Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_egypt

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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the committee is closely tracking the inflation risks that may arise from possible supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, among other factors.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
829
meanwhile, annual nonfood inflation increased slightly for the second consecutive month to 6.3 percent in may 2021 from 6.1 percent in april 2021.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
927
the mpc is watching these developments and is weighing the possible effects of the above on inflation in the near future.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,006
550
the discount rate was also kept unchanged at 12.75 percent.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
455
however, the stability of some leading indicators in august and july after signs of improvement in june point to a gradual recovery in economic activity.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
766
the ramadan effect exacerbated the impact of supply shortages in red meat and poultry witnessed since early 2010, which caused a surge in their prices during the past two months.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
574
accordingly, the acceleration in september 2021 was mainly driven by higher annual contribution of food items.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
421
looking ahead, while the upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook are mitigated by contained imported inflation, in light of the broadbased decline in international commodity prices, particularly given the latest global developments, potential underlying domestic inflationary pressures remain a concern.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
691
the favorable monthly developments in both headline and core inflation came on the back of declines in several food prices, despite sporadic increases in non‐food prices.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
690
the discount rate was also raised by 100 basis points to 9.75 percent.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
650
the annual rate increased to 9.65 percent in december from 8.93 percent registered in the previous month, largely led by unfavorable base effects.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
890
preliminary figures for 2023 q1 portray that economic activity is mainly supported by the positive contributions of tourism, agriculture and construction.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
954
against this background, the mpc assesses that inflationary pressures remain subdued and that the current level of policy interest rate is appropriate and supportive of the economic recovery while consistent with maintaining core inflation within the cbe's comfort zone in the mediumterm.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
585
leading indicators for 2023 q1 point towards a slowdown of real gdp growth.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
519
the inflation outlook remains in line with achieving the inflation target.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
520
achieving low and stable inflation over the medium term supports real incomes and sustains the achieved competitive gains of the egyptian economy.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
10
consequently, the mpc decided that raising policy rates by 200 basis points is warranted to anchor inflation expectations and set the policy rate at sufficiently restrictive levels, in order to ensure a decelerating inflation trend.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
206
the recent dampening of inflation dynamics generally suggests a normalization to their usual monthly pattern prior to march 2022.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
819
in the labor market, both employment and the labor force figures increased by similar magnitudes, therefore, the unemployment rate remained stable at 7.2 percent in 2022 q2.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
753
looking ahead, while investments in domestic mega projects such as the suez canal are expected to contribute to economic growth, the downside risks that surround the global recovery on the back of challenges facing the euro area and the softening growth in emerging markets could pose downside risks to domestic gdp going forward.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
491
the discount rate was also cut by 50 basis points to 9.75 percent.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
543
headline cpi increased by 1.69 percent in september after accelerating by 2.85 percent in august, while the annual rate remained broadly unchanged at 10.97 percent in september.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
666
headline cpi inched up by 1.23 percent (m/m) in september, following an increase of 1.09 percent and 3.51 percent (m/m) in august and july, respectively.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
308
the latest monthly developments in both headline and core inflation have been mainly driven by broad based increase in the prices of food items ahead of the holy month of ramadan.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
171
globally, monetary policy tightening cycles in advanced and emerging market economies have contributed to a decline in inflation worldwide, with select central banks continuing to cut interest rates as inflation approaches its target levels.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
45
the mpc closely monitors all economic developments and will not hesitate to adjust its stance to achieve its mandate of price stability over the medium term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
699
in the meantime, given the heightened uncertainty that faced market participants over the past year, investment levels remained low.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
139
real gdp growth continued to increase slightly to record a preliminary estimate of 5.7 percent in 2019 q2 and 5.6 percent in fiscal year 2018/19, the highest in eleven years.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,019
216
sectoral gdp growth was supported by the positive contributions of trade, construction and communication, while tourism and nonpetroleum manufacturing continue to weigh down on growth despite their recent pickup.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
366
monetary policy continued to support private domestic demand, which has outpaced net exports as the main driver of economic activity in the first three quarters of 2019, driven by the acceleration in private investment growth.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
176
thereafter, the pickup of economic growth was led by real estate, trade and construction sectors.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
920
the hardwon macroeconomic gains have provided the cbe with a strong toolkit to implement its monetary policy and maintain price stability over the medium term and with solid buffers to insulate the economy from excessive volatility.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
258
domestically, inflation rates continued to hold at moderate levels, despite the most recent inchup.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
49
prior to the russoukrainian war, domestic economic activity continued to expand in 2021 q4, recording a preliminary yearonyear growth rate of 8.3 percent, the second highest real gdp growth rate since 2002 q3.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
433
