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in addition, the june mp report would contain an update of the structural parameters of trend growth and the neutral interest rate, which would allow for a reassessment of the activity gap and the degree of expansiveness of monetary policy. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 265 |
furthermore, the 50bp-cut option had the great advantage that it was widely expected, so it would cause no significant changes in market prices. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 374 |
qualitatively, business expectations (imce)—excluding mining—had become more pessimistic. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 769 |
on the one hand, the effects of the social crisis that had burst out in october were still unfolding, and although the imacec in december and january had been above expectations, other real and financial variables showed a deterioration in recent months. | neutral | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 825 |
finally, political/legislative uncertainty had intensified, as had concerns about the possible resurgence of violence, especially affecting investment decisions. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 715 |
the u.s. federal reserve had begun to signal the need to accelerate this process, given the greater persistence of inflation, while the bank of england had surprised with a rate hike. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 834 |
in the local financial system, the high volatility of the trajectory of the chilean peso stood out, ranging between clp 655 and 700 per dollar, to settle at clp 670 at the time of the meeting, fairly unchanged from the previous instance. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 417 |
if the increase in direct fiscal transfers was added to this, a scenario was configured in which the expansion of consumption was considerably greater than had been foreseen in the june mp report. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 730 |
for this reason, the operation of the covid lines would compensate with guarantees part of the risk, helping the credit to flow to the smaller firms. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 791 |
all the board members agreed that the macroeconomic scenario could require further monetary stimulus. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 881 |
qualitative sources, such as the bls and the business perceptions report, reported still high interest rates despite a recent decrease in some portfolios-, higher collateral requirements and contained demand. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 752 |
this was partly explained by the difficulties in opec+ to reach an agreement on the increase in production quotas. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 667 |
it was also noted that the external risks had implications for inflation and monetary policy in chile that could differ in both the short and the long term. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 880 |
both the fbs and the ees estimated that the mpr would not be raised any sooner than may 2021, while asset prices saw it rising by december that year. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 187 |
it was noted that the evolution of the labor market confirmed the signs of an adjustment consistent with the economy’s performance and the usual lags between the two. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 535 |
therefore, it was still premature to think that the inflationary problem had been solved, so the bank should remain watchful for developments in the macroeconomic scenario. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 195 |
these included opening a funding facility for the banks conditional on their increase in loans (fcic), valid for six months, to grant credits charged to it over a term of up to four years with an initial loan amount equivalent to 3% of their commercial and consumer portfolios as reported by the financial market commission (cmf) for 29 february 2020 (benchmark portfolio). | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 356 |
however, in early march, turbulence in the u.s. and european banking systems abruptly changed the picture, introducing additional concerns. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 27 |
compared with september, beyond some ups and downs, the exchange rate had decreased and the stock market indices had risen. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 555 |
on this, it was noted that, beyond the reservations that part of the market or analysts might have about the decision to normalize the mpr, the available data, plus the analysis and the published statement, led to the conclusion that starting normalizing the monetary policy was absolutely consistent with the current macroeconomic scenario and inflation perspectives. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 995 |
all five board members agreed that the underlying factors that generated uncertainty and influenced the evolution of economic activity and inflation were outside the scope of macroeconomic policies, despite the fact that they could help to mitigate their negative impacts somewhat. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 99 |
several board members agreed that the 50bp hike option had the advantage of being the one expected by the market consensus and, therefore, would not come as a surprise. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 882 |
all this pointed to a scenario in which inflationary pressures were evidently higher than previously estimated. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 504 |
it was pointed out that the important thing was not the origin of the disruptions in the financial markets, but to analyze the way in which it could affect financing conditions in chile. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 810 |
in china, the recovery of activity had continued to lose traction, amid fundamentals that pointed to less dynamism going forward. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 452 |
one board member noted that one way of assessing the relevance of reducing the mpr at this meeting was to review whether or not the process of consolidation was taking place and/or whether the magnitude of the costs being caused by the process of lowering inflation exceeded expectations. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 602 |
in line with expectations, annual inflation had peaked in august, when the annual variation of the cpi had reached 14.1%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 631 |
the doubts regarding the projected evolution of the output gap and its implications for inflation and monetary policy were discussed. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 410 |
the international outlook was still evolving favorably, with global growth projections consolidating steadily. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 321 |
some participants added that while there was some degree of surprise about the pace of the economic recovery, the estimates of the current size of the gap and the evaluation of its implications for inflationary pressures were not very different from december’s scenario. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 28 |
this, coupled with the evolution of its other determinants, was behind the significant depreciation of the peso, showing greater than usual sensitivity. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 951 |
