Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

central_bank_of_egypt

sentences stringlengths 32 375	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the key elements of the framework include but are not limited to: narrowing the country’s fiscal deficit to sustainable levels in order to alleviate the pressure on domestic liquidity, avail greater resources to the private sector to increase production, and hence reduce the consequent inflationary pressures from money creation.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,015	705
annual headline and core inflation continued to decline in november 2017 for the fourth consecutive month to record 26.0 percent and 25.5 percent, after peaking in july 2017 at 33.0 percent and 35.3 percent, respectively.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	921
furthermore, annual core inflation remained stable at 3.6 percent for the second consecutive month in february 2021.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	158
consequently, egypt weathered large capital outflows and rising commodity prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	654
latest available data in 2019 q2 showed that private domestic demand outpaced net exports as the main driver of economic activity since the beginning of 2019, driven by the acceleration in private investment growth, which recorded the highest growth in 2018/19 since 2005/06, as well as the gradual recovery in private consumption.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	822
the discount rate was also kept unchanged at 8.75 percent.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	43
this comes after the 2013/14 fiscal year real gdp growth rate recorded 2.2 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	189
in the meantime, investment continued to improve for the third consecutive quarter.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	869
the annual headline cpi inflation inchedup to 8.45 percent (y/y) in august compared to 8 percent in july.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	987
the mpc will consider a measured rate cut when needed, so as to prevent economic growth from falling below its potential.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,008	467
the annual rate declined to 9.66 percent in january from 10.13 percent in december, supported by the favorable base effect from last year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	257
moving forward, the mpc will keep monitoring the global and domestic conditions for further developments and will not hesitate to utilize all available tools to achieve its price stability mandate over the medium term.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	658
hence, the deceleration in november 2021 was driven by the lower annual contribution of food items, which more than offset the higher annual contribution of nonfood items.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	754
this nascent recovery in economic activity came on the back of tentative signs of recovery in the construction and tourism sectors.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	632
the drop in headline cpi was particularly intensified as base effects caused by last year’s supply shocks continue to level off.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,007	426
the mpc will continue to monitor all economic developments.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,006	288
in its meeting held on march 10, 2011, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate and overnight lending rate unchanged at 8.25 percent and 9.75 percent, respectively.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	70
the headline and core annual inflation rates thereby registerd the lowest since october and april 2016, respectively.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	167
the mpc’s decision to keep the cbe’s key policy rates unchanged is consistent with achieving the targeted disinflation path.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	102
real gdp growth registered 4.3 percent during the first nine months of 2015/16, down from 4.8 percent during the respective period of the previous year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	250
consistent with the inflation outlook and the targeted disinflation path, the mpc judges that the key cbe rates are currently appropriate.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	832
this comes as a result of the moderation of monthly headline inflation rates between august and october 2017 to around 1.1 percent, compared to an average of 1.6 percent in the corresponding months in 2016.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	916
while domestic food prices declined, annual headline cpi inflation continued to be high at 20.3 percent in november 2008 compared to 20.2 percent in october driven by the rebound in nonfood inflation.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	763
annual food inflation declined in november 2021 for the first time since april 2021, to record 8.1 percent in november 2021 from 11.6 percent in october 2021, due to the decline in the annual contribution of volatile food items, despite higher annual contribution of core and regulated food items.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	84
meanwhile, international oil prices continued to increase since the beginning of 2019 and remain subject to volatility due to geopolitical risks and potential supplyside factors, which pose risks to the domestic inflation outlook.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	295
in the meantime, core cpi increased by 0.84 percent (m/m) in september compared to an inch up of 0.60 percent 1.79 percent (m/m) in august and july, respectively.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	125
real gdp growth stabilized at 5.4 percent in 2018 q2, after rising for six consecutive quarters.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	845
in july 2022, annual headline urban inflation resumed its upward trend, that started in december 2021, to record 13.6 percent, that is after decelerating in june 2022 to record 13.2 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	191
regarding the labor market, the unemployment rate declined in 2022 q1, registering 7.2 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	617
global financial conditions are expected to remain accommodative and supportive of economic activity over the mediumterm.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	64
fiscal consolidation measures are expected to lead to oneoff increases in the price level, which translate into temporary higher inflation rates.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	709
central bank of egypt april 28th, 2021 the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the central bank of egypt’s (cbe) overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation unchanged at 8.25 percent, 9.25 percent, and 8.75 percent, respectively.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	247
on the other hand, net exports contributed negatively to gdp in h1, driven by weaker exports, while imports have been contributing positively, given their relative decline.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	434
developments in the external environment show some firming of international commodity prices on annual terms, despite registering monthly declines since march 2017 mainly on the back of crude oil prices, while food prices declined at a relatively slower pace.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	362
