Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_china_taiwan

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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999
for the year as a whole, international institutions projected oil prices to be higher than the previous year
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
511
the bank will assess their implication s for domestic economic activity and financial conditions and adjust its monetary policy in a timely manner as warranted, so as to fulfill the statutory duties of maintaining financial and price stability and fostering economic development within the scope of the aforementioned objectives
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
738
the bank projected solid export growth for the year as a whole
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
307
another board director noted that the effectiveness of the selective credit controls was hampered by the liquidity flush in the domestic market
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
83
borrowers would also be required to commit to begin construction within a specific time frame, a rule aiming at urging them to begin building work sooner so as to increase housing supply and prevent undue financing for land hoarding
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
488
the banks 2024 inflation projections were revised upwards on account of the planned electricity tariff hike in april
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
566
considering these and a higher base effect in the second half of the year, the pace of the economic recovery may moderate slightly
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
317
one of these directors pointed out that upon the june 2023 introduction of this ltv ratio cap, a supplementary policy measure was implemented concurrently to exempt home-movers within a one-year window conditional upon signed affidavits
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
244
international oil prices touched a three-year high in late january and later fluctuated at a lower, narrow range in line with the changes in us crude oil inventories
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
713
it was therefore projected that the global economy would grow at a slower pace this year
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
403
in terms of export markets, exports to taiwans major trading destinations all recorded positive growth
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
357
these could drive up domestic prices for energy, food, and durable consumer goods, thereby stoking inflationary pressures
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
674
the board decided unanimously to keep the policy rates on hold at the meeting today, the board considered the totality of economic and financial conditions at home and abroad
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
119
two board directors noted that the bank had adjusted the control measures twice since december 2020; they hoped this adjustment would also be well-received by the market
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
72
based on the estimations of the money demand function, the annual growth rate of m2 demand will remain between 2.5 and 6.5 next year
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
264
one board director put forward a proposition that, for the benefit of monetary policy implementation, the bank may begin to conduct surveys on inflation expectations and consumer finances at its earliest convenience
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
914
nevertheless, the zero interest rate policy of major advanced economies since the 2008 global financial crisis could have unhealthy influences on the economy in general
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
359
discussions regarding the policy rate decision one board director pointed out that the domestic economy was gradually firming up, and inflation continued with a broad downtrend without an expected surge following the april electricity tariff hike
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
169
in terms of participants, one board director pointed to an inspiring sense of unity in taiwan during the 2008 global financial crisis, when the government helped banks, banks helped businesses, and businesses helped workers the kind of inspiration that should be re-created by the banking sector in the current crisis to turn the tide
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
560
by contrast, serious debates and rigorous research on inflation are somewhat insufficient in taiwan
irrelevant
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
531
removing the grace period for a second home loan taken out by a natural person for housing located in the stipulated specific areas, namely taipei city, new taipei city, taoyuan city, taichung city, tainan city, kaohsiung city, hsinchu county, and hsinchu city
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
174
moreover, taiwans nominal and real interest rates continue to register around the middle range among a host of economies appendix figure 1 table 2
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
225
on the other hand, imported inflationary pressures would be held down by lower international oil prices projected for this year
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
575
in terms of annual changes in the number of employed persons, the manufacturing sector posted a further decrease in october while the services sector saw an increase
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
243
the bank therefore slightly upgraded the forecast for taiwans 2024 gdp growth rate to 3.22 see appendix table 1 for the forecasts by major institutions, which was higher than 1.31 in 2023
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
589
major institutions at home and abroad projected taiwans economy to grow by 0.77-2.00 in 2023 and by 2.30-3.40 in 2024
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
556
in the labor market, the number of employed persons continued increasing in recent months, the unemployment rate registered lower than that in the same period last year, and total nominal earnings posted mild growth
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
677
several board directors expressed concern about the aforementioned cap tightening adversely impacting home-movers, and suggested the bank communicate to the public about relevant home-mover assistance measures
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
416
looking ahead, key determinants of future price trends include upside pressures from the following last years price decline for fruit and vegetables owing to abundant supply is likely to result in a steeper increase in food prices this year; the base wage hike this year would drive upwards employee pay and prices for away-from-home food; coach bus fares would be raised from march onwards
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
893
however, synchronized policy rate hikes by major central banks, including the fed and the ecb, could further slow global growth, undermine financial stability, and heighten economic risks
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
872
the revised forecasts for the annual cpi and core cpi growth rates were 2.16 and 2.03, lower than the 2.49 and 2.58 registered last year
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
883
the ongoing russia-ukraine war pushed up international raw material prices
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
173
both retail and foodbeverage sectors witnessed the strongest sales in history during the jan.-jul
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
120
