gtfintechlab/bank_of_korea · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 39 700	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the member added that it should be noted that the transmission of accommodative monetary policy could be limited if a crowding-out effect from increased treasury bond issuance caused market interest rates to rise significantly or continued global dollar weakness accelerated the appreciation of the korean won.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	549
the member stated that the number of persons employed in december last year had declined at a much faster pace following the third wave of covid-19, and went on to judge that the worsening of employment conditions since the outbreak of covid-19 had resulted in a substantial degree of slack in the domestic labor market.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	476
another member argued that the slack in the labor market would work as a factor reducing the upward pressures on wages and inflation.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	663
as for housing prices, one member appraised those in seoul and its surrounding areas as having continued their fall, as in the previous month, while the pace of their increase in the rest of the country had slowed, due chiefly to burdens stemming from their previous rapid surge.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	820
he went on to express the view that, with regard to steady rising overseas investment, it was essential to evaluate in detail the future influence of overseas corporate investment on the dynamism of domestic demand, and that attention should be paid to the declining share of fixed-rate lending in overall household debt.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	736
the member added that, as it-related investment, in particular, would cause job quality in sectors other than capital-intensive new industries to continue to decline, average wages would decrease further, thus possibly leading to a reduction in the share of labor income over the medium term.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	867
members expected cpi to fall somewhat going forward, given recent underlying inflation and the decline in oil prices, and fluctuate in the mid- to upper-1 percent range, not deviating greatly from its target.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	32
rates have fallen and the korean won depreciated against the us dollar, influenced mainly by external risk factors.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	990
the member explained that these doubts had been raised because accumulated financial imbalances may have already been expanded due to interest rates, which should play the most important role in resource allocation, remaining low for a long period.	hawkish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	676
the member expected the domestic economy to sustain growth consistent with the path forecast in august, led by continued strong exports and solid growth in investment as well as a gradual recovery in consumption.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	234
first of all, the member forecast that underlying inflation would bottom out in the first quarter of this year and rebound afterwards.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	833
the committee forecasts that inflation will gradually rise, but judges that for the time being inflationary pressures will not be high.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	892
core inflation (excluding changes in food and energy prices from the cpi) has also increased slightly within the mid-0% range, and the inflation expectations of the general public have risen to near 2%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	472
in this process it will judge whether to adjust the degree of monetary policy accommodation, while carefully monitoring developments in the us-china trade negotiations, the economies and monetary policies of major countries, the trend of increase in household debt, and geopolitical risks and examining their effects on domestic macroeconomic and financial stability conditions.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	201
long-term market interest rates had risen, but have since declined.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	745
looking at financial conditions, the member’s evaluation was that excessive yield-seeking behavior had been easing somewhat, with stock prices fluctuating within a narrow range and household debt continuing to exhibit slower growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	678
the member’s diagnosis, however, was that uncertainties surrounding the future growth path remained high, owing to the uncertainty of pandemic-related developments and to the signs of a reescalation of us-china trade tensions.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	959
in global financial markets, risk aversion has strengthened due to the acceleration of policy rate hikes in major countries and consequent concerns about economic slowdown.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	710
first, looking at the global economy, the member assessed that, while the growth trend had differentiated across major economies and as inflation had continued to moderate in its underlying trend, uncertainty had increased overall due to a prolongation of tightening monetary policy stances in advanced countries and heightened geopolitical risks.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	159
as to leasehold deposit prices, the scale of their increase widened somewhat in seoul and its surrounding areas, while their uptrend in the rest of the country exhibited a pace similar to that in the preceding month.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	368
the member also pointed out that leaseholders of commercial real estate had been increasing, particularly among small business owners, and in light of this, if business conditions slowed in the future, it might cause related loans to turn sour.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	185
however, the member saw that the recent improvements in investor sentiment in global financial markets were greatly diverging from the tightening monetary policy stances in major countries, including the us, and took the view that attention should be paid to the point that instability in the domestic financial and foreign exchange markets could recur in the process of policy rate hikes by the us federal reserve and other central banks.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	728
meanwhile, the member noted that, although korea’s fiscal soundness is much more favorable than that of major countries, fiscal expenditure is likely to make far less contribution than before to growth, due mainly to the plan to lower the rate of growth in fiscal expenditure in this year’s budget and to the frontloading of budget spending during the first quarter of 2016.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	735
concerning the domestic economy, the member noted that the number of persons employed remained on a sharp rise and exports continued to be strong, while the recovery in facilities and construction investment had been delayed due to supply-side factors.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	492