the latest monthly development in headline inflation was largely driven by the sharp rise in the prices of butane gas cylinders on the back of bottlenecks in the distribution channels in addition to the annual adjustment in school tuition fees.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	215
the discount rate was also cut by 50 basis points to 8.75 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	879
meanwhile, annual food inflation remained stable after contributing to the decline in january 2021, in light of the continued reversal of the transitory shock in tomato prices.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	985
however, risks to the disinflation path are tilted to the upside given tighter global oil supplies, escalation of regional geopolitical tensions, uncertainty regarding the adoption of protectionist trade policies, and higher than anticipated passthrough of fiscal measures.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	652
meanwhile, international oil prices started to slightly pick up recently.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	316
as upside risks to the inflation outlook continue to moderate as the possibility of a rebound in international food prices is unlikely in light of recent global developments, annual inflation is projected to ease from their current levels in the coming months.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	489
hence, the domestic banking system can be characterized as highly liquid and well capitalized.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,008	89
developments in the external environment show that there has been some firming of international commodity prices, while low global inflation and subdued global growth continue to maintain weak pressures on domestic prices, albeit recovering and beginning to set the stage for monetary policy normalization.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	977
achieving low and stable inflation over the medium term is a requisite condition to achieve sustainable economic growth.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	199
the mpc treats the developments emanating from the russo ukrainian conflict to be among the exogenous shocks that are outside the scope of monetary policy and yet may lead to transitory deviations from preannounced target rates.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	277
in its meeting held on november 1, 2007, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to maintain the overnight deposit and lending rates at 8.75 percent and 10.75 percent, respectively.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	878
the slight uptick in june 2021 was driven by the higher annual inflation of food items, which accelerated to 3.4 percent in june 2021 from 1.7 percent in may 2021, reflecting higher annual contribution of subsidized and core food items.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	789
headline cpi declined by 1.02 percent (m/m) in december after recording an increase of 0.95 (m/m) in november, bringing the annual rate to 11.66 percent in december down from 12.97 percent in the previous month.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	408
this increase is attributed mainly to food items and further supported by nonfood items.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,022	865
future decisions will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming data releases.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,006	148
the gradual unwinding of food inflation along with the improvement of inflation expectations since the beginning of the year suggest that inflation remains on a downward trajectory, albeit restrained by the drag of fiscal measures.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	894
the annual headline inflation rates are expected to continue on this declining path as the base effect from the previous price increases related to the supply shocks fully level off.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,007	37
moreover, elevated broad money growth running above its historical average further contributed to existing inflationary pressures.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	776
monthly developments have been largely driven by the rise in food prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	380
given these developments, annual headline inflation is expected to remain above the mpc’s preannounced target of 7 percent (±2 percentage points) on average in 2022 q4.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	851
headline cpi increased by 0.60 percent (m/m) in april compared to an increase of 0.68 percent (m/m) in march, while the annual rate decreased to 8.87 percent in april down from 9.82 percent recorded in the previous month, on the back of favorable base effect.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	697
this was also reflected in the unemployment rate which recorded 9.6% in 2020 q2 up from 7.7% in 2020 q1.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	814
in the committee's assessment for the last month, there has been no significant change in the balance of risks to price stability.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,005	904
annual headline inflation in june 2016 was partly affected by unfavorable base effects from the previous year and remained elevated due to the relatively high monthonmonth inflation in may 2016.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	252
notable factors include the outlook for global supply bottlenecks and global economic activity, especially in light of the reopening in china coupled with the recent financial sector issues in advanced economies.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	929
annual headline urban inflation accelerated for the third consecutive month to 5.7 percent in november 2020 from 4.5 percent in october 2020.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	611
the annual rate eased to 9.15 percent in september, after it increased to 10.07 percent in august up from 9.57 percent in july, also due to the favorable base effect from the previous year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	500
given the above, real gdp growth is expected to slow down in fiscal year 2022/23 compared to the previous fiscal year, before picking up gradually over the medium term.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	163
it is worth mentioning that the cumulative monthly increase in headline cpi inched up by only 2.2 percent in 2013q2, a�er increasing by around 5 percent in 2013q1.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	280
available data indicate that net external demand continued to support economic activity, while private domestic demand remained contained during 2018 q3.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	942
given the increases in core items, annual core inflation rose to 30.86 percent in january 2017 due to average monthly inflation of 4.89 percent between november 2016 and january 2017 .	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	596
meanwhile, unemployment rate recorded 7.8 percent in 2019 q3 compared to 7.5 percent in 2019 q2, the lowest level on record.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	604
