Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
bank_of_korea

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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with regard to prices, the member noted that, amid ongoing pressure on the demand side, pressure on the supply side, including oil prices, exchange rates and wages, had increased further, and, as a result, consumer price inflation stood at 6.0% in june, the highest level since 1998.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
829
he opined as well that, since household debt and savings were two sides of the same coin, it was necessary to adopt a balanced stance on interest rate policy, taking both financial debt and savings into consideration.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
927
dissented from this decision, and argued that the base rate should be raised by 25 basis points.)
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
550
exports have continued to show solid growth on the back of the recovery in the it industry and are forecast to improve steadily.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
455
the pace of decline in inflation to be modest in the coming months, given stubbornly high inflation expectations, although factors such as declines in agricultural product prices and the base effect from last year will work to bring inflation down.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,011
766
among them, one member assessed that, although consumption and investment in the korean economy had been showing trends of modest improvement, exports had exhibited a larger-than-expected trend of decline, downside risks to domestic growth and prices had become greater due to the emergence of external uncertainties in line with the global economic slowdown, household debt had maintained strong growth, and volatility and unrest in the foreign exchange market had heightened.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
574
concerning the domestic economy, the member noted that some real indicators were showing mixed signals, just like those in the us, with private consumption remaining relatively strong, the pace of increase in the number of persons employed slowing, and manufacturing production, service production and exports showing sluggishness.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
421
members, meanwhile, assessed that, although prices of some financial assets had undergone corrections due to stronger expectations for policy rate hikes at home and abroad, financial conditions still remained accommodative.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
691
another member noted that efforts should be exerted to preemptively block the possibility of expected inflation working as a factor amplifying the second-round effects from supply shocks, and that there was a need to develop more active communication strategies, particularly given that the scope for operation of interest rate policy was limited.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,012
690
meanwhile, the member emphasized that, although the implementation of the measures for the management of household debt announced in august was expected to gradually curb the pace of household lending growth, it was necessary to continually keep a close watch on the trend of household lending given the existence of factors fueling an increase in lending demand, such as a buoyant seoul metropolitan housing market.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
650
one other member expressed the opinion that it would be desirable to keep the base rate unchanged from the current level for the intermeeting period.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
890
concerning some negative forecasts for major industries, the member stressed that the structural problems of those industries should be reviewed to expand their mid- to long-term growth potentials.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
954
however, the member expressed the need to determine the time and pace of an additional base rate hike depending on developments in economic and financial conditions.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
585
the member assessed inflation as nearing its target over a medium-term horizon amid weak but sustained demand-side pressures, and expected that a slight reduction of the accommodative monetary policy stance was unlikely to weaken demand-side pressures enough to have a significant effect on inflation but could contribute to curbing the widening of financial imbalances somewhat.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
519
members voiced concerns that, as household and business sentiments were contracting, growth in private consumption showed signs of weakening.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
520
the amount of increase in household loans has lessened, and the increase in housing prices has moderated in all parts of the country.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
10
concerning the price outlook as well, members anticipated that, although the cpi growth rate might slow somewhat on the back of government's micro-level efforts, upward pressures would remain high due mainly to increased inflation expectations.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
206
the member voiced concern that changes in the domestic and international economic environments had been worsening further since the last mpb meeting.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
819
meanwhile, the member noted that labor market conditions were partially improving, with the number of persons employed shifting to an increase in march, but had not reached pre-pandemic levels.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
753
with regard to prices, members noted that consumer price inflation had remained unchanged from the previous month’s 0.4%, and that core inflation excluding the prices of agricultural and petroleum products had fallen to slightly below the preceding month’s level at 2.0%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
491
looking at the estimates of output and inflation gaps based on the discussion above, the member judged that the bank of korea would have to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance, but unlike advanced countries that had experienced massive deleveraging since the global financial crisis in 2008, korea had seen steady household debt growth and thus financial stability was gaining even greater importance.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
543
labor market conditions have continued to improve, with a sustained year-on-year increase in the number of persons employed.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
666
in the u.s., the member noted that the consumption slowdown had continued moderately, and that economic growth had slowed at a lower-than-expected pace.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
308
looking at the overseas economic environments since the previous mpb meeting, the member judged that global inflation had been strengthened, and recovery in major economies had weakened, due to the war in ukraine and prolonged lockdowns in china.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
171
