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Bayesian Analysis for Inference of an Emerging Epidemic: Citrus Canker in Urban Landscapes Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic. This poses a challenge to epidemiologists: how quickly can the parameters of an emerging disease be estimated? How soon can the future progress of the epidemic be reliably predicted? We investigate these issues using a unique, spatially and temporally resolved dataset for the invasion of a plant disease, Asiatic citrus canker in urban Miami. We use epidemiological models, Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo, and advanced spatial statistical methods to analyse rates and extent of spread of the disease. A rich and complex epidemic behaviour is revealed. The spatial scale of spread is approximately constant over time and can be estimated rapidly with great precision (although the evidence for long-range transmission is inconclusive). In contrast, the rate of infection is characterised by strong monthly fluctuations that we associate with extreme weather events. Uninformed predictions from the early stages of the epidemic, assuming complete ignorance of the future environmental drivers, fail because of the unpredictable variability of the infection rate. Conversely, predictions improve dramatically if we assume prior knowledge of either the main environmental trend, or the main environmental events. A contrast emerges between the high detail attained by modelling in the spatiotemporal description of the epidemic and the bottleneck imposed on epidemic prediction by the limits of meteorological predictability. We argue that identifying such bottlenecks will be a fundamental step in future modelling of weather-driven epidemics.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Public enemy number one The new coronavirus is no small threat, but we are starting to understand how it works, reports Michael Marshall

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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An outbreak of COVID‐19 caused by a new coronavirus: what we know so far

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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SKP2 attenuates autophagy through Beclin1-ubiquitination and its inhibition reduces MERS-Coronavirus infection Autophagy is an essential cellular process affecting virus infections and other diseases and Beclin1 (BECN1) is one of its key regulators. Here, we identified S-phase kinase-associated protein 2 (SKP2) as E3 ligase that executes lysine-48-linked poly-ubiquitination of BECN1, thus promoting its proteasomal degradation. SKP2 activity is regulated by phosphorylation in a hetero-complex involving FKBP51, PHLPP, AKT1, and BECN1. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of SKP2 decreases BECN1 ubiquitination, decreases BECN1 degradation and enhances autophagic flux. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) multiplication results in reduced BECN1 levels and blocks the fusion of autophagosomes and lysosomes. Inhibitors of SKP2 not only enhance autophagy but also reduce the replication of MERS-CoV up to 28,000-fold. The SKP2-BECN1 link constitutes a promising target for host-directed antiviral drugs and possibly other autophagy-sensitive conditions.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Virome genomics: a tool for defining the human virome High throughput, deep sequencing assays are powerful tools for gaining insights into virus–host interactions. Sequencing assays can discover novel viruses and describe the genomes of novel and known viruses. Genomic information can predict viral proteins that can be characterized, describe important genes in the host that control infections, and evaluate gene expression of viruses and hosts during infection. Sequencing can also describe variation and evolution of viruses during replication and transmission. This review recounts some of the major advances in the studies of virus–host interactions from the last two years, and discusses the uses of sequencing technologies relating to these studies.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Understanding the emerging coronavirus: what it means for health security and infection prevention

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Protecting the psychological health of children through effective communication about COVID-19

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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An evolutionary change in diagnostic virology. The earliest laboratory diagnoses of viral infections were made by microscopy just after the turn of the twentieth century. Animal and egg inoculation were the methods of choice until tissue culture and serology accelerated the field of diagnostic virology during the fifties and sixties. More rapid methods, including electron microscopy, immunoassays, and nucleic acid probes, are now available and influencing laboratory decisions and patient care. This review discusses changes in science and society which have influenced diagnostic virology and how the discipline has responded to these influences.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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How the SARS coronavirus causes disease: host or organism? The previous epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has ended. However, many questions concerning how the aetiological agent, the novel SARS coronavirus (CoV), causes illness in humans remain unanswered. The pathology of fatal cases of SARS is dominated by diffuse alveolar damage. Specific histological changes are not detected in other organs. These contrast remarkably with the clinical picture, in which there are apparent manifestations in multiple organs. Both pathogen and host factors are important in the pathogenesis of SARS. The choice of specific receptors and the unique genome of the SARS‐CoV are important elements in understanding the biology of the pathogen. For the host cells, the outcome of SARS‐CoV infection, whether there are cytopathic effects or not, depends on the cell types that are infected. At the whole‐body level, immune‐mediated damage, due to activation of cytokines and/or chemokines and, perhaps, autoimmunity, may play key roles in the clinical and pathological features of SARS. Continued research is still required to determine the pathogenetic mechanisms involved and to combat this new emerging human infectious disease. Copyright © 2006 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Climate change and infectious disease: time for a new normal?

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Integrated urban services: Experience from four cities on different continents Abstract Rapid urbanization combined with climate change necessitates new types of urban services that make best use of science and technology. The Integrated Urban Hydro-Meteorological, Climate and Environmental Services and systems are a new initiative from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that seeks to provide science-based integrated urban services supporting safe, healthy and resilient cities. Various cities have already started development and implementation of such Integrated Urban Services and successfully test and use them following specific requirements of local stakeholders. This paper demonstrates the novel concept and approach of Integrated Urban Hydro-Meteorological, Climate and Environmental Services (IUS) from a set of four case study cities: Hong Kong, Toronto, Mexico City and Paris, that use different IUS configurations with good existing practice. These cities represent a range of countries, climates and geophysical settings. The aggregate main joint similarities of the IUS in these cities and synergy of the cities' experience, achievements and research findings are presented, as well as identification of existing gaps in knowledge and further research needs. A list of potential criteria for identifying and classifying IUS demonstration cities is proposed. It will aid future, more detailed analysis of the IUS experience, and selection of additional demonstration cities.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Contributions of the viral genetic background and a single amino acid substitution in an immunodominant CD8+ T-cell epitope to murine coronavirus neurovirulence. The immunodominant CD8+ T-cell epitope of a highly neurovirulent strain of mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), JHM, is thought to be essential for protection against virus persistence within the central nervous system. To test whether abrogation of this H-2Db-restricted epitope, located within the spike glycoprotein at residues S510 to 518 (S510), resulted in delayed virus clearance and/or virus persistence we selected isogenic recombinants which express either the wild-type JHM spike protein (RJHM) or spike containing the N514S mutation (RJHM(N514S)), which abrogates the response to S510. In contrast to observations in suckling mice in which viruses encoding inactivating mutations within the S510 epitope (epitope escape mutants) were associated with persistent virus and increased neurovirulence (Pewe et al., J Virol. 72:5912-5918, 1998), RJHM(N514S) was not more virulent than the parental, RJHM, in 4-week-old C57BL/6 (H-2b) mice after intracranial injection. Recombinant viruses expressing the JHM spike, wild type or encoding the N514S substitution, were also selected in which background genes were derived from the neuroattenuated A59 strain of MHV. Whereas recombinants expressing the wild-type JHM spike (SJHM/RA59) were highly neurovirulent, A59 recombinants containing the N514S mutation (SJHM(N514S)/RA59) were attenuated, replicated less efficiently, and exhibited reduced virus spread in the brain at 5 days postinfection (peak of infectious virus titers in the central nervous system) compared to parental virus encoding wild-type spike. Virulence assays in BALB/c mice (H-2d), which do not recognize the S510 epitope, revealed that attenuation of the epitope escape mutants was not due to the loss of a pathogenic immune response directed against the S510 epitope. Thus, an intact immunodominant S510 epitope is not essential for virus clearance from the CNS, the S510 inactivating mutation results in decreased virulence in weanling mice but not in suckling mice, suggesting that specific host conditions are required for epitope escape mutants to display increased virulence, and the N514S mutation causes increased attenuation in the context of A59 background genes, demonstrating that genes other than that for the spike are also important in determining neurovirulence.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Insights from the Association of SARS-CoV S-Protein with its Receptor, ACE2

