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gtfintechlab
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central_bank_of_china_taiwan

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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global trade was also forecasted by international institutions to grow slower in 2022 than in 2021 as the wto goods trade barometer slid deeper this year so far
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
829
we will undertake appropriate monetary policy actions accordingly in an attempt to fulfill the central banks statutory mandate
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
927
for the outlook of this year, the cpi inflation rate would likely slow down from last year given a mild rise in commodity prices, as international oil prices were projected by international institutions to edge up from the previous year, and a smaller increase in services prices owing to a high base effect
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
550
the director, expressing support for todays policy propositions, added that the reserve requirement tool influences through the stock of money
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
455
however, as lives began to return to normal after the pandemic waned, entertainment prices experienced sharper-than-expected price surges; in addition, worldwide avian flu pushed up prices of eggs and chicken meat and the domestic electricity tariffs were also raised significantly
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
766
amid the evolving pandemic, the bank paid close attention to credit conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
574
being key players in the world, these economies policies carry a weight on the global economic and financial scenes
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
421
despite the steady pace of economic expansion, growth in exports and capital equipment imports both slowed, while retail sales also posted limited growth
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
691
building ownership transfers nationwide increased by 3.34 year-on-year in the first four months, with a 0.7 increase in the six special municipalities for january to may
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
690
one board director remarked that the previous series of selective credit controls were indeed introduced with the aim of a healthy housing market; in the meantime, the bank continued monitoring banks loan portfolio to curb an inordinate flow of capital into the real estate sector
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
650
in contrast, taiwans economy is forecast by multiple domestic institutions to register positive, close to 2 saars in all the quarters this year
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
890
meanwhile, bank loans and investments are likely to grow steadily as the domestic recovery and mild growth in fixed investment drive a stable demand for funds
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
954
surging energy and food prices have kept inflation in major economies at high levels this year so far
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
585
the data also showed that the average ltv ratio of this loan bracket had stayed high since july 2023
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
519
the nt dollar has strengthened against the us dollar, but the real effective exchange rate reer index of the nt dollar trended down as major currencies appreciated more markedly against the us dollar
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
520
as a result of mild inflation, taiwans real interest rate has returned to positive territory, whereas many major economies continued to register negative real interest rates
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
10
private consumption, on the other hand, was forecasted to continue expanding in real terms as the domestic economic recovery bolstered consumer confidence, along with brisk trading in the stock market
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
206
these developments carried positive implications for financial stability and indicated that the banks rate hikes were beginning to show results
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
819
in addition, several neighboring economies had turned less hawkish with rate holds or even rate cuts
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
753
the proposed actions at todays meeting was a policy mix of two quantity-related tools by adjusting the selective credit control measures alongside an rrr hike
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
491
looking ahead, global economic prospects face many downside risks, including the cumulative effect of major central banks tightening and the duration for the policy rates to stay elevated, greater risk for the chinese economic slowdown to worsen, and fragmentation in the world economy, all of which could weigh on the momentum of the global economic recovery
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
543
a 70 ltv ratio cap was thus to be introduced for the second housing loans taken out by natural persons for homes in the specific areas so as to strengthen real estate-related credit risk management
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
666
the pandemic-hit domestically-oriented services sector gradually rebounded, and labor market conditions steadily resumed the levels before the mid-2021 domestic copvid-19 flare-up
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
308
one board director pointed out that following the policy launch, the bank will strive to address problems and difficulties
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
171
under the circumstances, large capital flows could move to taiwan, carrying adverse implications for the foreign exchange market, financial stability, and the real economy
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
45
however, the core inflation rates did not drop as fast, reflecting slower services price decreases owing to downward price stickiness
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
699
the cbc forecasts cpi and core inflation for 2017 to rise 0.80 and 1.04 year on year, respectively
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
139
if inflation shows any hint of becoming unanchored by the next board meeting, the bank should take a stronger approach to contain inflation
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
216
the rate hike, albeit based on a comprehensive assessment of the overall economic and financial conditions, would be helpful to some parts of the economy while undesirable to others
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
366
taiwan has recently witnessed frequent short-term capital movements with adverse implications for the domestic forex and stock markets
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
176
in addition, global inflation prospects remain uncertain as commodity supply is threatened by climate change and geopolitical risks
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
920
with interest rates staying low for a long while, speculators seeking short-term gains and first-time homebuyers wary of price surges scrambled to buy houses, creating a vicious loop that could be exacerbated if low rates persist longer
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
258
from june onwards, on account of the rebound in domestic food prices, the cpi annual growth rate displayed a mild uptrend and reached 0.96 in august
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
49
in the services sector, for the month of july, the number of employed persons and the amount of overtime hours worked both increased year on year
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
433
