Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_china_taiwan

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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spillover effect of chinas economic slowdown, and global economic fragmentations and supply chain restructuring, could all affect trade, economic, and financial development of the world
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
157
though the selective credit controls had proved effective to an extent, they could only treat the symptoms but not the disease; the housing price malady cannot be cured without a targeted therapy against loose monetary policy
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
269
housing transactions in the six special municipalities increased moderately in the first eight months compared to the same period last year
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
336
the annual cpi growth rate stood at 2.35 in november, while the core cpi annual growth rate, excluding fruit, vegetables, and energy items, remained high at 2.86
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
586
in particular, the nt dollar would continue to face upside pressures and a stronger ntd would be detrimental to traditional industries
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
908
do the same factors that have held inflation steady or down in the past three decades remain in sight?
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
14
another board director stated that there are three types of interest rate decisions, a rate cut, a rate hold, and a rate hike
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,019
582
one board director stated that maintaining the current policy rate levels would be appropriate, and that policy rate adjustments generally serve two purposes
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
293
projections for taiwans gdp growth rate in 2020 by major forecasting institutions fell between -1.36 and 1.83, and all of them expected next years growth to be faster, with projections ranging from 1.40 to 3.92
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
34
taiwans high-tech manufacturers increased capital expenditure, leading to an expansion in capital equipment imports
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
706
as the m2 annual growth rate had continued to overshoot the reference range this year so far, it would be important to examine if this also reflected significant growth in bank loans, especially real estate loans, and to find out if the banks selective credit controls helped restrain the expansion of banks real estate lending
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
326
going forward, the bank will continuously monitor the developments in housing credit and the real estate market and the implementation results of the selective credit control measures, and will make adjustments as needed in order to promote financial stability and sound banking operations
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
886
one board director pointed out that the bank, in view of weak momentum for domestic economic growth, downgraded its forecast for taiwans 2023 gdp growth rate to below 2 with a possibility of turning lower
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
682
meanwhile, the fed carried on with rate hikes, there remained international economic uncertainties, and some central banks made prudent decisions to hold rates unchanged, including taiwans major trading partners such as china, japan, and the euro area, and a primary export rival south korea
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
931
as major economies such as the us and europe still recorded high inflation and many central banks significantly tightened monetary policy, global economic growth is expected to slow further in 2023, with the us and europe likely entering mild recessions
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
181
looking ahead, the global economy still faces downside risks, including 1 long-term scars to potential output of major economies as capital stock and labor force are constrained by the pandemic; 2 escalation in us-china trade tensions; 3 a worsening in financial fragilities as the necessary policy responses to the pandemic, such as large fiscal stimulus and ultra-loose monetary policy, aggravate the debt burdens of governments and firms
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
80
second, the seemingly robust export expansion this year was partially attributable to some sectors emerging from the previous years contraction thanks to a lower base effect
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
497
inflation was expected to reach significantly higher levels compared to the previous year
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
63
one board director noted that although recent declines in animal feed costs took pork prices lower, price stickiness would prevent related food-away-from-home prices from decreasing correspondingly
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
79
from the beginning of 2022, despite omicron-driven disruptions to the domestic economy, consumers largely remained willing to spend, and the retail and foodbeverage sectors registered growing sales
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
406
the global economic outlook remains clouded by pandemic uncertainties, including recurring virus outbreaks, discovery of new virus variants, and uneven vaccination progress across regions
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
786
the annual growth rate edged up in august, though, buoyed by greater demand of government enterprises for funding
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
311
one supervisor pointed out that some of the data on consumer finances might not be available owing to trade secret protection
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
986
the special accommodation facilitys interest rate on re-accommodations to banks maintained at the current level of 0.1 until june 30, 2022 to ensure funding ease for smes after the policy rate hike under the banks special accommodation facility to support bank credit to small and medium-sized enterprises smes launched in april 2020, financial institutions have approved preferential loans to more than 300 thousand borrowers with the total amount exceeding nt500 billion
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
821
given the pandemics economic shock and rising uncertainties over the pandemic and economic and trade policies, international forecasters projected that it would be difficult for world trade volume to stage a strong recovery next year
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
33
nevertheless, uncertainties still abounded for price trends and economic activity; in the future, the board could still consider adjusting the policy rates if deemed necessary
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
296
at the meeting today, the board decided to raise the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations by 0.125 percentage points each to 1.875, 2.25, and 4.125, respectively, effective march 24, 2023
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
62
one board director pointed out that structural factors holding down global inflation have weakened somewhat
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
211
it is also suggested that the bank communicate to the public that it pays great attention to not only short-term volatility but also longer-term economic growth
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
339
meanwhile, international institutions expected that global inflation and inflation in most economies would be weaker than last year, citing a sluggish global economic prospect and a projected downtrend in international oil prices
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
542
notwithstanding the gradual slowdown in the inflation rate, persistent inflation remained a concern, and it is crucial to continue monitoring how long the cpi annual growth rate would come down below 2 since this would affect the anchoring of inflation expectations; it is also important for monetary policy actions to be taken when necessary