amendment to the mpc schedule the next monetary policy committee (mpc) meeting has been rescheduled to thursday october 5, 2006.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,006
930
global inflationary pressures have also eased as a result of a mix of factors, most notably the monetary policy tightening on the part of major central banks, the declining energy prices, and a reduction in global supply bottlenecks.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
946
moreover, the mpc is mindful of the underlying inflationary pressures.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
344
monetary policy stance given the monetary tightening since february, the mpc believes that the current level of the policy rate is supportive of disinflation.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
936
domestic demand contributed 4.8 percentage points to the 4.5 percent real gdp growth in the first half of 2015/16, while net external demand contributed negative 0.3 percentage points.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
824
nevertheless, upside risks to the predicted inflation path include regional geopolitical tensions, expected volatility in international commodity markets and the state of global financial conditions.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
741
annual food inflation increased in march 2021 after remaining stable in february 2021, reflecting higher annual contribution of volatile food items as well as core food items, but by a lesser extent, in line with their seasonal patterns.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
999
international oil prices recently increased and remain subject to volatility due to potential supplyside factors.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
855
the witnessed softening in economic growth is attributable to several factors most notably the impact of the russoukrainian conflict, as well as the diminishing of the positive base effect observed during the previous three quarters.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
751
in its meeting held on june 17, 2010, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate and overnight lending rate unchanged at 8.25 percent and 9.75 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
124
on the other hand, core cpi increased by 1.70 percent (m/m) in september after inching up by 0.14 percent in august, pushing the annual rate to 11.15 percent in september from 8.97 percent recorded in the previous month.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
242
the higher monthly inflation in january (4.07 percent) compared to december (3.13 percent) is estimated to be partly driven by relatively higher regular monthly dynamics as well as the introduction of higher custom tariffs in the end of 2016.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
161
the slight loosening in the policy stance is also motivated by downside risks to employment and economic growth.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
42
in its meeting held on may 10, 2007, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to maintain the overnight deposit and overnight lending rates at 8.75 percent and 10.75 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
621
the government has revised up the prices of several regulated items within the cpi basket including fuel, electricity, and tobacco as part of the 2014/2015 fiscal consolidation plan.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
524
against this background, the mpc decided that keeping policy rates unchanged remains consistent with achieving the inflation target of 7 percent (±2 percentage points) on average in 2022 q4 and price stability over the medium term.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
212
the decline continued to be supported by the containment of inflationary pressures as well as favorable base effects, as monthly inflation recorded 0.7 percent in august 2019 compared to 1.8 percent in august 2018.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
718
moreover, to prevent the exacerbation of external spillovers on the domestic economy, prudent and complementary monetary and fiscal policies will place the egyptian economy on a sustainable path to preserve macroeconomic stability, safeguard debt sustainability, and allow for the accumulation of foreign exchange buffers.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
262
meanwhile, real gdp grew by a mere 0.4 percent in 2011/2012 q2 after a similarly feeble growth of 0.3 percent in q1, following the significant contraction of 4.3 percent recorded in 2010/2011 q3 due to the political events in egypt and the region.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
91
the inflation outlook incorporated the recently implemented fiscal consolidation measures, that include reaching cost recovery for most fuel products as well as fuel price indexation to underlying costs.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
813
while the early days in february witnessed a marked increase in food prices driven by disruptions in production lines as well as transportation networks this was largely reversed in recent weeks.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,011
401
annual headline cpi declined to 10.59 percent in may from 11.38 percent registered in april 2010, yet remains elevated reflecting the impact of last year's unfavorable shock related to fruits and vegetables.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,010
761
by sector, the services sector was the highest contributor to economic growth, particularly construction and real estate, while tourism contributed negatively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
579
the mpc emphasizes that anchoring inflation expectations is critical and warrants this policy response to bring the real interest rate into positive territory.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
991
moreover, the money and foreign exchange markets have been operating in an orderly manner and remain very liquid.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,008
13
against this backdrop, egypt is intent on intensifying its reform agenda to secure macroeconomic stability and achieve strong, sustainable and inclusive growth.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
583
domestically, growth of real economic activity remained unchanged in 2023 q1 at 3.9 percent compared to the previous quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
458
meanwhile, real gdp grew by 5.2 percent in 2011/2012 q3, following feeble average growth rates of 0.35 percent in the first two quarters.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,012
966
in light of the above developments and given the cbe’s monetary policy horizon of its inflation target of 7 percent (±2 percentage points) on average in 2022 q4, the mpc decided to raise policy rates by 100 basis points to reign in inflationary pressures while supporting economic activity.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
673
meanwhile, real gdp grew by 2.4 percent in 2012/2013 h1, following a similarly feeble growth rate of 2.2 percent in 2011/2012.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,013
73
furthermore, the committee will continue to assess the balance of risks surrounding the inflation outlook.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
508
this decision was based on an assessment of recent domestic and external economic developments since the last mpc meeting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,006
592
meanwhile, the annual real gdp growth for 2009/10 q4 was revised downwards from 5.9 percent to 5.4 percent.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
