Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_egypt

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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in the meantime, investment levels remained low given the heightened uncertainty that faced market par�cipants since early 2011 and the weak credit growth to the private sector.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
511
against the above and despite sporadic increases in nonfood prices, underlying inflation pressures arising from the ongoing economic recovery remain contained.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
738
over the mediumterm, this has the potential to drive inflation above the upper level of the cbe's comfort zone.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,007
307
for international commodity prices, particularly energy, the outlook remains uncertain surrounding demand and supply over the medium term, especially that supply continues to be vulnerable to supply shocks stemming from geopolitical tensions.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
83
the downside risks to domestic gdp combined with the negative output gap since 2011 will limit upside risks to the inflation outlook going forward.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,014
488
nevertheless, given elevated monthly inflation rates, annual headline and core inflation registered 30.25 percent and 33.10 percent in february 2017, respectively.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
566
meanwhile, annual nonfood inflation declined to 5.6 percent in june 2021 from 6.3 percent in may 2021, which is its lowest recorded level since june 2014.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
317
in addition, annual core inflation increased to record 4.8 percent in september 2021 from 4.5 percent in august 2021.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
244
real gdp growth rose slightly to 5.5 percent in 2018 q4 from 5.3 percent in 2018 q3, while the unemployment rate declined to 8.9 percent from 10.0 percent, registering its lowest level since 2010 q4.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
713
in the meantime, annual core inflation inched up slightly to 3.7 percent in march 2021 from 3.6 percent in february 2021.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
403
globally, the expansion of economic activity stabilized, financial conditions and uncertainty regarding trade policies eased.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
357
the mpc believes that such a flexible monetary targeting framework is appropriate under the liberalized exchange rate regime.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
674
looking ahead, while upside risks to the inflation outlook are mitigated by contained imported inflation, in light of broadbased declines in international commodity prices, underlying domestic inflationary pressures could push up inflation expectations.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
119
the central bank of egypt decided to reduce its overnight deposit rate by 50 basis points to 8.25 percent per annum and cut the discount rate by one percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
72
despite the downside risks to the gdp outlook, the mpc judges that disanchored inflation expectations are more detrimental to the economy over the medium term.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,013
264
the increase was driven by higher prices of core food, retail items and services.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
914
exogenous factors that are outside the scope of monetary policy may lead to transitory deviations from preannounced target rates.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
359
meanwhile, in emerging economies the credit risk outlook has improved in anticipation of monetary easing cycles in advanced economies.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
169
the annual headline cpi inflation eased further in may 2007, recording 10 percent (y/y) compared to 12.8 percent (y/y) in march 2007.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
560
the overnight deposit and the overnight lending rates were kept at 9.5 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,005
531
these risks include the persistence of regional tensions, elevated international commodity prices, and higher than anticipated passthrough of fiscal measures.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
174
this trend underpins the mpc’s view that the annual headline cpi may have reached its peak.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,007
225
in addition, supply factors, chiefly the outbreak of avian flu as well as administered price adjustments, most importantly the july fuel price hike, have had varying degrees of initial costpush effects on inflation and the second round effects are becoming evident.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
575
on the other hand, externally, risks to global inflation are still skewed to the upside and uncertainty surrounds the international interest rate outlook.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,006
243
accordingly, higher annual non-food inflation led annual core inflation to increase slightly to 2.7 percent in october 2019 from 2.6 percent in september 2019, the lowest rate since april 2006.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
589
moreover, the annual inflation of services was mainly driven by expenditure on restaurants and cafes, while the increase in retail items was broadbased.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
556
over the nearterm, domestic economic activity is expected to be mainly driven by domestic demand, and in specific, gross domestic investments.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
677
the next meeting is scheduled on january 10, 2016.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,015
416
in its meeting held on april 28, 2016, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the cbe's main operation unchanged at 10.75 percent, 11.75 percent, and 11.25 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
893
despite persistent nonfood inflation, the significant decline in annual food inflation continues to drive down overall inflation and reflects a contained inflationary impact.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
872
based on the targeted reserve money and the inflation outlook assessed in the extraordinary mpc meeting on november 3, 2016, tightening monetary conditions was warranted, and the cbe raised its key policy rates by 300 basis points and absorbed excess liquidity via longerterm deposit auctions.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
883
hence, a rate hike is warranted.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
173
in its meeting held on february 1, 2007, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to maintain its overnight deposit and overnight lending rates at 8.75 percent and 10.75 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
120
while the supply shortages related to fruits and vegetables in addition to red meat and poultry have largely eased during the past two months, their price increases since the beginning of the year continue to explain more than half of annual headline inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
261
