Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_egypt

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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accordingly, inflation dynamics for the past three months ending in september 2023 mainly reflect the effect of adverse weather conditions, which further amplified the seasonal increase in the prices of agricultural products.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
134
in its meeting held on august 16, 2007, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to maintain the overnight deposit and overnight lending rates at 8.75 percent and 10.75 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
522
detailed sectoral growth data for 2021 q4 portrays that economic activity was supported by the robust positive contribution of tourism, nonpetroleum manufacturing and trade.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
422
during the coordinating council meeting on december 17, the government and the cbe have decided to collaborate on designing a macroeconomic framework, aimed at achieving macroeconomic stability that will contribute positively to economic growth and job creation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
239
meanwhile, real gdp grew by 4.3 percent (y/y) in 2014/15 q2 to record 5.6 percent (y/y) in the first half of the fiscal year, supported by the record growth witnessed in the first quarter.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
996
the discount rate was also kept unchanged at 16.25 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
146
annual headline inflation rates were affected by unfavorable base effects during july 2021 and august 2021 as august 2020 and july 2020 reflected the impact of the covid19 outbreak and its resulting containment measures on inventory levels and consumption patterns.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
218
headline cpi increased by 1.22 percent (m/m) in march following 0.67 percent (m/m) in february, bringing the annual rate to 9.03 percent from 9.19 percent recorded in the previous month.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
290
moreover, geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing maritime trade disruptions continue to raise domestic and global inflationary pressures.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
783
in september 2020, annual core inflation is expected to be affected by unfavorable base effect, given the release of the 10 cpi series as well as its linking methodology with the 9 cpi series starting with september 2019 data.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
473
in light of the above, the mpc decided to keep policy rates unchanged and to continue assessing the cumulative impact of previously enacted tightening policies and its transmission to the economy in a datadriven manner.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
315
despite persistent nonfood inflation, the current moderation in inflation has been driven by improvements in market dynamics, as reflected by the significant decline in annual food inflation to 31.9 percent in june 2024 from a peak of 73.6 percent in september 2023.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
815
current policy rates remain in line with achieving single digit inflation as soon as the effects of fiscal consolidation measures dissipate.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
909
real gdp growth stabilized around 5.6 percent in 2019 h2 compared to its level in fy2018/19.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
934
it is important to underscore that during the first six months of 2009, transient supply shocks mainly related to volatile food items, namely fruits and vegetables, have emerged.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
402
the discount rate was also cut by 100 basis points to 18.25 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
510
the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to cut the central bank of egypt’s (cbe) overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation by 150 basis points to 14.25 percent, 15.25 percent, and 14.75 percent, respectively.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
732
the monthly outturn was largely subdued on the back of the seasonal decrease in volatile food prices, in addition to the muted movement in the prices of other food, supported by recent government measures to control the prices of basic food items.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
26
latest available data for the first nine months of the fiscal year shows that gdp growth was mainly driven by the private sector, particularly nonpetroleum manufacturing, tourism, and trade.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
39
trade, real estate, construction and tourism were the main sectors driving economic activity.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
86
consumer prices during november were strongly impacted by the economic reform measures related to the foreign exchange rate market liberalization as well as the hydrocarbon subsidies adjustment.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
47
meanwhile, annual core inflation decelerated for the second consecutive month in april 2023 to record 38.6 percent, breaking its upward trend that lasted since mid 2021.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
807
in light of the upcoming 2006 world bank/international monetary fund annual meetings held in singapore between september 11 and 20, the mpc meeting has been rescheduled to thursday october 5 instead of thursday september 21.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,006
957
annual headline urban inflation stabilized at 4.5 percent in march and february 2021, after registering 4.3 percent in january 2021.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
903
this comes as negative annual food inflation eased for the second consecutive month.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
526
economic activity continued to improve with real gdp growing by a revised 5.0 percent in 2016/17 q4 and more recent activity indicators solidifying the improvement.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
933
may 3, 2012 in its meeting held on may 3, 2012, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate and overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.25 percent 10.25 percent, respectively, and the 7‐day repo at 9.75 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
454
incoming data since the november mpc, including the recent inflation dynamics, came broadly in line with expectations.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
606
on the global front, forecasts for key international commodity prices continue to be revised downwards compared to those underlying the previous mpc meetings.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
941
upside risks to the forecasted disinflation path, include but are not limited to, an escalation of the current geopolitical tensions, unfavorable climate conditions, both domestically and globally, and a higher than anticipated outturns of fiscal prudence measures.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
298
this uncertainty adversely affected emerging markets as risk perceptions started to shift.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,006
702
domestic demand, contributed 4.8 percentage points to the revised 4.5 percent real gdp growth in the first half of 2015/16, while net external demand contributed negative 0.3 percentage points.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