the main details of the mpb members’ discussions concerning a change in the bank of korea base rate were as follows: most members took the view that, in overall consideration of the domestic and international financial and economic environments, it would be desirable to raise the base rate to 1.25% from its current level of 1.00%, while one member argued that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate at the current level of 1.00%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
45
members also evaluated that the favorable conditions in international financial markets would continue for the time being, but fx and asset market volatility was likely to increase in line largely with changes in major countries’ monetary policies.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
699
the member also added that, on the fiscal side, the bank should actively set forth its views to ensure that the expansion of the fiscal burden would dynamically lead to a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution, while creating a favorable environment for fiscal expansion through low interest rates and purchases of treasury bonds.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
139
has continued but domestic demand activities such as consumption, and the sentiments of economic agents appear to be improving somewhat.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
216
english on the bank of korea’s website.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,013
366
in this regard, the member expressed concerns that the fall in service charges, which was closely related with the livelihood of economic agents, could act as a larger shock causing inflation expectations to decline.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
176
mr. woosik moon, however, dissented, expressing his clear opposition to lowering the base rate by 0.25 of a percentage point, and arguing for keeping it at the existing level.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,015
920
the member commented that, amid the ongoing slowdown in the global economy, exports had not been showing any sign of recovery, and it had become more difficult to expect a recovery in exports in the immediate future, due to recently growing uncertainties surrounding the us-china trade dispute.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
258
the member forecast that the global economy would maintain strong growth exceeding its potential this year and global trade would sustain strong growth for the time being, and assessed the weakening of real economic indicators in some advanced countries during the first quarter as having been attributable to one-off factors.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
49
however, further monitoring is required to determine whether such buoyancy of domestic demand, including private consumption, will continue.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
433
the member’s assessment was that the 1.25% nominal level of the base rate could not be assessed to be low under recent macroeconomic conditions with the inflation falling to a historically low level, and that the real interest rate with underlying price inflation excluded remained the highest among major advanced countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
930
taking into account factors such as the sustained high growth in household and corporate loans, the member found it desirable to maintain a tightening monetary policy stance going forward.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
946
he added that the channels for revival of the korean economic growth potential and for returning to the appropriate price level needed to be examined closely, while also strengthening the macroprudential supervisory framework through cooperation among the related authorities with regard to financial stability risks including the increase in household debt.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
344
the member commented that consumer price inflation had recently rebounded owing to rises in agricultural prices and global oil prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
936
one other member argued that, although the growth path was judged to have been adjusted slightly downward in comparison with the october the fourth quarter of 2015, and to downward adjustments to the rates of growth of the world economy and global trade, and the price path was judged to have been adjusted substantially downward, as a further decline in international oil prices of late had acted as a downward pressure, these downward adjustments to the paths of growth and prices were mainly attributable to unforeseen changes in external factors, and the base rate’s current level still seemed accommodative, even in light of the downwardly adjusted outlook.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
824
the committee forecasts that the global economy will sustain its modest recovery going forward, centering around advanced economies, but judges that the possibility exists of its being affected by the changes in global financial market conditions stemming from the shift in the us federal reserve’s monetary policy stance, by the weakening of economic growth in some emerging market countries and by geopolitical risks.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
741
the member noted that financial conditions did not appear to be greatly constrained given that m2 growth remained high at the 8% level.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
999
looking ahead the board forecasts that consumer price inflation will remain at a low level for the time being, and then gradually rise as the effects of the low oil prices diminish.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
855
furthermore, the member evaluated consumption as having shown gradual improvement if the effects of the slowdown in automobile sales resulting from the termination of individual consumption tax cuts in june were excluded.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
751
going forward, domestic economic growth is expected to remain weak, affected by the global economic slowdown and the increase in interest rates.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
124
the member, however, stated the need for paying further attention to downside risks to the macroeconomy overall.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
242
on the other hand, the member assessed that core inflation in the u.s. had not declined greatly from the level seen in the second half of last year, and that it was rising in the euro area.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
161
long-term market interest rates have fallen back after having previously risen, in reflection mainly of interest rate movements in major countries.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
42
another member pointed out that the uncertainties on the external front had increased with the recovery in the euro area being blown off course following the greek crisis and with the persistent sluggishness in china and other emerging market countries even as the timing of a us interest rate hike approached.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,015
621
looking at the financial situation, the member assessed that the current base rate was analyzed to be in restrictive territory, running well above the neutral rate range, while overall financial conditions had become much less tight compared with the previous year-end.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
524