the policy measures have so far effectively helped banks mitigate credit risk associated with real estate lending, reflected by steady slowdown in banks construction and housing loan growth and the continuously low level of the non-performing loan ratio for real estate lending
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
261
therefore, with the aim of stemming an inordinately high flow of bank credit into the real estate sector and further reining in credit risk of such lending, the bank decided to introduce the following amendments appendix, effective march 19, 2021 1 lowering the ltv ratio cap on housing loans extended to corporate entities capped at 40
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
304
it would then require attention to whether, by the expiry of the relief loan programs or interest subsidy schemes, a clear recovery would have arrived and whether potential borrowers would still have funding needs that could be helped by these policies
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
913
another board director expressed a similar view that, in the context of a gradual recovery next year and insufficient momentum for private consumption and investment, it is even more important to maintain a stable financial environment while the government is pressing ahead with expansionary fiscal stimulation
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
512
during the first eleven months of the year, the cpi increased by 2.48 on average over the same period last year
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
973
during the first eight months of the year, the annual growth rate of the cpi averaged 2.32 mainly owing to rising food prices such as fruit and food away from home, housing rent hikes, and price rises in personal effects, entertainment services, and medical fees, which combined to contribute 1.75 percentage points, or about 75, to the rise in the cpi annual growth rate
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
127
overall, the bank forecasted taiwans economy to expand by 3.22 year on year in 2024, higher than 1.31 of 2023, based on the expectation of exports and private investment resuming positive growth and private consumption continuing rising
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
313
another board director agreed with the rate cut decision, citing a forecast downgrade for domestic economic growth and an uncertain outlook
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
841
for instance, inflation expectations of households could well overshoot actual inflation as the day-to-day shopping experience of goods and services tends to dictate public expectations of inflation
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
901
meanwhile, active business investment in the emerging applications related to the internet of things iot and cloud services, among others, are also likely to fuel export growth
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
349
the director highlighted that the annual growth rate of the monetary aggregate m2 continued to exceed 6.5, the upper threshold of the banks m2 growth reference range, and noted the widening interest rate differential between taiwan and the us
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
830
in terms of economic growth, the global recovery remains on track, though still facing multiple uncertainties
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
156
in addition, the bank estimated that taiwan would have a slightly negative output gap in both 2024 and 2025
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
723
since the board met in june this year, the cumulative effects of significant policy rate hikes by major central banks in the us and europe since 2022 have continued to work through the economy
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
322
once that expectation takes hold, it would be difficult to reverse the trend even with loan-to-value restrictions or tax-based policies
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
687
from the second half of 2017 to 2018, taiwans economic growth is likely to advance with mild momentum and to remain lower than potential
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
376
banks excess reserves averaged slightly above nt45 billion for the three months from june to august
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
573
recently, failures or financial distresses of some banks in the us and europe had roiled international financial markets
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
385
take for instance electronic parts and components firms, which could easily fall victim to a supply dislocation
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,020
827
still, the member agreed with todays 0.125 percentage point rate hike proposition
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
755
however, exports still saw tepid recovery momentum as final demand remained suppressed by a dim global economic outlook, while domestic consumer spending was not sufficiently strong
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
721
nevertheless, housing market transactions began to climb back up and housing prices saw steeper rises in the second half of last year, leading the annual growth rate of housing loans to trend upwards continuously to 11.0 at the end of august this year, the highest since may 2006
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
370
the median of domestic institutions cpi forecasts is 1.18 and that of international institutions forecasts is 1.30
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
600
greater final demand benefiting from the gradual normalization of economic activity in major economies was expected to keep taiwans exports enjoying solid real growth in the second half of 2021, with significant expansion for the year as a whole before moderating next year
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
255
meanwhile, recent developments in us inflation and the feds monetary policy stance have sparked a drastic increase in volatility in international financial markets
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
230
in this view, the bank revised its inflation forecasts to 2.09 for both the inflation and core inflation rates for this year, which were lower than the levels of 2022 at 2.95 and 2.61, respectively
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
711
myriad uncertainties facing the global economic outlook could dampen the domestic growth momentum
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
877
the bank expected the inflation rate to come down slowly during the second half of the year with the fourth quarter witnessing a pace of around 2
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
964
one board director noted the current economic situation was a moderate domestic economy confronted by an external cool-down
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
771
by product groups, most of the leading groups registered negative growth, except for information, communications audio-video products, and electrical machinery products
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
460
data showed that there had been a large number of new borrowers taking out their second outstanding housing loans, representing a share of about 17 in the second quarter of 2024
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
111
taiwans forecasts for cpi and core cpi to drop below 2 in 2023 already consider potential power tariff increases
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
122
looking ahead, downside risks continue to loom over the global economic outlook, including uneven vaccination progress, a greater impact of new virus strains, pressures for some advanced economies to gradually withdraw monetary easing, potential disasters owing to climate change, and heightened geopolitical conflicts
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
345
