gtfintechlab/bank_of_korea · Datasets at Hugging Face

sentences stringlengths 39 700	stance_label stringclasses 4 values	time_label stringclasses 2 values	certain_label stringclasses 2 values	year int64 2.01k 2.02k	__index_level_0__ int64 1 999
the member also pointed out that there was excessive liquidity in the financial markets, as seen in the real base rate falling short of the neutral interest rate and a surge in the money supply relative to its long-term trend.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	265
the member saw that market interest rates, as well as deposit and lending rates in the banking sector, had fallen to historic lows; growth in private-sector credit and market liquidity had sharply accelerated; and stock prices had recovered to the level seen before the covid-19 outbreak.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	374
one member however forecast that korea’s growth rate would not deviate greatly from its long-term trend level, unless a situation such as during the 2008 global financial crisis recurred.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	769
meanwhile, another member presented the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate unchanged from the current level.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,021	825
the member meanwhile presented the view that, although the chinese economy had been recovering rapidly since its reopening, led by domestic demand, the country’s imports and exports had continued to decline due to the sluggishness of the global it industry and a high level of inventory, which would likely limit the growth path of the global economy.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	715
lastly, emphasizing the need for an approach to the causes of the slow growth that accorded with a focus on the structural contraction of private consumption rather than attributing it solely to the sluggish global economy, another member suggested it was necessary to ascertain whether the critical point had now been reached beyond which the recovery of private consumption would be held back for a long time by the influence of household debt.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	834
one of these members assessed that, with downside risks to the global economy increasing, the domestic economy now faced heightened risks of slow growth and slow price rises owing to the contraction of domestic demand and exports.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,015	417
as positive points, the member mentioned the relative stability of international financial markets, thanks for instance to changes in the monetary policy stances of major advanced economies, and the increasing possibility of an agreement in the us-china trade dispute.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,019	730
the member went on to note that any delay in changing the base rate, on the other hand, would lead to accumulated economic and social losses stemming from increased idle resources.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,019	791
the korean won has weakened slightly, as the influences of the continued current account surplus and the outflows of foreigners’ securities investment funds have overlapped.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	881
the member noted that vigilance was needed most of all against the fact that covid-19, the main cause of the current global economic slump, was likely to abate later than originally forecast.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	752
the member stated that net household assets relative to gdp in korea were falling below the oecd average, and the pace of population aging was likely to be twice the oecd average in the future.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	667
the member also presented the view that maintaining the monetary tightening stance long enough would help facilitate the deleveraging of household debt that had increased excessively, and strengthen the long-term soundness of the korean economy.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	880
in other words, the real gdp growth rate was holding steady as net export growth stemming from lower import volume had offset a decline in the contribution of domestic demand to growth, resulting in the slowdown of gni and nominal income growth.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	187
accordingly, the member stated the view that it was desirable at this juncture to assess the direction of future interest rate policy based on a detailed analysis of the degree to which downside risks to growth and inflation would increase.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	535
the member also projected that consumption would sustain its underlying trend of improvement, since the effects of the spread of the virus variants were unlikely to last long considering the full-scale vaccinations of young and senior age groups and previous measures to combat covid-19, and the government was implementing policy measures to support income and boost consumption.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	195
the member assessed that, considering these points, the domestic economy did not appear to have emerged greatly from its overall sluggishness, despite its partial and moderate recovery.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	356
the member noted that financial stability indicators were positive, with government bond yields and lending rates falling and with money markets generally being assessed as stable.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	27
the member judged that the economy would be able to withstand the growth loss stemming from rate hikes in light of the prospect that domestic demand would maintain relatively solid growth next year as well as this year.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	555
the member, however, stressed the need to recognize that it takes quite a long time for an economy to recover in the event of an unusually large economic shock.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,022	995
the member assessed that, since the record high interest rate differential between korea and the u.s. could destabilize exchange rates and expand volatility in the foreign exchange market, it would be important to keep a close eye on foreign exchange movements and prevent any rise in foreign exchange volatility.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	99
another member presented the view that it would be appropriate to hold the base rate steady at the current level of 3.50% for the inermeeting period.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,024	882
the member, however, expressed concern that korea’s economic growth in the upper-2 percent range, while consistent with the potential growth rate, was led by construction investment, and housing construction in particular, which was expanding at an unsustainable rate.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	504
the member assessed that the output gap seemed to have turned slightly positive but, considering that inflationary pressures were not yet large, it would be necessary to keep the current monetary easing stance for the time being, and went on to state that now seemed the time to closely monitor the real economic trend since the previous base rate hike and to analyze whether the current economic recovery would be sustainable in the medium and long term.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,018	810
