects of hot flashes, fatigue and loss of sexual desire and function) and relugolix can help reduce the time patients need to use the therapy. Data has shown relugolix quickly lowered testosterone to castration levels and the study also showed testosterone levels recovered faster after patients stopped taking relugolix, which could bring benefit for drug holidays or intermittent therapy. Consequently I think a 10%+ market share along with 85% probability of success, 3 million people in the US with prostate cancer and cost of treatment $4,400 (based on firmagon estimates) then we have a TAM of $1.1 bn (10% x 85% x 3m x cost of treatment $4,400). With 30% margins and a PE multiple of 10 you get a target valuation of $3.4 billion compared to current market cap of $1.15 billion. I suspect the 30% margin assumption or the 10% market share assumption maybe too high. But even if that is the case, I dont think Myovant's current mcap is expensive. Stock closed up 128% with market cap of $1.26 billion. Now for an off the scale speculative stock. Please exercise extreme caution. New Jersey-based Hepion Pharmaceuticals (market cap $12.4 million) reported on Thursday that its CRV431 treatment prevented the development of liver cirrhosis in a highly aggressive, preclinical model of liver disease in an animal study. "The results align with previous findings in other experimental models and highlight the tremendous potential of CRV431 as a treatment for liver diseases, including NASH, where progression to cirrhosis is a primary medical concern," said Hepion CEO Robert Foster. I’ll just say caveat emptor and it’ll be a great a story if it works out. Insider (Nesco Holdings) On Wednesday, Chief Executive Officer Lee Jacobson purchased $352,154 worth of Nesco Holdings, picking up the stock after a drop of almost 70% this year. Nesco is one of the largest specialty equipment rental providers to the electric utility transmission, telecom and rail industries in North America. It reported mixed Q3 results a couple of weeks ago with revenues down 2.6% and a loss of $18 million but the company generated solid revenue growth in both the equipment rental (up 7.3%) and parts, tools, and accessories businesses (up 51.2%), as well as the 13th consecutive quarter of growth in adjusted EBITDA (up 7.5%). At the time Lee Jacobson, CEO of Nesco, remarked "We continue to see considerable opportunities for organic growth, supported by growing customer backlogs within our core electric utility markets, increased market penetration of the rail and telecom markets and further penetration of the parts tools and accessories offering across our existing equipment rental customer base. Shortages for specialty rental equipment in the markets we serve have continued and our customer rental contract periods have lengthened to record levels, further supporting our planned investment in fleet growth.” That is a very positive outlook from Mr Jacobson and, having almost doubled his shareholding, he has backed that up with his own cash. With the stock trading on 0.6x revenues other investors may also want to have a closer look. If you would like to see my regular updates during the week then please “FOLLOW” me. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Stocks are risky and not suitable for everybody. Some of the stocks mentioned are HIGH RISK AND SPECULATIVE. Please do your own research.	604	InterestingNews1	1,574,500,842	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/e0fn0i/some_interesting_news_in_the_stock_market_this/
dnm2fh	f5ciwqk	180m when talking about Market Cap means the company is with 180 million dollars. 18B means 18 Billion dollars. Volume means how many shares of that stock were traded so far that day. 40k means there was 40 thousand shares traded. Average volume(3m) is the average daily volume over the last 3 months. 60k means that on average there are 60 thousand shares traded each day. Hope that helps	116	Jakeep16	1,572,135,745	How do I properly read stock stats like this?	I use Yahoo Finance app on my phone when I'm not near a computer. I'm trying to learn more about the stock market. If I see a market cap listed as 180M, I assume that that is 180 million dollars? I see Volume as 40.86K. Is that 40,000 shares of total volume making up the whole company or what? But then that doesn't make sense because right after that is the "Avg Vol (3m)" field, which I presume to be average volume over 3 months(?) is 60.90K. Why is it presented like that? How do I read it and can someone please explain the meaning of them in more detailed terms?	47	piano_man37	1,572,135,278	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/dnm2fh/how_do_i_properly_read_stock_stats_like_this/
dnm2fh	f5ciy4h	That’s the daily traded volume. You can look up total issued shares.	6	SwitchedOnNow	1,572,135,764	How do I properly read stock stats like this?	I use Yahoo Finance app on my phone when I'm not near a computer. I'm trying to learn more about the stock market. If I see a market cap listed as 180M, I assume that that is 180 million dollars? I see Volume as 40.86K. Is that 40,000 shares of total volume making up the whole company or what? But then that doesn't make sense because right after that is the "Avg Vol (3m)" field, which I presume to be average volume over 3 months(?) is 60.90K. Why is it presented like that? How do I read it and can someone please explain the meaning of them in more detailed terms?	47	piano_man37	1,572,135,278	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/dnm2fh/how_do_i_properly_read_stock_stats_like_this/
cqln02	ewy1hzv	Haven't had time to look at all of your details yet. I did pull out some of my money yesterday but not because of the yield curve, there is also bad economic data coming out of China and Germany. Trump is probably right that the trade war is hurting China worse but what he doesn't get is the Chinese leaders are also playing with other peoples money and they don't have to worry about re-election. They are not going to cave and even if they do it will take time to undo the damage and some business relationships will never go back to what they were.	15	Sislar	1,565,872,790	Yield Curve inverted and markets got scared, I made a Spreadsheet with "Recession"-predictors	So there has been some news, memes, discussions and doomsday predictions since the yield curve inversion (and frankly much longer than that). Some people seem to think that the economy MUST go south because they believe markets have gone up too much (or they are just late to the game and don't want to buy on ATH..). On the topic of believing, I am long, positive and hopeful. But I don't ignore hard data. Now, I thought it could be healthy to have a discussion about it based on actual data. Here's a spreadsheet that I made: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18A8gdTJl3nOPRWjTqsJzH4zgV8cOfunwKkQ7zmH2eVU/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18A8gdTJl3nOPRWjTqsJzH4zgV8cOfunwKkQ7zmH2eVU/edit?usp=sharing) Let's talk about it. Yield Curve - This is mostly what has spooked the market and if you look at history, rightfully