Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_chile

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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they also agreed that a clearer assessment of these issues should be made as the bill advanced in its legislative process, which together with the fine-tuning of the diagnosis on the economy’s evolution would be priority tasks until the september monetary policy report.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
511
this was reflected in the upward revision to the growth projection for 2021, which, despite its magnitude, was not enough to absorb the full expansion of domestic demand and yielded the way for the current account to move from a surplus of 1.5% of gdp in 2020 to a deficit of slightly more than 2% of gdp in 2021.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
738
at the same time, there were also very significant external risks.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
307
the capital goods survey showed an increase in major projects for this and next year, with mining projects standing out.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
83
measured by the new benchmark cpi calculated by the ine, inflation was significantly below the forecast.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
488
one participant noted the risks posed by the oil price rise to an economy such as chile, which is a net importer.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
566
there was agreement that the two most important developments in the projection scenario suggested a path for the nominal mpr somewhat above that considered in march, as contained in the june ipom.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
317
march inflation had been 0.2%, slightly below market expectations (by around one tenth of a point).
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
244
in several regions, the substantial supply of labor was worth noting, supported by the presence of foreign labor.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
713
in addition, market expectations showed downward adjustments in the short term, while remaining in the two-year 3% target.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
403
the discussion turned to the uncertainty surrounding the evaluation of structural parameters that sustained monetary policy (i.e.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
357
therefore, lowering the mpr by 50 bp only reinforced the previous message, which the market had made its own after the publication of the report.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
674
in this context, a major challenge would be to maintain the impulse of monetary and fiscal policy, as well as the ability to safeguard financial stability, until the economy was able to achieve a self-sustained growth rate, reducing the gaps and frictions that still remained.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
119
for this reason, there was no conclusive information that would allow judging that the beginning of a potential cycle adjustment in the labor market was underway.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
72
these changes were especially important given the risks characteristic of today’s world economy and the hypotheses that had been incorporated into the projections of the domestic scenario.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
264
the central bank of japan, in its latest statement, had ceased to mention that inflation would reach the target in 2019.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
914
governments, meanwhile, continued to implement substantial spending packages, often focusing on protecting the workers and sectors most affected by the current contingency.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
359
if this were compounded by the greater stability of long-term interest rates, the outlook for global financial conditions was very positive.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
169
consumer confidence and business and investor expectations had continued to worsen, amid russia’s protracted invasion of ukraine.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
560
inflation levels remained well above target and the central scenario projections of this report exceeded those of the previous one.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
531
in june, headline inflation had been in line with forecasts in the last ipom.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
174
in fact, both activity and inflation were somewhat higher than expected in december, while inflationary pressures stemming from abroad had increased.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
225
the entire board agreed on the need to safeguard the proper functioning of the monetary policy pass-through channels, so the mpr reduction should be accompanied by non-traditional measures to support liquidity and boost credit.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
575
in the eurozone, germany again stood out among the most hurt, with further worsening exports data.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
243
in the corporate bond market, in both the financial sector and the rest of the companies, there were fewer transactions and lower amounts traded, with spreads fairly constant.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
589
in this context, stock market indexes rose slightly further in most countries.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
556
the details of the central scenario, sensitivities, risks and future evolution of the mpr were included in the september report, which served as the basis for the discussion at this meeting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
677
it was affecting consumer and business confidence, financial asset prices and the value of the dollar, signaling a perception that negative effects would last longer.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
416
until then, the economy had behaved in line with projections in the september report, with annual gdp growth at 3.3% in the third quarter and an annual cpiefe variation of around 2%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
893
among other factors, this was explained by the reduction in employment and the increase in the labor force.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
872
as global inflation was still increasing central banks had either continued to raise their benchmark rates or signaled a faster hike if the rising inflation proved more persistent.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
883
the discussion focused on the behavior of shorter-term uf-denominated interest rates —typically more closely linked to the business cycle—, which had risen significantly in recent months, the origin of which was unclear, but which could end up having a significant impact on the economy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
173
the macroeconomic scenario continued to evolve driven by the spread of covid-19 and the containment measures needed to protect the populations’ health.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
120