while ukrainian grain exports hampered by the war have been easing somewhat, many of their crop areas were no longer arable; combined with adverse weather conditions such as droughts in other major food commodity exporters, feed prices remained elevated, which could affect domestic prices of eggs and meat and impact the cpi trends
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
930
domestic services prices were expected to show a slower increase owing to a high base effect
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
946
looking ahead, the global economic and financial outlooks are clouded by multiple uncertainties, such as the cumulative effects of monetary tightening by major central banks and the duration of interest rates staying high, chinas economic slowdown, and fragmentation of the global economy, which could all restrain the momentum for global economic recovery
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
344
since the board met in december last year, global economic and trade momentum has moderated, prices of commodities such as international crude oil have exhibited a downtrend, and global inflation has fallen back down gradually
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
936
upward pressures on prices may come from 1 price increases for services such as buses and restaurants owing to higher labor costs under the five-day workweek system, 2 higher cigarette prices as a result of the june 12 hike of the cigarette tax by nt20 per pack, and 3 an expected upsurge in vegetable prices owing to torrential rain in june
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
824
forecasts by major domestic and foreign institutions for taiwans inflation rate ranged between 2.24 and 2.51 for this year and between 1.64 and 2.70 for the year 2024
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
741
regarding export growth, although there were signs of recovery after a series of declines for 12 consecutive months, it was not rebounding forcefully and order visibility was low
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
999
deliberations on the content of the selective credit control measures one board director stated that in an market economy, property investment should be done with own funds instead of tapping bank loans; in that sense, the ltv cap on new housing loans for borrowers with at least two outstanding loans should be even lower than proposed
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
855
several board directors expressed their views about the effects, participating banks, lending rates, and eligible borrowers under the proposed facility, as well as the procedures to adjust the facility if needed
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
751
regarding private consumption, post-pandemic consumer sentiment for travel would likely remain high, while household disposable income would gain from a minimum wage hike, a public sector pay-raise, and a further rise in the income tax-free basic living expenses allowance
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
124
current inflationary pressures and expected inflation are both mild
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
242
meanwhile, given the us-china trade conflict, some supply chains could shift out of china, driving production costs upwards
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
161
in terms of money supply trends since april this year, the annual growth rate of the monetary aggregate m2 first rose to 6.25 in june alongside the rising annual growth rate of loans and investments; afterwards, m2 growth dropped to an annual pace of 5.80 in august owing to net capital outflows
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
42
another board director supported the 0.125 percentage point hike and remarked on the inflation rate
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
621
the proposition to restrict the ltv ratios of this loan bracket seemed to aim at the concern that excessive lending to the real estate sector could undermine banks risk control
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
524
as the pandemic raged through the world, most economies saw steep cuts to their domestic growth forecasts, with the united states, the euro area, and japan recently projected by international forecasters to register negative growth
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
212
the peoples bank of china, on the other hand, deployed more easing measures
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
718
the bank forecasts that taiwans economy would expand by 4.53 in 2021 appendix table 1
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
262
nevertheless, the director cautioned that prices of services continued to rise markedly and, like core inflation, tend to resist downward change; it was important to prevent inflation expectations from firming up
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
91
while the government has begun to introduce relief measures and stimulus programs, the bank has also undertaken supportive actions with an easy monetary environment and a special sme accommodation facility
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
813
todays new cap tightening would not only prevent credit flows from being used for property hoarding, but also help channel those credit towards priority use for home loans to non- homeowners
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
401
domestic price trends for next year could face upside pressures from increased overseas and domestic travel due to border reopening, the scheduled hike in minimum wages, and possible electricity and gas rate hikes
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
761
the overnight call loan rate has also been steady
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
579
affected by low oil prices and soft consumer demand, global inflation would drop in 2020 compared to last year and rebound next year, according to international forecasting institutions
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
991
the recent russian invasion of ukraine has propelled major economies to impose economic and financial sanctions on russia, hampering global commodity supply, inducing commodity price surges, and thereby creating further inflationary pressures
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
13
for the first two months of the year, the annual cpi growth rate averaged 2.60, reflecting price rises in fuel and lubricant products, food away from home, fruit, durable consumer goods, and transportation with a combined contribution of 1.57 percentage points to the increase
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
583
several board directors shared their views on the content of this adjustment
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,021
458
for housing loans to corporate entities, high-value housing loans, and the third or more housing loans to natural persons, the ltv ratio caps would both be lowered to 30
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
966
the board thus decided to raise the reserve requirement ratios on nt dollar passbook and time savings deposits by 0.25 percentage points, effective july 1, 2024 appendix 2
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
673
with respect to internal demand, private investment was expected to sustain growth with tech firms increasing capital outlay, major investment projects such as green energy and government-supported infrastructure development moving along, and maritime and air transporters procuring new equipment
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
73
for this year, the bank forecast the cpi and core cpi annual growth rates to be 0.91 and 0.78, respectively
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
508
a reference survey the bank conducted on investment trust companies revealed an increased share of those respondents expecting domestic prices to slightly turn upwards, and the expectation pointed to a mild inflation
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
592