the member also noted that there were signs of possible adjustments in household debt and the real estate market, influenced for instance by strong macroprudential policy.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,019	452
concerning corporate credit, meanwhile, the downturn phase of the corporate credit cycle had continued owing to the sharp decreases at both large corporations and smes and to sustained net corporate bond redemptions.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	602
the member pointed out that these growth imbalances were highly likely to continue even after the covid-19 pandemic ends.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,021	631
in terms of inflation, meanwhile, the member noted that consumer price inflation had slowed to the mid-1-percent range in the fourth quarter last year, due mainly to slowed growth in agricultural and livestock product prices and a fall in city gas bills, and added that, despite real economic growth, the wage growth rate and other labor market indicators had not yet exhibited signs of inflation pressures building up in line with improvement in the output gap.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	410
members, however, pointed out that a closer look at the details of employment showed that the degree of improvement in overall employment conditions remained insufficient.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	321
the member emphasized that particular attention should be paid to the sudden concentration in the asset markets of liquidity that had increased as a result of the aggressive monetary policy in response to the covid-19 shock.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,021	28
the member projected that the domestic economy would likely continue to show gradual improvement, led by exports.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,024	951
- consumer price inflation has remained high in the mid- to upper-3% range due to the ongoing sharp rise in the prices of petroleum products, as well as the accelerating increase in the prices of personal services and industrial products.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	630
the member also explained that investment related to real estate, construction and it, which had once led economic growth, had continued to undergo corrections, which had seemingly contributed to a fall in the domestic economic growth rate to a level near the downwardly adjusted potential growth rate.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	898
the 1st vice minister commented that the domestic economy was likely to maintain its robust movements for the time being, against a background of sustained buoyancy of domestic demand and exports and increased private sector employment.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	456
some members stressed that it would be necessary to remain on the alert against the possibility of uncertainties such as geopolitical risks and prolonged global supply constraints having a negative impact on the future domestic economic recovery.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	447
the member noted that the trend of world economic recovery had been spreading since the second half of last year, and the gradual monetary policy normalization in the us was proceeding smoothly.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	499
meanwhile, some members expressed the view that, although inflation had recently slowed somewhat and some inflation indicators, such as weighted median core inflation and short-term inflation expectations, had been improving, there still were high uncertainties including possible economic slowdowns at home and abroad and a buildup of upward pressures on public utility fees.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	436
the member, however, commented that economic agents seemed to have responded somewhat excessively given the coexistence of upside risks, such as fiscal expansion to support job creation and income, government policy measures including a cut in the individual consumption tax, and major large corporations’ plans to expand their investment.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	772
core inflation (with food and energy product prices excluded from the cpi) has fallen to the 1% level, and the rate of inflation expected by the general public has been in the mid- to upper-2% range.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	644
the member, however, commented that the causes of low inflation had not yet been resolved.	irrelevant	not forward looking	uncertain	2,017	213
with regard to the domestic financial markets, meanwhile, members evaluated that the volatility of major price variables, including interest rates, stock prices and exchange rates, had increased, as also seen in the international financial markets, and that long-term market interest rates had risen substantially, affected chiefly by expectations of a us policy rate hike and rises in major country treasury bond yields, while stock prices had fallen due to the increased uncertainties at home and abroad.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,016	220
the member noted that uncertainties surrounding the future growth path had heightened further, as there were factors making for political and economic instability at home and abroad, and as the economy was expected to slow down in the fourth quarter, influenced for instance by discontinued production of some items, corporate restructuring and the anti-graft law.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	11
members also judged that, in the international markets, the us dollar had strengthened, interest rates had generally declined, and stock prices had risen centering around advanced countries.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,014	806
the member thus expressed the need to carefully monitor the situation in vulnerable sectors.	irrelevant	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	249
concerning future inflation, the member forecast that upside risks would somewhat predominate in the short term, but with the effects of supply-side factors gradually diminishing, inflation would not deviate far from the january forecast path in the medium term.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,017	482
one member noted that, as the downside risks to the growth path were becoming ever more prominent at this time, financial and economic developments at home and abroad must be scrutinized while proceeding with policy adjustment at a measured pace.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,011	389
the member noted that the output gap was close to zero and consumer price inflation was nearing 2 percent, which suggested a heightened need for narrowing the degree of monetary easing.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	746
in other words, the member was of the view that low demand-side inflationary pressures stemming from the continuation of the negative output gap had been leading to the widening of the negative inflation gap.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,020	121
on the domestic economy, the member saw that exports, led by semiconductors, had recovered strongly and were driving growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	952