it was also noted that, although a mild revision to world growth could be good news for emerging economies, as it would imply that the main central banks would adopt more expansionary monetary policies, probably the effect of the interest rate decrease would be lower than in other circumstances.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
261
its contents show that, in line with forecasts, domestic economic activity recovered its growth pace after taking a pause in the third quarter of 2018.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
304
one board member agreed that it was difficult to accurately measure the magnitude of the additional impulse, but said that there were several metrics that could shed some light, such as the covid loans’ outstanding balance that was still available and needed, the sensitivity of the total commercial credit stock to the flow linked to the fcic, or the exercises regarding the financing needs of the corporate sector.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
913
in chile, although infections had declined and mobility had increased since mid-year, improvements in activity had been slower than expected in september.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
512
if this increase in credit were to occur, it would limit the destruction of jobs, resulting in a smoother reactivation of the economy that would allow inflationary convergence and would prevent some adverse effects on the financial system that could aggravate the costs of the pandemic.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
973
all this certainly contributed to explaining the upward surprises in headline inflation and why core inflation had persisted between 10.5% and 11% in annual terms for several months.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
127
the latter had continued to put pressure on supply chains, which reinforced the view that their impact would last longer than previously expected.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
313
although the decline in inflation was a global phenomenon, its outlook differed from one country to another.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
841
in pesos, this cost had risen, influenced by adjustments in monetary policy expectations.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
901
bank credit continued to show poor dynamism.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
349
in addition, the fed’s rate hike had been quite aggressive, and doubts as to how this process would continue introduced an additional degree of sensitivity with respect to the bank’s own decisions and their effects on market financial variables.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
830
at the same time, the board decided to add an extra, unconventional boost of up to 10% of gdp by means of two measures.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
156
the five board members agreed that the economic scenario posed significant risks.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
723
the change in perspectives on the private consumption side was stressed.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
322
in general, all sectors were performing in line with expectations, reflecting the heterogeneity that had been the trend in recent months.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
687
in this context, the board members coincided that the options of raising the mpr by 100 or 125 bp seemed to be the most appropriate.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
376
in this context, consumer (ipec) and business (imce) expectations were still on the pessimistic side, but with some improvement.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
573
this continued to respond to the abundant household liquidity and advances in the reopening of the economy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
385
also, the possible changes associated to the new cpi basket had to be considered.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
827
in latin america, with some exceptions, several countries showed increased inflation, although no big changes in monetary policy in the margin.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
755
as of december, in real terms, the annual growth of consumer loans remained negative (-6.7%) despite continuing to rise, for mortgage loans — — it had not changed much (5.9%) and for commercial loans it had resumed positive values (2%).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
721
the real exchange rate (rer), using the 1986=100 base measurement, was estimated to have approached 89 in april and in the first days of may, a level similar to those of the previous meeting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
370
all five board members agreed that, given the macroeconomic context caused by the pandemic, there was no other option than reinforcing the message that monetary policy would remain highly expansionary for a prolonged period of time.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
600
the movements in the local financial market remained aligned with expectations that monetary policy would become less contractionary, in a context where global markets had reflected a greater appetite for risk, with a global depreciation of the dollar, an increase in stock markets and a compression of risk premiums.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
255
on the other hand, news about inflation was not encouraging either.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
230
business and consumer expectations had continued to recover, although still on pessimistic territory.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
711
the rise in covid-19 infections had been significant in many countries, pushing some of them to new records.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
877
in particular, there was an agreement that the weaker demand and supply of commercial credit that had been observed in recent months reflected the fact that the simple availability of new credit for working capital would no longer be enough to meet the needs of companies.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
964
according to one board member, on this occasion the option had more weight and validity because the news of lower short-term inflation came despite the fact that the economy had been growing more strongly for some quarters.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
771
also, that other sources of information, delivered with lags, had still not shown such behavior, so it was necessary to wait for more data to become available.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
460
the central scenario of the september monetary policy report considered that our trading partners would grow by an average of 2.6% in 2022 and 2023, i.e., less than expected in the previous report.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,022
111
they added that the sectors where one could assume greater participation of these groups were not those that showed the greatest changes in wage expansion.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
122
by sectors, trade continued to lead as the best performer.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
345
in addition, these projections were shared by the vast majority of market agents, as was visible, for example, in the economic expectations survey (ees).