so. >The term yield curve refers to the relationship between the short- and long-term interest rates of fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. The 10Y Treasury has gone below the 3M Treasury. When investors (that's "us") buy long Treasury bonds because we believe they offer a safe harbor and as a result of the rotation to long maturities, yields can fall below short-term rates, forming an inverted yield curve. Since 1956, equities have peaked six times after the start of an inversion, and the economy has fallen into recession within seven to 24 months. Stock Market Capitalization to GDP for United States \- This is also referred to as the Buffet Indicator. > probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. - Warren Buffet We are at \~138.5% right now. That's higher than around the financial crisis of 2008 and above the 20 year average (and mean). The US stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of -1.5%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. This includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 1.91%. If we look at the same numbers for China and Germany (two other large economies) they do not provide the same picture, but who cares? if US falls, the rest comes down with it... and anyway, they are both higher than their 20Y avg. and mean. Tobin's Q \- It has a lot of uses, but in this case it shows the value of the stock market divided by the corporate net worth. A Q between 0 and 1 means that the stock market is undervalued, and above 1 overvalued. Currently we're at 1.142 and was at 0.7668 on the date of the 2008 crisis. Other predictors \- in the spreadsheet, you will find a bunch of other KPIs and when I look at them I can't say that I am worried for them as standalone. They are all looking good, but as the "heavy" predictors points to a recession it makes me think that right now we are all just happily unaware. Again, I'm a bullish guy when it comes to stocks and markets but looking at say PS, PB, PE etc. it looks a bit overvalued, add to that the above discussed and it does actually look a bit shaky. Then again, after a yield curve inversion, history has showed that the markets go down within months. And those months, could be several, and several can turn into years. Will I take home profit now and stand outside the market? A market that could possibly keep rising for another 2 years? No. But I will be more careful about what I invest in or where take larger positions. I will make sure that I keep some recession-resilient positions as diversification and that I have cash in hand for WHEN the market goes south, so I can find valuable companies to a lower price at the time. Let's discuss - Do you agree or disagree? why? What's your strategy? Am I wrong here and if so why? There may be errors or perhaps I've missed something, then feel free to point that out. I can be lazy, give me a break. Disclaimer: I own stocks, I am long, I want to be bullish. I don't want markets to crash. These are just my opinions, you cannot take them as recommendations or advice. It's all just for fun. etc.	111	rwiman	1,565,846,632	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/cqln02/yield_curve_inverted_and_markets_got_scared_i/
cqln02	ewy9vy6	I think that Investors and media are too focused on the yield curve, but it's just a fear indicator about the future, and can't be used alone. Jobless claims, for example, is a more important economic indicator. The research paper [The Recession Playbook](http://www.mediafire.com/file/5py1d1zrii5rr1a/The_Recession_Playbook.pdf/file) from Morgan Stanley is a good read, and I believe the authors group most of the indicators you listed in your spreadsheet. I personally like to look at the weekly NYSE AD line, LEI, and jobless claims. Yield curve comes last, but with so much noise about this indicator, I don't even need to look at it. While I'm more cautious, I still remain bullish for the mid-term until I see divergences in at least the NYSE AD line.	5	catoun	1,565,877,388	Yield Curve inverted and markets got scared, I made a Spreadsheet with "Recession"-predictors	So there has been some news, memes, discussions and doomsday predictions since the yield curve inversion (and frankly much longer than that). Some people seem to think that the economy MUST go south because they believe markets have gone up too much (or they are just late to the game and don't want to buy on ATH..). On the topic of believing, I am long, positive and hopeful. But I don't ignore hard data. Now, I thought it could be healthy to have a discussion about it based on actual data. Here's a spreadsheet that I made: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18A8gdTJl3nOPRWjTqsJzH4zgV8cOfunwKkQ7zmH2eVU/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18A8gdTJl3nOPRWjTqsJzH4zgV8cOfunwKkQ7zmH2eVU/edit?usp=sharing) Let's talk about it. Yield Curve - This is mostly what has spooked the market and if you look at history, rightfully so. >The term yield curve refers to the relationship between the short- and long-term interest rates of fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. The 10Y Treasury has gone below the 3M Treasury. When investors (that's "us") buy long Treasury bonds because we believe they offer a safe harbor and as a result of the rotation to long maturities, yields can fall below short-term rates, forming an inverted yield curve. Since 1956, equities have peaked six times after the start of an inversion, and the economy has fallen into recession within seven to 24 months. Stock Market Capitalization to GDP for United States \- This is also referred to as the Buffet Indicator. > probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. - Warren Buffet We are at \~138.5% right now. That's higher than around the financial crisis of 2008 and above the 20 year average (and mean). The US stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of -1.5%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. This includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 1.91%. If we look at the same numbers for China and Germany (two other large economies) they do not provide the same picture, but who cares? if US falls, the rest comes down with it... and anyway, they are both higher than their 20Y avg. and mean. Tobin's Q \- It has a lot of uses, but in this case it shows the value of the stock market divided by the corporate net worth. A Q between 0 and 1 means that the stock market is undervalued, and above 1 overvalued. Currently we're at 1.142 and was at 0.7668 on the date of the 2008 crisis. Other predictors \- in the spreadsheet, you will find a bunch of other KPIs and when I look at them I can't say that I am worried for them as standalone. They are all looking good, but as the "heavy" predictors points to a recession it makes me think that right now we are all just happily unaware. Again, I'm a bullish guy when it comes to stocks and markets but looking at say PS, PB, PE etc. it looks a bit overvalued, add to that the above discussed and it does actually look a bit shaky. Then again, after a yield curve