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
56
developments since the previous board meeting in june 2017 showed that the global recovery continued at a solid pace
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
396
however, the semiconductor industry is known to be cyclical, and the industrys bust cycle would bode ill for private investment growth
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
768
in the financial markets, us and german government bonds yield curves inverted owing to recent market expectations about the fed and the ecb keeping policy rates at high levels for a considerable time, along with concerns that the cumulative effects of monetary tightening could suppress future economic growth
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
628
one other board director stated that as major economies implemented rate reductions taiwan should not lag behind too much, citing also the remaining room for lower rates as well as the announcement effect of the banks policy stance
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
764
the bank will also stay attentive to incoming information regarding monetary policy paths of major central banks, risks from chinas economic downturn, international raw material prices, geopolitical risks, extreme weather, etc
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
545
while headline inflation trended downwards, key staple goods and core inflation remained elevated, requiring close monitoring of inflation expectations
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
340
meanwhile, demand for funds driven by the economic recovery is expected to support continued growth in bank loans and investments
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
742
as a small open economy, taiwan could be impacted by spillover effects via the following three channels the real economy with global final demand weakening, taiwans exports have seen slower growth in recent months and private investment has turned conservative
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
30
international institutions forecasted that, for this year, oil prices would trend slightly lower than last year and drop further next year
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
657
in light of anticipated slowing in global economic and trade activity this year and a higher base last year, export growth may decelerate in 2019
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
241
meanwhile, the long-term government bond yields in major economies declined, the us dollar index fell from its peak levels, and major currencies broadly appreciated against the us dollar
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
324
however, may data showed a 7.7 decline year-on-year
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
725
overall, sustained growth in exports and private investment and reinvigorating private consumption were likely to help uphold stable economic growth momentum for the year despite a higher base effect and potential impact from the ukraine war
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
449
prolonged inflation could raise inflation expectations, necessitating proactive measures
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
407
for the first eleven months of the year, the average annual growth rates of the cpi and the core cpi were 1.91 and 1.28, respectively
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
53
most countries, including the u.s. and japan, use the rental equivalence approach; their rent is generally less susceptible to housing price changes, showing a more stable trend with little deviation from the cpi
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
200
for instance, exports of non-ai servers and mobile phones were tepid
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
97
discussion on domestic and international economic and financial conditions in respect of the external environment, one board director noted that since the end of february international forecasting institutions and investment banks have actually adjusted their views on the global economic outlook given the feds rate hike pause and a milder-than-expected slowdown in china thanks to beijings massive stimulus measures
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
150
another board director pointed out that most major economies have kept their policy rates unchanged since april this year in order to buttress the economic recovery
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
194
in terms of external demand, the global economic slowdown and us-china trade friction combined to drag export growth in major asian economies, including taiwan, into negative territory for the jan.-feb. period
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
747
one board director pointed out that, given the scale of taiwans investment in and merchanting trade particularly intermediate goods trade with china over the years since 2000, we are highly integrated into the global value chain
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
310
discussion on the proposition to adjust selective credit control measures several board directors expressed the opinion that by introducing a new 70 cap on the ltv ratio on second housing loans taken out by natural persons for homes in the designated specific areas it would help enhance lending risk management of banks, improve proper allocation of credit resources, achieve a healthy housing market, and promote financial stability
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
7
monetary policy decision the board directors reached a unanimous vote to raise the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations by 25 basis points to 1.375, 1.75, and 3.625, respectively
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
805
regarding money supply, the m2 annual growth rate first rose before declining in the months since february 2024, reflecting a reversal of a net foreign capital inflow into a net outflow
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
390
the banks tightening measures since march amplified the effectiveness of these controls
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
245
however, this outlook could still change depending on prices trends of international commodities and domestic services, as well as weather events
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
18
as the imbalance issue and elevated energy prices expected to continue into the first half of 2022 would likely ease afterwards, international institutions projected a gradual decline of inflation by the end of 2022, with the inflation rate for the year as a whole to register slightly higher than 2021
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
341
meanwhile, real estate lending as a percentage of total bank lending had remained stable
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
286
looking ahead, the global economic and financial outlooks are still shrouded in many uncertainties, such as the duration of policy rates of major economies staying high, the degree of tightening of global financial conditions, the pace of chinas economic recovery, geopolitical risks, and climate change
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
461
for the first eleven months of the year, the annual growth rate of the cpi averaged 2.48 and that of the core cpi averaged 2.60
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
656
looking ahead, given lingering uncertainties over the us trade policies toward major economies such as china, the euro area, and japan, a slowdown in the chinese economy, and a possible extension of the brexit deadline, the global economic and financial outlook remains unclear
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
363
moreover, recurring covid-19 pandemic outbreaks would also add uncertainties to the global economy
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
940