the member noted, however, that entering this year, the expectations for policy rate cuts had somewhat weakened in major countries, partially reversing developments in those indicators.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,024	231
the member thus noted that, at this juncture, it was necessary to reduce the degree of monetary policy accommodation, while giving more attention to financial stability in monetary policy operations.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	129
finally, the member pointed out that financial imbalances were continuing to accumulate amid the accommodative financial conditions.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	36
the member, however, emphasized that housing supply policies, tax policies and macroprudential policies should be carried out as planned in order to stabilize the housing market.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,020	76
in addition, the member commented that the restructuring of troubled companies, which had become an issue of late, and difficulties in monetary policy in the course of such restructuring exemplified the importance of curbing moral hazard by taking preemptive policy measures to strengthen financial soundness.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,016	41
the 1st vice minister remarked, however, that the current account had posted a surplus of 4.2 billion dollars in october, wider than that of the previous month, and that it was estimated to have recorded a substantial surplus in november as well.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,011	479
the member went on to express the view that it would be desirable to maintain the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, in consideration of the trend of foreign securities investment fund outflows and an increase in household debt.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	387
looking at price conditions, the member mentioned that, since the flattening of the phillips curve, which implied a weaker linkage between growth and prices, had been witnessed across the world of late, korea also was unlikely to see a large increase in underlying demand-side inflationary pressures.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,017	96
the member projected that domestic inflation would continue its gradual deceleration.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	463
the member expected that the effects of the widening of interest rate differentials caused by further tightening in major economies on the korean won to us dollar exchange rate would be limited.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,023	360
concerning the global economy, the member noted that the possibility of a soft landing for the u.s. economy was rising, supported by brisk consumption and production based on solid employment.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,023	609
the member expected that the economic spillover effects of covid-19, which had been spreading rapidly since the february mpb meeting, would be greater and last longer than previously forecast.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,020	618
the member expected that, although private consumption had been recovering slowly, it would likely maintain a modest upward trajectory going forward, depending on future improvements in real household incomes.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,024	871
the members stressed that, despite a slowdown in household debt growth, it would be necessary to constantly examine growth in loans such as leasehold deposit loans and loans to sole proprietors.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,018	971
meanwhile, the member commented that china was at a stage of possible deflation, as inflation fell amid the slowing economy.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,023	82
based on all of this, the member argued that the growth and price paths did not have solid footing and their uncertainties were extremely high, but considering that this had already been expected during the last month’s rate cut, it would be advisable to hold the base rate at its current level of 1.25 percent for the intermeeting period.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,016	3
mortgage lending posted a steady rise in july, as in the previous month.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	552
the member thus judged them to be positive changes.	irrelevant	not forward looking	certain	2,019	355
the member pointed out that, first, lending to households by non-bank financial institutions had been rising sharply, led by mutual credit firms, and second, optimism that the housing market would stabilize could be premature, since slower construction investment had not materialized, contrary to expectations.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,017	19
the member also mentioned that, according to the household income and expenditure survey by statistics korea, the monthly average household income for the third quarter grew by 8.0% year on year and earned income by 6.2%, and income showed even growth across all decile groups, indicating that the economic recovery was leading to household income growth.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,021	551
the korean won-us dollar exchange rate has continued its uptrend seen since october of last year, in line with the strengthening of the us dollar globally.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	557
the member evaluated that, since a rise in production activities driven by exports and the manufacturing industry was seen to have led to a recovery in employment and household income and the uptrend in prices had been spreading due to the pressures on inflation from the consumption demand side following the lifting of social distancing restrictions, there was good reason for maintaining the rate hike stance.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	468
the member also expressed the opinion that the base rate should be held at its current level for the intermeeting period, and efforts should be made to return the korean economy onto a stable path of growth as early as possible, by considering in a balanced manner the macro-economic risks to growth and prices together with risks to financial stability, while at the same time taking note of any changes in global financial and economic conditions.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	474
the member’s assessment was that, although korea’s economic growth had been driven by facilities investment related to it sector exports and by construction investment associated with household debt, the economic recovery had so far not been transmitted fully to household income.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	343
members, however, added that there was a need to pay attention to changes in export and employment conditions in line for instance with stronger protectionism by the us and a foreign automaker’s decision to shut down a factory in korea, while bearing in mind that employment was growing, led by export manufacturing industries, and employment growth was slowing in the service industries closely associated with domestic demand.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,018	228
looking ahead the board expects that consumer price inflation will for the time being fluctuate at the 2% level, and for the year as a whole slightly exceed the january projection (1.8%).	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,017	332
