Datasets:

gtfintechlab
/

bank_of_korea

sentences stringlengths 39 700	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
first, there must be a stabilization of the foreign exchange market.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	705
members assessed that, despite a recovery in private consumption, driven by face-to-face service consumption and ongoing favorable labor conditions, domestic economic growth was slowing due mainly to sluggish investment as well as slowing export growth stemming from a weakening of economic growth in major countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	921
the member noted that, amid sluggish demand from major trading partners for goods imports, exports had remained sluggish affected by a slowdown in the global semiconductor industry.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	158
as for the global financial markets, members judged that, as risk aversion had increased, due for instance to the escalation of the us-china trade dispute, stock prices had fallen and the currencies of emerging economies had depreciated.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	654
the member added that retail sales and construction investment were improving, facilities investment was sustaining a strong recovery, and export growth was increasing.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	822
the member thus saw the need to take active policy measures to deal with this issue.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	43
one member took the view that it would be desirable to keep the base rate at its current level at this meeting, as the downside risks to the real economic growth path had expanded somewhat of late, acceleration in price inflation was still modest, and the downside risks to the growth path for next year had increased slightly.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	189
the member, however, argued that, in this process, consumer price inflation would be likely to exhibit high volatility in monthly terms due mainly to a base-period effect, which could cause confusion in the formation of inflation expectations.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	869
one member, meanwhile, expressed the opinion that it would be appropriate to hold the base rate at its current level of 1.25 percent for the intermeeting period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	987
- looking at the korean economy, while export growth has slowed somewhat the committee judges that the recovery of domestic demand has not been strong and the sentiments of economic agents remain weak.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,015	467
meanwhile, one other member asserted that, although the possibility of debt deflation occurring as suggested recently in some circles was evaluated as not high, the household debt- and real estate-related issues—factors to which the korean economy was structurally vulnerable— posed the risk of escalation to ignite a crisis at any time, and so measures to resolve them must be sought with continued interest in the future.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	257
this member went on to note that, while the trend of a narrowing of the price gap itself had not changed, there was a possibility that its pace would be quite moderate.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	658
the moderate economic recovery in the us to have been sustained but the sluggishness of economic activities in the euro area to have continued, while economic growth in emerging market countries such as china has slowed somewhat.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	754
the member thus noted that it was necessary to prevent, as much as possible, the coronavirus shock from leading to permanent damage to the foundation for growth.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	632
the member also stated the view that the creation of new demand was limited because economic sentiment was souring amid economic uncertainty despite the government’s economic stimulus policies, such as fiscal front-loading and the extension of the cut in the individual consumption tax.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	426
one other member also put forward the view that it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, and added that there was a need to closely examine whether the channels of transmission of the august base rate cut were functioning properly.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	288
however, due to high interest rates and inflation, consumer and investment capacity has weakened, exacerbating the imbalance between domestic demand and exports, and sectoral differentiation in the labor market is also happening.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	70
in global financial markets, the rise in stock prices in major countries has moderated as risk-taking tendencies were offset by factors such as inflation concerns.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	167
the trend of economic growth was generally not expected to deviate far from the path forecast last july.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	102
labor market conditions have continued to be favorable with a low unemployment rate, despite a slowing increase in the number of persons employed.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	250
the member meanwhile assessed that, when making a simple comparison among major oecd countries with respect to the combined effects on gdp growth of fiscal stimulus for this year and of recent policy rate changes, korea was implementing the most expansionary macroeconomic policy.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	832
in local financial markets, however, financial conditions have continuously eased, with falling short- and long-term interest rates and a stock price rally.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	916
long-term market interest rates have rebounded slightly, after having declined.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	763
improvement in the growth rate, in particular, is a factor adding to demand side inflation pressures, and, in this regard, its impact on disinflation needs to be closely monitored.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	84
the member noted, however, that a sharp correction in housing prices amid rising delinquencies in loans to the real estate sector could lead to an increase in credit risks and to financial market instability.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	295
the member expected consumer price inflation to far exceed the path projected in february, as impacts of rises in commodity prices and global supply disruptions, the two factors working to increase prices since the second half of last year, had grown since the outbreak of the ukraine crisis.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	125
the member noted that financial unrest could spread, as seen in unrest in the asset-backed securities market and the shrinkage of the credit bond market, as a slowdown in the real estate market and the weakening of investor sentiment would continue for some time.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	845
the member took the view that most economic indicators had been shifting to a downward trend and china’s economic slowdown could worsen in the course of trade conflicts and debt restructuring, which made it difficult to take an optimistic view of future economic conditions.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	191
the member thus stated that it would be desirable to continue to reduce the degree of monetary policy accommodation to stabilize consumer price inflation at the target level over a medium-term horizon.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	617