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Scientific Opinion on the welfare of cattle kept for beef production and the welfare in intensive calf farming systems Information given in previous Opinions “Welfare of cattle kept for beef production” (SCAHAW, 2001) and “The risks of poor welfare in intensive calf farming systems” (EFSA, 2006) is updated and recent scientific evidence on the topics reviewed. Risks of poor welfare are identified using a structured analysis, and issues not identified in the SCAHAW (2001) beef Opinion, especially effects of housing and management on enteric and respiratory diseases are reviewed. The Opinion covers all systems of beef production, although the welfare of suckler cows or breeding bulls is not considered. The Chapter on beef cattle presents new evidence and recommendations in relation to heat and cold stress, mutilations and pain management, digestive disorders linked to high concentrate feeds and respiratory disorders linked to overstocking, inadequate ventilation, mixing of animals and failure of early diagnosis and treatment. Major welfare problems in cattle kept for beef production, as identified by risk assessment, were respiratory diseases linked to overstocking, inadequate ventilation, mixing of animals and failure of early diagnosis and treatment, digestive disorders linked to intensive concentrate feeding, lack of physically effective fibre in the diet, and behavioural disorders linked to inadequate floor space, and co‐mingling in the feedlot. Major hazards for white veal calves were considered to be iron‐deficiency anaemia, a direct consequence of dietary iron restriction, enteric diseases linked to high intakes of liquid feed and inadequate intake of physically effective fibre, discomfort and behavioural disorders linked to inadequate floors and floor space.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Managing business relationships during a pandemic: Conducting a relationship audit and developing a path forward Abstract During stable times, firms will generally aim to create reliable B2B relationships that provide increased efficiency and profitability. However, tumultuous times, such as the time during a major pandemic, cause many significant disruptions in both internal and external environmental domains. Thus, we argue that it is critical during this time to reevaluate the company's business relationships as a whole. While long-term partnerships are great for handling incremental changes during stable times, disruptive environmental changes may require managers to consider disruptive changes to their businesses. A pandemic may also present opportunities for establishing new relationships as there may be other partners/suppliers who are better equipped to help the company address urgent short-term needs and to capitalize on significant long-term opportunities. In this paper, we design a new relationship audit template to help B2B firms weather the immediate crisis at hand and position themselves more strategically for the future. We explore this idea in relation to the coronavirus outbreak, introduce the idea of a B2B crisis relationship audit, and offer potential steps forward for firms.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Genetic diversity and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Abstract COVID-19 is a viral respiratory illness caused by a new coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. The World Health Organization declared the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak a global public health emergency. We performed genetic analyses of eighty-six complete or near-complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2 and revealed many mutations and deletions on coding and non-coding regions. These observations provided evidence of the genetic diversity and rapid evolution of this novel coronavirus.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Émergences et barrières d’espèces Résumé Les infections virales émergentes sont définies ici comme celles dont l’incidence a augmenté les 20 dernières années. Ces infections concernent l’homme, mais aussi les viroses animales, touchant les animaux domestiques ou sauvages. Pour l’homme, les émergences virales sont d’origine zoonotique, et sont souvent le fait d’un franchissement de barrière d’espèces. Ce passage interespèces est favorisé par de nombreuses circonstances : variations environnementales, climatiques, bioterrorisme, potentiel évolutif du virus... La recherche du réservoir animal est capitale pour la prévention des réémergences, et pour l’éradication potentielle de la maladie. La réussite émergentielle de certains virus a eu des conséquences graves en santé publique humaine : pandémies grippales, pandémie de sida, fièvres hémorragiques, et plus récemment syndrome de détresse respiratoire aigu (SRAS). Abstract Emergent viral infections are defined as those the incidence of which has increased over the last 20 years. These infections concern human but also animal viruses affecting wild or tame animals. In human, emergent viruses are of zoonotic origin and often due to crossing of species barrier. This inter-species crossing is promoted by various circumstances: environmental and climatic variations, bioterrorism, evolutive potential of the virus, etc. Screening for the animal reservoir is extremely important to prevent re-emergence and to eradicate the disease. The emergential success of some viruses has had serious consequences on human public health: flu pandemics, AIDS pandemic, hemorrhagic fever, and more recently SARS.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Emergency Preparedness—Planning and Management In general, emergencies can be divided into internal and external situations. Regardless of the nature of the emergency, the organizational response will be quite different when the emergency condition exists within the facility from when it occurs at some distant location. The actual emergency response programs of healthcare facilities indicate that much more effort has gone into a prepared response to external emergencies than to internal emergencies. Exceptions can be found in the areas of fire safety and bomb threat programs, in which various regulatory and accrediting agencies have considerable involvement. The planning and management of emergency incidents and conditions that healthcare organizations face daily come in many sizes, shapes, and colors. While some of these situations are intentionally created by man, others result from unintentional accidents, and still others are weather related. Each and every day, facilities react to a variety of emergency conditions.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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How the SARS vaccine effort can learn from HIV—speeding towards the future, learning from the past A remarkable collaborative effort coordinated by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) team at WHO resulted in discovery of the etiologic agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome less than 2 months after the announcement of global alert. The development of a vaccine to prevent SARS should be pursued with the same urgency and cooperative spirit, as SARS is highly lethal and, if not controlled during the first few generations of transmission, is likely to become endemic in regions of the world where health-care infrastructure is underdeveloped and epidemiological control measures are weak. The scientific community already learned many important lessons from HIV vaccine development; these should be heeded. For example, consideration should be given to the development of a vaccine that will protect across regional strains of SARS, as the newly emergent coronavirus SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is proving to be variable and may be mutating in response to immune pressure. SARS-specific research reagents should also be collected and shared. These would include SARS peptides, adjuvants, DNA vaccine vectors and clinical grade viral vectors. Rapidly developing a collaborative approach to developing a SARS vaccine that will be both effective and safe is the only way to go. This article reviews parallels between HIV and SARS and proposes an approach that would accelerate the development of a SARS vaccine.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Chapter 6 Ecoepidemiology of Alphaviruses and Flaviviruses Abstract Within the ecosystems, the balance is important since the populations maintain their size and the food habits that are constant over time; in contrast, the disappearance of natural sources or the alteration of habitat at different levels can cause major changes in the very structure of the ecosystem. Alterations in the habitats produced by human activity result in global warming, climatic changes, which together with globalization, increased trade, the shortening of distances thanks to transport, the increase in population and the socioeconomic activities of human cause imbalances. In many cases the vectors and hosts have adapted to the changes and have risen to higher latitudes and altitudes, which could contribute to the appearance of outbreaks or new outbreaks of new arboviruses of public health importance. Different cohabiting species can be reservoirs or vectors of arboviruses such as alphaviruses and flaviviruses. Currently, some viruses transmitted by mosquito vectors, such as dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya virus, have caused epidemic outbreaks with important effects on human populations. It is possible that the expansion of vectors and their diseases reaches developed countries such as the United States and the European Union with a great impact on public health. The clinical signs of the diseases produced by arboviruses can vary from nonspecific febrile syndrome, encephalitis, hemorrhagic fever, and even death. Vectors and reservoirs in some cases are insects, such as mosquitoes and ticks; wild birds are reservoirs for the West Nile virus, small wild mammals such as rodents, bats, and domestic animals involved in food production can potentially harbor arboviruses, and the ecoepidemiological role of these is unknown.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation BACKGROUND: An epidemic of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused by a new coronavirus has spread from the Guangdong province to the rest of China and to the world, with a puzzling contagion behavior. It is important both for predicting the future of the present outbreak and for implementing effective prophylactic measures, to identify the causes of this behavior. RESULTS: In this report, we show first that the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model cannot account for the patterns observed in various regions where the disease spread. We develop a model involving two superimposed epidemics to study the recent spread of the SARS in Hong Kong and in the region. We explore the situation where these epidemics may be caused either by a virus and one or several mutants that changed its tropism, or by two unrelated viruses. This has important consequences for the future: the innocuous epidemic might still be there and generate, from time to time, variants that would have properties similar to those of SARS. CONCLUSION: We find that, in order to reconcile the existing data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest that a first milder outbreak protected against the SARS. Regions that had not seen the first epidemic, or that were affected simultaneously with the SARS suffered much more, with a very high percentage of persons affected. We also find regions where the data appear to be inconsistent, suggesting that they are incomplete or do not reflect an appropriate identification of SARS patients. Finally, we could, within the framework of the model, fix limits to the future development of the epidemic, allowing us to identify landmarks that may be useful to set up a monitoring system to follow the evolution of the epidemic. The model also suggests that there might exist a SARS precursor in a large reservoir, prompting for implementation of precautionary measures when the weather cools down.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Caution on Kidney Dysfunctions of COVID-19 Patients Summary Background: To date, large amounts of epidemiological and case study data have been available for the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), which suggested that the mortality was related to not just respiratory complications. Here, we specifically analyzed kidney functions in COVID-19 patients and their relations to mortality. Methods: In this multi-centered, retrospective, observational study, we included 193 adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 2 hospitals in Wuhan, 1 hospital in Huangshi (Hubei province, 83 km from Wuhan) and 1 hospital in Chongqing (754 km from Wuhan). Demographic data, symptoms, laboratory values, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes were all collected, including data regarding to kidney functions. Data were compared among three groups: non-severe COVID-19 patients (128), severe COVID-19 patients (65) and a control group of other pneumonia (28). For the data from computed tomographic (CT) scans, we also included a control group of healthy subjects (110 cases, without abnormalities in the lung and without kidney diseases). The primary outcome was a common presence of kidney dysfunctions in COVID-19 patients and the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in a fraction of COVID-19 patients. Secondary outcomes included a survival analysis of COVID-19 patients in conditions of AKI or comorbid chronic illnesses. Findings: We included 193 COVID-19 patients (128 non-severe, 65 severe (including 32 non-survivors), between January 6th and February 21th,2020; the final date of follow-up was March 4th, 2020) and 28 patients of other pneumonia (15 of viral pneumonia, 13 of mycoplasma pneumonia) before the COVID-19 outbreak. On hospital admission, a remarkable fraction of patients had signs of kidney dysfunctions, including 59% with proteinuria, 44% with hematuria, 14% with increased levels of blood urea nitrogen, and 10% with increased levels of serum creatinine, although mild but worse than that in cases with other pneumonia. While these kidney dysfunctions might not be readily diagnosed as AKI at admission, over the progress during hospitalization they could be gradually worsened and diagnosed as AKI. A univariate Cox regression analysis showed that proteinuria, hematuria, and elevated levels of blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, uric acid as well as D-dimer were significantly associated with the death of COVID-19 patients respectively. Importantly, the Cox regression analysis also suggested that COVID-19 patients that developed AKI had a ~5.3-times mortality risk of those without AKI, much higher than that of comorbid chronic illnesses (~1.5 times risk of those without comorbid chronic illnesses). Interpretation: To prevent fatality in such conditions, we suggested a high degree of caution in monitoring the kidney functions of severe COVID-19 patients regardless of the past disease history. In addition, upon day-by-day monitoring, clinicians should consider any potential interventions to protect kidney functions at the early stage of the disease and renal replacement therapies in severely ill patients, particularly for those with strong inflammatory reactions or a cytokine storm. Funding: None.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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A large and accurate collection of peptidase cleavages in the MEROPS database Peptidases are enzymes that hydrolyse peptide bonds in proteins and peptides. Peptidases are important in pathological conditions such as Alzheimer's disease, tumour and parasite invasion, and for processing viral polyproteins. The MEROPS database is an Internet resource containing information on peptidases, their substrates and inhibitors. The database now includes details of cleavage positions in substrates, both physiological and non-physiological, natural and synthetic. There are 39 118 cleavages in the collection; including 34 606 from a total of 10 513 different proteins and 2677 cleavages in synthetic substrates. The number of cleavages designated as ‘physiological’ is 13 307. The data are derived from 6095 publications. At least one substrate cleavage is known for 45% of the 2415 different peptidases recognized in the MEROPS database. The website now has three new displays: two showing peptidase specificity as a logo and a frequency matrix, the third showing a dynamically generated alignment between each protein substrate and its most closely related homologues. Many of the proteins described in the literature as peptidase substrates have been studied only in vitro. On the assumption that a physiologically relevant cleavage site would be conserved between species, the conservation of every site in terms of peptidase preference has been examined and a number have been identified that are not conserved. There are a number of cogent reasons why a site might not be conserved. Each poorly conserved site has been examined and a reason postulated. Some sites are identified that are very poorly conserved where cleavage is more likely to be fortuitous than of physiological relevance. This data-set is freely available via the Internet and is a useful training set for algorithms to predict substrates for peptidases and cleavage positions within those substrates. The data may also be useful for the design of inhibitors and for engineering novel specificities into peptidases. Database URL: http://merops.sanger.ac.uk

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Synchronized shift of oral, faecal and urinary microbiotas in bats and natural infection dynamics during seasonal reproduction Seasonal reproduction is a period of extreme physiological and behavioural changes, yet we know little about how it may affect host microbial communities (i.e. microbiota) and pathogen transmission. Here, we investigated shifts of the bacterial microbiota in saliva, urine and faeces during the seasonal reproduction of bats in South Africa, and test for an interaction in shedding patterns of both bacterial (Leptospira) and viral (adeno- and herpesviruses) agents. Based on a comparative approach in two cave-dwelling bat species and high-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, we demonstrated a clear signature in microbiota changes over the reproduction season, consistent across the multiple body habitats investigated, and associated with the sex, age and reproductive condition of bats. We observed in parallel highly dynamic shedding patterns for both bacteria and viruses, but did not find a significant association between viral shedding and bacterial microbiota composition. Indeed, only Leptospira shedding was associated with alterations in both the diversity and composition of the urinary microbiota. These results illustrate how seasonal reproduction in bats substantially affects microbiota composition and infection dynamics, and have broad implications for the understanding of disease ecology in important reservoir hosts, such as bats.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Diseases of the Liver and Hepatobiliary System

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Zoonotic disease risk perceptions in the British veterinary profession Abstract In human and veterinary medicine, reducing the risk of occupationally-acquired infections relies on effective infection prevention and control practices (IPCs). In veterinary medicine, zoonoses present a risk to practitioners, yet little is known about how these risks are understood and how this translates into health protective behaviour. This study aimed to explore risk perceptions within the British veterinary profession and identify motivators and barriers to compliance with IPCs. A cross-sectional study was conducted using veterinary practices registered with the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons. Here we demonstrate that compliance with IPCs is influenced by more than just knowledge and experience, and understanding of risk is complex and multifactorial. Out of 252 respondents, the majority were not concerned about the risk of zoonoses (57.5%); however, a considerable proportion (34.9%) was. Overall, 44.0% of respondents reported contracting a confirmed or suspected zoonoses, most frequently dermatophytosis (58.6%). In veterinary professionals who had previous experience of managing zoonotic cases, time or financial constraints and a concern for adverse animal reactions were not perceived as barriers to use of personal protective equipment (PPE). For those working in large animal practice, the most significant motivator for using PPE was concerns over liability. When assessing responses to a range of different “infection control attitudes”, veterinary nurses tended to have a more positive perspective, compared with veterinary surgeons. Our results demonstrate that IPCs are not always adhered to, and factors influencing motivators and barriers to compliance are not simply based on knowledge and experience. Educating veterinary professionals may help improve compliance to a certain extent, however increased knowledge does not necessarily equate to an increase in risk-mitigating behaviour. This highlights that the construction of risk is complex and circumstance-specific and to get a real grasp on compliance with IPCs, this construction needs to be explored in more depth.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models. The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are willing to accept some disease risk to gain contact-related benefits. The cost-benefit trade-offs that shape contact behavior, and hence the course of epidemics, are often only implicitly incorporated in epidemiological models. This approach creates difficulty in parsing out the effects of adaptive behavior. We use an epidemiological-economic model of disease dynamics to explicitly model the trade-offs that drive person-to-person contact decisions. Results indicate that including adaptive human behavior significantly changes the predicted course of epidemics and that this inclusion has implications for parameter estimation and interpretation and for the development of social distancing policies. Acknowledging adaptive behavior requires a shift in thinking about epidemiological processes and parameters.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