in global financial markets, government bond yields in major countries have declined affected by the resurgence of covid-19.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	505
another member voiced the opinion that efforts to normalize base rate must be driven forward persistently, since the opportunity to curb price rises with monetary policy was receding and the negative effects including household debt expansion and delays in corporate restructuring were gradually increasing with the pause in rate normalization.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	168
the member added that, since the base rate had been raised on two occasions in august and november last year, it would be necessary to examine the effects of these rate hikes.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	38
meanwhile, the member presented the view that consumer price inflation remained at a low level of around 1 percent year-on-year and, although economic participation and employment rates were recently rising, this was attributable to the gradual expansion in labor market capacity in line with the rising rate of employment of the over-50s offsetting the declining rate of youth employment, and this was unlikely to lead to upward pressures on inflation over a medium-term horizon.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	101
the member added that, more fundamentally, there had been a continued underlying trend of changes to global value chains.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,020	233
the member noted that, although household lending growth was slowing, the household lending to income ratio still remained high.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	266
the member noted that other instruments of the bank of korea should be used when necessary concerning the bank’s role as market maker and as lender of last resort, while the government’s macroprudential policies should be used first to manage economic agents’ leverage, risk-taking behaviors, and asset prices.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	470
the member expressed the opinion that the decrease in the contribution of exports to real growth would be smaller than the decrease in export value but still considerable.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	688
however, mr. lee, il houng and mr. koh, seung beom expressed clear opposition to the idea of keeping the base rate at its current level and argued for raising it by 0.25 of a percentage point.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	707
looking at the real economy, the member’s assessment was that the slowdown in global trade growth had become a trend while exports and facilities investment had become more lackluster, and as a result, an economic slowdown had become apparent, with the growth rate far below the potential growth rate.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	278
the monetary policy committee members' discussions on changes in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: most members agreed that, although the base rate needed to be restored to a normal level before long, in view of the high economic growth and inflation rates, it should be left at its current level this month considering that economic uncertainty at home and abroad remained high and that tension between countries over foreign exchange rates had recently been escalating further.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,010	570
one member took the view that it would be appropriate to leave the base rate unchanged from its current level of 1.25 percent this month.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	670
on the other hand, the member argued that there remained serious concerns about worsening financial imbalances, since household loans in the financial sector maintained their subtantial increase to more than six trillion won, driven chiefly by government-sponsored loans.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	675
as for the world economy, with concerns persisting about its slowdown, uncertainties lingered due largely to the delays in recovery of consumer and investor sentiment.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,012	144
the member mentioned that inflation expectations of economic agents had grown rapidly amid the recent sustained uptrend in prices.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	918
another member commented that, while lowering the base rate by weakening consumer and investor sentiments, it was necessary to pay attention to ensure that factors threatening financial stability, such as an increase in household debt and a delay in corporate restructuring, did not materialize, and to closely examine the effects of changes in global financial market conditions resulting from any shift in the us monetary policy stance.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	141
another member presented the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate unchanged from the current level.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	263
the won-dollar exchange rate decreased due to the weakening of the dollar.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	128
the member also expressed concerns that the pandemic was likely to accelerate the trend of the outflow of population from provincial areas and the inflow of population into seoul and its surrounding areas, which had slowed for some time.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	607
the member assessed that the gap between financial and real economic conditions was not narrowing, since the real economy was showing a very modest recovery while asset prices and credit to the private sector maintained strong growth.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,020	108
one member presented the view that it would be appropriate to raise the base rate to 2.50% from the current 2.25% at this meeting.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	105
another member opined that there was a need to even out the maturity distribution of household debt, since there was a possibility of a vicious circle being set in motion between souring household loans, particularly those extended to older age groups, and real estate market instability.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,012	35
prior to the members' discussion regarding the base rate, the chairman gave the floor to the 1st vice minister of strategy and finance, who explained the government's assessment of the current economic situation and the measures to stabilize prices of items closely connected with the lives of the general public, and then left the meeting.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,011	839
one member presented the view that it would be desirable to keep the base rate unchanged from the current level.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	537
the member added that these forecasts reflected the widening of corrections in facilities and construction investment, and the negative impacts of the us-china trade dispute on exports.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	495
the member added that the chinese economy had been in a structural decline, particularly in the real estate sector.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	979