meanwhile, some members emphasized that, although prices were relatively stable, the real estate market was in a recession and the uncertainties surrounding domestic and overseas financial markets were increasing.	neutral	not forward looking	uncertain	2,010	2
as inflation slows in accordance with the forecast path, there are growing expectations that inflation will converge on its target level in the second half of next year.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,024	166
the member assessed that the employment situation was favorable overall, with the number of persons employed continuing to rise and the unemployment rate remaining low.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	641
however, the improvements in the euro area have weakened.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,016	484
the member stated that, at a time when u.s. dollar supply and demand conditions had been worsening for some time, it would be important to closely monitor global risk factors and changes in indicators of external soundness in order to maintain korea’s international credit standing.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	651
increases in prices of industrial products, and core inflation rose compared to the previous month as well.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,011	782
one other member argued that downside risks to the future growth and price paths were high, taking into account that although economic activity was expected to follow the path forecast in july, downside risks to the growth path for the second half had increased due to a prolonged slump in exports and the manufacturing industry, and considering that although consumer price inflation was judged to be falling somewhat short of the path forecast in july due mainly to the decline in international oil prices, core inflation was holding to the original forecast path, and keeping in mind that the slack in the production sector and the overall spare capacity in the labor market had expanded somewhat.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,015	854
next, the member emphasized the need to keep an eye on the negative effects of strong growth in private-sector credit amid the accommodative financial conditions.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	902
the member, meanwhile, presented the opinion that there had been ongoing concerns about a possible domestic economic downturn, as a global economic slowdown had been underway, led by industries upon which korean exports heavily rely on.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,019	1
the korean won to us dollar exchange rate has risen significantly, reflecting the global strengthening of the us dollar.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	923
the committee does however recognize the presence of potentially destabilizing factors, such as pressures to hike public utility fees and the ongoing high inflation expectations.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,012	958
the member thus assessed that the possibility could not be ruled out that consumer price inflation would exceed the target for a longer period of time than the research department’s current projection.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,021	809
household loans have decreased slightly and housing prices have further decreased.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,022	180
the member commented that consumer price inflation had risen above the 2% inflation target, influenced by accelerating upward trends of oil prices and agricultural, livestock and fisheries product prices.	hawkish	not forward looking	certain	2,017	874
accordingly, the member expressed the view that it would be appropriate to leave the base rate unchanged at the current 3.50% at this meeting.	neutral	not forward looking	certain	2,023	346
one member was of the opinion that the bank of korea should on the one hand work to constantly refine its monetary policy instruments, by examining the side-effects arising from the prolongation of low interest rates, the controversies related to the stimulative effect of base rate adjustment and the effectiveness of the recently reorganized aggregate credit ceiling loan, while on the other hand also strengthen its efforts, as the central bank, to put forward policy alternatives for the sound development of the korean economy in view of the heightened concerns over entrenchment of a trend of low growth caused by the recent delay in economic recovery.	hawkish	forward looking	uncertain	2,013	856
one member pointed out the possibility of a future slowdown of economic growth in emerging economies influenced by the delayed recoveries in advanced economies and persistence of international financial market unrest.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,011	765
the member noted that the domestic financial market was maintaining a relatively stable situation with volatility in price variables declining and credit spreads falling slightly.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,023	975
the member saw that the real economy could not deviate greatly from the potential gdp path, although consideration should also be given to the quality of employment, demographic changes, and the possibility of structural change during the covid-19 pandemic.	neutral	forward looking	uncertain	2,022	643
the member judged that the economic growth rate for this year seemed to have declined somewhat rapidly due to the base effect from excessive construction investment over the past few years and the readjustment of it-related facilities investment that had shown fast growth last year, but recorded growth was within the margin of error of the forecast path and at the level of the potential growth rate, which itself had remained on a downward path.	dovish	not forward looking	certain	2,018	800
the member stated that it would be desirable to adjust the pace of tightening, while looking at the future domestic price and growth paths, capital flow trends, global financial market conditions, and changes in monetary policy in major countries.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,022	188
another member stated his opinion that a small downward adjustment of the base rate from its current level of 1.75% would be advisable since, with the exception of the trend of changes in household lending other recent policy conditions were all indicating a need for further monetary policy easing.	dovish	forward looking	certain	2,015	671
the member stated that with the time lag of monetary policy being long and variable, the effects of monetary policy could sometimes last until when it was no longer necessary.	dovish	forward looking	uncertain	2,023	471
the member went on to present the opinion that the foreign exchange policy authorities should therefore scrupulously and preemptively examine potential risk factors, while developing appropriate measures to bring about market stability under different possible scenarios.	neutral	forward looking	certain	2,015	533
with regard to inflation, the member’s assessment was, although that the research department had raised its inflation forecast for this year significantly to 3.1% and also adjusted its core inflation forecast upward to 2.6%, upside risks were even greater considering the recent global oil price trend and inflation pressures.	hawkish	forward looking	certain	2,022	113