for the first two months of the year, the average bank excess reserves was slightly above nt60 billion
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
649
in addition, data on exports in the year up to may showed that only ai-related ictav exports recorded fast growth whereas the rest product categories posted negative growth
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
15
amid expectations of a global economic recovery and the us governments us1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package, recent inflation expectations in the us have strengthened markedly, driving up long-term government bond yields of major economies, and in turn causing greater volatility in international stock markets
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
342
however, with major central banks such as the us federal reserve fed and the european central bank ecb maintaining high policy rates, the global economy continued to experience tepid growth momentum
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
798
as a result of mild domestic inflation, taiwans real interest rate has returned to positive territory whereas those of many major economies remain negative
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
873
several board directors discussed the developments in the domestic housing market
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
123
although growth in global trade volume could slightly weaken year on year owing to chinas slowdown and growing world trade protectionism, it is projected to advance faster than global output, indicating that world trade is still thriving
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
906
therefore, it would not be appropriate to raise the policy rates in todays meeting
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
722
therefore, the cut should be considered in a broader context, including accounting for the aforementioned interest rate spread and short-term capital issues
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
110
as a result, taiwans headline inflation was mild compared to major economies
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
31
one supervisor stated that according to the dgbas, who is responsible for cpi statistics compilation in taiwan, residential rent has a weight of about 15, while the u.s. assigns a higher weight to rent above 30 and the sample of housing units are for urban u.s. across many countries, data show that housing prices have posted larger increases than rents
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
664
consequently, oil prices moved downwards
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
720
the director expressed support for a rate hold today, but noted that by the time the next quarterly board meeting is convened, the bank should pay special attention to price uptrends and to whether consumer sentiment about prices would step up inflation expectations and create an impact on price stability
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
521
meanwhile, a rate hike increases funding costs, likely hindering corporate investment, exports, and private consumption
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
175
the selective credit controls aimed at mitigating the impact of housing credit on financial stability, rather than targeting housing prices directly
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
392
consumer confidence has been robust, and the domestic economy has continued to grow
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
817
we were told that although the prudential measures did help dampen speculative demand, housing prices were not expected to decline soon given recent waves of capital repatriation and rising construction costs
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
953
while inflation and expectations are not as severe in taiwan, exports have contracted for three consecutive months due to slowing global demand and inventory adjustments
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
328
exports to taiwans major trading partners also registered a broad uptrend
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
126
looking at next year, the base wage increase, the public sector pay raise, and potential price hikes in some sectors to reflect higher personnel and raw material costs could push prices upwards
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
4
grain prices fell since november after russia rejoined the black sea grain export deal
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
889
for the first seven months of the year, the average annual growth rates of the monetary aggregate m2 and of bank loans and investments were 4.72 and 5.91, respectively, indicating that money and credit conditions were sufficient to support domestic economic activity
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
989
manufacturing and non-manufacturing sentiment for the outlook for the next six months, albeit climbing back up, still exhibited caution
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
726
in regard to the size of cuts and future policy space, one board director observed that, limited effects aside, the fact that many central banks cut their policy rates by a large margin the feds 1.5 percentage points in particular gave ground for supporting the proposed 0.25 percentage point reduction
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
414
bank loans and investments rose steadily, with increased demand from both private and public enterprises
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
965
with this potential positive effect on private consumption, next years gdp growth projection is likely to be revised up
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
661
in sum, for the year to date, m2 and bank credit exhibited stable growth, indicating that credit market had sufficient liquidity to support real economic activity
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
9
the bank successively met with a total of 34 domestic banks between august 12 and august 21
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,024
197
one board director said that although the risk was elevated with the us being the source, investors have generally considered us treasuries to bear the lowest risk and thus increased their holdings
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
435
short-term market interest rates climbed higher in september 2023, reflecting end- of-quarter funding needs, the mid-autumn festival long-weekend holiday, provisional payments of profit-seeking enterprise income tax, and continued net selling and outward remittances by foreign institutional investors
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
553
as of the end of june, the number of natural persons with two outstanding housing loans increased by 9.2 compared to march 2016
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
887
recent data pointed to little change in domestic economic and financial conditions; combined with the feds aggressive rate hikes, it would seem more fitting for the bank to raise the policy rates by 25 basis points
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
160
the bank revises its gdp growth forecast downward to 2.21 in 2023 appendix table 1, a pace slower than the 2.45 in 2022
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
637
despite a rate hold, the peoples bank of china cut reserve requirements for all banks to keep credit conditions accommodative
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
950
recently, the us federal reserve fed continued with rate holds while the european central bank just delivered a rate cut
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
799
such high concentration implied that taiwans exports are vulnerable to changes in one or several particular industries or markets
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
88
combined with the growth-dampening effect of a warm winter at the start of the year, food prices are likely to pick up
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
487