excluding revaluation effects, higher broad money growth between november 2016 and february 2017 came mainly due to the recovery of net foreign assets, evident by the cbe's international reserve accumulation.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	217
the discount rate was also cut by 100 basis points to 12.75 percent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	395
annual broad money (m2) growth has been strongly affected by revaluation effects of its foreign currency components, recording 39.4 percent in may 2017.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	997
in its meeting held on december 16, 2010, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate and overnight lending rate unchanged at 8.25 percent and 9.75 percent, respectively.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,010	475
such shocks elevated riskoff sentiment and inflation expectations, amplifying underlying inflation.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	203
moreover, stable inflation rates are conducive to achieving sustainable economic growth.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	850
the mpc will continue to closely monitor all economic and monetary developments as well as the balance of risks, and will not hesitate to adjust its stance to offset anticipated upside or downside deviations from the inflation target.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	963
against this background and in light of previous monetary policy actions, the mpc decided to keep the key policy rates unchanged.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	982
meanwhile, real gdp grew by 2.6 percent in 2012/2013 q1, following a similarly feeble growth rate of 2.2 percent in 2011/2012.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	445
the discount rate was also raised by 100 bps to 12.25 percent.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	507
preliminary figures announced recently show that real gdp growth for fy19/20 recorded 3.5 percent, down from 5.6 percent in the previous fiscal year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	645
september 19, 2013 in its meeting held on september 19, 2013, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to cut the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the cbe's main operation by 50 basis points to 8.75 percent, 9.75 percent, and 9.25 percent, respectively.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,013	196
exogenous factors that are outside the scope of monetary policy may lead to transitory deviations from previously announced target rates.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	708
mpc decided to raise key policy rates by 200 bps in its meeting today, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to raise the central bank of egypt’s (cbe) overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation by 200 bps to 18.25 percent, 19.25 percent, and 18.75 percent, respectively.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	785
the unemployment rate registered further improvement in march 2018, declining to 10.6 percent, the lowest since december 2010.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	423
annual headline urban inflation declined to 3.4 percent in august from 4.2 percent in july 2020, the second lowest rate recorded in almost 14 years, after october 2019’s figure.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	683
the central bank of egypt (cbe) moved preemptively, within its mandate, to support economic activity especially businesses and households.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	415
consequently, recent exchange rate dynamics are supporting the tightening of monetary conditions, which will anchor inflation expectations, and dampen the inflation outlook going forward.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	895
central bank of egypt the central bank of egypt decided to keep its overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75 percent per annum.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,007	693
domestic demand came largely due to consumption expenditure, while the contribution of investment expenditure was weak.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	993
from the monetary perspective, annual broad money growth has been strongly affected by the revaluation effects of its foreign currency components.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	781
global economic activity continues to display signs of recovery and resilience in the face of the covid19 pandemic, albeit with varying paces across countries and economic sectors.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	400
while pressures could be expected from possible fiscal consolidation measures, inflation is forecasted to stabilize in 2024 around its current levels.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	132
october 28, 2021 the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the central bank of egypt’s (cbe) overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation unchanged at 8.25 percent, 9.25 percent, and 8.75 percent, respectively.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	55
the discount rate was unchanged.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,009	981
the indicators of real economic activity suggest, on balance, that the recovery continues and that real output growth is now gradually approaching its targeted rate.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,005	847
in the meantime, core inflation rose to 13.25 percent in august 2016 from 12.31 percent in july 2016 as the monthonmonth rate increased to 0.61 percent in august from 0.25 percent in july.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	193
leading indicators for 2023 q3 suggest a general stability in economic activity compared to 2023 q2.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	696
against this background, the mpc's assessment of the balance of risks surrounding the inflation and growth outlook over the mediumterm remains unchanged as risks to the domestic growth outlook continue to be on the downside while inflationary pressures are subsiding.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,009	431
the latest data available reveals that real gdp grew robustly by 4.2 percent in 2014/15 after recording 2.2 percent (y/y) growth in 2013/14.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	620
the annual rate increased to 9.90 percent in march up from 9.70 in february.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	660
the balance of risks surrounding the inflation outlook as well as the transmission of previous mpc decisions to the economy will continue to be assessed in a datadriven manner.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	388
however, upside risks to the forecasted disinflation path remain, including an escalation of current geopolitical tensions, unfavorable climate conditions, both domestically and globally, and higher than anticipated fiscal measures.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	177
in its meeting held on august 25, 2011, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate and overnight lending rate unchanged at 8.25 percent and 9.75 percent, respec�vely, and the 7day repo at 9.25 percent.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/central_bank_of_egypt

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Central Bank of Egypt.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The central_bank_of_egypt dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}