Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

bank_of_thailand

sentences stringlengths 28 774	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
first, household leverage increased, driven particularly by auto-leasing and personal loans.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	705
risks to the outlook also increased from uncertainties surrounding the global economy.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	921
such factors included, for example, uncertainties regarding trade negotiations between the us and china that could be prolonged, geopolitical risks, the potential slowdown of global and thai economies, as well as the monetary policy outlook of advanced economies.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	158
the depreciation of the baht against the us dollar was rapid and continuous due to the strengthening of the us dollar but was still in line with regional currencies.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	654
the committee viewed that the continued accommodative monetary policy would help support overall economic growth, and thus voted to maintain the policy rate.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	822
these members nonetheless highlighted the need for policy to be flexible and attuned to the evolving growth and inflation outlook and associated assessments.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	43
fourth, the default rates of businesses and households could rise substantially after the phase-out of the credit relief measures.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	189
the economic impacts were, nonetheless, expected to be less severe than the first lockdown since economic activities in several sectors, especially those related to manufacturing, continued to operate.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	869
the chinese economy was projected to slow down due to its strict zero-covid policy and fragile real estate sector.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	987
advanced economies (aes) would continue to recover in line with the previous projection.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	467
the government should also proactively implement public health measures and procure sufficient covid-19 vaccines to limit adverse economic impacts of the new outbreaks.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	257
the mpc assessed that the surge in oil and commodity prices resulted in increased inflationary pressure but would not impede continued growth of the global and thai economies going forward.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	658
the committee viewed that the economy would experience increased uncertainties from domestic and external factors that could affect economic growth in the period ahead.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	754
as it became apparent that the rate lift-off would not occur in the october meeting, volatility in the global financial markets subsided.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	632
the mpc would remain vigilant in monitoring developments in the global economy as well as progress on domestic restoration efforts and stands ready to take appropriate policy actions.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	426
in addition, financial institutions should assess the efficacy of financial and credit measures.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	288
the thai economy in 2020 would expand at a much lower rate than the previous forecast and much further below its potential due to the coronavirus outbreak, the delayed enactment of the annual budget expenditure act, and the drought, all of which would affect a large number of related businesses and employment.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	70
meanwhile, the repercussions of the euro zone’s problem on asia became more evident through trade-related channels, while its impact on the financial sector remained contained.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,012	167
the committee thus voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.00 percent per annum.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	102
moreover, the european union delisted thailand from the illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing (iuu) yellow-card status, which would support an increase in fishery exports.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	250
ae central banks appeared set to be on a hiking cycle to curb rising inflation as their economies had returned to or exceeded the pre-pandemic levels.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	832
global inflationary pressure remained low, and most central banks have consequently kept policy interest rates unchanged since the last meeting.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	916
moreover, clarity and continuity of government policies should lend further support to private consumption and investment.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	763
manufacturing production and exports were affected by supply chain disruptions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	84
the committee projected the thai economy to expand at a rate close to the previous assessment but with greater downside risks from increased uncertainties in the global economy.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	295
the latest downward revision of growth projection is due to weaker-than-expected gdp outturn in the first quarter and the recent softening of economic indicators.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	125
us dollar liquidity tightened in some instances but did not cause significant movements in global financial markets.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	845
merchandise exports were expected to contract more than the previous assessment due to the slowdown of trading partner economies and global trade volume owing to intensifying and expanding trade tensions as well as a longer-than-expected down cycle of electronic products.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	191
commercial banks had robust capital fund and loan loss provision levels, capable of absorbing of relief measures to assist retail borrowers affected by covid-19 and expedited commercial banks’ proactive debt restructuring for households and businesses, to the extent that the results are substantial, and credit extension under various measures previously announced.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	617
the benefits for thai exports from global demand recovery would partly depend on the sector’s competitiveness) and longer-run potential growth rate which may decline, but cannot be quantitatively assessed with precision at present, also depending on private sector adjustments and structural reform policies, (2) greater challenges in assessing economic conditions owing to a wider gap between expenditure-side and production-side national incomes, resulting in an unusual influence of changes in stock and statistical discrepancy on gdp.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	64
meanwhile, both equity and bond inflows into the region accelerated on the back of improving global economic outlook.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	709
headline inflation was softer than expected in may and june 2017 due mainly to supply-side factors.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	247