the member analyzed that this weak domestic demand was a key driver of disinflation in korea, as it makes it difficult to pass on accumulated cost pressures to the second round, even in the face of supply shocks, such as the surge in agricultural prices since the second half of last year.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	271
the member went on to argue that the policy authorities should work hard to improve economic sentiment by conveying their policy intentions more clearly and by ensuring that they are equipped with various policy instruments and are prepared to implement them.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,016	8
in addition, the member stressed the need for paying attention to the possibility that these financial easing conditions could work to build up the risk of financial imbalances, as could be seen in the recent growth in credit related to real estate and the run-up in real estate prices in some parts of the seoul metropolitan region.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	737
facilities investment has slightly increased and consumption growth has expanded, although construction investment and exports have continued to decline.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	523
another member presented the view that it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	968
the member added that it would be necessary to consider conducting monetary policy with a greater focus on financial stability once the spread of covid-19 eases and the domestic economy shows a marked recovery.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	279
- looking ahead, while supporting the recovery of economic growth the committee will conduct monetary policy so as to maintain price stability over a medium-term horizon and pay attention to financial stability.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	853
remained at a weak level, with indicators related to exports and domestic demand alternating between improving and worsening.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	899
the member added that the mers clusters were basically no more than an incidental and temporary shock that might affect the growth rate but neither the trend of economic activity nor the growth path; it would be a hasty move to respond by way of interest rates.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	282
the member noted that, despite a possible virtuous circle of stock or housing price increases leading to real economic growth through the wealth effect, if the gap between the asset markets and the real economy widened too much or asset price increases triggered household debt, this could increase financial vulnerabilities and limit the medium- to long-term growth path.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	758
the member added that this expectation was supported by large spillover effect on inflation, and in business cycle-sensitive price indexes, which reflect demand pressures; and (ii) the fact that the rate of inflation expected by the general public had held steady in the mid-2 percent range.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	375
the member stressed that it was difficult to respond to irregular exchange rate fluctuations in a consistent manner by adjusting the base rate and that, unless faced with a critical situation such as sudden capital outflows and a fall in korea’s international credit standing, priority consideration should be given to the domestic economy, inflation and financial stability conditions.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	937
looking at the financial markets, the member took the view that, as the us was expected to continue its rate hikes, and trade conflicts among major countries and financial conditions in emes had been working to destabilize the financial markets, it would be necessary to continuously monitor the possibility of a spread of related risks.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	92
the member pointed out, however, that the faster growth in private consumption had not yet been seen to facilitate production in domestic demand-oriented industries represented by services industry and to improve employment in related labor markets.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	371
- based on currently available information the board considers that the us economy has emerged from its temporary slowdown and shown a trend of moderate growth.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	190
with regard to the domestic financial markets, members pointed out that, after having declined under the influence of the movements of major country government bond yields, long-term market interest rates had risen with the improvements in economic indicators, causing the spread between long- and short-term rates to widen.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	546
the bank of korea forecasts that the global economy will maintain its recovery going forward, albeit at a moderate pace, centering around advanced economies such as the us, but judges that the possibilities exist of its being affected by heightened international financial market volatility due for example to a shift in the us federal reserve’s monetary policy, and by the weakening of economic growth in emerging market countries.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	804
in this regard, the member expected the overall economy to remain lackluster for the time being, even when accounting for the government’s active fiscal policy.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	325
the member evaluated that there was ample liquidity in the market as a result of two base rate cuts and various measures to increase liquidity supply since march.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	568
looking ahead, it is forecast that consumer price inflation will remain high in the 4% range for some time, and run substantially above the february forecast of 3.1% for the year overall.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	404
he went on to argue that it would be desirable to maintain the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period since, due mainly to seasonal factors, there was not enough data to judge the strength of the economic recovery, and there was also a need to further observe the effects of the government’s front-loading of its budget implementation and of the bok’s base rate cuts.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	352
on the employment front, as the number of persons employed increased in september, the employment-to-population ratio rose compared to that in september of last year while the unemployment rate maintained the same level.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	866
one member expressed the opinion that it would be desirable to closely monitor changes in upside and downside macroeconomic risks, housing market conditions, the trend of household debt growth, the future directions of major countries’ monetary policies, and international oil price movements, while maintaining the base rate at the current 1.25 percent level for the intermeeting period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	208
one member expressed the view that, while keeping a careful watch for example on the situation of risks in the chinese economy, and on the monetary policy operations of major advanced countries, it would be wise to closely examine the influences of these factors on the domestic economy, prices and financial market conditions.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	679