0wxieyjq

Ethics and Terror Medicine The field of medicine has long been defined not only by diagnostic and treatment techniques but also by standards of behavior. The Hippocratic Oath was introduced about the same time as the concept of case histories and prognosis, in ancient Greece, fifth century BCE. Despite vast changes in medicine through the ages, the oath’s core message continues to resonate: that a physician has a special responsibility to perform honorably. Forms of the Hippocratic Oath are still recited during graduation ceremonies at medical schools, many in the United States, though the classical version has been altered to suit contemporary values.(1) For example, passages in the early oath that prohibited the practice of abortion or euthanasia now are commonly omitted. The shifting text is a reflection of attempts to accommodate medical ethics to new findings, experiences, and values.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Pathogen seasonality and links with weather in England and Wales: a big data time series analysis BACKGROUND: Many infectious diseases of public health importance display annual seasonal patterns in their incidence. We aimed to systematically document the seasonality of several human infectious disease pathogens in England and Wales, highlighting those organisms that appear weather-sensitive and therefore may be influenced by climate change in the future. METHODS: Data on infections in England and Wales from 1989 to 2014 were extracted from the Public Health England (PHE) SGSS surveillance database. We conducted a weekly, monthly and quarterly time series analysis of 277 pathogen serotypes. Each organism’s time series was forecasted using the TBATS package in R, with seasonality detected using model fit statistics. Meteorological data hosted on the MEDMI Platform were extracted at a monthly resolution for 2001–2011. The organisms were then clustered by K-means into two groups based on cross correlation coefficients with the weather variables. RESULTS: Examination of 12.9 million infection episodes found seasonal components in 91/277 (33%) organism serotypes. Salmonella showed seasonal and non-seasonal serotypes. These results were visualised in an online Rshiny application. Seasonal organisms were then clustered into two groups based on their correlations with weather. Group 1 had positive correlations with temperature (max, mean and min), sunshine and vapour pressure and inverse correlations with mean wind speed, relative humidity, ground frost and air frost. Group 2 had the opposite but also slight positive correlations with rainfall (mm, > 1 mm, > 10 mm). CONCLUSIONS: The detection of seasonality in pathogen time series data and the identification of relevant weather predictors can improve forecasting and public health planning. Big data analytics and online visualisation allow the relationship between pathogen incidence and weather patterns to be clarified. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5931-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19): The epidemic and the challenges The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; previously provisionally named 2019 novel coronavirus or 2019-nCoV) disease (COVID-19) in China at the end of 2019 has caused a large global outbreak and is a major public health issue. As of 11 February 2020, data from the World Health Organization (WHO) have shown that more than 43 000 confirmed cases have been identified in 28 countries/regions, with >99% of cases being detected in China. On 30 January 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as the sixth public health emergency of international concern. SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to two bat-derived severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronaviruses, bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21. It is spread by human-to-human transmission via droplets or direct contact, and infection has been estimated to have mean incubation period of 6.4 days and a basic reproduction number of 2.24–3.58. Among patients with pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus pneumonia or Wuhan pneumonia), fever was the most common symptom, followed by cough. Bilateral lung involvement with ground-glass opacity was the most common finding from computed tomography images of the chest. The one case of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in the USA is responding well to remdesivir, which is now undergoing a clinical trial in China. Currently, controlling infection to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is the primary intervention being used. However, public health authorities should keep monitoring the situation closely, as the more we can learn about this novel virus and its associated outbreak, the better we can respond.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Cytokine systems approach demonstrates differences in innate and pro-inflammatory host responses between genetically distinct MERS-CoV isolates BACKGROUND: The recent emergence of a novel coronavirus in the Middle East (designated MERS-CoV) is a reminder of the zoonotic and pathogenic potential of emerging coronaviruses in humans. Clinical features of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) include atypical pneumonia and progressive respiratory failure that is highly reminiscent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by SARS-CoV. The host response is a key component of highly pathogenic respiratory virus infection. Here, we computationally analyzed gene expression changes in a human airway epithelial cell line infected with two genetically distinct MERS-CoV strains obtained from human patients, MERS-CoV SA 1 and MERS-CoV Eng 1. RESULTS: Using topological techniques, including persistence homology and filtered clustering, we performed a comparative transcriptional analysis of human Calu-3 cell host responses to the different MERS-CoV strains, with MERS-CoV Eng 1 inducing early kinetic changes, between 3 and 12 hours post infection, compared to MERS-CoV SA 1. Robust transcriptional changes distinguished the two MERS-CoV strains predominantly at the late time points. Combining statistical analysis of infection and cytokine-stimulated Calu-3 transcriptomics, we identified differential innate responses, including up-regulation of extracellular remodeling genes following MERS-CoV Eng 1 infection and differential pro-inflammatory responses. CONCLUSIONS: Through our genomics-based approach, we found topological differences in the kinetics and magnitude of the host response to MERS-CoV SA 1 and MERS-CoV Eng 1, with differential expression of innate immune and pro-inflammatory responsive genes as a result of IFN, TNF and IL-1α signaling. Predicted activation for STAT3 mediating gene expression relevant for epithelial cell-to-cell adherens and junction signaling in MERS-CoV Eng 1 infection suggest that these transcriptional differences may be the result of amino acid differences in viral proteins known to modulate innate immunity during MERS-CoV infection. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-1161) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Work-related Covid-19 transmission Importance: Our study helps fill the knowledge gap related to work-related transmission in the emerging coronaviral pandemic. Objective: To demonstrate high-risk occupations for early coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) local transmission. Methods: In this observational study, we extracted confirmed Covid-19 cases from governmental investigation reports in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. We followed each country/area for 40 days after its first locally transmitted case, and excluded all imported cases. We defined a possible work-related case as a worker with evidence of close contact with another confirmed case due to work, or an unknown contact history but likely to be infected in the working environment (e.g. an airport taxi driver). We calculated the case number for each occupation, and illustrated the temporal distribution of all possible work-related cases and healthcare worker (HCW) cases. The temporal distribution was further defined as early outbreak (the earliest 10 days of the following period) and late outbreak (11th to 40th days of the following period). Results: We identified 103 possible work-related cases (14.9%) among a total of 690 local transmissions. The five occupation groups with the most cases were healthcare workers (HCWs) (22%), drivers and transport workers (18%), services and sales workers (18%), cleaning and domestic workers (9%) and public safety workers (7%). Possible work-related transmission played a substantial role in early outbreak (47.7% of early cases). Occupations at risk varied from early outbreak (predominantly services and sales workers, drivers, construction laborers, and religious professionals) to late outbreak (predominantly HCWs, drivers, cleaning and domestic workers, police officers, and religious professionals). Conclusions: Work-related transmission is considerable in early Covid-19 outbreaks, and the elevated risk of infection was not limited to HCW. Implementing preventive/surveillance strategies for high-risk working populations is warranted.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Epitope-based chimeric peptide vaccine design against S, M and E proteins of SARS-CoV-2 etiologic agent of global pandemic COVID-19: an in silico approach Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a public health emergency of international concern declared by the World Health Organization (WHO). An immuno-informatics approach along with comparative genomic was applied to design a multi-epitope-based peptide vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 combining the antigenic epitopes of the S, M and E proteins. The tertiary structure was predicted, refined and validated using advanced bioinformatics tools. The candidate vaccine showed an average of ≥ 90.0% world population coverage for different ethnic groups. Molecular docking of the chimeric vaccine peptide with the immune receptors (TLR3 and TLR4) predicted efficient binding. Immune simulation predicted significant primary immune response with increased IgM and secondary immune response with high levels of both IgG1 and IgG2. It also increased the proliferation of T-helper cells and cytotoxic T-cells along with the increased INF-γ and IL-2 cytokines. The codon optimization and mRNA secondary structure prediction revealed the chimera is suitable for high-level expression and cloning. Overall, the constructed recombinant chimeric vaccine candidate demonstrated significant potential and can be considered for clinical validation to fight against this global threat, COVID-19.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

11hi1jel

Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults RAPID COMMUNICATION 22 March 2020 Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults Background: The medical, health service, societal and economic impact of the COVID-19 emergency has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom (to date at least) have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high risk conditions or their longer term background (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence rates and differing mortality impacts. Methods: Using population based linked primary and secondary care electronic health records in England (HDR UK - CALIBER), we report the prevalence of underlying conditions defined by UK Public Health England COVID-19 guidelines (16 March 2020) in 3,862,012 individuals aged ≥30 years from 1997-2017. We used previously validated phenotypes, openly available (https://caliberresearch.org/portal), for each condition using ICD-10 diagnosis, Read, procedure and medication codes. We estimated the 1-year mortality in each condition, and developed simple models of excess COVID-19-related deaths assuming relative risk (RR) of the impact of the emergency (compared to background mortality) of 1.2, 1.5 and 2.0. Findings: 20.0% of the population are at risk according to current PHE guidelines, of which; 13.7% were age>70 years and 6.3% aged ≤70 years with ≥1 underlying condition (cardiovascular disease (2.3%), diabetes (2.2%), steroid therapy (1.9%), severe obesity (0.9%), chronic kidney disease (0.6%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD (0.5%). Multimorbidity (co-occurrence of ≥2 conditions in an individual) was common (10.1%). The 1-year mortality in the at-risk population was 4.46%, and age and underlying conditions combine to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions (5.9% in age>70 years, 8.6% for COPD and 13.1% in those with ≥3 or more conditions). In a suppression scenario (at SARS CoV2 rates of 0.001% of the UK population), there would be minimal excess deaths (3 and 7 excess deaths at relative risk, RR, 1.5 and 2.0 respectively). At SARS CoV2 rates of 10% of the UK population (mitigation) the model estimates the numbers of excess deaths as: 13791, 34479 and 68957 (at RR 1.2, 1.5 and 2.0 respectively). At SARS CoV2 rates of 80% in the UK population (do-nothing), the model estimates the number of excess deaths as 110332, 275,830 and 551,659 (at RR 1.2, 1.5 and 2.0) respectively. Interpretation: We provide the public, researchers and policy makers a simple model to estimate the excess mortality over 1 year from COVID-19, based on underlying conditions at different ages. If the relative mortality impact of COVID-19 were to be about 20% (similar magnitude as the established winter vs summer mortality excess), then the excess deaths would be 0 when 1 in 100 000 (suppression), 13791 when 1 in 10 (mitigation) and 110332 when 8 in 10 are infected (do nothing) scenario. However, the relative impact of COVID-19 is unknown. If the emergency were to double the mortality risk, then we estimate 7, 68957 and 551,659 excess deaths in the same scenarios. These results may inform the need for more stringent suppression measures as well as efforts to target those at highest risk for a range of preventive interventions.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Climate Change and Health in Canada

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure–response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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An oncologist perspective on COVID 19: A mysterious cryptic virus

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Ecology of Neglected Rodent-Borne American Orthohantaviruses The number of documented American orthohantaviruses has increased significantly over recent decades, but most fundamental research has remained focused on just two of them: Andes virus (ANDV) and Sin Nombre virus (SNV). The majority of American orthohantaviruses are known to cause disease in humans, and most of these pathogenic strains were not described prior to human cases, indicating the importance of understanding all members of the virus clade. In this review, we summarize information on the ecology of under-studied rodent-borne American orthohantaviruses to form general conclusions and highlight important gaps in knowledge. Information regarding the presence and genetic diversity of many orthohantaviruses throughout the distributional range of their hosts is minimal and would significantly benefit from virus isolations to indicate a reservoir role. Additionally, few studies have investigated the mechanisms underlying transmission routes and factors affecting the environmental persistence of orthohantaviruses, limiting our understanding of factors driving prevalence fluctuations. As landscapes continue to change, host ranges and human exposure to orthohantaviruses likely will as well. Research on the ecology of neglected orthohantaviruses is necessary for understanding both current and future threats to human health.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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COVID-19: time for paradigm shift in the nexus between local, national and global health