the member also pointed out that there was excessive liquidity in the financial markets, as seen in the real base rate falling short of the neutral interest rate and a surge in the money supply relative to its long-term trend.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

265

the member saw that market interest rates, as well as deposit and lending rates in the banking sector, had fallen to historic lows; growth in private-sector credit and market liquidity had sharply accelerated; and stock prices had recovered to the level seen before the covid-19 outbreak.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

374

one member however forecast that korea’s growth rate would not deviate greatly from its long-term trend level, unless a situation such as during the 2008 global financial crisis recurred.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

769

meanwhile, another member presented the view that it would be appropriate to keep the base rate unchanged from the current level.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,021

825

the member meanwhile presented the view that, although the chinese economy had been recovering rapidly since its reopening, led by domestic demand, the country’s imports and exports had continued to decline due to the sluggishness of the global it industry and a high level of inventory, which would likely limit the growth path of the global economy.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

715

lastly, emphasizing the need for an approach to the causes of the slow growth that accorded with a focus on the structural contraction of private consumption rather than attributing it solely to the sluggish global economy, another member suggested it was necessary to ascertain whether the critical point had now been reached beyond which the recovery of private consumption would be held back for a long time by the influence of household debt.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

834

one of these members assessed that, with downside risks to the global economy increasing, the domestic economy now faced heightened risks of slow growth and slow price rises owing to the contraction of domestic demand and exports.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,015

417

as positive points, the member mentioned the relative stability of international financial markets, thanks for instance to changes in the monetary policy stances of major advanced economies, and the increasing possibility of an agreement in the us-china trade dispute.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,019

730

the member went on to note that any delay in changing the base rate, on the other hand, would lead to accumulated economic and social losses stemming from increased idle resources.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,019

791

the korean won has weakened slightly, as the influences of the continued current account surplus and the outflows of foreigners’ securities investment funds have overlapped.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

881

the member noted that vigilance was needed most of all against the fact that covid-19, the main cause of the current global economic slump, was likely to abate later than originally forecast.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

752

the member stated that net household assets relative to gdp in korea were falling below the oecd average, and the pace of population aging was likely to be twice the oecd average in the future.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

667

the member also presented the view that maintaining the monetary tightening stance long enough would help facilitate the deleveraging of household debt that had increased excessively, and strengthen the long-term soundness of the korean economy.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

880

in other words, the real gdp growth rate was holding steady as net export growth stemming from lower import volume had offset a decline in the contribution of domestic demand to growth, resulting in the slowdown of gni and nominal income growth.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

187

accordingly, the member stated the view that it was desirable at this juncture to assess the direction of future interest rate policy based on a detailed analysis of the degree to which downside risks to growth and inflation would increase.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

535

the member also projected that consumption would sustain its underlying trend of improvement, since the effects of the spread of the virus variants were unlikely to last long considering the full-scale vaccinations of young and senior age groups and previous measures to combat covid-19, and the government was implementing policy measures to support income and boost consumption.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

195

the member assessed that, considering these points, the domestic economy did not appear to have emerged greatly from its overall sluggishness, despite its partial and moderate recovery.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

356

the member noted that financial stability indicators were positive, with government bond yields and lending rates falling and with money markets generally being assessed as stable.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

27

the member judged that the economy would be able to withstand the growth loss stemming from rate hikes in light of the prospect that domestic demand would maintain relatively solid growth next year as well as this year.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

555

the member, however, stressed the need to recognize that it takes quite a long time for an economy to recover in the event of an unusually large economic shock.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,022

995

the member assessed that, since the record high interest rate differential between korea and the u.s. could destabilize exchange rates and expand volatility in the foreign exchange market, it would be important to keep a close eye on foreign exchange movements and prevent any rise in foreign exchange volatility.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

99

another member presented the view that it would be appropriate to hold the base rate steady at the current level of 3.50% for the inermeeting period.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,024

882

the member, however, expressed concern that korea’s economic growth in the upper-2 percent range, while consistent with the potential growth rate, was led by construction investment, and housing construction in particular, which was expanding at an unsustainable rate.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

504

the member assessed that the output gap seemed to have turned slightly positive but, considering that inflationary pressures were not yet large, it would be necessary to keep the current monetary easing stance for the time being, and went on to state that now seemed the time to closely monitor the real economic trend since the previous base rate hike and to analyze whether the current economic recovery would be sustainable in the medium and long term.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,018

810

the member also noted that there were signs of possible adjustments in household debt and the real estate market, influenced for instance by strong macroprudential policy.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,019