the member expressed the opinion that, overall, monetary policy should maintain its current accommodative stance, prioritizing improvements in macro indicators such as growth, inflation and employment, in response to the wider-than-expected spread of covid-19 and domestic and international economic sluggishness.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	145
the member’s assessment was that, while facilities investment was undergoing an adjustment, exports were maintaining high growth, bolstered by solid global demand, and private consumption was maintaining an underlying trend of recovery, thanks to a favorable increase in consumption of goods, despite a slight slowdown in face-to-face service consumption stemming from the worsening of the spread of the pandemic.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	567
the member raised concerns that most of the growth improvement since the second quarter had come from the us.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	793
however, members expressed conflicting opinions on the background to this growth.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,010	6
the committee forecasts that the global economy will sustain its modest recovery going forward, centering around advanced economies, but judges that the possibility exists of its being affected by the changes in global financial market conditions stemming from the shift in the us federal reserve’s monetary policy stance, by the weakening of economic growth in some emerging market countries, and by geopolitical risks in eastern europe.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	329
particularly, one member mentioned the possibility of a double dip recession, in line with the growing downside risks arising from sluggish employment conditions and a slowdown in the housing market.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	857
incorporating the outcome of their earlier discussions, a statement was compiled with the unanimous consent of all members.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,014	653
one member took the view that it would be appropriate to raise the base rate to the member mentioned that the recovery in the global economy had slowed somewhat and there were high uncertainties, both upside and downside, in line with geopolitical risks, monetary policies in major countries and the development of china’s covid-19 restrictions.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	612
one member argued that, while maintaining the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, it would be necessary to more closely analyze the trends of global risks and uncertainties that had recently grown more pronounced, while priority should at the same time be placed on examining the effects on the korean economy of the base rate cuts in august and october.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	104
members also noted that, while the international financial markets had generally shown stable movements, global interest rates had declined, stock prices had risen, and global capital had shown inflows to emerging market countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	21
members stressed, however, that attention should be paid to the possibility of renewed financial market unrest due to the high uncertainty surrounding covid-19, and also to the widening disparity between the recovery of financial markets and the sluggishness of the real economy.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	517
the korean won-us dollar exchange rate has fluctuated in line with changes in the value of the dollar globally.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	514
the member also expressed the view that, since the covid-19 shock had been asymmetric, fiscal support and bank intermediated lending support, which allow selective support for vulnerable groups, should be continued.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	69
meanwhile, the member presented the opinion that, as loan delinquency rates for real estate project financing and at non-bank financial institutions continued to rise, it would be necessary to examine risks more closely, keeping in mind the possibilities of deterioration in asset quality of related financial institutions, as well as of the weakening of their financial intermediary functions.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	165
economy and stabilize consumer price inflation at the target level over a medium-term horizon, while paying attention to financial stability.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	301
the member, however, judged that business conditions had been sluggish in the areas of the private sector not directly linked with fiscal support, and with respect to the labor market as well there was little meaningful employment growth to be found in the private service sector apart from health care and social welfare.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	648
concerning inflation, the member noted that the growth in service charges had been accelerating, coupled with upward pressures on the supply side.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	66
that, while emerging market economies have shown favorable performances, major advanced economies have exhibited signs of sluggishness.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	680
government bond yields in major countries have risen sharply and stock prices have fallen considerably.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	900
the member’s assessment was that the consequent overall sluggishness of consumption had kept core inflation within the mid-0% range, and that given the recent household income conditions, employment conditions and demographic factors, major changes were unlikely to be seen in the trends of private consumption and inflation.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	450
the member added that there were high uncertainties as to how the covid-19 situation would develop and how severe its impacts would be.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	68
the scale of the growth in mortgage lending has widened in response chiefly to low lending rates, even though house transactions have been inactive.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	700
the member assessed that korea’s recovery had been sustained since the second half of 2023.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	483
members assessed that inflation remained high, with consumer price inflation standing at the upper-5% level and core inflation and inflation expectations among the general public at the lower-4% level, boosted by the acceleration of the rise in processed food prices and the hike in electricity and gas fees, more than offsetting the slowing growth in petroleum product prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	729
the member added that these policy efforts were expected to contribute to promoting stable growth in the medium to long term by addressing asset imbalances, which had widened during the pandemic.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	734
the member thus added that there would be a need to support the real economy and stabilize inflation expectations by implementing an accommodative monetary policy for some time.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	58