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Modeling Disease Spread at Global Mass Gatherings: Data Requirements and Challenges Spread of infectious diseases at global mass gatherings can pose health threats to both the hosting country and the countries where participants originate. The travel patterns at the end of these international events may result in epidemics that can grow to pandemic levels within a short period of time. Computational models are essential tools to estimate, study, and control disease outbreaks at mass gatherings. These models can be integrated in the planning and preparation process of mass gatherings. In this paper, we present a review of the key data requirements and the challenges encountered when modeling infectious diseases epidemics initiated by global mass gatherings. This review can assist epidemic modeling at global mass gatherings providing researchers with insights of the main aspects and possible big data opportunities in this emerging research area.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Do Face Masks Create a False Sense of Security? A COVID-19 Dilemma Face masks have become an emblem of the public response to COVID-19, with many governments mandating their use in public spaces. The logic is that face masks are low cost and might help prevent some transmission. However, from the start, the assumption that face masks are "low cost" was questioned. Early on, there were warnings of the opportunity cost of public use of medical masks given shortages of personal protective equipment for healthcare providers. This led to recommendations for cloth masks and other face coverings, with little evidence of their ability to prevent transmission. However, there may also be a high cost to these recommendations if people rely on face masks in place of other more effective ways to break transmission, such as staying home. We use SafeGraph smart device location data to show that the representative American in states that have face mask mandates spent 20-30 minutes less time at home, and increase visits to a number of commercial locations, following the mandate. Since the reproductive rate of SAR-COV2, the pathogen that causes COVID-19 is hovering right around one, such substitution behavior could be the difference between controlling the epidemic and a resurgence of cases.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Provider Burnout and Fatigue During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned From a High-Volume Intensive Care Unit

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Seasonal Fluctuations of Astrovirus, But Not Coronavirus Shedding in Bats Inhabiting Human-Modified Tropical Forests Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are considered a major threat to global health. Most EIDs appear to result from increased contact between wildlife and humans, especially when humans encroach into formerly pristine habitats. Habitat deterioration may also negatively affect the physiology and health of wildlife species, which may eventually lead to a higher susceptibility to infectious agents and/or increased shedding of the pathogens causing EIDs. Bats are known to host viruses closely related to important EIDs. Here, we tested in a paleotropical forest with ongoing logging and fragmentation, whether habitat disturbance influences the occurrence of astro- and coronaviruses in eight bat species. In contrast to our hypothesis, anthropogenic habitat disturbance was not associated with corona- and astrovirus detection rates in fecal samples. However, we found that bats infected with either astro- or coronaviruses were likely to be coinfected with the respective other virus. Additionally, we identified two more risk factors influencing astrovirus shedding. First, the detection rate of astroviruses was higher at the beginning of the rainy compared to the dry season. Second, there was a trend that individuals with a poor body condition had a higher probability of shedding astroviruses in their feces. The identification of risk factors for increased viral shedding that may potentially result in increased interspecies transmission is important to prevent viral spillovers from bats to other animals, including humans.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Intrinsic resistance of feline peritoneal macrophages to coronavirus infection correlates with in vivo virulence. Cats infected with virulent feline coronavirus strains develop feline infectious peritonitis, an invariably fatal, immunologically mediated disease; avirulent strains cause either clinically inapparent infection or mild enteritis. Four virulent coronavirus isolates and five avirulent isolates were assessed by immunofluorescence and virus titration for their ability to infect and replicate in feline peritoneal macrophages in vitro. The avirulent coronaviruses infected fewer macrophages, produced lower virus titers, were less able to sustain viral replication, and spread less efficiently to other susceptible macrophages than the virulent coronaviruses. Thus, the intrinsic resistance of feline macrophages may play a pivotal role in the outcome of coronavirus infection in vivo.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): An overview of viral structure and host response Abstract Background and aim As a result of its rapid spread in various countries around the world, on March 11, 2020, WHO issued an announcement of the change in coronavirus disease 2019 status from epidemic to pandemic disease. The virus that causes this disease is indicated originating from animals traded in a live animal market in Wuhan, China. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 can attack lung cells because there are many conserved receptor entries, namely Angiotensin Converting Enzyme-2. The presence of this virus in host cells will initiate various protective responses leading to pneumonia and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. This review aimed to provide an overview related to this virus and examine the body's responses and possible therapies. Method We searched PubMed databases for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2, Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus. Full texts were retrieved, analyzed and developed into an easy-to-understand review. Results We provide a complete review related to structure, origin, and how the body responds to this virus infection and explain the possibility of an immune system over-reaction or cytokine storm. We also include an explanation of how this virus creates modes of avoidance to evade immune system attacks. We further explain the therapeutic approaches that can be taken in the treatment and prevention of this viral infection. Conclusion In summary, based on the structural and immune-evasion system of coronavirus, we suggest several approaches to treat the disease.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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El síndrome respiratorio agudo grave: primera pandemia del siglo XXI