concerning the domestic financial markets members noted that, with the inflows of securities investment funds of foreigners continuing, interest rates had fallen, stock prices had risen, and the korean won had appreciated.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	64
the member expected that the sustained accommodative stance, combined with the expansionary fiscal policy, would contribute to driving demand-side pressures and maintaining inflation expectations.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	709
in the housing market the uptrend of sales prices has slowed, centering around seoul and its surrounding areas, while leasehold deposit prices have continued to rise at a pace similar to that in october.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	247
some members mentioned that, despite slowed growth in household lending due to rate hikes and stronger regulations, corporate lending had been showing strong growth, and it would be therefore necessary to pay attention to financial imbalances stemming from increased leverage in the private sector.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	434
the main details of the mpb members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the changes in the domestic and international financial and economic environments, it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level of 1.25 percent for the intermeeting period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	362
as a result, the output gap was estimated to have become less negative.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,017	215
looking at domestic demand, the member expressed the opinion that retail sales were estimated not to have recovered from the decline seen since september and services production remained unchanged, together implying a slowdown in the recovery of private consumption.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	879
the member projected that gdp growth for this year would be similar to the previous forecast, but the economic slowdown was likely to deepen somewhat next year.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	985
accordingly, the member noted that it would be better to keep the base rate unchanged from the current level of 1.25 percent for the intermeeting period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	652
the member’s further argument was that attention should be paid to the suggestion by some that, if the us economy improved, boosted for example by the biden administration’s fiscal policy, and inflation pressure increased, the federal reserve might change its monetary policy stance sooner than expected.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	316
the member also noted that there would be a need to ensure space for monetary policy to some extent to prepare for a possibility of underlying low economic growth and the future economic cycle.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	489
the member presented the view that, therefore, it was appropriate to respond first by adopting microprudential policy.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,018	89
the member saw that such shocks would likely have only limited impacts on growth during the course of world economic recovery, but expected the extent and duration of global inflation to increase further, due to rising international commodity prices and worsening global supply chain disruptions.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	977
the member, meanwhile, forecast that as global financial market conditions were expected to remain accommodative with a diminishing likelihood of the u.s. federal reserve further tightening, countries would likely show increasingly diverging policy stances from now on depending on their own economic conditions.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	199
the member judged that, given the current inflation situation and the strong recovery of the real economy, however, it would be desirable to respond to underlying inflation pressure that had become more pronounced.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	277
the korean won has fluctuated within a narrow range, after having appreciated owing chiefly to the easing of financial unrest in emerging market countries.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	878
taking these domestic and overseas developments into consideration, the member cited the following as the major reasons for the judgment that the base rate should be kept unchanged.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	789
most members evaluated the recent domestic economy as sustaining its solid upward path, led by strong export growth and the steady increase in domestic demand.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	408
meanwhile, one member mentioned that real estate prices remained weak in seoul and its surrounding areas while their uptrend in the rest of the country was subsiding to some degree, and that their pace would slow further in the coming months—mostly on the weakening economic recovery and the expansion in supply of apartments, particularly small and medium-sized units.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	865
the member went on to state that the overall slack in the labor market had improved slightly in july, but such slack was concentrated among vulnerable groups, such as manufacturing workers and the younger generation, and attention should be paid to the possibility that factors such as corporate restructuring could undermine future improvements in the labor market.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	148
meanwhile, one other member noted that, although a look at changes in financial and economic conditions at home and abroad over the past one month showed that there had been no large changes in the price path, the growth path was judged to have been adjusted slightly downward, affected for instance by the mers outbreak and sluggish exports.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	894
more specifically, there is a higher likelihood of housing sale prices becoming more sensitive to lending rates, as household liquidity holdings have increased and recent housing transactions have been mostly driven by non-speculative demand.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	37
considering these factors, he expressed the opinion that it would be best to maintain the base rate at its present level for the intermeeting period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	776
in this process it will judge whether to adjust the degree of monetary policy accommodation, while closely examining any changes in macroeconomic and financial stability conditions.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	380
concerning fx swap and fx market stability, meanwhile, the member’s assessment was that overall market conditions had remained normal and stable, with capital flows and prices reflecting real economic conditions, while the sustained geopolitical risk and the us federal reserve’s rate hike stance had only limited effects on the flows of global investment funds into korea and related price variables.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	851
the member mentioned that this forecast implied that the factors that had negatively affected the domestic economy in the first quarter would not do so or would even positively affect the korean economy going forward.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	697
in this process it will thoroughly assess developments related to the pandemic, the impact on the economy and financial markets here and abroad, changes in financial stability such as household debt growth, and the effects of the policy measures taken in response to the pandemic.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	814
