Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_chile

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
sentences
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999
it was added that, because most of the mpr adjustments had been made in the first part of the year, it was possible to monitor the evolution of the scenario.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
829
although this latter risk was nothing new, it presented different dimensions that were not necessarily independent of each other.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
927
going forward, the evolution of inflation remained exposed to opposing forces, whose relative impact was still uncertain.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
550
real consumer and commercial loans again showed annual contraction rates, which in april were at –2.1% and –5.3%, respectively.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
455
the rapid evolution of the macroeconomic scenario, inflation expectations and sensitivity scenarios associated with higher price pressures, set the stage for the central bank to act promptly to ensure the convergence of inflation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
766
on the other hand, although the evolution of the external scenario caused some concern, it was important to draw a line between the baseline scenario and its implications for monetary policy decisions and the risk factors.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
574
inflation expectations showed no big change.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
421
on the other hand, there was progress in the successive openings in several economies, with numbers that confirmed this gradual recovery in line with projections or even with some positive surprises.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
691
it was noted that the evolution of inflation was consistent with the gradual closing of gaps in the economy and that going forward the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus needed restructuring in proper balance with the closing of these capacities.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
690
a second example was taken from mid-2021, at the start of an mpr hike cycle, when there was also considerable debate regarding its pertinence and the pace of the hikes.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
650
all in all, it was emphasized that this issue should remain under close scrutiny.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
890
governor marcel, vice-governor vial, and board members garcía, naudon, and costa voted in favor of raising the mpr by 125 basis points, to 4%.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
954
for this reason, the board would take every action necessary to meet this objective.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,022
585
beyond some limited variations in the margin, the expectations of persons (ipec) and firms (imce) lingered in pessimistic territory.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,024
519
moreover, the revisions to the national accounts showed that the composition of domestic demand was more inflationary than expected, with consumption much higher and investment stagnant for several quarters.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
520
looking ahead, medium-term inflationary pressures were still expected to be contained, in line with a greater widening of activity gaps as a result of the sanitary emergency, in addition to the fall in oil prices observed since the beginning of the year.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
10
on the supply side, credit constraints had eased for large companies while mortgage lending conditions had tightened somewhat.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
206
regarding the external scenario, it was agreed that it offered no major novelties in its evolution.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
819
some board members considered that the 75bp option was plausible, because it was within the upper range of market expectations and was evaluated in a context in which monetary policy had already made a very significant adjustment, while activity and demand were showing the expected weakness, as evidenced by the evolution of consumption, investment, and real wages.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
753
business expectations (imce) continued to reflect the prospect of cost increases going forward.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,021
491
thus, any shock entailing a greater delay in the convergence of inflation would make it difficult to meet the target within the policy horizon and would require sharper cuts to the mpr in the future.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
543
in particular, he noted that the bank had adopted extraordinary measures of liquidity provision and had begun a foreign exchange intervention that limited —especially the latter— the countercyclical action that in principle could be expected from monetary policy.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
666
headline inflation had risen above forecasts in the last mp report, standing at 5.3% annually at september.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
308
the ipsa accumulated slim gains and the sovereign risk premium (cds) showed some decline.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
171
among other things, the increase in the cost of medium and long-term financing for all types of agents, the fall of the stock market and the depreciation of the peso drew special attention.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
45
given the current monetary policy constraints, this board member found it doubtful that such a move would be seen as a relaxation of monetary policy.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
699
both the ees and the fts anticipated a reduction of 75 basis points (bp) in the monetary policy rate (mpr) for this meeting.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
139
on the other, the data on pension-fund contributors showed that formal salaried employment had made a full recovery.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
216
regarding trade, a large number of respondents reported inventory shortages, increased demand and price hikes.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
366
he further noted that although this corridor was created to factor in the uncertainty about the future evolution of the mpr, on this occasion he could ascertain that that it would remain at its technical minimum for several quarters.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
176
in investment, survey information (cbc), capital goods imports and expectations continued to suggest that, beyond the positive surprise of the third quarter, investment would be adjusting downwards.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
920
the board decided, with the votes of governor marcel, vice-governor vial, and board members garcía, costa and naudon, to keep the monetary policy interest rate at 2.5%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
258
all the board members agreed that this policy response should contemplate extending the current monetary stimulus and taking measures to safeguard the normal functioning of the credit markets and the effective transmission of the greater monetary impulse.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
