Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

federal_reserve_system

sentences stringlengths 30 924	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the u.s. international trade deficit narrowed sharply in february, as imports fell more than exports.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	705
in these circumstances, the members recognized the need to monitor with special care price movements in the stock market and asset markets more generally for their implications for consumer and other spending.	neutral	forward looking	certain	1,996	921
staff economic outlook in the economic projection prepared by the staff for the january fomc meeting, real gdp growth in the fourth quarter of last year was estimated to have been markedly slower than in the forecast for the december meeting.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	158
the statement also reiterated the committee's intention to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings as announced in june.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	654
growth of m2 and m3 picked up somewhat in the first quarter from already robust rates in the fourth quarter.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	822
automakers' production schedules indicated that the pace of light motor vehicle assemblies would increase in the second quarter, and broader indicators of manufacturing production, such as the readings on new orders from national manufacturing surveys, were consistent with an expectation of moderate expansion in factory output in the coming months.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	43
it was noted that a reasonable argument could be made either for an increase at this meeting or for waiting for some additional information on the labor market and inflation.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	189
several other participants pointed out that the largest contributors to the recent elevated measures of inflation were a handful of covid-related, pandemic-sensitive categories in which specific, identifiable bottlenecks were at play.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	869
the positive vaccine news also supported risk sentiment abroad, leading many global equity price indexes to advance and the u.s. dollar to depreciate further.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	987
the possible downshift in the pace of high-tech spending also raised the possibility of an erosion of profit margins that could result from a slackening in the pace of technology-led productivity growth and the associated increase in cost pressures.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,004	467
as previously announced, over the next few quarters the federal reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,008	257
a vast majority of participants revised up their projections for real gdp growth this year compared with the projections they had submitted in march, citing stronger consumer demand and improvements in vaccination rates as the primary reasons for these upgrades.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	658
in addition, there was not complete consensus within the committee that headwinds were the only explanation for the low expected future path of policy rates.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,013	754
an apparent consequence of reduced income growth and of lower equity prices was a change in the mix of single-family homebuilding, with less emphasis on construction of high-priced homes.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	632
nonetheless, they saw some pickup in inflation as a distinct possibility under anticipated economic conditions and concluded that the directive should indicate that prospective developments were more likely to warrant an increase than a decrease in the funds rate objective in the near term.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	1,999	426
it was noted that a slowdown in the rate of increase in home prices going forward might lead households to increase their desired saving.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,004	288
compared with the december forecast, the conditioning assumptions underlying the forecast were little changed and roughly offsetting: although higher equity prices and a lower foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to be slightly more supportive of economic growth, the staff anticipated that these influences would be about offset by lower house prices and higher oil prices.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	70
meeting participants generally agreed that the recovery in the housing sector had continued.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	167
energy prices were high enough to encourage continued investment in alternative fuels.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	102
most participants were of the view that there was not yet enough evidence to indicate whether the balance of risks to the medium-term outlook had changed materially, but others judged that recent developments had increased the level of downside risks or that the risks were no longer balanced.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	250
in the meantime, nonresidential construction and energy-related investments were a source of some support to investment spending, but they provided only a very partial offset to widespread weakness in other business spending.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,001	832
incoming data for foreign industrial economies were generally favorable and pointed to continued expansion.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,006	916
the information reviewed at this meeting suggested that the expansion in economic activity had slowed considerably after a very rapid advance in the first quarter.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,998	763
participants also considered open market operations to purchase treasury securities and agency mbs to support the smooth functioning of these securities markets, which in turn would help support the supply of credit to households and businesses.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	84
the very limited available information on economic activity abroad in the third quarter suggested continued sluggish expansion in the euro area and japan, moderate growth in the united kingdom, further brisk recovery in canada, and ongoing recovery in emerging asia.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,002	295
near-term indicators of business spending on equipment and software were generally positive.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	125
on this issue, participants judged there to be a great deal of uncertainty and expressed concerns about the possibility that an early reopening would contribute to a significant increase of infections.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	845
further gains in productivity and the prospect for relatively contained demand pressures on resources, which were likely to be somewhat more limited for a time than members had anticipated earlier, would contribute to keeping price inflation subdued.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,002	191
however, with monetary policy assumed to remain highly accommodative, the staff continued to anticipate that real gdp growth would outpace growth in potential output over most of this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	617
the lagged effects of the earlier rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place continuing, though diminishing, restraint on the demand for u.s. exports for some period ahead.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	1,999	64
moreover, they were concerned that, despite the improvement in labor market conditions, the new language might be misinterpreted as indicating increased concern about underutilization of labor resources.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	709
new usage across many funding operations and facilities had declined over the intermeeting period as conditions in funding markets improved.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	247
however, larger or prolonged disruptions in commodities markets could interfere with other markets and real activity more broadly.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	434