members also mentioned that household debt was expected to stabilize, thanks for example to government measures, but its growth had continued to outpace that of household income, while sole proprietor loans had also maintained strong growth, all of which required constant attention.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	904
the member took the view that, in overall consideration of growth, price and financial conditions of the korean economy, it would be appropriate to maintain the base rate hike stance to respond to underlying sources of inflationary pressures, while taking microeconomic stabilizing measures to deal with market unrest.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	252
the member also expected that core inflation excluding administered prices would also come in at the upper-1% level, and estimated that core inflation felt by the general public would be higher when taking into account the recent sharp rise in owners’ equivalent rent that is excluded from the consumer price statistics.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	929
with regard to the domestic financial markets, many members assessed the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to have all exhibited stable movements, with the soothing of market sentiment and inflows of foreigners’ portfolio investment funds driven chiefly by the additional quantitative easing policies of major advanced countries and korea’s sovereign rating upgrade.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	611
the member added that it would be necessary to preemptively come up with financial support measures for vulnerable borrowers with weak debt-servicing capacity and smes with little access to financial services.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	500
in terms of inflation, members noted that consumer price inflation had risen to the lower-5% level during january, driven by an increase in processed food prices and hikes in public utility fees.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	163
accordingly, the member pointed out the need to keep a careful watch on developments such as political uncertainties in the us, and risks related to north korea’s nuclear tests.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	280
as for the global financial markets, members mentioned that the volatility of stock prices and exchange rates in the us and other advanced economies (aes) had increased, but the financial unrest in some emerging market economies (emes) had eased.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	942
the member noted that, more specifically, the housing price growth rate based on the housing price index had stood at 1.1% in 2018 and –0.4% in 2019, and housing prices outside of the seoul metropolitan area in particular had continued to fall for the second consecutive year, suggesting that an overall housing price surge related to liquidity conditions was not materializing.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	596
long-term government bond yields in major economies, which had fallen in anticipation of a rate cut by the federal reserve, rose again due to factors such as economic indicators surpassing market expectations, and the u.s. dollar also showed strength.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	604
the member went on to note that the decision in november 2015 to include the yuan in the sdr currency basket was a consequence of the chinese government’s phase-in implementation of its medium-to-long-term plan to make the yuan an international currency.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	217
the member took the view that, considering the need to preemptively adjust monetary policy in a situation where heightened north korea risk had not produced any noticeable shocks on the real economy, this seemed the right time to adjust the degree of monetary easing.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	395
third, the member evaluated that, despite the three base rate hikes since august last year, monetary policy still remained accommodative.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	997
the member added that a more accommodative fiscal policy would be underway this year, enhancing the contribution of fiscal expenditure to growth.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	475
the member stated that spillover effects of changes in non-core inflation on core inflation could persist for some time due to remaining pressure of increasing costs so far, regardless of demand-side pressure.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	203
another member expressed the opinion that it would be advisable to keep the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period because, if the changes in the domestic and international financial and economic situation over the previous month were looked at comprehensively, economic activity and consumer prices were judged to have not strayed far from the path forecast in april, and considering the uncertainties surrounding domestic and foreign economic movements and the possibility of heightened international financial market volatility, there was a need to secure room for future monetary policy maneuver.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	850
the member commented that this showed that low inflationary pressures on the demand side were a major cause of the low inflation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	963
one member assessed that, although domestic foreign exchange market volatility had risen considerably over the previous three months, it was markedly improved compared to the time of the global financial crisis in 2008, and attributed this mostly to the strengthened fundamentals of the korean economy, to the improved external debt profile, and to the expanded sizes of korea’s currency swap arrangements with japan and china.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	982
the base rate cut and the economic policies of the government including the supplementary budget, strive to improve the sentiments of economic agents and lower inflation expectations, and conduct monetary policy so as to keep consumer price inflation within the inflation target range over a medium-term horizon while ensuring that the growth potential is not eroded due to the continuation of slow growth.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	445
the member assessed that the global economy had continued to recover as in the previous year, but the pace of recovery had been slowing recently affected largely by the spread of omicron, and inflation had continued to grow in major countries owing to the further uptrend in energy prices and prolonged disruptions in global supply chains.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	507
the member then argued that it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level of 1.50% for the intermeeting period, while more closely monitoring major factors affecting the growth and stability of the korean economy.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	645
the member judged that, although there had been ups and downs in the monthly data, from a broader perspective exports had remained favorable and consumption had maintained steady growth, despite significant corrections in investment, and the growth rate had generally remained close to its potential level.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	196
the member also expressed the view that, with the risk aversion tendencies in the domestic and overseas financial markets having strengthened, stock prices had fallen and eme currencies including the korean won had weakened, and as a result, household and corporate economic sentiment had weakened.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	708