inversion, history has showed that the markets go down within months. And those months, could be several, and several can turn into years. Will I take home profit now and stand outside the market? A market that could possibly keep rising for another 2 years? No. But I will be more careful about what I invest in or where take larger positions. I will make sure that I keep some recession-resilient positions as diversification and that I have cash in hand for WHEN the market goes south, so I can find valuable companies to a lower price at the time. Let's discuss - Do you agree or disagree? why? What's your strategy? Am I wrong here and if so why? There may be errors or perhaps I've missed something, then feel free to point that out. I can be lazy, give me a break. Disclaimer: I own stocks, I am long, I want to be bullish. I don't want markets to crash. These are just my opinions, you cannot take them as recommendations or advice. It's all just for fun. etc.	111	rwiman	1,565,846,632	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/cqln02/yield_curve_inverted_and_markets_got_scared_i/
bnjuw7	en6darf	MMM has been on my radar for a while. I bought some shares at $175 this past week. Solid company with a great track record. The tarrifs will have an impact on MMM, as it will with many other companies. As far as your time frame, MMM can absolutely go down further. Look at 2009, when it dropped 50%. Even during the Great Recession MMM was still raising it's dividend. After doing my own analysis, I am comfortable with the price I paid. If it goes down, which I believe it very well could, I will just reinvested the dividends and maybe add more shares. I plan to hold forever unless something extreme happens to the company. Look at their financials, listen to earnings calls, and see at what price would you be comfortable investing.	11	simple_money	1,557,627,441	Thoughts of MMM(3M)???	What are your opinion about MMM(3M) these day after trade talk between China and US? Does it hit the bottom yet??? If I wanna buy as dividend stock right now and put on long term (1 year at least) Is good to buy or wait and see? Any advice will be great Thank you	13	changtaiwan	1,557,626,007	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/bnjuw7/thoughts_of_mmm3m/
bivwtw	em3z1ao	I have a huge position in adobe. You could really argue it both ways. On one hand, they have NOT reached market cap, but it is my perception (I have family in the company) that they have hit a lot of their 'whales' and are having trouble transitioning their business model to one that focuses on retention, rather than hunting down new work. I'm hodl'ing out of principal for the next two years, but I think the stock is very fairly priced atm.	6	IS_JOKE_COMRADE	1,556,591,544	$TWLO $MDB $WDAY $ADBE	Doing DD on the above. Adding 2 of the 4 to a portfolio for a long term hold 1y + (may reduce/add to position in the meantime, but not worried if it shits the bed in the next 3m/6m e.t.c) What are your thoughts and why * TWLO - market leader, grown crazily - are there still massive gains to be had? * MDB - flying under the radar but still a newish IPO, unique in its database offering, high growth but again can it be maintained? Database TAM growing at much higher CAGR then HCM, at c. 60% vs 10% makes me more bullish on MDB. Anyone know any other specific tech verticals growing higher? * ADBE - largest cap out of the lot, confident in long term prospects but thinking about opportunity cost of money deployed in the others for higher growth * WDAY - notice its increase use in enterprises, market leader in Gartners magic quadrant for HCM Any others favourites feel free to mention	18	dvnielng	1,556,578,243	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/bivwtw/twlo_mdb_wday_adbe/
bh7kbp	elqnmto	Seeing that I just paid $10 for a 5’ roll of 3m car tape I am not surprised. Fuck 3m	107	GnattyDreads	1,556,195,430	3M to cut 2,000 jobs globally, slashes its 2019 profit outlook	https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/3m-earnings-q1-2019.html Here are the numbers 3M reported: Earnings per share: $2.23, adjusted vs. $2.49 expected, per Refinitiv survey of analysts Revenue: $7.863 billion vs. $8.025 billion expected, per Refinitiv survey	275	coolcomfort123	1,556,192,244	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/bh7kbp/3m_to_cut_2000_jobs_globally_slashes_its_2019/
bh7kbp	elqud3e	If this falls is there any reason to look at it as a value investment for long term?	14	kudaros	1,556,200,248	3M to cut 2,000 jobs globally, slashes its 2019 profit outlook	https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/3m-earnings-q1-2019.html Here are the numbers 3M reported: Earnings per share: $2.23, adjusted vs. $2.49 expected, per Refinitiv survey of analysts Revenue: $7.863 billion vs. $8.025 billion expected, per Refinitiv survey	275	coolcomfort123	1,556,192,244	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/bh7kbp/3m_to_cut_2000_jobs_globally_slashes_its_2019/
bh7kbp	elqqgtq	I just sold my 3m last week because it was overpriced. Maybe i will get to buy it back but it would really have to fall	17	r_silver1	1,556,197,616	3M to cut 2,000 jobs globally, slashes its 2019 profit outlook	https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/3m-earnings-q1-2019.html Here are the numbers 3M reported: Earnings per share: $2.23, adjusted vs. $2.49 expected, per Refinitiv survey of analysts Revenue: $7.863 billion vs. $8.025 billion expected, per Refinitiv survey	275	coolcomfort123	1,556,192,244	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/bh7kbp/3m_to_cut_2000_jobs_globally_slashes_its_2019/
bh7kbp	elr21bb	When you're about to graduate in chem eng and 3M is one of your industry leaders. Best degree choice ever.	13	ameerricle	1,556,205,115	3M to cut 2,000 jobs globally, slashes its 2019 profit outlook	https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/3m-earnings-q1-2019.html Here are the numbers 3M reported: Earnings per share: $2.23, adjusted vs. $2.49 expected, per Refinitiv survey of analysts Revenue: $7.863 billion vs. $8.025 billion expected, per Refinitiv survey	275	coolcomfort123	1,556,192,244	3m	stocks	https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/bh7kbp/3m_to_cut_2000_jobs_globally_slashes_its_2019/
