Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_china_taiwan

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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999
likewise, downward price stickiness of food away from home also warrants attention as its annual growth rate has stayed elevated, and a faster hike in food-away-from-home prices could make it harder for inflation pressures to ease anytime soon
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
549
regarding private consumption, domestic covid-19 containment policy was eased, government measures to boost consumption were launched, and business in the services industry a domestically oriented sector gradually rebounded
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
476
although the headline and core inflation rates were edging downwards, their average values for the first five months of 2023 were still higher than those of the previous ten years
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
663
one board director commented in regard to the virus impact on prices, stating that despite downside pressures from international oil slumps and soft domestic consumer spending, this pandemic could cause upside pressures
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
820
nevertheless, the impact from rising covid-19 infections at home since mid-may led to an increase in furloughs
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
736
the core cpi excluding fruit, vegetables, and energy recorded an average annual growth rate of 0.24
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
867
one board director pointed out that m2 growth still has influence on prices over the longer term
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
32
in the event of excess volatility and disorderly movements in the nt dollar exchange rate with adverse implications for economic and financial stability, the bank, in line with its statutory mandates, will step in to maintain an orderly market
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
990
domestic growth momentum could weaken slightly; actual output is below potential exports might grow a little more slowly because of a higher base effect, whereas domestic demand will be the key driving force of economic growth given a rebound in private investment and steady private consumption growth
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
676
the annual growth rate of bank loans and investments averaged 5.70 for the same period as bank lending to private enterprises continued increasing
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
234
with regard to real estate lending by banks, the annual growth rate had slowed since the bank implemented selected credit control measures in december 2020
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
833
as imported raw material prices such as crude oil are expected to rise this year and the hikes in minimum wage and public sector employee pay may spur wage increases for workers in the private sector, domestic prices are likely to go up
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
892
our economic growth would pick up in the latter half of this year and continue to expand moderately next year with exports strengthening and domestic demand reinvigorated as the domestic covid-19 situation remains under control
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
472
2 the global economy is shrouded in many uncertainties
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
201
despite recent consecutive negative cpi annual growth rates, a lot more items in the cpi basket of goods and services exhibited price rises than those items with price declines, indicating that there was barely a broad-based price downtrend, nor pronounced signs of deflation
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
745
with regard to money supply, the annual growth rate of m2 fell from 6.80 in february to 6.58 in march; the rate edged up to 6.70 in april as demand deposits increased as a result of the governments universal surplus tax rebates
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
678
one board director showed support for maintaining the current policy rate level, saying that caution is warranted as central banks of taiwans major trading partners, as well as main export competitors including south korea, also held rates unchanged at the juncture where another fed rate hike is expected near the end of the year
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
959
this suggests that domestic financial conditions have been adequately accommodative and there is ample market liquidity to support expansions in corporate and household spending
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
710
among international commodities, sharp declines in crude prices have exerted a downward pressure on global inflation
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
159
since the board last met in march, economies where the coronavirus covid-19 outbreak came under control such as the us and europe have gradually relaxed pandemic restrictions while keeping monetary and fiscal policy support in place, helping to sustain the upturn in global economic and trade activity and bolster the prices of crude oil and other commodities
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
368
regarding labor market conditions in recent months, job gains continued, the unemployment rate came lower than a year ago, and nominal wage increased mildly
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
185
recent data on multiple inflation-related indicators all pointed to a prospective ease in domestic inflationary pressures
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
728
one way to increase banks willingness to lend to the distressed smes would be to raise the guarantee ratio of the small and medium enterprise credit guarantee fund of taiwan smeg, thereby mitigating lending risks and bringing down funding costs; it also seemed appropriate to allow banks to decide the levels of interest rates on such loans
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
735
board members reached a unanimous decision to raise the policy rates by 0.125 percentage points
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
492
another board director pointed out that, although rising stock prices helped to mitigate a tightening in financial conditions, the wealth effect of stock rallies mainly benefited foreign investors, who collectively hold about 40 of the shares listed on taiwans stock markets
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
505
in terms of bank credit, with home mortgages and personal working capital loans continuing to rise year on year since may 2024 and the corporate sector also showing greater funding demand amid steady export growth, the annual growth rate of banks loans and investments rose month by month during the year, averaging 7.73 for the first eight months of 2024
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
168
if the rrrs are to be raised further in the future, m2 growth would likely soften more markedly, which could amplify the effect of denting inflation expectations
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
38
in addition, such a tool would require a massive scale to meaningfully affect housing market trends
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
101
furthermore, several board directors also approved of keeping rates steady, taking into account the trajectory of monetary policies in major economies
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
233
despite a recent downtrend in the 30-day commercial paper rate, future developments in the money markets still require monitoring
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
266
policy proposition to keep the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations unchanged at 1.125, 1.5, and 3.375, respectively; to adjust the banks selective credit control measures