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
634
the 10-year nominal interest rate had exceeded 6.5%, a rate unseen in more than a decade.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
692
the mixed signals coming from the labor market were also discussed.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
22
in the eurozone, different expectations measures backed the region’s weak outlook, especially those more closely linked to the tradable sector, coinciding with the worsening of exports from these economies.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
780
in this context, mpr expectations in the surveys (ees and fts) showed increases of 25 to 50 pb one year ahead, while the prices of financial assets pointed to a rise of around 100 pb.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
668
the information gathered up to the time of the meeting in the context of the business perceptions report (ipn) also indicated that activity had increased, which also resulted in a more positive outlook for 2021.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
994
in this context, two-year inflation expectations had remained at 3% for several quarters.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
443
the data showed that investment flows from non-residents were still on positive ground and recent bond issues abroad by both the government and companies had been successful, with no big increases in risk premiums.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
267
activity’s performance was being driven by investment.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
701
in fact, an evaluation of the state of the gaps showed them to be bigger in the sectors linked to goods consumption.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
926
the services component continued to be more stable.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
170
they also agreed that the decision to hold the mpr at 1.75% dominated every other option.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
272
just as it had been argued in the monetary policy report, the complex external scenario was already having an impact on chile, with opposing effects on exports and capital inflows, while the copper price had remained fairly stable.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
65
the board recalled that during the last several meetings a clear message had been delivered regarding the future evolution of the monetary policy rate (mpr), that was, that the rate would be maintained at 11.25% until the state of the macroeconomy indicated that the convergence of inflation to 3% had been consolidated.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
151
are herein referred to as males, including female member ms. rosanna costa.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,018
756
thereafter, the stock would be gradually reduced as the assets in the portfolio matured.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
939
meanwhile, concerns about europe had resurfaced, both because of brexit-related difficulties and because of greater political uncertainty in the region.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
922
regarding external developments, in the immediate future, an inflationary impact was to be expected due to the price rise of some commodities and the higher exchange rate.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
451
there were also differences across multiple sources of information.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,021
391
it was added that, beyond the bank’s active response to the strong inflationary outbreak, it was evident that inflation was still high and that its local drivers, particularly consumption, was yet to show clear signs of normalization, beyond the fact that investment showed a clear weakness.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,022
204
on the other hand, fourth-quarter exports had fallen in annual terms, mainly due to supply-side factors that had affected industrial and mining shipments, while agricultural shipments had risen.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
229
all five board members agreed that, given the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and related risks, the mpr needed to move towards a more restrictive level, as reflected in the mpr corridor depicted in the december mp report.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
299
in any case, toward the end of the quarter some sectors had surprised positively, such as manufacturing and retail, pointing to some stabilization of the chinese economy.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
276
in the weeks following the december report, progress had been made on the legislative agenda, both on political and economic issues, and even on issues related to the protection of public order.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
486
in any case, the market had already priced in several additional mpr cuts than expected in the december mp report, which had shifted the rate curve in the appropriate direction given the changed scenario.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
534
on one hand, broadly speaking, the macroeconomic scenario was aligning itself with the assumptions in the december report.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
978
meanwhile, the possible negative readings that a mpr cut at this meeting could open also had to be considered, especially if it was interpreted as a worsening in the bank’s vision of growth.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
884
they also agreed that the wisest decision was to bring the policy rate to its technical minimum of 0.5%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
541
with this information, the markets’ growth expectations, as measured by the economic expectations survey, were consolidated at 4% for 2018, while for this year and the next they were at 3.6% and 3.5%, respectively, almost unchanged since the close of the december report.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
983
this, coupled with the announcement of the employment subsidy program, somehow mitigated the risk of a further worsening of the labor market.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
969
regarding the magnitude of the new monetary stimulus, all the board members agreed that some figure of up to 10% of gdp seemed consistent with what the economy needed to navigate this complex period, to allow inflation to converge to the target and to ensure financial stability.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
972
summing up, all the board members agreed that either option would be a surprise and there was no clear-cut reason indicating the convenience of making a gradual adjustment instead of doing it in one take, while including more information in the statement and in the understanding that the report’s release would mitigate any possible misinterpretation.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
980
in the fixed-income segment, the 10-year nominal rate had risen by 30 to 40 basis points (bp) more than its developed-economy counterparts since the beginning of march.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
305
in short, this option was the most appropriate if the aim was to anticipate the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus and to gain room in the face of sensitive scenarios of higher inflation.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
348