1lk6aes	mzpktk0	https://preview.redd.it/…nian bitches LOL	9	Positive_Response977	1,750,864,347	My first ten bagger 🥹	I unfortunately had to sell like 300 shares of PLTR to buy myself a truck earlier this year cus I deserve it (and also mainly cus my 12 year old beater sedan was biting the dust) but damn do I wish I had 300 more shares of it rn 😔	520	69mmMayoCannon	1,750,859,610	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/8wll7egjw29f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzdzk15	not yolo enough gotta go 2.3m on calls expiring this week	519	collucho	1,750,708,624	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzevq7w	It’s all marketing, the pills can be obtained by generic pharmacies for cents on the dollar.	74	Next-Problem728	1,750,718,245	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzeolhi	Just get generic finasteride. I get a 90 count from Costco for like $9 lmao. You don’t need a fancy bottle for stuff that’s been WIDELY available for decades. Generic minoxidil (the foam) is also cheap af at Costco and you don’t need a rx. I have absolutely no clue how this joke of a company makes any money.	52	ASUS_USUS_WEALLSUS	1,750,715,948	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzdzg1r	Their top product literally shrinks dicks.	139	Chumpleshitskin	1,750,708,593	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzdzdmh	Just got hair loss meds from them. Hims to the moon 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀	58	GarlicPlenty9407	1,750,708,574	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzegvsk	honestly… I don’t hate this. Especially with that tweet from the CRO. God luck! Will be following on my paper acc.	12	BullyMog	1,750,713,583	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mze51un	A halfway decent marketing campaign from Amazon pharmacy and HIMS goes discount bin until it gets bought up. Just my $0.02.	33	ThetaGrim	1,750,710,193	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzf6kat	The dip in UNH is irrational, but this one, idk man. Suppose it turns out they are cutting pills together with low quality meds from China lmao, it would be so over	8	iamoflurkmoar	1,750,721,802	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzejvz5	People love to short HIMS. It was a good day for them	6	Maximum-Tone164	1,750,714,497	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1liqjws	mzezi37	If you wanted to throw away 2.3M you could’ve just given it to me	5	BiggieMoe01	1,750,719,479	$2.3m HIMS yolo	I am all in on HIMS. My view is that this is an overreaction as outlined by the HIMS CEO on X (https://x.com/andrewdudum/status/1937188022027768304). This is still a company growing at more than 100% per year at 40x forward earnings. The Trump administration will continue to deregulate across the board, so I don’t believe their core business model is at risk for at least the next 3 years. Macro liquidity is going higher along with HIMS continuing to be a retail favorite. This is an opportunity to buy a market leader at a significant discount. Could it go lower? Absolutely, but in my mind the likelihood of this stock making significant new highs this year is quite good. Disclaimer: Not financial advice I am not a financial advisor. In fact, I can barely advise myself. This post is for entertainment purposes only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. Any resemblance to financial wisdom is purely coincidental.	705	trendspeculator	1,750,708,348	3m	wallstreetbets	https://i.redd.it/6gf5pc8req8f1.jpeg
1l37l3m	mvyneet	Reddit will Give you imaginary retard award.	364	tomerh120	1,749,049,116	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvynjau	Nah they removing emojis, I'll feel bullish when we get them back ![img](emote\|t5_2th52\|27421)	253	cannythecat	1,749,049,155	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvypv4t	This is what r/wallstreetsbets is all about. I'm here for it	163	scottmotorrad	1,749,049,819	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyu14c	Me with 12 shares… We are the same! ![img](emote\|t5_2th52\|27189)	26	s1ckc1pry	1,749,051,006	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyml50	Yes, the data of millions of bots is incredibly valuable.	293	BasicDifficulty129	1,749,048,887	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvypl8b	Reddit will pump like crazy in the next few days. Mark my words	47	ImportantGuitarr	1,749,049,740	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyna7k	Yup. People forget the data goldmine RDDT has. If they can monetize ads a bit better and keep growing, this is a long-term multi bagger. Facebook is barely usable, full of bots, unmanaged groups and garbage "suggested" pages (which you can't hide, even if you click it 100 times), also, can't ignore the fact that less people post (personal) stuff on Facebook, only boomers do. RDDT subreddits are what Facebook groups dream to be. With the new generation, Facebook will die off, and more will come to Reddit..	90	AncientGrab1106	1,749,049,083	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyqlh3	great post....mostly agree here and am long...if they an juice their arpu and increase usage intl.. the sky is the limit here i would say......	13	Traditional-Chip8339	1,749,050,028	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvzrd05	Just hit the wire. They're suing Anthropic for copyright infringement. Pretty open and shut case if they have proof they used their API without paying. Shares went up on announcement. [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/reddit-anthropic-lawsuit-ai.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/reddit-anthropic-lawsuit-ai.html)	12	IceEateer	1,749,060,326	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvypph3	I hate this place so god damn much, the stock is going to go up just to spite me personally	54	Current_Employer_308	1,749,049,773	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyqw5m	20% short and has very low float. it just got added to the Russell index and is on track to join the S&P500. i will be surpised if its not 300 by EOY	29	kimperial	1,749,050,113	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyut4c	Reddit is a few lines of code away from wiping out OnlyFans and part of Patreon. I have no idea why they haven't done this already. OnlyFans is valued at around $8B (\~30% of RDDT's current valuation).	25	citizen_of_europa	1,749,051,226	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyuv5p	B A L L S. Scared money don’t make money! In all seriousness, I like this play.	5	Chiiiiipu	1,749,051,242	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyoddk	So you bought it after the spike today? Good god	16	Affectionate_Arm_512	1,749,049,394	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvzkot5	It was Cramers top social media pick. And for that reason… I’m out.	12	someguywitheaphone	1,749,058,485	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvyt783	https://preview.redd.it/…09aa8a4e4b885086	22	Smart_Dev_	1,749,050,771	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mw1u0zz	I’m with you comrade. https://preview.redd.it/lf0gvb9t505f1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=344d841e65a98c8e4c7ac4e453d124402b9b4f98	5	FistyGorilla	1,749,083,034	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mvz3lf1	https://preview.redd.it/…ontent". LMFAO.	15	Bannon9k	1,749,053,721	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l37l3m	mw1drit	PE is... 169. Market cap is 20 bn. How do these retards make money again?	