with respect to the december report, inflation had been somewhat below projections, mainly because of specific factors, such as lower inflation of some typically highly volatile services. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 630 |
in this context, a precautionary attitude would be advisable. | irrelevant | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 898 |
it could also be argued that the option to keep the mpr unchanged would allow collecting additional high-frequency information prior to taking this first step. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 456 |
while chile’s economic indicators were yet to reflect the effects of these disruptions, the progression of the virus in other countries pointed at significant impacts on the affected firms’ sales and cash flows. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 447 |
this process, however, had been accompanied by significant and prolonged episodes of violence, which had triggered major disruptions in the productive system, severely reducing activity and weakening employment. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 499 |
regarding qualitative information, credit conditions had tightened, as reflected in the bank credit survey of the fourth quarter of 2019, which reported that credit supply was perceived as more restricted in all portfolios, particularly in the consumer and large company segments, together with weaker demand, mainly for consumer credit. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 436 |
this, together with inflation expectations aligned with the 3% target, reduced the risks of greater inflationary persistence in the medium term as a result of the cost shock, which pulled down the balance of inflationary risks present at the previous meeting. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 772 |
last but not least, the prices of copper and other commodities had far exceeded projections. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 644 |
the different market expectations (i.e. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 213 |
one of them pointed out that, given the evolution of the macro scenario, this option was not consistent with the monetary policy path required for inflation to converge to the 3% target within two years. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 220 |
some board members noted that this option would be justified from a risk management perspective, especially as long as core inflation remained below the tolerance range and low inflation rates were expected for a significant period of time. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 11 |
in this regard, it would be particularly relevant to review the impact that the covid-related credit lines with state guarantees would have, which at the time of the meeting -—-early may— had just begun operations, so information was yet to come to light. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 806 |
however, the risk of the possible consequences of high corporate indebtedness had risen. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 249 |
the full board agreed that the turning points of monetary policy would be based primarily on an assessment of the state of the economy and not on specific dates. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 482 |
one was the magnitude of the contribution of fiscal expansion to the cycle, as there could be tensions between short-term needs and medium- term sustainability of the fiscal accounts. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,020 | 389 |
the outlook for global growth had deteriorated, amid still unfavorable conditions, especially for emerging economies. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 746 |
mpr expectations for the end of this year stood at 8% in the case of the ees and at 8.25% according to the fts. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 121 |
as for inflation expectations two years ahead, both our economic expectations survey (eee) and financial traders survey (eof) stood at 3%. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 952 |
inflation expectations two years ahead remained between 2.8% and 3%. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 231 |
all five board members agreed that the new combination of precedents justified the need to increase the monetary stimulus. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 129 |
in this scenario, doubts about when the fed would begin reducing the interest rates were the main factor behind the movements of global financial markets. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,024 | 36 |
this suggested that the mpr would be kept at its minimum level over most of the two-year monetary policy horizon, and that unconventional measures would remain in effect. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 76 |
this occurred in a context where, despite no major surprises in u.s. activity, the markets had intensified their perception that the u.s. economy could slow down more rapidly. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 41 |
in this context, the main central banks had attenuated the restrictive character of their monetary policy communication. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 479 |
all this occurred within the context of still pessimistic household and business confidence. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 387 |
at the same time, beyond the magnitude of the mpr cut at this meeting, the change was consistent with the expectations of the markets, which also saw the need to lower the mpr. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 96 |
the median of the financial traders survey (fts) remained around 3.5% for the third month in a row, while 90% of the respondents expected inflation to be higher than 3%. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 463 |
in terms of activity, the conjunctural data and economic outlook of the eurozone were still moderating and posting lower figures than the market expected, raising doubts going forward. | dovish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 360 |
this responded largely to trade tensions and the appreciation of the dollar, in a context in which china’s activity figures had been weaker at the margin. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 609 |
this, it was concluded, was fully consistent with the idea that, even in a context of gradual normalization, monetary policy would continue to accompany the recovery of the economy, anticipating that the mpr would be below its neutral value throughout the complete policy horizon of two years. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 618 |
for this year, activity was expected to grow between -0.5% and 0.25%. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 871 |
this was accompanied by a series of fiscal measures and the implementation of a third withdrawal of pension savings. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 971 |
on the one hand, there was the risk of a more abrupt deterioration of the external scenario, with greater implications for chile. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 82 |
nominal and uf-indexed 2-year bonds had accumulated significant increases, i.e., more than 70 bp in indexed ones since the previous meeting, where the discussion around a possible transitory reduction of the vat was among the main factors behind the correction. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 3 |
this had triggered episodes of risk aversion with the consequent reshuffling of investment portfolios. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 552 |