49
these results were explained by a specific set of elements, including the depreciation of the peso, external price increases and some local inflation-based repricing.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
433
food prices had shown mixed movements.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
930
in addition, annual employment growth continued to be almost entirely accounted for by informal wage earners.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
946
thus, part of this effect would be transmitted to the external sector via imports.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,024
344
several also pointed to a reduction in labor income resulting from shorter working hours, no overtime, reduced sales commissions, elimination of benefits and wage adjustments, among others.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
936
cpi without volatiles) had continued to hover at around 3%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
824
regarding the option to maintain the policy rate unchanged it was mentioned that it could send the wrong signal about the risks that the board was analyzing.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
741
however, the latest information known since then had prompted a change in this assessment.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
999
while various sources of information suggested that businesses had sufficient margins to accommodate a rise in imported costs, especially in a context of what they described as lower demand, goods inflation was showing rapid declines in several economies, reflecting the aforementioned global prices factor.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
855
the business perceptions report continued to show positive expectations for this year according to the bulk of opinions, especially towards the second half, beyond the disparity of businesses’ actual results.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
751
it was added that this also indicated that the economy’s adjustment was progressing in line with expectations, although this was a matter that needed to continue to be carefully monitored.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
124
if it proved persistent in time, it could erode their solvency position, in particular that of smes, which would adversely affect economic activity and the labor market.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
242
this was especially complex in a context where the political cycle was introducing more uncertainty about the future evolution of the economy, particularly because of its impact on investment.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
161
in seasonally adjusted terms, it had risen 2.6% over its april value, showing growth in most economic sectors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
42
in the financial markets, the exchange rate had fallen in recent weeks, but its expected trajectory was not perceived to be very different from the one foreseen in the report.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
621
this was related, in their opinion, to fear of contagion, increased income support measures including pension savings withdrawals.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
524
the imacec data for november showed the impact of specific supply-related factors -in sectors such as fishing and mining-, as well as unexpected and transitory disruptions in manufacturing output.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
212
there were risk scenarios in which the international situation could deteriorate abruptly and sharply.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
718
in others, respondents pointed out that the highly volatile exchange rate had led them to postpone adjustments to final prices, and that the pass-through could begin to occur as the large inventories were used up.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
262
that is, in recent months annual cpi inflation had remained around 2%, both in its headline and core measures.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
91
activity had grown well above estimates.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
813
containing inflationary pressures would require withdrawing the domestic demand stimulus measures deployed during the crisis.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
401
there was consensus in the board that the options of reducing the mp by 75 or 100bp seemed the most appropriate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
761
household spending on non-durable goods and services had declined, breaking the upward trend of previous quarters.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
579
against this backdrop, the region’s confidence indicators had seen some marginal improvement.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
991
all the board members agreed that the macroeconomic scenario had evolved as foreseen in march.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
13
in addition, he agreed on the difficulties in forecasting or estimating the size of the additional monetary stimulus that would be required without a more detailed analysis of the mediumterm impacts of the latest news.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
583
the aim was to limit the negative impact on the situation of firms, households and financial institutions and to underpin the recovery in the second half of the year.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,020
458
this figure was in line with forecasts in the june report, with persistently weak areas more closely related to services, in a context of low inflationary pressures due to the abrupt widening of the activity gap.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
966
all this was consistent with the inflationary pressures affecting each one.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
673
this suggested, in part, that agents had adapted better to the sanitary context, which was also expected to be reflected in a lower impact of the quarantines in april and may, which was already evident in the data on mobility, electricity generation and sales with digital invoices and receipts.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
73
some data suggested that the greater dynamism of these items seemed to be mainly concentrated in mining.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,018
508
the board recalled that in the latest meeting they had delivered an unequivocal message regarding the future evolution of the monetary policy rate.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
592
several board members recalled that the report’s central scenario assumed that economic activity would be below potential gdp for several quarters.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
938
this report noted that the chilean economy had been advancing steadily in its recovery process after the massive shock caused by the pandemic.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
581
the activity gap, far from closing, as would be expected in an ongoing adjustment process, was wider than had been expected in late 2022 and early 2023.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
528
