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meanwhile, the domestic economy is likely to remain below potential till a decisive recovery is seen in singapore’s export markets. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 265 |
this policy stance, which has been in place since january 2015, was assessed to be appropriate in view of the moderate growth and inflation prospects. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 374 |
within manufacturing, the transport engineering and some precision engineering clusters will be hampered by the cutback in oil exploration activities, while the weakness in it production and its supporting industries will also persist due to tepid final demand and ongoing corporate restructuring. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 769 |
however, a number of risk factors have recently emerged. | irrelevant | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,007 | 825 |
the singapore economy should benefit from the strengthening external environment for the rest of the year and into 2004. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 715 |
singapore’s gdp was unchanged on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted basis in q2 2022, compared to the 0.9% expansion in q1, according to the advance estimates released by the ministry of trade and industry today. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 834 |
nonetheless, certain industries, such as transport & storage, information & communications, and bank intermediation, continued to hold up, providing some support to gdp growth. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 417 |
the for the singapore economy has become less favourable since mid-2002, as the external environment deteriorated. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 730 |
in the meantime, cpi inflation has slowed significantly to 2.4% year-on-year in jan-feb 2009, from 5.4% in q4 last year. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 791 |
however, there is significant uncertainty around the economic , reflecting continuing risks in the external environment. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 881 |
in our assessment, the current level of the s$neer is appropriate for maintaining domestic price stability over the medium term, taking into account the prospects for growth in the singapore economy. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 752 |
the external inflation environment is likely to remain benign, while the slack labour market and excess capacity in the economy should help restrain domestic cost pressures, particularly in consumer services. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,003 | 667 |
since the last statement in october, developments in the global and domestic inflation environment have led to a significant shift in singapore’s cpi inflation for 2015. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 880 |
in services, retail and food services saw some pullback in activity after the pickup in q4 last year, while business services posted further growth. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 187 |
the fall in global oil prices resulted in overall import prices declining by an average of 6.5% y-o-y in oct–nov 2014, the steepest correction since q3 2009. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 535 |
domestically, the labour market remains tight. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 195 |
in its july 2022 statement, mas re-centred the mid-point of the singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (s$neer) policy band up to the then-prevailing level of the s$neer. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 356 |
in the near term, the pass-through of cost increases from both external and domestic sources will continue, albeit at a more moderate pace. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 27 |
in 2011, the domestic economy will continue to expand but at a more sustainable rate in line with its growth potential. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 555 |
however, activity in travel-related services will still be short of pre-pandemic levels. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 995 |
external sources of inflation will stay benign given ample supply buffers in the commodity markets and weak global demand conditions. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,016 | 99 |
the rise in the headline cpi figure was largely due to the effects of the oil shock and increases in several administrative charges during the year. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 882 |
for 2021 as a whole, mas core inflation will come in near the upper end of the 0–1% forecast range, and is expected to increase further to 1–2% in 2022. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 504 |
mas had adopted a modest and gradual appreciation path for the s$neer policy band since april 2010. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 810 |
it is expected to pick up modestly in 2020, although this projection is subject to considerable uncertainty in the external environment. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 452 |
the construction sector has also recovered from a protracted period of weakness. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 602 |
the cpi for airfares has also increased sharply, mostly reflecting the cost of covid-19 testing requirements for international travel. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 631 |
for the whole of 2009, the cpi inflation forecast is unchanged at -1% to 0%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 410 |
barring a setback in global trade, growth in the singapore economy should continue at a broadly steady pace in the quarters ahead. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 321 |
according to the advance estimates released by the ministry of trade and industry today, the singapore economy contracted by 4.1% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis in q3 2016, following the marginal 0.2% expansion in q2. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 28 |
in q3, advance estimates released by the ministry of trade and industry pointed to a moderation in economic momentum, largely on account of a pullback in some asset market-related activities. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 951 |
the outbreak of covid-19 domestically and abroad has weighed on a broad spectrum of economic activities. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 630 |
the mas will therefore maintain a zero percent appreciation path for the policy band, centred on the current level of the s$neer. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 898 |