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
470
for the outlook of 2024 as a whole, domestic commodity prices would likely rise mildly given that international oil prices were forecasted by foreign institutions to run higher than 2023
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
688
another board director also stated that the april electricity tariff hike had a limited effect on the domestic inflation rate
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
707
the director pointed out that the dynamics between some of these factors and inflation trends have changed
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
278
another board director noted that current international financial conditions have faced increasingly higher uncertainties than before; a similar situation would lead to different assessments in different times, hence the difference in the size of policy rate adjustments
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
570
on balance, the bank expected real private investment to resume modest positive growth in 2024
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
670
domestic short-term interest rates were broadly stable
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
675
the director therefore supported the proposition to raise the policy rates by 25 basis points
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
144
one board director noted that data on the fundamentals indicated a steady domestic economy but there remained sluggish growth and slackening manufacturing momentum
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
918
nonetheless, when seasonal or irregular factors such as massive inflows or outflows of short-term capital lead to excess volatility and disorderly movements in the nt dollar exchange rate with adverse implications for economic and financial stability, the bank, in line with its statutory mandates, will step in to maintain an orderly market
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
141
assessed against economic conditions, some of those economies enjoy higher gdp growth than taiwan while recording a relatively lower negative real interest rate when compared with taiwan
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
263
one board director pointed out that although the 0.25 percentage point cut was in line with an assessment of the current economic disruption, the bank could face renewed rate cut pressures if the coronavirus outbreak persists
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
128
financially strapped smes could even be forced to close down
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
607
one board director noted that strong housing demand was insufficiently met owing to shortfalls in new projects for sale and new housing starts
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
108
another board director noted that the import price index in us dollar terms dropped in the jan.-aug. period; in nt dollar terms, the index also fell despite ntd weakness vis-à-vis the usd
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
105
with regard to advanced economies, the us expansionary fiscal stimulus is likely to drive up global economic growth, while the outlook for europe and japan seems brighter on the back of growth in global manufacturing sectors and world trade
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
35
overall, in view of bleak prospects for exports and private investment, the bank downgraded the 2023 gdp growth rate forecast to 2.21, lower than the 2022 growth rate of 2.45
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
839
price trends of international commodities and domestic services as well as weather events are among the possible factors affecting taiwans inflation this year
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
537
given that taiwans cpi annual growth rate has come close to or exceeded 2 for four consecutive years, the inflation expectation problem should be heeded
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
495
the director cited recent data as the reasons backing up a rate hold for now first, the headline inflation rate began trending down after a streak of rate hikes and the economy still faced a relatively low probability of recession in the next quarter despite the recent forecast downgrade
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
979
on the other hand, sources of downside pressures included 1 declines in communication devices prices and communications rates; 2 the governments potential reduction of tax rates for commodity tax, customs duty, and business tax, helping to mitigate rising cost pressures for firms
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
271
the cpi annual growth rate of food away from home has gone above 4 every month since february 2022, except for february 2023
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
8
price changes in the cpi components showed upward and downward swings in vegetables and services prices, but overall the cpi annual growth rate gradually came down
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
737
domestic market liquidity was ample and short and long -term market rates fluctuated within a small range in recent months
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
523
domestic inflation has continued to come down gradually in the year so far and is expected to drop to below 2 next year
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
968
in respect of business sentiment, taiwans leading and coincident indicators for business cycles recorded consecutive rises in recent months, against a backdrop of the increasing domestic vaccination rate and gradual easing of containment measures, along with continued export strength
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
279
policy proposition to keep the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations unchanged at 1.125, 1.5, and 3.375, respectively; to adjust the banks selective credit control measures
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
853
one board director stated that, from the perspective of bank lending risk management, it was sensible to introduce the new restriction
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
899
one board director presented two points of views regarding the future development of domestic economic growth
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
282
this is also the case for taiwan
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
758
the director emphasized that m2 is a mid- to long-term indicator and suggested allowing more time before adjusting its reference range
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
375
being a small open economy, taiwan also needs to take into account the effect of major economies monetary policy actions; as major central banks mostly kept an easy monetary policy stance, the conditions were not suitable for the bank to hike rates
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
937
we will also monitor the results of the regulations and measures introduced and make timely adjustments to the relevant measures as warranted
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
92
services exports, however, were constrained by a sharp decline of inbound visitors as some of the pandemic-related border controls remained in place
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
371
in terms of a rate cut, given the historically low levels of the policy rates at present, the room and the effect of a reduction would be very limited
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
190
in terms of the inflation outlook, considering the adverse impact on domestic consumption demand caused by the spread of the virus, combined with plunging international oil and raw material prices, the bank trims the forecasts of the cpi and core cpi annual growth rates for 2020 to 0.59 and 0.55, respectively appendix table 2