however, high levels of resource utilization and the high prices for energy and other commodities had the potential to sustain inflation pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,006	362
in treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities (mbs) markets, many market functioning indicators had returned to levels prevailing before the pandemic, and, as a result, purchases were conducted at the minimum pace directed by the committee.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	215
housing activity was well sustained in april, with the run-up in mortgage rates that began in february having had little perceptible effect to date.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,996	879
against this backdrop, and in consideration of the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, almost all participants agreed that it was appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	985
leveraged loan issuance was also strong in july and august.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	652
spending on office buildings and manufacturing structures continued to be depressed by high vacancy rates, while outlays for commercial buildings moved up in conjunction with declines in vacancy rates for such structures.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,004	316
however, closed-end residential mortgage loans on banks' books increased modestly for the second month in a row.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	489
producer prices of finished goods also were affected by the volatility of energy prices in april and may, but core producer prices recorded only a small rise in each month.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,999	89
nevertheless, some participants observed that portions of the labor market, such as the health-care sector and in less urban areas, remained very tight.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	977
a reduction in the attractiveness of home equity borrowing was mentioned as possibly contributing to the slowdown.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,006	199
allow aggregate capacity of the on rrp facility to be temporarily elevated to support policy implementation; adjust the ioer rate and the parameters of the on rrp facility, and use other tools such as term operations, as necessary for appropriate monetary control, based on policymakers' assessments of the efficacy and costs of their tools.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,015	277
the civilian unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent in august despite advances in claims for unemployment insurance.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,002	878
at the same time, the persistence of very strong competitive pressures, including those arising from foreign competitors, was preventing most business firms from passing on higher costs by raising prices, and this lack of pricing power did not appear to be diminishing.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,003	789
a number of businesses continued to report that they were holding back on hiring and capital spending because of uncertainty about future taxes, health-care costs, and regulations.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	408
the improvement was reflected not only in a pickup in payroll employment gains and a noticeable decline in the overall unemployment rate, but also in reductions in broader measures of underutilization such as long- duration joblessness and the number of workers with part-time jobs who would prefer full-time employment.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	865
to some extent, the recent strengthening may have reflected precautionary stockbuilding as insurance against potential supply disruptions relating to the century date change.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	148
initial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the intermeeting period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	894
measures of inflation compensation based on treasury inflation-protected securities increased somewhat but remained at low levels.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	37
although labor markets already were tight, inflation had remained relatively subdued, and there were no signs in price data that it was picking up.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	1,997	776
the number of participants and the total amount awarded increased over the course of the first five operations.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,014	380
members concurred that the statement should note that the expansion remained solid despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,005	851
the vote encompassed approval of the statement below to be released at 2:00 p.m.: information received since the federal open market committee met in january suggests a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	697
the staff forecast for overall and core personal consumption expenditures (pce) inflation over the next two years was revised down slightly.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	814
the amendments also removed the central banks of austria, belgium, denmark, england, france, germany, italy, japan, netherlands, norway, sweden, and switzerland, and the bank for international settlements from the list of institutions with which the federal reserve bank of new york was authorized to maintain reciprocal currency arrangements (swap facilities).	neutral	not forward looking	certain	1,999	904
total pce prices increased 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in january, while core pce price inflation—which excludes changes in energy prices and many consumer food prices—was 2.9 percent over the same period.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	252
corporate bond issuance by nonfinancial firms remained fairly robust in february; commercial and industrial (c&i) loans and nonfinancial cp also continued to expand.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	929
members also agreed that the statement should convey that the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and that it does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	611
at its meeting on may 18, 1999, the committee adopted a directive that called for maintaining conditions in reserve markets that would be consistent with an unchanged federal funds rate of about 4-3/4 percent, but the directive also contained a bias toward a possible tightening of policy.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	1,999	500
the chair noted that he had asked the subcommittee on communications to consider ways to improve the information contained in the sep and to improve communications regarding the role of the federal funds rate projections in the sep as part of the policy process.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	163
in the committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members commented that recent statistical and anecdotal information provided clear indications of significant slowing in the expansion of business activity and also pointed to appreciable erosion in business and consumer confidence.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,000	280
at earlier stages of production, producer prices of core intermediate materials moved down, on net, during july and august while most indexes of spot commodity prices increased.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	942
however, they judged that purchases of longer-term treasury securities would only modestly improve conditions in private credit markets at present, and that completing already-announced plans to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities and to support certain asset-backed securities markets was, in current circumstances, likely to be a more effective way to employ the federal reserve balance sheet to support credit flows to, and spending by, households and businesses.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,009	596
against this background, all the members supported a proposal to maintain an unchanged policy stance and to adopt and announce an asymmetric directive that was tilted toward tightening.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	1,999	604