8	Jiggerjuice	1,749,077,526	1.3m $RDDT Bet - Too Many Ways to Win	[YOLO my retirement](https://preview.redd.it/b79sltwwbx4f1.png?width=2762&format=png&auto=webp&s=2da693c6e85ac91a950290dc6ef77677fb3fb36b) TL;DR: Reddit is massively under monetized compared to peers (ARPU of $3.63 vs Meta's $12+), but sitting on the internet's highest quality dataset for AI training. They're already making $100M+ annually from OpenAI/Google at 90%+ margins, with new revenue streams emerging (hedge fund data via ICE, premium subreddits targeting the creator economy). Management has proven they can monetize without killing the community. Multiple ways to win (ARPU growth, data licensing expansion, creator monetization). Thesis: Reddit is the last major platform with truly authentic, human driven conten and every dollar they make from data, ads, or subscriptions flows almost entirely to the bottom line. That combination (community moat + 90% margins + under monetized user base) means there are tons of ways for shareholders to win. Moat/Why Reddit Matters Reddit’s value is in its data. Unlike algorithmic feeds that amplify engagement optimized content, Reddit's community moderated format naturally filters for substantive discussion through upvoting and downvoting mechanisms. This creates a self curating dataset where quality content rises organically. Reddit's niche communities offer domain expertise at scale. Subreddits such as r/AskHistorians or r/PersonalFinance provide high quality, contextual knowledge that is hard to find elsewhere. While other platforms deal with increasing bot activity and AI generated content pollution, Reddit's community moderation creates natural quality controls. Compare this to Meta or Twitter, where content moderation costs eat into margins. Reddit's community does the curation work for free, then Reddit monetizes that curation. That makes Reddit a data goldmine for LLMs. This creates a flywheel of engagement that’s not only sticky for users but incredibly valuable to AI and advertisers. * Reddit is already pulling in \~$100M/year from data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google. * That revenue flows almost entirely to the bottom line, pushing gross margins >90%. * Unlike ad reliant platforms, this is pure margin, recurring revenue. * Reddit has content tagged by subreddit leading to specific and niche domain knowledge which is super valuable for AI training. The CEO and Why Management Can Execute Steve Huffman cofounded Reddit in 2005 but left in 2009 to pursue his own startup journey. At Hipmunk, he gained hands on experience with the monetization challenges Reddit would eventually face: negotiating ad partnerships, building affiliate revenue streams, and learning how to balance aggressive growth targets with maintaining user trust skills that weren't part of his original toolkit as a pure product founder. When Huffman returned as CEO in 2015, Reddit was stagnant, traffic growth had slowed, leadership was paralyzed by fear of change, and basic revenue infrastructure was missing. But he now brought a different perspective, having personally wrestled with the complexities of turning user engagement into sustainable revenue. His turnaround demonstrates he can execute on complex monetization without destroying community value. He overhauled the interface, built mobile functionality, and completely revamped Reddit's ad offerings. More importantly, he implemented content policies and moderator tools that preserved Reddit's authentic culture while making it advertiser friendly. This experience matters for the opportunities ahead premium subreddits, expanded data licensing, international ARPU growth because they all require the same delicate balance Huffman learned through his entrepreneurial journey: extracting maximum revenue from unique community assets without killing what makes them valuable. Growth Catalysts ARPU Tailwinds vs. Facebook/Google/Meta Reddit’s ARPU is currently well below its peers and management is actively working on closing the gap. Current ARPU Gap: * US ARPU: $6.21 (+31% YoY) * Intl ARPU: $1.34 (\~5× lower than US) * Global ARPU: $3.63 (+23% YoY) * Google Benchmark: Google Services generated $77.3 b in Q1 2025 (including $50.7 b search), with €6.35 p/m in Europe (\~$76 per year). * Meta Benchmark: Meta’s ARPP was $10.42 per user in Q1 2025 (\~$12.36 TTM). If Reddit can even approach half of Meta’s or Google’s yield in key markets, ARPU can more than double from here. When Reddit doubles ARPU from $3.63 to \~$7, you're looking at revenue growth with 90%+ gross margins. Even with zero DAU growth, that's \~$3B in annual revenue. Add conservative 20% DAU growth to 130M users, and you're approaching $3.6B in revenue. Right now Reddit’s market cap is 20B with the potential to generate $500M+ in quarterly free cash flow at those levels. And here is how they are going to do it. To increase ARPU Reddit is rolling out: 1. New ad formats (video, search, shopping) & better targeting & analytics for advertisers 2. AI powered content recommendations (already +30% in “Good Visits”) 3. Global machine translation (30+ countries) I’m unsure if Reddit Answers will move the needle but it shows that the team is shipping fast and not afraid to experiment. Emerging Data Monetization Beyond AI Training Reddit is now piloting financial data products through ICE, selling real time sentiment analysis and trend identification to hedge funds. This presents another new potential revenue stream. While still early stage, the addressable market for financial sentiment data is enormous. If Reddit can demonstrate alpha generation from their community discussions, institutional demand could create substantial revenue. Reddit's threaded discussions and voting mechanisms create cleaner sentiment signals than traditional social media noise. If Reddit can prove their data moves markets, they're looking at potentially hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue from the finance vertical alone. The speculative angle is whether other industries (healthcare sentiment, brand monitoring, political analysis) follow suit once Reddit demonstrates the model works with financial services. The Trump Call Anger is the most contagious emotion, and Trump makes people furious, which translates directly to engagement and revenue. During Trump's 2017-2021 term, NYT stock tripled (+227%) on the back of outrage fueled subscription growth, proving that political chaos drives monetizable engagement. Reddit thrives in this environment even more than traditional media. The platform's political subreddits already drive massive traffic during controversies r/politics regularly dominates the front page during major news cycles, and angry users spend significantly more time on platform, driving ad revenue and engagement metrics. As Trump continues generating daily headlines and controversies, Reddit becomes the primary destination for realtime discussion and debate. Unlike passive news consumption, Reddit's format encourages users to engage, argue, and scroll for hours through comment threads. This sustained engagement during Trump's presidency should provide a meaningful tailwind for both user growth and time spent on the platform, directly benefiting Reddit's advertising revenue and data value. Premium Subreddits Right now, NSFW content creators are farming engagement on Reddit for free, then redirecting traffic off platform to make money elsewhere. Reddit sees none of that profit. Reddit has explicitly discussed that