the member took the view that, given pent-up service demand since the outbreak of the pandemic and growth in surplus saving so far, there was an underlying trend of recovery in solid consumption demand.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	785
one member noted that now was the moment when providing some momentum for the restoration of confidence was necessary, since the pace of economic recovery was judged to be still unsatisfactory and the economic slowdown had become prolonged, due particularly to a massive weakening in confidence of economic agents, while prices were seen likely to sustain a low rate of increase below the inflation target for the time being.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	423
5-year treasury bond yields in korea and the us had been inverted since mid-december 2016, following 10-year treasury bond yields.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	683
concerning the domestic economy, members’ evaluation was that the adjustments in facilities and construction investment had continued, exports had seen a greater decline, and employment conditions in the private sector had continued to be sluggish.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	415
the member emphasized that efforts to normalize funding costs and policy cooperation among the relevant authorities should be strengthened.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	895
the member indicated that the semiconductor industry appeared to be bottoming out, boosted by production cuts at major suppliers and by ai-related demand.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	693
concerning the financial markets, the member pointed out that risk preferences had been weakening somewhat, with interest rates rising substantially and stock prices falling on the back of strengthening expectations of policy rate hikes at home and abroad, while m2 growth had accelerated led by the expansion in private-sector credit supply.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	993
the member noted that, although the effects of monetary policy seemed to have weakened compared to those in the past, effects from both fiscal and monetary macroeconomic policy still clearly existed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	781
the member noted that, since last monetary policy decision meeting, inflation had remained in the mid-0% range and some indicators of inflation expectations had been responding to this.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	400
government bond yields and stock prices in major countries have fallen while the currencies of emerging economies have depreciated, in line mainly with the escalation of the us-china trade dispute and the sluggishness of economic indicators in major countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	132
with respect to employment, many members evaluated the employment situation as continuing to improve, with the gradual increase in number of persons employed, particularly in the private sector.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,010	55
members also evaluated that, with respect to the global financial markets, with major advanced countries adopting diverging monetary policy stances, global financial market volatility had been increasing due to concerns about an escalation of the us-china trade dispute, and that attention needed to be paid to the possibility of tougher financial market conditions in line with the rising cost of raising dollars in the short term.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	981
regarding international financial markets, the member noted that major price variables fluctuated substantially, influenced largely by changing expectations of the u.s. federal reserve’s monetary policy and political uncertainties in the u.s. and europe.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	847
another member pointed out that with the delayed recoveries of the u.s. and other advanced economies, a hike in global oil prices and household loan defaults might have a negative effect on the domestic economic recovery.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	193
as a result, growth in the first quarter had fallen short of the original forecast, and thus there was an increased possibility of a widening negative gdp gap.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,016	696
next, the member assessed that korea’s fiscal position was relatively sound compared to those of other advanced economies.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	431
with respect to the financial and foreign exchange sectors, the member assessed that economic agents’ search-for-yield across asset markets had abated, and macroprudential indicators appeared favorable in the internal and external sectors.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	620
the member also noted that, as the effects of the central bank’s monetary policy ultimately depended on the behavior of commercial banks that are at the center of monetary policy transmissions, it would be also important to assess the capacity of korean commercial banks to create credit and seek measures to enhance such capacity.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	660
lastly, one other member put forward the opinion that it would be advisable to carefully monitor the progress of overseas risk factors and monetary policy operations of major advanced countries, and to closely examine their effects on domestic business activities, prices and financial market conditions.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	388
economic risk factors both at home and abroad and endeavoring to lower inflation expectations, will conduct monetary policy so as to stabilize consumer price inflation at the midpoint of the inflation target over a medium-term horizon amid continuing sound growth of the economy.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,012	177
the member also argued that, despite the overall recovery in global goods demand, supply chain bottlenecks were unlikely to be resolved any time soon.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	859

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Dataset Summary

For dataset summary, please refer to https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/bank_of_korea

Additional Information

This dataset is annotated across three different tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation. The tasks have four, two, and two unique labels, respectively. This dataset contains 1,000 sentences taken from the meeting minutes of the Bank of Korea.

Label Interpretation

Stance Detection

Hawkish: The sentence supports contractionary monetary policy.
Dovish: The sentence supports expansionary monetary policy.
Neutral: The sentence contains neither hawkish or dovish sentiment, or both hawkish and dovish sentiment.
Irrelevant: The sentence is not related to monetary policy.

Temporal Classification

Forward-looking: The sentence discusses future economic events or decisions.
Not Forward-looking: The sentence discusses past or current economic events or decisions.

Uncertainty Estimation

Certain: Indicates that the sentence presents information definitively.
Uncertain: Indicates that the sentence presents information with speculation, possibility, or doubt.

Licensing Information

The bank_of_korea dataset is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International. More information in the paper.

Citation Information

@article{WCBShahSukhaniPardawala,
  title={Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Global Central Bank Communications},
  author={Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala et al.},
  year={2025}
}