142
this led the annual gdp growth for the whole year 2010/2011 to fall to 1.8 percent from 5.1 percent recorded in 2009/2010.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
273
excluding revaluation effects, higher broad money growth during november and december came mainly due to the recovery of net foreign assets, evident by the cbe's international reserve accumulation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
943
while the expansion of global economic activity stabilized, financial conditions and uncertainty regarding trade policies eased somewhat.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
223
the discount rate was also kept unchanged at 11.75 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
154
nevertheless, the diversity of the economy provides some cushion given the resilience of some sectors.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
103
the mpc will continue to closely monitor all economic developments and will not hesitate to adjust the key cbe rates to ensure price stability over the medium‐term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,013
724
in its meeting held on march 18, 2010, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate and overnight lending rate unchanged at 8.25 percent and 9.75 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
369
annual headline urban inflation declined in october and november 2021, to record 6.3 percent and 5.6 percent from 6.6 percent in september 2021, respectively.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
502
being keen on safeguarding the achieved macroeconomic stability, the cbe stresses on the importance of the exchange rate flexibility to act as a shock absorber to preserve egypt’s competitiveness.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
44
the downward trend in headline inflation comes on the back of the considerable decline in domestic food inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
532
in the meantime, while the widening trade deficit is stalling real gdp growth, investment remained positive for the fourth consecutive quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
106
in light of the above, the mpc decided to raise policy rates by 200 bps and reiterates that the path of future policy rates remains a function of forecasted inflation rather than prevailing inflation rates.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
558
information received since the mpc met in march show continued improvement of economic activity and a reduction of unemployment.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
259
from the monetary perspective, annual broad money growth has been strongly affected by revaluation effects of its foreign currency components.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
616
overall, the cbe believes that the balance of risks to price stability over the medium term is neutral.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,005
114
annual real gdp growth stabilized in 2018 q2 at the 5.4 percent rate registered in the previous quarter, which was mainly driven by net foreign demand as well as by domestic investment.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
795
reducing the country’s trade deficit by initiating a strategy aimed at encouraging local production to meet domestic market needs and enhance imports substitutions.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
338
the monthly developments in both headline and core inflation since the beginning of the year were largely driven by broad based increases in food and non‐food prices on the back of the recent movements in the exchange rate and diesel distribution bottlenecks across the country.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
155
with the gradual easing of previous shocks, inflationary pressures continued to subside, as annual headline and core inflation edged downward for the fifth consecutive month to reach 25.7 percent and 24.4 percent in july 2024, respectively.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
186
in its monthly meeting, held on september 1, 2005, the monetary policy committee (mpc) of the central bank of egypt (cbe) decided to narrow the width of the corridor from 3% to 2.5%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
222
the resulting exchange rate movements and significant passthrough of international commodity prices, coupled with domestic supply shocks, have resulted in persistent inflationary pressures driving headline inflation to record levels.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
162
labor market data show that the unemployment rate narrowed to 12.4 percent in 2016/17 q2, continuing its downward trend after peaking at 13.4 percent in 2013/14 q2.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
862
the annual rate of inflation declined in the first quarter of 2005.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
87
february 15,2018 in its meeting held on february 15, 2018, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to cut the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the central bank of egypt's (cbe) main operation by 100 basis points to 17.75 percent, 18.75 percent, and 18.25 percent, respectively.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
569
on the other hand, core cpi increased by 0.54 percent in may following the 0.85 percent in april, while the annual rate inched up to 8.81 percent from 8.76 percent recorded the previous month.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
164
leading indicators for 2022 q2 point towards normalized economic activity, as the strong positive base effect diminishes.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
90
domestically, real gdp growth softened to 2.2 percent in q1 2024 compared to 2.3 percent in q4 2023.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
843
real gdp growth increased slightly to 5.5 percent in 2018 q4 from 5.3 percent in 2018 q3, while the unemployment rate declined to 8.9 percent from 10.0 percent, registering its lowest level since december 2010.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
945
in its meeting held on december 14, 2006, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to raise its overnight deposit and overnight lending rates to 8.75 percent and 10.75 percent from 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
775
the reduction of policy rates in today’s and in previous meetings of the mpc provide appropriate support to economic activity, while remaining consistent with achieving the inflation target of 9 percent (±3 percentage points) in 2020 q4 and price stability over the medium-term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,019
762
on march 14, 2016, the cbe decided to adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime that better reflects the underlying forces of supply and demand and in order to correct the imbalances that affected the foreign exchange flows in the banking sector.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
354
meanwhile, the unemployment rate recorded 9.6 percent in 2020 q2 up from 7.7 percent in 2020 q1.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
748
in view of the above and building on previous mpc decisions, the committee judges that the current monetary stance is appropriate to support the sustained moderation of inflation, and will continue to assess its transmission to the economy in a datadriven manner.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
29