for the first five months of the year, the annual growth rates of the cpi and core cpi excluding fruit, vegetables, and energy items averaged 3.04 and 2.33, respectively
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
634
such plans shall not adversely impact the funding needs of non-homeowners applying for owner-occupied housing loans, or real estate sector entities looking to finance their projects aligned with the government-promoted policies of urban renewal, reconstruction of old and unsafe buildings, and affordable housing, or corporates seeking capital to build or buy own-use plants or offices
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
692
as of the end of april 2021, the annual growth rate of sme loans extended by banks registered 13.46 and the annual growth rate of overall bank lending was 7.32
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
22
one board director stated that, after the adjustments are approved, the bank will meet with banks with the aim of further improving the relevant rules
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
780
the bank has made five amendments to its selective credit control measures since december 2020, which have helped banks mitigate risks associated with real estate lending
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
668
looking ahead, primary sources of upside price pressures include next years base wage and public sector pay hike and the likely consequence of a private sector pay raise, which could increase hiring costs and in turn feed into the prices of goods and services; further increases in global food prices, adding to upward pressures for domestic prices of food away from home; unabated supply chain disruptions, which could push up the prices of certain goods
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
994
against this background, a rate hold would be appropriate
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
443
nonetheless, this does not mean the bank should write off interest rate policy completely but consider a policy mix of macroprudential measures and interest rate adjustment when warranted
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
267
global inflation is expected to rise steadily amid continued global economic growth and rising raw material prices
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
701
for 2023, oil prices are forecasted to be lower than in 2022
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
926
for the outlook of the second half of the year, with services inflation easing further, the bank expects the inflation rate to gradually come down in the second half of the year
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
170
as the domestic pandemic cases diminished, the housing market also witness a rebound in transaction volume as well as a price rally
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,021
272
for the year as a whole, it is expected that bank loans and investments will post mild growth
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
65
private investment, whose growth has long been highly correlated with exports, could fare poorly this year; the bank expected private investment to show negative growth in 2023 in consequence of sluggish export growth, ongoing inventory adjustments, and cautious business outlook sentiment
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
151
nevertheless, considering that investment plans could be interrupted by this pandemic, as well as a higher base effect, the bank forecasted a moderation in real private investment growth
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
756
for the second quarter, the economy was expected to exhibit solid growth, with data in recent months showing a rebound in private investment as well as continuous growth in exports and private consumption
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
939
in terms of private consumption, labor market conditions were stable, the unemployment rate edged down further, and the number of employed persons increased steadily
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
922
the clearer, the firmer, and the sooner an effective monetary policy is introduced, the more likely it will be to well anchor inflation expectations early on and to ward off the risk of an economic recession
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
451
nonetheless, the annual m2 growth rate has stayed within the banks 2.5-6.5 target range in recent years, implying sufficient support for domestic economic activity in normal circumstances
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
391
many major central banks continued to raise their policy rates to tackle inflation whereas some economies still kept an accommodative monetary policy stance or even reduced rates
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
204
overall, the bank expected the economy to be encumbered by the corornavirus outbreak for the first half of 2020 as manufacturing supply chains and the service sector were hampered
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,020
229
one board director shared that the bank noticed a continuous increase in banks real estate loans with a large balance as a percentage of total loans
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
299
although economic expansion remained steady, indicators like the business climate monitor and leading indicators signaled high uncertainties
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
276
international commodity prices, including crude oil, have mostly declined, alleviating global inflationary pressures
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
486
the banks survey on investment trust companies revealed a significant increase in the number of respondents expecting the cpi inflation rate to exceed 1 in the following 12 months, indicating higher inflation expectations
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
534
meanwhile, local consumer demand was impaired as the virus outbreak persisted; some service providers tried to lure customers with lower prices
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
978
with the support of robust financial markets in recent years and a cyclical recovery in global manufacturing activity and trade since the second half of 2016, growth momentum for global economy will strengthen and world trade volume is expected to register faster growth too
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
884
since the beginning of this year, the u.s., europe, and some asia-pacific economies had aggressively raised their policy rates to tame relatively higher inflationary pressures
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
541
with corporate profits growing, employers might be more willing to increase hiring and hand out bonus pay
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
983
meanwhile, the survey on firms showed that most respondents expected the cpi inflation rate to stay below 2 in the same period, indicating still mild inflation expectations
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
969
the board considered the economic and financial conditions at home and abroad in todays meeting the current domestic inflation situation is viewed as manageable and the inflation rate is expected to return to a slower pace next year
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
972
in addition, monetary tightening since march would also help dampen housing credit growth
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
980
the bank managed market liquidity and helped keep bank reserves at an adequate level, and the overnight call loan rate of the banking sector was also steady
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
305
taiwans real interest rate has reached above zero while many major economies still register negative real interest rates
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
348