the member added that it should be noted that the transmission of accommodative monetary policy could be limited if a crowding-out effect from increased treasury bond issuance caused market interest rates to rise significantly or continued global dollar weakness accelerated the appreciation of the korean won.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

549

the member stated that the number of persons employed in december last year had declined at a much faster pace following the third wave of covid-19, and went on to judge that the worsening of employment conditions since the outbreak of covid-19 had resulted in a substantial degree of slack in the domestic labor market.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

476

another member argued that the slack in the labor market would work as a factor reducing the upward pressures on wages and inflation.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

663

as for housing prices, one member appraised those in seoul and its surrounding areas as having continued their fall, as in the previous month, while the pace of their increase in the rest of the country had slowed, due chiefly to burdens stemming from their previous rapid surge.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

820

he went on to express the view that, with regard to steady rising overseas investment, it was essential to evaluate in detail the future influence of overseas corporate investment on the dynamism of domestic demand, and that attention should be paid to the declining share of fixed-rate lending in overall household debt.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

736

the member added that, as it-related investment, in particular, would cause job quality in sectors other than capital-intensive new industries to continue to decline, average wages would decrease further, thus possibly leading to a reduction in the share of labor income over the medium term.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

867

members expected cpi to fall somewhat going forward, given recent underlying inflation and the decline in oil prices, and fluctuate in the mid- to upper-1 percent range, not deviating greatly from its target.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

32

rates have fallen and the korean won depreciated against the us dollar, influenced mainly by external risk factors.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

990

the member explained that these doubts had been raised because accumulated financial imbalances may have already been expanded due to interest rates, which should play the most important role in resource allocation, remaining low for a long period.

hawkish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

676

the member expected the domestic economy to sustain growth consistent with the path forecast in august, led by continued strong exports and solid growth in investment as well as a gradual recovery in consumption.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

234

first of all, the member forecast that underlying inflation would bottom out in the first quarter of this year and rebound afterwards.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

833

the committee forecasts that inflation will gradually rise, but judges that for the time being inflationary pressures will not be high.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,014

892

core inflation (excluding changes in food and energy prices from the cpi) has also increased slightly within the mid-0% range, and the inflation expectations of the general public have risen to near 2%.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

472

in this process it will judge whether to adjust the degree of monetary policy accommodation, while carefully monitoring developments in the us-china trade negotiations, the economies and monetary policies of major countries, the trend of increase in household debt, and geopolitical risks and examining their effects on domestic macroeconomic and financial stability conditions.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

201

long-term market interest rates had risen, but have since declined.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

745

looking at financial conditions, the member’s evaluation was that excessive yield-seeking behavior had been easing somewhat, with stock prices fluctuating within a narrow range and household debt continuing to exhibit slower growth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

678

the member’s diagnosis, however, was that uncertainties surrounding the future growth path remained high, owing to the uncertainty of pandemic-related developments and to the signs of a reescalation of us-china trade tensions.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

959

in global financial markets, risk aversion has strengthened due to the acceleration of policy rate hikes in major countries and consequent concerns about economic slowdown.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

710

first, looking at the global economy, the member assessed that, while the growth trend had differentiated across major economies and as inflation had continued to moderate in its underlying trend, uncertainty had increased overall due to a prolongation of tightening monetary policy stances in advanced countries and heightened geopolitical risks.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

159

as to leasehold deposit prices, the scale of their increase widened somewhat in seoul and its surrounding areas, while their uptrend in the rest of the country exhibited a pace similar to that in the preceding month.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

368

the member also pointed out that leaseholders of commercial real estate had been increasing, particularly among small business owners, and in light of this, if business conditions slowed in the future, it might cause related loans to turn sour.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

185

however, the member saw that the recent improvements in investor sentiment in global financial markets were greatly diverging from the tightening monetary policy stances in major countries, including the us, and took the view that attention should be paid to the point that instability in the domestic financial and foreign exchange markets could recur in the process of policy rate hikes by the us federal reserve and other central banks.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

728

meanwhile, the member noted that, although korea’s fiscal soundness is much more favorable than that of major countries, fiscal expenditure is likely to make far less contribution than before to growth, due mainly to the plan to lower the rate of growth in fiscal expenditure in this year’s budget and to the frontloading of budget spending during the first quarter of 2016.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

735

concerning the domestic economy, the member noted that the number of persons employed remained on a sharp rise and exports continued to be strong, while the recovery in facilities and construction investment had been delayed due to supply-side factors.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