participants judged that the potential for more-widespread disruptions in oil production, and thus for a larger jump in energy prices, posed both downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	217
the manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,024	395
that said, contacts recognized that some potentially sizeable downside risks remained.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	997
weekly estimates of private-sector payrolls constructed by federal reserve board staff using data provided by the payroll processor adp that were available through the first part of july suggested that the pace of private employment gains had remained strong.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	475
participants discussed the still-elevated rate of housing services inflation and commented on the uncertainty regarding when and by how much lower readings for rent growth on new leases would pass through to this category of inflation.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	203
rates also moved up on a broad array of fixed-income securities, including investment- and speculative-grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, both agency and non-agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (cmbs), and agency residential mortgage-backed securities.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	850
most measures of the increase in nominal wages from a year earlier continued to trend down, including the 12-month change in average hourly earnings for all employees, which was 4.1 percent in may, 0.2 percentage point lower than at the end of last year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	963
business fixed investment increased at an unusually rapid rate in the third quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,997	982
however, in some theoretical frameworks, the connection between resource slack and inflation depends on the nature of the shock and its impact on marginal costs and markups.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,009	445
yields on longer-dated treasury securities rose late in the period following comments by federal reserve officials.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	507
investors took particular note of the statement's indication that inflation was below the levels consistent with the fomc's dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	645
in their discussion of language for the postmeeting statement, members generally agreed that they should acknowledge the broad improvement in labor market conditions over the intermeeting period as well as their judgment that labor market slack continued to diminish.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,014	196
in november, the euro-area and u.k. purchasing managers indexes for services were well below their level over the first half of the year; nevertheless they pointed to moderate expansion.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	708
the staff forecast prepared for this meeting continued to suggest that the expansion would gradually moderate from its currently elevated pace to a rate around, or perhaps a little below, the growth of the economy's estimated potential.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,000	785
auto loans increased, consistent with significant declines in auto loan interest rates this year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	423
it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday, may 4, 2004.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,004	683
vote against this action: mr. mcteer.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	1,999	415
reflecting investor concerns about the conditions of financial institutions, spreads on credit default swaps for u.s. banks widened sharply, and those for insurance companies remained elevated.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,008	895
the contraction was reflected in widespread declines in payroll employment and industrial production.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	693
however, more recently, expectations of future credit quality for businesses deteriorated slightly, and delinquency rates rose for some types of credit owed by households with low credit scores.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	993
although financial market conditions had improved, credit was still quite tight in many sectors.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,009	781
late in the period, investor focus appeared to turn to the u.s. debt ceiling and the potential for delayed debt service payments by the treasury department, the possibility of a downgrade of u.s. sovereign debt, and the prospects for significant long-term fiscal consolidation.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	400
at the conclusion of the discussion, the committee voted to authorize and direct the federal reserve bank of new york, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the soma in accordance with the following domestic policy directive, for release at 2:00 p.m.: effective february 2, 2023, the federal open market committee directs the desk to: undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	132
september sales totals were boosted by strong spending at automotive dealers, food stores, and nondurable goods outlets.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,996	55
recent readings on survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations--including those from the michigan survey, the survey of professional forecasters, and the desk's survey of primary dealers and survey of market participants--were little changed on balance.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	981
the prices of a number of intermediate goods, including a wide range of petrochemical products and building materials, were subject to upward pressure, reflecting high crude oil prices, production disruptions in the energy sector, and elevated demands for materials in anticipation of rebuilding in the gulf coast region.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,005	847
first, while the overall outlook remained favorable, there had been signs of deceleration in economic activity in recent quarters, particularly in business fixed investment and manufacturing.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	193
for the year through april, both aggregates expanded at rates appreciably above the upper bounds of their respective ranges for the year.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	1,997	696
surveys indicated that households’ expectations of inflation over the next year were little changed in february while households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged lower.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,007	431
several european banks announced large declines in third-quarter profits, in part reflecting write-downs of their holdings of greek sovereign debt.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	620
the near-term forecast for core pce price inflation was essentially unrevised.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	660
the risks to the forecast for real gdp were seen as tilted to the downside, primarily reflecting the staff's assessment that monetary policy appeared to be better positioned to respond to large positive shocks to the economic outlook than to substantial adverse ones.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	388
recent cutbacks in new residential construction reduced the level of new home inventories, and the relative stability in sales of new homes allowed those inventory reductions to begin to bring down the months' supply of new homes for sale.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	177
real personal consumption expenditures had shown essentially no growth in september and october, suggesting that tighter credit conditions, higher gasoline prices, and the continuing housing correction might be restraining growth in real consumer spending.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,007	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/federal_reserve_system

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve System.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The federal_reserve_system dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}