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Reasoning of spike glycoproteins being more vulnerable to mutations among 158 coronavirus proteins from different species In this study, we used the probabilistic models developed by us over the last several years to analyze 158 proteins from coronaviruses in order to determine which protein is more vulnerable to mutations. The results provide three lines of evidence suggesting that the spike glycoprotein is different from the other coronavirus proteins: (1) the spike glycoprotein is more sensitive to mutations, this is the current state of the spike glycoprotein, (2) the spike glycoprotein has undergone more mutations in the past, this is the history of spike glycoprotein, and (3) the spike glycoprotein has a bigger potential towards future mutations, this is the future of spike glycoprotein. Furthermore, this study gives a clue on the species susceptibility regarding different proteins. Figure Predictable and unpredictable portions in coronavirus proteins. The data are presented as median with interquartile range. * the predictable and unpredictable portions in spike glycoprotein group are statistically different from any other protein groups at p<0.05 level, except for hemagglutinin-esterase precursor group. # the predictable and unpredictable portions in spike glycoprotein group are statistically different from hemagglutinin-esterase precursor, membrane protein and nucleocapsid protein groups at p<0.05 level. † the predictable and unpredictable portions in spike glycoprotein group are statistically different from hemagglutinin-esterase precursor, and membrane protein groups at p<0.05 level. Electronic Supplementary Material is available for this article if you access the article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00894-004-0210-0.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Metronomic oral vinorelbine and lung cancer therapy during the COVID 19 pandemic: a single-center experience • Intravenous vinorelbine is a standard treatment for advanced NSCLC; • Oral vinorelbine is equally effective as compared to intravenous vinorelbine; • Metronomic oral formulation of vinorelbine is a safe and active treatment for advanced NSCLC; • No established treatment is a “gold standard” during COVID19 era; • Metronomic oral vinorelbine permitted to carry on active treatment during COVID Emergency; • Metronomic oral vinorelbine reduce side effects and hospital visits to lung cancer patients; • Management of lung cancer patients may be improved by metronomic oral vinorelbine.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Deep Learning Assisted Memetic Algorithm for Shortest Route Problems Finding the shortest route between a pair of origin and destination is known to be a crucial and challenging task in intelligent transportation systems. Current methods assume fixed travel time between any pairs, thus the efficiency of these approaches is limited because the travel time in reality can dynamically change due to factors including the weather conditions, the traffic conditions, the time of the day and the day of the week, etc. To address this dynamic situation, we propose a novel two-stage approach to find the shortest route. Firstly deep learning is utilised to predict the travel time between a pair of origin and destination. Weather conditions are added into the input data to increase the accuracy of travel time predicition. Secondly, a customised Memetic Algorithm is developed to find shortest route using the predicted travel time. The proposed memetic algorithm uses genetic algorithm for exploration and local search for exploiting the current search space around a given solution. The effectiveness of the proposed two-stage method is evaluated based on the New York City taxi benchmark dataset. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed method is highly effective compared with state-of-the-art methods.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Rhinovirus-Induced Exacerbations of Asthma and COPD Over the past two decades, increasing evidence has shown that, in patients with chronic airways disease, viral infection is the most common cause of exacerbation. This review will examine the evidence for viral-induced exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive lung disease and the potential mechanisms by which viruses cause exacerbations. Attention will be focused on rhinovirus, the most common cause of respiratory exacerbations. Exacerbations due to rhinovirus, which infects relatively few cells in the airway and does not cause the cytotoxicity of other viruses such as influenza or respiratory syncytial virus, are particularly poorly understood. While the innate immune response likely plays a role in rhinovirus-induced exacerbations, its precise role, either adaptive or maladaptive, is debated. Because current treatment strategies are only partially effective, further research examining the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying viral-induced exacerbations of chronic airways diseases is warranted.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Chapter 2 Syndromic surveillance using web data: a systematic review Abstract During the recent years, a lot of debate is taken place about the evolution of Smart Healthcare systems. Particularly, how these systems can help people improve human conditions of health, by taking advantages of the new Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), regarding early prediction and efficient treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic review of the current literature available that focuses on information systems on syndromic surveillance using web data. All published items concern articles, books, reviews, reports, conference announcements, and dissertations. We used a variation of PRISMA Statements methodology to conduct a systematic review. The review identifies the relevant published papers from the year 2004 to 2018, systematically includes and explores them to extract similarities, gaps, and conclusions on the research that has been done so far. The results presented concern the year, the examined disease, the web data source, the geographic location/country, and the data analysis method used. The results show that influenza is the most examined infectious disease. The internet tools most used are Twitter and Google. Regarding the geographical areas explored in the published papers, the most examined country is the United States, since many scientists come from this country. There is a significant growth of articles since 2009. There are also various statistical methods used to correlate the data retrieved from the internet to the data from national authorities. The conclusion of all researches is that the Web can be a useful tool for the detection of serious epidemics and for a creation of a syndromic surveillance system using the Web, since we can predict epidemics from web data before they are officially detected in population. With the advance of ICT, Smart Healthcare can benefit from the monitoring of epidemics and the early prediction of such a system, improving national or international health strategies and policy decision. This can be achieved through the provision of new technology tools to enhance health monitoring systems toward the new innovations of Smart Health or eHealth, even with the emerging technologies of Internet of Things. The challenges and impacts of an electronic system based on internet data include the social, medical, and technological disciplines. These can be further extended to Smart Healthcare, as the data streaming can provide with real-time information, awareness on epidemics and alerts for both patients or medical scientists. Finally, these new systems can help improve the standards of human life.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Structural basis of SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro and anti-COVID-19 drug discovery from medicinal plants † Abstract The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 in December 2019 raised global health concerns. The viral 3-chymotrypsin-like cysteine protease (3CLpro) enzyme controls coronavirus replication and is essential for its life cycle. 3CLpro is a proven drug discovery target in the case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Recent studies revealed that the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 is very similar to that of SARS-CoV. Therefore, herein, we analysed the 3CLpro sequence, constructed its 3D homology model, and screened it against a medicinal plant library containing 32,297 potential anti-viral phytochemicals/traditional Chinese medicinal compounds. Our analyses revealed that the top nine hits might serve as potential anti- SARS-CoV-2 lead molecules for further optimisation and drug development process to combat COVID-19.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Prediction of New Coronavirus Infection Based on a Modified SEIR Model BACKGROUND The outbreak of the new coronavirus infection in Wuhan City, Hubei Province in December 2019, poses a huge threat to China and even global public health security. Respiratory droplets and contact transmission are the main routes of transmission of new coronaviruses. Compared with SARS and Ebola viruses, new coronavirus infections are infectious during the incubation period. Traditional SEIR (susceptibility-exposure-infection-Removal) There are some differences in conditions for the prediction of the epidemic trend of new coronavirus infection. The outbreak of the new coronavirus infection coincided with the Spring Festival before and after the Chinese Spring Festival.It is necessary to make appropriate optimization and amendments to the traditional model to meet the actual evolution of the epidemic situation. METHODS The traditional SEIR model assumes that the virus-infected person is not infectious during the incubation period and that the infected person did not take isolation measures during the illness. The transmission of the new coronavirus no longer meets the basic assumptions of the classical kinetic system. Therefore, this article first establishes a modified SEIR model. Predict and analyze the changing trend of the epidemic situation, then estimate the parameters involved in the infection dynamics model, and then use Matlab to simulate the established dynamic equations based on public data and analyze the results. Recommendations for universal prevention and control of infectious diseases. RESULTS The first case of new coronavirus infection was confirmed in Wuhan on December 8, 2019. When Wuhan City took no action, assuming the average daily number of contacts per infected person k = 5, the number of infected persons will reach about 2,384,803 people; If wuhan adopts the measures of sealing the city on January 22, 2020, under the premise of k=2, the number of infected people decreases by 19,773 compared with that on January 23, and there is no significant change in the time when the number of infected people reaches the peak. Under the premise of k = 1, the number of infected persons was reduced by 14,330 compared with the closure on January 23, and the time to reach the peak of the number of infected persons was reduced by 2 days. If Wuhan City is closed for one day, the number of infected persons will increase from 106,145 to 130,626 under the premise of k = 2; the number of infected persons will increase from 74,369 to 92,010 under the premise of k = 1. CONCLUSIONS Comparing the number of confirmed diagnoses actually notified by the department with the number of infected people obtained from the simulation of the model, it can be seen that the city closure measures adopted by the Wuhan Municipal Government on January 23 and the first-level response measures adopted by the country are effective for the epidemic Prevention and control play a vital role. Wearing a mask when going out and avoiding close contact with people can effectively reduce the infection rate.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Disease ecology and the global emergence of zoonotic pathogens The incidence and frequency of epidemic transmission of zoonotic diseases, both known and newly recognized, has increased dramatically in the past 30 years. It is thought that this dramatic disease emergence is primarily the result of the social, demographic, and environmental transformation that has occurred globally since World War II. However, the causal linkages have not been elucidated. Investigating emerging zoonotic pathogens as an ecological phenomenon can provide significant insights as to why some of these pathogens have jumped species and caused major epidemics in humans. A review of concepts and theory from biological ecology and of causal factors in disease emergence previously described suggests a general model of global zoonotic disease emergence. The model links demographic and societal factors to land use and land cover change whose associated ecological factors help explain disease emergence. The scale and magnitude of these changes are more significant than those associated with climate change, the effects of which are largely not yet understood. Unfortunately, the complex character and non-linear behavior of the human-natural systems in which host-pathogen systems are embedded makes specific incidences of disease emergence or epidemics inherently difficult to predict. Employing a complex systems analytical approach, however, may show how a few key ecological variables and system properties, including the adaptive capacity of institutions, explains the emergence of infectious diseases and how an integrated, multi-level approach to zoonotic disease control can reduce risk.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Large-scale evolutionary surveillance of the 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus using resequencing arrays In April 2009, a new influenza A (H1N1 2009) virus emerged that rapidly spread around the world. While current variants of this virus have caused widespread disease, particularly in vulnerable groups, there remains the possibility that future variants may cause increased virulence, drug resistance or vaccine escape. Early detection of these virus variants may offer the chance for increased containment and potentially prevention of the virus spread. We have developed and field-tested a resequencing kit that is capable of interrogating all eight segments of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus genome and its variants, with added focus on critical regions such as drug-binding sites, structural components and mutation hotspots. The accompanying base-calling software (EvolSTAR) introduces novel methods that utilize neighbourhood hybridization intensity profiles and substitution bias of probes on the microarray for mutation confirmation and recovery of ambiguous base queries. Our results demonstrate that EvolSTAR is highly accurate and has a much improved call rate. The high throughput and short turn-around time from sample to sequence and analysis results (30 h for 24 samples) makes this kit an efficient large-scale evolutionary biosurveillance tool.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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A review on microbial contaminants in stormwater runoff and outfalls: Potential health risks and mitigation strategies Abstract Demands on global water supplies are increasing in response to the need to provide more food, water, and energy for a rapidly growing population. These water stressors are exacerbated by climate change, as well as the growth and urbanisation of industry and commerce. Consequently, urban water authorities around the globe are exploring alternative water sources to meet ever-increasing demands. These alternative sources are primarily treated sewage, stormwater, and groundwater. Stormwater including roof-harvested rainwater has been considered as an alternative water source for both potable and non-potable uses. One of the most significant issues concerning alternative water reuse is the public health risk associated with chemical and microbial contaminants. Several studies to date have quantified fecal indicators and pathogens in stormwater. Microbial source tracking (MST) approaches have also been used to determine the sources of fecal contamination in stormwater and receiving waters. This review paper summarizes occurrence and concentrations of fecal indicators, pathogens, and MST marker genes in urban stormwater. A section of the review highlights the removal of fecal indicators and pathogens through water sensitive urban design (WSUD) or Best Management Practices (BMPs). We also discuss approaches for assessing and mitigating health risks associated with stormwater, including a summary of existing quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models for potable and non-potable reuse of stormwater. Finally, the most critical research gaps are identified for formulating risk management strategies.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Outdoor environments and human pathogens in air Are pathogens in outdoor air a health issue at present or will they become a problem in the future? A working group called AirPath - Outdoor Environments and Human Pathogens in Air was set up in 2007 at University College London, UK with the aim of opening new discussion and creating a research network to investigate the science and impacts of outdoor pathogens. Our objective in this paper is to review and discuss the following areas: What is the source of human pathogens in outdoor air? What current, developing and future techniques do we need? Can we identify at-risk groups in relation to their activities and environments? How do we prepare for the anticipated challenges of environmental change and new and emerging diseases? And how can we control for and prevent pathogens in outdoor environments? We think that this work can benefit the wider research community and policy makers by providing a concise overview of various research aspects and considerations which may be important to their work.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Medical mask versus cotton mask for preventing respiratory droplet transmission in micro environments Abstract The objective of this study was to investigate whether cotton mask worn by respiratory infection person could suppress respiratory droplet levels compared to medical mask. We recruited adult volunteers with confirmed influenza and suspected cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to wear medical masks and self-designed triple-layer cotton masks in a regular bedroom and a car with air conditioning. Four 1-hour repeated measurements (two measurements for bedroom the others for car) of particles with a size range of 20–1000 nm measured by number concentrations (NC0.02–1), temperature and relatively humidity, and cough/sneeze counts per hour were conducted for each volunteer. The paired t-tests were used for within-group comparisons in a bedroom and in a car. The results showed that there was no significant difference in NC0.02–1 or cough/sneeze counts between volunteers with medical masks and cotton masks in a bedroom or a car. We concluded that the cotton mask could be a potential substitute for medical mask for respiratory infection person in microenvironment with air conditioning. Healthy people may daily use cotton mask in the community since cotton mask is washable and reusable.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Circulating influenza virus, climatic factors, and acute myocardial infarction: a time series study in England and Wales and Hong Kong. BACKGROUND Previous studies identifying associations between influenza and acute cardiac events may have been confounded by climatic factors. Differing seasonal patterns of influenza activity in Hong Kong and England and Wales provide a natural experiment to examine associations with myocardial infarction (MI) independent of cold weather effects. METHODS Weekly clinical and laboratory influenza surveillance data, environmental temperature and humidity data, and counts of MI-associated hospitalizations and deaths were obtained for England and Wales and for Hong Kong for the period 1998-2008. We used Poisson regression models that included environmental and seasonal variables to investigate the relationship between influenza and MI. RESULTS There were ≥1.2 million MI-associated hospitalizations and 410,204 MI-associated deaths in England and Wales, with a marked peak in the winter season. In Hong Kong, the incidence of MI, on the basis of 65,108 hospitalizations and 18,780 deaths, had a large winter and smaller summer peak, mirroring patterns of influenza activity. There was strong evidence for a link between influenza and MI both in England and Wales, where 3.1%-3.4% of MI-associated deaths (P < .001) and 0.7%-1.2% of MI-associated hospitalizations (P < .001) were attributable to influenza, and in Hong Kong, where the corresponding figures were 3.9%-5.6% (P = .018) and 3.0%-3.3% (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS Influenza was associated with an increase in MI-associated deaths and hospitalizations in 2 contrasting settings.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

1zzyfmkb

Redesigning a large school-based clinical trial in response to changes in community practice Background Asthma exacerbations are seasonal with the greatest risk in elementary-age students occurring shortly after returning to school following summer break. Recent research suggests that this seasonality in children is primarily related to viral respiratory tract infections. Regular hand washing is the most effective method to prevent the spread of viral respiratory infections; unfortunately, achieving hand washing recommendations in schools is difficult. Therefore, we designed a study to evaluate the effect of hand sanitizer use in elementary schools on exacerbations among children with asthma. Purpose To describe the process of redesigning the trial in response to changes in the safety profile of the hand sanitizer as well as changes in hand hygiene practice in the schools. Methods The original trial was a randomized, longitudinal, subject-blinded, placebo-controlled, community-based crossover trial. The primary aim was to evaluate the incremental effectiveness of hand sanitizer use in addition to usual hand hygiene practices to decrease asthma exacerbations in elementary-age children. Three events occurred that required major modifications to the original study protocol: (1) safety concerns arose regarding the hand sanitizer’s active ingredient; (2) no substitute placebo hand sanitizer was available; and (3) community preferences changed regarding hand hygiene practices in the schools. Results The revised protocol is a randomized, longitudinal, community-based crossover trial. The primary aim is to evaluate the incremental effectiveness of a two-step hand hygiene process (hand hygiene education plus institutionally provided alcohol-based hand sanitizer) versus usual care to decrease asthma exacerbations. Enrollment was completed in May 2009 with 527 students from 30 schools. The intervention began in August 2009 and will continue through May 2011. Study results should be available at the end of 2011. Limitations The changed design does not allow us to directly measure the effectiveness of hand sanitizer use as a supplement to traditional hand washing practices. Conclusions The need to balance a rigorous study design with one that is acceptable to the community requires investigators to be actively involved with community collaborators and able to adapt study protocols to fit changing community practices.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Events postponed or cancelled because of the coronavirus outbreak A number of events that cover developments in sealing technology and related products have been postponed, or even cancelled, in response to the rapidly changing circumstances associated with the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Understanding SARS-CoV-2: Genetic Diversity, Transmission and Cure in Human As the SARS-CoV-2 virus race around the world across the different population, there needs to be a consolidated effort to understand the divergence of demographically distributed strains. The emerging trends in SARS-CoV-2 genome data show specific mutation and genetic diversity, which could provide the basis to develop a cocktail of vaccine and may also be used to develop the region-specific diagnostic tool, thus decreasing the chances of testing failures in fields. Since the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is subject to the extent of human interaction, the insights from the correlation of genetic diversity with epidemiological parameter would give paramount information to tackle this transmission. Previously, studies have also correlated the epidemiological data with gut microbiome and its role in immunomodulation for maintaining health status, and such information could be generated from recovered individuals from different demographic regions. It will help in designing a probiotic-based diet for modulation of the gut microbiome, and that could be another plausible prophylactic treatment option. The genomics data suggest that a specific variant of SARS-CoV-2 gets enriched with the specific demographic region. Overall, demographic data suggests that host influences mutation and expression of the virus. Hence, the experiences from the clinical intervention for that region should be considered in control and treatment strategies.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Removal of atmospheric CO2 by rock weathering holds promise for mitigating climate change.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