492

in global financial markets, government bond yields in major countries have declined affected by the resurgence of covid-19.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

505

another member voiced the opinion that efforts to normalize base rate must be driven forward persistently, since the opportunity to curb price rises with monetary policy was receding and the negative effects including household debt expansion and delays in corporate restructuring were gradually increasing with the pause in rate normalization.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

168

the member added that, since the base rate had been raised on two occasions in august and november last year, it would be necessary to examine the effects of these rate hikes.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

38

meanwhile, the member presented the view that consumer price inflation remained at a low level of around 1 percent year-on-year and, although economic participation and employment rates were recently rising, this was attributable to the gradual expansion in labor market capacity in line with the rising rate of employment of the over-50s offsetting the declining rate of youth employment, and this was unlikely to lead to upward pressures on inflation over a medium-term horizon.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

101

the member added that, more fundamentally, there had been a continued underlying trend of changes to global value chains.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,020

233

the member noted that, although household lending growth was slowing, the household lending to income ratio still remained high.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

266

the member noted that other instruments of the bank of korea should be used when necessary concerning the bank’s role as market maker and as lender of last resort, while the government’s macroprudential policies should be used first to manage economic agents’ leverage, risk-taking behaviors, and asset prices.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

470

the member expressed the opinion that the decrease in the contribution of exports to real growth would be smaller than the decrease in export value but still considerable.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

688

however, mr. lee, il houng and mr. koh, seung beom expressed clear opposition to the idea of keeping the base rate at its current level and argued for raising it by 0.25 of a percentage point.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

707

looking at the real economy, the member’s assessment was that the slowdown in global trade growth had become a trend while exports and facilities investment had become more lackluster, and as a result, an economic slowdown had become apparent, with the growth rate far below the potential growth rate.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

278

the monetary policy committee members' discussions on changes in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: most members agreed that, although the base rate needed to be restored to a normal level before long, in view of the high economic growth and inflation rates, it should be left at its current level this month considering that economic uncertainty at home and abroad remained high and that tension between countries over foreign exchange rates had recently been escalating further.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,010

570

one member took the view that it would be appropriate to leave the base rate unchanged from its current level of 1.25 percent this month.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

670

on the other hand, the member argued that there remained serious concerns about worsening financial imbalances, since household loans in the financial sector maintained their subtantial increase to more than six trillion won, driven chiefly by government-sponsored loans.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

675

as for the world economy, with concerns persisting about its slowdown, uncertainties lingered due largely to the delays in recovery of consumer and investor sentiment.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,012

144

the member mentioned that inflation expectations of economic agents had grown rapidly amid the recent sustained uptrend in prices.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

918

another member commented that, while lowering the base rate by weakening consumer and investor sentiments, it was necessary to pay attention to ensure that factors threatening financial stability, such as an increase in household debt and a delay in corporate restructuring, did not materialize, and to closely examine the effects of changes in global financial market conditions resulting from any shift in the us monetary policy stance.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,014

141

another member presented the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate unchanged from the current level.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

263

the won-dollar exchange rate decreased due to the weakening of the dollar.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

128

the member also expressed concerns that the pandemic was likely to accelerate the trend of the outflow of population from provincial areas and the inflow of population into seoul and its surrounding areas, which had slowed for some time.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

607

the member assessed that the gap between financial and real economic conditions was not narrowing, since the real economy was showing a very modest recovery while asset prices and credit to the private sector maintained strong growth.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,020

108

one member presented the view that it would be appropriate to raise the base rate to 2.50% from the current 2.25% at this meeting.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

105

another member opined that there was a need to even out the maturity distribution of household debt, since there was a possibility of a vicious circle being set in motion between souring household loans, particularly those extended to older age groups, and real estate market instability.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,012

35

prior to the members' discussion regarding the base rate, the chairman gave the floor to the 1st vice minister of strategy and finance, who explained the government's assessment of the current economic situation and the measures to stabilize prices of items closely connected with the lives of the general public, and then left the meeting.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,011

839

one member presented the view that it would be desirable to keep the base rate unchanged from the current level.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

537

the member added that these forecasts reflected the widening of corrections in facilities and construction investment, and the negative impacts of the us-china trade dispute on exports.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

495

the member added that the chinese economy had been in a structural decline, particularly in the real estate sector.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