it had the advantage of clearly stating that, despite how important the shock on inflation was, it was transitory, and monetary policy could accommodate it by further reducing the mpr in the quarters ahead.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
202
he concluded by noting that the cost of making mistakes in this sense could be high, since it would imply that within a few months a much more steep path of future rates would have to be communicated.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
232
there was agreement among the participants that the incoming figures since the publication of the september monetary policy report were consistent with the baseline scenario in it and with the monetary policy orientation communicated at the time.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
777
on the other hand, the fall in the stock of consumer loans was consistent with the increase in household liquidity provided by pension fund withdrawals and transfers from the treasury.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
138
the projections in the central scenario of the september mp report contained few changes with respect to june’s.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
477
the mortgage segment had decelerated its real annual growth from 8.8% to 7.8%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
54
this process would occur in large part through the adjustment of private consumption and investment, in a context where the vision of a significant contraction in fiscal spending was maintained.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
24
among the multilateral measures, the mer-5 showed a slightly lower rise than the exchange rate, while the mer and mer-x showed more limited movements.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
427
in the emerging economies, china’s gdp had closed 2019 with a 6.1% expansion, in line with market expectations, while short-term activity data showed an acceleration in december from the previous month, including figures from the external sector.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
774
all five board members agreed that the recent evolution of the economy pointed in the required direction.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
925
external financial markets had reduced their appetite for risk, considering, mainly, the aforementioned elements, doubts that had also triggered a higher degree of volatility in the markets recently.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
107
at the local level, the outlook was somewhat more positive for investment, reflecting that, for now, the greater global uncertainty had not permeated the local economy so much.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
297
meanwhile, in the eurozone it had been announced that the monetary policy framework would be revised during 2020, which could result in an extension of the current mandate of the european central bank.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,020
143
accordingly, labor income showed a strong recovery from year-before levels.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
153
thus, although with limited movements overall, in the last month several economies had exhibited improvements in their stock markets, spreads and currencies, while a large part of long-term interest rates had declined.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,020
759
bank lending remained subdued in the various segments, with financing conditions perceived to be tighter and demand for new loans lower, according to the second-quarter bank lending survey.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
640
gross fixed capital formation (gfcf) had stabilized after the sharp drop of the second half of last year.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
818
activity and demand were still in their adjustment process after the strong imbalances accumulated in 2021, with second-quarter data showing declines in both investment and consumption.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
20
at the time —it was recalled— there was debate on whether there was a very strong trade-off between the greater monetary impulse that was necessary in the new macroeconomic scenario and the problems that could endanger the stability of the financial markets.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,020
548
the postponement of the interest rate cut in the us and the slower reductions central banks elsewhere had affected chile's interest rate differential with other economies.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
284
possible new outbreaks or progress in vaccination—, the fear of new violence episodes as manifested in some surveys, together with financial difficulties in some companies.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
638
the financial markets had been strained by sharp price movements, which in some cases had gone beyond what one would expect given the country risk.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
394
to this end, while maintaining the residual financial conditions of the fcic 2, it would be necessary to adjust the access conditions, incorporating the new definitions of fogape, focusing on gross flows —as the aim was not necessarily to increase the companies’ leverage— and extend collaterals.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
425
in their opinion, one should not lose sight of the fact that inflation was still high and the reduction in the core was less marked, suggesting that inflationary pressures had not yet dissipated to a significant degree.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
347
on the other hand, it called for an assessment of the level of pass-through of the peso depreciation of the last few months and the role played by external prices, in a context of a weaker chinese economy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,024
57
about the external front, it was said that, far from being resolved, commercial conflicts and political uncertainty in the main economies of the world had intensified and extended into new dimensions of economic relations across countries.
neutral
not forward looking
uncertain
2,019
182
this increase was largely explained by a decompression of term premia, associated partly with a market reassessment of the u.s. fiscal outlook.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
974
all five board members agreed that the scenario where the country was operating was one of seldom seen, extraordinarily high, uncertainty that was sweeping through the real economy and the financial system.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,020
757
in any case, they stressed the improvements in sanitary indicators and the possibility that stricter containment measures might be relaxed over a shorter time horizon, something that was not thought possible just a few weeks back.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,020
183
the most recent activity and spending data had brought positive surprises, while measures to support its real-estate sector seemed to have reduced the likelihood of a severe contraction in the near future.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
319
they all agreed that the option to boost the monetary stimulus was no longer relevant, since the downside risks to the convergence of inflation —which had been a topic of concern in recent quarters— had lost strength.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
835