mas core inflation, which excludes the costs of private road transport and accommodation, remained subdued at 0.3% y-o-y in july-august 2015, following the 0.2% registered in q2. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 456 |
the construction sector also remained on a recovery path, and grew for the third consecutive quarter in q3. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 447 |
the policy has been appropriate in creating conditions conducive for growth while keeping inflationary pressures in check. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 499 |
against these developments, the singapore economy will experience modest growth of 1-3% in 2012. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,012 | 436 |
the unemployment rate is expected to ease through the year and average around 3.5%, compared to 4.0% in 2004. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,005 | 772 |
the three-month s$ sibor rose from 1.1% as at end-october 2017 to 1.5% at the end of the year, before falling in january 2018. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 644 |
on the domestic front, labour market conditions remain firm and will support moderate wage increases, such that unit labour costs should continue to rise. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 213 |
shocks to global food and energy prices, or stronger-than-expected demand for labour in the domestic economy, could bring about additional inflationary pressures. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 220 |
however, mas core inflation is likely to remain firm, given cost pressures from the tight labour market and higher prices of food imports from the region. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 11 |
the decline was concentrated in the manufacturing sector, reflecting sluggish external conditions. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 806 |
the latest surge in energy and agricultural commodity prices will raise domestic inflation for electricity & gas, fuel and non-cooked food over the year. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 249 |
at the beginning of 2002, mas announced that it would maintain a zero per cent appreciation path for the exchange rate policy band, centred on the level of the trade-weighted singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (s$neer) prevailing at that time. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 482 |
there was no change to the width of the policy band or the level at which it was centred. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 389 |
this mainly reflected higher coe premiums and the imputed rental cost of owner-occupied housing, which is the largest component of accommodation costs in the cpi. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,011 | 746 |
while inflation is still elevated, mas’ five successive tightening moves since october 2021 have tempered the momentum of price increases. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 121 |
the slowdown in the us economy and weakening global electronics demand will affect our manufacturing sector. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 952 |
for the rest of 2009 and into 2010, cpi inflation will continue to be driven by external factors, especially higher oil and food commodity prices in world markets. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,009 | 231 |
unit labour costs are expected to show a moderate rise of 3-5%. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 129 |
gdp growth is therefore on track to come in at the upper end of the 7-8% forecast range this year, up from the 4.5-6.5% forecast during the april review. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 36 |
in comparison, domestic inflationary pressures have picked up as businesses pass on more of accumulated cost increases to consumer prices, following the relatively weak pass-through in earlier quarters. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,013 | 76 |
in comparison, year-on-year, gdp rose by an estimated 4.3% in q1 2018, following growth of 3.6% for 2017 as a whole. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 41 |
energy prices have risen further while imported food inflation remains elevated due to regional supply disruptions. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 479 |
private transport and accommodation costs have risen by more than expected in the first two months of the year, reflecting in part the effects of higher petrol prices and firm demand for cars and rental accommodation. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 387 |
the domestic labour market should continue to tighten and lead to strengthened wage pressures. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 96 |
s$ nominal effective exchange rate (s$neer) apart from brief periods of decline, the s$neer has appreciated in the upper half of the policy band since april 2018. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 463 |
s$ nominal effective exchange rate (s$neer) the s$neer has appreciated in the upper half of the policy band since october 2018. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 360 |
at the same time, the transport engineering and selected precision engineering clusters within manufacturing will be hampered further by weak demand for oil exploration and production equipment. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 609 |
against continuing weakness and uncertainties in the external economic environment, the strength of the recovery in the singapore economy is expected to be moderate beyond the initial uplift. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,009 | 618 |
the mid-point of the singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (s$neer) policy band was re-centred up to the then-prevailing level of the s$neer near the top of the band. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 871 |
however, a sharper-than-expected downturn in the global economy could induce a general easing of cost and price pressures. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 971 |
excluding the impact of the increase in the gst rate in january, headline inflation is forecast at 2.5–3.5%. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 82 |
in comparison, the construction sector expanded strongly in q1 2015, bolstered by the residential building segment. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,015 | 3 |
mas core inflation will rise modestly from around 1% this year to average 1–2% in 2017, amid emerging slack in the labour market and generally subdued consumer sentiment. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 552 |