in any case, the risks for inflation were perceived as unbiased, as the costs of inflation deviating above or below its convergence trajectory were assumed to be symmetrical. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 355 |
despite the positive surprise on the mining side, activity in all other sectors had continued to fall at a gradual pace, consistent with what was anticipated in the june report. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 19 |
that situation —where the u.s. economy was not performing as well as expected and the fed was aggressively cutting interest rates— would be a relatively disinflationary medium-term scenario for chile. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 551 |
governor marcel, vice-governor vial and board members garcía, costa and naudon voted for reducing the mpr by 50 basis points, to 2%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 557 |
it was worth noting that, as expected, part of the higher growth early in the year had come from supply factors that had been reversing. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 468 |
the risk premiums had receded, while the dollar had tended to weaken against other currencies. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 474 |
the decline in annual inflation was positive news. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 343 |
however, some early indicators and qualitative background suggested downside risks for the coming months. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 228 |
in latin america, despite rather improved confidence indicators in the margin, many economies had seen weak performance in the early part of the second quarter, as was evident in monthly activity figures. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 332 |
in this scenario, the impulse that the chilean economy would receive from abroad was expected to remain moderate, with weak world growth prospects for both this year and next. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 2 |
attention was drawn to the context of much greater uncertainty, which had become persistent and was having negative consequences on investment, trade and other important macro variables. | dovish | not forward looking | uncertain | 2,019 | 166 |
regarding the 125-bp and 175-bp options, there was agreement among the board members that both had disadvantages, particularly the former. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 641 |
world growth projections showed minor changes, although it was still necessary to bear in mind that several economies were performing somewhat better than expected. | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 484 |
however, it was also apparent that there were areas of the economy that had not yet been reached by credit or economic stimuli that matched the scale of their needs. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 651 |
externally, the main development since the last report had been the escalating conflict between the united states and its main trading partners, which had resulted in increased risk aversion, affecting the valuation of assets, currencies and commodities, as well as chile’s terms of trade, in a context of marked deterioration of global trade figures. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 782 |
in this scenario, all the board members considered 50bp and 75bp cuts to be plausible options. | dovish | forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 854 |
this was associated with, among other factors, the dynamic performance of the u.s. economy. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 902 |
nonetheless, it agreed to assess a possible extension and changes in access parameters that would facilitate its use to respond to the needs of the economy at the present stage | neutral | forward looking | certain | 2,020 | 1 |
this considered that, on average, the economy would grow above potential during the period 2018-2020. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 923 |
by contrast, housing construction and the salmon industry posted good results. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 958 |
the board agreed that the risks to the evolution of inflation were still significant and their possible materialization was particularly relevant in a context in which both the annual change in the cpi and its outlook were already high. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,022 | 809 |
plus, the announcements of new fiscal packages, particularly in the united states, which had driven stock market hikes globally, increases in long-term interest rates in developed economies, capital inflows to emerging economies and commodity price rises. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 180 |
it was mentioned that there could be risk factors associated with the expected trajectories of monetary policy in chile and the u.s. and the reduced presence of some important players in the forex market. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,023 | 874 |
the main arguments in favor and against of each of these options were the following: are herein referred to as males, including female member ms. rosanna costa. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 346 |
many of them responded that 2018 had closed with better results than in previous years, although less than they initially expected. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 856 |
in latin america, inflation seemed to have reached its peak in most countries, and some central banks had continued to raise their benchmark rates. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,023 | 765 |
meanwhile, the reaction of inflation expectations and interest rates showed that the markets had grasped the specific origin of the inflationary shock and its transitory nature. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 975 |
the surveys to purchasing managers (pmi) pointed to significant disparity in manufacturing and services that anticipated a favorable performance in the us and some moderation in the eurozone, but with activity growth still above potential. | hawkish | forward looking | certain | 2,018 | 643 |
the information submitted to the board and the analysis thereof are contained in the march monetary policy report. | irrelevant | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 800 |
this could occur due to the importance of energy as a production input or due to the indexation processes to which the economy was subject. | neutral | not forward looking | certain | 2,024 | 188 |
in addition, it provided room for a timely reaction in case some of the risk scenarios came true. | neutral | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 671 |
in this context, the evolution of macroeconomic conditions made it necessary to reduce the monetary stimulus, a process that the board estimated it would continue to undertake gradually and cautiously, while the uncertainties coming from the external scenario were still high. | hawkish | forward looking | uncertain | 2,018 | 471 |
this recovery had been made possible by the adaptive capacity of businesses and individuals and the great progress made in the vaccination campaign, which had contributed to a significant process of opening up. | hawkish | not forward looking | certain | 2,021 | 533 |
in it, it was noted that since the previous report, both headline and core inflation had remained around 2%, within a context where the macroeconomic outlook had weakened, increasing the risks concerning the timely convergence of inflation to 3%. | dovish | not forward looking | certain | 2,019 | 113 |
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