979

the member analyzed that this weak domestic demand was a key driver of disinflation in korea, as it makes it difficult to pass on accumulated cost pressures to the second round, even in the face of supply shocks, such as the surge in agricultural prices since the second half of last year.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

271

the member went on to argue that the policy authorities should work hard to improve economic sentiment by conveying their policy intentions more clearly and by ensuring that they are equipped with various policy instruments and are prepared to implement them.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,016

8

in addition, the member stressed the need for paying attention to the possibility that these financial easing conditions could work to build up the risk of financial imbalances, as could be seen in the recent growth in credit related to real estate and the run-up in real estate prices in some parts of the seoul metropolitan region.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

737

facilities investment has slightly increased and consumption growth has expanded, although construction investment and exports have continued to decline.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

523

another member presented the view that it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

968

the member added that it would be necessary to consider conducting monetary policy with a greater focus on financial stability once the spread of covid-19 eases and the domestic economy shows a marked recovery.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

279

- looking ahead, while supporting the recovery of economic growth the committee will conduct monetary policy so as to maintain price stability over a medium-term horizon and pay attention to financial stability.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

853

remained at a weak level, with indicators related to exports and domestic demand alternating between improving and worsening.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

899

the member added that the mers clusters were basically no more than an incidental and temporary shock that might affect the growth rate but neither the trend of economic activity nor the growth path; it would be a hasty move to respond by way of interest rates.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

282

the member noted that, despite a possible virtuous circle of stock or housing price increases leading to real economic growth through the wealth effect, if the gap between the asset markets and the real economy widened too much or asset price increases triggered household debt, this could increase financial vulnerabilities and limit the medium- to long-term growth path.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

758

the member added that this expectation was supported by large spillover effect on inflation, and in business cycle-sensitive price indexes, which reflect demand pressures; and (ii) the fact that the rate of inflation expected by the general public had held steady in the mid-2 percent range.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

375

the member stressed that it was difficult to respond to irregular exchange rate fluctuations in a consistent manner by adjusting the base rate and that, unless faced with a critical situation such as sudden capital outflows and a fall in korea’s international credit standing, priority consideration should be given to the domestic economy, inflation and financial stability conditions.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

937

looking at the financial markets, the member took the view that, as the us was expected to continue its rate hikes, and trade conflicts among major countries and financial conditions in emes had been working to destabilize the financial markets, it would be necessary to continuously monitor the possibility of a spread of related risks.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

92

the member pointed out, however, that the faster growth in private consumption had not yet been seen to facilitate production in domestic demand-oriented industries represented by services industry and to improve employment in related labor markets.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

371

- based on currently available information the board considers that the us economy has emerged from its temporary slowdown and shown a trend of moderate growth.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

190

with regard to the domestic financial markets, members pointed out that, after having declined under the influence of the movements of major country government bond yields, long-term market interest rates had risen with the improvements in economic indicators, causing the spread between long- and short-term rates to widen.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

546

the bank of korea forecasts that the global economy will maintain its recovery going forward, albeit at a moderate pace, centering around advanced economies such as the us, but judges that the possibilities exist of its being affected by heightened international financial market volatility due for example to a shift in the us federal reserve’s monetary policy, and by the weakening of economic growth in emerging market countries.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

804

in this regard, the member expected the overall economy to remain lackluster for the time being, even when accounting for the government’s active fiscal policy.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

325

the member evaluated that there was ample liquidity in the market as a result of two base rate cuts and various measures to increase liquidity supply since march.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

568

looking ahead, it is forecast that consumer price inflation will remain high in the 4% range for some time, and run substantially above the february forecast of 3.1% for the year overall.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

404

he went on to argue that it would be desirable to maintain the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period since, due mainly to seasonal factors, there was not enough data to judge the strength of the economic recovery, and there was also a need to further observe the effects of the government’s front-loading of its budget implementation and of the bok’s base rate cuts.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

352

on the employment front, as the number of persons employed increased in september, the employment-to-population ratio rose compared to that in september of last year while the unemployment rate maintained the same level.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

866

one member expressed the opinion that it would be desirable to closely monitor changes in upside and downside macroeconomic risks, housing market conditions, the trend of household debt growth, the future directions of major countries’ monetary policies, and international oil price movements, while maintaining the base rate at the current 1.25 percent level for the intermeeting period.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

208

one member expressed the view that, while keeping a careful watch for example on the situation of risks in the chinese economy, and on the monetary policy operations of major advanced countries, it would be wise to closely examine the influences of these factors on the domestic economy, prices and financial market conditions.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