while the global economy is expected to continue on its recovery path in 2022, it will do so at a more moderate pace than earlier projected. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,022 | 355 |
after initially strengthening in january and february, the s$neer eased somewhat, fluctuating within a relatively narrow range in the second quarter of the year. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 19 |
the emergence of slack in domestic factor markets would lead to some disinflationary pressures in the economy. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 551 |
cpi-all items inflation is projected to be about 0.5% in 2018 before picking up to 1–2% in 2019. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 557 |
this below-trend pace of growth will cause the positive output gap at end-2022 to turn slightly negative this year. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 468 |
the singapore economy should expand at a moderate pace in the quarters ahead. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,014 | 474 |
cpi-all items inflation is now projected to average 2.0–3.0% this year, down from the previous forecast of 2.5–3.5%, mainly reflecting lower-than-anticipated private transport inflation in recent months. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 343 |
however, economy-wide cost pressures should remain relatively restrained. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,017 | 228 |
however, there were partial offsets from other growing areas in the economy, including tourism-related activities and public infrastructure construction. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 332 |
the s$neer peaked in early august, and has more recently depreciated towards the mid-point of the policy band. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 2 |
car prices are likely to be largely unchanged as households hold back on expenditure that require large financial outlays. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 166 |
the advance estimates released by the ministry of trade and industry today show that singapore’s gdp declined by 6.3% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis in q3 2008. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 641 |
in october 2015, mas kept the singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (s$neer) policy band on a modest and gradual appreciation path, but reduced its rate of appreciation slightly. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 484 |
s$ nominal effective exchange rate (s$neer) since the april 2017 mps, the s$neer has fluctuated around a strengthening trend in the upper half of the policy band. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,017 | 651 |
the recent weakness of the singapore dollar, especially against the us dollar, has prompted speculation that mas has shifted its policy stance on the exchange rate. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 782 |
on the domestic front, the decline in manufacturing exports and production appears to be levelling off. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,002 | 854 |
singapore’s gdp picked up in q3 2020 after its sharp contraction in the previous quarter. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 902 |
against this backdrop, and in view of the surge in growth seen in q1, singapore’s gdp growth forecast for 2010 has been revised upwards to between 7% and 9%, from 4.5% and 6.5%. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 1 |
at the same time, cpi inflation has increased and is expected to remain elevated in the first half of this year. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,008 | 923 |
core inflation should end the year around 2%, and average between 2.5%–3.0% for 2024 as a whole, down from 4.2% in 2023. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 958 |
the rebound in economic growth in 2000 was broad-based across the major sectors of the economy. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,001 | 809 |
the average level of the s$neer over the last six months has been higher than that in the six months prior to april, notwithstanding the 0% slope in the s$neer policy band. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,016 | 180 |
the external environment has also turned more favourable, with clearer indications of an upturn in the g3 economies, while the global it indicators have continued to improve. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 874 |
singapore’s manufacturing sector and export-oriented services industries should improve gradually over the course of the year. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,013 | 346 |
externally, food commodity prices have risen, in part due to the recent supply disruptions. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,010 | 856 |
the advance gdp estimates released by the ministry of trade and industry on 10 july 2002 show that the recovery momentum has been maintained, with real gdp growth estimated at 10.3% (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted annualised rate or saar) in q2 2002, higher than the revised growth rate of 8.4% in q1. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,002 | 765 |
in h1 2003, the singapore economy has performed poorer than expected at the start of the year. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,003 | 975 |
the manufacturing sector recorded its fourth consecutive quarter of contraction, with lacklustre performances across most segments except for the biomedical and precision engineering industries. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 643 |
both the trade-related cluster and the modern services sectors contracted. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 800 |
however, economic activity in asia is expected to remain fairly resilient in the near term, reflecting strong domestic demand and regional trade flows. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,008 | 188 |
the appreciation of the s$neer, coupled with the rise in domestic interest rates, has led to a significant tightening in domestic liquidity conditions since late 2005. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,006 | 671 |
in recent weeks, as economic prospects have declined, the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate (s$neer) has gradually weakened, and is now in the lower half of the policy band. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,001 | 471 |
mas core inflation is likely to remain below its historical average in the near and medium term. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 533 |
the three-month domestic interbank interest rate fell from 3.5% at end-february to 2.5% in june. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,007 | 113 |
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