938
moreover, broad money growth is strongly affected by the revaluation effects of its foreign currency components.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
581
accordingly, the annual rate decelerated to 11.39 percent in june from 13.11 percent in may, supported partially by the favorable base effect from the previous year.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
528
the committee reiterates that the path of future policy rates remains a function of inflation expectations rather than prevailing rates and will not hesitate to utilize all tools at its disposal to maintain the disinflation momentum and safeguard price stability over the medium term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
202
additionally, prospects of global economic recovery remain contingent on the efficacy of vaccines and the ability of countries to contain the spread of the virus, in light of the emergence of newer variants.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
232
moreover, the impact of the secondround effects on inflation remains to unfold over the coming months.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,008
777
meanwhile, the unemployment rate slightly declined to 7.1 percent in 2023 q1 compared to 7.2 percent in the previous quarter, mainly due to an increase in employment.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
138
the mpc will continue to closely monitor all economic developments and will not hesitate to utilize all available tools to achieve its price stability mandate over the medium term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
477
furthermore, despite edging down recently, global financial conditions have remained relatively tight as major central banks have continued to raise policy rates and reduce asset purchase programs with the aim of containing increased inflationary pressures in their respective countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
54
a significant decline in inflation is anticipated in h1 2025 due to the combined impact of recent monetary policy tightening, unification of the foreign exchange market, and favorable base effects.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
24
in the meantime, given the heightened uncertainty that faced market participants over the past year, investment levels con�nued to deteriorate recording an annual retrenchment of 11.4 percent in 2011/2012 q1.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,012
427
favorable base effects have been accelerating the decline of annual inflation rates since november 2017.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
774
annual headline and core inflation continued to decline to record 8.7 percent and 5.9 percent in july 2019, respectively, the lowest rates in almost four years, notwithstanding the recently implemented fiscal consolidation measures that reached cost recovery for most fuel products.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
925
meanwhile, the unemployment rate stabilized at 7.4 percent during 2021 q1 compared to 7.2 percent during the previous quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
107
this comes on the backdrop of the decline in international food prices (particularly wheat), imposing a temporary ban on local rice exports and scrapping import tariffs on some basic staple food products.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,008
297
the mpc reiterates that the path of future policy rates remains a function of inflation expectations rather than prevailing rates and will not hesitate to utilize all tools at its disposal to ensure that the policy stance is set at sufficiently restrictive levels, allow for a sustained decline in underlying inflation, and safeguard price stability over the medium term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
143
annual food inflation increased for the fourth consecutive month to 6.6 percent in august 2021 from 4.8 percent in july 2021.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
153
however, key central banks are expected to uphold a tight monetary policy stance for an extended period due to uncertainty surrounding the inflation path and upside risks to inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
759
globally, economic activity remains subdued despite the accommodative financial conditions, as the outbreak of the second wave of covid19 pandemic and its related lockdown measures weigh on the nearterm outlook.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
640
output remained unfavorably impacted by domestic as well as external factors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
818
in the meantime, given the heightened uncertainty that faced market participants since early 2011, investment levels remained low.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,013
20
in addition, forecasts for headline inflation in key global economies have been revised downwards compared to the june mpc meeting, despite remaining above their respective target levels.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
548
in its meeting held on july 5, 2007, the monetary policy committee (mpc) decided to maintain the overnight deposit and overnight lending rates at 8.75 percent and 10.75 percent, respectively.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,007
284
real gdp growth continued to increase for the third consecutive quarter to record 5.0 percent at market prices in 2016/17 q4, thereby averaging 4.6 percent in the second half of 2016/17, growing at the fastest pace since 2009/2010.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
638
global financial conditions are expected to remain accommodative and supportive of economic activity over the medium term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
394
this coupled with increased uncertainty about the nascent global recovery could potentially weigh on domestic economic activity going forward.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,010
425
against the above background, the slowdown in economic growth should limit upside risks to the inflation outlook.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,011
347
the acceleration in the prices of red meat and poultry have accounted for 60 percent of annual core inflation between july and september.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
57
the mpc reiterates that the path of future policy rates remains a function of inflation expectations, rather than of prevailing inflation rates and will continue to pursue its price stability mandate.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
182
moreover, there are concerns related to the global recovery on the back of renewed worries regarding fiscal challenges facing the euro area.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,011
974
in the meantime, annual core inflation inched up to 6.85 percent in december compared to 6.59 percent in november on the back of the unfavorable base effects from last year and remains within the cbe's comfort zone.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,010
757
monthly headline inflation in june 2016 came mainly on the back of higher prices of volatile food items, in addition to core food items, particularly red meat and poultry.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
183
the mpc reiterates that the path of future policy rates remains a function of inflation expectations rather than of prevailing inflation rates.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
319
the central bank of egypt sets its deposit rate at 9.5 % per annum.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,005
835