they are working on premium subreddits. This keeps users on platform, and skims off that monetization by allowing creators to monetize directly on platform, with Reddit taking a platform fee. Think OnlyFans creators paying Reddit a cut instead of just leeching traffic. This represents 100% incremental revenue with virtually zero marginal cost to Reddit as they're already hosting the content and communities. OnlyFans generated $6.6 billion in gross payments volume in 2023, translating to $1.3 billion in revenue at a 20% take rate and $657 million in pretax profit. If Reddit's premium subreddit model can capture even a small fraction of this creator economy by leveraging their existing massive NSFW user base and superior community features it could substantially add to their revenue mix. Near Term Catalysts Reddit faces several key institutional milestones that could drive significant passive capital inflows. Russell 1000/3000 inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2025, after market close, which should trigger automatic buying from index tracking funds starting that Friday. More significantly, if Reddit maintains its current profitability trajectory and scale, S&P 500 eligibility could arrive by mid 2026. The company's Annual Investor Day on June 9, 2025. I’m unsure if anything will serve as a catalyst for anything I’ve mentioned here but I’m excited to hear what their team is working on. The Google Risk and Why It Doesn’t Matter Reddit’s top line still depends heavily on Google’s search algorithm, so whenever Google tweaks its ranking, Reddit’s traffic and revenue can swing. After Reddit reported Q4 2024 results in late February, the stock sold off sharply when search rankings dipped. The same thing happened in May, despite a strong Q1 2025 beat (year over year revenue up 47%). On the Q1 call, Steve Huffman cautioned that “growth will be bumpy,” noting that April daily active user growth slowed to 17%. Then the stock gave up its gains. In reality, those monthly fluctuations don’t change the bigger picture: Reddit is still adding users and monetizing them at a fast clip. Short term search volatility simply means revenue and growth will be bumpy, but the overall trend remains squarely upward. The market is overplaying Reddit’s “Google dependency”. Even with occasional dips, Reddit’s growth trajectory is intact. Ignore the volatility and focus on the overall trajectory.	883	Pleebug	1,749,048,784	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l37l3m/13m_rddt_bet_too_many_ways_to_win/
1l2by1k	mvrodhi	This stock rules. I have had a hunch that a lot of healthcare is going to take place at home in the future, and I’m just waiting for them to challenge betterhelp for therapists.	7	OhNoMyLands	1,748,958,098	Hims & Hers gains 8% premarket after announcing Zava acquisition, expansion to 3 countries, 1.3M new customers	No paywall: [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/03/hims-hers-to-acquire-zava-european-telehealth-platform.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/03/hims-hers-to-acquire-zava-european-telehealth-platform.html) Hims & Hers Health announced Tuesday it will acquire European telehealth platform Zava in its push to expand globally. “We’re excited to take this moment to really accelerate both the European expansion, but also use this platform as an accelerant as we move into more markets,” Hims & Hers CEO Andrew Dudum told CNBC in an interview. The deal is set to close by mid-year, according to the company’s press release. While terms of the acquisition were not disclosed, the company said details of the transaction will be available in financial disclosures at closing. Shares of Hims & Hers gained about 5% in premarket trading Tuesday. Dudum spoke at length during the company’s first-quarter earnings call in mid-May about the company’s commitment to global expansion. “Early traction in the UK gives us confidence that we can scale out platform globally and extend out mission to help people around the world,” Dudum said at the time. Hims first expanded its global footprint to the United Kingdom in 2021 when it acquired London-based vertical health platform Honest Health. The deal to acquire Zava will expand the company’s services to Ireland, France and Germany and will grow its active customer base by roughly 50%, adding 1.3 million customers to Hims’ existing base of 2.4 million subscribers. Zava CEO David Meinertz, who launched the platform in 2011, said the deal will provide relief to an otherwise overwhelmed European healthcare system. “The medications are priced more competitively than in the U.S. so more people can actually afford it and we are seeing a huge demand,” said Meinertz. “The demand is increasing with additional strains on the statutory systems that telehealth can alleviate.” In the EU, the statutory healthcare system generally refers to the publicly funded health insurance and healthcare delivery systems within individual member states. These systems are universal, providing comprehensive coverage to citizens and residents, although access and coverage can vary. After the acquisition closes, Zava platforms will maintain their branding for a “few quarters” before being rebranded as Hims & Hers, Dudum said. Meinertz will become a general manager of the international business. Dudum noted that while some companies are pulling back or withholding growth outlook given macroeconomic uncertainty, he has full confidence that pushing forward is the right decision. “The pricing on pharmaceuticals is so much more consumer advantageous in broader Europe relative to the U.S.,” said Dudum. “The ability to bring accessible, personalized treatments to customers overseas may be equal or easier than what we see domestically just given the pricing and complexities of insurance and \[pharmacy benefit managers\] and the pricing power that exists here.”	130	callsonreddit	1,748,957,406	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1l2by1k/hims_hers_gains_8_premarket_after_announcing_zava/
1ksme7s	mtmkj4h	Believe or not, calls then more calls. Quantum bros don’t care	41	luoyuke	1,747,906,230	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1ksme7s	mtmnddu	I like that they are not creation a general purpose quantum computer but are doing something called quantum annealing that everyone says is pointless and old. Said Shkrelli who thinks it’s the best short he’s seen in a year	19	Elegant_Suit3963	1,747,907,896	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1ksme7s	mtmllxi	I’ve seen this movie before. Your port dies in the end	12	cryptoguy66	1,747,906,880	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1ksme7s	mtnhu12	Are you actually shorting or buying puts? Shorting this kinda stock is how you get Generational Debt instead of Wealth.	