second, the member’s assessment was that, while the growth gap was narrowing, macroeconomic policy would expand further overall this year given the government’s fiscal policy stance, even if the base rate remained at the current level.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
212
the member also expected that it would likely to take substantial time for the export-driven economic recovery to lead to stable expansion of household income, wages, employment and consumption.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
718
with regard to the domestic financial markets, meanwhile, members noted that stock prices had dropped significantly and the won-dollar rate had risen greatly, due to the outflows of foreigners’ portfolio investment funds following financial instability in china and falls in international oil prices, and long-term interest rates had decreased owing chiefly to the preference for safe haven assets due to heightened financial market volatility.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
262
the member’s assessment was that the recent decline in korea’s potential growth was attributable to sluggish global manufacturing production and the decline in global trade volume.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
91
regarding the current account, the member mentioned that the trade account deficit was worrisome, but considering its dependence on energy imports, korea’s current account to gdp ratio was more favorable than those of major countries and korea’s ratio of the current account to gdp excluding energy was even higher than those of major countries.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
813
taking into consideration these domestic and overseas economic conditions, the member saw a need to keep the base rate unchanged at the current level of 3.50% this time and to monitor progress in the real economy and inflation relative to the projected paths for some time, while checking that both consumer and core inflation declined sufficiently in-line with their forecast paths.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
401
finally, in terms of financial stability, the member assessed that growth in household lending and housing prices had slowed since the second half of last year, but continued caution about the risk of a buildup of financial imbalances was required.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
761
all mpb members supported the decision unanimously.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
579
the contrasting effects of external and internal demand are offsetting each other, leading to overall economic growth that does not significantly deviate from previous forecasts.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
991
the member’s assessment of the domestic economy since the end of last year was that demand in the private sector had stagnated and weak growth dependent on expansion in public sector expenditure was continuing.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
13
the member added that korea, with its three base rate hikes since august last year, is one of the major countries which started normalizing monetary policy preemptively.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
583
the member expected this sluggishness to ease into the second half of the year.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
458
toward the fourth quarter of this year, however, inflation was expected to decline slightly to around the target level, with the base-period effects from temporary supply shocks and regulations fading away.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
966
another member judged that it would be appropriate to make an upward adjustment of the base rate to 1.00% from the current 0.75%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
673
looking at the changes in domestic and external conditions since the previous mpb meeting, the member assessed the recovery of the global economy as strengthening gradually, boosted by expansion of vaccine distribution and reopening the economy as well as the economic stimulus in major countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
73
another member advocated the need for maintaining the base rate at its current level this month, while at the same time closely monitoring the effects of the economic policies put in place so far by the bank of korea and the korean government, the changes in sentiment of economic agents, the strength of the domestic demand recovery, household lending trends, and the possibility of a change in the us fed’s monetary policy stance.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
508
prices of agricultural, livestock and fisheries products and to the larger increase in petroleum product prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
592
the member also noted that, regarding employment conditions, there was an upward trend in the number of employed women and of those aged 60 and older, driven by the services sector.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
938
with regard to financial stability, the member took the view that the current slowing trend, albeit slight, of household debt growth would likely continue, as the effects of strengthened micro-level regulations had started to materialize and were combined with the effects of the reduction in the degree of monetary easing, but continued vigilance would be necessary as household debt growth had continued to outpace income growth and demand for household loans was likely to be substantial amid a rise in the number of move-in ready apartments.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,019
581
the member assessed that exports had been showing a faster-than-expected recovery, driven by growth in semiconductor exports and a slower decline in exports to china since september.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
528
looking ahead, it is forecast that consumer price inflation will continue to run in the 3% range for a considerable time, exceeding the path projected in november, and above the mid-2% level for the year overall.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
202
the member also forecast the output gap to remain positive, even if slightly, with exports continuing to grow, consumption maintaining the trend of improvement, facilities investment undergoing a modest adjustment from its high level, and construction investment continuing to go through a correction as expected.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
232
the member also assessed that returns from inefficient leveraged investment had not led to sustainable revenues, which had been gradually increasing deadweight loss in the korean economy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
777
the member thus emphasized the need to pay attention to this issue.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,020
138
the member noted that, under the current domestic and international economic conditions, maintaining the current accommodative stance was inevitable, and this stance would have to be sustained for some time.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
477
the member added that now is the time for us to keep the base rate unchanged at the current 3.50% and to monitor the effects of the high interest rate policy that we have kept so far.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
54