the re‐emergence of local supply bottlenecks and distortions in the distribution channels pose upside risks to the inflation outlook.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
840
the central bank of egypt decided to reduce its overnight deposit rate by25 basis points to 8.75 percent per annum.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
544
domestically, growth of real economic activity remained unchanged in 2023 q1 at 3.9 percent compared to the previous quarter, implying that the first nine months of fiscal year 2022/23 recorded 4.1 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
287
moreover, some leading indicators point towards a resumption of recovery towards their prepandemic levels.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
727
annual headline cpi remained largely unchanged at 11.06 percent in december 2015, despite the slight monthly decline of 0.09 percent (m/m).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
703
in its last meeting on february 15, 2018 the mpc began to ease its tight stance on interest rates that successfully managed to tame monthly inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
626
however, disruptions to global economic activity following the recent coronavirus outbreak could weigh on the global economic outlook, at least in the near term.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
446
however, commodity prices remain vulnerable to supply shocks stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
207
the contribution of real output growth by the private sector witnessed a broad-based increase in 2019 q2 for the first time since 2017 q2, and real private demand growth has been picking up to support the stability of real aggregate demand growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
466
the discount rate was also cut by 50 basis points to 9.25 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
605
growth of bank credit to the private sector is still running at a low level.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
75
on the other hand, core cpi accelerated by 2.82 percent in august leading to a jump in the annual rate to 8.16 percent with more than fifty percent driven by the prices of red meat and poultry.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
16
headline yearonyear inflation rose to 15.47 percent in august 2016 from 14.0 percent in july 2016 as the monthonmonth rate increased to 1.93 percent in august from 0.74 percent in july.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
428
maintaining price stability by avoiding double digit inflation rates over the mediumterm.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
98
meanwhile, partially offsetting this acceleration, is the decline in annual nonfood inflation to 4.9 percent in september 2021 from 5.3 percent in august 2021, which is the lowest recorded level since december 2012.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
960
while the impending global recession will impact exports of goods and services negatively, growth momentum that has been building up over the past three years will contribute to a soft landing for the egyptian economy, supported mainly by domestic demand.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,008
485
in the meantime, strong investment growth more than compensated for the negative contribution of net exports.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
538
in the meantime, core cpi declined by 0.23 percent in august compared to an increase of 0.30 in july, leading the annual rate to drop to 5.61 percent in august from 6.49 percent in july.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
572
furthermore, the negative contribution of net exports narrowed, mainly due to the recovery of exports which registered its first positive contribution to real gdp growth since 2014/15 q2, while the negative contribution of imports lessened.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
61
this brings the annual rate to 11.12 percent in september, after it increased to 11.49 percent in august up from 11.04 percent in july, on the back of the favorable base effect from the previous year.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
689
while the supply shortages related to fruits and vegetables in addition to red meat and poultry have largely eased during the past three months, their price increases since the beginning of 2010 continue to explain more than 40 percent of annual headline inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
615
job creation supported the decline of the unemployment rate to 9.9 percent in 2018 q2, the lowest rate since 2010 q4.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
976
headline yearonyear inflation rose to 12.30 percent in may 2016 from 10.27 percent in april, recording at 3.05 percent the highest monthly rate since july 2014.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
260
the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the central bank of egypt’s (cbe) overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation unchanged at 15.75 percent, 16.75 percent, and 16.25 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
948
the mpc continues to assess the impact of the frontloaded tightening policies in a datadriven manner, with recent inflation developments showing higher broadbased inflation across cpi items.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
518
annual urban headline inflation continued to increase recording 21.3 percent in december 2022.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
779
this outturn has been better than previously expected at the outset of the global financial crisis yet remains below the 7 percent average registered over the past three years.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
46
the mpc judges that interest rate increases are highly likely at this juncture.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,006
527
additionally, leading indicators for q3 2024 suggest that real economic activity is gradually recovering, and is expected to realize its full potential by fy 2025/26.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
377
annual headline urban inflation declined to 4.7 percent in may 2020 from 5.9 percent in april 2020, supported by muted inflationary pressures as well as favorable base effects where monthly headline inflation recorded zero in may 2020 compared to 1.1 percent in may 2019.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
5
these monthly developments were largely driven by bottlenecks in the distribution channels of butane gas cylinders, along with tame price increases in some food items that were outweighed by declines in others.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,012
956
the stabilization in the annual headline inflation rate came due to the combined effect of the higher annual contribution of food items, and the lower annual contribution of nonfood items.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
864
the discount rate was also raised by 50 bps to 11.5 percent per annum.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
861
the reduction in key policy rates in today’s mpc meeting provides appropriate support to economic activity, while remaining consistent with price stability over the medium term.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
48
while the cbe acknowledges that the tighter stance could result in a shortterm contraction in the private sector’s real credit growth, the persistence of excessive inflationary pressures poses greater risks to its stability.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
256