one board director remarked that domestic consumer price trends were relatively steady, and a rate hike out of step with major economies could amplify the ntd strength
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
938
should these uncertainties and risks materialize andor intensify, they could weigh down the global economic recovery
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
581
as of the end of april, the average annual growth rate of home loans extended by banks rose modestly while that of construction loans declined further, and their non- performing ratios stayed low
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
528
looking ahead, the global economy would have to move forward in a sea of uncertainties likely to arise from 1 a significant lack of effective mass vaccination; 2 rising yields on longer-term bonds of major economies, which could cause financial conditions to tighten; 3 financial fragilities exacerbating further as the pandemic aggravates existing inequality, productivity slack, and debt burdens; 4 lingering global economic and trade uncertainties over such issues as us-china relations, as well as unabated climate change risks
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
202
in addition, compared with recent data of other economies, taiwans real housing price index seemed to have a relatively lower annual growth rate; however, taiwan ranked higher than most countries in terms of accumulated growth in housing prices in the past 20 years
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
232
on the other hand, the last time the bank adjusted reserve requirements was more than a decade ago, and the effect of this type of adjustment at a time when bank excess reserves stayed somewhat elevated would be limited
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
777
one board director pointed to the spillover effect of the us monetary easing policy having a world-wide impact and noted that a small open economy like taiwan would be especially vulnerable
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
138
the annual growth rate of the cpi has stayed over 2 for consecutive months and will likely remain so towards the third quarter of the year, while that of the core cpi has also increased, both pointing to a persistent trend of elevated inflation
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
477
another board director remarked that the bank should take action to vigorously fight inflation and, in particular, inflation expectations; therefore, the director supported the rate hike proposition
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
54
with respect to global inflation, it was expected to soften this year as a result of the effects from monetary tightening by major economies, global consumer demand cooling off, and international energy prices trending down
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
24
a board director emphasized that although inflation is expected to drop below 2, inflationary pressures persist, with core inflation above 2 since march
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
427
according to the banks estimation, the inflation rate this year would peak in the second quarter owing to a one-off spike from the lower base a year ago
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
774
another board director pointed that, in fact, as early as the end of 2023, some banks had begun to dial down real estate lending as they came close to the aforementioned regulatory limit of 30 or their internal control level
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
925
as a result, the annual growth rate of domestic banks loans and investments rose, with loans to small and medium-sized enterprises smes also expanding
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
107
meanwhile, other economies in asia either maintained or reduced their policy rates
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
297
1 the domestic inflation slowdown was projected to continue, with the annual growth rates of cpi and core cpi both forecasted to be 2.09
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
143
overall, the bank projected exports to post solid growth this year and slower growth next year
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
153
compared to the previous forecast made in december 2023, there was a slight upward revision by 0.10 percentage points, reflecting increased contribution from net foreign demand and private consumption
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
759
in addition, housing market transactions have been dampened somewhat in the year to date as a result of the governments cross-agency efforts under the healthy real estate market plan and the pandemic flare-up in recent months
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
640
thereafter, as the domestic coronavirus outbreak remained contained, the indices for future outlooks for the following six months under taiwans manufacturing pmi purchasing managers index and nmi non-manufacturing index both continued to rise, pointing to stable outlooks as anticipated by businesses and a likely upturn in domestic economic growth in the latter half of the year
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
818
in addition, geopolitical risks and climate change could also affect the progress of global disinflation
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
20
in addition, the bank estimated that taiwan would have a negative output gap in 2024
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
548
therefore, the director supported a 0.125 percentage point rate hike in the hope of containing inflation expectations
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
284
looking at different categories of the cpi basket, prices of goods declined recently while prices of services, which tend to be sticky e.g., easy to increase but slow to decrease, continued to trend upwards
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
638
in principle, the nt dollar exchange rate is determined by market forces
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
394
as a result, annual growth of banks real estate loans climbed back up rapidly, leading to a higher loan concentration in real estate loans that came close to a historical high as of august 2024
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
425
meanwhile, foreign capital showed a net inflow, the nt dollar appreciated, and taiwans stock markets rallied
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
347
to address the pandemics impact, major economies kept their monetary policy stances accommodative and continued to roll out large fiscal stimulus programs
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
57
this could lead to deterioration in asset quality
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
182
research shows that taiwans housing price cycle runs ahead of the credit cycle, suggesting that housing price increases are not primarily driven by bank credit growth
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
974
the bank of japan boj also made no change in its easy policy stance
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
757
average bank excess reserves stood at around nt70 billion
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
183
taking into account the relatively milder inflation in taiwan compared to major economies, and the slower pace of the feds rate hike by only 0.25 percentage points yesterday march 22, the director supported the proposition of raising the policy rates by 0.125 percentage points
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
319
in the face of drastic price volatility caused by supply-side factors, monetary policy responses such as aggressive tightening could concomitantly restrain economic output; therefore, supply-side measures would serve better under the circumstances
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
835