meanwhile, downside risks receded on account of the accelerated vaccination progress.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	434
on the other hand, two committee members viewed that such a policy rate cut given the already accommodative monetary policy stance might not lend additional support to economic growth, compared with potentially increased financial stability risks.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	362
consequently, china lowered its growth target for 2015.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	215
gold 107.1 pii 100 99.9 pci import value excl.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,021	879
looking ahead, headline inflation was expected to gradually trend up toward target on account of domestic demand recovery and higher oil prices than in the previous year.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	985
meanwhile, loans extended by specialized financial institutions (sfis) and non-banks were projected to rise.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	652
- development and widespread distribution of the vaccines were vital for the thai economic recovery next year.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	316
the search-for-yield behavior in the prolonged low interest rate remained present as reflected in (1) the continued expansion in foreign investment funds (fifs), although risks were limited as most funds invested in countries with investment grade credit rating, and (2) the increase in the asset size of saving cooperatives following expansion in deposits.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	489
the economy would continue to expand in 2022 and 2023 on the back of improving domestic demand and tourism.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	89
uncertain demand particularly from china would directly weigh on thailand and the region given the tight trade linkages – china and asean accounted for almost 40 percent of thai goods exports.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	977
such risks included (1) the search-for-yield behavior that could lead to underpricing of risks, (2) a continued increase in assets and deposits of saving cooperatives despite slowing down somewhat compared with the previous period due to more stringent regulations, (3) debt serviceability of households and smes, and (4) the property market where businesses continued to increase their investment and financial institutions engaged in competition by extending mortgage loans with higher credit risks.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	199
in this regard, close coordination between regulatory bodies would be critical in closing such gaps as well as in monitoring and addressing risks in an appropriate and timely manner.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	277
for the real estate sector, the house price index continued to rise, although it did not pick up significantly.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	878
public expenditure would likely grow at a slower pace than previously assessed due to (1) the expected delay in the enactment of the annual expenditure budget act, b.e.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	789
overall monetary policy of trading partners in both advanced and regional economies would be more accommodative to shore up the weakening economic outlook.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	408
private investment would recover in line with domestic and external demand albeit at a lower rate than expected due to uncertainties surrounding the impact of mutations of the virus, which would affect investment decisions.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	865
this would address the debt overhang problem in a targeted and practical manner, lowering risk to economic growth in the medium term.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	148
other members emphasized exchange rate expectation as the key driver of capital outflows from emerging markets in recent months, as economic fundamentals usually changed too slowly to justify large swings in market sentiments.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	894
thai government yield curve steepened with the market expectations of imminent qe tapering.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	37
going forward, some sectors would experience a rapid recovery, especially tourism-related businesses such as hotels, restaurants, and commerce.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	776
this was partly due to high vaccination rates which allowed for more relaxation of containment measures.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	380
although china’s slowdown might delay the recovery, the effect was expected to be marginal, especially for the us economy which was supported by improvements in the labor market and consumer confidence.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	851
coupled with lingering concerns over subdued inflation, the impacts might prompt additional monetary easing by the european central bank and the bank of japan in order to buttress the recovery of their respective economies.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	697
in this case, herd immunity would be delayed to the end of 2022 and the thai economy would return to the pre-covid level at the beginning of 2023.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	814
however, if economic growth were to accelerate going forward, inflationary pressures might ratchet up and central banks in g3 economies might have to raise their policy rates earlier than previously expected.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	904
meanwhile, sectors with high recovery potential would need to adjust their business models in preparation for the post-covid environment.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	252
growth resumed for the euro area in the second quarter, the first expansion since the third quarter of 2011.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	929
however, there remained a need to monitor risks arising from higher production and living costs which could affect the thai economic recovery.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	611
the global economy continued to soften and downside risks increased since the last mpc meeting due to the lack of clear resolution of the euro area’s debt crisis.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	500
however, thailand’s strong external positions at present could help support investors’ confidence.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	163
public expenditure would expand more than assessed.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,020	280
instead, it would reduce financial stability risks, and that would be conducive to sustainable economic growth in the long term.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	942
however, given low demand-pull inflation pressures, signs of acceleration in prices of goods had yet to be seen.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	596
the committee noted that rising public debt in the medium term would not pose a significant risk to fiscal sustainability.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	604
inflation expectations remained stable.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	217
the impact of high oil prices would therefore not have a significant impact on continued economic expansion.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	395