230p8rsf

Molecular Interactions in the Assembly of Coronaviruses Publisher Summary This chapter describes the interactions between the different structural components of the viruses and discusses their relevance for the process of virion formation. Two key factors determine the efficiency of the assembly process: intracellular transport and molecular interactions. Many viruses have evolved elaborate strategies to ensure the swift and accurate delivery of the virion components to the cellular compartment(s) where they must meet and form (sub) structures. Assembly of viruses starts in the nucleus by the encapsidation of viral DNA, using cytoplasmically synthesized capsid proteins; nucleocapsids then migrate to the cytosol, by budding at the inner nuclear membrane followed by deenvelopment, to pick up the tegument proteins.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Global rheumatology in the time of COVID-19

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Viral respiratory disease in pregnancy. PURPOSE OF REVIEW Recently there has been an increased concern over viral respiratory infections and their potential for a pandemic. This concern makes it important to review the most current guidelines for the management of viral respiratory diseases in pregnancy. RECENT FINDINGS The topics covered are influenza, avian influenza, and severe acute respiratory syndrome. SUMMARY Pregnant women have an increased susceptibility to viral respiratory diseases. The most common respiratory virus to infect pregnant women is influenza. All women who intend to become pregnant or are pregnant should receive the influenza vaccine. If a pregnant woman develops influenza she should be treated with supportive care. Antiviral medications should be reserved for cases where the benefits outweigh the risks. Avian influenza (H5N1) is a new emerging virus usually contracted from direct contact with diseased birds. There is no commercially available vaccine at this time to prevent infection. Pregnant women should be treated aggressively with supportive care and antiviral medications, as the significant risk of maternal mortality outweighs the potential fetal risks. Pregnant women diagnosed clinically with severe acute respiratory syndrome should be treated empirically, as a serologic diagnosis can take weeks to confirm. The treatment of pregnant women with severe acute respiratory syndrome should be without ribavirin.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Phylogenetic Analysis and Structural Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Reveals an Evolutionary Distinct and Proteolytically Sensitive Activation Loop The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) originally arose as part of a major outbreak of respiratory disease centered on Hubei province, China. It is now a global pandemic and is a major public health concern. Taxonomically, SARS-CoV-2 was shown to be a Betacoronavirus (lineage B) closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-related bat coronaviruses, and it has been reported to share a common receptor with SARS-CoV (ACE-2). Subsequently, betacoronaviruses from pangolins were identified as close relatives to SARS-CoV-2. Here, we perform structural modeling of the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein. Our data provide support for the similar receptor utilization between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, despite a relatively low amino acid similarity in the receptor binding module. Compared to SARS-CoV and all other coronaviruses in Betacoronavirus lineage B, we identify an extended structural loop containing basic amino acids at the interface of the receptor binding (S1) and fusion (S2) domains. We suggest this loop confers fusion activation and entry properties more in line with betacoronaviruses in lineages A and C, and be a key component in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 with this structural loop affecting virus stability and transmission.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Psychological responses, behavioral changes and public perceptions during the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in China: a population based cross-sectional survey Objective: To investigate psychological and behavioral responses to the threat of SARS-CoV-2 infections and their associations with public perceptions in China Design: Cross sectional population-based telephone survey via random digital dialing between 1 and 10 February, 2020 Setting: Wuhan (the epicentre and quarantined city), and Shanghai (a typical major city with close transportation link with Wuhan) Participants: Random sample of 510 residents in Wuhan and 501 residents in Shanghai aged above 18 Main outcome measures: Anxiety (measured by the 7-item generalized anxiety disorder [GAD-7] scale), recommended and avoidance behaviors (engaged in all six behaviors such as increasing surface cleaning and reducing going out). Results: The prevalence rates of moderate or severe anxiety (score ≥10 on GAD-7) were 32.7% (n=167) among Wuhan participants and 20.4% (n=102) among Shanghai participants. 78.6% (n=401) of Wuhan participants and 63.9% (n=320) of Shanghai participants had carried out all six precautionary behaviors. For both measures, Wuhan participants were more responsive to the outbreak (p<0.001). Controlling for personal characteristics, logistic regression results suggested that risks of moderate or severe anxiety were positively associated with perceived susceptibility (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3-1.8) and severity of the disease (1.6, 1.4-1.9) and confusion about information reliability (1.6, 1.5-1.9). Having confidence in taking measures to protect oneself against the disease was associated with a lower risk (0.6, 0.5-0.7). The strongest predictor of behavioral change was perceived severity (1.2, 1.1-1.4), followed by confusion about information reliability (1.1, 1.0-1.3). Conclusions: Psychological and behavioral responses to COVID-19 have been dramatic during the rising phase of the outbreak. Our results support efforts for timely dissemination of accurate and reliable information to address the high anxiety level.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Timely mental health care for the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak is urgently needed

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Changes in epithelial secretory cells and potentiation of neurogenic inflammation in the trachea of rats with respiratory tract infections In rats respiratory tract infections due to Sendai virus and coronavirus usually are transient, but they can have long-lasting consequences when accompanied by Mycoplasma pulmonis infections. Morphological alterations in the tracheal epithelium and a potentiation of the inflammatory response evoked by sensory nerve stimulation (“neurogenic inflammation”) are evident nine weeks after the infections begin, but the extent to which these changes are present at earlier times is not known. In the present study we characterized these abnormalities in the epithelium and determined the extent to which they are present 3 and 6 weeks after the infections begin. We also determined the magnitude of the potentiation of neurogenic inflammation at these times, whether the potentiation can be reversed by glucocorticoids, and whether a proliferation of blood vessels contributes to the abnormally large amount of plasma extravasation associated with this potentiation. To this end, we studied Long-Evans rats that acquired these viral and mycoplasmal infections from other rats. We found that the tracheal epithelium of the infected rats had ten times as many Alcian blue-PAS positive mucous cells as did that of pathogen-free rats; but it contained none of the serous cells typical of pathogen-free rats, so the total number of secretory cells was not increased. In addition, the epithelium of the infected rats had three times the number of ciliated cells and had only a third of the number of globule leukocytes. In response to an injection of capsaicin (150 μg/kg i.v.), the tracheas of the infected rats developed an abnormally large amount of extravasation of two tracers Evans blue dye and Monastral blue pigment, and had an abnormally large number of Monastral blue-labeled venules, particularly in regions of mucosa overlying the cartilaginous rings. This abnormally large amount of extravasation was blocked by dexamethasone (1 mg/day i.p. for 5 days). We conclude that M. pulmonis infections, exacerbated at the outset by viral infections, result within three weeks in the transformation of epithelial serous cells into mucous cells, the proliferation of ciliated cells, and the depletion of globule leukocytes. They also cause a proliferation of mediator-sensitive blood vessels in the airway mucosa, which is likely to contribute to the potentiation of neurogenic inflammation that accompanies these infections.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Why does the coronavirus spread so easily between people?

