gtfintechlab/bank_of_korea · Datasets at Hugging Face

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the member noted that, since the middle of last year, rising import prices including commodity prices had been gradually leading to rising prices of final consumer goods through producer prices, and the number of items showing price increases in the consumer price index had also been growing.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	134
one other member expressed the opinion that, while maintaining the base rate at its current 1.25% level for the intermeeting period, the bank of korea should keep a close watch on developments of domestic and overseas risk factors and their impacts.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	522
the member, however, assessed this to be largely attributable not to demand factors but to policy factors, which include the government’s welfare policy measures, such as an increase in public heath care benefit coverage, an expansion of free school meals, and temporary cuts in the individual consumption tax and electricity fees.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	422
one member commented that the possibility of a double-dip recession in the us economy, the sovereign debt problems in certain european countries and geopolitical risks on the korean peninsula had served as factors limiting normalization of the base rate, but that uncertainties with regard to these factors seemed to have eased significantly of late.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	239
the member commented that in fx markets, the korean won to u.s. dollar exchange rate had remained high with its volatility expanded.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	996
the member also noted that some non-bank financial institutions that had significantly increased their exposure to real estate financing were experiencing a rapid increase in delinquency rates, suggesting that there were potential risks related to the real estate market.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	146
august, owing mainly to slowdowns in the rates of agricultural product price increase and to declines in petroleum product prices.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	218
the member added that, given that there was also little sign of improvement in employment in the domestic demand-led services industry, the projection that ‘consumer price inflation will approach its 2-percent target in the second half of this year, dependent upon economic recovery’ also seemed somewhat uncertain.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	290
many members forecast that, although inflation would remain stable for the time being as demand-side pressures were weak, it would rise gradually from the latter half of 2013, influenced for instance by an increase in the prices of agricultural and marine products and by a base effect.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	783
although the increase in the number of employed slowed in september due to temporary factors, the trend of improvement led by the private sector appears to be continuing.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	473
the member observed that household loans in the financial sector rose at a rapid pace, driven by the increase in apartment prices and transaction volume in seoul and its surrounding areas.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	315
second, the member stated that it would be necessary to keep a close watch on how that day’s fed rate hike and policy rate projections by the fomc meeting participants would affect international financial markets and domestic financial and foreign exchange markets.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	815
the member added that this was because supply-side inflationary pressures had recently increased to a greater extent than expected due to rising oil prices and to the exchange rate, and, if the situation in the middle east worsens, there was a significant risk of a further rise in oil prices and a further strengthening of the u.s. dollar simultaneously.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	909
the member also found it desirable to keep a close watch on whether the foundation for economic recovery would spread to domestic demand, leading to further inflationary pressures, while examining whether risk related to household debt, which had increased sharply in line with the boom in the real estate market, would gradually diminish.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	934
the member expected that fiscal policy would contribute considerably to economic recovery, due to a large year-on-year increase in the managed fiscal deficit.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	402
the member expressed the view that, while the accommodative monetary policy thus far had been working as a factor causing faster growth in household debt, it was assessed to have contributed greatly to easing deflation concerns by limiting the possibility of further deterioration in domestic economic activity amid difficult economic environments at home and abroad.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	510
the member presented the opinion that household loans exhibited slower growth owing to a decline in other loans, while housing-related loans sustained strong growth.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	732
the member argued, however, that uncertainties surrounding the future growth path remained high, owing to geopolitical risks as well as the lack of agreements in trade talks between major countries.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	26
the member noted that employment conditions had improved somewhat with the number of persons employed increasing slightly in october.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	39
in summary, the member saw that, while the growth trend has improved, risks from external conditions, such as the exchange rate, remain, and upside risks to inflation have increased.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	86
the member stressed that it would be necessary to address the uncertainties felt by economic agents and stop self-reinforcing dynamic adaptation, while sharing the view that it was difficult to expect the domestic economy to grow at more than a modest pace in a situation where exports were unlikely to recover easily.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	47
rates rose, due mostly to international financial market stability and improvements in economic indicators in major countries, and the korean won appreciated against the us dollar owing chiefly to the continued surplus in the current account.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,012	807
the member noted that the world economy was sustaining its moderate pace of growth, and the impacts of impending us rate hikes on the international financial markets and the foreign exchange market in korea were likely to be limited.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	957
as a result, most central banks in advanced economies began cutting rates or have signaled the possibility of doing so.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	903
first, the member noted that there existed latent risks of increases in agricultural product and energy prices as well as existing supply shocks from geopolitical risks.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	526
the member judged that, taking these points into overall consideration, it would be appropriate to raise the base rate to 0.75% from 0.50%.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	933
have weakened more than originally anticipated, with the rates of growth in exports and domestic demand remaining at low levels.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	454
the member expressed the view that, although the global economy had overall maintained favorable growth and global trade had rebounded in the second quarter, uncertainties had increased, since, from the second half of this year, the repercussions of the us-china trade dispute were likely to increase more than originally expected and the us federal reserve was forecast to continue to normalize its monetary policy in line with the sustained us economic growth.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	606
as to export and import trends, the 1st vice minister remarked that exports had shown slower growth in october, due chiefly to the base effect and to decreased exports to the us and the eu in line with the global fiscal crisis, while imports had fallen from the preceding month owing largely to the depreciation of the korean won against the us dollar and the decline in international commodity prices.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	941
in this regard, the member stated the view that there was an urgent need to collect micro-data related to household debt in order to gain an understanding of the exact state of household debt in korea, including lending to self-employed business operators and the debt of unregistered landlords, and to set up a system of managing such data systemically.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	298
the member went on to assert that in the past, such developments often formed a virtuous circle with the real sector economy through improved consumer and business sentiment, with some time lag.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	702
the member also raised concerns about a growing possibility that spillover effects from negative shocks, such as an economic recession or housing price declines, could expand due to heightened vulnerabilities to household income and housing price risks.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	142
one member pointed out that, even if the base rate was maintained at its current level for december, a clear signal should be conveyed to the markets that the central bank's stance on interest rate normalization to achieve price stability remained in effect.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	273
about financial markets, the member commented that despite the rise in market interest rates driven by weakened expectations for the u.s. fed’s early rate cuts, market sentiments had generally remained stable, but that the potential risk associated with real estate project financing was still high, with home mortgage loans and corporate loans continuing to soar.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	943
the member saw that, while global trade had begun to recover modestly from its slowdown, many countries were still exhibiting weak growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	223
members also judged that risk aversion in the international financial markets had heightened, and that the u.s. dollar had continued to strengthen.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	154
the committee forecasts that, due largely to the stability of international agricultural prices, inflation will remain low for the time being, but that it will be higher than its current level.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,013	103
as to domestic financial markets, many members attributed the large fluctuation in price variables, including interest rates, stock prices and exchange rates, to external factors such as the possibility of an escalation of the sovereign debt problems in europe and a slowdown in u.s. economic recovery.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,011	724
another member meanwhile argued that the possibility of global economic recovery was also gradually increasing, thanks to the signs of improvement in u.s. employment and housing indexes, which had until then been a source of deep concern.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,010	369
in this regard, the member mentioned that it would be important to reduce the degree of monetary easing to weaken inefficient incentives for investment and curb financial imbalances.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	502
however, one member pointed out the possibility that the degree of contribution of fiscal stimulus to growth might fall greatly from the second half of the year, since it would be difficult for the government to expand its spending significantly this year due to concerns about fiscal soundness.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	44
however, the member suggested a few reasons for preferring keeping the base rate unchanged, despite such concern.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	532
one member presented the view that it would be appropriate to raise the base rate to 0.75% from the current 0.50%.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	106
however, concerns about the buildup of financial imbalances have increased due to rising housing prices and expanding household loan growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	558
finally, the member found it difficult to be optimistic that the trend of household debt growth would stabilize next year, since demand for home mortgage lending was expected to be strong, led by apartments under construction that had already been sold, despite policy efforts to curb household debt.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	259
externally, the member noted the growing concerns about the us-china trade dispute, expressing the opinion that if trade protectionism became more globally widespread, consumption and investment could be constrained greatly through strengthened risk aversion, although losses in exports stemming from already finalized trade sanctions were estimated to have been limited.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	616
after briefings by staff on ‘current economic developments in korea’, the monetary policy board (mpb) members covered the following areas: with regard to the global economy, members’ assessment was that chinese economic growth was continuing to slow down, with the nation’s exports declining, while the us economy was maintaining its recovery, with consumption, facilities investment and the housing market continuing to improve and employment growth accelerating, and the euro area was showing a modest recovery.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	114
the member commented that the price and growth trends and financial stability conditions would be considered together in a balanced manner in base rate rate operations going forward.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	795
another member expressed the opinion that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, as domestic economic conditions had not changed much from the previous month and the international financial markets had shown stability in the short term.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	338
the member went on to express the opinion that, given these factors, while the base rate should be maintained at the current level, it was necessary to closely monitor downside risks to the macroeconomy going forward.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	155
the member also expressed the view that, despite heightened international financial market volatility, financial instability seemed unlikely to spread to korea, thanks largely to korea’s sustained current account surplus and to sound financial conditions at korean financial institutions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	186
- the monetary policy board of the bank of korea decided today to leave the base rate unchanged at 1.50% for the intermeeting period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	222
meanwhile, the member stated that, in the fx market, the korean won to us dollar exchange rate, which had risen significantly, fell sharply, in line with improvement in investor sentiment, driven by expectations of an adjustment to the pace of rate hikes by the us federal reserve.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	162
on the employment front, the number of persons employed has continued its substantial uptrend, led by increases in the 50-and-above age group and in the service sector.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,014	862
the member added that this was attributable to the softened expectations of the u.s. federal reserve’s further rate hikes and adjustments in the pace of long-term bond issuance by the u.s. department of the treasury, and thanks to a weakened u.s. dollar.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	87
accordingly, the member projected that the growth rate for the year would be 1.4%, slightly lower than the february projection of 1.6%.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	569
on the global economic front, the member noted that global trade was showing a solid recovery despite existing risks such as uncertainties originating in china, slow recoveries in other emerging market economies, rising energy prices, and supply and demand imbalances.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	164
another member meanwhile expressed concerns about the continued, albeit slight, rise in mortgage loans under the influence of low lending rates.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	90
the member projected that, while the domestic economy would maintain a slowing trend for some time, it would gradually recover in the second half of this year.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,023	843
to sharp rises in the prices of some agricultural and livestock products.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	945
most members expressed concerns about issues such as the contractions in consumer and investor confidence and the weakening of consumption due to structural factors, while some noted the possibility of a further delay in the economic recovery going forward.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	775
they forecast that the economic recovery would be maintained, driven largely by the economic recovery centered around advanced countries, and the restoration of consumer and investor confidence.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,014	762
one member, while noting that there still was a possibility of international financial market volatility heightening with monetary policies in major advanced countries diverging, expressed the opinion that it would be better to keep a close watch on the monetary policy implementation by major advanced countries and the movements of international financial market price variables going forward, while closely monitoring their influence on the domestic economy.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	354
the member mentioned that, led by the buoyancy of the it sector, exports and facilities investment would likely contribute significantly to korea’s economic growth, and this trend was expected to continue next year.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	748
the member’s assessment was that, although the accommodative fiscal policy had been acting as a buffer against the real neutral interest rate decline, this would have only a limited effect, considering the sluggish income and inflation indicators.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	29
concerning the domestic economy, members’ evaluation was that it was continuing to grow at its potential level with the steady growth of private consumption and exports, although facilities and construction investment had been going through corrections.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	840
he then noted that the government’s policy focus would be placed on such areas as price stability, boosting domestic demand and expanding the social safety net.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,011	544
the member took the view that the sluggishness in the global economy could ease somewhat toward the second half of the year, boosted by the normalization of china’s economic activity and improvements in the it industry, but that it would not be easy to expect any rapid economic recovery due to the spillover effects of the short-term surge in interest rates on the financial sector and the real economy.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	287
long-term market interest rates have risen, in response mainly to expectations of a policy rate hike by the us federal reserve and of an increased volume of korean treasury bond issuance.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	727
with regard to prices, members noted that consumer price inflation stood at 1.4%, lower than in the previous month, and forecast that it would remain at a low level for the time being.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,014	703
meanwhile, the member’s evaluation was that housing price growth had accelerated, particularly in seoul and its surrounding areas, and home purchase sentiment and expectations of higher housing prices were also rising again.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	626
the member also stated that, with the recent inflation pressures attributable largely to supply-side factors, producer prices were rising faster than consumer prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	446
the member added that facilities investment was showing faster-than-expected growth, while the correction in construction investment was proceeding at a modest pace and therefore was unlikely to constrain macroeconomic recovery.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,017	207
looking at recent price conditions, the member saw that, as factors pointed to as upside risks such as an ongoing upward trend in commodity prices and prolonged global supply bottlenecks were materializing, strong upward trends in prices were witnessed across core items.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	466
the member projected that the domestic economy would likely continue to improve modestly, with a weaker consumption recovery, but with ongoing strong exports.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	605
going forward as well, many members expected the domestic economy to remain on an upward track, led by exports.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	75
meanwhile, one member took the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, in overall consideration of factors such as household debt that cause financial instability and the heightened uncertainties concerning domestic and overseas conditions, despite a slight increase in downside risks to the recent real economy and next year’s inflation.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	16
in determining the monetary policy direction in these macroeconomic conditions, the member took notice of the following matters.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,021	428
the member saw that the global economy was maintaining growth above its potential and continuing to show a modest expansionary phase.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	98
the member presented the opinion that, particularly since consumer price inflation had run in the 0% range for two years in a row and the trend of recovery in consumption was expected to be delayed due to the resurgence of covid-19, present conditions did not give rise to concerns about upward inflationary pressures over a medium-term horizon.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	960
the moderate recovery in the euro area had continued, bolstered by increased production, while economic growth in china had continued to slow.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	485
concerning inflation, members saw that consumer price inflation had declined sharply, due mainly to a decline in petroleum product prices, and expected that it would fluctuate for some time below 1 percent amid modest demand-side inflationary pressures.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	538
fourth, there was still substantial spare capacity in both production and employment, with the manufacturing operation ratio remaining at a low level and broad labour underutilization indicator unemployment rate increasing.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	572
the member added that we had gained clear insight into how substantial fiscal expenditures, which had inevitably heightened during covid, had impacted inflation.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	61
he pointed out that, although foreign portfolio investment funds had experienced large outflows in july and the won had depreciated against the dollar, this was attributable to a weakening of the won in line with the global strength of the us dollar, and to some emes’ need to secure foreign currency liquidity, rather than to changes in korea’s economic fundamentals.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,015	689
long term market interest rates have declined in response to the planned reduction in the volume of treasury bond issuance and foreigners' sustained bond purchases.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	615
recoveries in major advanced economies to have exhibited signs of being somewhat delayed, while emerging market economies continue to show favorable performances.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,011	976
the member, however, emphasized that a close watch should be kept on the impacts of the recently introduced anti-graft law and the government measures to stabilize the housing market.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	260
looking ahead, the board sees global economic growth and global financial markets as likely to be affected largely by global inflation movements, monetary policy changes in major countries, geopolitical risks, and covid-19 restrictions in major countries.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	948
the member thus presented the opinion that, given this point, it would be necessary to decide the pace of tightening cautiously going forward, examining the effect of base rate hikes so far and keeping a close watch on the developments of factors causing domestic and overseas uncertainties.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	518
the member emphasized that attention should be paid to the possibility that price variable volatility would rise again and household and corporate credit risks would increase in the event of a delay in economic recovery due to prolongation of the pandemic.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	779
the moderate economic recovery in the us to have been sustained but economic activities in the euro area to have been unable to shake off their sluggishness, while emerging market countries have shown continuing economic growth.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	46
one member presented the view that it would be desirable to keep the base rate at its current the member saw that, as trade disputes had escalated and political uncertainties had heightened since the previous mpb meeting, volatility in the global financial markets had increased and the trend of low growth had become further entrenched.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	527
the member thus expressed the opinion that the government should provide guarantees for solvency risks in advance to allow the central bank to preemptively respond.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	377
many members mentioned that, in the international financial markets, with global interest rates showing stable trends due to the easing of concerns about early qe tapering by the us federal reserve, stock prices had risen sharply.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,013	5
european countries, on the other hand, have been simultaneously experiencing both declining inflation and sluggish growth due to a stagnation in labor productivity resulting from the sluggish manufacturing sector and to a delay in any recovery in demand.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	956
although korea does not have large trade volumes with russia and ukraine, negative supply shocks might be seen through higher commodity prices, and negative demand shocks via an indirect route through for instance the eu.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	864
the member noted that, despite the substantial increase in the government’s transfer payments, the decline in household consumption growth has not been eased.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	861
taking these points into overall consideration, the member saw it desirable to maintain the base rate at the current level of 3.5% at this meeting.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,024	48
the member noted that, even if consumer price inflation for this year rose to around 2%, as projected by the research department, consumer price inflation for 2019 and 2020 was only 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, and core inflation would remain at the pressures was not a matter of concern, and inflation expectations implied in long-term interest rates were not high.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	256

the member noted that, since the middle of last year, rising import prices including commodity prices had been gradually leading to rising prices of final consumer goods through producer prices, and the number of items showing price increases in the consumer price index had also been growing.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

134

one other member expressed the opinion that, while maintaining the base rate at its current 1.25% level for the intermeeting period, the bank of korea should keep a close watch on developments of domestic and overseas risk factors and their impacts.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

522

the member, however, assessed this to be largely attributable not to demand factors but to policy factors, which include the government’s welfare policy measures, such as an increase in public heath care benefit coverage, an expansion of free school meals, and temporary cuts in the individual consumption tax and electricity fees.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

422

one member commented that the possibility of a double-dip recession in the us economy, the sovereign debt problems in certain european countries and geopolitical risks on the korean peninsula had served as factors limiting normalization of the base rate, but that uncertainties with regard to these factors seemed to have eased significantly of late.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

239

the member commented that in fx markets, the korean won to u.s. dollar exchange rate had remained high with its volatility expanded.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

996

the member also noted that some non-bank financial institutions that had significantly increased their exposure to real estate financing were experiencing a rapid increase in delinquency rates, suggesting that there were potential risks related to the real estate market.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

146

august, owing mainly to slowdowns in the rates of agricultural product price increase and to declines in petroleum product prices.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

218

the member added that, given that there was also little sign of improvement in employment in the domestic demand-led services industry, the projection that ‘consumer price inflation will approach its 2-percent target in the second half of this year, dependent upon economic recovery’ also seemed somewhat uncertain.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

290

many members forecast that, although inflation would remain stable for the time being as demand-side pressures were weak, it would rise gradually from the latter half of 2013, influenced for instance by an increase in the prices of agricultural and marine products and by a base effect.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

783

although the increase in the number of employed slowed in september due to temporary factors, the trend of improvement led by the private sector appears to be continuing.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

473

the member observed that household loans in the financial sector rose at a rapid pace, driven by the increase in apartment prices and transaction volume in seoul and its surrounding areas.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

315

second, the member stated that it would be necessary to keep a close watch on how that day’s fed rate hike and policy rate projections by the fomc meeting participants would affect international financial markets and domestic financial and foreign exchange markets.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

815

the member added that this was because supply-side inflationary pressures had recently increased to a greater extent than expected due to rising oil prices and to the exchange rate, and, if the situation in the middle east worsens, there was a significant risk of a further rise in oil prices and a further strengthening of the u.s. dollar simultaneously.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

909

the member also found it desirable to keep a close watch on whether the foundation for economic recovery would spread to domestic demand, leading to further inflationary pressures, while examining whether risk related to household debt, which had increased sharply in line with the boom in the real estate market, would gradually diminish.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

934

the member expected that fiscal policy would contribute considerably to economic recovery, due to a large year-on-year increase in the managed fiscal deficit.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

402

the member expressed the view that, while the accommodative monetary policy thus far had been working as a factor causing faster growth in household debt, it was assessed to have contributed greatly to easing deflation concerns by limiting the possibility of further deterioration in domestic economic activity amid difficult economic environments at home and abroad.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

510

the member presented the opinion that household loans exhibited slower growth owing to a decline in other loans, while housing-related loans sustained strong growth.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

732

the member argued, however, that uncertainties surrounding the future growth path remained high, owing to geopolitical risks as well as the lack of agreements in trade talks between major countries.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

26

the member noted that employment conditions had improved somewhat with the number of persons employed increasing slightly in october.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

39

in summary, the member saw that, while the growth trend has improved, risks from external conditions, such as the exchange rate, remain, and upside risks to inflation have increased.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

86

the member stressed that it would be necessary to address the uncertainties felt by economic agents and stop self-reinforcing dynamic adaptation, while sharing the view that it was difficult to expect the domestic economy to grow at more than a modest pace in a situation where exports were unlikely to recover easily.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

47

rates rose, due mostly to international financial market stability and improvements in economic indicators in major countries, and the korean won appreciated against the us dollar owing chiefly to the continued surplus in the current account.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,012

807

the member noted that the world economy was sustaining its moderate pace of growth, and the impacts of impending us rate hikes on the international financial markets and the foreign exchange market in korea were likely to be limited.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

957

as a result, most central banks in advanced economies began cutting rates or have signaled the possibility of doing so.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

903

first, the member noted that there existed latent risks of increases in agricultural product and energy prices as well as existing supply shocks from geopolitical risks.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

526

the member judged that, taking these points into overall consideration, it would be appropriate to raise the base rate to 0.75% from 0.50%.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

933

have weakened more than originally anticipated, with the rates of growth in exports and domestic demand remaining at low levels.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

454

the member expressed the view that, although the global economy had overall maintained favorable growth and global trade had rebounded in the second quarter, uncertainties had increased, since, from the second half of this year, the repercussions of the us-china trade dispute were likely to increase more than originally expected and the us federal reserve was forecast to continue to normalize its monetary policy in line with the sustained us economic growth.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

606

as to export and import trends, the 1st vice minister remarked that exports had shown slower growth in october, due chiefly to the base effect and to decreased exports to the us and the eu in line with the global fiscal crisis, while imports had fallen from the preceding month owing largely to the depreciation of the korean won against the us dollar and the decline in international commodity prices.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

941

in this regard, the member stated the view that there was an urgent need to collect micro-data related to household debt in order to gain an understanding of the exact state of household debt in korea, including lending to self-employed business operators and the debt of unregistered landlords, and to set up a system of managing such data systemically.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

298

the member went on to assert that in the past, such developments often formed a virtuous circle with the real sector economy through improved consumer and business sentiment, with some time lag.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

702

the member also raised concerns about a growing possibility that spillover effects from negative shocks, such as an economic recession or housing price declines, could expand due to heightened vulnerabilities to household income and housing price risks.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

142

one member pointed out that, even if the base rate was maintained at its current level for december, a clear signal should be conveyed to the markets that the central bank's stance on interest rate normalization to achieve price stability remained in effect.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

273

about financial markets, the member commented that despite the rise in market interest rates driven by weakened expectations for the u.s. fed’s early rate cuts, market sentiments had generally remained stable, but that the potential risk associated with real estate project financing was still high, with home mortgage loans and corporate loans continuing to soar.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

943

the member saw that, while global trade had begun to recover modestly from its slowdown, many countries were still exhibiting weak growth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

223

members also judged that risk aversion in the international financial markets had heightened, and that the u.s. dollar had continued to strengthen.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

154

the committee forecasts that, due largely to the stability of international agricultural prices, inflation will remain low for the time being, but that it will be higher than its current level.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,013

103

as to domestic financial markets, many members attributed the large fluctuation in price variables, including interest rates, stock prices and exchange rates, to external factors such as the possibility of an escalation of the sovereign debt problems in europe and a slowdown in u.s. economic recovery.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,011

724

another member meanwhile argued that the possibility of global economic recovery was also gradually increasing, thanks to the signs of improvement in u.s. employment and housing indexes, which had until then been a source of deep concern.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,010

369

in this regard, the member mentioned that it would be important to reduce the degree of monetary easing to weaken inefficient incentives for investment and curb financial imbalances.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

502

however, one member pointed out the possibility that the degree of contribution of fiscal stimulus to growth might fall greatly from the second half of the year, since it would be difficult for the government to expand its spending significantly this year due to concerns about fiscal soundness.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

44

however, the member suggested a few reasons for preferring keeping the base rate unchanged, despite such concern.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

532

one member presented the view that it would be appropriate to raise the base rate to 0.75% from the current 0.50%.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

106

however, concerns about the buildup of financial imbalances have increased due to rising housing prices and expanding household loan growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

558

finally, the member found it difficult to be optimistic that the trend of household debt growth would stabilize next year, since demand for home mortgage lending was expected to be strong, led by apartments under construction that had already been sold, despite policy efforts to curb household debt.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

259

externally, the member noted the growing concerns about the us-china trade dispute, expressing the opinion that if trade protectionism became more globally widespread, consumption and investment could be constrained greatly through strengthened risk aversion, although losses in exports stemming from already finalized trade sanctions were estimated to have been limited.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

616

after briefings by staff on ‘current economic developments in korea’, the monetary policy board (mpb) members covered the following areas: with regard to the global economy, members’ assessment was that chinese economic growth was continuing to slow down, with the nation’s exports declining, while the us economy was maintaining its recovery, with consumption, facilities investment and the housing market continuing to improve and employment growth accelerating, and the euro area was showing a modest recovery.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

114

the member commented that the price and growth trends and financial stability conditions would be considered together in a balanced manner in base rate rate operations going forward.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

795

another member expressed the opinion that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, as domestic economic conditions had not changed much from the previous month and the international financial markets had shown stability in the short term.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

338

the member went on to express the opinion that, given these factors, while the base rate should be maintained at the current level, it was necessary to closely monitor downside risks to the macroeconomy going forward.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

155

the member also expressed the view that, despite heightened international financial market volatility, financial instability seemed unlikely to spread to korea, thanks largely to korea’s sustained current account surplus and to sound financial conditions at korean financial institutions.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

186

- the monetary policy board of the bank of korea decided today to leave the base rate unchanged at 1.50% for the intermeeting period.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

222

meanwhile, the member stated that, in the fx market, the korean won to us dollar exchange rate, which had risen significantly, fell sharply, in line with improvement in investor sentiment, driven by expectations of an adjustment to the pace of rate hikes by the us federal reserve.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

162

on the employment front, the number of persons employed has continued its substantial uptrend, led by increases in the 50-and-above age group and in the service sector.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,014

862

the member added that this was attributable to the softened expectations of the u.s. federal reserve’s further rate hikes and adjustments in the pace of long-term bond issuance by the u.s. department of the treasury, and thanks to a weakened u.s. dollar.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

87

accordingly, the member projected that the growth rate for the year would be 1.4%, slightly lower than the february projection of 1.6%.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

569

on the global economic front, the member noted that global trade was showing a solid recovery despite existing risks such as uncertainties originating in china, slow recoveries in other emerging market economies, rising energy prices, and supply and demand imbalances.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

164

another member meanwhile expressed concerns about the continued, albeit slight, rise in mortgage loans under the influence of low lending rates.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

90

the member projected that, while the domestic economy would maintain a slowing trend for some time, it would gradually recover in the second half of this year.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,023

843

to sharp rises in the prices of some agricultural and livestock products.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

945

most members expressed concerns about issues such as the contractions in consumer and investor confidence and the weakening of consumption due to structural factors, while some noted the possibility of a further delay in the economic recovery going forward.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

775

they forecast that the economic recovery would be maintained, driven largely by the economic recovery centered around advanced countries, and the restoration of consumer and investor confidence.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,014

762

one member, while noting that there still was a possibility of international financial market volatility heightening with monetary policies in major advanced countries diverging, expressed the opinion that it would be better to keep a close watch on the monetary policy implementation by major advanced countries and the movements of international financial market price variables going forward, while closely monitoring their influence on the domestic economy.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

354

the member mentioned that, led by the buoyancy of the it sector, exports and facilities investment would likely contribute significantly to korea’s economic growth, and this trend was expected to continue next year.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

748

the member’s assessment was that, although the accommodative fiscal policy had been acting as a buffer against the real neutral interest rate decline, this would have only a limited effect, considering the sluggish income and inflation indicators.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

29

concerning the domestic economy, members’ evaluation was that it was continuing to grow at its potential level with the steady growth of private consumption and exports, although facilities and construction investment had been going through corrections.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

840

he then noted that the government’s policy focus would be placed on such areas as price stability, boosting domestic demand and expanding the social safety net.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,011

544

the member took the view that the sluggishness in the global economy could ease somewhat toward the second half of the year, boosted by the normalization of china’s economic activity and improvements in the it industry, but that it would not be easy to expect any rapid economic recovery due to the spillover effects of the short-term surge in interest rates on the financial sector and the real economy.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

287

long-term market interest rates have risen, in response mainly to expectations of a policy rate hike by the us federal reserve and of an increased volume of korean treasury bond issuance.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

727

with regard to prices, members noted that consumer price inflation stood at 1.4%, lower than in the previous month, and forecast that it would remain at a low level for the time being.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,014

703

meanwhile, the member’s evaluation was that housing price growth had accelerated, particularly in seoul and its surrounding areas, and home purchase sentiment and expectations of higher housing prices were also rising again.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

626

the member also stated that, with the recent inflation pressures attributable largely to supply-side factors, producer prices were rising faster than consumer prices.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

446

the member added that facilities investment was showing faster-than-expected growth, while the correction in construction investment was proceeding at a modest pace and therefore was unlikely to constrain macroeconomic recovery.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,017

207

looking at recent price conditions, the member saw that, as factors pointed to as upside risks such as an ongoing upward trend in commodity prices and prolonged global supply bottlenecks were materializing, strong upward trends in prices were witnessed across core items.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

466

the member projected that the domestic economy would likely continue to improve modestly, with a weaker consumption recovery, but with ongoing strong exports.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

605

going forward as well, many members expected the domestic economy to remain on an upward track, led by exports.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

75

meanwhile, one member took the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, in overall consideration of factors such as household debt that cause financial instability and the heightened uncertainties concerning domestic and overseas conditions, despite a slight increase in downside risks to the recent real economy and next year’s inflation.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

16

in determining the monetary policy direction in these macroeconomic conditions, the member took notice of the following matters.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,021

428

the member saw that the global economy was maintaining growth above its potential and continuing to show a modest expansionary phase.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

98

the member presented the opinion that, particularly since consumer price inflation had run in the 0% range for two years in a row and the trend of recovery in consumption was expected to be delayed due to the resurgence of covid-19, present conditions did not give rise to concerns about upward inflationary pressures over a medium-term horizon.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

960

the moderate recovery in the euro area had continued, bolstered by increased production, while economic growth in china had continued to slow.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

485

concerning inflation, members saw that consumer price inflation had declined sharply, due mainly to a decline in petroleum product prices, and expected that it would fluctuate for some time below 1 percent amid modest demand-side inflationary pressures.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

538

fourth, there was still substantial spare capacity in both production and employment, with the manufacturing operation ratio remaining at a low level and broad labour underutilization indicator unemployment rate increasing.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

572

the member added that we had gained clear insight into how substantial fiscal expenditures, which had inevitably heightened during covid, had impacted inflation.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

61

he pointed out that, although foreign portfolio investment funds had experienced large outflows in july and the won had depreciated against the dollar, this was attributable to a weakening of the won in line with the global strength of the us dollar, and to some emes’ need to secure foreign currency liquidity, rather than to changes in korea’s economic fundamentals.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,015

689

long term market interest rates have declined in response to the planned reduction in the volume of treasury bond issuance and foreigners' sustained bond purchases.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

615

recoveries in major advanced economies to have exhibited signs of being somewhat delayed, while emerging market economies continue to show favorable performances.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,011

976

the member, however, emphasized that a close watch should be kept on the impacts of the recently introduced anti-graft law and the government measures to stabilize the housing market.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

260

looking ahead, the board sees global economic growth and global financial markets as likely to be affected largely by global inflation movements, monetary policy changes in major countries, geopolitical risks, and covid-19 restrictions in major countries.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

948

the member thus presented the opinion that, given this point, it would be necessary to decide the pace of tightening cautiously going forward, examining the effect of base rate hikes so far and keeping a close watch on the developments of factors causing domestic and overseas uncertainties.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

518

the member emphasized that attention should be paid to the possibility that price variable volatility would rise again and household and corporate credit risks would increase in the event of a delay in economic recovery due to prolongation of the pandemic.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

779

the moderate economic recovery in the us to have been sustained but economic activities in the euro area to have been unable to shake off their sluggishness, while emerging market countries have shown continuing economic growth.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

46

one member presented the view that it would be desirable to keep the base rate at its current the member saw that, as trade disputes had escalated and political uncertainties had heightened since the previous mpb meeting, volatility in the global financial markets had increased and the trend of low growth had become further entrenched.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

527

the member thus expressed the opinion that the government should provide guarantees for solvency risks in advance to allow the central bank to preemptively respond.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

377

many members mentioned that, in the international financial markets, with global interest rates showing stable trends due to the easing of concerns about early qe tapering by the us federal reserve, stock prices had risen sharply.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,013

5

european countries, on the other hand, have been simultaneously experiencing both declining inflation and sluggish growth due to a stagnation in labor productivity resulting from the sluggish manufacturing sector and to a delay in any recovery in demand.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

956

although korea does not have large trade volumes with russia and ukraine, negative supply shocks might be seen through higher commodity prices, and negative demand shocks via an indirect route through for instance the eu.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

864

the member noted that, despite the substantial increase in the government’s transfer payments, the decline in household consumption growth has not been eased.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

861

taking these points into overall consideration, the member saw it desirable to maintain the base rate at the current level of 3.5% at this meeting.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,024

48

the member noted that, even if consumer price inflation for this year rose to around 2%, as projected by the research department, consumer price inflation for 2019 and 2020 was only 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, and core inflation would remain at the pressures was not a matter of concern, and inflation expectations implied in long-term interest rates were not high.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

256