improving global economic outlook, slowing inflation, and contained banking stresses in the us and europe helped alleviate investors’ concerns.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	997
delta variant with more severe symptoms.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,021	475
there were also additional measures including facilitating debt settlement of unsecured personal loans under specified conditions (“debt clinic”), enhancing financial literacy and discipline of the public, as well as supporting relevant supervisory authorities to push forward the implementation of an upgraded supervisory standard for saving cooperatives in accordance with the cooperatives act (no.3) b.e.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	203
next year’s global economic expansion was projected to be slightly higher than this year, and the probability of tail events had diminished thanks to additional policy measures undertaken by the g3 economies.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,012	850
fiscal stimulus, especially the implementation of planned public investment, should be a key growth driver at this juncture.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	963
the committee viewed that pursuing policies which would strengthen supervision of saving cooperatives was highly critical.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,017	982
furthermore, the committee saw the need of supply-side policies to restructure the thai economy in the post-covid environment that could change business structures in many industries.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	445
headline inflation was expected to gradually rise and return to the target band in the first quarter of 2017, although the timing would depend largely on future developments in oil and fresh food prices.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	507
in addition, whenever appropriate, as at this meeting, a policy rate increase would help build policy space.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	645
inflation should, however, rebound in the second half of this year with upside risks from higher food prices amid a more severe el niño episode.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	196
the majority of market participants surveyed expected the current mpc meeting to result in a rise in the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points while some expected an overall rise of 0.50-1.00 percentage points in 2011.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	708
these would result in higher costs of goods and living expenses, a dampened domestic purchasing power, as well as a slowdown in external demand.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	785
developments in the eurozone economy weighed heavily on investor confidence, prompting a flight to safety, which pushed yields on us, japanese, and german government bonds to historical lows.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	423
the committee came to an agreement on the following considerations.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,022	683
core inflation increased slightly mainly due to supply-side pressures—in particular, a gradual rise in fresh food and liquefied petroleum gas (lpg) prices.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	415
3) headline inflation would be largely unchanged compared with the previous assessment.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	895
this was due to low foreign participation in the long-term thai government bond market compared with other regional countries, as well as the continuous underweighting of foreign investment in thai equities over recent periods.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	693
although the recovery process in the manufacturing sector has already begun, the restoration of production to normal capacity is expected to be more prolonged than previously assessed.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	993
in any case, the committee assessed that trade protectionist measures between the us and china were a significant risk and remained highly uncertain, and deemed it necessary to closely monitor developments with a more comprehensive analysis of the impacts.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	781
meanwhile, core inflation was projected to edge up in tandem with the economic outlook.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,018	400
the inflation outlook would still subject to upside risks.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	132
the euro area economies continued to recover, on the back of the domestic demand and exports.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	55
despite a limited impact on the overall economy, the consequence on the wellbeing of citizens in the affected areas were quite significant.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	981
on balance, financial conditions remained supportive of fund mobilization by the private sector and ongoing recovery, as bank lending and corporate bond issuances continued expanding.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	847
however, two committee members assessed that a rate hike in this meeting would complement the use of macroprudential measures in order to reduce financial stability risks.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	193
in addition, a pre-condition for macroprudential tools to be effective, is that the policy interest rate is first set at an appropriate level for maintaining macroeconomic stability; various studies found that interest rate differential was a less important determinant of capital inflows when compared to other factors such as investors’ assessment of the economic outlook and expectations of future currency movements and; the relatively low interest rate environment, investors can be induced to search for higher returns as well as speculate in riskier assets, especially in real estate and equity markets.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	696
examples of such measures could include provision of soft loans for businesses and households with the potential to repay their loans as well as credit guarantees so that loans could be allocated to smes more efficiently.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,020	431
looking ahead, exports of goods should gradually improve in line with a moderate recovery in major economies.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	620
demand-pull factors include: 1) a diminishing output gap as output growth neared potential while producers have revised their inflation expectations upwards for some time.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	660
sentiments in the global financial markets improved in the short term due to the prospects of an agreement between the us and china over the phase one trade deal, greater clarity on brexit, as well as stabilizing economic data in advanced economies.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	388
first, prolonged outbreak and virus mutations from existing and new variants would reduce vaccine efficacy.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	177
meanwhile, demand-pull inflationary pressures remained low and would be subject to structural changes.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/bank_of_thailand

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Bank of Thailand.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The bank_of_thailand dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}