6	UnoptimizedStudent	1,747,920,672	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1ksme7s	mtnq29c	Blah blah blah ![img](emote\|t5_2th52\|4271)	5	Emotional-Shock127	1,747,923,272	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1ksme7s	mtmkva2	Hell yeah. I love haters. Qbts, wolf, (the stock that shall not be named)- they’re all the same.	5	nightgroovez	1,747,906,436	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1ksme7s	mtmo39x	Investor sentiment has got them to the price they are and theres no reason investor sentiment can’t take them further up. Big play to go against quantum at the moment. Lots of bros out there thinking they are on the next AI train to millionaires. Theres safer plays out there thats for sure	7	EfficentBicycle	1,747,908,306	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1ksme7s	mtmxoym	Quantum computing is a big hype that is going nowhere. Yes, they are getting better, but only at solving models that can already be computed effectively anyways... It is like cold fusion: everybody hopes that somebody achieves it at some point, its simply a gamble on if/when/who... But remember just like the last 50 years, within the next 10 years somebody will create a cold fusion reactor \^\^	6	Maxwell196	1,747,913,100	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1ksme7s	mtmm7iq	Another 23andMe and the fake meats, weed stock, and many many others to come.	5	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,907,234	Unpopular opinion on DWAVE(QBTS)	So here is the deal guys, I have been doing some research into D-Wave and here is what I would like to share with the entire community. Let me start with the very basic and something everyone knows already( I hope) they are in the quantum industry, currently there are 6000+ devoting they time in some sort of quantum research, of those 6000, “only” 513 are pure-play , D-Wave is part of the later, so 1/513. ….Yes its a crowded space. First lets talk about the fundamentals (in the end its all about that anyway) Last year they made 8M of revenue and spend 75M, so they lost almost 70M in 2024. Simple maths so far right. In terms of Price/earnings (the famous P/E) is non, zero, nada, and thats ok for a new company, specially in the early stages. Right? Wrong they exist since 1999, yes you hear that right, 25+ years and since they started operations they were never profitable. 25 years old company. …Let that sink in. Now some red flags are becoming clear, but hey lets calm down, 1 ratio is not enough to give the big picture, one must have a “helicopter view”. 2024 Price to Book (P/B)=35.22 For comparison the average price for a Nasdaq100 company is 4.56. And yes the most valued companies in the world (Apple/Googles…etc) are almost 8 times cheaper than D-Wave. And they (Apple,microsoft…et al)are not the cheapest stock to own by any means. Ok so P/E and P/B are screaming red flags, lets have a look at EV/Revenue as a better metric since it takes into consideration debt and cash on hand, and not only Market Cap. 2024 EV/Revenue is a whopping…wait for it…241 2024 D-Wave EV/Revenue=241, you guys have any idea of how hard this? Again, for comparison the average Nasdaq 100 company sits at just 6.84 Crazy right?… But wait there more… 2024 Price to sales (P/S)=154 this basically means that for $1 they get in revenue they need to spend $154+ For comparison, the average Nasdaq100 company sits at 2.85. Let me get this straight: D-Wave is 75 x expensive that the most valuable companies in the world (and again, those companies are not cheap to own) Am sorry to be repetitive, but I have to say it again: D-Wave is 75x more EXPENSIVE than the MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES in the WORLD. U guys know how much dilution occur last year? 260M, 266,595,867 if u wanna be precise. They are laughing at us retailers while cashing millions and providing for their families, and you guys allow that to happen by buying a laughing stock. It’s a JOKE!!!! Yes, revenue increased 500% in last Q, they sold a single computer for 13M and they did not disclose how long it take them to build(wondering why?). Allow me to explain why, on average it takes 3-5 years, lets be optimistic here and assume the best scenario, lets say they made it in 2 years, world record (and remember if they did that, they would be bragging on the media). The second important question would be, how much it cost them? Well they did not disclose as always. Well, if u take again the best case scenario, and imagine that they build in the last 2 years, it cost 79.3M(2023) + 75.6M (2024) thats the amount they lost in the last 2 years, but this includes everything (COGS: Cost of Good sold, General and Administrative Expenses, R&D,Selling & Marketing) By the way, you know what they spend those 155M of expenses ending 2024 and 2023? Its all salaries, 85% to be more precise. 35% its all for administration and high management salaries, 25% for the research and development team salaries 15% was just for PPE and the last 10% was on marketing. In other words they spend more on high management than in R&D. You know how CRAZYY this is? And one more thing… Last night the CEO is dumping 14,3M shares of the stock after pumping the stock price a day to an all time high with the release of a new QC Advantage2, let me repeat this so that it really sinks in. The CEO of DWave is dumping almost x2 the amount the company made in Revenue as I post this This was allowed to go public via a SPAC, the biggest scam in modern history of investing. Am not going to go into details but please kindly do ur own research. Oh and in the mean time theres no dividend, because…duhhhhhh!!!! Tick tock, the music is stopping. …And yes am shorting as we speak. Full transparency	65	FxxMeAmFamous	1,747,905,933	3m	wallstreetbets	https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ksme7s/unpopular_opinion_on_dwaveqbts/
1iln8nk	mbw5ttm	Really depends on when you want to retire. If I had 3.3 million I’d be gone to some low cost of living tropical country in a heartbeat. But if you like being a doctor and want to work as long as you reasonably can I’d just ignore the numbers and stay the course. I can understand wanting to take some gains off the table though. I honestly would myself, even though statistically I would know that’s not the optimal thing to do. But no one ever went broke taking gains.	826	Largofarburn	1,739,131,127	Does it still make sense to keep “100% buy and hold” SP500 if you have enough wealth at a young age?	35 yo and have amassed $3.3 million in liquid investments (401k, IRA, 457b, hsa, and taxable account combined). Does it really make sense for my situation to blindly “buy and hold” for the next couple decades? It’s much easier to stomach volatility when you are still starting out…a -30% decline on 200K investments is a nothing burger of -60K loss…..however a -30% decline of $3.3M is a loss of $1M. Like at this point what is wrong with taking some chips off the table to try to time the market with this unprecedented geopolitical environment? I’m a physician and the funding cuts this government is possibly going to do healthcare means my high income may no longer be as reliably high in the near future, so I can’t be sure I could make up big losses with just “working it off”	631	achicomp	1,739,130,199	3m	investing	https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1iln8nk/does_it_still_make_sense_to_keep_100_buy_and_hold/