452

concerning corporate credit, meanwhile, the downturn phase of the corporate credit cycle had continued owing to the sharp decreases at both large corporations and smes and to sustained net corporate bond redemptions.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

602

the member pointed out that these growth imbalances were highly likely to continue even after the covid-19 pandemic ends.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,021

631

in terms of inflation, meanwhile, the member noted that consumer price inflation had slowed to the mid-1-percent range in the fourth quarter last year, due mainly to slowed growth in agricultural and livestock product prices and a fall in city gas bills, and added that, despite real economic growth, the wage growth rate and other labor market indicators had not yet exhibited signs of inflation pressures building up in line with improvement in the output gap.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

410

members, however, pointed out that a closer look at the details of employment showed that the degree of improvement in overall employment conditions remained insufficient.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

321

the member emphasized that particular attention should be paid to the sudden concentration in the asset markets of liquidity that had increased as a result of the aggressive monetary policy in response to the covid-19 shock.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,021

28

the member projected that the domestic economy would likely continue to show gradual improvement, led by exports.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,024

951

- consumer price inflation has remained high in the mid- to upper-3% range due to the ongoing sharp rise in the prices of petroleum products, as well as the accelerating increase in the prices of personal services and industrial products.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

630

the member also explained that investment related to real estate, construction and it, which had once led economic growth, had continued to undergo corrections, which had seemingly contributed to a fall in the domestic economic growth rate to a level near the downwardly adjusted potential growth rate.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

898

the 1st vice minister commented that the domestic economy was likely to maintain its robust movements for the time being, against a background of sustained buoyancy of domestic demand and exports and increased private sector employment.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

456

some members stressed that it would be necessary to remain on the alert against the possibility of uncertainties such as geopolitical risks and prolonged global supply constraints having a negative impact on the future domestic economic recovery.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

447

the member noted that the trend of world economic recovery had been spreading since the second half of last year, and the gradual monetary policy normalization in the us was proceeding smoothly.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

499

meanwhile, some members expressed the view that, although inflation had recently slowed somewhat and some inflation indicators, such as weighted median core inflation and short-term inflation expectations, had been improving, there still were high uncertainties including possible economic slowdowns at home and abroad and a buildup of upward pressures on public utility fees.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

436

the member, however, commented that economic agents seemed to have responded somewhat excessively given the coexistence of upside risks, such as fiscal expansion to support job creation and income, government policy measures including a cut in the individual consumption tax, and major large corporations’ plans to expand their investment.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

772

core inflation (with food and energy product prices excluded from the cpi) has fallen to the 1% level, and the rate of inflation expected by the general public has been in the mid- to upper-2% range.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

644

the member, however, commented that the causes of low inflation had not yet been resolved.

irrelevant

not forward looking

uncertain

2,017

213

with regard to the domestic financial markets, meanwhile, members evaluated that the volatility of major price variables, including interest rates, stock prices and exchange rates, had increased, as also seen in the international financial markets, and that long-term market interest rates had risen substantially, affected chiefly by expectations of a us policy rate hike and rises in major country treasury bond yields, while stock prices had fallen due to the increased uncertainties at home and abroad.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,016

220

the member noted that uncertainties surrounding the future growth path had heightened further, as there were factors making for political and economic instability at home and abroad, and as the economy was expected to slow down in the fourth quarter, influenced for instance by discontinued production of some items, corporate restructuring and the anti-graft law.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

11

members also judged that, in the international markets, the us dollar had strengthened, interest rates had generally declined, and stock prices had risen centering around advanced countries.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,014

806

the member thus expressed the need to carefully monitor the situation in vulnerable sectors.

irrelevant

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

249

concerning future inflation, the member forecast that upside risks would somewhat predominate in the short term, but with the effects of supply-side factors gradually diminishing, inflation would not deviate far from the january forecast path in the medium term.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,017

482

one member noted that, as the downside risks to the growth path were becoming ever more prominent at this time, financial and economic developments at home and abroad must be scrutinized while proceeding with policy adjustment at a measured pace.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,011

389

the member noted that the output gap was close to zero and consumer price inflation was nearing 2 percent, which suggested a heightened need for narrowing the degree of monetary easing.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

746

in other words, the member was of the view that low demand-side inflationary pressures stemming from the continuation of the negative output gap had been leading to the widening of the negative inflation gap.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,020

121

on the domestic economy, the member saw that exports, led by semiconductors, had recovered strongly and were driving growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

952

the member noted, however, that entering this year, the expectations for policy rate cuts had somewhat weakened in major countries, partially reversing developments in those indicators.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,024

231

the member thus noted that, at this juncture, it was necessary to reduce the degree of monetary policy accommodation, while giving more attention to financial stability in monetary policy operations.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