as the inflationary pressures on the demand side are forecast to not be high for the time being, while the domestic economy is expected to continue its solid growth, the board will maintain its accommodative policy stance while closely checking future economic growth and inflation trends.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
24
going forward, the member stated that it is necessary to closely monitor the inflation and growth trajectories in the conduct of monetary policy.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
427
the member noted that the decoupling between the real economy and asset prices was a global phenomenon stemming from the exogenous shock of covid-19 and from accommodative monetary policy, but the degree of decoupling was higher in korea, due mainly to a housing policy factor and the skewed recovery of the real economy.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
774
the member added that despite the decline in goods prices, supercore inflation and housing services inflation had remained elevated, pushing back the expected timing of the u.s. federal reserve’s pivot to beyond the mid-year.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
925
concerning future price conditions, he indicated that it was too soon to relax due to the numerous uncertainties, such as international oil prices and unstable agricultural product prices.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,012
107
the member noted that, on top of the preemptive base rate cut, if the government pushes ahead with its announced 10-trillion-won supplementary budget, korea is expected to cope effectively with the contractions in consumer and investor confidence stemming from corporate restructuring.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
297
one member opined that attention should be paid to the fact that adverse effects from the persistence of low interest rates for an extended period were already appearing, in the form of a deepening of economic imbalances—with real interest rates currently remaining negative and household and corporate lending growth accelerating—and that the base rate hikes should consequently be resumed, once the global financial market unrest had eased to some extent and positive signs of changes in economic activity had reemerged.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,011
143
the member stated that the gdp growth forecast for this year had been adjusted downward to 2.7% from 3.0% and consumer price inflation was expected to remain at around 5% for the next several months to run at approximately 4.5% for the year overall, well above the previous forecast of 3.1%.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
153
however, uncertainties over the pace of future growth increased with growing concerns about an economic recession in the u.s.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
759
one other member presented the view that it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level of 1.50 percent for the intermeeting period.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
640
the member saw that risk aversion in the financial markets had eased somewhat, thanks to recent active policy responses by individual countries, but the shock to the real economy was increasing further, due to the implementation of strong quarantine measures, such as lockdowns or business suspensions in major countries, including the us.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
818
in this process it will judge carefully whether it is necessary to adjust its accommodative monetary policy stance further, while closely checking future economic growth and inflation trends.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
20
most members evaluated the domestic economy as maintaining its solid underlying trend of growth along the originally-projected growth path.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,011
548
meanwhile, the member expressed the view that continued coordination with other policies would be needed to minimize potential policy costs incident to the base rate cut.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
284
with regard to the domestic financial markets, meanwhile, members noted that interest rates and stock prices had dropped significantly and the korean won had depreciated against the us dollar, with korea seeing outflows of foreigners’ securities investment funds brought about in part by developments in international financial markets.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
638
after briefings by staff on 'current economic developments in korea', of the monetary policy committee (mpc) members covered the following areas: concerning the global economy, members’ assessment was that the trend of economic recovery in the us had been sustained, and that the sluggishness of economic activities in the euro area appeared to be easing, with major sentiment indicators continually improving.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,013
394
core inflation (excluding changes in food and energy prices from the cpi) recorded a negative rate, and the inflation expectations of the general public have moved down slightly within the upper-1% range.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
425
members saw that, although household lending growth had been slowing, attention should be paid to the continued strong growth in sole proprietor loans.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
347
the member commented that, although exports had been continuing to show a solid recovery, factors such as the deterioration in trade conditions with china had been working to increase the negative impacts on both goods and services exports, thus requiring ongoing monitoring of trade with china on an item-by-item basis.
irrelevant
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
57
the member assessed that the decline in core inflation had been slower than expected due to the continued pass-through of accumulated cost pressures into prices and the sustained upward momentum of service prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
182
volatility in global financial markets has increased.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
974
the member also stressed the need for decisive and principled restructuring and for close cooperation with the relevant authorities concerning decisive household debt measures.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,016
757
the member then expressed the view that, although an overall consideration of these points could lead to the conclusion that there is a need for further base rate adjustments, it would be desirable to hold the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, while checking to see if the growth and inflation paths for the second quarter were consistent with the initial projections, and to strengthen the examination of changes in credit, exchange rate and other policy transmission channels and factors causing financial instability at home and abroad, thus maintaining a flexible policy stance.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
183
members evaluated that, in this regard, the us federal reserve and major central banks had strengthened their accommodative monetary policy stances.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
319
the member judged that overall financial conditions remained stable, with flows of corporate credit gradually recovering and with economic activity improving.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
835