1iln8nk	mbw3z14	> Like at this point what is wrong with taking some chips off the table Nothing. In fact it would be reasonable to withdraw some capital and put it somewhere safe indefinitely (t bills) for personal consumption down the line. But trying to > time the market with this unprecedented geopolitical environment Is not a wise move. You will likely not successfully time the market. It’s also quite funny to call this unprecedented when the markets have literally gone through tech bubbles, the great depressions, global pandemics, and world wars lol.	301	Any-Illustrator-9808	1,739,130,598	Does it still make sense to keep “100% buy and hold” SP500 if you have enough wealth at a young age?	35 yo and have amassed $3.3 million in liquid investments (401k, IRA, 457b, hsa, and taxable account combined). Does it really make sense for my situation to blindly “buy and hold” for the next couple decades? It’s much easier to stomach volatility when you are still starting out…a -30% decline on 200K investments is a nothing burger of -60K loss…..however a -30% decline of $3.3M is a loss of $1M. Like at this point what is wrong with taking some chips off the table to try to time the market with this unprecedented geopolitical environment? I’m a physician and the funding cuts this government is possibly going to do healthcare means my high income may no longer be as reliably high in the near future, so I can’t be sure I could make up big losses with just “working it off”	631	achicomp	1,739,130,199	3m	investing	https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1iln8nk/does_it_still_make_sense_to_keep_100_buy_and_hold/
1iln8nk	mbwbhsv	What specialty are you that you have 3.3M liquid across all accounts by yourself by 35? Assuming the likely earliest timeline (finish undergrad at 22, finish med school 26, most of the higher paid specialties are 5-7s PGY training, then first job would put you starting at around at least about age 32-33….so do you also have a high income spouse or inherit some or what?	65	QuirkyMaintenance915	1,739,132,763	Does it still make sense to keep “100% buy and hold” SP500 if you have enough wealth at a young age?	35 yo and have amassed $3.3 million in liquid investments (401k, IRA, 457b, hsa, and taxable account combined). Does it really make sense for my situation to blindly “buy and hold” for the next couple decades? It’s much easier to stomach volatility when you are still starting out…a -30% decline on 200K investments is a nothing burger of -60K loss…..however a -30% decline of $3.3M is a loss of $1M. Like at this point what is wrong with taking some chips off the table to try to time the market with this unprecedented geopolitical environment? I’m a physician and the funding cuts this government is possibly going to do healthcare means my high income may no longer be as reliably high in the near future, so I can’t be sure I could make up big losses with just “working it off”	631	achicomp	1,739,130,199	3m	investing	https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1iln8nk/does_it_still_make_sense_to_keep_100_buy_and_hold/
1iln8nk	mbw392j	The higher your capital the less risky you want it to be. But you re young you could do some stock picking but at least 75% should be index investments	150	mneymaker	1,739,130,397	Does it still make sense to keep “100% buy and hold” SP500 if you have enough wealth at a young age?	35 yo and have amassed $3.3 million in liquid investments (401k, IRA, 457b, hsa, and taxable account combined). Does it really make sense for my situation to blindly “buy and hold” for the next couple decades? It’s much easier to stomach volatility when you are still starting out…a -30% decline on 200K investments is a nothing burger of -60K loss…..however a -30% decline of $3.3M is a loss of $1M. Like at this point what is wrong with taking some chips off the table to try to time the market with this unprecedented geopolitical environment? I’m a physician and the funding cuts this government is possibly going to do healthcare means my high income may no longer be as reliably high in the near future, so I can’t be sure I could make up big losses with just “working it off”	631	achicomp	1,739,130,199	3m	investing	https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1iln8nk/does_it_still_make_sense_to_keep_100_buy_and_hold/
1iln8nk	mbyonh4	Lawyer here (not your lawyer), here is what I tell physician clients who are similarly situated. First congrats on reaching 3.3M at 35, many docs don't get there until their forties. At 35, you can ride out a 30% decline. In the worst of Covid, a physician's brokerage account felll form $2M to 1.1M (peak to trough). That same account with zero new cash additions is well over $3M now. At 35 you can wait a decade and ride it out. During the worst recession, in the last 40 years, i.e. the 2008-2011 the doomsayers thought it would take a decade for markets to recover but it took 5 to 6 years. With a net worth of 3.5M you should be looking for investments that are not highly correlated with the stock market and you can invest in things with your net worth that folks with net worth under $1M can't buy (i.e. you qualify for accredited investor status). Can you buys shares in the ambulatory surgical center where you operate? There are Limited Partnerships that buy apartment complexes for cash with capital from the limited and general partners, renovate the units, put in amenities and management, rebrand the complex, and then improve the tenant base and raise rents... These pay 8% like clockwork while rent in collected then they sell the complexes and usually deliver 13% to 17% annualized returns. You can invest in venture capital funds (Pre-IPO). Or drop money into something like BCRED... Blackstone Private Credit Fund.. with consistent low 10% annual returns. So while it still makes sense to Buy and Hold, you should be positioning your new capital into places that are not highly correlated with the S&P 500.	31	Ok_Visual_2571	1,739,160,591	Does it still make sense to keep “100% buy and hold” SP500 if you have enough wealth at a young age?	35 yo and have amassed $3.3 million in liquid investments (401k, IRA, 457b, hsa, and taxable account combined). Does it really make sense for my situation to blindly “buy and hold” for the next couple decades? It’s much easier to stomach volatility when you are still starting out…a -30% decline on 200K investments is a nothing burger of -60K loss…..however a -30% decline of $3.3M is a loss of $1M. Like at this point what is wrong with taking some chips off the table to try to time the market with this unprecedented geopolitical environment? I’m a physician and the funding cuts this government is possibly going to do healthcare means my high income may no longer be as reliably high in the near future, so I can’t be sure I could make up big losses with just “working it off”	631	achicomp	1,739,130,199	3m	investing	https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1iln8nk/does_it_still_make_sense_to_keep_100_buy_and_hold/

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