129

finally, the member pointed out that financial imbalances were continuing to accumulate amid the accommodative financial conditions.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

36

the member, however, emphasized that housing supply policies, tax policies and macroprudential policies should be carried out as planned in order to stabilize the housing market.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,020

76

in addition, the member commented that the restructuring of troubled companies, which had become an issue of late, and difficulties in monetary policy in the course of such restructuring exemplified the importance of curbing moral hazard by taking preemptive policy measures to strengthen financial soundness.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,016

41

the 1st vice minister remarked, however, that the current account had posted a surplus of 4.2 billion dollars in october, wider than that of the previous month, and that it was estimated to have recorded a substantial surplus in november as well.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,011

479

the member went on to express the view that it would be desirable to maintain the base rate at its current level for the intermeeting period, in consideration of the trend of foreign securities investment fund outflows and an increase in household debt.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

387

looking at price conditions, the member mentioned that, since the flattening of the phillips curve, which implied a weaker linkage between growth and prices, had been witnessed across the world of late, korea also was unlikely to see a large increase in underlying demand-side inflationary pressures.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,017

96

the member projected that domestic inflation would continue its gradual deceleration.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

463

the member expected that the effects of the widening of interest rate differentials caused by further tightening in major economies on the korean won to us dollar exchange rate would be limited.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,023

360

concerning the global economy, the member noted that the possibility of a soft landing for the u.s. economy was rising, supported by brisk consumption and production based on solid employment.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,023

609

the member expected that the economic spillover effects of covid-19, which had been spreading rapidly since the february mpb meeting, would be greater and last longer than previously forecast.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,020

618

the member expected that, although private consumption had been recovering slowly, it would likely maintain a modest upward trajectory going forward, depending on future improvements in real household incomes.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,024

871

the members stressed that, despite a slowdown in household debt growth, it would be necessary to constantly examine growth in loans such as leasehold deposit loans and loans to sole proprietors.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,018

971

meanwhile, the member commented that china was at a stage of possible deflation, as inflation fell amid the slowing economy.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,023

82

based on all of this, the member argued that the growth and price paths did not have solid footing and their uncertainties were extremely high, but considering that this had already been expected during the last month’s rate cut, it would be advisable to hold the base rate at its current level of 1.25 percent for the intermeeting period.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,016

3

mortgage lending posted a steady rise in july, as in the previous month.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

552

the member thus judged them to be positive changes.

irrelevant

not forward looking

certain

2,019

355

the member pointed out that, first, lending to households by non-bank financial institutions had been rising sharply, led by mutual credit firms, and second, optimism that the housing market would stabilize could be premature, since slower construction investment had not materialized, contrary to expectations.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,017

19

the member also mentioned that, according to the household income and expenditure survey by statistics korea, the monthly average household income for the third quarter grew by 8.0% year on year and earned income by 6.2%, and income showed even growth across all decile groups, indicating that the economic recovery was leading to household income growth.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,021

551

the korean won-us dollar exchange rate has continued its uptrend seen since october of last year, in line with the strengthening of the us dollar globally.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

557

the member evaluated that, since a rise in production activities driven by exports and the manufacturing industry was seen to have led to a recovery in employment and household income and the uptrend in prices had been spreading due to the pressures on inflation from the consumption demand side following the lifting of social distancing restrictions, there was good reason for maintaining the rate hike stance.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

468

the member also expressed the opinion that the base rate should be held at its current level for the intermeeting period, and efforts should be made to return the korean economy onto a stable path of growth as early as possible, by considering in a balanced manner the macro-economic risks to growth and prices together with risks to financial stability, while at the same time taking note of any changes in global financial and economic conditions.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

474

the member’s assessment was that, although korea’s economic growth had been driven by facilities investment related to it sector exports and by construction investment associated with household debt, the economic recovery had so far not been transmitted fully to household income.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

343

members, however, added that there was a need to pay attention to changes in export and employment conditions in line for instance with stronger protectionism by the us and a foreign automaker’s decision to shut down a factory in korea, while bearing in mind that employment was growing, led by export manufacturing industries, and employment growth was slowing in the service industries closely associated with domestic demand.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,018

228

looking ahead the board expects that consumer price inflation will for the time being fluctuate at the 2% level, and for the year as a whole slightly exceed the january projection (1.8%).