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

2fn25l6m

Sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome reveals features important for vaccine design As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is rapidly progressing, the need for the development of an effective vaccine is critical. A promising approach for vaccine development is to generate, through codon pair deoptimization, an attenuated virus. This approach carries the advantage that it only requires limited knowledge specific to the virus in question, other than its genome sequence. Therefore, it is well suited for emerging viruses for which we may not have extensive data. We performed comprehensive in silico analyses of several features of SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence (e.g., codon usage, codon pair usage, dinucleotide/junction dinucleotide usage, RNA structure around the frameshift region) in comparison with other members of the coronaviridae family of viruses, the overall human genome, and the transcriptome of specific human tissues such as lung, which are primarily targeted by the virus. Our analysis identified the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins as promising targets for deoptimization and suggests a roadmap for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development, which can be generalizable to other viruses.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States Abstract: The 2019-nCoV outbreak has raised concern of global spread. While person-to-person transmission within the Wuhan district has led to a large outbreak, the transmission potential outside of the region remains unclear. Here we present a simple approach for determining whether the upper limit of the confidence interval for the reproduction number exceeds one for transmission in the United States, which would allow endemic transmission. As of February 7, 2020, the number of cases in the United states support subcritical transmission, rather than ongoing transmission. However, this conclusion can change if pre-symptomatic cases resulting from human-to-human transmission have not yet been identified.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Coronavirus Endoribonuclease Activity in Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Suppresses Type I and Type III Interferon Responses Identifying viral antagonists of innate immunity and determining if they contribute to pathogenesis are critical for developing effective strategies to control emerging viruses. Previously, we reported that an endoribonuclease (EndoU) encoded by murine coronavirus plays a pivotal role in evasion of host innate immune defenses in macrophages. Here, we asked if the EndoU activity of porcine epidemic diarrhea coronavirus (PEDV), which causes acute diarrhea in swine, plays a role in antagonizing the innate response in porcine epithelial cells and macrophages, the sites of viral replication. We constructed an infectious clone of PEDV-Colorado strain (icPEDV-wt) and an EndoU-mutant PEDV (icPEDV-EnUmt) by changing the codon for a catalytic histidine residue of EndoU to alanine (His226Ala). We found that both icPEDV-wt and icPEDV-EnUmt propagated efficiently in interferon (IFN)-deficient Vero cells. In contrast, the propagation of icPEDV-EnUmt was impaired in porcine epithelial cells (LLC-PK1), where we detected an early and robust transcriptional activation of type I and type III IFNs. Infection of piglets with the parental Colorado strain, icPEDV-wt, or icPEDV-EnUmt revealed that all viruses replicated in the gut and induced diarrhea; however, there was reduced viral shedding and mortality in the icPEDV-EnUmt-infected animals. These results demonstrate that EndoU activity is not required for PEDV replication in immortalized, IFN-deficient Vero cells, but is important for suppressing the IFN response in epithelial cells and macrophages, which facilitates replication, shedding, and pathogenesis in vivo. We conclude that PEDV EndoU activity is a key virulence factor that suppresses both type I and type III IFN responses. IMPORTANCE Coronaviruses (CoVs) can emerge from an animal reservoir into a naive host species to cause pandemic respiratory or gastrointestinal diseases with significant mortality in humans or domestic animals. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), an alphacoronavirus (alpha-CoV), infects gut epithelial cells and macrophages, inducing diarrhea and resulting in high mortality in piglets. How PEDV suppresses the innate immune response was unknown. We found that mutating a viral endoribonuclease, EndoU, results in a virus that activates both the type I interferon response and the type III interferon response in macrophages and epithelial cells. This activation of interferon resulted in limited viral replication in epithelial cell cultures and was associated with reduced virus shedding and mortality in piglets. This study reveals a role for EndoU activity as a virulence factor in PEDV infection and provides an approach for generating live-attenuated vaccine candidates for emerging coronaviruses.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Coronavirus Perceptions And Economic Anxiety We provide one of the first systematic assessments of the development and determinants of economic anxiety at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Using a global dataset on internet searches and two representative surveys from the US, we document a substantial increase in economic anxiety during and after the arrival of the coronavirus. We also document a large dispersion in beliefs about the pandemic risk factors of the coronavirus, and demonstrate that these beliefs causally affect individuals' economic anxieties. Finally, we show that individuals' mental models of infectious disease spread understate non-linear growth and shape the extent of economic anxiety.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Review on Machine and Deep Learning Models for the Detection and Prediction of Coronavirus The novel Coronavirus disease has increased rapidly in the Wuhan city of China in December 2019. This fatal virus has spread across the whole world like a fire in different stages and affecting millions of population and thousands of deaths worldwide. Therefore, it is essential to classify the infected people, so that they can take the precaution in the earlier stages. Also, due to the increasing cases spread of Coronavirus, there are only limited numbers of polymerase change reaction kits available in the hospitals for testing Coronavirus patients. That why it is extremely important to develop artificial intelligence-based automatic diagnostic tools to classify the Coronavirus outbreak. The objective of this paper is to know the novel disease epidemiology, major prevention from spreading of Coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and to assess the machine and deep learning-based architectures performance that is proposed in the present year for classification of Coronavirus images such as, X-Ray and computed tomography. Specifically, advanced deep learning-based algorithms known as the Convolutional neural network, which plays a great effect on extracting highly essential features, mostly in terms of medical images. This technique, with using CT and X-Ray image scans, has been adopted in most of the recently published articles on the Coronavirus with remarkable results. Furthermore, according to this paper, this can be noted and said that deep learning technology has potential clinical applications.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Severe weather warnings predict fracture epidemics Abstract Winter epidemics of fractures have been described that greatly exceed normal seasonal variations and overwhelm resources. We investigated the relationship between severe weather warnings, the frequency of fractures, and fracture related workload. There was a significant increase in fractures with cold and inclement weather, mostly low-energy fractures treated with day-case surgery or in fracture clinics. The number of patients treated as inpatients for fractures did not increase. Hip fractures were not associated with weather. Severe weather warnings for icy roads were predictive of fracture epidemics (p <0.01) with an associated 40% (95% confidence limits 20–52%) increase in fractures. Meteorological Office issued severe weather warnings can provide a trigger to plan for an increased workload of low-energy fractures, with opportunities for anticipatory public health measures.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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SARS-CoV-2 mortality in blacks and temperature-sensitivity to an angiotensin-2 receptor blocker Tropical climates provoke adaptations in skin pigmentation and in mechanisms controlling the volume, salt-content and pressure of body fluids. For many whose distant ancestors moved to temperate climes, these adaptations proved harmful: pigmentation decreased by natural selection and susceptibility to hypertension emerged. Now an added risk is lung inflammation from coronavirus that may be furthered by innate immune differences. Hypertension and coronavirus have in common angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which decreases blood pressure and mediates virus entry. In keeping with less detailed studies, a long-term case-report shows that decreased blood pressure induced by blocking a primary angiotensin receptor is supplemented, above critical blocker dosage, by a further temperature-dependent fall, likely mediated by ACE2 and secondary angiotensin receptors. Temperature-dependence suggests a linkage with tropical heritage and an influence of blockers on the progress of coronavirus infections. Positive therapeutic results should result from negation of host pro-inflammatory effects mediated by the primary angiotensin receptor and concomitant promotion of countervailing anti-inflammatory effects mediated by ACE2 through other receptors. These effects may involve components of the lectin complement pathway. Black vulnerability, more likely based on physiological than on socioeconomic differences, provides an important clue that may guide treatments.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Preliminary Identification of Potential Vaccine Targets for the COVID-19 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Based on SARS-CoV Immunological Studies The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There is an imminent need to better understand this new virus and to develop ways to control its spread. In this study, we sought to gain insights for vaccine design against SARS-CoV-2 by considering the high genetic similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which caused the outbreak in 2003, and leveraging existing immunological studies of SARS-CoV. By screening the experimentally-determined SARS-CoV-derived B cell and T cell epitopes in the immunogenic structural proteins of SARS-CoV, we identified a set of B cell and T cell epitopes derived from the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins that map identically to SARS-CoV-2 proteins. As no mutation has been observed in these identified epitopes among the 120 available SARS-CoV-2 sequences (as of 21 February 2020), immune targeting of these epitopes may potentially offer protection against this novel virus. For the T cell epitopes, we performed a population coverage analysis of the associated MHC alleles and proposed a set of epitopes that is estimated to provide broad coverage globally, as well as in China. Our findings provide a screened set of epitopes that can help guide experimental efforts towards the development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Design of Wide-Spectrum Inhibitors Targeting Coronavirus Main Proteases The genus Coronavirus contains about 25 species of coronaviruses (CoVs), which are important pathogens causing highly prevalent diseases and often severe or fatal in humans and animals. No licensed specific drugs are available to prevent their infection. Different host receptors for cellular entry, poorly conserved structural proteins (antigens), and the high mutation and recombination rates of CoVs pose a significant problem in the development of wide-spectrum anti-CoV drugs and vaccines. CoV main proteases (M(pro)s), which are key enzymes in viral gene expression and replication, were revealed to share a highly conservative substrate-recognition pocket by comparison of four crystal structures and a homology model representing all three genetic clusters of the genus Coronavirus. This conclusion was further supported by enzyme activity assays. Mechanism-based irreversible inhibitors were designed, based on this conserved structural region, and a uniform inhibition mechanism was elucidated from the structures of M(pro)-inhibitor complexes from severe acute respiratory syndrome-CoV and porcine transmissible gastroenteritis virus. A structure-assisted optimization program has yielded compounds with fast in vitro inactivation of multiple CoV M(pro)s, potent antiviral activity, and extremely low cellular toxicity in cell-based assays. Further modification could rapidly lead to the discovery of a single agent with clinical potential against existing and possible future emerging CoV-related diseases.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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SARS-CoV-2 is sensitive to type I interferon pretreatment. SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus (CoV), has recently emerged causing an ongoing outbreak of viral pneumonia around the world. While genetically distinct from the original SARS-CoV, both group 2B CoVs share similar genome organization and origins to coronaviruses harbored in bats. Importantly, initial guidance has used insights from SARS-CoV infection to inform treatment and public health strategies. In this report, we evaluate type-I Interferon (IFN-I) sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the original SARS-CoV. Our results indicate that while SARS-CoV-2 maintains similar viral replication kinetics to SARS-CoV in Vero cell, the novel CoV is much more sensitive to IFN-I pretreatment. Examining transcriptional factor activation and interferon stimulated gene (ISG) induction, SARS-CoV-2 in the context of type I IFN induces phosphorylation of STAT1 and increased ISG proteins. In contrast, the original SARS-CoV has no evidence for STAT1 phosphorylation or ISG protein increases even in the presence of type I IFN pretreatment. Next, we examined IFN competent Calu3 2B4 cells finding SARS-CoV-2 had reduced viral replication relative to SARS-CoV and induced STAT1 phosphorylation late during infection. Finally, we examined homology between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in viral proteins shown to be interferon antagonist. The absence of open reading frame (ORF) 3b and significant changes to ORF6 suggest the two key IFN antagonists may not maintain equivalent function in SARS-CoV-2. Together, the results identify key differences in susceptibility to the IFN-I response between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. that could help inform disease progression, treatment options, and animal model development.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