the main contributors to growth were the manufacturing, construction, real estate and tourism sectors, while the extractions sector remained weak.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
304
developments in the external environment show that there has been some firming of international commodity prices primarily due to higher oil prices while food price increases were relatively tame.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,017
913
furthermore, the mpc has noticed that in addition to manufacturing and construction, other sectors have started to record higher growth rates that may precipitate more inflationary pressures.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
512
moreover, the mpc is mindful of the underlying inflationary pressures which continue to tilt the balance of risks to the upside.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,008
973
this can be mainly attributed to the seasonal impact of eid aladha, the repercussions of the russoukrainian conflict, as well as, the indirect effects of higher prices of fuel products.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
127
however, it is important to emphasize that the sharp retrenchment in international commodity prices, which had begun since august 2008, has not been fully reflected in domestic price levels due to the downward price rigidities in domestic markets.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
313
the latest monthly developments in headline inflation were largely driven by higher prices of several domestic food items on the back of supply bottlenecks in the distribution channels, despite the decline in international food prices, in addition to the effect of eid festivities.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
841
economic growth in 2021 q2 was driven by the strong positive contributions of gross domestic investments as well as that of consumption.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
901
economic activity was affected by the impact of covid19 and its resulting containment measures.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
349
inflation is forecasted to hover around current levels until q4 2024 given the implemented and projected fiscal consolidation measures.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
830
this comes a�er the 2013/14 fiscal year real gdp growth rate recorded 2.2 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
156
the direct first round effect of these price adjustments will lead to a level shift up in the headline cpi for july 2014, while the indirect and second round effects could be reflected in both the headline and core inflation rates during the quarter ending september 2014 at varying degrees, which pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
723
this remains consistent with achieving the inflation target of 9 percent (±3 percentage points) in 2020 q4 and price stability over the medium term.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
322
in addition, labor market data show that the unemployment rate has slightly declined to record 6.7 percent in q1 2024 from 6.9 percent in q4 2023.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
687
this came despite the continuous weakness in the extraction sector.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,015
376
yet, ongoing uncertainties surrounding the projected slowdown of external demand pose downside risks to domestic economic growth.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
573
on the global front, forecasts for international commodity prices have slightly eased compared to those underlying the previous mpc meeting.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
385
annual headline inflation continued to decline in march and april 2018 to record 13.1 percent, while annual core inflation continued to decline in march to 11.6 percent and remained roughly unchanged in april.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
827
the acceleration in may 2021 was further driven by the higher annual contribution of volatile food items.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
755
in the meantime, growth was largely driven by consumption, in addition to a positive contribution of investment.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
721
furthermore, the ongoing recovery in the global economy coupled with the domestic fiscal and monetary measures undertaken so far will continue to provide a conducive environment for the domestic economy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,010
370
meanwhile, core inflation declined to 7.9 percent in november 2018 from 8.9 percent in october 2018, recording the lowest rate since february 2016.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
600
the latest monthly developments showed that the sharp food price increases witnessed in july and august due to the ramadan effect have moderated in september through october while annual adjustments in school tuition led to a further increase in nonfood prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
255
global economic growth has slowed down, with its outlook revised downwards compared to the previous meeting given the continued effect of policy rate increases by key central banks on demand.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
230
for the second consecutive month, the negative monthly inflation rate was largely due to lower prices of fruits and vegetables which have been the key drivers of headline inflation since february 2009.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
711
at this juncture, the mpc judges that the key cbe rates are currently appropriate given the balance of risks surrounding the inflation and gdp outlooks.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
877
on a sectoral level, tourism, nonpetroleum manufacturing and natural gas extractions contributed most towards growth in economic activity with private sector activity remaining the main contributor towards overall gdp growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
964
consequently, the mpc decided that current policy rates remain appropriate.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
771
in addition, the mpc decided to increase the required reserve ratio by 400 bps in september 2022.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
460
against this background, the mpc judged that a less restrictive monetary policy stance is required, at this juncture, in order to stabilize economic growth around its potential.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
111
headline cpi declined by 0.55 percent (m/m) in june following a 0.24 percent (m/m) decline in may, bringing the annual rate to 7.26 percent in june from 8.30 percent recorded in the previous month.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
122
the latest monthly developments in both headline and core inflation were largely driven by higher prices of several food items.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
345
furthermore, the committee will not hesitate to utilize all its available tools to attain a tight policy stance and calibrate liquidity conditions accordingly.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
634
this month's decline in core cpi coincided with significantly favorable base effects from last year which led the annual rate to drop to 3.84 percent from 5.34 percent in august.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