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
546
in regard to global commodities, oil prices turned lower from october onwards owing to a softer-than-expected impact of the israel-hamas conflict on crude oil supply, a still tepid chinese economy, and increased us crude oil inventories
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
804
against this background, the board judged that a rate hold would help foster sound economic and financial development on the whole
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
325
for next year, it was expected taiwans exports would be buoyed up by stronger world trade growth than this year, booming demand for emerging technology applications, and consumers sustained appetite for cross-border travel
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
568
therefore, it would be more appropriate to refrain from unwarranted large rate increases
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
404
meanwhile, recent concerns about the future courses of us inflation and the feds monetary policy have rattled international financial markets
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
352
the future path of domestic inflation would be affected by weather events and price trends of international commodities as well as domestic services
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
866
another board director stated that a widened output gap, which indicated deficient growth momentum and subdued inflation, and the likely year-long pause of rate hikes by the fed gave little ground for taiwan to raise policy rates
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
208
since the start of the year, international oil prices recovered ground from previous lows
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
679
nevertheless, effects of monetary tightening by major economies and unrelenting geopolitical conflicts continued to hamper global economic growth momentum
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
145
in addition to this facility, as part of the governments continued efforts to urge state-owned banks to give full support for smes, other central agencies introduced sme aid programs that could also expect keen cooperation from state-owned banks
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
567
in addition, the bank estimated that taiwan would have a slightly negative output gap in 2024
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
793
recent data also suggest that growth in construction loans of all banks have continued to slow
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
6
in respect of the electricity tariff hike, it would not only have a direct impact but also create a chain reaction by pushing up costs across business sectors; for example, electricity-intensive industries could pass the increased bill costs to consumers
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
329
major institutions project taiwans economy to expand between 2.63 and 3.45 in 2022 and between 1.58 and 2.91 in 2023
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
857
another board director pointed out that the recent us rate hike will be followed by further gradual increases, and the euro area and japan will also raise rates albeit at a slower pace; given the current economic and financial conditions, it will serve taiwan well to stay put
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
653
in the future, the bank will monitor the policy changes of other central banks and the developments in international economic and financial conditions to advise quarterly reviews and respond as warranted
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
612
against this backdrop, stable monetary policy will provide some predictability for firms and investors in their investment decisions and thus galvanize domestic investment, which justifies keeping the policy rates unchanged for the time being
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
104
the forecasts by international and domestic institutions for taiwans inflation next year average around 1.37
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
21
a rate cut would indicate the banks stance on easing and a commitment to ensure ample market liquidity
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
517
meanwhile, as minimum wage and public sector pay were scheduled to be raised next year, private consumption is expected to enjoy further growth
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
514
in regard to inflation, elevated services prices in major economies had led to a slower decline in core inflation, causing the disinflation progress to stall
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
69
one board director pointed to tepid exports and private investment and cautioned that these sectors remained mired in negative growth despite some signs of recovery
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
165
then, intensifying conflicts in ukraine pushed up hedging demand and led the us dollar index to rise sharply and fluctuate at elevated levels
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
301
these risks, should they materialize, could hinder global economic growth and jeopardize financial stability
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
648
in the future, the bank will continue reviewing the status of banks real estate lending and the effectiveness of the banks credit control measures, closely monitor potential impacts of real estate sector-related policies on the housing market, and adjust the measures as needed in order to promote financial stability and sound banking operations
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
66
taking this assessment into account, the board judged that maintaining the current policy rate levels and monetary easing would help sustain price and financial stability and foster economic growth
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
680
in more recent months, international oil and other commodity prices trended down, services price rises moderated, and global inflation further eased
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
900
in terms of the outlook for residential housing market in major cities, banks showed slightly less optimism about some areas and were continuously upbeat about some other areas
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
450
on the other hand, though, this is neither the right time to begin a rate hike cycle, considering the absence of an overheating risk or strong growth momentum
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
68
in the months since midyear, the decline in taiwans export growth has slowed as continued sluggishness in global final demand was somewhat offset by stronger export momentum of information communication technol ogy products to meet demand for emerging technology applications and by narrower contractions in traditional sector exports
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
700
looking ahead, the global economic outlook is confronted by many uncertainties, as these factors, including monetary policy paths of major central banks such as the timing of a fed or ecb pivot to easing, developments after the boj ended negative interest rate policy, etc
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
483
while taiwans inflation was mild relative to other major economies, it was partly sustained by tariff and tax control measures aiming at restraining raw material prices
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
729
taking into account the upside and downside factors, the director approved of a rate hold and noted that, given the transmission lags of monetary policy, it was with hope that more effects would show progressively
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
734
the bank forecasts this years cpi annual growth rate to be 1.07 and core cpi 1.11
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
58