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,017

332

meanwhile, some members emphasized that, although prices were relatively stable, the real estate market was in a recession and the uncertainties surrounding domestic and overseas financial markets were increasing.

neutral

not forward looking

uncertain

2,010

2

as inflation slows in accordance with the forecast path, there are growing expectations that inflation will converge on its target level in the second half of next year.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,024

166

the member assessed that the employment situation was favorable overall, with the number of persons employed continuing to rise and the unemployment rate remaining low.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

641

however, the improvements in the euro area have weakened.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,016

484

the member stated that, at a time when u.s. dollar supply and demand conditions had been worsening for some time, it would be important to closely monitor global risk factors and changes in indicators of external soundness in order to maintain korea’s international credit standing.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

651

increases in prices of industrial products, and core inflation rose compared to the previous month as well.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,011

782

one other member argued that downside risks to the future growth and price paths were high, taking into account that although economic activity was expected to follow the path forecast in july, downside risks to the growth path for the second half had increased due to a prolonged slump in exports and the manufacturing industry, and considering that although consumer price inflation was judged to be falling somewhat short of the path forecast in july due mainly to the decline in international oil prices, core inflation was holding to the original forecast path, and keeping in mind that the slack in the production sector and the overall spare capacity in the labor market had expanded somewhat.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,015

854

next, the member emphasized the need to keep an eye on the negative effects of strong growth in private-sector credit amid the accommodative financial conditions.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

902

the member, meanwhile, presented the opinion that there had been ongoing concerns about a possible domestic economic downturn, as a global economic slowdown had been underway, led by industries upon which korean exports heavily rely on.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,019

1

the korean won to us dollar exchange rate has risen significantly, reflecting the global strengthening of the us dollar.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

923

the committee does however recognize the presence of potentially destabilizing factors, such as pressures to hike public utility fees and the ongoing high inflation expectations.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,012

958

the member thus assessed that the possibility could not be ruled out that consumer price inflation would exceed the target for a longer period of time than the research department’s current projection.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,021

809

household loans have decreased slightly and housing prices have further decreased.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,022

180

the member commented that consumer price inflation had risen above the 2% inflation target, influenced by accelerating upward trends of oil prices and agricultural, livestock and fisheries product prices.

hawkish

not forward looking

certain

2,017

874

accordingly, the member expressed the view that it would be appropriate to leave the base rate unchanged at the current 3.50% at this meeting.

neutral

not forward looking

certain

2,023

346

one member was of the opinion that the bank of korea should on the one hand work to constantly refine its monetary policy instruments, by examining the side-effects arising from the prolongation of low interest rates, the controversies related to the stimulative effect of base rate adjustment and the effectiveness of the recently reorganized aggregate credit ceiling loan, while on the other hand also strengthen its efforts, as the central bank, to put forward policy alternatives for the sound development of the korean economy in view of the heightened concerns over entrenchment of a trend of low growth caused by the recent delay in economic recovery.

hawkish

forward looking

uncertain

2,013

856

one member pointed out the possibility of a future slowdown of economic growth in emerging economies influenced by the delayed recoveries in advanced economies and persistence of international financial market unrest.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,011

765

the member noted that the domestic financial market was maintaining a relatively stable situation with volatility in price variables declining and credit spreads falling slightly.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,023

975

the member saw that the real economy could not deviate greatly from the potential gdp path, although consideration should also be given to the quality of employment, demographic changes, and the possibility of structural change during the covid-19 pandemic.

neutral

forward looking

uncertain

2,022

643

the member judged that the economic growth rate for this year seemed to have declined somewhat rapidly due to the base effect from excessive construction investment over the past few years and the readjustment of it-related facilities investment that had shown fast growth last year, but recorded growth was within the margin of error of the forecast path and at the level of the potential growth rate, which itself had remained on a downward path.

dovish

not forward looking

certain

2,018

800

the member stated that it would be desirable to adjust the pace of tightening, while looking at the future domestic price and growth paths, capital flow trends, global financial market conditions, and changes in monetary policy in major countries.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,022

188

another member stated his opinion that a small downward adjustment of the base rate from its current level of 1.75% would be advisable since, with the exception of the trend of changes in household lending other recent policy conditions were all indicating a need for further monetary policy easing.

dovish

forward looking

certain

2,015

671

the member stated that with the time lag of monetary policy being long and variable, the effects of monetary policy could sometimes last until when it was no longer necessary.

dovish

forward looking

uncertain

2,023

471

the member went on to present the opinion that the foreign exchange policy authorities should therefore scrupulously and preemptively examine potential risk factors, while developing appropriate measures to bring about market stability under different possible scenarios.

neutral

forward looking

certain

2,015

533

with regard to inflation, the member’s assessment was, although that the research department had raised its inflation forecast for this year significantly to 3.1% and also adjusted its core inflation forecast upward to 2.6%, upside risks were even greater considering the recent global oil price trend and inflation pressures.

hawkish

forward looking

certain

2,022

113