679

the member expressed the opinion that, overall, monetary policy should maintain its current accommodative stance, prioritizing improvements in macro indicators such as growth, inflation and employment, in response to the wider-than-expected spread of covid-19 and domestic and international economic sluggishness.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

145

the member’s assessment was that, while facilities investment was undergoing an adjustment, exports were maintaining high growth, bolstered by solid global demand, and private consumption was maintaining an underlying trend of recovery, thanks to a favorable increase in consumption of goods, despite a slight slowdown in face-to-face service consumption stemming from the worsening of the spread of the pandemic.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

567

the member raised concerns that most of the growth improvement since the second quarter had come from the us.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

793

however, members expressed conflicting opinions on the background to this growth.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,010

6

the committee forecasts that the global economy will sustain its modest recovery going forward, centering around advanced economies, but judges that the possibility exists of its being affected by the changes in global financial market conditions stemming from the shift in the us federal reserve’s monetary policy stance, by the weakening of economic growth in some emerging market countries, and by geopolitical risks in eastern europe.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

329

particularly, one member mentioned the possibility of a double dip recession, in line with the growing downside risks arising from sluggish employment conditions and a slowdown in the housing market.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

857

incorporating the outcome of their earlier discussions, a statement was compiled with the unanimous consent of all members.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,014

653

one member took the view that it would be appropriate to raise the base rate to the member mentioned that the recovery in the global economy had slowed somewhat and there were high uncertainties, both upside and downside, in line with geopolitical risks, monetary policies in major countries and the development of china’s covid-19 restrictions.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

612

one member argued that, while maintaining the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, it would be necessary to more closely analyze the trends of global risks and uncertainties that had recently grown more pronounced, while priority should at the same time be placed on examining the effects on the korean economy of the base rate cuts in august and october.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

104

members also noted that, while the international financial markets had generally shown stable movements, global interest rates had declined, stock prices had risen, and global capital had shown inflows to emerging market countries.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

21

members stressed, however, that attention should be paid to the possibility of renewed financial market unrest due to the high uncertainty surrounding covid-19, and also to the widening disparity between the recovery of financial markets and the sluggishness of the real economy.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

517

the korean won-us dollar exchange rate has fluctuated in line with changes in the value of the dollar globally.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

514

the member also expressed the view that, since the covid-19 shock had been asymmetric, fiscal support and bank intermediated lending support, which allow selective support for vulnerable groups, should be continued.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

69

meanwhile, the member presented the opinion that, as loan delinquency rates for real estate project financing and at non-bank financial institutions continued to rise, it would be necessary to examine risks more closely, keeping in mind the possibilities of deterioration in asset quality of related financial institutions, as well as of the weakening of their financial intermediary functions.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

165

economy and stabilize consumer price inflation at the target level over a medium-term horizon, while paying attention to financial stability.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

301

the member, however, judged that business conditions had been sluggish in the areas of the private sector not directly linked with fiscal support, and with respect to the labor market as well there was little meaningful employment growth to be found in the private service sector apart from health care and social welfare.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

648

concerning inflation, the member noted that the growth in service charges had been accelerating, coupled with upward pressures on the supply side.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

66

that, while emerging market economies have shown favorable performances, major advanced economies have exhibited signs of sluggishness.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

680

government bond yields in major countries have risen sharply and stock prices have fallen considerably.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

900

the member’s assessment was that the consequent overall sluggishness of consumption had kept core inflation within the mid-0% range, and that given the recent household income conditions, employment conditions and demographic factors, major changes were unlikely to be seen in the trends of private consumption and inflation.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

450

the member added that there were high uncertainties as to how the covid-19 situation would develop and how severe its impacts would be.

irrelevant

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

68

the scale of the growth in mortgage lending has widened in response chiefly to low lending rates, even though house transactions have been inactive.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

700

the member assessed that korea’s recovery had been sustained since the second half of 2023.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

483

members assessed that inflation remained high, with consumer price inflation standing at the upper-5% level and core inflation and inflation expectations among the general public at the lower-4% level, boosted by the acceleration of the rise in processed food prices and the hike in electricity and gas fees, more than offsetting the slowing growth in petroleum product prices.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

729

the member added that these policy efforts were expected to contribute to promoting stable growth in the medium to long term by addressing asset imbalances, which had widened during the pandemic.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

734

the member thus added that there would be a need to support the real economy and stabilize inflation expectations by implementing an accommodative monetary policy for some time.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

58