692
the central bank of egypt decided to raise its overnight deposit rate by 25 bps to 8.75 percent per annum.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,006
22
the headline cpi inflation maintained its upward trend escalating to 19.7% in may as domestic food inflation accelerated sharply to 27% and intensified further by the broadbased regulated price adjustments.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
780
in its meeting held on february 12, 2009, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to cut the overnight deposit and overnight lending rates by 100 bps to 10.5 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
668
egypt’s gdp growth is expected to recover albeit gradually, with structural measures expected to support economic activity.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
994
this mainly came on the back of continued weakening in the tourism, manufacturing, and construction sectors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
443
the central bank of egypt decided to reduce its overnight deposit rate by 50 basis points to 9% and its lending rate by 1% to 11.5% per annum.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
267
services have been also only contributing marginally to headline inflation since january 2017, except in may due to higher prices of pilgrimage.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
701
while annual food inflation is still increasing, it is being driven by volatile items as opposed to core food items in earlier months.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
926
in light of these risks and changes in macroeconomic dynamics, the reassessment of the cbe's inflation targets will be clearly communicated.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
170
the decision was based on an assessment of the recent economic developments, in particular the moderate reduction in inflationary pressures.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,005
272
central bank of egypt december 24th, 2020 the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the central bank of egypt’s (cbe) overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation unchanged at 8.25 percent, 9.25 percent, and 8.75 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
65
moreover, there is heightened uncertainty related to the global recovery on the back of higher international oil prices given political tensions in the region.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
151
the marked slowdown is primarily due to a contraction in gross domestic investments while net exports and consumption were the main drivers of growth in economic activity.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
756
looking ahead, unfolding global economic developments in europe have created uncertainty about the nascent global recovery, which could potentially weigh on external demand and investment in egypt.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
939
inflation in august was mainly driven by an upward adjustment of regulated prices due to higher electricity tariffs, as well as by the increase in prices of fresh vegetables.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
922
real gdp growth recorded a preliminary figure of 5.0 percent in 2020 q1 as expected, down from 5.6 percent in 2019 q4, as economic activity in the month of march 2020 was partially affected by the impact of covid19 and the resulting containment measures.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
451
annual headline cpi inflation remained largely unchanged at 13.3 percent in november 2009, reflecting the accumulated sharp acceleration in the prices of fruits and vegetables that had occurred between february and october 2009, which has accounted for more than 50 percent of the annual headline inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
391
in the meantime, annual core inflation registered 6.6 percent in november 2009 compared to 6.5 percent in october and remains within the cbe's comfort zone.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,009
204
over the past six weeks, turmoil in the global financial markets has severely intensified, leading many central banks in developed and emerging countries to intervene in their respective domestic markets using all tools available to ease liquidity shortages and ensure that their money markets are orderly functioning.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
229
august 5, 2021 the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the central bank of egypt’s (cbe) overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation unchanged at 8.25 percent, 9.25 percent, and 8.75 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
299
volatile food items, namely fruits and vegetables, continued to be the determining factor in the overall inflation outturn.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
276
in its meeting held on may 14, 2009, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to cut its overnight deposit rate by 50 bps to 9.5 percent and the overnight lending rate by 100 bps to 11 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,009
486
globally, the expansion of economic activity continued to weaken, financial conditions eased, and trade tensions continued to weigh on the outlook.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
534
the headline and core annual rates thereby registered in april 2018 the lowest since may and april 2016, respectively.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
978
the discount rate was also raised by 200 basis points to 19.25 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
884
moreover, the passthrough to domestic inflation from global financial market developments remained contained due to domestic policy measures that support improving macroeconomic fundamentals.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
541
and because the path for current policy rates remains a function of mediumterm inflation expectations rather than current inflation outturns, the mpc decided to cut key policy rates by 50 basis points.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
983
in addition to oil price developments, risks from the external economy continue to include the pace of tightening financial conditions.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
969
the growth of private investment continued to expand in 2016/17 for the third consecutive year, while public investment maintained its double digit growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
972
recent inflation dynamics since the special mpc on march 6, 2024 serve as an early indication of monthly dynamics normalizing to their usual pattern prior to march 2022.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
980
consequently, policy rates in major economies are expected to remain elevated.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
305
looking ahead, while investments in domestic mega projects are expected to contribute to economic growth, the downside risks and uncertainty that surround the global economy on the back of softening growth in emerging markets and challenges facing the euro area could pose downside risks to domestic gdp.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
348