2wshgzjk

Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with 2019-nCoV As the number of novel coronavirus cases grows both inside and outside of China, public health authorities require evidence on the effectiveness of control measures such as thermal screening of arrivals at airports. We evaluated the effectiveness of exit and entry screening for 2019-nCoV infection. In our baseline scenario, we estimated that 46.5% (95%CI: 35.9 to 57.7) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on the incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and the proportion of cases which are asymptomatic. Airport screening is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers to avoid entry of infected travellers. We developed an online tool so that results can be updated as new information becomes available.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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COVID-19 lockdowns cause global air pollution declines with implications for public health risk The lockdown response to COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented reduction in global economic activity. We test the hypothesis that this has reduced tropospheric and ground-level air pollution concentrations using satellite data and a network of >10,000 air quality stations. After accounting for the effects of meteorological variability, we find remarkable declines in ground-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2: -29 % with 95% confidence interval -44% to -13%), ozone (O3: -11%; -20% to -2%) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5: -9%; -28% to 10%) during the first two weeks of lockdown (n = 27 countries). These results are largely mirrored by satellite measures of the troposphere although long-distance transport of PM2.5 resulted in more heterogeneous changes relative to NO2. Pollutant anomalies were related to short-term health outcomes using empirical exposure-response functions. We estimate that there was a net total of 7400 (340 to 14600) premature deaths and 6600 (4900 to 7900) pediatric asthma cases avoided during two weeks post-lockdown. In China and India alone, the PM2.5-related avoided premature mortality was 1400 (1100 to 1700) and 5300 (1000 to 11700), respectively. Assuming that the lockdown-induced deviations in pollutant concentrations are maintained for the duration of 2020, we estimate 0.78 (0.09 to 1.5) million premature deaths and 1.6 (0.8 to 2) million pediatric asthma cases could be avoided globally. While the state of global lockdown is not sustainable, these findings illustrate the potential health benefits gained from reducing 'business as usual' air pollutant emissions from economic activities.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Mitigating the air pollution effect? The remarkable decline in the pollution-mortality relationship in Hong Kong Abstract Using transboundary pollution from mainland China as an instrument, we show that air pollution leads to higher cardio-respiratory mortality in Hong Kong. However, the air pollution effect has dramatically decreased over the past two decades: before 2003, a 10-unit increase in the Air Pollution Index could lead to a 3.1% increase in monthly cardio-respiratory mortality, but this effect has declined to 0.5% using recent data and is no longer statistically significant. Exploratory analyses suggest that a well-functioning medical system and immediate access to emergency services can help mitigate the contemporaneous effects of pollution on mortality.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Differential Diagnosis of Common Acute Toxicologic Versus Nontoxicologic Illness This table outlines common toxicologic versus nontoxicologic rule outs based on clinical abnormalities seen in an acutely ill animal. The purpose is to provide an initial guideline for considering toxicologic versus nontoxicologic rule outs when a patient is presented to a practicing veterinarian. Major clinical abnormalities followed by common toxicologic rule outs and non-toxicologic rule outs have been listed so that practicing veterinarians can narrow down an etiology quickly. Based on history, physical examination findings, and blood work changes, once a reasonable etiology has been narrowed down or established, the reader is encouraged to review a more detailed discussion on management of the particular poisoning or disease listed in this or other references.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model BACKGROUND: Similar to outbreaks of many other infectious diseases, success in controlling the novel 2019 coronavirus infection requires a timely and accurate monitoring of the epidemic, particularly during its early period with rather limited data while the need for information increases explosively. METHODS: In this study, we used a second derivative model to characterize the coronavirus epidemic in China with cumulatively diagnosed cases during the first 2 months. The analysis was further enhanced by an exponential model with a close-population assumption. This model was built with the data and used to assess the detection rate during the study period, considering the differences between the true infections, detectable and detected cases. RESULTS: Results from the second derivative modeling suggest the coronavirus epidemic as nonlinear and chaotic in nature. Although it emerged gradually, the epidemic was highly responsive to massive interventions initiated on January 21, 2020, as indicated by results from both second derivative and exponential modeling analyses. The epidemic started to decelerate immediately after the massive actions. The results derived from our analysis signaled the decline of the epidemic 14 days before it eventually occurred on February 4, 2020. Study findings further signaled an accelerated decline in the epidemic starting in 14 days on February 18, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The coronavirus epidemic appeared to be nonlinear and chaotic, and was responsive to effective interventions. The methods used in this study can be applied in surveillance to inform and encourage the general public, public health professionals, clinicians and decision-makers to take coordinative and collaborative efforts to control the epidemic.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Cold Exposure-Induced Up-Regulation of Hsp70 Positively Regulates PEDV mRNA Synthesis and Protein Expression In Vitro Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is a highly contagious, intestinal infectious disease caused by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). PEDV as an emerging and re-emerging epizootic virus of swine causes substantial economic losses to the pig industry in China and other countries. In China, the occurrence of PED shows significant seasonal variations, usually outbreak during the winter season. The epidemic characteristics of PED may be highly correlated with the changes of ambient temperature. However, molecular mechanism on the seasonal occurrence of PED still remains unclear. It has been widely observed that low ambient temperature up-regulates the expression of host heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70). Here, we showed that nucleotide and protein levels of Hsp70 were up-regulated in the intestinal of cold exposed pig and cold exposed Vero E6 cells. We found that overexpression of Hsp70 could increase PEDV mRNA synthesis and protein expression in Vero E6 and IPEC-J2 cells, while the siRNAs mediated knockdown of Hsp70 and VER155008 mediated inhibition of Hsp70 resulted in inhibition of viral mRNA synthesis and protein expression in Vero E6 cells. These data suggested that Hsp70 positively regulated PEDV mRNA synthesis and protein expression, which being helpful for understanding the seasonality of PED epidemics and development of novel antiviral therapies in the future.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Post-translational modifications of coronavirus proteins: roles and function Post-translational modifications (PTMs) refer to the covalent modifications of polypeptides after they are synthesized, adding temporal and spatial regulation to modulate protein functions. Being obligate intracellular parasites, viruses rely on the protein synthesis machinery of host cells to support replication, and not surprisingly, many viral proteins are subjected to PTMs. Coronavirus (CoV) is a group of enveloped RNA viruses causing diseases in both human and animals. Many CoV proteins are modified by PTMs, including glycosylation and palmitoylation of the spike and envelope protein, N- or O-linked glycosylation of the membrane protein, phosphorylation and ADP-ribosylation of the nucleocapsid protein, and other PTMs on nonstructural and accessory proteins. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on PTMs of CoV proteins, with an emphasis on their impact on viral replication and pathogenesis. The ability of some CoV proteins to interfere with PTMs of host proteins will also be discussed.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Participants – Multilateral Organizations and International Financial Institutions Multilateral organizations are composed of sovereign governments. They may be regional, organized around a common issue or function, or global. International financial institutions (IFIs) are international banks composed of sovereign member states that use public money from the Member States to provide technical and financial support for developing countries. The United Nations is the organization most involved in the mitigation of, preparedness for, response to, and recovery from disasters around the world. It is considered the best equipped to do so because of its strong relationships with most countries, especially the developing countries where assistance is most needed. When disasters strike, the UN is one of the first organizations to mobilize, and it remains in the affected countries during the recovery period for many years after. The Consolidated Appeal Process is one way the UN garners international support for relief and reconstruction. In many regions, governments have formed smaller international organizations, many of which address risk, as well. The IFIs provide nations with low capital reserves funding in the aftermath of disasters recovery reconstruction. The World Bank is regarded as one of the largest sources of development assistance.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study BACKGROUND: A range of public health measures have been implemented to suppress local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioural changes of the public on the incidence of COVID-19, as well as on influenza virus infections, which might share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19. METHODS: We analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (R(t)) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time. Attitudes towards COVID-19 and changes in population behaviours were reviewed through three telephone surveys done on Jan 20–23, Feb 11–14, and March 10–13, 2020. FINDINGS: COVID-19 transmissibility measured by R(t) has remained at approximately 1 for 8 weeks in Hong Kong. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% CI 34–53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, from an estimated R(t) of 1·28 (95% CI 1·26–1·30) before the start of the school closures to 0·72 (0·70–0·74) during the closure weeks. Similarly, a 33% (24–43%) reduction in transmissibility was seen based on paediatric hospitalisation rates, from an R(t) of 1·10 (1·06–1·12) before the start of the school closures to 0·73 (0·68–0·77) after school closures. Among respondents to the surveys, 74·5%, 97·5%, and 98·8% reported wearing masks when going out, and 61·3%, 90·2%, and 85·1% reported avoiding crowded places in surveys 1 (n=1008), 2 (n=1000), and 3 (n=1005), respectively. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions (including border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, distancing, and changes in population behaviour) were associated with reduced transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and are also likely to have substantially reduced influenza transmission in early February, 2020. FUNDING: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Systematic Identification of Novel, Essential Host Genes Affecting Bromovirus RNA Replication Positive-strand RNA virus replication involves viral proteins and cellular proteins at nearly every replication step. Brome mosaic virus (BMV) is a well-established model for dissecting virus-host interactions and is one of very few viruses whose RNA replication, gene expression and encapsidation have been reproduced in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Previously, our laboratory identified ∼100 non-essential host genes whose loss inhibited or enhanced BMV replication at least 3-fold. However, our isolation of additional BMV-modulating host genes by classical genetics and other results underscore that genes essential for cell growth also contribute to BMV RNA replication at a frequency that may be greater than that of non-essential genes. To systematically identify novel, essential host genes affecting BMV RNA replication, we tested a collection of ∼900 yeast strains, each with a single essential gene promoter replaced by a doxycycline-repressible promoter, allowing repression of gene expression by adding doxycycline to the growth medium. Using this strain array of ∼81% of essential yeast genes, we identified 24 essential host genes whose depleted expression reproducibly inhibited or enhanced BMV RNA replication. Relevant host genes are involved in ribosome biosynthesis, cell cycle regulation and protein homeostasis, among other cellular processes. BMV 2a(Pol) levels were significantly increased in strains depleted for a heat shock protein (HSF1) or proteasome components (PRE1 and RPT6), suggesting these genes may affect BMV RNA replication by directly or indirectly modulating 2a(Pol) localization, post-translational modification or interacting partners. Investigating the diverse functions of these newly identified essential host genes should advance our understanding of BMV-host interactions and normal cellular pathways, and suggest new modes of virus control.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Short Term Effects of Weather on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks leading to clinical and fatal complications have increased since late 1990s; especially in the Asia Pacific Region. Outbreaks of HFMD peaks in the warmer season of the year, but the underlying factors for this annual pattern and the reasons to the recent upsurge trend have not yet been established. This study analyzed the effect of short-term changes in weather on the incidence of HFMD in Singapore. METHODS: The relative risks between weekly HFMD cases and temperature and rainfall were estimated for the period 2001–2008 using time series Poisson regression models allowing for over-dispersion. Smoothing was used to allow non-linear relationship between weather and weekly HFMD cases, and to adjust for seasonality and long-term time trend. Additionally, autocorrelation was controlled and weather was allowed to have a lagged effect on HFMD incidence up to 2 weeks. RESULTS: Weekly temperature and rainfall showed statistically significant association with HFMD incidence at time lag of 1–2 weeks. Every 1°C increases in maximum temperature above 32°C elevated the risk of HFMD incidence by 36% (95% CI = 1.341–1.389). Simultaneously, one mm increase of weekly cumulative rainfall below 75 mm increased the risk of HFMD by 0.3% (CI = 1.002–1.003). While above 75 mm the effect was opposite and each mm increases of rainfall decreased the incidence by 0.5% (CI = 0.995–0.996). We also found that a difference between minimum and maximum temperature greater than 7°C elevated the risk of HFMD by 41% (CI = 1.388–1.439). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest a strong association between HFMD and weather. However, the exact reason for the association is yet to be studied. Information on maximum temperature above 32°C and moderate rainfall precede HFMD incidence could help to control and curb the up-surging trend of HFMD.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Understanding Human Coronavirus HCoV-NL63 Even though coronavirus infection of humans is not normally associated with severe diseases, the identification of the coronavirus responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome showed that highly pathogenic coronaviruses can enter the human population. Shortly thereafter, in Holland in 2004, another novel human coronavirus (HCoV-NL63) was isolated from a seven-month old infant suffering from respiratory symptoms. This virus has subsequently been identified in various countries, indicating a worldwide distribution. HCoV-NL63 has been shown to infect mainly children and the immunocommpromised, who presented with either mild upper respiratory symptoms (cough, fever and rhinorrhoea) or more serious lower respiratory tract involvement such as bronchiolitis and croup, which was observed mainly in younger children. In fact, HCoV-NL63 is the aetiological agent for up to 10% of all respiratory diseases. This review summarizes recent findings of human coronavirus HCoV-NL63 infections, including isolation and identification, phylogeny and taxonomy, genome structure and transcriptional regulation, transmission and pathogenesis, and detection and diagnosis.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Frailty and Seasonality

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Single organelle analysis to characterize mitochondrial function and crosstalk during viral infection Mitochondria are key for cellular metabolism and signalling processes during viral infection. We report a methodology to analyse mitochondrial properties at the single-organelle level during viral infection using a recombinant adenovirus coding for a mitochondrial tracer protein for tagging and detection by multispectral flow cytometry. Resolution at the level of tagged individual mitochondria revealed changes in mitochondrial size, membrane potential and displayed a fragile phenotype during viral infection of cells. Thus, single-organelle and multi-parameter resolution allows to explore altered energy metabolism and antiviral defence by tagged mitochondria selectively in virus-infected cells and will be instrumental to identify viral immune escape and to develop and monitor novel mitochondrial-targeted therapies.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015 BACKGROUND: In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea. METHODS: The basic reproduction number of an epidemic is defined as the average number of secondary cases that an infected subject produces over its infectious period in a susceptible and uninfected population. To estimate the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV, we employ data from the 2015 South Korea MERS outbreak and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, a mathematical model that uses a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). RESULTS: We fit the model to the epidemic data of the South Korea outbreak minimizing the sum of the squared errors to identify model parameters. Also we derive the basic reproductive number as the terms of the parameters of the SIR model. Then we determine the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV in South Korea in 2015 as 8.0977. It is worth comparing with the basic reproductive number of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, which had values of 1.5–2.5. CONCLUSIONS: There was no intervention to control the infection in the early phase of the outbreak, thus the data used here provide the best conditions to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of MERS, such as the basic reproduction number. An evaluation of basic reproduction number using epidemic data could be problematic if there are stochastic fluctuations in the early phase of the outbreak, or if the report is not accurate and there is bias in the data. Such problems are not relevant to this study because the data used here were precisely reported and verified by Korea Hospital Association.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 main protease residue interaction networks change when bound to inhibitor N3 COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 has many similarities with SARS-CoV. Both viruses rely on a protease called the main protease, or M(pro), for replication. Therefore, inhibiting M(pro) may be a successful strategy for treating COVID-19. Structures are available in the Protein Data Bank of the main proteases of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 with and without inhibitor N3. Comparing these structures revealed residue interaction network changes associated with N3 inhibition. Comparing network clustering with and without inhibitor N3 identified the formation of a cluster of residues 17, 18, 30-33, 70, 95, 98, 103, 117, 122, and 177 as a network change in both viral proteases when bound to inhibitor N3. Betweenness and stress centrality differences as well as differences in bond energies and relative B-factors when comparing free M(pro) to inhibitor-bound M(pro) identified residues 131, 175, 182, and 185 as possibly conformationally relevant when bound to the inhibitor N3. Taken together, these results provide insight into conformational changes of betacoronavirus M(pro)s when bound to an inhibitor.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Building resilience against biological hazards and pandemics: COVID-19 and its implications for the Sendai Framework Abstract 2020 has become the year of coping with COVID-19. This year was to be the “super year” for sustainability, a year of strengthening global actions to accelerate the transformations required for achieving the 2030 agenda. We argue that 2020 can and must be a year of both. Thus we call for more utilisation of the health-emergency disaster risk management (Health-EDRM) framework to complement current responses to COVID-19 and the patent risk of similar phenomena in the future. To make our case, we examine current responses to COVID-19 and their implications for the SFDRR. We argue that current mechanisms and strategies for disaster resilience, as outlined in the SFDRR, can enhance responses to epidemics or global pandemics such as COVID-19. In this regard, we make several general and DRR-specific recommendations. These recommendations concern knowledge and science provision in understanding disaster and health-related emergency risks, the extension of disaster risk governance to manage both disaster risks and potential health-emergencies, particularly for humanitarian coordination aspects; and the strengthening of community-level preparedness and response.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Association of COVID-19 Infections in San Francisco in Early March 2020 with Travel to New York and Europe Real-time dissemination of epidemiological survey data from positive COVID-19 cases is critical to support efforts to contain or reduce spread of viral infection in the community. Here we detected a significant association between domestic travel or travel to Europe and the identification of new cases in San Francisco, California, USA. These findings suggest that domestic and European travelers may need to be prioritized for evaluation of acute infection from COVID-19 in the setting of limited testing capacity.

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

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Retinal pathology in multiple sclerosis: insight into the mechanisms of neuronal pathology

how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather