gtfintechlab/bank_of_korea · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 39 700	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the member assessed that the domestic economy continued to recover and private consumption was picking up rapidly boosted by the rising vaccination rate, the easing of social-distancing measures and the implementation of the supplementary budget.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	511
looking at financial conditions, the member evaluated that volatility had increased considerably, as market interest rates were rising significantly on changes in expectations for monetary policy at home and abroad and stock prices had been sensitive to changes in the international political landscape.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	738
another member noted that, in view of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of the korean economy, such as the excessive household debt level and low corporate profitability, as a precaution against further expansions of financial unrest in emerging market countries there was a need to thoroughly prepare measures in advance for responding to any sudden reversal of foreign capital flows.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,013	307
regarding the housing market, sales prices in seoul and its surrounding areas maintained their level of the previous month while the uptrend of those in the rest of the country slowed.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	83
after briefings by staff on 'current economic developments in korea' and the 'financial markets', the discussions by members of the monetary policy committee (mpc) covered the following areas: most members assessed that the global economy was sustaining its recovery overall, but that uncertainties were deepening further due to latent risk factors.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	488
this was because, although a slight downward shift in the growth path in line with the export shock from sluggish external demand was estimated to have brought about the widening of the negative gdp gap, domestic demand was expected to show a modest recovery due to improved economic sentiment, along with the gradual easing of export sluggishness.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	566
meanwhile, some members raised concerns about the possibility of low inflation affecting inflation expectations.	dovish	not forward looking	uncertain	2,019	317
however, the member presented the opinion that, since the domestic and overseas policy environments remained fluid and macro indicators had become more volatile, it was necessary to take a little more time to monitor the relevant indicators to see if the recent developments would lead to meaningful recovery or would be mere one-off events.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	244
the member assessed that, with the global economy continuing to improve, the korean economy had maintained its trend of recovery led by exports, and private consumption had been recovering at a modest pace.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	713
meanwhile, the member added that sustained high rates of growth in various liquidity indicators including m2 implied that financial conditions were still very accommodative.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	403
overall growth in the u.s. is favorable, although there are signs of a slowdown in consumption, and the eurozone economy is recovering, led by consumption, amid political instability.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	357
- in the financial markets, long-term and short-term market interest rates and stock prices have shown a sharp run-up in line with the improvements in economic activity.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	674
however, the member evaluated that, given that there were concerns about downside risks to growth and private debt repayment burdens of the vulnerable groups in particular had increased, it would be desirable to reduce the degree of base rate increase to 25 basis points this time.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	119
the member added that concerns about the spread of the irael-hamas conflict had been somewhat mitigated, leading to falls in global oil prices.	irrelevant	forward looking	certain	2,023	72
in conclusion, the member expressed the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at its current level of 1.75 percent at this meeting and keep an eye on future developments, and went on to argue that it would be desirable to carefully decide whether to further adjust the degree of monetary policy accommodation after comprehensively evaluating economic growth and inflation trends as well as changes in financial stability risks, based on economic indicators.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	264
such as interest rates, stock prices and exchange rates have widened, due mainly to the effects of external risk factors including the sovereign debt problems in europe.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	914
with regard to financial stability, the member’s evaluation was that some changes were witnessed to the previous year’s trend of household debt growth being led by leasehold deposit loans and credit loans extended by banks.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	359
the member expressed concerns that financial imbalances had been worsening, as the continued risk-taking tendencies and yield-seeking behavior of economic agents had caused household debt to build up and asset prices to rise significantly.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	169
the main details of the mpb members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the changes in the domestic and international economic environments, it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level of 1.25 percent for the intermeeting period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,016	560
however, the member judged uncertainties surrounding the growth path to be heightened further, since major countries were changing their monetary policy stances rapidly to respond to higher inflation since the second half of last year, and geopolitical risks surrounding ukraine were also increasing.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	531
looking at employment, which had been recently recovering somewhat, the member noted that employment in the services sector was anticipated to improve, while that in the manufacturing sector was forecast to remain lackluster for the time being, and careful monitoring was required in this regard.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	174
after briefings by staff on _recent economic developments,[2)]_ _fx and international_ board (mpb) members covered the following areas: members’ evaluation was that the domestic economy would show growth generally consistent with the previous forecast.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	225
some members noted that individual perceptions of prices and inflation expectations had also increased, in line with a substantial number of items in the cpi basket rising significantly and processed food and dining-out prices growing.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	575
the member noted that, with respect to private consumption growth, it had shifted to a trend of recovery from a prolonged downturn in the second half of last year and had exceeded gdp growth year-on-year until the first half of this year, but the savings ratio in the household sector still remained high, and thus it was uncertain whether the growth could be maintained.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	243
the member also added that the accommodative monetary policy stance should be kept unchanged in order to supplement and support an expansionary fiscal policy.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	589
the member also noted the ongoing corrections in facilities investment, which had shown a sharp increase last year in the semiconductor sector in particular, and in construction investment, which had remained buoyant for the past several years.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,018	556
the member, however, presented the view that the recent situation, with no visible change in prices and a large slowdown in employment growth, implied that aggregate demand was not expanding.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	677
in this regard, the member judged that the possibility of a real-financial vicious circle, in which financial market unrest adds to the real economic shock, had been prevented to some extent.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	416
regarding the financial markets, the member mentioned that, although household debt growth had slowed, credit to the corporate sector had maintained strong growth and liquidity growth remained at a high level.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	893
concerning inflation, the member mentioned that attention should be paid to the fact that core inflation with regulated prices excluded was projected at around 2% for the second half of this year and the first half of next year.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	872
the member then noted that, with such conditions making it difficult to be optimistic about the overall economy, underlying inflation was unlikely to converge toward the 2% target.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	883
therefore, the member argued that the bank should actively consult with the government to ensure that fiscal policy could be operated in a more expansionary manner.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	173
looking at an adjusted projection by the research department, the member expected that the growth gap would turn negative, while the inflation gap would remain in positive territory.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	120
in this regard, in the current situation in which demand-side inflation pressures were weak but sustained, it would be desirable to adjust incentives for savings and investment toward the level of the neutral interest rate to curb financial imbalances, and since this would coincide with an increase in fiscal expenditure for the vulnerable, it would not cause any significant changes in aggregate demand-pull pressures.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	261
the member noted that consumer price inflation declined to 4.2% in march.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	304
moreover, the member added that reviewing the soundness of financial institutions would be necessary, considering that it had been almost two years since the policy rate hike stance began, and that the possibility of a tightening stance would continue for the time being.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	913
one member noted, however, that it was rather premature to consider the improvements in some economic indicators as implying a shift to economic recovery from the second half of this year, and that no clear momentum driving an economic recovery domestically was seen.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	512
the member went on to point out, however, that the recent housing market movements had not been serious enough to raise concerns in terms of monetary policy.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,020	973
the main details of the mpc members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: the majority of members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international economic environment and the future outlooks for both, it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	127
the member also added that the pace of recovery in private consumption has been slowing due to an aggravating burden for households to make principal and interest repayments, while inflation appears to have been slowing, as well.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	313
looking at financial stability, the member assessed the exchange rate and capital flows as showing limited volatility thanks to improved external soundness, although stock market volatility had expanded due to a likely early tapering by the us federal reserve and the russia-ukraine conflict.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	841
on the domestic front, the member’s judgment was that, since sluggish domestic demand had not shown any sign of recovery, for the time being it would be difficult to expect any significant economic recovery beyond a technical rebound.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	901
the member also assessed domestic economic activities to have shown improvement, as the sluggishness in private consumption had eased somewhat and exports and facilities investment had increased.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	349
one member expressed the opinion that it would be desirable to raise the base rate to 0.75% from the current level of 0.50%.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	830
economy has weakened due to the resurgence of covid-19.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	156
facilities investment has somewhat slowed due to global supply constraints.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,022	723
going forward, the committee anticipates that the negative output gap in the domestic economy will persist for a considerable time, due mostly to the prolongation of the euro area fiscal crisis and to the delay in recovery of the global economy.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	322
the main details of the mpb members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: most members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international financial and economic environments, it would be desirable to keep the base rate at its current level of 0.50%, while one member argued for raising it by one member presented the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at the current level of 0.50%.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	687
the committee expects the pace of global economic recovery to be very modest going forward and judges the downside risks to growth to be large, owing chiefly to the euro area fiscal crisis and to the fiscal consolidation issue in the us.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,012	376
the member judged the financial markets to still remain accommodative.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	573
the member noted that, in reflection of such sluggish domestic demand, inflation was declining as well.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	385
the member took the view that this was attributable substantially to base-period effects and government support measures, but the trickle-down effects of wide-ranging export strength and the wealth effects of asset price rises were also responsible.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,021	827
considering the matters mentioned above, the member found the current macroeconomic policy mix and stance to be appropriate.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	755
after briefings by staff on _recent economic developments_ (july 2022),[2)] _fx and_ monetary policy board (mpb) members covered the following areas.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,022	721
the member judged the uncertainty of the economic outlook to have heightened further as the unexpected us presidential election result had cast uncertainty on whether the world trade volume would recover, although the growth pattern of recoveries in exports and facilities investment serving as a buffer against slower construction investment was expected for 2017.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	370
one member expressed the opinion that, while maintaining the base rate at its current 1.25 percent level for the intermeeting period, the bank of korea should keep a close watch on changes in financial and economic conditions at home and abroad, and in particular on developments of domestic and overseas risk factors and their impacts.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	600
the member however emphasized that it would be necessary to choose appropriately among interest rate-focused monetary policy instruments in response to inflation and among market stabilization measures in pursuit of financial stability that would be fit for the situation and purpose.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	255
even though construction investment has continued to be subdued and facilities investment has decreased, exports have sustained their buoyancy and consumption has steadily increased.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,010	230
the main details of the mpb members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: the majority of members presented the view that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international financial and economic environments, it would be desirable to lower the base rate by one member presented the view that it would be appropriate to lower the base rate from the current 1.25% to 0.75%.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	711
in this process the board will thoroughly assess developments related to covid-19 as well as the effects of the policy measures taken in response to the pandemic, while paying attention to changes in financial stability conditions such as fund flows to asset markets and household debt growth.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	877
rate by 25 basis points, from 3.25% to 3.50%.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	964
the member mentioned that, given the role of chinese manufacturing industries in the global supply chain and global trade flows, and the amount of local production by major korean enterprises, production setbacks in china caused by the covid-19 outbreak were direct and indirect risk factors for the domestic economy.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	771
however, the won-dollar exchange rate is unlikely to experience sudden fluctuations, as the u.s. dollar remains strong amid ample global dollar liquidity.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	460
the member expressed the view that this had also been witnessed during the period of economic downturn around 2012 and seemed to be related with population aging, a structural factor of the korean economy.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,019	111
the member mentioned that it would be necessary to clearly communicate whether the focus of diagnosis of, and prescription for, economic conditions would be placed upon a return to the potential growth rate, upon adaptation to the new normal, or upon responding to a new crisis.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	122
the member stated that government bond yields fell sharply due mainly to the sharp decline in u.s. treasury bond yields, and short-term market interest rates also declined significantly.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	345
the member expressed the opinion that, if the trend of an easing of disease control measures being followed by a rebound in consumption repeated itself, the recent resurgence of the pandemic would likely to have a limited impact on aggregate demand or the underlying economic trend over the medium to long term horizon.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	634
declines in leading indicators for two consecutive months.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,010	692
he added that, as the base rate was being cut in parallel with the easing of the ltv and dti regulations to normalize the housing market, it would be advisable to closely monitor the real estate market in the future, and to make the required preparations for implementing macroprudential measures if needed.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	22
some pointed out the possibility that maintaining the base rate at its current level, to which it had been steeply cut to counteract the crisis, might give rise to serious side effects such as herd behavior in the markets, adding that if this should undermine market confidence in the monetary authorities, they would have to shoulder a very heavy cost burden.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,010	780
first, the member noted that although the real economy was showing export-oriented and facilities investment-led growth, the buoyancy of exports had been confined to the it industry, mainly in semiconductors, and since such strength was attributable to increases in unit export prices rather than growth in export volume, it was not likely to stimulate much additional production in related industries.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,017	668
however, the member mentioned that two conditions have to be met first if there is to be a rate cut.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	994
the member pointed out that, on the external front, there was a low possibility of financial instability in emes spreading to korea in consideration of its favorable external soundness, but the possibility of continued monetary policy normalization by the us federal reserve causing instability in korea’s capital flows and domestic financial market price variables could not be ruled out.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	443
the member diagnosed that, given recent economic conditions, growth for this year could run below 2% and it was difficult to be optimistic about economic recovery for next year.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	267
the main details of the mpc members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: most members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international economic environments and the future outlooks for both, it would be desirable this month to cut the base rate by 0.25 of a percentage point from its current level for the intermeeting period.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	701
the same member then expressed the view that, considering the time lag before the effects of the august base rate cut materialized, and the possibility of an increase in household debt risk, it was necessary to maintain the base rate at its current level for the month, and to keep a close watch on the future movements of economic indicators.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,014	926
the member projected that the domestic economic growth would remain at a lower level than initially expected, affected mainly by the global economic slowdown and the worsening of financial conditions at home and abroad.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	170
the member added that delinquency rates of some non-bank financial institutions, which had significantly increased their exposure to real estate financing, had also continued to increase sharply.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	272
the member added that the slowdown of the consumption recovery was not expected to continue past the middle of the fourth quarter, since vaccines had been proven to be effective in preventing severe cases, and the domestic vaccination rollout had gathered pace of late.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	65
moving forward, the domestic economy is expected to show a moderate growth trend as robust export momentum continues and as sluggishness in domestic demand gradually eases due to slowing inflation and improving household real income conditions.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	151
the member’s evaluation was that the won’s depreciation reflected mainly changes in the macroeconomic conditions at home and abroad and was not serious enough to raise concerns about a fall in korea’s international credit standing.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,019	756
as the recovery in the korean economy is expected to be slow and inflationary pressures on the demand-side are forecast to remain weak due to the covid-19 pandemic, the board will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,020	939
the member was also concerned that core inflation was running within the 0% range and the trend of decline in inflation expectations was continuing.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	922
the member expressed concerns that, after having improved slightly since october, face-to-face services industries might shrink again in line with the recent continuous growth in the number of domestic confirmed cases and the strengthening of social distancing measures.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	451
he then argued that the base rate should be adjusted slightly downward from its current level, on the judgement that a succession of policy rate cuts would be more effective as a preemptive policy response.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,014	391
one member presented the view that it would be desirable to keep the base rate at the current the member evaluated that, looking at global economic conditions, trends of economic growth in major countries excluding the us had slowed, and world trade had also remained sluggish.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	204
looking at sectors, the member saw that, concerning private consumption, consumption of face-to-face services had been sluggish due mainly to containment measures, and overseas spending was unlikely to reverse course for a considerable time.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	229
the member however mentioned that, since a rise in interest rates was highly likely to increase interest repayment burdens on vulnerable groups at a time when there remained high uncertainties related to covid-19, it would be necessary to strengthen coordination with other policies such as fiscal policy and the bank intermediated suppor t facility.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	299
the member noted that global trade had remained sluggish, probably due to the fact that the global economic recovery since last year had been driven primarily by the services sector, and went on to state that global oil prices had risen, boosted by the extension of production cuts by opec+.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,023	276
ensure that the recovery of economic growth continues and consumer price inflation approaches the target level over a medium-term horizon, while paying attention to financial stability.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,016	486
the member raised the concern that excessively high leverage and housing prices could reduce consumption and investment capacities and worsen economic inequalities in the long term.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	534
the member, meanwhile, added that a shock to capital flows stemming from an inversion of the us and korean policy rates would likely be absorbed smoothly through flexible exchange rate adjustments based on korea’s favorable external soundness, including current account surplus and ample foreign reserves, accumulated for about last 20 years.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	978
members diagnosed that volatility in global financial markets had increased, with government bond yields and stock prices falling substantially in major countries.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	884
in particular, the member commented that growth of monetary aggregates such as m2 and lf had been on the rise, as funding to corporations had expanded thanks to improved sales performances and the easing of credit risk aversion, and as household and sole proprietor loans had also been increasing steadily.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	541
the member took the view that it would be necessary in this regard to adjust the degree of monetary easing and change the policy stance to meet changing financial and economic conditions.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	983
the member also took the view that advanced countries had experienced a sharp drop in the propensity to consume at around retirement age, and the fact that the baby boomer generation, which accounts for a substantial share of households in korea, was approaching retirement could be a factor causing household consumption to contract.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,019	969
another member assessed the financial and foreign exchange sectors to be very sound, with the external debt profile and the foreign currency situation greatly improved compared to past financial crises, and the capacity to withstand rapid capital outflows thus heightened.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	972
however, the member noted that, despite the unprecedentedly low base rate, mortgage lending rates had already risen above the pre-pandemic level, and the housing transaction volume and new lending related to housing sales had been gradually declining of late.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	980
concerning the direction of economic policy for the following year, the 1st vice minister disclosed that the government planned to pursue four major policy objectives: achieving macroeconomic stability and improving the fabric of the economy; revitalizing the economies of ordinary people and enhancing the quality of their lives; strengthening the base for domestic demand and developing new engines for growth; and enhancing korea's national profile while reinforcing its international cooperation.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,010	305
the board judges that the additional high and is projected to be above the target level for a considerable time, although the domestic economic growth rate is expected to be below the november forecast.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	348

the member assessed that the domestic economy continued to recover and private consumption was picking up rapidly boosted by the rising vaccination rate, the easing of social-distancing measures and the implementation of the supplementary budget.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

511

looking at financial conditions, the member evaluated that volatility had increased considerably, as market interest rates were rising significantly on changes in expectations for monetary policy at home and abroad and stock prices had been sensitive to changes in the international political landscape.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

738

another member noted that, in view of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of the korean economy, such as the excessive household debt level and low corporate profitability, as a precaution against further expansions of financial unrest in emerging market countries there was a need to thoroughly prepare measures in advance for responding to any sudden reversal of foreign capital flows.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,013

307

regarding the housing market, sales prices in seoul and its surrounding areas maintained their level of the previous month while the uptrend of those in the rest of the country slowed.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

83

after briefings by staff on 'current economic developments in korea' and the 'financial markets', the discussions by members of the monetary policy committee (mpc) covered the following areas: most members assessed that the global economy was sustaining its recovery overall, but that uncertainties were deepening further due to latent risk factors.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

488

this was because, although a slight downward shift in the growth path in line with the export shock from sluggish external demand was estimated to have brought about the widening of the negative gdp gap, domestic demand was expected to show a modest recovery due to improved economic sentiment, along with the gradual easing of export sluggishness.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

566

meanwhile, some members raised concerns about the possibility of low inflation affecting inflation expectations.

dovish

not forward looking

uncertain

2,019

317

however, the member presented the opinion that, since the domestic and overseas policy environments remained fluid and macro indicators had become more volatile, it was necessary to take a little more time to monitor the relevant indicators to see if the recent developments would lead to meaningful recovery or would be mere one-off events.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

244

the member assessed that, with the global economy continuing to improve, the korean economy had maintained its trend of recovery led by exports, and private consumption had been recovering at a modest pace.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

713

meanwhile, the member added that sustained high rates of growth in various liquidity indicators including m2 implied that financial conditions were still very accommodative.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

403

overall growth in the u.s. is favorable, although there are signs of a slowdown in consumption, and the eurozone economy is recovering, led by consumption, amid political instability.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

357

- in the financial markets, long-term and short-term market interest rates and stock prices have shown a sharp run-up in line with the improvements in economic activity.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

674

however, the member evaluated that, given that there were concerns about downside risks to growth and private debt repayment burdens of the vulnerable groups in particular had increased, it would be desirable to reduce the degree of base rate increase to 25 basis points this time.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

119

the member added that concerns about the spread of the irael-hamas conflict had been somewhat mitigated, leading to falls in global oil prices.

irrelevant

forward looking

certain

2,023

72

in conclusion, the member expressed the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at its current level of 1.75 percent at this meeting and keep an eye on future developments, and went on to argue that it would be desirable to carefully decide whether to further adjust the degree of monetary policy accommodation after comprehensively evaluating economic growth and inflation trends as well as changes in financial stability risks, based on economic indicators.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

264

such as interest rates, stock prices and exchange rates have widened, due mainly to the effects of external risk factors including the sovereign debt problems in europe.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

914

with regard to financial stability, the member’s evaluation was that some changes were witnessed to the previous year’s trend of household debt growth being led by leasehold deposit loans and credit loans extended by banks.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

359

the member expressed concerns that financial imbalances had been worsening, as the continued risk-taking tendencies and yield-seeking behavior of economic agents had caused household debt to build up and asset prices to rise significantly.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

169

the main details of the mpb members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the changes in the domestic and international economic environments, it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level of 1.25 percent for the intermeeting period.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,016

560

however, the member judged uncertainties surrounding the growth path to be heightened further, since major countries were changing their monetary policy stances rapidly to respond to higher inflation since the second half of last year, and geopolitical risks surrounding ukraine were also increasing.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

531

looking at employment, which had been recently recovering somewhat, the member noted that employment in the services sector was anticipated to improve, while that in the manufacturing sector was forecast to remain lackluster for the time being, and careful monitoring was required in this regard.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

174

after briefings by staff on _recent economic developments,[2)]_ _fx and international_ board (mpb) members covered the following areas: members’ evaluation was that the domestic economy would show growth generally consistent with the previous forecast.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

225

some members noted that individual perceptions of prices and inflation expectations had also increased, in line with a substantial number of items in the cpi basket rising significantly and processed food and dining-out prices growing.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

575

the member noted that, with respect to private consumption growth, it had shifted to a trend of recovery from a prolonged downturn in the second half of last year and had exceeded gdp growth year-on-year until the first half of this year, but the savings ratio in the household sector still remained high, and thus it was uncertain whether the growth could be maintained.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

243

the member also added that the accommodative monetary policy stance should be kept unchanged in order to supplement and support an expansionary fiscal policy.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

589

the member also noted the ongoing corrections in facilities investment, which had shown a sharp increase last year in the semiconductor sector in particular, and in construction investment, which had remained buoyant for the past several years.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,018

556

the member, however, presented the view that the recent situation, with no visible change in prices and a large slowdown in employment growth, implied that aggregate demand was not expanding.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

677

in this regard, the member judged that the possibility of a real-financial vicious circle, in which financial market unrest adds to the real economic shock, had been prevented to some extent.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

416

regarding the financial markets, the member mentioned that, although household debt growth had slowed, credit to the corporate sector had maintained strong growth and liquidity growth remained at a high level.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

893

concerning inflation, the member mentioned that attention should be paid to the fact that core inflation with regulated prices excluded was projected at around 2% for the second half of this year and the first half of next year.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

872

the member then noted that, with such conditions making it difficult to be optimistic about the overall economy, underlying inflation was unlikely to converge toward the 2% target.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,017

883

therefore, the member argued that the bank should actively consult with the government to ensure that fiscal policy could be operated in a more expansionary manner.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

173

looking at an adjusted projection by the research department, the member expected that the growth gap would turn negative, while the inflation gap would remain in positive territory.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

120

in this regard, in the current situation in which demand-side inflation pressures were weak but sustained, it would be desirable to adjust incentives for savings and investment toward the level of the neutral interest rate to curb financial imbalances, and since this would coincide with an increase in fiscal expenditure for the vulnerable, it would not cause any significant changes in aggregate demand-pull pressures.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

261

the member noted that consumer price inflation declined to 4.2% in march.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

304

moreover, the member added that reviewing the soundness of financial institutions would be necessary, considering that it had been almost two years since the policy rate hike stance began, and that the possibility of a tightening stance would continue for the time being.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

913

one member noted, however, that it was rather premature to consider the improvements in some economic indicators as implying a shift to economic recovery from the second half of this year, and that no clear momentum driving an economic recovery domestically was seen.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

512

the member went on to point out, however, that the recent housing market movements had not been serious enough to raise concerns in terms of monetary policy.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,020

973

the main details of the mpc members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: the majority of members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international economic environment and the future outlooks for both, it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

127

the member also added that the pace of recovery in private consumption has been slowing due to an aggravating burden for households to make principal and interest repayments, while inflation appears to have been slowing, as well.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

313

looking at financial stability, the member assessed the exchange rate and capital flows as showing limited volatility thanks to improved external soundness, although stock market volatility had expanded due to a likely early tapering by the us federal reserve and the russia-ukraine conflict.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

841

on the domestic front, the member’s judgment was that, since sluggish domestic demand had not shown any sign of recovery, for the time being it would be difficult to expect any significant economic recovery beyond a technical rebound.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

901

the member also assessed domestic economic activities to have shown improvement, as the sluggishness in private consumption had eased somewhat and exports and facilities investment had increased.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

349

one member expressed the opinion that it would be desirable to raise the base rate to 0.75% from the current level of 0.50%.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

830

economy has weakened due to the resurgence of covid-19.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

156

facilities investment has somewhat slowed due to global supply constraints.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,022

723

going forward, the committee anticipates that the negative output gap in the domestic economy will persist for a considerable time, due mostly to the prolongation of the euro area fiscal crisis and to the delay in recovery of the global economy.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

322

the main details of the mpb members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: most members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international financial and economic environments, it would be desirable to keep the base rate at its current level of 0.50%, while one member argued for raising it by one member presented the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at the current level of 0.50%.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

687

the committee expects the pace of global economic recovery to be very modest going forward and judges the downside risks to growth to be large, owing chiefly to the euro area fiscal crisis and to the fiscal consolidation issue in the us.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,012

376

the member judged the financial markets to still remain accommodative.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

573

the member noted that, in reflection of such sluggish domestic demand, inflation was declining as well.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

385

the member took the view that this was attributable substantially to base-period effects and government support measures, but the trickle-down effects of wide-ranging export strength and the wealth effects of asset price rises were also responsible.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,021

827

considering the matters mentioned above, the member found the current macroeconomic policy mix and stance to be appropriate.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

755

after briefings by staff on _recent economic developments_ (july 2022),[2)] _fx and_ monetary policy board (mpb) members covered the following areas.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,022

721

the member judged the uncertainty of the economic outlook to have heightened further as the unexpected us presidential election result had cast uncertainty on whether the world trade volume would recover, although the growth pattern of recoveries in exports and facilities investment serving as a buffer against slower construction investment was expected for 2017.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

370

one member expressed the opinion that, while maintaining the base rate at its current 1.25 percent level for the intermeeting period, the bank of korea should keep a close watch on changes in financial and economic conditions at home and abroad, and in particular on developments of domestic and overseas risk factors and their impacts.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

600

the member however emphasized that it would be necessary to choose appropriately among interest rate-focused monetary policy instruments in response to inflation and among market stabilization measures in pursuit of financial stability that would be fit for the situation and purpose.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

255

even though construction investment has continued to be subdued and facilities investment has decreased, exports have sustained their buoyancy and consumption has steadily increased.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,010

230

the main details of the mpb members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: the majority of members presented the view that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international financial and economic environments, it would be desirable to lower the base rate by one member presented the view that it would be appropriate to lower the base rate from the current 1.25% to 0.75%.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

711

in this process the board will thoroughly assess developments related to covid-19 as well as the effects of the policy measures taken in response to the pandemic, while paying attention to changes in financial stability conditions such as fund flows to asset markets and household debt growth.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

877

rate by 25 basis points, from 3.25% to 3.50%.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

964

the member mentioned that, given the role of chinese manufacturing industries in the global supply chain and global trade flows, and the amount of local production by major korean enterprises, production setbacks in china caused by the covid-19 outbreak were direct and indirect risk factors for the domestic economy.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

771

however, the won-dollar exchange rate is unlikely to experience sudden fluctuations, as the u.s. dollar remains strong amid ample global dollar liquidity.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

460

the member expressed the view that this had also been witnessed during the period of economic downturn around 2012 and seemed to be related with population aging, a structural factor of the korean economy.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,019

111

the member mentioned that it would be necessary to clearly communicate whether the focus of diagnosis of, and prescription for, economic conditions would be placed upon a return to the potential growth rate, upon adaptation to the new normal, or upon responding to a new crisis.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

122

the member stated that government bond yields fell sharply due mainly to the sharp decline in u.s. treasury bond yields, and short-term market interest rates also declined significantly.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

345

the member expressed the opinion that, if the trend of an easing of disease control measures being followed by a rebound in consumption repeated itself, the recent resurgence of the pandemic would likely to have a limited impact on aggregate demand or the underlying economic trend over the medium to long term horizon.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

634

declines in leading indicators for two consecutive months.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,010

692

he added that, as the base rate was being cut in parallel with the easing of the ltv and dti regulations to normalize the housing market, it would be advisable to closely monitor the real estate market in the future, and to make the required preparations for implementing macroprudential measures if needed.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

22

some pointed out the possibility that maintaining the base rate at its current level, to which it had been steeply cut to counteract the crisis, might give rise to serious side effects such as herd behavior in the markets, adding that if this should undermine market confidence in the monetary authorities, they would have to shoulder a very heavy cost burden.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,010

780

first, the member noted that although the real economy was showing export-oriented and facilities investment-led growth, the buoyancy of exports had been confined to the it industry, mainly in semiconductors, and since such strength was attributable to increases in unit export prices rather than growth in export volume, it was not likely to stimulate much additional production in related industries.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,017

668

however, the member mentioned that two conditions have to be met first if there is to be a rate cut.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

994

the member pointed out that, on the external front, there was a low possibility of financial instability in emes spreading to korea in consideration of its favorable external soundness, but the possibility of continued monetary policy normalization by the us federal reserve causing instability in korea’s capital flows and domestic financial market price variables could not be ruled out.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

443

the member diagnosed that, given recent economic conditions, growth for this year could run below 2% and it was difficult to be optimistic about economic recovery for next year.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

267

the main details of the mpc members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: most members shared the opinion that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international economic environments and the future outlooks for both, it would be desirable this month to cut the base rate by 0.25 of a percentage point from its current level for the intermeeting period.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,015

701

the same member then expressed the view that, considering the time lag before the effects of the august base rate cut materialized, and the possibility of an increase in household debt risk, it was necessary to maintain the base rate at its current level for the month, and to keep a close watch on the future movements of economic indicators.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,014

926

the member projected that the domestic economic growth would remain at a lower level than initially expected, affected mainly by the global economic slowdown and the worsening of financial conditions at home and abroad.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

170

the member added that delinquency rates of some non-bank financial institutions, which had significantly increased their exposure to real estate financing, had also continued to increase sharply.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

272

the member added that the slowdown of the consumption recovery was not expected to continue past the middle of the fourth quarter, since vaccines had been proven to be effective in preventing severe cases, and the domestic vaccination rollout had gathered pace of late.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

65

moving forward, the domestic economy is expected to show a moderate growth trend as robust export momentum continues and as sluggishness in domestic demand gradually eases due to slowing inflation and improving household real income conditions.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

151

the member’s evaluation was that the won’s depreciation reflected mainly changes in the macroeconomic conditions at home and abroad and was not serious enough to raise concerns about a fall in korea’s international credit standing.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,019

756

as the recovery in the korean economy is expected to be slow and inflationary pressures on the demand-side are forecast to remain weak due to the covid-19 pandemic, the board will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,020

939

the member was also concerned that core inflation was running within the 0% range and the trend of decline in inflation expectations was continuing.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

922

the member expressed concerns that, after having improved slightly since october, face-to-face services industries might shrink again in line with the recent continuous growth in the number of domestic confirmed cases and the strengthening of social distancing measures.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

451

he then argued that the base rate should be adjusted slightly downward from its current level, on the judgement that a succession of policy rate cuts would be more effective as a preemptive policy response.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,014

391

one member presented the view that it would be desirable to keep the base rate at the current the member evaluated that, looking at global economic conditions, trends of economic growth in major countries excluding the us had slowed, and world trade had also remained sluggish.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

204

looking at sectors, the member saw that, concerning private consumption, consumption of face-to-face services had been sluggish due mainly to containment measures, and overseas spending was unlikely to reverse course for a considerable time.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

229

the member however mentioned that, since a rise in interest rates was highly likely to increase interest repayment burdens on vulnerable groups at a time when there remained high uncertainties related to covid-19, it would be necessary to strengthen coordination with other policies such as fiscal policy and the bank intermediated suppor t facility.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

299

the member noted that global trade had remained sluggish, probably due to the fact that the global economic recovery since last year had been driven primarily by the services sector, and went on to state that global oil prices had risen, boosted by the extension of production cuts by opec+.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,023

276

ensure that the recovery of economic growth continues and consumer price inflation approaches the target level over a medium-term horizon, while paying attention to financial stability.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,016

486

the member raised the concern that excessively high leverage and housing prices could reduce consumption and investment capacities and worsen economic inequalities in the long term.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

534

the member, meanwhile, added that a shock to capital flows stemming from an inversion of the us and korean policy rates would likely be absorbed smoothly through flexible exchange rate adjustments based on korea’s favorable external soundness, including current account surplus and ample foreign reserves, accumulated for about last 20 years.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

978

members diagnosed that volatility in global financial markets had increased, with government bond yields and stock prices falling substantially in major countries.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

884

in particular, the member commented that growth of monetary aggregates such as m2 and lf had been on the rise, as funding to corporations had expanded thanks to improved sales performances and the easing of credit risk aversion, and as household and sole proprietor loans had also been increasing steadily.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

541

the member took the view that it would be necessary in this regard to adjust the degree of monetary easing and change the policy stance to meet changing financial and economic conditions.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

983

the member also took the view that advanced countries had experienced a sharp drop in the propensity to consume at around retirement age, and the fact that the baby boomer generation, which accounts for a substantial share of households in korea, was approaching retirement could be a factor causing household consumption to contract.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,019

969

another member assessed the financial and foreign exchange sectors to be very sound, with the external debt profile and the foreign currency situation greatly improved compared to past financial crises, and the capacity to withstand rapid capital outflows thus heightened.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

972

however, the member noted that, despite the unprecedentedly low base rate, mortgage lending rates had already risen above the pre-pandemic level, and the housing transaction volume and new lending related to housing sales had been gradually declining of late.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

980

concerning the direction of economic policy for the following year, the 1st vice minister disclosed that the government planned to pursue four major policy objectives: achieving macroeconomic stability and improving the fabric of the economy; revitalizing the economies of ordinary people and enhancing the quality of their lives; strengthening the base for domestic demand and developing new engines for growth; and enhancing korea's national profile while reinforcing its international cooperation.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,010

305

the board judges that the additional high and is projected to be above the target level for a considerable time, although the domestic economic growth rate is expected to be below the november forecast.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

348